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The rupee fell 7 paise to trade at 84.47 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday weighed down by a muted trend in domestic equities and strength of the American currency in the overseas markets. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said the latest <keyword id="20064878" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Open-Market-Committee" source="keywords">Federal Open Market Committee</keyword> (FOMC) minutes reveal a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's outlook. The Fed is likely to put downward pressure on short-term interest rates, reducing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets and contributing to the decline in the Dollar Index. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.45 and moved in a tight range and touched 84.47 against the greenback, registering a fall of 7 paise over its previous close. On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated by 11 paise to close at 84.40 against the US dollar. "The 84.50 level remains a strong support for the USD/INR pair. <keyword id="23456490" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-interventions" source="keywords">RBI interventions</keyword>, coupled with anticipated capital inflows -- such as Godrej Properties' Rs 4,000 crore QIP and Univest's USD 16 million capital raise -- are expected to support the rupee further," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the USD/INR pair is likely to encounter resistance near the 84.50 mark, with expectations of trading within the 83.80 to 84.50 range, showing a slight downward bias. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.14 per cent at 106.22. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.18 per cent to USD 72.70 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 68.21 points or 0.09 per cent to 80,302.29 in morning trade, while Nifty was up 34.20 points or 0.14 per cent to 24,309.10 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) infused Rs 7.78 crore in the capital markets on a net basis on Wednesday, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/honda-activa-e-and-qc1-electric-scooters-unveiled-in-india-to-go-on-sale-in-2025/articleshow/115725242.cms" target="_self"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/honda-activa-e-and-qc1-electric-scooters-unveiled-in-india-to-go-on-sale-in-2025/articleshow/115725242.cms" target="_self">Honda Activa e and QC1 electric scooters unveiled in India, to go on sale in 2025</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-pc-market-reaches-new-high-with-4-49-million-shipments-in-q3-2024/articleshow/115719599.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-pc-market-reaches-new-high-with-4-49-million-shipments-in-q3-2024/articleshow/115719599.cms" target="_blank">India’s PC market reaches new high with 4.49 million shipments in Q3 2024</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-gt-7-pro-with-snapdragon-8-elite-chipset-launched-starting-at-59999/articleshow/115689685.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-gt-7-pro-with-snapdragon-8-elite-chipset-launched-starting-at-59999/articleshow/115689685.cms" target="_blank">Realme GT 7 Pro with Snapdragon 8 Elite chipset launched starting at ₹59,999</a>

Rupee falls 7 paise to 84.47 against US dollar in early trade

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may begin lowering <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> around October, provided that external factors like weather conditions and international commodity prices do not cause any disruptions, the credit rating agency, Crisil said in its report. The credit rating agency further anticipated that it expects "two rate cuts this fiscal." It said that the decision of the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) decision to hold rates in its recent announcement was due to the elevated <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>. The climate conditions such as weather events are frequently changing and they need to be monitored. Going ahead, it anticipated that the macroeconomic environment would be better, creating a background for a rate cut. "The food challenge to a rate cut is expected to ease as agriculture prospects look better than last year. The monsoon has been above normal (7 per cent above the long period average as of August 7), and sowing has picked up across major foodgrains. As agriculture prospects become clearer by September, we expect it to pave the way for a rate cut," the S&amp;P's arm added in its report. In a move reflecting its cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBI has decided to keep the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent. The decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>, which remains above the RBI's target range. The central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 4 per cent target continues to face challenges due to ongoing food inflation and other economic factors. Noting a likely uptick in core inflation, the report added that factors such as international freight costs, geopolitical risks to crude oil prices, and hikes in domestic telecom tariffs could affect this indicator. Anticipating the growth, it added, "The pace of growth of the economy is expected to ease this year, with lower fiscal support as the government pursues <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword>." Announcing the MPC's decision on August 8, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das expected the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25. Governor Das emphasized that the RBI remains vigilant regarding inflationary pressures and will take necessary actions to maintain price stability while supporting the country's economic recovery. The MPC's decision reflects a balanced approach, aiming to control inflation without stifling growth. The adjustments in repo rate have a direct effect on <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and job creation. The lower interest rates tend to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper for businesses.

RBI expected to begin rate cuts in October, with two reductions this fiscal: Crisil

The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>), on Friday, left the key policy rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its monetary policy review for the seventh consecutive time, with the aim of keeping <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> in check and ensuring that the economy moves on a stable growth path. <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said that the decision was made with five of the six members of the <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) favouring no change in the <keyword id="43352" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="Orion">repo rate</keyword>. Das said the MPC decided to continue with the "withdrawal of accommodation" stance to control inflation. The RBI would continue with its disinflationary policy to ensure a stable growth path for the economy, he added. Das said that <keyword id="120452" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-inflation" source="Orion">food price inflation</keyword> continues to weigh on the trajectory going ahead. The Central bank last changed rates in February 2023, when the repo rate was hiked to 6.5 per cent. The RBI had in fact raised rates by 2.5 per cent between May 2022 and February 2023, after which they have been kept on hold to support economic growth despite inflationary pressures in the past. Repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI gives short-term loans to banks to enable them to meet their liquidity requirements. Inflation has now come down to around 5 per cent and is well below the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6 per cent, but the Central bank is determined to bring it down to its medium-term target of 4 per cent, which it considers ideal for stable growth in the economy. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has stated several times that although inflation has been moderating, unless it falls to 4 per cent on a durable basis, the Central bank will not think of changing its policy focus. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at an RBI event on Monday that the Central bank must give top priority to growth but at the same time, focus on trust and stability. With India continuing to clock the fastest GDP growth among the major economies, the RBI has ample headroom to keep interest rates on hold in the near term without hurting growth. The Indian economy had thrown up a surprise 8.6 per cent growth in the October-December quarter driven by government expenditure on big-ticket infrastructure projects and strong domestic demand. The macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy have turned stronger with the fiscal deficit well in control following robust tax collections. The lower fiscal deficit will help control inflation as well as leave more money in the banking system for corporates to take loans for investments as the government needs to borrow less. Economic indicators for the January-March quarter have also been encouraging with exports growing at a decent pace despite the disruption in ship movement due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region. This has led to a decline in the current account deficit reflecting a stronger external balance of payments position.

RBI leaves key repo rate unchanged, focus on keeping inflation in check

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], April 5 (ANI): <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the outcome of the first <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) meeting of the financial year 2024-2025 on Friday. The central banking authority of India has kept the <keyword id="43352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="Orion">repo rate</keyword> unchanged for the last six consecutive MPC meetings and according to experts it is likely to maintain the status quo on interest rates this time too. The repo rate, is the interest rate at which banks draw funds from <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> to overcome short-term liquidity mismatches. Monetary Policy Committee was constituted under the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. MPC is a six-member committee comprising three members from RBI including Governor Shaktikanta Das and three members appointed by the Central government. The two-day review meeting of the MPC that commenced on April 3 concludes today. The RBI had maintained the status quo on policy rates and stances in its last review, which was held in February 2024. The decision however was not unanimous and one member has recommended a rate cut of 25 basis points and policy change stand to neutral. Since the last policy, rating agencies have revised India's growth forecast upwards. <keyword id="7706673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="Orion">Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword>, recently said that India will grow over 8 per cent in FY24. Inflation has dropped and has remained under the range of comfort zone. Consumer Price Index inflation was 5.1 per cent in February 2024, up from over 5.5 per cent in December 2023. The core CPI inflation, excluding food and beverages, was at a low of 3.5 per cent in February 2024. However, food inflation at above 7 per cent was a concern, but with a recent cut in the prices of petrol, diesel and LPG, it is likely to further fall in March and may come below 5 per cent. Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) recent announcement of above-normal temperatures during April-June may be a concern regarding rise in prices of vegetable, fruits and other perishable items. Also prices of rice, pulses have shown an upward trend which may be a concern for the MPC while taking a decision. However, softening prices of non-food items will give some relief to the committee. Generally, normal monsoons follow above normal temperatures, presuming that the average CPI inflation is likely to be in the RBI's comfort zone of 4-6 per cent in FY25. According to official data, retail inflation in India eased a tad in February to 5.09 per cent from 5.10 per cent the prior month, due to the deceleration of prices in all categories except food. Experts believe that the RBI is unlikely to change its policy stance before the August 2024 MPC review and any rate cut is unlikely before that. The US Fed has also recently indicated that it is not in a hurry to cut rates. All these suggest that the RBI, too, is unlikely to go for a rate cut before the October 2024 policy. The next MPC meetings of the RBI have been scheduled this year for June, August, October, December and February 2025.

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Rupee falls 7 paise to 84.47 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

PTI

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

ANI

RBI expected to begin rate cuts in October, with two reductions this fiscal: Crisil

ANI

RBI leaves key repo rate unchanged, focus on keeping inflation in check

IANS

RBI Monetary Policy Meeting: Central Bank likely to keep rates steady

ANI

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