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New Delhi: As the earnings season for the second quarter of FY25 unfolds, <keyword id="19959986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-sector-banks" source="keywords">public sector banks</keyword> (PSBs) are expected to see a slight dip in profits compared to the previous quarter, according to a report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword>. The report estimates that PSBs' Profit After Tax (PAT) will decline by 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), while showing a stronger year-on-year (YoY) growth of 17.2 per cent. "We estimate PSBs to report moderate <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword> of 17.2 pc YoY/ a decline of 0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report stated. The slower pace of growth can be attributed to flat net interest margins (NIMs) and a slight increase in loan loss provisions (LLP). The <keyword id="20171160" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Net-Interest-Income" source="keywords">Net Interest Income</keyword> (NII) for PSBs is expected to grow by around 6 per cent YoY, although interest margins are likely to remain under pressure. Despite these near-term challenges, the report suggests that public sector banks are on track to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 per cent between FY24 and FY26, pointing to sustained long-term growth. In the private sector banking space, the report forecasts mixed results for the same quarter. For private banks under the coverage, Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is expected to grow by 12 per cent YoY and 1 per cent QoQ. However, PAT growth is predicted to be more modest, increasing by 5 per cent YoY and 0.6 per cent QoQ. "For our private bank coverage universe, we estimate a PPoP growth of 12 pc YoY/1 pc QoQ and a PAT growth of 5 pc YoY/0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report added. Looking ahead, private sector banks are expected to experience steady profitability growth, with earnings projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4 per cent over FY24-FY26. Overall, while both public and private sector banks may face moderate growth in the second quarter due to margin pressures and higher provisions, their long-term earnings prospects remain positive. (ANI)

Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman holds a review meeting with heads of Public Sector Banks and Regional Rural Banks on Monday, the State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest report noted that the belief that the deposit growth in the banking sector is flagging is just a statistical myth. However, the report highlighted that, while it's true that <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword> has outpaced deposit growth in recent years, leading some to trumpet this as a sign of decelerating deposit activity, a deeper analysis reveals a different story. The report highlighted that in FY23, the banking sector, particularly All Scheduled Commercial Banks (ASCBs), registered the highest absolute growth in both deposits and credit since 1951-52. Deposits grew by an impressive Rs 15.7 lakh crore, while credit expanded by Rs 17.8 lakh crore, pushing the incremental Credit-Deposit (CD) Ratio to a staggering 113 per cent. The momentum continued into FY24, with deposits rising by Rs 24.3 lakh crore and credit by Rs 27.5 lakh crore. Despite the narrative suggesting a slowdown in deposit growth, the data tells us otherwise. Since FY22, incremental deposit growth has actually outpaced incremental credit growth, with deposits increasing by Rs 61 trillion compared to Rs 59 trillion in credit. "Decadal Deposits have expanded by a sharp 2.75 times, but Decadal credit expanded by 2.8 times since FY22, deposits expanded Rs 61 trillion vis-a-vis credit expansion at Rs 59 trillion," said the report. The report noted that the key issue at play here is not the quantum of deposits but the pricing. Historical trends have shown periods where credit and deposit growth diverge for 2 to 4 years. "The myth of a flagging deposit growth appears as just a statistical myth with credit growth outpacing deposit growth being tom-tommed as a deceleration in deposit growth" said the report. According to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) study, as of June 2024, we are in the 26th month of this divergence, with predictions indicating that the cycle could end between June and October 2025. "The end of the divergence cycle could be June 2025 -October 2025" the report noted. The report also added that once this divergence ends, deposit growth is expected to pick up, while credit growth could slow significantly, signaling the beginning of a rate reversal cycle and a potential economic slowdown. Another noteworthy trend in the banking system is the decline in CASA (Current Account Savings Account) deposits. The report stated that the CASA deposits fell to 41.0 per cent in FY24 from 43.5 per cent in FY23, largely due to a decline in SB (Savings Bank) deposits. This decline, while somewhat aligned with pre-pandemic levels of 42 per cent, reflects a shift in how SB deposits are being used. Increasingly, SB deposits are being used primarily for transactional purposes, particularly UPI transactions, leading to greater movement across the banking system and raising concerns about the stability of SB deposits. Moreover, the rising returns on term deposits have been driving a significant compositional shift in bank deposits. The share of term deposits in total deposits has increased to 59.0 per cent in FY24 from 56.5 per cent in FY23, while the share of CASA deposits has continued to decline. The report said that this shift is a natural response to the increasing interest rate environment, as funds move from low-interest CASA accounts to higher-yielding time deposits. On an incremental basis, term deposits accounted for nearly 78 per cent of the total deposits in FY24, underscoring the impact of higher <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> on deposit behavior. In conclusion, while the myth of declining deposit growth may persist, the reality is more nuanced. Deposit growth remains strong, with term deposits taking a larger share of the pie as interest rates rise. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/google-pixel-9-pro-fold-launched-in-india-at-172999-but-you-cant-get-your-hands-on-it-right-now/articleshow/112517193.cms">Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold launched in India at ₹1,72,999, but you can’t get your hands on it right now</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/ipo-scam-two-victims-from-hyderabad-lose-over-11crore-in-fake-ipo-scams/articleshow/112488051.cms">IPO scam – Two victims from Hyderabad lose over ₹11 crore in fake IPO scams</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms">India’s wearables market decline for the first time as smartwatch shipments fall</a>

SBI report dismisses bank deposit concerns as a 'Statistical Myth'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia will resume public sector layoffs, affecting up to at least 40,000 workers, per Kommersant.</li><li>Layoffs were paused due to COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</li></ul>Russia is expected to lay off at least 40,000 government officials next year, according to a report by the Russian <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7296193?tg">Kommersant</a> newspaper.Russian President Vladimir Putin last month<a target="_blank" class="" href="http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/0001202410290050?index=1"> ordered regional branches of federal government agencies to cut staff by 10%</a> by July, per the publication.The layoffs were believed to be planned for much earlier but were put on hold for several years due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic.According to Kommersant, the cuts are designed to make the civil service more efficient and raise the salaries of existing staff.Russia's official wage statistics, published in January, showed wages in the private sector rose by 8% to 20% last year.The cuts would also allow more people to enter Russia's labor market which is experiencing a widespread shortage of workers amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.According to an estimate from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics, Russia was short a record 5 million workers at the end of 2023.Workers have been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-raises-mobilization-age-some-reservists-can-be-called-70-2023-7">pulled into the </a>Ukraine war or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/number-of-russians-fleeing-draft-bigger-1st-invasion-force-uk-2022-9">forced to flee</a> after Putin enacted a major mobilization to increase wartime recruitment.Russia has turned to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-making-labor-crisis-worse-sending-workers-to-war-ukraine-2023-11">migrant</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-worker-shortage-prison-labor-ukraine-war-putin-kremlin-2023-10">prison labor</a> to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its population problem, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">report</a> by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University.Last year, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned that continued <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-depleted-workforce-threatening-economic-growth-says-central-bank-2023-11-09/">workforce depletion</a> would threaten Russian economic growth.However, so far, Russia's economy has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">held up</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2"> partly because of its war spending</a>, which has boosted growth despite soaring <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">inflation</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">high interest rates</a>.Inflation<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/keypr/"> hit 9.8%</a> in September, and potatoes, which are a staple of Russian diets, saw a<a target="_blank" href="https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/172_08-11-2024.html"> 64% increase in price</a> this year.Russia is expected to spend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-defense-sector-on-overdrive-but-firms-warn-of-collapse-2024-11">$140 billion on its defense industry in 2024</a> and up to $145 billion in 2025, or 6.3% of its GDP.

Under strain from war, Russia plans a massive layoff in its public sector: report

Amid questions on the depleting <keyword id="20776807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="loan-to-deposit-ratio" source="keywords">loan-to-deposit ratio</keyword> in <keyword id="19895091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banks" source="keywords">Indian banks</keyword>, a recent report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword> suggests that the loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio is likely to subside on its own in the coming months. The debate on loan-to-deposit ratio (LD), particularly concerning sluggish <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> and potential risks to <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">financial stability</keyword> is raised by even the finance minister and the <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor" source="keywords">RBI governor</keyword>. However, the report notes that on closer examination, the situation may not be as alarming as it seems. As of 9th August, 2024 the Indian <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>'s loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio stood at 77.2 %, which is slightly below its recent peak of 78.2 % on 22nd March 2024, and its all-time high of 78.8 % in September 2013. The report stated that typically a rising LD ratio is indicative of a tightness in the banking sector, potentially indicating overheating. A lower LD indicates that the bank is aggressive in its credit disbursement practises, which could be risky. It highlighted that an analysis of the sector's transactions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), along with recent trends in the weighted average call rate (WACR), suggests that the current rise in the LD ratio does not indicate tightness, which is why there is no immediate cause of concern. In fact, the report added that the concern over weak deposit growth may be overstated. Historical data show that bank deposits grew at an average rate of 9.5 % during the pre-COVID period (January 2015 to February 2020) and 10.4 % in the post-COVID period (March 2020 to August 2024). Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also urged state-run banks to enhance deposit mobilization through attractive offers and focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Loan-to-deposit ratio pegs the total deposits received by the bank against the loans it has offered. It helps in understanding how liquid the bank is. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is a financial metric that compares a bank's total loans to its total deposits. It's used to assess a bank's liquidity and credit risk, and to inform lending and deposit-taking decisions The report said while the exact measures are unclear, the deposit growth could potentially be increased by making other asset classes less attractive through taxation or interest rates, or by boosting fiscal spending to increase net credit to the government. In its forecast, the report noted that private banks will witness a moderation in their <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>, while public sector banks will maintain a healthy credit growth rate. "Our analysis suggests that deposit growth could be raised by either making other asset classes unattractive (through taxation and/or interest rate) or increasing the growth in net credit to the government by pushing fiscal spending higher" the report added. Alternatively, policymakers might consider curtailing loan growth to lower the LD ratio. However, this could slow deposit growth, particularly if corporate credit growth remains weak. Encouraging savers to shift investments from other assets to bank deposits could also be an option, but this carries risks of overreach and potential damage to economic confidence. Das had also flagged the excessive growth, or froth developing in the personal loan space. Notably, while credit growth in unsecured personal loans like credit cards continues to decline, it remains elevated at 23.3% as of June 2024. However, this is a significant reduction from 34.2% witnessed in November 2023. As fiscal spending increases, bank credit to the government is likely to grow, which should elevate deposits and broad money supply. The report said "However, the extent of foreign capital inflows and the RBI's policy for managing these inflows remain uncertain". Last month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had also addressed this issue in the 50th meeting of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). Per him, deposit mobilisation has been lagging credit growth for some time now. This may potentially expose the system to structural liquidity issues. "While there could be a debate regarding ‘deposits funding loans’ vis-à-vis ‘loans funding deposits’, the current regulatory concern stems from the fact that there could be structural changes happening which banks need to recognise and, accordingly, devise their strategies. Households and consumers who traditionally leaned on banks for parking or investing their savings are increasingly turning to capital markets and other financial intermediaries", Das said. Per him, while bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of financial assets owned by households, their share has been declining consistently, since households are now increasingly allocating their savings to mutual funds, insurance funds, pension funds and other avenues.

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia almost tripled its defense spending to finance its invasion of Ukraine.</li><li>Defense firms are busy — but high inflation and interest rates past 20% have left them struggling.</li></ul>In Russia's defense sector, demand is surging — but its companies are struggling all the same.The Kremlin is seeking ever more weapons for its attack on Ukraine.But sky-high interest rates are leaving companies struggling to turn a profit, a prominent CEO recently said.Sergei Chemezov, CEO of the defense conglomerate Rostec, sounded the alarm in an address to Russian senators in late October.He <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rbc.ru/economics/23/10/2024/6718c36a9a79476b774f1989">said</a> "record" interest rates were "eating up" the profit from its orders.<h2 id="f760578d-7185-4150-bf09-fde6f3d70c06">Debt trap</h2>He said clients tended to pay 30%-40% of an order's value in advance, leaving the firm to borrow the rest.That debt, he said, was so expensive that it canceled out any profit on the work."If we continue to work like this, then most of our enterprises will go bankrupt," he said.A few days after he spoke, Russia's central bank <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">hiked its main interest rate further still</a>, from 19% to 21%.Rostec is not alone in its predicament, economic analysts told Business Insider.Rising interest rates and export bans were eroding Russian defense companies' profits across the board, they said, making the Russian state the only guarantor of revenues.<h2 id="b9ad0c28-486e-4588-b4c2-4b027ca1e40d">Sustaining the war machine</h2>Since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine about two and a half years ago, the Kremlin has taken a slew of measures to keep its defense sector pumping out tanks, ammunition, drones, and missiles.It restructured its economy to prioritize the war, imposed export bans, tapped its national wealth fund, and strengthened trade with non-Western countries.Its defense budget soared, from $59 billion in 2022 to $109 billion in 2023.It's heading for an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.sipri.org/media/newsletter/2023-december">estimated $140 billion</a> in 2024, with a draft budget forecasting $145 billion for 2025.That figure would represent 6.3% of Russian GDP, the highest share since Soviet times.That spending has consequences, said Roman Sheremeta, an associate professor of economics at the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University."The government pumped enormous sums of money to support the war efforts," he told Business Insider. "And the Russian reserves have been almost depleted."The liquid assets of Russia's national wealth fund dropped by almost half, from 8.9 trillion rubles (about $91 billion) before the war to 5 trillion rubles (about $51 billion) at the end of last year, Bloomberg <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/war-in-ukraine-drains-nearly-half-of-accessible-russian-reserves">reported</a> in January, citing Finance Ministry data."The Kremlin cannot afford defense companies to go bankrupt," Sheremeta said.<h2 id="86664911-b4d8-4aec-ad9a-8c27b113bb7b">A 'death spiral'</h2>While huge defense expenditures have contributed to economic growth in Russia and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">averted a recession</a>, they also fueled inflation.When it hiked the key interest rate to 21%, Russia's central bank said its mission was to tame inflation.In September, Russia's annual inflation rate rose to 8.6%, far above its 4% target.Sheremeta described the situation as a "death spiral," where war spending begets more inflation, which requires more war spending."What is even worse for those companies," he said of the defense firms, "is that they cannot export due to sanctions and sell their weapons for US dollars or Euros."Daniel Treisman, a professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said Russia could end up with hyperinflation."As the budget deficit rises in the face of military costs, the need to cover part of it by printing money will drive prices ever higher, and the Central Bank will have to hike interest rates further to slow them," he said.<h2 id="2a236608-2617-4e7e-8687-d480f19dea32">A crisis point — but not yet</h2>The experts BI spoke to both said Russia could sustain its spending for a year or more before a crisis point.Some see even more runway.Iikka Korhonen, the head of research at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, said defense companies won't be allowed to go bankrupt, and would instead be restructured or bailed out.Russia has done that before, saving indebted defense firms in 2016 during an earlier financial crisis.If that doesn't fix the problem, "other sectors will be cut" to keep defense firms going, Korhonen said.Julian Cooper, Professor Emeritus at the Centre for Russian and East European Studies of the University of Birmingham, made similar remarks."If some defense companies cannot fulfill their obligations, the Kremlin can simply nationalize them," Sheremeta said.Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, forecast a dark economic future ahead for Russia due in part to "borrowing" funds from the future.In an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-outlook-moscow-sanctions-west-firms-uchicago-2024-10">op-ed</a> for Project Syndicate earlier this month, Sonin wrote that massive investment in military production at the expense of key public spending programs may strengthen Putin's hand in the short term."But it sets a time bomb under longer-term economic development," he wrote."Whenever the Ukraine war ends and Russia returns to international trade (beyond raw materials), all the nationalizations of recent years will come back to haunt it," he wrote.

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Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

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SBI report dismisses bank deposit concerns as a 'Statistical Myth'

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Under strain from war, Russia plans a massive layoff in its public sector: report

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Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

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Russia's defense sector is running on overdrive — but firms are warning of bankruptcy

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