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Indian companies across multiple sectors have reported disappointing results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, notes a new JM Financials report. Consequently, their poor performance has triggered stock price corrections for affected companies. The brunt of this weaker than expected earnings was largely borne by consumer centric sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), retail, and auto, which slacked largely due to dampened urban demand. For instance, India's largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a 5% YoY decline in its total domestic passenger vehicle wholesales, largely on the back of pent-up inventory. Similarly, Honda reported a staggering 23% YoY dip in its total sales during October 2024. A recent report by Bernstein noted that around 48% of the companies listed on the NSE100 index missed their earnings estimate for Q2FY25, the highest since March 2020. Most companies have mentioned deteriorated domestic demand, urban slowing, macroeconomic risk, and margin pressures as the main reasons behind the dip. "The quarter's earnings have made investors nervous," noted the JM Financials report. The challenging environment stems from multiple factors: softening consumer demand, rising input costs, and companies' limited ability to increase prices. Moreover, this is not limited to just one quarter. Companies have been reporting weak, single-digit earnings growth for the last six consecutive quarters. Data from India Data Hub also suggests that corporate profits of listed companies plunged by as much as 3.4% during the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This is in stark contrast to the year-ago period, where they had shot up by over 40% The oil and gas sector had a difficult quarter, with refiners hit by weak margins and city gas distributors struggling with higher input costs. Financial institutions showed mixed results. While government-owned banks reported strong numbers, microfinance institutions and some private lenders faced massive difficulties with their unsecured loans. Most notable amongst this was the case of IndusInd Bank, which saw its net profits dip by 40% amidst burgeoning provisions, which climbed 87% to Rs 1,820 crore in Q2, as against Rs 974 crore reported in the year-ago period. <h2>Markets head southwards</h2>The selling trend by FPIs has dragged down the major Indian indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, both of which have dropped by around 8% since the beginning of this selling spree in October. According to National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) data, FPIs offloaded equities worth a significant Rs 19,994 crore in just the first five trading sessions of November last week. The impact is clearly visible on Indian stock markets. Data suggests that while every sector in October closed the month in red, auto, oil and gas, and consumer durables were the most badly hit, each declining by as much as 10% during the month. Another indicator underlining the inherent weakness of the market was that the month saw only 242 stocks hit their 52-week high, significantly below the usual monthly average of 310.

India Inc. stares at an earnings dearth in Q2, FMCG, auto, and consumer durables falter

<keyword id="19898109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Paytm" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm">Paytm</keyword>'s parent company, <keyword id="20253123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="One97-Communications" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="One97 Communications" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="One97 Communications">One97 Communications</keyword>, declared its Q2FY25 results today, announcing a one-time, exceptional profit of Rs 1,345 crore during the quarter, thanks to the sale of its entertainment ticketing business. The company's PAT (profit after tax) stood at Rs 930 crore. Notably, without this windfall gain, Paytm's finances would still be in red, with the company racking up losses worth Rs 415 crore. Paytm was in red in the year-ago period as well, incurring losses worth Rs 290.5 crore. This windfall profit also improved Paytm's EBITDA by Rs 388 crore on a QoQ basis. The company's revenue also saw a slight uptick of 10.5% quarterly to Rs 1,659 crore, as opposed to Rs 1,501 crore in the previous quarter. But on a year-on-year basis, Paytm's revenue dipped significantly by 34%. The company also announced that it has entered into a DLG (<keyword id="23641220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Default-Loss-Guarantee" source="keywords">default loss guarantee</keyword>) model for its merchant loans of about Rs 225 crore with SMFG India Credit. Under this arrangement, Paytm will be first in line to take a hit in case of a loss that emerges from borrowers defaulting or skipping their payments. "Following the regulatory framework and the emerging market practice, we see increased willingness from lenders to partner and allocate more capital in the default loss. The DLG model will help to increase disbursements with the existing partners and expand partnerships with new lenders for the loan distribution,” said the company in its earnings release today. The company's revenue from its payment business also inched up 9% on a quarterly basis, along with its revenue from <keyword id="19976433" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-services" source="keywords">financial services</keyword>, which also grew by 34% QoQ. At present, Paytm's total merchant subscriptions stand at 1.12 crore, with the company garnering 3 lakh new merchants during the quarter. During the previous quarter, Paytm's <keyword id="20253122" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gross-merchandise-value" source="keywords">gross merchandise value</keyword> (GMV) also inched up by 5% on a sequential basis, which experts anticipate will continue in the coming quarters, just as India braces for the festive season. Per its release, Paytm aims to achieve <keyword id="23641219" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EBITDA-profitability" source="keywords">EBITDA profitability</keyword> (before ESOPs) by the fourth quarter of this financial year. However, investors remained unimpressed with Paytm's performance, with its share slipping by around 3.96% during the day to trade at Rs 697.20. The stock has a YTD (yield-to-date) of 7.91% during the year.

Paytm declares Q2 results, earns Rs 930 crore as windfall gains by way of sale of ticketing business to Zomato

New Delhi: As the earnings season for the second quarter of FY25 unfolds, <keyword id="19959986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-sector-banks" source="keywords">public sector banks</keyword> (PSBs) are expected to see a slight dip in profits compared to the previous quarter, according to a report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword>. The report estimates that PSBs' Profit After Tax (PAT) will decline by 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), while showing a stronger year-on-year (YoY) growth of 17.2 per cent. "We estimate PSBs to report moderate <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword> of 17.2 pc YoY/ a decline of 0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report stated. The slower pace of growth can be attributed to flat net interest margins (NIMs) and a slight increase in loan loss provisions (LLP). The <keyword id="20171160" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Net-Interest-Income" source="keywords">Net Interest Income</keyword> (NII) for PSBs is expected to grow by around 6 per cent YoY, although interest margins are likely to remain under pressure. Despite these near-term challenges, the report suggests that public sector banks are on track to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 per cent between FY24 and FY26, pointing to sustained long-term growth. In the private sector banking space, the report forecasts mixed results for the same quarter. For private banks under the coverage, Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is expected to grow by 12 per cent YoY and 1 per cent QoQ. However, PAT growth is predicted to be more modest, increasing by 5 per cent YoY and 0.6 per cent QoQ. "For our private bank coverage universe, we estimate a PPoP growth of 12 pc YoY/1 pc QoQ and a PAT growth of 5 pc YoY/0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report added. Looking ahead, private sector banks are expected to experience steady profitability growth, with earnings projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4 per cent over FY24-FY26. Overall, while both public and private sector banks may face moderate growth in the second quarter due to margin pressures and higher provisions, their long-term earnings prospects remain positive. (ANI)

Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

India's largest airline with a market share of 62.5% and Asia's biggest carrier by market valuation, <keyword id="19899182" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="IndiGo" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IndiGo" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IndiGo">Indigo</keyword>, posted a net loss of Rs 986.7 crore for the last quarter ended September 30, 2024. Indigo's profits during this quarter in 2023 were Rs 188.9 crore. The main reason behind the carrier running into reds during the second quarter of FY25 was high <keyword id="21353061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fuel-costs" source="keywords">fuel costs</keyword>. Per the airline, its fuel costs jumped by 12.8% to Rs 6,605.2 crore, compared to Rs 5,856 crore in the year-ago period. Another expense area that witnessed an exponential surge was aircraft and engine rentals, which rose to Rs 763.6 crore in the second quarter. This stood at Rs 195.6 crore in the year-ago period. All in all, the company's total expenses burgeoned 22% to Rs 18,666.1 crore during the previous quarter. Indigo's <keyword id="20066400" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="revenue-from-operations" source="keywords">revenue from operations</keyword>, while down by 13.3% on a QoQ basis, from Rs 19,571 crore in June 2024 to Rs 16,970 crore as of September 2023, jumped 13.6% on a YoY basis. The company's revenue from operations during the September quarter in 2023 stood at Rs 14,944 crore. Indigo’s consolidated top line also jumped 14% YoY to Rs 16,970 crore, which included Rs 14,359 crore of <keyword id="23687772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ticketing-revenue" source="keywords">ticketing revenue</keyword> and Rs 1,875 crore earned from ancillary services. At the end of September 2024, Indigo had a fleet of 410 planes. For the last quarter, Indigo was plagued by mass groundings of its aircraft due to faulty engines manufactured by <keyword id="21405019" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pratt-and-Whitney" source="keywords">Pratt and Whitney</keyword> Group. This had forced the airline to ground around 75 planes, or about 1/5th of its fleet. However, in the earnings call today, the management noted that the worst was behind them. Indigo expects the number of non-operational planes to drop below 60 by the end of this year and further dip to 40 by March 2025. Already, the number of grounded aircraft had come down to the high 60s. IndiGo’s cost per available seat kilometer (<keyword id="23687771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CASK" source="keywords">CASK</keyword>)—a useful metric to assess an airline's operational efficiency—also inched up 12% YoY to stand at Rs 4.69. The company expects this figure to inch up to double digits by the next quarter. Indigo's stock was down by 3.23% during the day, closing the week at Rs 4,373.70.

IndiGo's bottom-line turns red for Q2, high fuel costs, and forced groundings main reason

<ul><li>FMCG giant HUL’s shares reported a decline of over 6% on Thursday.</li><li>This comes a day after the company reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit in Q2.</li><li>The stock tanked 6.59% to ₹2,483.95 on the NSE.</li></ul>Shares of FMCG major <keyword id="20002610" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindustan-Unilever" source="keywords">Hindustan Unilever</keyword> Ltd (HUL) on Thursday tumbled over 6% after the firm reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit for the second quarter ended in September. The stock tanked 6.59% to ₹2,483.95 on the NSE. The stock emerged as the biggest laggard among the Sensex and Nifty firms during the morning trade. Hindustan Unilever Ltd on Wednesday reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit at ₹2,595 crore for the second quarter ended in September 2024, impacted by moderation in demand from the urban market. The company had logged a net profit of ₹2,657 crore in the July-September quarter a year ago, HUL said in a regulatory filing. However, revenue from product sales was up 2.36% at ₹15,703 crore in the September quarter, from ₹15,340 crore in the year-ago period, HUL which owns power brands such as Surf, Rin, Lux, Pond's, Lifebuoy, Lakme, Brooke Bond, Lipton and Horlicks said. "In the September quarter, <keyword id="21419477" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FMCG-demand" source="keywords">FMCG demand</keyword> witnessed moderating growth in urban markets, while rural continued to recover gradually. In this context, we delivered a competitive and profitable performance," HUL CEO and Managing Director Rohit Jawa said. HUL reported an underlying sales growth of 2% and underlying volume growth of 3%. Total expenses were at ₹12,581 crore in the September quarter, up 3.03% year-on-year. HUL's total income, which includes other income, was up 2.14% to ₹16,145 crore in the September quarter of FY25. Addressing an earnings call, HUL CFO Ritesh Tiwari said, "Two thirds of our business we do in urban areas, and one-third we do in rural areas … we are seeing growth in the urban market moderating. We are seeing rural growth recovery is gradual … it impacts all the categories that we have." On the outlook, he said, "In the near term, we expect demand trends to be stable with no further acceleration in pace of growth." In this context, Tiwari said, "Our focus remains on driving competitive volume-led growth, while continuing investments behind our brands and strategy priorities … If commodity prices remain where they are, we expect a low single digit price growth in the near-term." With inputs from PTI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/afcons-infrastructure-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/114490954.cms">Afcons Infrastructure IPO – GMP, risk factors and all you need to know</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/upi-refund-scam-to-digital-arrest-scam-here-are-most-common-online-scams-in-india/articleshow/114428011.cms">UPI refund to digital arrest scam, here are some online scams you need to be aware of</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/waaree-energies-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/114508632.cms">Waaree Energies IPO allotment – How to check allotment, IPO GMP, listing date and more</a>

Hindustan Unilever shares tumble over 6% post Q2 results

<keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC Bank</keyword> on Saturday posted a marginal 5 per cent increase in its standalone profit at Rs 16,821 crore in the second quarter ended September 2024. The country's biggest private sector lender had earned a <keyword id="19942166" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-profit" source="keywords">net profit</keyword> of Rs 15,976 crore in the same quarter a year ago. Total income increased to Rs 85,500 crore during the quarter under review against Rs 78,406 crore in the same period last year, HDFC Bank said in a regulatory filing. The bank reported <keyword id="20202322" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-income" source="keywords">interest income</keyword> of Rs 74,017 crore during the quarter compared to Rs 67,698 crore in the same period a year ago. Net Interest Income (NII) improved to Rs 30,110 crore, from Rs 27,390 crore in the second quarter of previous year, registering a 10 per cent growth. As regards asset quality, the bank witnessed slight deterioration with gross <keyword id="19927319" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Non-Performing-Assets" source="keywords">Non-Performing Assets</keyword> (NPAs) rising to 1.36 per cent of the gross loans by the end of September 2024 from 1.34 per cent a year ago. Similarly, net NPAs or bad loans rose to 0.41 per cent from 0.35 per cent at the end of the second quarter of the previous fiscal. On a consolidated basis, the bank logged a growth of 6 per cent in net profit to Rs 17,826 crore as against Rs Rs 16,811 crore in Q2FY24. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/best-credit-cards-for-online-shopping-in-india/articleshow/114354358.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/best-credit-cards-for-online-shopping-in-india/articleshow/114354358.cms" target="_blank">Best credit cards for online shopping this festive season</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/best-smartphones-under-25000-in-india-in-october-2024/slidelist/114339207.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/best-smartphones-under-25000-in-india-in-october-2024/slidelist/114339207.cms" target="_blank">Best smartphones under ₹25,000 in India in October 2024</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/waaree-energies-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/114350114.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/waaree-energies-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/114350114.cms" target="_blank">Waaree Energies IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a>

HDFC Bank Q2 profit soars 5% to ₹16,821 crore

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings likely grew for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3.</li><li>Top strategists are eyeing 2025 results ahead of what's likely a mid-single-digit advance.</li></ul>Corporate earnings are on pace for their best non-pandemic year since 2018, and market strategists expect the party to continue in the upcoming earnings season and into 2025.Interest rates and inflation have been investors' primary concerns this year, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9">worries about the labor market</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-jobs-report-sentiment-consumers-elections-recession-inflation-mortgage-rates-2024-9">growth</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">rising geopolitical tensions</a> have also sucked up plenty of oxygen — even though economists generally agree that a recession isn't imminent.Through all that noise, S&amp;P 500 profits have steadily risen and are set to end the year up 9.5%, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset</a>. That's the biggest jump for earnings in six years, other than 2021's robust recovery. Analysts believe 2025 will be even better, with growth of nearly 15% in the cards.<div type="image" title="2024 earnings as of Q2" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984264" hostid="261" sizebytes="55446"></div>Business Insider spoke with six investment chiefs, strategists, and money managers about the earnings and economic trends to watch in the Q3 earnings season and 2025 — plus how investors can position their portfolios for success.<h2 id="cb45912e-0004-415b-94ba-d8fc7736b77e">Q3 earnings will give clues about consumers</h2>Barring a major surprise, investors will learn starting in mid-October that earnings rose for the fifth straight quarter. Profits grew 4.6% in Q3, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset's latest projections</a>, though that would be down substantially from the 7.8% mark that analysts called for at the end of June.However, analysts have a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/why-do-analysts-low-ball-earnings-forecasts">habit of underselling earnings</a>. Nearly 79% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat Q2 estimates — partially due to a low bar, though results were quite strong at 11.2% growth.<div type="image" title="Factset beat rate Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984261" hostid="261" sizebytes="37156"></div>"What we've seen over the past few quarters, I really wouldn't describe as 'blowout growth' that sets up for disappointment going forward," said Mike Reynolds, Glenmede's vice president of investment strategy. Mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth is "pretty sustainable," he added.<div type="image" title="Factset Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984259" hostid="261" sizebytes="29018"></div>Profit margins will be in the crosshairs since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">inflation is slowing</a>, said Anthony Saglimbene, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. He's also keeping a close eye on signs about the strength of consumer spending, or lack thereof, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-wage-growth-investing-strategy-stocks-to-buy-goldman-sachs-2024-9">as wage growth dissipates</a>."There's been a lot of pricing power — not only in technology, but across a lot of the services and goods sides of the equation," Saglimbene said. "Can you hold profit margins in an environment where maybe your costs are becoming more stable, but demand is starting to slow?"Demand is either softening or steadfast, depending on your perspective. Joe Quinlan — who's head of markets strategy at Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America — recently remarked that there's a strikingly wide gap between high-income households and those who aren't well off.The strategy chief recently wrote that a mere 4.4% of US households make up 15% of personal consumption, which is the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">backbone of GDP</a>. The rich are disproportionately driving economic growth because of the wealth effect, which means they're confident since stocks are rising. Meanwhile, Quinlan noted that <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">roughly 40% of US households don't own stocks</a>."They're the ones — the lower-income households — definitely feeling the squeeze of higher prices. I know inflation has come down when we look at the metrics, but prices for food, rent, insurance — they're still elevated," Quinlan said, adding that this is limiting disposable income.Although weakness among lower-income households is troubling, strategists don't think it will show up in corporate earnings since consumers broadly are holding up."The consumer is pretty healthy," Reynolds said. "There's maybe some warning signs on the margin on credit-card balances and delinquencies, but it's really not enough to break the camel's back on earnings."<h2 id="e9ed5200-3a27-426c-b63a-a65a628a84e6">Why earnings will thrive in 2025</h2>Although investors have only seen about half of 2024 earnings, which are on track to rise 10%, it's already time to look to 2025."As the year continues, I do think it's not about earnings for this year — it's the trajectory of earnings for next year," said Andrew Slimmon, a lead portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.<div type="image" title="Factset 2024 earnings" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984262" hostid="261" sizebytes="29164"></div>Corporate profits should stay strong and can potentially improve, strategists say, provided that the US economy doesn't slow too much."If the macroeconomic picture holds together, there's an expectation that we should see a bit of a re-acceleration in earnings growth," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.Quinlan agrees and predicted that "earnings will reflect the dynamic and resiliency of the US economy that we just closed the quarter on."Michael Smith, the head of the growth equity team at Allspring Global Investments, said his research also indicates that companies are healthy, at least compared to a few years ago."We talk to our companies quite frequently and do our own work talking to their customers and suppliers, and we really feel like there are still some pockets of strong demand through our economy," Smith said.And even if economic growth comes in light, corporate earnings won't necessarily suffer."There's not always a one-for-one relationship between economic growth and earnings growth," Reynolds said. "You can still see earnings growth at a pretty robust level, even if economic growth moderates to some extent. So again, there's correlation there, but definitely not direct causation."Bears have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">long warned that this market is overvalued</a>, but unless earnings suddenly plummet, Slimmon suggested that those fears are overstated."As long as Q3 of this year is OK, I think that's where we're going to start next year with close to $280 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P," Slimmon said. "And that is supportive of a stock market that trades kind of closer to 6,000."Analysts' estimates may be ambitious, Saglimbene said. He suspects that Q4 expectations will recede alongside projections for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, though that often happens before quarters."That could be a little bit of a headwind for the market," Saglimbene said. "But again, if we're growing and profits are growing year-over-year, I think the market will look past some of that."Saglimbene later added: "We might not grow by 15% next year in an environment where the economy's growing 2%, but we might grow 7% or 8%. That's a normal earnings growth kind of environment, and I think that's enough to continue to push the market higher."<h2 id="06369d93-53a3-422f-8a02-436b2da92292">3 top places to invest heading into Q3 earnings</h2>When asked which parts of the market look most attractive, strategists consistently identified three sectors: communication services, healthcare, and technology.Large-cap growth stocks have carried the market higher for years thanks to their supercharged earnings. But that has changed in recent months, Saglimbene noted.The strategy chief expects to see broader profit growth, especially in economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, and real estate. They may also have more upside since they're cheaper."The areas that have not seen the best profit growth, like cyclicals outside of technology, their profit growth trends could actually improve more than expected because the economy is not headed for recession, because growth is remaining positive, because consumers are still spending," Saglimbene said.Smith agrees that industrials and consumer-focused sectors are worth a look, as are tech and healthcare companies. His investing strategy is centered around finding growth stocks on the so-called "right side of change" that also happen to be discounted. He said he's found more opportunities in small- and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-2025-mid-caps-investing-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-9">mid-sized stocks</a> lately."Money has to find a home somewhere, and it tends to flow to where it gets treated the best," Smith said. "Right now, the relative opportunity is down-cap."

Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

<keyword id="19947542" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="One-97-Communications" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="One 97 Communications" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="One 97 Communications">One 97 Communications</keyword>, that operates popular fintech brand <keyword id="19898109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Paytm" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm">Paytm</keyword>, reported a 25 per cent rise in revenue at Rs 9,978 crore in the just concluded financial year 2023-24. The company attributed the growth to GMV growth, device additions, and growth in the financial services distribution business. Since its IPO, when the company went public, it for the first full year EBITDA before ESOP profitability of Rs 559 crore, its earnings results released Wednesday showed. In the January-March quarter, however, Paytm reported a revenue of Rs 2,267 crore, a modest decline of 3 per cent year-on-year. "In Q4 FY 2024, we had lower marketing spends, as we paused most of the user growth spending in the month of February and March. We expect to reinvest in these areas in the coming financial year," Paytm informed stock exchanges. "While we experienced a financial impact in Q4 due to the above disruptions, the full financial impact will be seen in Q1 FY 2025." Paytm says it is confident of seeing meaningful improvement starting from Q2 2024-25, based on restarting certain paused products and achieving steady growth in operating metrics. In Q1 of the current fiscal, its focus will be on acquiring new merchants, reactivation of inactive merchants, and redeployment of devices from inactive merchants to new merchants. "While there will be a smaller net addition of device merchants in Q1 FY 2025, we expect net additions to improve from thereon and recover to past trendlines by Q3 FY 2025." Its revenue from payment services were up 26 per cent to Rs 6,235 crore; net payment margin was up 50 per cent to Rs 2,955 crore; gross merchandise value (GMV) up 39 per cent to Rs 18.3 lakh crore. Merchant paying subscriptions for devices have reached 1.07 crore as of March 2024, an increase of 39 lakh. Revenue from financial services and others up 30 per cent to Rs 2,004 crore; value of loans distributed was up 48 per cent to Rs 52,390 crore. Further, Paytm said that the active rate and per device subscription revenue has been impacted. Merchant subscription revenue in Q4 was Rs 90 per device per month and it expects it to bottom out at Rs 80 in Q1, post which it should increase towards Rs 100 by Q4 of the current fiscal. "We continue to address our merchants' needs through innovative product launches and are backed by a large distribution and service network. We recently launched two more "Made in India" soundboxes which are customized to the needs of our merchants, with louder speakers and longer battery life." SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/awfis-space-solutions-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/110305597.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/awfis-space-solutions-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/110305597.cms" target="_blank">Awfis Space Solutions IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/rajasthan-royals-vs-royal-challengers-bengaluru-head-to-head-record-key-players-and-more/slidelist/110298325.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/rajasthan-royals-vs-royal-challengers-bengaluru-head-to-head-record-key-players-and-more/slidelist/110298325.cms" target="_blank">Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru: head-to-head record, key players and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-pc-market-grows-by-2-6-in-q1-2024-recording-third-consecutive-quarter-with-growth/articleshow/110292150.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-pc-market-grows-by-2-6-in-q1-2024-recording-third-consecutive-quarter-with-growth/articleshow/110292150.cms" target="_blank">India's PC market grows by 2.6% in Q1 2024, recording third consecutive quarter with growth</a>

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Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

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