Best printers for Home

Best Mixer Grinder

Best wired Earphones

Best 43 Inch TV in India

Best Wi Fi Routers

Best Home Theatre in India

Smart Watch under 5000

Best Laptops for Education

Best Laptop for Students

The votes are in, the election commission is armed, and tallies are finally being made. As lakhs of viewers tune into their news to update themselves, many are coming away shocked at the current standings. Despite confident promises of capturing 400 of the 543 Indian seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) has barely won a dozen or two seats more than the halfway mark of 272, as per the initial few rounds of counting. This is still an impressive position to be in, and certainly enough to help the BJP-led <keyword id="105903" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-democratic-alliance" source="Orion">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) make another term. However, the overwhelming, yet lukewarm, support has inadvertently deflated the ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ chant echoed by the party throughout its campaigning. Further, this comes mere days after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath called the slogan the ‘common man’s mantra’. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Exit polls gone wrong" comment="subhead" text="Exit polls gone wrong"><keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> gone wrong</cmsannotation> Party conjecture aside, most exit polls had also predicted a landslide victory for the NDA, with some even predicting the party crossing the 400 marks, helping the alliance comfortably bring in a third term for current Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, Congress leaders staunchly dismissed these findings, asserting that the <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">INDIA</keyword> alliance will achieve at least over 250 seats this election. While exit polls have exercised a notoriously patchy reputation for delivering inaccurate findings in the past, the surveys might have gotten it wrong far more than usual this time around. For instance, the BJP has been predicted to win 400 seats by News 24-Today’s Chanakya poll, 358 as per Times Now-ETG, 392 per India V-CNX. <table class="redcator-table-advance" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; box-shadow: none; width: 955.049px; font-family: Merriweather; padding-bottom: 10px !important; background-image: inherit !important; background-position: inherit !important; background-size: inherit !important; background-repeat: inherit !important; background-attachment: inherit !important; background-origin: inherit !important; background-clip: inherit !important;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;"> </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">NDA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">INDIA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Others</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Times Now - ETG </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">358</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">152</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Matrize - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">361</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">126</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">56</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Jan Ki Baat - NDTV </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">377</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">151</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">15</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">PMARQ - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">359</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">154</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">30</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India News - D-Dynamics</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">371</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">125</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">47</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Today's Chanakya - News24</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">400</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">107</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">36</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India TV</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">386</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">124</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Poll of polls</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">369</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">143</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">31</td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> However, the Modi-led alliance has yet to cross the 300 mark. If this trend holds, a majority government will form with BJP-led NDA acquiring slightly below 300 seats, almost mirroring exact forecasts by on-ground reporters and some political experts. However, this is quite in contrast with almost all exit polls this election season. If the scorecard settles at the current mark, this will end up becoming the poorest performance for NDA since their historic win in 2014. The alliance came to power after winning an overwhelming 336 seats in 2014, and 353 seats in 2019. However, the main point of shock has come from the performance of Congress and the INDIA bloc, who have maintained a steadfast 200+ seats since the initial polling rounds. Out of the nine odd exit polls that came out with results recently, none had predicted the INDIA bloc to win over 150-170 seats. As the tallying moves into its final phases, let’s look at how exit polls performed in the previous election cycles. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2014 elections" comment="subhead" text="2014 elections">2014 elections</cmsannotation> In 2014, 834 million voters participated in the largest-ever elections worldwide — only to be surpassed by the 2019 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections. An average of eight exit polls had indicated that the BJP would see a 283-seat victory, while the opposition would have had to settle for 105 seats. Just as predicted, the BJP saw a landslide victory and swooped in 282 of the 543 seats, with a vote percentage of 31.3%. This win was a huge blow to the INC, which only won 44 seats compared to the 206 in 2009. Since a party must win at least 55 seats to become an official opposition party in India, the Congress’s defeat meant that there was no official opposition party for India. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2019 elections" comment="subhead" text="2019 elections">2019 elections</cmsannotation> The previous Lok Sabha elections turned out to be an even bigger win for the BJP! In 2019, exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would peak at 306 and that the INC-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would win just 120. However, the post-poll statistics turned out to be underwhelming. The BJP won a whopping 37.36% of the vote — the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections. It won 303 seats, while the NDA collectively won 352 seats. It was another crushing defeat for the Congress, which won just 52 seats, failing to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition once again.

Trends indicate INDIA maintaining 200+ seats, defying all exit poll predictions; how accurate have these surveys been since 2014?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in the state.</li><li>It's a significant shift in a conservative-leaning state that Trump won by eight points in 2020.</li></ul>A new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll</a> published on Saturday showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, a massive development in a state once <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">seen as a lock</a> for the former president.The Iowa poll — which is viewed as the gold standard of polling in the state and was conducted by the firm Selzer &amp; Co. — showed Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.Political experts told Business Insider that the Iowa poll is significant for the Harris campaign given that the demographic makeup of Iowa — rural, older, and largely white voters — is similar to some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">key swing states</a>."What makes Iowa a good conduit for states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, is because they're demographically very similar," John Conway, director of strategy for Republicans Voters Against Trump, said. He said all those states have a large share of white voters.Christian Grose, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California, also said the results bode well for Harris in other states. "This is probably good news for Harris in Wisconsin, Michigan, and elsewhere. If Harris is competitive in Iowa, combined with recent polling showing Trump with single-digit leads in Kansas and other red places, it bodes well for Harris."He added: "It's one poll, so normally, I wouldn't read too much into one poll, but this is a pollster who's pretty good and has been working in Iowa for a long time."The pollster — J. Ann Selzer — has had particular success predicting the Iowa caucuses, he added.Selzer founded Selzer &amp; Co. in 1996. She <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/">conducts polling</a> for private companies and public opinion surveys but Iowa politics remains her greatest strength, FiveThirtyEight reported in 2016.A representative for Selzer &amp; Co. did not respond to a request for comment.Patricia Crouse, adjunct professor of political science at the University of New Haven, said the Iowa poll is just one data point that shouldn't be used to predict the actual outcome, but that it's still a significant development for Harris considering Trump won the Hawkeye State in 2020 by eight points over now-President Joe Biden."I think we have to be very, very careful about how we're using polls in terms of predicting the outcome of this election, but I do think that even if it's just a moment in time — this poll that was just done — I still think it's significant that Harris is leading," she said. "Even if they were tied in Iowa, I think that's significant."<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump in Iowa." height="2636" width="3955" msid="114918467" hostid="261" sizebytes="223688"></div>Crouse said that Iowa's demographic is predominantly white and consists of an older generation of voters who typically skew Republican. That Harris might be gaining in a state like Iowa may signal that a different set of voters, including women and younger voters, are being underrepresented in polling."If Iowa flips to Harris, then it's possible that some of these swing states are being underestimated in their polls in terms of favorability for her," she said.<h2 id="ed1b80b8-1545-4cb3-b5aa-ee6ed22c4c35">Iowa's political shift has been dramatic</h2>A poll showing a Democratic presidential nominee with a lead in Iowa would not have caused such a stir in the past, given its longtime political competitiveness.In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state by less than a point over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Bush flipped the state to the GOP in his 2004 presidential reelection bid, winning it by a razor-thin 0.67% margin.Iowa later played a key role in the launch of Barack Obama's presidency. In 2008, Obama won the state's Democratic caucus, which propelled his candidacy through the primary race. He went on to win the state easily that year and in his 2012 reelection bid.But the state has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-democrats-struggling-ascendant-gop-2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-2023-8">tilted toward the GOP</a> in recent years.Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state in the 2016 presidential election. Republican Joni Ernst was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 and continues to hold her seat. And the state legislature is dominated by conservative Republicans.But some cracks are starting to show in the GOP's armor.The Republican-controlled legislature passed a six-week abortion ban that went into effect in July and has proven to be unpopular with Iowans, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/22/most-iowans-support-legal-abortion-oppose-iowas-six-week-ban-new-iowa-poll-shows-fetal-heartbeat-law/75180451007/">according to polling</a> conducted by Selzer &amp; Co. in September.In the survey, 59% of Iowa adults opposed the new abortion law, while only 37% of Iowa adults approved of it. And notably, 69% of female respondents in the Selzer poll opposed the law, while only 27% of Iowa women backed the new restrictions.The law also appears to have taken a toll on the approval ratings of Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.In the Selzer poll taken in September, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/24/rob-sand-tops-kim-reynolds-brenna-bird-iowa-elected-officials-governors-support-slips-lowest/75196313007/">Reynolds' job approval rating</a> sat at 45%, while 50% of Iowans disapproved of her performance. Since becoming governor in 2017, Reynolds has generally been one of the state's most popular politicians, which makes her most recent approval rating all the more striking.

Kamala Harris' new lead in top Iowa poll could bode well for her in some key swing states

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Benjamin Chadwick — a dual citizen of France and the UK — voted in two national elections this year.</li><li>He writes that in both nations, there's been a shift away from moderate politics toward extremes.</li></ul>I was born and raised in England, but this June marked 10 years since I moved to Paris.I came to France on a student exchange in 2012 and met my now partner. We moved to Paris together in 2014. When the British people voted to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-reasons-and-analysis-on-a-brexit-vote-2016-6">leave the European Union</a> in 2016, I decided I wanted to live in France long-term.I planned to apply for French citizenship as soon as I could. I didn't know exactly how the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-and-boris-johnson-explained-2019-9">Brexit vote</a> would impact me at the time, but I wanted to secure my right to vote in French elections or perhaps move elsewhere in the EU later in life.It took me another three years to meet the residency requirements for citizenship. In the meantime, I began paying closer attention to politics in France. As I wasn't yet a citizen, I couldn't vote in 2017's presidential election, leaving me feeling powerless. But I was relieved about the result.For much of its history, French politics has been dominated by two parties, representing the left and right. But in 2017, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39130072">neither historic party made it to the second round</a>. Emmanuel Macron <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/03/emmanuel-macron-french-presidential-candidate-grassroots-movement">ran with a centrist campaign</a>, while Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, campaigned on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/french-presidential-election-how-the-candidates-compare">anti-immigration and nationalist ideals</a>. Her brand of populism had succeeded in the previous year with Trump's election — but failed in France, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidential-election-in-landslide-marine-le-pen-2017-5">Macron defeated her</a>, becoming France's President.By the time the 2024 elections came around in France and the UK, I was a citizen of both countries and eager to exercise my vote. In the UK, I wanted to remove the unpopular governing party, the Conservatives, from office. In France, I wanted to keep Le Pen's party out.In recent years, I've watched moderate ideals lose out to reactionary politics again and again, from Trump to Brexit to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/mapped-europe-far-right-government-power-politics-eu-italy-finalnd-hungary-parties-elections-polling/">success of hard-right parties in Europe</a> and elsewhere. Britain looked to be moving in the opposite direction with a projected victory for the center-left Labour Party, which made me feel optimistic, but France looked to be heading into reactionary territory.Political disagreements are a normal part of any healthy democracy. But increasingly, these disagreements are about our fundamental values and even the nature of truth itself. With a big election still to come this year in the US, I'm concerned about this move toward the extremes.<h2 id="86ebff10-5fe7-40c0-8b40-c666fa355f56">Politics in France and the UK has been turbulent in recent years</h2>My first national French elections as a voter were in 2022 when the National Rally continued its seemingly unstoppable rise — Le Pen came <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/french-presidential-election-results-2022-macron-wins-rcna25555">closer than ever</a> to the French presidency.Le Pen became leader of France's right-wing populist "National Front" party in 2011 and renamed it "National Rally" in 2018. Despite the rebrand, the party continues to focus on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240620-how-france-s-far-right-changed-the-debate-on-immigration">drastically reducing migration</a>. France has seen major social unrest in recent years, including protests against <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/08/nuit-debout-protesters-occupy-french-cities-in-a-revolutionary-call-for-change">labor</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50971439">pension</a> reforms, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/20191116-a-year-of-insurgency-how-yellow-vests-left-indelible-mark-on-french-politics">rising fuel costs, and the cost of living</a>. Le Pen has capitalized on a mistrust of mainstream politics, gaining popularity in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/21/counryside-marine-le-pen-forgotten-france-presidential-election-2017">rural</a> areas where some of these <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/how-hi-vis-yellow-vest-became-symbol-of-protest-beyond-france-gilets-jaunes">protest movements</a> have been popular.Across the Channel, the political landscape was no less chaotic. The Brexit vote was a seismic shock, and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-brexit-deal-startups-limbo-financial-services-data-2020-12">deal with the EU</a> was only reached years later after Boris Johnson, whom Donald Trump rather unflatteringly labeled "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/23/trump-boris-johnson-britain-trump-uk-prime-minister">Britain Trump</a>," came to power in 2019.Johnson's center-right Conservative party had been in power since 2010 and remained so until the July 2024 election. Revelations of<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/partygate-sue-gray-report-details-2022-5"> lockdown-era parties</a> in Johnson's offices forced his resignation in 2022, and life for many Britons kept getting worse under his successors, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.As in many other countries, wages were failing to keep up with a sharp rise in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-of-living-crisis-uk-people-turn-to-tiktok-2022-11">cost of living</a>. Years of budget cuts meant public services were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/30/uk-public-services-policy-institute-for-government-report">crumbling</a>. Yet despite bold promises, I feel the government <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/65647308">failed to address</a> this and seemed more eager to stoke hatred <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/08/stop-the-boats-sunaks-anti-asylum-slogan-echoes-australia-harsh-policy">against migrants</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68229785">other minorities</a>.One of Rishi Sunak's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64164339">often repeated pledges</a>, both while in office and campaigning for the 2024 election, was his mission to "stop the boats," referencing the illegal immigrants arriving in Britain via small-craft vessels.Back in France, Macron still held the presidency. He initially ran on a centrist platform in 2017, aiming to find <a target="_blank" href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/emmanuel-macrons-la-republique-en-marche-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-french-presidents-groundbreaking-new-party-ahead-of-the-elections-a3563256.html">common ground</a> between the left and right blocs. However, during his seven years in office, he's been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/01/12/new-french-cabinet-reflects-macron-s-electorate-shift-to-the-right_6426251_5.html">accused of</a> veering to the right, appointing ministers who deny police <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/10/14/french-ministers-denial-police-abuses-against-migrants-flies-face-facts">brutality</a> toward migrants, and positioning himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-war-on-woke-laboratoire-de-la-republique/">against "wokism."</a>On June 9, a historic <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/european-union-parliament-election-far-right-nationalist-parties-2024-6">European Parliament election</a> took place, with Le Pen's far-right National Rally netting a record 31.4% of French votes, more than twice as many as Macron's centrist alliance. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/le-pens-party-trounces-macrons-eu-vote-exit-polls-2024-06-09/">Claiming the country needed "clarification,"</a> Macron called for a national parliamentary election on June 30 and July 7. Even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/06/17/how-macron-threw-his-supporters-into-a-panic-by-calling-snap-elections_6675018_5.html">his own allies</a> didn't understand.In the lead-up to the UK election on July 4, opinion polls <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-election-final-mega-polls-predict-total-tory-annihilation-labour-win/">predicted</a> a huge majority for the center-left Labour Party. In France, I feared the National Rally would capitalize on their European victory and take control of the Assembly. As an immigrant, I didn't want to be ruled by a party that routinely demonizes migrants.<h2 id="59a6f7d6-73eb-4e8f-b47a-503a385d4dc3">The elections have made me concerned about extremism and division in both countries</h2>In the end, Labour did secure a historic majority in the UK, but only with a tiny increase in vote share. Meanwhile, Reform UK, a party led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage that campaigned on "freezing" immigration, reneging on net zero climate goals, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-manifesto-you-dont-have-to/">banning "transgender ideology"</a> in schools, netted more than 14% of the vote. This made them the third-largest party in terms of vote share. I was concerned that so many people were willing to vote for such a reactionary party.On top of this, one of Labour's first challenges in power was to deal with widespread <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/arrests-violence-riots-uk-far-right-wing-protests-immigration-2024-8">anti-immigration riots</a> targeting people of color. The protests that spread across the UK this summer were brought about by online disinformation about a stabbing where three young girls were killed.In France, the National Rally failed to get the majority many feared. A "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/07/07/french-elections-far-right-s-rise-blocked-by-republican-front_6676995_5.html">republican front</a>", consisting of other parties joining together to counter the far-right threat, worked better than expected, making the National Rally the third-largest group in terms of seats. But they still wound up with a much bigger voice in parliament than before and were by far the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-left-wing-marine-le-pen-far-right-national-rally-jordan-bardella-seats-new-popular-front/">largest party in terms of vote share</a>.I feel that France and the UK are dealing with many of the same problems: political polarization, the scapegoating of migrants, and an increasing focus on culture wars.<h2 id="c3bc22d1-7f74-40d0-a217-dc97700fc623">I'm worried history will repeat itself when the US elections come around</h2>This summer's events on both sides of the Channel have shown that as people grow disillusioned with the status quo, the extremes are becoming increasingly attractive.The National Rally continues to progress. I fear this year's vote has merely delayed their arrival in government, rather than preventing it. In the UK, this summer's far-right riots show that even when progressives win at the ballot box, the extremes are never far away.European eyes are now looking across the Atlantic.Donald Trump has been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/27/magazine/trump-rallies-rhetoric.html">embracing conspiracy theories and referencing an "invasion" of migrants "conquering" the USA</a> in his 2024 campaign. His victory could have serious consequences for Americans, especially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/trump-harris-abortion/">women</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/10/trump-promises-rollback-on-trans-rights-heres-what-hes-said/?sh=51549ef4dae0">minorities</a>.In Europe, observers like me are worried about what his leadership would mean for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-signal-us-stop-ukraine-election-russia-volodymyr-zelenskyy-vladimir-putin/">foreign policy</a> in today's turbulent world. Trump's victory would galvanize European politicians like Le Pen and Farage and their supporters. Populist politics may not have won their national elections, but the most powerful nation in the world and its leader are behind them, normalizing their rhetoric.But if he loses, I'm still anxious about what will happen next, given the January 6 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/five-things-we-learned-about-the-insurrection-in-2022-2023-1">capitol riots</a> in 2021.Kamala Harris has reenergized the presidential race and given hope to those who oppose Trump. But even if she wins, the deep divisions in American society won't go away — they haven't in the UK or France.

Voting in the UK and French elections taught me a concerning lesson that Americans should heed when heading to the polls

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider.</li><li>There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a Harris win.</li></ul>When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">even the stock market</a>. However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They've successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably.Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out."It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November.As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, prediction markets "move pretty significantly and pretty quickly in response to that information," he said.<h2 id="7dc81ce7-8b15-46b0-8923-323c06d08f5d">The user base is (literally) invested in the outcome</h2>There's a range of participants in betting markets, and most are making highly informed wagers, Crane said.There are recreational bettors who may just have an interest in whatever topic is up for debate, as well as professional bettors and betting syndicates whose livelihoods are at stake. There are also companies looking to hedge risk if they may be affected by candidates' proposed policies. With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723813625985">$606.5 million</a> riding on the election outcome on Polymarket alone, participants watch the news closely, Crane said. Even if they aren't based in the US, they are just as clued into election updates since their money is on the line.He likens it to sports betting: "I don't need to be a professional football player to know how to understand what's going to happen in a football game. And in fact, I could be better at it than players in the game from a betting or informational perspective," he said.<h2 id="fb2c38a6-7896-42bc-9923-760bf527f3ee">Higher participation could boost accuracy</h2>Crane says that prediction markets could become even more accurate— and avoid any potential risk of manipulation by political groups —if they are fully legalized in the US.The most popular prediction markets are largely unavailable to US participants. US-based users can't bet on Polymarket, and Betfair, one of the longest-running events markets, is only available in some US states.PredictIt, a project founded by researchers in New Zealand, has operated in the US under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 2014, but limits American bettors to up to $850 in wagers, and only 5,000 betters can participate in each market.PredictIt is facing headwinds from the CFTC, which is looking to outlaw all election betting. If passed, Americans wouldn't be legally allowed to participate in any prediction markets, though some may try using VPNs to bypass regulations, which likely occurs now.Crane also said more participation would make manipulation less likely.While there's no hard evidence, he guesses that political bets may be especially prone to attempts at manipulation or influence. "Everything kind of feeds off of everything else, and by trying to limit one aspect of it, or trying to police one aspect of it, it can often ruin the entire market function," Crane said."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets."

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

The counting of votes cast by 64.2 crore hopeful Indian voters during the six-week-long 18th <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> officially began at 8 AM today and it is suffice to say that the air is crackling with equal parts excitement and trepidation. Over 700 aspiring parties participated in the world’s largest democratic exercise. But the main duelling parties remain consistent with previous trends: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) led by Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> and the opposition bloc led by the <keyword id="19964138" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-National-Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian National Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Indian National Congress">Indian National Congress</keyword> (INC). Modi is shooting for a third, historic win after spending the last ten years in office, but the road ahead does not seem as smooth as anticipated. A political party in India requires at least 272 seats to cross the majority mark in the 543-member lower house of the Indian parliament, the Lok Sabha. The PM has audaciously declared that he is expecting a huge win exceeding 400 seats, the slogan ab ki baar 400 paar is stuck in every Indian’s head — irrespective of their political inclination. The Congress-led India bloc, on the other hand, is aiming for a relatively modest 295. On Saturday, most exit poll surveys predicted 350-370 seats for the BJP and between 107-140 seats for the opposition. However, the early trends are showing a very different picture with the INDIA bloc exceeding expectations in many states. Polls have been off the mark a few times before, but as NDA looks poised to win a third term, albeit with a few last-minute struggles, here’s a look back at the previous elections responsible for Mr Narendra Modi’s unmatchable dominance over <keyword id="20184421" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-politics" source="keywords">Indian politics</keyword>. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Inside BJP’s decade-long winning streak" comment="subhead" text="Inside BJP’s decade-long winning streak">Inside BJP’s decade-long winning streak </cmsannotation>The BJP has come a long way since 1984 when the party won just two seats. Its pro-Hindutva stance pushed it to prominence over the decades, especially in the 1990s. The BJP was in power for a considerable amount of time under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s leadership at the turn of the century. But the kind of support that Narendra Modi has received since 2014 has been unmatched in the history of modern Indian politics. In 2014, the BJP saw a surprising landslide victory with 282 of the 543 seats. But what factors contributed to its sweeping win with a 31.3% majority? Throughout its campaigning ahead of the general elections that year, the BJP kept stressing its interest in fixing the economy and combating corruption allegedly caused by the Congress party’s rather inept governing. Modi, who called himself a chowkidar or watchman, vowed to set the government and bureaucracy to rights. He promised more jobs for young Indians and even launched a social media campaign to appeal to the younger generation. Many experts suggested that Modi created the brand “NaMo'' for himself through relentless media campaigning, something that <keyword id="19895780" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rahul-gandhi" source="keywords">Rahul Gandhi</keyword> and other major political leaders could not do at the time. Additionally, he is also said to have had the support of the 45,000 country-wide RSS branches — the Hindu cultural nationalist parent of the BJP. However, after the leader had managed to comfortably settle into his new role as the Prime Minister of India, he announced the demonetisation of all ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series on 8 November 2016. As per a 2018 report from the Reserve Bank of India said that “the effort had failed to remove black money from the economy”. Modi was widely criticised for the way this move impacted the middle-class people of India. Despite this setback as well as criticism against his economic reforms like GST, he continued to implement bold policy changes to strengthen the core economy. His tilt towards a digital economy and seemingly tough actions against corrupt practices received widespread acclaim. He also successfully invoked a strong sense of nationalism and security in the people through the Balakot airstrike, a bombing raid conducted by Indian warplanes in February 2019. And it worked! BJP came to power again in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this victory being bigger than the last. The BJP won a whopping 37.36% of the vote — the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections with 303 seats. However, similar to 2019, towards the end of his second term in 2024, joblessness appears to be on the rise and incomes of farmers continue to plummet. Amid major issues like food inflation and the threat of AI to the job market, the ruling party relied on not-so-subtle religious polarisation and a ton of welfare programmes. From being chowkidar in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been depicted to be a saint today by many of his followers. While past leaders in India have tried to hold on to their secular image, Mr Modi has been seen flouting this convention on multiple occasions, expressing that he takes pride in his religion. With crores of followers still supporting him, the PM seems to be already on a path to victory. Only time will tell if the struggles during the last phases of this year’s election will come back to haunt him. In the meantime, stay tuned to Business Insider India for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/elections/lok-sabha-election-results-2024-live-counting-begins-at-8-am-as-bjp-led-nda-hopes-for-a-historic-third-term/articleshow/110685785.cms">more updates on the Lok Sabha elections 2024</a>.

As PM Modi awaits his third big win, here’s how BJP created history during the 2014 & 2019 Lok Sabha elections

A staggering 93 per cent of the candidates who won the 2024 <keyword id="56978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections</keyword> are <keyword id="6366800" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="crorepatis" source="Orion">crorepatis</keyword>, up from 88 per cent in 2019, according to an analysis by poll rights body <keyword id="484381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Association-of-Democratic-Reforms" source="Orion">Association of Democratic Reforms</keyword> (<keyword id="45376" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ADR" source="Orion">ADR</keyword>). The top three wealthiest candidates are TDP's Chandra Sekhar Pemmasani from Andhra Pradesh's Guntur constituency with assets worth Rs 5,705 crore, BJP's Konda Vishweshwar Reddy from Telangana's Chevella with total assets amounting to Rs 4,568 crore and BJP's Naveen Jindal from Haryana's Kurukshetra with assets worth Rs 1,241 crore. Out of the 543 winning candidates, 504 are crorepatis, the analysis found. In 2019, 475 (88 per cent) winning candidates were crorepatis and 443 (82 per cent) in 2014. The trend indicates a steady climb since 2009 when only 315 (58 per cent) MPs were crorepatis. According to the analysis, 227 (95 per cent) of the BJP's 240 winning candidates, 92 (93 per cent) of the Congress' 99, 21 (95 per cent) of the DMK's 22, 27 (93 per cent) of the TMC's 29 and 34 (92 per cent) of the Samajwadi Party's 37 candidates have declared assets worth more than Rs 1 crore. All winning candidates of the AAP (3), the JDU (12) and the TDP (16) are crorepatis, ADR data showed. The analysis also delves into candidates' chances of winning based on their financial backgrounds. It found that the probability of a crorepati candidate clinching victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections stood at 19.6 per cent, compared to a meagre 0.7 per cent for candidates with assets less than a crore. The analysis also provides a breakdown of wealth distribution among the winning candidates. The data showed that 42 per cent of the candidates possess assets totalling Rs 10 crore and above. While 19 per cent of the candidates fall within the bracket of Rs 5 to 10 crore, 32 per cent hold assets ranging between Rs 1 and 5 crore. Only about 1 per cent of the winning candidates have assets worth less than Rs 20 lakh. Among major parties, the average assets per winning candidate vary significantly. The TDP leads with an average of Rs 442.26 crore per winner, followed by the BJP with Rs 50.04 crore, the DMK with Rs 31.22 crore, the Congress with Rs 22.93 crore, TMC with Rs 17.98 crore and SP with Rs 15.24 crore. The analysis also highlights disparities within the financial profiles of winning candidates. While some boast of substantial assets, others have relatively low worth. For instance, BJP's Jyotirmay Singh Mahato from West Bengal's Purulia has declared assets totalling a mere Rs 5 lakh. Similarly, TMC's Mitali Bag from West Bengal's Arambag holds assets worth Rs 7 lakh. Assets of SP's Priya Saroj from Uttar Pradesh's Machhlishahr are valued at Rs 11 lakh. In addition, the analysis identifies candidates with high liabilities. TDP's Pemmasani tops the list with liabilities exceeding Rs 1,038 crore. DMK's S Jagathratchakan from Tamil Nadu's Arakkonam has liabilities worth Rs 649 crore and TDP's Prabhakar Reddy Vemireddy from Andhra Pradesh's Nellore has liabilities worth Rs 197 crore.

93% of Lok Sabha 2024 poll winners are crorepatis: ADR analysis

Aligarh (<keyword id="19894922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uttar-Pradesh" source="keywords">Uttar Pradesh</keyword>) [India], April 9 (ANI): Every election season ushers in a slew of party symbols that range from the mundane to the outlandish. The Lok Sabha elections 2024 are no different. <keyword id="19941423" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Independent-candidate" source="keywords">Independent candidate</keyword> from Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh, <keyword id="21244546" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pandit-Keshav-Dev" source="keywords">Pandit Keshav Dev</keyword>, decided to make the most of what the <keyword id="19895782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission">Election Commission</keyword> has allotted to him as the poll symbol- a pair of slippers. Aiming to build recall of people, Dev was seen sporting a garland of 7 slippers around his neck during his campaign. Lok Sabha polls will be held in seven phases beginning April 19. Uttar Pradesh, which sends the maximum number of MPs, 80, to Parliament, will vote in all seven phases. Voting for phases one and two will be held on April 19 and April 26. Next, the state will once again poll in phases three and four on May 7 and May 13. The Uttar Pradesh electorate will also vote in phases five, six and seven on May 20, May 23 and June 1 respectively. Aligarh will go for polls in the second phase on April 26. The counting of votes will take place on June 4. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP candidate Satish Kumar Gautam won from the Aligarh garnering 656215 votes. BJP defeated BSP Dr. Ajeet Baliyan who got 426954 votes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 71 seats with a 42.6 per cent vote share, while Congress settled for only 2 seats with 7.5 per cent of votes. (ANI)

A pair of slippers - the most unique poll symbol of an independent from Aligarh

Amaravati, Sons of at least six former Chief Ministers of <keyword id="19896313" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="andhra-pradesh" source="keywords">Andhra Pradesh</keyword> will be in the fray for May 13 simultaneous polls to the Andhra Pradesh <keyword id="19906943" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="assembly" source="keywords">Assembly</keyword> and Lok Sabha while daughters of two former Chief Ministers are also likely to join the race. Leading the list of high-profile candidates is the Chief Minister and <keyword id="20270569" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ysr" source="keywords">YSR</keyword> <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="congress" source="keywords">Congress</keyword> Party (YSRCP) President Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy. The son of the former Chief Minister of erstwhile united Andhra Pradesh late Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy will be seeking re-election from the Pulivendula constituency in YSR family's home district Kadapa. Pulivendula has been considered a pocket borough of the YSR family since 1978. Jagan Mohan Reddy will be seeking re-election from here for a third consecutive term. His sister and state Congress Chief Y. S. Sharmila is likely to enter the fray from the Kadapa Lok Sabha constituency to challenge the sitting MP and cousin Y. S. Avinash Reddy. Kadapa has also been the stronghold of the YSR family since 1989. Children of another former Chief Minister and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) founder N. T. Rama Rao will also be testing their political fortunes. Interestingly, like YSR, the children of <keyword id="20237138" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ntr" source="keywords">NTR</keyword> will also be contesting on tickets of different parties. NTR's son and popular actor N. Balakrishna will be looking for a hat-trick as MLA from the Hindupur constituency. NTR himself was elected from Hindupur in 1985, 1989 and 1994. His elder son N. Harikrishna was also elected from here in the by-poll held in 1996 following the death of the thespian. NTR's daughter D. <keyword id="21049483" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purandeswari" source="keywords">Purandeswari</keyword>, who is president of the state BJP, is also likely to contest for Parliament. A former union minister, Purandeswari had quit Congress to join the BJP in 2014 after the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. TDP and BJP are contesting the polls in alliance with the Jana Sena Party of popular actor <keyword id="20009920" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pawan-kalyan" source="keywords">Pawan Kalyan</keyword>. Former Chief Minister and TDP President N. Chandrababu Naidu's son <keyword id="19925616" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nara-lokesh" source="keywords">Nara Lokesh</keyword> will again test his political fortunes from the Mangalagiri Assembly seat. He had unsuccessfully contested the same seat in 2019. Another former Chief Minister <keyword id="21049485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nadendla-bhaskar" source="keywords">Nadendla Bhaskar</keyword> Rao's son <keyword id="21049484" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nadendla-manohar" source="keywords">Nadendla Manohar</keyword> is contesting for Assembly from Tenali on a Jana Sena ticket. Chairman of Jana Sena's Political Affairs Committee, Manohar was elected to the Assembly of the united Andhra Pradesh from Tenail in 2004 and 2009 on the Congress ticket. He had served as the last Speaker of the united Andhra Pradesh Assembly. Earlier, Bhaskar Rao was elected from Tenali on Congress ticket in 1989. Former Chief Minister Kotla Vijayabhaskar Reddy's son Kotla Jayasurya Prakash Reddy will be contesting for Assembly from Dhone constituency. He will take on Finance Minister Buggana Rajendranath Reddy of YSRCP. Vijaya Bhaskar Reddy was elected from Dhone on Congress ticket in 1994. Jayasurya Prakash Reddy's wife K. Sujatha Reddy was also elected from the constituency on the Congress ticket in 2004. Former Chief Minister N. Janardhan Reddy's son N. Ramkumar Reddy will be testing his political fortunes from Venkatagiri Assembly constituency on YSRCP ticket. He is making his electoral debut. Janardhan Reddy contested on the Congress ticket from Venkatagiri in 1989. His wife N. Rajyalakshmi had also been elected twice from here in 1999 and 2004.

Next-gen enters poll arena: Sons of 6 ex-CMs in fray in Andhra

New Delhi, Poll strategist <keyword id="4300245" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="sunil-kanugolu" source="Orion">Sunil Kanugolu</keyword> has yet again proven to be the man with the Midas touch, plotting the Congress' amazing turnaround in Telangana months after being the architect of the grand old party's return to power in Karnataka. Starting with Prashant Kishor's I-PAC, Kanugolu was largely credited for shaping the Congress' win in Karnataka and was later accorded Cabinet rank in the Siddaramaiah government. This time, Kanugolu along with PCC chief A Revanth Reddy formed a formidable pair to chalk out the Congress' strategy to pull down the K Chandrashekhar Rao-led BRS government that was eying a third term in the southern state. The Congress was headed for victory in Telangana while it was staring at crushing defeats in the Hindi heartland states of <keyword id="6355554" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="madhya-pradesh" source="Orion">Madhya Pradesh</keyword>, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Kanugolu had also made forays in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh following a directive from the party's central leadership but regional satraps Ashok Gehlot and Kamal Nath reportedly were not on the same page as the poll strategist. Ahead of the Rajasthan elections, Kanugolu had made an assessment about the winnability of probable candidates but Gehlot reportedly did not agree to his suggestions and brought in Naresh Arora's Designboxed to construct the Congress government's narrative in the run-up to the assembly polls. Sources say that the success of Kanugolu in Karnataka and Telangana was the result of the free hand given to him and allowing his team to work freely. Kanugolu, who hails from Karnataka and is in his early 40s, has been considered largely as the brain behind the Congress' narrative in Karnataka with the 'PayCM' campaign against the BJP. In the run-up to the polls in Telangana, he highlighted the alleged corruption of the K Chandrashekhar Rao dispensation as part of Congress' campaign that seemed to have struck a chord with the people. The campaigns run by the Congress in Karnataka and Telangana have been very similar as both highlighted the alleged graft of the ruling dispensation and projected welfare guarantees that seemed to have struck an instant connection with the public. Interestingly, Kanugolu has also been involved in several BJP poll campaigns in the past. In 2018, he worked with the BJP in Karnataka and the party managed to become the single largest party with 104 seats. He had also worked on Narendra Modi's campaign in 2014, as well as the party's political campaigns in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. Kanugolu, a former consultant with McKinsey, was also associated with DMK chief MK Stalin and oversaw the party's '<keyword id="3576832" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="namakku-naame" source="Orion">Namakku Naame</keyword>' (we are for ourselves) campaign during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In 2021, he also worked with AIADMK against the DMK and led the party to win 75 seats in the Tamil Nadu assembly elections. Kanugolu had joined the Congress last year and worked closely with the Karnataka campaign. He is also credited with strategising <keyword id="5268" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rahul-gandhi" source="Orion">Rahul Gandhi</keyword>'s cross-country 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' from Kanyakumari to Kashmir last year. Having delivered Karnataka and Telangana to the Congress, Kanugolu is likely to be given more responsibilities by the party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls.

Sunil Kanugolu: The poll strategist behind Congress' win in Telangana

The <keyword id="15379095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-smartphone-market-declined" source="Orion">global smartphone market declined</keyword> by 12 per cent (year-on-year) even as it grew by 2 per cent (on-quarter) to reach 301 million units in Q3, its lowest Q3 level since 2014. According to <keyword id="6439913" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Counterpoint-Research" source="Orion">Counterpoint Research</keyword>, the <keyword id="390059" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="smartphone-market" source="Orion">smartphone market</keyword> remained under pressure given deteriorating economic conditions. Ongoing international political tensions resulting in economic uncertainty hit the smartphone market, even though it reversed its slide below the 300-million-mark last quarter thanks to a slight quarterly recovery in Apple and Samsung shipments, according to the report. "Russia's escalating war in Ukraine, ongoing China-US political distrust and tensions, growing inflationary pressures across regions, a growing fear of recession, and weakening national currencies all caused a further dent in consumer sentiment, hitting already weakened demand," explained senior analyst Harmeet Singh Walia. Apple was the only brand among the top-five players to grow 2 per cent YoY, increasing its market share by two percentage points to 16 per cent. Samsung's shipments declined by 8 per cent YoY but grew 5 per cent QoQ to reach 64 million, thanks to record pre-sales of its premium fold and flip smartphones, compared with the same quarter last year. Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo, recovered slightly after receiving heavy beatings due to lockdowns in China in Q2, and as they captured more of the market ceded by Apple and Samsung's exit from Russia. "With the full force of the latest iPhone launch being felt in Q4, we expect further quarterly improvement in the coming quarter, although central banks' attempts to control inflation will further reduce consumer demand," said associate director Jan Stryjak. However, shipments are unlikely to reach last year's levels, let alone pre-pandemic Q4 levels of over 400 million units. "Looking further ahead into 2023, we expect sluggish demand with lengthening replacement rates, especially in the first half of the year," Stryjak added. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/isro-carries-out-key-test-of-its-heaviest-rockets-engine/articleshow/95158967.cms">ISRO carries out key test of its heaviest rocket's engine</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/rishi-sunak-overtakes-labours-starmer-in-latest-popularity-poll/articleshow/95158210.cms">Rishi Sunak overtakes Labour's Starmer in latest popularity poll</a>

Global smartphone market sinks to lowest Q3 level since 2014

As India nears the results of 17th Lok Sabha election 2019 with the last phase of polling on Sunday, it is yet to be seen if the Narendra Modi-led BJP government will make it to power this time. While the exit polls have been predicted incorrectly in the past, the 2014 exit polls were found to be nearly accurate. Looking back to the data compiled during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the exit polls portrayed nearly the same picture as that on the result day. Reportedly, the exit polls witnessed a majority of seats to go to BJP. The ruling party had won 282 seats during the last elections, while the Congress managed a handful of seats(44) from all the constituencies. The BJP government won majority of seats in Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Goa and Uttarakhand. Interestingly, AIADMK stood third on the list, winning 37 of the 39 constituencies. Mamata Banerjee led TMC won 34 of the 42 seats. The 2019 general elections were started on 11 April 2019, and will conclude on 23 May, as the result of the seven phases gets declared.

Exit polls 2019: How accurate were the pollsters the last time

<ul class="summary-list"><li>GOP Sen. <keyword id="11909692" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="lindsey-graham" source="Orion">Lindsey Graham</keyword> said he would be "shocked" if Trump passed on a 2024 White House bid.</li><li>"All the polling shows he would be the front-runner by a country mile," he told The Washington Post.</li></ul>Sen. Lindsey Graham said he would be "shocked" if former President <keyword id="11914386" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="donald-trump" source="Orion">Donald Trump</keyword> passed on a White House bid in 2024, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/11/republican-president-2024-trump/">according to The Washington Post</a>.Graham — a South Carolina Republican who morphed from Trump critic in 2016 to legislative ally during the former president's time in the Oval Office — pointed to <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/">polling</a> that has overwhelmingly shown the former commander-in-chief at the top of surveys among GOP voters."I'll be shocked if he doesn't run," the senator told the newspaper. "All the polling shows he would be the front-runner by a country mile. The day that Trump makes it clear he's going to run — it would be a mountain to climb to beat him."Graham told The Post that Trump will do quite well if the Republican contest is centered on policy issues."If it's a policy election, he's in good shape," he said. "It's his primary to lose."However, several potential opponents of the former president have a different take on the subject, pointing out that several early GOP presidential frontrunners in past cycles have fizzled out as the election came into full view.In June 2006, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was a highly-touted Republican figure who many saw as one of the party's strongest potential standard-bearers to succeed then-President George W. Bush.Giuliani also led in many of the pre-election polls in 2007; <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/26803/giuliani-solidifies-lead-republican-nomination-poll.aspx">a Gallup survey</a> that March showed the former GOP mayor as the top pick among primary voters, winning 44% of the vote, well ahead of the eventual 2008 presidential nominee, John McCain, who earned 20% support in the poll.In the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, all eyes were on Republican Gov. Scott Walker, a Midwestern conservative star who had won his initial 2010 gubernatorial race, survived a 2012 recall election, and won reelection in 2014.Despite Walker's record of curbing the power of labor unions and seeking to restrict abortion, which appealed to the increasingly conservative primary electorate, his presidential candidacy fizzled.And then Trump — who had never run for elected office but had universal name recognition — eventually jumped into the race and captured the White House.

Sen. Lindsey Graham says he'd be 'shocked' if Trump doesn't run for president in 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Democrat Wes Moore has a hefty lead over GOP state Del. Dan Cox in the Maryland governor's race, per a new poll.</li><li>Per the Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, Moore lead Cox 60%-28% among registered voters.</li></ul>Democratic newcomer Wes Moore has a massive 32-percentage point lead over his challenger, Republican state Del. Dan Cox, in the Maryland governor's race as the contest heads into its final stretch, according to a newly-released Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.The <a href="https://docs-cdn-prod.news-engineering.aws.wapo.pub/publish_document/5da75237-c1ab-4efe-9e18-a3d5f13ffb8d/published/5da75237-c1ab-4efe-9e18-a3d5f13ffb8d.pdf">survey</a> showed Moore with a 60%-28% edge over Cox; nine percent of respondents were undecided.The results showed that 86% of Democrats backed Moore, with only 3% crossing over to support Cox.However, Cox earned a lower share of support among Republicans (71%) — not nearly enough for a GOP candidate to come close to winning in the solidly Democratic state. Moore, on the other hand, has the support of 22% of Republicans. Moore's crossover support with Republicans is similar to two-term GOP Gov. Larry Hogan's support among a substantial bloc of Democrats, which allowed the governor to win in 2014 and 2018 despite the Democratic strength in most other statewide races.Each candidate attracted the support of 38% of Independents. Yet, there is still time for both candidates to persuade this voting bloc, with 16% stating that they were undecided.Moore, an author and former nonprofit executive, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/maryland-governor-house-primary-elections-live-results-2022-7">captured</a> his party's nomination in a highly-competitive July multicandidate Democratic primary by focusing on kitchen-table economic issues and offering himself as a champion of issues including education reform, the environment, and improvements in public safety.If elected, Moore would be Maryland's first Black governor.Cox, a GOP state lawmaker from Frederick County who entered the race largely because of the state's COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, is backed by former President Donald Trump.The Washington Post-University of Maryland polled 810 registered voters from September 22 through 27; the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

You Searched For "Polls 2014" and got 13 results

Trends indicate INDIA maintaining 200+ seats, defying all exit poll predictions; how accurate have these surveys been since 2014?

Ankush Banerjee

Kamala Harris' new lead in top Iowa poll could bode well for her in some key swing states

Lloyd Lee,John L. Dorman

Voting in the UK and French elections taught me a concerning lesson that Americans should heed when heading to the polls

Benjamin Chadwick

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

Kelly Cloonan

As PM Modi awaits his third big win, here’s how BJP created history during the 2014 & 2019 Lok Sabha elections

Ashmita Gupta

93% of Lok Sabha 2024 poll winners are crorepatis: ADR analysis

PTI

A pair of slippers - the most unique poll symbol of an independent from Aligarh

ANI

Next-gen enters poll arena: Sons of 6 ex-CMs in fray in Andhra

IANS

Sunil Kanugolu: The poll strategist behind Congress' win in Telangana

PTI

Global smartphone market sinks to lowest Q3 level since 2014

IANS

Exit polls 2019: How accurate were the pollsters the last time

BI India Bureau

Sen. Lindsey Graham says he'd be 'shocked' if Trump doesn't run for president in 2024

John L. Dorman

Democrat Wes Moore has a 32-point lead over GOP challenger Dan Cox in the Maryland governor's race: poll

John L. Dorman

Popular Keywords

Buying Guides