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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The worst is behind the commercial real estate sector, according to Blackstone's Jon Gray.</li><li>The real estate vet thinks there's a huge opportunity for investors in the sector.</li></ul>The worst of the commercial real estate turmoil looks to be over, Blackstone president Jon Gray says.The private equity exec gave a cautiously optimistic outlook on the commercial property market at a recent event hosted by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-talks/blackstones-jon-gray-on-real-estate-rates-and-building-a-winning-company-culture">Goldman Sachs</a>. He says the tide may be turning, evident in a handful of signs flashing in the market similar to those that signaled a bottom in 2009, when the commercial real estate sector was beginning to rebound after the Great Financial Crisis."We said in January, publicly on earnings, that we thought commercial real estate was bottoming. And we've continued to believe that," Gray said. "We began to get those signals at the end of last year saying, look, the markets are recognizing inflation coming down. The Fed's starting to tilt toward a different area. As the cost of capital comes down in these sectors, we should go out there and get it."The state of the market mirrors 2009, when activity in the sector was just starting to pick up after the Great Financial Crisis, Gray said."And the problem for investors is they're often looking in the rearview mirror. So they're saying to themselves, 'Real estate, oh, I got all this troubled real estate. And I don't want to go back into that,'" he said. "But if you went back to 2009, the best investments in the cycle were then. You didn't get the all clear sign from everybody else till 2012."Blackstone has been busy "deploying capital" this year, he said, noting that the firm has been scooping up logistics assets in Europe like buildings involved in storing and transporting goods, as well as real estate in Asia."If you were an investor in real estate after the financial crisis, you would have made a lot of money. And my guess is, if you're an investor today, the same thing will happen," he added.

Commercial real estate is flashing signs that the worst of the distress is over, Blackstone president says

See inside the E-4B 'Nightwatch,' nicknamed the 'doomsday plane' for its ability to help US presidents survive nuclear war

I toured an Air Force One plane used by 4 US presidents. Take a look inside the 'flying Oval Office.'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump loved Twitter during his first term. Now he's aligned with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter">Twitter owner Elon Musk</a>.</li><li>Does that mean Twitter will be important in a second Trump administration?</li></ul>Donald Trump is going to be president again. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>, one of his biggest backers, owns Twitter.Does this mean Twitter is going to be more important in the Trump 2.0 era?Probably?But we won't know how Twitter, which Musk has renamed X, will matter for some time.It was interesting, for instance, to see the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/charlieknews/status/1855946437638451607?s=46&amp;t=xhuXMba3HM4poWm9CQq-PA">campaign for the next Senate majority leader play out on Twitter</a> over the weekend, with conservative leaders, including Tucker Carlson and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/charlieknews/status/1855946437638451607?s=46&amp;t=xhuXMba3HM4poWm9CQq-PA">Charlie Kirk</a>, weighing in on the platform, as well as Musk and Trump.That fight is still ongoing, by the way. Here was Kirk on Monday morning, trying to rally the troops in favor of US Sen. Rick Scott:And at a minimum, it seems obvious to conclude that as long as Musk is aligned with Trump, Twitter users will see a lot of content on Twitter that supports Trump. As both The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal have reported — and plenty of people can see with their own eyes — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-twitter-x-wsj-washington-post-2024-10">Twitter already has taken a rightward turn under Musk's ownership</a>. And, obviously, lots of people in Trump's orbit are also enthusiastic Twitter users, starting with Musk himself.But the big unknown I'm thinking about right now is a pretty simple one: Does Donald Trump know, or care, about what's happening on Twitter?Trump famously loved Twitter during his first term in office. But he wasn't addicted to it the way many of us are — constantly scrolling for things to enrage or delight or distract. Instead, he was using it like a remote control — to program the media's coverage, and reality itself.Here's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/05/20/trump_interview_immigration_reform_china_trade_iran_terror_tax_cuts_2020.html">Trump in 2019, talking to Fox News</a> about the way he used Twitter:But note who Trump was talking to in that interview: Fox News.Trump 1.0 was a president who understood that digital media was important. But he was first and foremost a president who came of age in the 1970s and 1980s, and his media diet reflected that: print newspapers and magazines, which he would scrawl notes on using a Sharpie. And, above all else: TV.<h2 id="11ca4a22-42c5-4094-aa04-c65ca86fe04e">Trump was the TV president</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/04/donald-trump-americas-first-tv-president/521640/">Trump was transfixed by TV</a>, and that meant TV was the most important medium during his first presidency. If you wanted to communicate with the president, the conventional wisdom became, you did it by going on TV because you knew he'd see it there. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/03/11/the-making-of-the-fox-news-white-house">Fox News in particular</a>.That was four years ago, and since then, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/comcast-split-cable-tv-cnbc-bravo-nbc-peacock-2024-10">the TV landscape has continued to bleed money and audience</a>. <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/election-night-television-viewers-nielsen-ae958da29e922bb47efa54d93548376c">Election night ratings last week were down 25% from 2020</a>. Newish mediums and platforms like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-donald-trump-podcasts-joe-rogan2024-11">podcasts, YouTube and TikTok are ascendant</a>, and Trump and his campaign spent a lot of time and effort over there.So is it possible that Trump, who is approaching 80 and <a target="_blank" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y.M.C.A._(song)">played songs from 1978</a> at his rallies, has changed his media diet, too?I mean, sure? I guess it's conceivable that he went on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@TheoVon">Theo Von's podcast/YouTube show</a> because he's a big Theo Von fan.My hunch, though, is that he's getting his information the way he always has — by watching and reading Old Media. And, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/us/politics/trump-personnel-cabinet-candidates.html">The New York Times</a> reports, by asking whoever's in his orbit at the moment:"Mr. Trump, who is a mix of competing impulses, is also doing what he always does: calling around to friends and associates, asking them who they think he should pick."And to be clear, what's happening on Twitter — or anywhere else online — can very much influence how the people who influence Trump think. But even they pay attention to TV — or, at least TV clips on the internet.Musk, for instance, spent part of his Sunday using Twitter to criticize "Saturday Night Live" — just like Trump used to do. "They are so mad that <a target="_blank" class="css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3 r-1loqt21" href="https://x.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a> won," he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1855649149166968922">wrote</a>, adding:I'm very wary of looking at Trump 2016-2020 and confidently projecting that the next four years will be the same. But I will be surprised if Donald Trump, TV guy, becomes Donald Trump, Twitter guy.

Is this going to be a Twitter presidency or a TV one?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has promised to do a variety of different things on "Day One" of his second term.</li><li>Much of his agenda will take time to implement, but there are things he could start immediately.</li></ul>Over the past two years of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">President-elect Donald Trump's</a> third presidential campaign, he frequently promised to enact certain promises on "day one" of his new administration."Many things will be done on day one," Trump said at a town hall with Tucker Carlson in Phoenix in late October. "Your head will spin when you see what's going to happen."Some aspects of Trump's agenda, particularly his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">promises</a> to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits, will require Congress to act.But much of his signature promises can be set into motion via executive orders, which he will be able to issue as soon as he enters office. He will also be able to issue pardons and fire government officials as early as day one.<h2 id="b28818a4-c79e-4982-8ef7-724240a430af">Executive orders: Immigration and likely legal challenges</h2>Some of Trump's most readily achievable promises are related to immigration, an area where the White House and Executive Branch have a significant say. In the closing days of the campaign, Trump underlined his commitment to getting to work right away on building "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">the largest deportation force</a>" in the nation's history. The American Civil Liberties Union and other organizations have said they would challenge Trump's actions in court, meaning that anything begun on Day One will only be the beginning of a potentially long legal fight.Trump also repeatedly promised to curtail <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2023/0120/Immigration-parole-What-is-it-and-who-s-getting-it#:~:text=Unlike%20asylum%20and%20refugee%20status,benefits%2C%20though%20there%20are%20exceptions">parole</a>, which allows immigrants to temporarily live in the US, often for humanitarian reasons. He also pushed debunked claims about secret "migrant flights," which he also promised to ban on day one.Trump has promised to issue several executive orders when he takes office, though some of them are likely to be challenged in court.For example, Trump has pledged to sign an executive order revoking birthright citizenship, which is enshrined in the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.During the Republican primary, he pledged to take executive action "banning schools from promoting critical race theory or transgender insanity."It's likely that such an action could mirror an executive order President Joe Biden revoked after taking office, which at the time prohibited the federal government and federal contractors from conducting workplace trainings on "divisive concepts." A federal judge later blocked prohibitions on certain trainings.<h2 id="95350b5b-0e65-4724-a668-327eaf0fb4cb">Pardons and personnel decisions: Firing Jack Smith, pardoning January 6 rioters</h2>Some of Trump's promises are more simple and involve firing government officials he does not like.That includes Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is currently leading the Department of Justice's prosecution of Trump for his role in the January 6 insurrection and Trump's mishandling of classified documents. Smith is already <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-jan-6-justice-department-classified-documents-01c2d54177d7c949f62a15604a27b3e0">reportedly</a> looking into winding down those investigations in order to comply with a longstanding department policy that sitting presidents cannot be prosecuted."I would fire him within two seconds," Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in late October. "He'll be one of the first things addressed."At a Bitcoin conference in July, Trump also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7">pledged to fire</a> Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, on "day one" and appoint a replacement. Gensler has angered many in the cryptocurrency community, which Trump and his campaigned courted ahead of the 2024 election.Trump has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/donald-trump-says-absolutely-pardon-jan-6-rioters-rcna164565">pledged</a> to pardon January 6 rioters "if they're innocent," which he would be able to do as soon as his first day in office.<h2 id="c3a47c27-7a7a-4054-aee5-a4613822eeb6">"Day One" promises that Trump may not be able to fulfill</h2>Some "day one" commitments are simply not possible.At times during the campaign, Trump pledged to "end inflation" just hours after taking office. But no one, including the president, can single-handedly lower broad price levels set across the entire US economy.The Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, is tasked with monitoring inflation and adjusting interest rates up or down as needed, and the Fed takes its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">political independence seriously.</a> Far from ending inflation, economists are worried that Trump's expansive tariffs could lead <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">prices spiking even higher.</a>"Starting on day one of my new administration, we will end inflation and we will make America affordable again because the prices are too high," Trump said at a rally in Wisconsin in October.Prices reached record highs earlier in the Biden administration, but since then inflation has continued to cool.

What Trump might do on Day One of his presidency

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump courted bitcoin lovers by branding himself the "crypto president."</li><li>The industry hopes his second term will bring regulatory changes and give bitcoin a role in the economy.</li></ul>Donald Trump flipped from <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> cynic to <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-election-outlook-crypto-funding-regulation-biden-novogratz-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">"crypto president"</a> and it paid off big.Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/trump-bitcoin-commentary-seems-like-scam-against-the-us-dollar-2021-6-1030500598?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">disparaged digital assets</a> as recently as just a few years ago, describing bitcoin as a scam, and yet his latest electoral win was fueled in no small part by crypto-friendly pledges that unlocked millions in campaign funding.With Trump headed back to the White House, it's now the industry's turn to see if its bets on a second term paid off. Here's what they're want to see. <h2 id="1009b70b-3c95-4408-9e2d-ef2b16069f01">Regulatory overhaul</h2>One of the root themes of Trump's crypto platform is a promise to sweep aside regulatory restrictions that have hung over the industry in recent years.Criticism has been loud over the Biden administration's handling of the sector, characterized by heated confrontations between the Securities and Exchange Commission and major crypto players."Those guys, I mean, they just put so much uncertainty in this entire industry. It was unbelievable. There was no clear guidance, no regulations," said Tim Kravchunovsky, CEO of Chirp, a decentralized telecommunications company.Speaking with Business Insider, he added that regulatory conflict has pushed crypto business out of the US, costing Washington its competitive edge. Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, agreed with that sentiment. "By creating a more welcoming regulatory environment, this approach could draw back projects and founders who have left the country due to regulatory uncertainty, generating thousands of new jobs and millions in tax revenue, bolstering the economy while advancing the crypto sector," he told BI over email.To this end, the industry anticipates that Trump will replace regulatory heads with more crypto-friendly people. The president-elect is already surrounded by such figures, Mena said, such as Elon Musk, JD Vance, Robert F. Kennedy, and Howard Lutnick.Meanwhile, to make Trump's plan of turning the US into a "crypto hub" possible,Kravchunovsky suggested that Washington could provide incentives such as federal grants and tax cuts.<h2 id="b1a4e172-d8a3-4ea3-b022-1a29b3897ab5">Crypto bills</h2>On the legislative front, crypto players will also be watching for the repeal of SAB 121 and the passage of several key bills,SAB 121, an SEC policy document <a target="_blank" href="https://content.next.westlaw.com/practical-law/document/Idfd9dfac273211ef8921fbef1a541940/President-Biden-Vetoes-Legislation-Rescinding-SEC-Staff-Accounting-Bulletin-121-SAB-121-on-Crypto-Custody?viewType=FullText&amp;transitionType=Default&amp;contextData=(sc.Default)">kept in place by the Biden administration</a>, discourages US lenders from acting as crypto custiodians, given that it requires them to hold an equivalent amount of cash against their crypto holdings. It's removal would free institutional investors to further adopt digital assets.Mena also cited anticipation around FIT21, an act aiming to clarify the regulatory roles around digital assets. Consumer protections would also strengthen under this bill, he said.Meanwhile, Trump's administration could accelerate progress on three meaningful pieces of stablecoin legislation, which aim to set up guardrails around future stablecoin issuance. These dollar-pegged crypto assets are increasingly used for purposes similar to traditional finance, Standard Chartered said in a note on Friday.<h2 id="eae31105-86db-4e91-9d15-cfc75e92738f">A bitcoin reserve?</h2>Since Trump's victory, speculation has jumped that a strategic bitcoin reserve could be in on the way. Though the President-elect has not specifically voiced such a plan, the idea that his administration would buy bitcoin as a reserve asset has created enthusiasm among crypto bulls."We're already seeing that that [crypto's] gaining trust, and it's gaining trust within institutions and countries. More and more countries are adopting it. So I don't think it's a matter of years. I think it's a matter of months," Kravchunovsky said.Mena sees the price of bitcoin soaring to $1 million "almost overnight," if a strategic reserve were to be established. The scenario would prompt other nations to build up their own reserves, pushing bitcoin's total market cap 13 times higher. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered head of FX research Geoff Kendrick considers a bitcoin reserve fund as a high-impact development with a low probability of happening for now. Investors should instead pay attention to Trump's separate promise to cease all sales of government bitcoin. If this happens, that could mean a sizeable upswing in the price of the token, he wrote.<h2 id="6a25764b-b3fc-4a7c-a689-ece320390cd4">Crypto's time to shine</h2>In whatever way the industry changes under Trump, one thing feels certain: the election has cemented the crypto markets place in the mainstream."Crypto is now essentially legal in the U.S., marking a major turning point for the industry," Mena wrote.According to Kendrick, crypto-friendly adjustments have the potential to drive the total market value of the cryptocurrency market to $10 trillion by the end of 2026, a major jump from the current $2.5 trillion level.He reiterated his expectation that bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the next year's end.

What the crypto market actually wants from a Trump presidency

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election sent Chinese shares lower on fears of upcoming tariffs.</li><li>Hong Kong's major index saw especially deep losses.</li></ul>Chinese markets aren't celebrating Trump's presidential win.Hong Kong absorbed most of the fallout, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index dropping 2.6% on Wednesday. China's CSI 300 slid 0.5% after declining as much as 1% at intraday lows.Wednesday's sell-off reflects heightened fear that global trade relations with the US could turn sour in Trump's second term. Analysts have warned of impending <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">trade wars</a> if the president-elect fulfills his promise to implement universal tariffs, pledging 60% duties on Chinese exports."We believe that tariffs are the most potentially consequential policy from an economic perspective," UBS wrote in a note Wednesday. "The mooted 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from the rest of the world could make much of US-China trade unviable, reduce US domestic demand and corporate profits, and lead to lower GDP growth around the world, particularly in China."This fresh uncertainty also weighed on international currencies. China's offshore yuan notched its largest one-day drop since October 2022, falling as much as 1.3% against the US dollar.Still, the impact on China's mainland stock market was mute compared to its Hong Kong counterpart as investors awaited an expected stimulus boost on Friday.Bank of America expects Beijing to announce 6 trillion worth of yuan in bond issuance over three years to swap local government debt. If so, this would signal more willingness by the central government to take on more fiscal responsibility, analysts wrote on Tuesday — a "welcoming gesture" for markets.

Chinese stocks drop as Trump's presidency spells more tariff risk

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump is yet to announce his pick for Treasury Secretary.</li><li>Names in the frame include Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Marc Rowan, and Kevin Warsh.</li></ul>After announcing a swathe of names for his Cabinet, president-elect Donald Trump appears to be conducting auditions for his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-lutnick-treasury-secretary-bessent-2024-11">Treasury Secretary</a>.Figures in the frame include Scott Bessent, the founder of Key Square Capital Management; Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald; Marc Rowan, the Apollo Global Management cofounder; and Kevin Warsh, a former governor of the Federal Reserve Board.Here's some of the best commentary we've seen about the race to be the next Treasury Secretary.<h2 id="ae4b6c87-26a6-4e33-8ebf-b45e9babbffa">The New York Times DealBook newsletter</h2><h2 id="3d1cf5aa-5b7d-4e4d-96ee-6793db22c7d5"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Jkylebass/status/1857794067251298541">Kyle Bass</a>, chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, on X</h2><h2 id="d9877d8e-25ac-4ef8-8713-1b59b57c9fb3">The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/disruption-wont-work-at-treasury-trump-nomination-musk-63c5b8f9">'Disruption Won't Work at Treasury'</a></h2><h2 id="8b031c32-dd8c-499c-947e-7025201d570d">Mike Allen, Axios cofounder, on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/18/new-treasury-secretarys-number-one-job-will-be-reassuring-the-markets-says-axios-mike-allen.html">CNBC</a></h2><h2 id="e06aa875-8c1b-4294-b272-8d54a101d0be">Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group founder, told BI:</h2><h2 id="5ae024d8-3102-40b1-a230-50772299c96d">The Economist — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/11/16/howard-lutnick-donald-trumps-resilient-transition-chief">'Howard Lutnick, Donald Trump's resilient transition chief'</a></h2><h2 id="562ada01-796e-4318-925e-7743f2c8fa55">Bloomberg Editorial Board — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-14/donald-trump-s-nominees-suggest-familiar-chaos?srnd=opinion">'Trump's Nominees Suggest Familiar Chaos'</a></h2><h2 id="4ba2f401-897a-4adc-8768-3322644452e9"><a target="_blank" class="css-175oi2r r-1wbh5a2 r-dnmrzs r-1ny4l3l r-1loqt21" href="https://x.com/JStein_WaPo">Jeff Stein,</a> The Washington Post economics reporter, on X</h2>

Trump's Treasury Secretary: The best commentary about who the president-elect should nominate

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<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea fighting alongside Russia would be a serious escalation to the Ukraine war.</li><li>NATO and Western allies are facing pressure to respond — but have historically been hesitant.</li></ul>Western allies have options to react to the threat of North Korean troops in Russia, but are hamstrung by fears of escalation, military experts told Business Insider. On Monday, the Pentagon<a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/article/3948100/pentagon-deputy-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-an-off-camera-on-the-record/"> said</a> that 10,000 North Korean troops had been shipped to Russia for training and were likely to join Russian forces"over the next several weeks." NATO chief Mark Rutte said that some troops are already in Kursk, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_230105.htm">calling</a> the move "a significant escalation." He added that it is "yet another" contravention of UN Security Council resolutions. He said the bloc is "actively consulting" on what to do next. Despite these statements — and a similar chorus of condemnation from Western governments — few commitments have been made. On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed frustration, saying that his allies' response was "not so loud as it has to be" in reaction to the North Korean threat,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-war-in-ukraine-russia-north-korean-troops-western-allies-response/"> Politico reported</a>. "Till now, we heard some reactions, but it is not strong enough," he added. <h2>A watershed moment?</h2>In itself, 10,000 more troops in Russia's war in Ukraine is not a game changer, Patrick Bury, a military analyst at the UK's University of Bath, told BI. The troops, many with no experience in real war situations, could also be of limited help. There is reason, however, to imagine the numbers could rise. North Korea has steadily ramped up its cooperation with Russia, reportedly supplying<a target="_blank" href="https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/north-korea-supplies-half-of-the-shells-used-by-russia-in-ukraine-d3fkhppjs"> half of all artillery shells</a> used in Ukraine in the last year. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has the fourth-largest standing army in the world, so there is no shortage of troops. Crucially, experts consider his regime to be receiving<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-military-officials-helping-russia-ukraine-win-for-kim-2024-10"> an economic and technological lifeline</a> in exchange. Edward Hunter Christie, a former NATO official and a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, described the dangers of the partnership as "a much more serious test of resolve for the West than most people currently realize." He added: "There's a reluctance to act." This at least means there will be no rash decisions, he said. Christie, along with other experts BI spoke to, described a hesitancy and fear of escalation among Ukraine's biggest Western partners that amounts to alack of overall strategy. <h2>The West has some options — and a history of slapping them down</h2>When it comes to options for the US and Europe, "the tools are the same tools that have been there all along," Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2024-10-28/ukraine-allies-face-limited-options-as-north-korea-troops-arrive?embedded-checkout=true"> told Bloomberg.</a> That includes the ad-hoc trickling through of aid packages like one<a target="_blank" href="https://kyivindependent.com/norways-pm-announces-new-500-million-euro-aid-package-for-ukraine/"> recently announced by Norway</a>. It also includes things that have long been ruled out, like allowing Ukraine to make long-range strikes in Russia with Western-supplied missiles. A bipartisan group in Congress has called on Biden to allow Poland to intercept Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4960374-biden-poland-air-defense-ukraine/">The Hill reported</a>. It's a move that NATO's former chief Jens Stoltenberg had earlier ruled out, saying it would risk the alliance "becoming part of the conflict," the outlet reported. South Korea, too, has said it is considering sending military aid directly to Ukraine. It's an unprecedented move that could prove highly beneficial, but which the state is hesitant to make,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-big-difference-russia-north-korea-2024-10"> experts told BI</a>. Lithuania's foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, has also revived a suggestion made in February by France's President Emmanuel Macron of not ruling out the deployment of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/french-president-wont-rule-out-sending-troops-ukraine-2024-2">NATO troops in Ukraine</a>, in support roles. "We are still on the back foot, reacting to escalation instead of reversing it,"<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1848006509013225679"> Landsbergis wrote on X</a>. "Macron's ideas should now be revisited." That idea was earlier<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-angry-germany-series-screw-ups-leaks-scholz-macron-ukraine-2024-3"> publicly slapped down</a> by Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Such a move "would free up a lot of resources for Ukraine," said Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND. It would also send an important signal to Russia, she said: "That they don't have dominance on the escalation ladder." <h2>The escalation trap</h2>President Joe Biden's administration — along with much of Western Europe — has largely avoided actions that could be seen as escalating the conflict. The fact that now a serious escalation looks possible thanks to North Korea is an indication of the failure of that policy, Christie told BI. The US presidential election and the impending change of administration also puts a chilling effect on any dramatic changes in policy for the coming months, he said. "We live in an age of US-led hesitancy within the Western world, which just keeps on failing us, which just keeps on increasing the level of danger to the security of the collective West," he said. The bind for the Biden administration is not only in dealing with two nuclear states, but also that North Korea's belligerence could cause the conflict to spill over toward its southern neighbor and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-muted-response-russia-north-korea-alliance-costly-ukraine-economy-2024-10">damage relations with China.</a> Western states are likely to have been quietly hoping that China might step in diplomatically and dissuade North Korea, Christie said. At some point, the West has to react decisively, he argued. Dailey told BI: "The problem with having a strategy of de-escalation is that if that is your stated strategy, you've already ceded every step on the escalation ladder to the enemy." In Bury's view, the West's problem is that it cannot even agree on its broader strategy, let alone decide how to implement it. "The broader point here is: the West, we're not doing the strategy," he said. "We're muddling through."

What can the West do about North Korea giving troops to Russia? Not much it hasn't already flinched from.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Business Insider spoke to five experts about what a Trump and Harris presidency would bring for AI.</li><li>Neither has offered specifics on their AI policies, but Trump would likely ease back regulations.</li></ul>With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-political-divide-twitter-elon-musk-kamala-harris-2024-8">Silicon Valley executives</a> inserting themselves — and their wallets — into this year's presidential election, questions remain about how <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">former President Donald Trump</a> would tackle AI regulation should they win the White House in less than one week.Business Insider spoke to five experts with experience in government and the private sector about how each administration might regulate AI, which is evolving at breakneck speed and influencing nearly every factor of American life."There should be more attention paid to what the candidates do in the AI area, just because it's such an important space," Darrell West, a senior fellow in the Center for Technology Innovation at the nonpartisan Brookings Institute, told Business Insider. "But neither Trump nor Harris have been very detailed in outlining their policies. Neither has put out major position papers on the topic, so it's a little bit of a black box in terms of how each administration would handle AI.""It's a shame that we're a week away from an election and we don't have a detailed AI policy agenda from either candidate," John Bailey, a nonresident senior fellow at the conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute, saidThe experts anticipate that, broadly speaking, Trump will take a more deregulatory approach to technology and AI, whereas Harris will continue with the Biden administration's approach of regulation. There remains room a degree of uncertainty with either candidate, though, as each juggles the desires of their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-investors-kamala-harris-mark-cuban-reid-hoffman-2024-8">private sector supporters</a>.<h2 id="4254cad9-402b-4779-9f06-c89b327c70b8">The candidates differ over a recent key AI directive.</h2>Between calling AI <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-ai-dangerous-still-posts-ai-memes-truth-social-x-2024-8">"very dangerous" </a>and sharing AI-generated images of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-taylor-swift-image-shared-made-others-ai-very-dangerous-2024-8">Taylor Swift</a>, Trump hasn't offered many details on how he'd regulate the technology. He has, however, committed to rolling back a sweeping <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-advisor-catching-up-on-ai-biden-executive-order-2023-10">executive order that President Joe Biden</a> issued in October, 2023 regarding AI regulation.The wide-reaching order generated significant political backlash, as some conservatives argued that certain provisions constituted government overreach and would hinder innovation. Supporters generally argue that regulation is necessary to ensure safety in the industry."The sticking point was really over the idea that we would create this big, monolithic AI regulation, not that we would create regulation at all, because there's already regulation around AI in those regulated industries," said Nicholas Reese, an adjunct professor at New York University and the Director of Emerging Technology at the Department of Homeland Security from 2019-2023."It was inclusive of certain perspectives and communities who helped shape it, but it did not reflect a lot of center-right thinking," Bailey told BI.In late October of this year, the Biden administration published a national security memorandum telling the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to ramp up their use of AI. Earlier in the month, Biden's team issued guidance over how federal agencies overall should effectively use AI while appropriately contending with risk.Megan Shahi, Director of Technology Policy at the liberal think tank the Center for American Progress, called the executive order "a good first step." Oren Etzioni, the founder of a nonprofit fighting political deepfakes and the former CEO of the Allen Institute on AI, thinks that the order is well-intentioned, but potentially too heavy-handed. "I think that regulating a fast moving technology is challenging, and I would say that it's well intentioned, but the road to regulatory hell is paved with good intentions," Etzioni said.<h2 id="433b3791-3da2-4962-be9f-71fedfb9fe6a">Trump would take a more hands-off approach to AI — but his immigration policies could end up impacting the sector.</h2>Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-gop-spending-130-million-2024-10">inscribed his promise</a> to get rid of the order into the Republican party platform, which reads in part: "We will repeal Joe Biden's dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation, and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology."Other than that, Trump hasn't offered many details on his plans for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-influence-election-trump-harris-2024-10">AI policy</a> and his campaign did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment. Reese anticipates that he would repeal the new National Security Memorandum as well, but both he and Bailey said it's unclear what he would replace it with. The uncertainty could, Reese said, cause confusion among innovators."I haven't seen any other concrete policies on this, which tells me probably that they're not going to put forth a comprehensive AI strategy," said Shahi. She said that Trump hasn't committed to much regulation in any direction, and Etzioni described him as "pro-deregulation."As president, Trump didn't spend a lot of time talking about AI, but did sign his own executive order in 2019 that instructed federal agencies to prioritize <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-electric-vehicles-elon-musk-endorsement-2024-8">researching the technology</a> — Bailey described the order as "overlooked and under-appreciated."Reese worked at the Department of Homeland Security during the final year of the Trump administration."When I worked under the Trump administration, there was actually quite a bit of activity, they were very active," he said. "And especially on AI, they were doing things that would be pretty hard to argue over, like creating a list of trustworthy principles for trustworthiness and AI." He described that administration's approach as "incremental."Etzioni said the former president's impact on AI extended beyond narrow policy and that the same could go for another Trump term. In particular, he thinks that the immigration of skilled workers is crucial in the AI race against China, which Trump's immigration policies threaten."The impact on business is nuanced, but I think that it's trumped by the impact of the country," Etzioni said. "If Trump ends up being the agent of chaos that many of us anticipate he will be, that'll have the biggest impact on AI, more so than specific policies."<h2 id="22809d1a-7ad4-4a52-9d01-aaf471dd7cf4">Harris would build on Biden's executive order and likely maintain his overall approach to the AI industry.</h2>With her California roots and deep ties to the tech industry — her brother-in-law <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-west-wall-street-kamala-harris-cabinet-treasury-2024-10">Tony West is an executive at Uber </a>— Harris played a significant role in the Biden administration's efforts on AI. She met with the leaders of tech companies, helped introduce memos on AI use in the federal government, and represented the administration at a global summit on AI safety, which she flags on her campaign website.After Biden took office, Reese said that the work on AI policy eventually became more ambitious than it had been under Trump."It felt like the major difference was that the Biden administration tried to pursue bigger pieces of policy," he told BI.When asked for comment, the Harris campaign directed Business Insider to the vice president's policy handbook, which specifies Harris' intention to honor Biden's executive order and includes plans for an "America Forward" strategy that focuses in part on strengthening AI technology. The <a target="_blank" href="https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy_Book_Economic-Opportunity.pdf">policy book </a>also outlines a plan to scale up the National AI Research Resource, which supports startups and researchers.The experts that Business Insider spoke to don't know precisely what Harris would do as president. They all anticipate that she would take an approach generally consistent with Biden. Shahi said that Biden provided "a straightforward foundation to build on," but doesn't think that AI is necessarily a day one priority."I think that a Harris administration is likely going to take this kind of much more linear, much more predictable path that is based on a lot of the existing corpus of AI policies, like the National AI research resource," Reese said, describing such continuity as the healthiest approach.Whether Trump or Harris wins the White House, Etzioni and Bailey said that having <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-sec-ftc-khan-gensler-crypto-regulation-biden-warren-2024-9">AI experts in the administration</a> is crucial. Among the few upsides Bailey sees to Biden's executive order is the call to have agencies appoint AI directors."The bottom line is that neither of them is an AI expert, so it's a question of who they would hire," Etzioni said of the candidates.<h2 id="1e24d451-c0f3-45bd-a9d9-1f2ca945c4f1"></h2>

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact the future of AI

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bitcoin hit a record high as investors cheered Trump's election victory on Wednesday. </li><li>Crypto players are hopeful that Trump's presidency will boost digital assets. </li></ul>Donald Trump's reelection sent bitcoin to all-time highs on Wednesday as traders cheered the coming administration of the "crypto president." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> popped as much as 8% early Wednesday, rising past $75,000 for the first time ever before paring its gains to trade about 7% higher, around $74,411.Other digital asset prices also rose, thanks to renewed optimism in the sector as traders anticipate crypto-friendly policies from Trump. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/">Ether</a> rose 8% by mid-day Wednesday, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/dogecoin/">Dogecoin</a>, the crypto associated with prominent Trump supporter Elon Musk, also rallied 8%. Crypto-related stocks, meanwhile, also moved up, with shares of Coinbase rallying 21% and Robinhood climbing 16% by mid-day.Trump had been dubbed the "crypto president" during his campaign as he courted the industry, which was one of the largest sources of political spending during the election cycle. Earlier this year, Trump gave a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, where he promised to create a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7">bitcoin national stockpile</a>." In October, he launched a stablecoin with his crypto business, World Liberty Financial.Bullish forecasts for bitcoin piled up on Wall Street in the weeks leading up to the election. Bitcoin could <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-record-high-trump-harris-election-crypto-regulation-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">soar to $125,000</a> by the end of the year on a Trump victory, Standard Chartered predicted in a September note.Bitcoin is among the many so-called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Trump Trades</a> rallying after the election. Shares of Trump Media, Tesla stock, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">bank stocks</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/small-caps-russell-2000-tariff-trade-tax-deregulation-trump-election-2024-11">small-caps</a> surged on Wednesday.

'Crypto president' Donald Trump has investors cheering as bitcoin hits record

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Elon Musk was asked what would happen if Trump won the election and withdrew government support for EVs.</li><li>He said it would be "devastating" for Tesla's rivals but would probably help Tesla "long term."</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> thinks a Trump presidency could be good for Tesla, but "devastating" for its rivals.The Tesla CEO told investors that a withdrawal of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/buying-electric-car-could-save-caveats-2024-6">government support for EVs</a> — which may occur under Trump — would probably boost the company "long term," as he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-endorses-trump-after-pennsylvania-rally-incident-2024-7">ramps up his support for the former president</a> ahead of the election."It would be devastating for our competitors, and it would hurt Tesla slightly, but long term it probably actually helps Tesla, would be my guess," Musk said in an earnings call on Tuesday, referring to Trump potentially scrapping President Joe Biden's tax credits that can effectively lower the price of an EV by up to $7,500.He went on to add that the true value of the company was not in EVs, where the automaker <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828024032603/tsla-20240723-gen.pdf">makes the vast majority of its revenue</a>, but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-prioritizes-musk-vip-data-self-driving-2024-7">rather in autonomous driving</a>."The value of Tesla, overwhelmingly, is autonomy. These other things are in the noise, relative to autonomy," he added.Musk has been an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-endorses-trump-after-pennsylvania-rally-incident-2024-7">outspoken supporter of Trump's presidential run</a> since he endorsed the former reality TV star following a failed assassination attempt.The billionaire has been trying to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-vinod-khosla-openai-investor-joe-biden-donald-trump-2024-7">convince ultra-rich Silicon Valley stalwarts to back Trump</a>, and reportedly played a role in Trump selecting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-jd-vance-elon-musk-tucker-carlson-david-sacks-2024-7">former venture capitalist and EV skeptic JD Vance</a> as his running mate.That's despite Trump previously being an<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-electric-car-supporters-rot-hell-christmas-truth-social-2023-12"> outspoken critic of EVs,</a> and Vance introducing legislation last year to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.vance.senate.gov/press-releases/senator-vance-unveils-legislation-to-eliminate-biden-ev-credits-promote-domestic-auto-manufacturing/">scrap Biden's $7,500 tax credit.</a>Experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-trump-presidential-victory-could-mean-for-evs-tesla-musk-2024-7">previously told Business Insider</a> that scrapping this tax credit could have a devastating impact on electric vehicle sales, potentially making the US auto industry less competitive and making EVs "insurmountably expensive" for many consumers.Tesla's scale and ability to make electric cars at a profit gives it an advantage over many of its rivals, and Musk is betting that this would allow it to weather the storm if EV incentives were to be cut."Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla," he wrote <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1813112958157005259">in a post on X</a> earlier in July.Tesla did not respond to a request for comment from BI, sent outside normal working hours.

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