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<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div> 
For the past five years or so, the world has found itself awash in solar panels. Thanks to an initial spurt of European incentives for renewable energy and subsequent production boom out out of China, prices for solar module units went into a multi-year decline. 
But the global solar boom has finally brought down supplies, and 2014 looks to be the tightest supply year in nearly half a decade, <a href="http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/global-pv-pricing-outlook-q3-2014">according to GTM Research</a>. 
"The global PV supply chain has rebounded strongly from the overcapacity-induced lows of 2011 to 2013, with robust demand growth from markets such as China, Japan and the U.S. coming into contact with a fitter, leaner supply chain," GTM's Jade Jones and Shyam Mehta write. "With 2014 expected to be the PV market's tightest supply year in nearly half a decade, supply constraints and rising input costs are expected to result in meaningful increases in pricing across the PV value chain."
Prices for solar modules - the industry term for panels - actually started going up around this time last year. That was their first price increase in three years. Global module prices are actually back down this year, with the exception of those in the U.S.
However, prices for Polysilicon and wafers, which are used to make the solar cells in the panels, went up in the first half of 2014.
"In general, I would say that this is the healthiest shape that the solar supply chain has been in since 2010," Mehta said in an email to Business Insider.

2014 Is Expected To Be The Solar Market's Tightest Supply Year In Nearly Half A Decade

New Delhi, Apr 7 () India could face over 21.6 per cent of 3 gigawatts (GW) of solar power and wind energy projects being delayed due to the nationwide lockdown imposed to check the spread of coronavirus, Wood Mackenzie said in a report.While wind projects would be hit by supply and labour disruptions in the peak season, solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are expected to be hit hard as the industry is heavily dependent on Chinese PV module imports, which have been disrupted due to coronavirus."Wood Mackenzie projects that India could face over 21.6 per cent or 3 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind installations being delayed as a result of the country's lockdown," it said in the report.Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Robert Liew said: "The timing of the lockdown is unfortunate as Q1 is typically one of the busiest periods for wind project installations. The lockdown will delay some projects until summer, and if the lockdown is extended past April, wind farm construction could be further delayed into the monsoon season, where wind installations are typically at their lowest".With over 3 GW of wind projects under construction scheduled for 2020 completion, supply and labour disruptions from the current lockdown could delay 400 megawatts (MW) into 2021, equating to a downgrade of 11 per cent for 2020.Similar to the wind sector, India's solar PV installations is expected to be hit hard as the industry is heavily dependent on Chinese PV module imports (80 per cent of total volume) which has been disrupted due to the coronavirus."Current supply and labour disruptions will have an outsized negative impact on 2020 installations. Q1 is expected to be strongly impacted with a potential 60 per cent year-on-year quarterly downgrade, or 1.2 GW, down from about 3 GW in Q1 2019."We remain cautious on the outlook for the second half of the year as supply and logistics bottlenecks linger. Consequently, our full-year downgrade stands at 2.9 GW, a 24.8 per cent reduction resulting in a revised 2020 outlook of 8.9 GW of solar PV installations," Senior analyst Rishab Shrestha said.States with the highest coronavirus infection rates also correspond with the areas that are favourable to the wind and solar development.Gujarat delivered 58 per cent or 1.4 GW of newly added wind capacity in India in 2019 and is one of the top ten worst-hit states in terms of coronavirus infections.On the solar front, Karnataka (2.0 GW), Tamil Nadu (1.6 GW) and Rajasthan (1.7 GW) were the top three states accounting for 55 per cent of solar PV installations in 2019. All of which are in the top ten worst-hit states.Both analysts agree that current support measures by the government to mitigate the downturn are warranted, but if the virus situation continues to escalate and the lockdown is extended, there will be a severe financial impact on utility companies.Consequently, solar PV and wind installation developers' cash flows will also be affected, and corporate bank loans for new project development could slow to a trickle, the report added. ANZ BALBAL

India's renewables installation could fall by a fifth due to lockdown: Wood Mackenzie

The sun could be the world's largest source of electricity by 2050, according to <a href="http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2014/september/name-125873-en.html" target="_blank">a report issued on Monday</a> by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
According to IEA, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could generate up to 16% of the world's electricity - overtaking fossil fuels, wind, hydro, and nuclear energy - in a little more than three decades. 
In photovoltaic cells, silicon electrons absorb energy from light rays, which is converted into electricity. These are different from thermal solar panels, which generate energy by heating up water. 
In the future, every country is expected to increase its share of solar power, with China, currently <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/6-reasons-why-china-will-never-let-go-of-coal-2014-5" target="_blank">the world biggest consumer of coal</a>, playing the biggest role, the report said. 
The European Union, led by Germany and Italy, currently leads the way in PV electricity generation, while China is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-leads-the-world-in-green-energy-gaming-and-gambling-markets-2014-6" target="_blank">the single largest producer of PV energy</a>. However, the report predicts that China and other Asian countries will eventually overtake the EU. 
A roadmap created by IEA details the "expected technology improvement targets and the policy actions required to achieve that vision by 2050." 
You can see that China PV alone (in red) should generate around 6% of the global electricity production, with the US (in blue) set to generate around 2%.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container click-to-enlarge"><div class="image"><a title_source="IEA" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/542ab2106bb3f79344dc3c5a-960/screen%20shot%202014-09-30%20at%202.35.30%20pm.png"></a>IEA</div></div>
"The rapid cost decrease of photovoltaic modules and systems in the last few years has opened new perspectives for using solar energy as a major source of electricity in the coming years and decades," IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in a statement.
He also pointed out potential roadblocks: "Both technologies are very capital intensive: almost all expenditures are made upfront. Lowering the cost of capital is thus of primary importance for achieving the vision in these roadmaps."

One Chart Shows How Solar Could Dominate Electricity In 30 Years

<div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"><a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sunrise_in_Constanta,Romania.JPG">Wikimedia Commons</a></div></div>
The age of renewables is upon us, Citi says.
In a new note subtitled "The Age of Renewables is Beginning - A Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Perspective, the bank's alternative energy team, led by Shar Pourreza, writes that we can expect across-the-board price decreases in solar and wind, which will continue to fuel the renewable energy generation boom.
Renewables energy, primarily solar and wind, costs continue to decline and are increasingly competitive with natural gas peakers (natgas plants that turn on during periods of high demand - ed.) and CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) plants on an LCOE (the lifecycle cost of an electricity generation system - ed.) basis.
Here are the projected cost decreases for solar:
<ul>
<li>Solar PV module cost declines thanks to Moore's law - "Our outlook is for module costs to decline approximately 11% per year over the next five years driven primarily by lower cost of production," Citi says.</li>
<li>Balance of System - components of a photovoltaic system other than the photovoltaic panels - price declines thanks to streamlining and standardizing the installation process. "We apply an annual discount of 6% to residential scale BoS costs, and an annual reduction of 8% to utility-scale BoS costs, which we think are very conservative given recent rapid cost reductions," Citi says</li>
<li>Polysilicon price declines, which should track reduction rates in other parts of the panels </li>
<li>Lower conversion factors and higher efficiencies (i.e. less grams/watt needed to produce panels)</li>
<li>Longer module lifespans </li>
</ul>
Citi adds the caveat that the rates of price declines vary between residential, commercial and utility-scale projects, but that the overall downward trend holds.
Price declines will also be seen in wind thanks to:
<ul>
<li> Larger and therefore more efficient turbines (turbines that are over 100MW are ~11% cheaper on a $/MW basis than turbines that are less than 100MW).</li>
<li>More investment, thanks to cheaper financing</li>
</ul>
Here's their wind outlook:
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">Citi</div></div></div>Meanwhile, natural gas prices are going to keep going up - Citi's "long-term" (the exact dates aren't specified) gas price forecast is $5.50/mmbtu. And the cost of running coal and nuclear plants is slowly becoming prohibitive.
In conclusion: 
In peak power generation, solar is increasingly attractive vs. gas peakers from an LCOE and fuel diversity perspective. In baseload generation, wind, biomass, geothermal, and hydro are becoming more attractive vs. CCGT plants but other considerations influence adoption of renewables.
Citi is in fact bullish on certain publicly traded utilities that have most nimbly adapted to the renewables boom, including Edison International and Pacific Gas and Electric in California; Duke Energy in the South, DTE Energy in Michigan, and Westar Energy in Kansas. They also like SunEdison, SunPower and First Solar. They have not initiated coverage on SolarCity.

CITI: 'The Age of Renewables is Beginning '

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image">REUTERS/Hugh Gentry</div></div></div>It's probably going to get more expensive for Americans to buy solar panels.
The Commerce Department has made a preliminary ruling that it will impose duties ranging from 18.56% to 35.21% on solar cells and modules from China. 
Shayle Kann, senior vice president for research at Greentech Media, said that while Commerce's final ruling won't come for another few months, this is a strong indication of where the department will ultimately come down.
"Even if you take these alone - average tariffs for most [Chinese and Taiwanese] manufacturers of 27% -that's significant," he told BI. "If you take average panel prices today, which is in the low $0.70s [per watt], and increase it by 27%, you're approaching $1 a watt, which is very significant compared to where we are today."
Utility-scale solar projects, which comprises the largest share of both new and overall PV installations in the U.S., are likely to be most affected, since they are the most price sensitive, Kann said. 
"27% will certainly kill a lot of projects at margin," Kann said. 
The tariffs were sought by the American unit of SolarWorld, a panel manufacturing firm based in Germany. The firm has accused the Chinese of offering illicit subsidies, and separately accused China and Taiwan of illegal dumping. Today's ruling concerns the subsidies. 
SolarWorld hailed the decision. "Today is a strong win for the U.S. solar industry," SolarWorld Industries America President Mukesh Dulani said <a href="http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2014/kw23/us-doc-sets-preliminary-anti-subsidy-tariffs-at-19-35-on-chinese-solar-pv-cells-modules.html">according to SolarServer.com</a>. "We look forward to the end of illegal Chinese government intervention in the U.S. solar market, and we applaud Commerce for its work that supports fair trade." 
Ironically, GTM Research reported this afternoon that the U.S. saw the second greatest volume of photovoltaic installations on record in Q1 2014 - <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/research/ussmi?utm_source=GTM%20Research&amp;utm_medium=Email&amp;utm_campaign=Q1%20SMI%20Blast">1.3 gigawatts worth</a>.
The last word on the issue won't be known until this fall, when the U.S. International Trade Commission makes a final ruling. But this looks grim for end-users.

It's Probably Going To Get More Expensive For Americans To Buy Solar Panels 

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Reuters/Reuters StaffGeneral view of a fan with Jamie Vardy masks on the seats before the match.</div></div></div>Here is what you need to know.<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/STOCKS-GO-NOWHERE-Heres-what-you-need-to-know-1001631120">Dow 20,000 is in the crosshairs</a>. The Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a fractional gain on Tuesday, finishing at 19,945.04. The index is set to open higher by 0.1% near 19,971.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-rises-against-the-dollar-on-december-28-2016-12?r=UK&amp;IR=T">Bitcoin is up again</a>. The cryptocurrency is up about 3% to $958, and trading at its best level since November 2013. Bitcoin has gained $135, or 16.4%, over the past week.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/toshiba-shares-fall-20-percent-december-28-multibillion-stone-and-webster-writedown-2016-12?r=UK&amp;IR=T">Toshiba crashes after warning of a multi-billion dollar writedown</a>. Shares of the chips-to-construction group tumbled 20% on Wednesday after the company warned it might need to take a larger than expected writedown on its acquisition of Chicago Bridge &amp; Iron. <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/business/delta-cancels-order-for-18-boeing-787s-inherited-from-northwest/">Delta cancels an order from Boeing</a>.Delta Air Lines has canceled an order for 18 Boeing widebody 787 Dreamliner jets, with a list price of $4 billion, that was inherited from its takeover of Northwest Airlines, the Seattle Times says. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-27/bp-to-buy-woolworths-australian-gas-stations-for-a-1-785-billion">BP is buying gas stations in Australia</a>. The London-based oil giant has agreed to pay $1.3 billion for Woolworths' 527 retail fuel outlets in Australia, according to Bloomberg.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-skorea-regulator-fines-qualcomm-854-mln-for-violating-competition-laws-2016-12?r=UK&amp;IR=T">Qualcomm got hit with an $854 million fine by South Korea</a>. The Korea Fair Trade Commission, South Korea's antitrust regulator, has ruled that Qualcomm hindered compeition as a result of its business practices of patent licensing and smartphone modem chip sales, Reuters reports.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/panasonic-investing-over-256-million-in-teslas-us-plant-for-solar-cells-2016-12?r=UK&amp;IR=T">Panasonic is investing in a Tesla production facility</a>. Panasonic will invest $256 million in a Tesla production facility that makes photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules, Reuters reports. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cfa-institute-report-on-ceo-pay-2016-12">CEO pay is rising, but "economic profit" isn't</a>. A report released by the CFA Institute showed CEO pay has climbed 82% in the last 13 years, but the average company generated less than a 1% return for investors.<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/indices">Stock markets around the world are up</a>. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.8%) paced the gains overnight and Britain's FTSE (+0.4%) leads in Europe.US economic data trickles out. Pending home sales will be released at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is unchanged at 2.56%.

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