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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has promised to do a variety of different things on "Day One" of his second term.</li><li>Much of his agenda will take time to implement, but there are things he could start immediately.</li></ul>Over the past two years of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">President-elect Donald Trump's</a> third presidential campaign, he frequently promised to enact certain promises on "day one" of his new administration."Many things will be done on day one," Trump said at a town hall with Tucker Carlson in Phoenix in late October. "Your head will spin when you see what's going to happen."Some aspects of Trump's agenda, particularly his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">promises</a> to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits, will require Congress to act.But much of his signature promises can be set into motion via executive orders, which he will be able to issue as soon as he enters office. He will also be able to issue pardons and fire government officials as early as day one.<h2 id="b28818a4-c79e-4982-8ef7-724240a430af">Executive orders: Immigration and likely legal challenges</h2>Some of Trump's most readily achievable promises are related to immigration, an area where the White House and Executive Branch have a significant say. In the closing days of the campaign, Trump underlined his commitment to getting to work right away on building "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">the largest deportation force</a>" in the nation's history. The American Civil Liberties Union and other organizations have said they would challenge Trump's actions in court, meaning that anything begun on Day One will only be the beginning of a potentially long legal fight.Trump also repeatedly promised to curtail <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2023/0120/Immigration-parole-What-is-it-and-who-s-getting-it#:~:text=Unlike%20asylum%20and%20refugee%20status,benefits%2C%20though%20there%20are%20exceptions">parole</a>, which allows immigrants to temporarily live in the US, often for humanitarian reasons. He also pushed debunked claims about secret "migrant flights," which he also promised to ban on day one.Trump has promised to issue several executive orders when he takes office, though some of them are likely to be challenged in court.For example, Trump has pledged to sign an executive order revoking birthright citizenship, which is enshrined in the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution.During the Republican primary, he pledged to take executive action "banning schools from promoting critical race theory or transgender insanity."It's likely that such an action could mirror an executive order President Joe Biden revoked after taking office, which at the time prohibited the federal government and federal contractors from conducting workplace trainings on "divisive concepts." A federal judge later blocked prohibitions on certain trainings.<h2 id="95350b5b-0e65-4724-a668-327eaf0fb4cb">Pardons and personnel decisions: Firing Jack Smith, pardoning January 6 rioters</h2>Some of Trump's promises are more simple and involve firing government officials he does not like.That includes Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is currently leading the Department of Justice's prosecution of Trump for his role in the January 6 insurrection and Trump's mishandling of classified documents. Smith is already <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-jan-6-justice-department-classified-documents-01c2d54177d7c949f62a15604a27b3e0">reportedly</a> looking into winding down those investigations in order to comply with a longstanding department policy that sitting presidents cannot be prosecuted."I would fire him within two seconds," Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in late October. "He'll be one of the first things addressed."At a Bitcoin conference in July, Trump also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7">pledged to fire</a> Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, on "day one" and appoint a replacement. Gensler has angered many in the cryptocurrency community, which Trump and his campaigned courted ahead of the 2024 election.Trump has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/donald-trump-says-absolutely-pardon-jan-6-rioters-rcna164565">pledged</a> to pardon January 6 rioters "if they're innocent," which he would be able to do as soon as his first day in office.<h2 id="c3a47c27-7a7a-4054-aee5-a4613822eeb6">"Day One" promises that Trump may not be able to fulfill</h2>Some "day one" commitments are simply not possible.At times during the campaign, Trump pledged to "end inflation" just hours after taking office. But no one, including the president, can single-handedly lower broad price levels set across the entire US economy.The Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, is tasked with monitoring inflation and adjusting interest rates up or down as needed, and the Fed takes its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">political independence seriously.</a> Far from ending inflation, economists are worried that Trump's expansive tariffs could lead <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">prices spiking even higher.</a>"Starting on day one of my new administration, we will end inflation and we will make America affordable again because the prices are too high," Trump said at a rally in Wisconsin in October.Prices reached record highs earlier in the Biden administration, but since then inflation has continued to cool.

What Trump might do on Day One of his presidency

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla's Cybertruck has been hit by another recall over fears some trucks could lose drive power.</li><li>This one could be a hassle for affected owners, with around 2,400 Cybertrucks needing a physical fix.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>'s <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-cybertruck-apocalypse-inequality-2023-12">"apocalypse-proof" Cybertruck</a> has been hit by yet another recall.Tesla is recalling the Cybertruck for the sixth time in 12 months due to a problem with some of its electric pickups that could suddenly cause them to lose drive power.According to a recall report released by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Wednesday, the recall affects around 2,400 Cybertrucks.The regulator said in the report that the issue was due to a fault in the drive inverter that could cause it to stop producing torque when using the accelerator pedal, "resulting in a loss of propulsion, which may increase the risk of a collision."Tesla will replace the drive inverter on the affected vehicles, meaning drivers will likely face the hassle of bringing their Cybertrucks into service centers for repairs. Tesla has been able to address some of the pickup's previous recalls with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-cybertruck-recalled-again-2024-10">over-the-air software updates</a>.The NHTSA said that Tesla knew of five warranty claims that could be related to the issue, and that the company was not aware of any collisions or injuries linked to the faulty drive inverter.The Cybertruck has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-outselling-almost-every-other-ev-in-us-2024-10">proven to be a big seller for Tesla</a> but has been dogged by quality issues, with the pickup being recalled six times since it launched last November. The "apocalypse-proof" electric truck has faced issues with its enormous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-recalls-cybertrucks-due-to-wiper-issue-2024-6">windscreen wiper</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-cybertruck-recalled-again-2024-10">rearview camera</a>, and accelerator pedal.The accelerator recall also required a physical fix, with Tesla replacing or reworking the pedal. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment, sent outside normal working hours.

Cybertruck owners face another recall — and this one's likely to be a hassle

Shares of fintech firm <keyword id="181441" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="One97-Communications" source="Orion">One97 Communications</keyword> -- the owner of <keyword id="19898109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Paytm" source="keywords">Paytm</keyword> brand -- jumped 5 per cent on Thursday morning after the company received the government's approval for downstream investment in wholly-owned subsidiary <keyword id="22960487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Paytm-Payments-Services-Ltd-" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm Payments Services Ltd." meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm Payments Services Ltd.">Paytm Payments Services Ltd.</keyword> The stock climbed 5 per cent to Rs 565 on the BSE. At the NSE, it surged 4.98 per cent to Rs 564.80. The company will reapply for a <keyword id="6640986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="payment-aggregator" source="Orion">payment aggregator</keyword> (PA) licence, a regulatory filing said on Wednesday. "We would like to inform you that <keyword id="20410230" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PPSL" source="keywords">PPSL</keyword> has received approval from the government of India, <keyword id="156153" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ministry-of-Finance" source="Orion">Ministry of Finance</keyword>, Department of Financial Services, vide its letter dated August 27, 2024, for downstream investment from the company into PPSL. "With this approval in place, PPSL will proceed to resubmit its PA application. In the meantime, PPSL will continue to provide online payment aggregation services to existing partners," Paytm filing said. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had rejected Paytm's PA licence permit application in November 2022 and instructed the company to reapply with Press Note 3 compliance under the foreign direct investment norms. As per Press Note 3, the government had made its prior approval mandatory for investments from nations that share land borders with India.

Paytm shares jump 5% on receiving government's nod for investment in Paytm Payments Services

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Climate change is increasing the severity of natural disasters — and home insurance prices.</li><li>For those moving to a climate-risk state, there are some steps you can take to protect your home.</li></ul>Finding an affordable home in a red-hot real estate market is already a tremendous feat.And now, in addition to rapidly rising prices, home buyers are increasingly worried about another factor: climate change.According to Zillow, more than 80% of home buyers considered climate risks — including flood, wildfire, and hurricane — when shopping for a house.In particular, climate change complicates the homebuying process by sending <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-homeowners-insurance-premium-costs-crisis-skyrocketing-states-hurricanes-2024-10">home insurance premiums skyrocketing</a>. As storms and other natural disasters become more destructive, home insurance providers are raising rates or pulling out of certain states altogether, according to insurance company Insurify.According to Holden Lewis, a home insurance expert at NerdWallet, climate change is hitting states such as California, Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska the hardest — and wildly disrupting these states' home insurance markets.If you're looking to purchase a house in these high-risk markets, here's what you need to know about rapidly rising home insurance rates.<h2 id="4ca151ec-b6df-44db-821b-3b925503bc08">How to navigate the insurance landscape when moving</h2>As climate change exacerbates the frequency and severity of natural disasters, homes are at higher risk of damage. Insurance companies in turn are raising prices to cover the higher costs of covering claims and reinsurance, or insurance for insurance companies.According to financial data firm Bankrate, the national average cost of home insurance is $2,285 a year for up to $300,000 of dwelling coverage. But in high climate-risk states such as Nebraska, Florida, and Oklahoma, average annual premiums range from $4,835 to $5,655.It might seem obvious, one step homebuyers can take to avoid surprises is consider home insurance costs early in the homebuying process, Lewis said. As insurance premiums increase, they can materially impact your monthly housing payments and push a home out of your affordability zone.Prospective buyers shopping for homes in a new state are especially prone to insurance sticker shock, according to Lewis. For example, if you're thinking of moving from Ohio to Texas, you might not be aware that the average homeowners insurance rate in cyclone-prone Texas is $3,916 a year — $2,600 more than in Ohio, Lewis pointed out.Still, climate-risk states remain popular. According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/U-Haul-Announces-Top-Growth-States-Of-2023-30660/">U-Haul</a>, Texas and Florida received the highest influx of new residents in 2023.Many of these newcomers might not have done their homework on the home insurance market before moving to the state, according to Stephanie L., homeowner and lifelong Florida resident who asked not to use her full last name for privacy reasons.There's a lack of consumer awareness of the financial risk extreme weather brings, in Stephanie's opinion. "If you purchase a beautiful home on a river, you have to understand that with the way storms come in, you could be at risk," Stephanie told Business Insider in an interview.Even within climate-risk states, you can minimize your home's exposure to extreme weather and bring down insurance premiums by researching the local neighborhood.When Stephanie bought her house, she picked a location in the Jacksonville metropolitan area, which has less exposure to hurricane risk than other areas of the Sunshine state."We definitely looked for high and dry, not in a flood zone, and not in a hurricane evacuation zone," Stephanie said.Indeed, Jacksonville home insurance premiums are significantly lower than Florida's state average of $5,527, with homeowners paying an average of $2,705 a year for insurance according to Bankrate.Next, when it comes by a natural disaster, you want to ensure that the insurance policy can fully cover rebuilding costs. Many policies offer dwelling coverage limits in line with the market value of the house, but that's not always sufficient coverage, according to Lewis."The market value of the house the day before a fire or storm might be less than the actual cost to rebuild it to current building codes," Lewis said.For prospective homebuyers, Lewis recommends clarifying the dwelling coverage limit with the insurance agent and shopping around for available policies.Also important to note is that flood coverage often isn't included in standard homeowners insurance policies. This is an important consideration if you're looking to buy a house in an area prone to hurricanes."If water is rising, say from a river, or storm surge, then a standard homeowners policy will not cover that damage," Lewis said.Stephanie purchased flood insurance in addition to her regular homeowners insurance when she purchased a home."I also have a separate flood policy even though I'm not in a floodplain," she said. "When you're not in a flood zone, flood insurance is pretty affordable."Although Stephanie isn't at high risk for flooding, she still wants to be prepared for the worst. It's not a bad idea to go the extra mile and purchase extra insurance when it comes to buying a home in Florida, even if you're not directly in a flood zone.In addition to hurricane-prone Gulf Coast states, regions like western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southern Virginia are flooding hotspots, according to Lewis.Lastly, homeowners also should consider how inflation will drive up home insurance costs, especially as concerns over inflation loom high in today's economy. An inflationary environment will increase the cost of building materials and construction, Lewis pointed out.As a result, it may be a good idea to review your coverage every year or two to evaluate the status of your coverage, Lewis said."Talk to the agent, maybe even talk to a general contractor just to find out, 'Hey, am I still covered? Do I still have enough coverage to pay to rebuild this home?'" Lewis suggested.For those considering buying a home in a state with high levels of climate risk, taking these precautions during the homebuying process can help you protect your investment.

Buying a home in one of these 9 climate-risk states? Here's how to deal with spiking home insurance rates from someone who lives in one

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hewlett Packard Enterprise CEO Antonio Neri prioritizes diversity, equity, and inclusion.</li><li>Neri's DEI focus contrasts with companies like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-layoffs-dei-leader-email-2024-7">Microsoft</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-deere-ditches-dei-policies-conservative-activists-lgbtq-pride-pronoun-2024-7">John Deere</a> reducing such efforts.</li></ul>Hewlett Packard Enterprise CEO Antonio Neri started his career at the company as a "Customer Service Engineer" in a call center nearly 30 years ago. Today, that experience informs his commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion."Intentionality is important," Neri said in a recent interview with Business Insider.HPE has a workforce of more than 62,000 — double the size of Nvidia's, but it has nowhere near the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-earnings-party-investors-cult-investing-memes-2024-9">name recognition</a>, especially since it split off from HP in 2015. HP makes computer printers for homes and offices. HPE provides data center and cloud service services and technology to businesses.Focusing on company culture was number two on Neri's list of top three priorities across the company this year, he told BI, and diversity plays a big part. (Innovation was number one).That sets him apart in the fast-shifting climate for corporate DEI. The list of companies ranking DEI that high may be shrinking. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-layoffs-dei-leader-email-2024-7">Microsoft</a> laid off one of its diversity, equity, and inclusion teams earlier this year, citing "changing business needs."In August, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-cutting-dei-activist-backlash-harley-davidson-deere-tractor-supply-2024-8">Harley Davidson</a> announced an end to its effort to buy from diverse suppliers, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-deere-ditches-dei-policies-conservative-activists-lgbtq-pride-pronoun-2024-7">John Deere</a> said in July it would not "participate in or support external social or cultural awareness parades, festivals, or events."A survey by the executive search firm Bridge Partners of 400 C-suite and HR leaders at companies with either at least $25 million in revenue or 250 employees found that the number of employers who said they had increased their DEI investments in the past year dropped to 66% in 2024 from 77% in 2023. Roughly one in four executives expressed a belief that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-data-driven-strategies-tools-refine-dei-belonging-efforts-decisions-2024-10">DEI programs were a fad</a>."My first job at HP was in a call center where we had 21 different languages and probably 40 different nationalities and every gender — every presence you can imagine," Neri said. "That was a fun place to work and we were a very high-performance team. So, to me, this is a natural way to do things," he continued.When he took over the CEO job in 2018, all 12 of Neri's direct reports were male. It took seven years, but that group is now 50% female and so is HPE's board. Across the company, women hold nearly 28% of director-level or above positions, according to the company's 2023 ESG report.Neri said he addresses DEI initiatives at the company in internal quarterly leadership discussions and company surveys multiple times a year. He's received no pushback on the company's efforts in this area, he said. On top of diversifying hiring, Neri likes to see employees moving up the ranks relatively fast."We need to look for the diamond in the rough in order to challenge people to continue to grow," he said. The younger generations, he said are often more "restless" for challenge.HPE measures and rewards managers based on the diversity of their hiring, retention, and promotion of employees — especially at higher levels.Letting employees coast in their comfort zones isn't on the agenda. In fact, he credits his rise to CEO in part to people who recognized his talent early on and pushed him into promotions he wasn't necessarily looking for.<h2 id="377dd04a-d95a-4a57-bac1-8797746cfffd">The CEO role has changed</h2>The 57-year-old CEO wants a diverse workforce that stays with the company and moves up the ranks. And those goals are baked into managers' performance metrics."Ultimately it's a part of succession planning. Who's going to be the next CEO down the road? It could be somebody from inside," Neri said.Neri took over the top spot at HPE from Meg Whitman, formerly CEO of eBay and current US ambassador to Kenya, seven years ago, and he said his experience of the job is very different from hers."The role of CEO has changed dramatically from what we knew a decade ago," Neri said. CEOs are asked to take positions now on issues that matter to employees.He wants to hear strong opinions internally too, he said, and he's not afraid to follow them and fail fast when it comes to innovation. "I need people to have an opinion. If you're sitting on the sideline, that means you're you're not contributing your best," he said.

Why one cloud CEO is redoubling DEI initiatives as some companies waver

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-won-election-what-that-means-for-elon-musk-2024-11">Elon Musk and Donald Trump are both enthusiastic </a>about space exploration opportunities amid a desire to slash regulations.</li><li>It's not yet clear how powerful Musk's role in the new Trump administration will be.</li></ul>Now that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">president-elect Donald Trump</a> is set to return to power in the US, Elon Musk's plans for sending humans beyond Earth's orbit may be more likely to come to fruition.Space industry experts told Business Insider that Musk's influence over Trump could help advance <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-could-help-deregulate-tech-amid-a-trump-victory-2024-11">his business interests</a>, including sending the first crewed mission to Mars."I'm hugely optimistic about what's going to happen in space now," Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the Center for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi School of Law, told Business Insider.Hanlon's optimism isn't unfounded, especially if Trump's second term focuses on space as much as his first.During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, Trump's administration founded <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/space-force-guardian-nick-hague-spacex-rocket-iss-2024-2">the Space Force</a>, re-launched the National Space Council, and established NASA's Artemis program. This program is set to return astronauts to the moon and lay the groundwork for the first crewed mission to Mars.But space isn't the only interest Trump and Musk share. They also want to slash government regulations.<h2 id="b873fb1d-647e-4cdf-a3ef-7d9a7adb04e7">Musk's 'Department of Government Efficiency'</h2>Trump has said that he would cut 10 regulations for every new one his administration creates.Musk and his businesses, meanwhile, have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-faa-overtime-regulations-2024-9">clashed with regulators</a>, including the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Federal Aviation Administration."There is a lot of waste and needless regulation in government that needs to go," Musk wrote on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1830829538118381574">X</a> after Trump announced that he planned to put the billionaire at the helm of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-rally-elon-musk-save-department-government-efficiency-2024-10">new "department of government efficiency."</a>It's unclear how much influence Musk would have over regulations if this department came to fruition. Trump's trust in Musk to run such a department, however, is a testament to the pair's burgeoning relationship.The two men teamed up on the campaign trail, with Musk contributing millions to Trump's reelection campaign and appearing with him at a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">rally in Pennsylvania</a>.In his election-night victory speech, Trump praised Musk for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-spacex-starship-launch-five-huge-deal-space-travel-2024-10">SpaceX's Starship</a> vehicle, designed to shuttle the first humans to Mars, and for the company's Starlink internet satellites, which are designed to offer fast, cheap internet to remote locations worldwide.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-calls-zelenskyy-erdogan-influence-2024-11">Musk also joined a call</a> between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday — underscoring how influential Musk could be once Trump returns to office, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call?stream=top&amp;utm_source=alert&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=alerts_all">Axios</a> reported.Whether that influence translates to Trump founding a new "department of government efficiency" for Musk, though, is unclear.<div type="image" title="Elon Musk jumps for joy at Trump's recent rally in Butler, Pennsylvania." height="1279" width="2000" msid="115101302" hostid="261" sizebytes="117830"></div>SpaceX and Musk did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Trump's campaign said that Musk's ideas and efficiency will benefit federal bureaucracy but his role in Trump's administration remains under wraps."It's a crazy situation, but you can't just create a new department," Deborah Sivas, the director of the Environmental Law Clinic at Stanford, told BI. She said Congress would have to approve it, which may be more likely since Republicans won the Senate majority.Changing a government agency's powers or rules, Sivas said, requires making new rules or passing a law through Congress. That can take months, and it's not guaranteed to work.So, it's unlikely that Musk would be able to single-handedly eliminate key steps in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-texas-starship-launch-site-development-challenges-2019-6">regulatory processes</a>, like the typical environmental review requirement for building a new rocket launchpad."I think Elon Musk will be more likely in the background, whispering in his ear," Sivas said of the billionaire's relationship with Trump."Is he going to be able to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-autocratic-style-success-politics-harm-2024-9">influence space policy</a>? Yes, no question," Hanlon said, adding that she sees that as a "good thing" because of Musk's experience.In other arenas, like environmental regulation, Sivas isn't so sure."I feel like he should stay in his business lane and stay out of the government lane," Sivas said. "When you put those two together, it's like putting church and state together."<h2 id="879d5f64-5325-4a92-9196-db627a3cb3e9">Smoothing potholes on the road to Mars</h2>Even if Musk can't change regulations, a space-friendly Trump administration could smooth the path to Musk's goal of building a city on Mars.Musk recently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833">said</a> that he plans to launch Starships to Mars for the first time in just two years. If those flights go well, he said that the first human crews would follow four years from now."That's a pretty ambitious timeline," George Nield, former associate administrator of the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation, told BI. To meet it would probably require "different regulatory frameworks or contractual arrangements than we've used in the past," he added.<div type="image" title="Elon Musk with former president Donald Trump" height="2633" width="3949" msid="115101300" hostid="261" sizebytes="148502"></div>"If anybody can do it, it will be Elon Musk," Hanlon said. But the government can help, she said, by making regulators more efficient.To help even further, she added, "It can become a policy of the US government to support commercial flight to Mars."With Trump's interest in Starship, the chances of that look better than ever.Regulations aren't the only obstacle. There are still a lot of technical hurdles to overcome before we can reach Mars, Nield said.The moon, on the other hand, is more achievable, and Trump has had his eye on it. Weeks after Musk endorsed Trump, the president-elect <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-victory-expected-boost-musks-mars-dream-2024-11-08/">told reporters</a> that the moon was the first step toward his ultimate goal to reach Mars.<h2 id="60abc973-d957-4dd0-8d46-da0596ffb8e2">The next moon landing</h2>For the Artemis program's first human moon landing, NASA plans to launch four astronauts toward the moon using its Space Launch System and Orion spaceship.In lunar orbit, the ship would meet up with SpaceX's Starship, which would carry two astronauts to the moon's surface, putting boots in the lunar dust for the first time since 1972.The date for that mission has been repeatedly pushed back, with September 2026 being NASA's current target.There's no indication that Trump is considering this, but if he wants a faster moon landing, he could ditch the NASA hardware and send astronauts aboard Starship alone, Nield said."If we see rapid progress with Starship and encouragement from the administration and Congress, I don't see any reason why that couldn't happen in a small number of years," Nield said.

What Trump's second term means for space and why one expert is 'hugely optimistic'

Paris [France], August 5 (ANI): Indian Men's <keyword id="20016187" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hockey" source="keywords">Hockey</keyword> Team defender <keyword id="21262191" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Amit-Rohidas" source="keywords">Amit Rohidas</keyword> is set to miss the semifinal clash against Germany on Tuesday after receiving a <keyword id="22668702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="one-match-ban" source="keywords">one-match ban</keyword> for his foul in the quarterfinal clash against Great Britain. In the second quarter of the match, Rohidas was given a red card after he raised his stick and caught opponent William Calnan's head. <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="India">India</keyword> played the rest of the match one-man down. The International Hockey Federation (FIH) released an official statement where they announced that the player is set to miss one match because of his misconduct. "Amit Rohidas was suspended for one match for a breach of the FIH Code of Conduct which occurred during the India vs Great Britain match on August 4," the FIH official statement read as quoted by Olympics.com. "The suspension affects match No. 35 (India's <keyword id="20509843" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="semi-final" source="keywords">semi-final</keyword> match against Germany), where Amit Rohidas will not participate and India will play with a squad of 15 players only," the statement added. Amit Rohidas who mans India's defence along with captain Harmanpreet Singh serves a dual role in the team as he is also India's first rusher during the penalty corners. Coming to the match, Harmanpreet Singh-led Indian men's hockey team defeated Great Britain in a thrilling quarter-final match at the Paris Olympics and advanced into the semi-final. As the scores were level at 1-1 after the end of regulation time, India won the shootout 4-2 and made the semi-finals. In the second quarter of the encounter, India took a 1-0 lead after skipper Harmanpreet Singh converted a penalty corner. India had four penalty corner opportunities while Great Britain had five in the second quarter. Before halftime, Great Britain's Lee Morton scored the equaliser and gave his side a moment to breathe. In the second half, Great Britain failed to score, despite multiple opportunities. Meanwhile, in the shootout, India scored all four of their attempts. While Indian goalkeeper PR Sreejesh saved one, helping India move into the semis of the tournament.

Paris Olympics: India's Amit Rohidas set to miss semi-final clash against Germany

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The 2024 election cycle has been a brutal assault on our text message inbox.</li><li>Political groups seem to keep texting even after you reply, "STOP!"</li></ul>It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day</a> in the United States, and that means that come Wednesday morning, about half the country will be miserable, and half will be elated. One guy in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-election-predictions-trump-harris-pop-culture-bets-2024-10">France who bet $30 million on Trump winning</a> will feel something. There's also a chance that, as in 2020, our nation will groggily awaken to no result, existing in frantic limbo for a few days.But whatever that outcome is, one thing will unify both sides: Those awful campaign text messages will finally stop.For the past few months, my phone has been under constant assault from groups pleading for donations or trying to get me to click on shady-seeming links. I've gotten the messages from both sides — all sides, even.If you, too, have felt bombarded with political texts, you're not alone. The CEO of a big texting platform <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rumbleup.com/blog/digital-dialogues-political-texting-in-2024">said in May that he expected</a> 50% more political texts to be sent by Election Day this year when compared to 2022 — more than 25 billion of them.What's most vexing is that it seems impossible to get them to stop. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/political-text-messages-stop-17cf2abb">Joanna Stern for The Wall Street Journal</a> recently wrote about how she replied '"STOP" to one message, and then got 100 more. She spoke to people who worked at political texting firms, who confirmed her suspicions: If you reply "STOP," it can just confirm to these outfits that your number is active.You might not get any more texts from the specific group or political action committee that sent the text you responded to, but the campaign texting service now knows your number is active — and can sell your number to a different candidate or group.The result is like plucking a gray hair — pull one, and more sprout up in its place.<div type="image" title="screenshot of text messages" height="965" width="1286" msid="114991382" hostid="261" sizebytes="47390"></div><h2 id="49092f4a-b0ac-4081-8507-603e9274da3e">What the political text rules say</h2>The Federal Trade Commission <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fcc.gov/rules-political-campaign-calls-and-texts#:~:text=Political%20Robotexts&amp;text=If%20you%20are%20receiving%20texts,if%20you%20reply%20%22STOP.%22">makes rules</a> around robocalls and robotexts: They're exempt from the federal "Do Not Call" list, but there are other rules they have to follow — political messages sent by an autodialer require "the called party's express consent." But messages sent manually don't require an opt-in, so that's why you get so many messages saying, "Hi, Katie! It's Suzie from thus-and-so candidate."The FTC says you can report receiving texts you didn't ask for by forwarding the messages to 7726, or "SPAM."(A moment here to acknowledge all the Android users who are going to tell me that Android is much better at filtering out these spammy messages than the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-mac-products-great-classic-boring-2023-11">iPhone</a>. I see you, I acknowledge you, I respect you. Please do not email me telling me I should switch to Android.)This is an election where one of the biggest topics was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">prices at the grocery store</a> — a tangible pain point Americans feel in their everyday lives. But what about a different kind of pain — the pain of getting a text and thinking it's going to be something exciting, and then it's just political spam? Awful.The good news is, I'm sure by 2028, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chatgpt-perplexity-election-hub-ai-information-risks-2024-11">AI will have solved</a> all of this

Election Day means at least one good thing: No more political text messages!

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia outfitted its Shahed-136 drones with SIM cards and antennae, a war expert said in a new report.</li><li>The adaptation, first observed in late 2023, appears intended to help with navigation and strike capabilities.</li></ul>Russia equipped its deadly attack drones with cellphone parts to help improve their targeting capabilities, a war expert noted in a new report.Jack Watling, a senior research fellow and a land warfare expert at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, highlighted in a report last week that Russia has placed SIM cards in its explosive Shahed-136 drones and mounted antennae on the wings."These were used in two ways," Watling wrote in a September 6 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/tactical-opportunities-and-risks-mobile-phones">analysis</a> about the risks and opportunities of mobile phones on the battlefield."First, the UAV used the network to assist with navigation by triangulating off the bearings of mobile phone masts," he said, using the term UAV to describe an unmanned aerial vehicle."Second," he said, "the Russians were sending telemetry data from the UAVs back through the mobile phone network to help plan follow up strikes."The Shahed-136 is an Iranian one-way attack drone that Russia has been using to strike civilian infrastructure and energy facilities across Ukraine for two years. It has a range of more than 600 miles and carries a warhead of nearly 100 pounds.These notorious drones are relatively cheap compared to other Russian weapons like ballistic or cruise missiles and can be launched in swarms in a bid to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Moscow also has a locally produced version of the Shahed called the Geran-2.<div type="image" title="Wreckage of a drone amid dirt and rubble." height="1298" width="1732" msid="113268439" hostid="261" sizebytes="131854"></div>Russia's use of the cell network in Ukraine is not all upside, though. There are vulnerabilities as well."There is of course something rather suspicious about a mobile phone travelling at 350 kmph, and so these behaviours could be tracked, and it is possible to cut off SIMs identified as being used for such malicious purposes," Watling wrote."This is only possible, however, if the mobile phone network has effective relationships with security organisations," he said.Russia appears to have been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/downed-russian-shahed-drone-found-with-ukrainian-sim-card-2023-12">using SIM cards to help direct and pilot</a> its Shahed drones since late 2023, when Ukrainians discovered 4G modems that connect to the country's Kyivstar telecommunications network in drones that had been shot down.Cellphones and related technology have played a role on both sides of the war, with Russia and Ukraine using enemy signals to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-soldiers-rely-phones-to-fight-ukraine-risks-killing-them-2024-7">aid in their targeting</a> and strikes. Cellular data, for instance, can be used to pinpoint the location of large troop gatherings, which can then make soldiers vulnerable to attacks.Some militaries are trying to rein this behavior in. Russia, for instance, has repeatedly, albeit unsuccessfully, tried to get a handle on this problem. And recognizing the challenge, US Army officers have also been warning American forces that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cellphones-can-get-you-killed-modern-battlefield-army-officer-2024-4">bringing personal devices</a> to a future fight could have serious consequences.However, Watling argued militaries shouldn't view phones solely as threats."Soldiers should plan to leverage the advantages of these networks and be properly informed about the associated risks and accompanying mitigations," he said. "Used properly, mobile phone networks can help militaries to hide in the noise, distribute critical data, and deconflict with civilian authorities."

Russia put SIM cards in its exploding one-way attack drones to use Ukraine's cellphone network for strikes, war expert says

The conflicting narratives about the US economy seem to have one thing in common: extremity.There are those who argue that America isn't just on the edge of a recession but already in one: "The Sahm rule has triggered! The ISM is below 50! Payroll employment has been revised down by nearly 1 million!" The doomers are using anything they can to argue that the economy is in dire straits. On the other end of the spectrum are the people worried that the economy is too strong and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">headed for a "no landing" scenario</a> of stubbornly higher inflation and more pain for borrowers.It may not be as eye-catching, but the truth, based on the latest economic data, is that the US economy is in good shape and that there's a good chance it can achieve the long-desired "soft landing," or as I previously called it, "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2024-outlook-us-economy-stock-market-jobs-inflation-interest-rates-2023-11">economic nirvana</a>." Sure, recession is a risk, and there was a real sense of uncertainty during the summer. But with the Federal Reserve's recent interest-rate cut, the chance of a downturn is fading, and the notion that the economy has been in a recession for over a year strains credulity.<h2 id="2fbae559-c067-489c-83c6-4e049fb34bf0">We're not in a recession</h2>To determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. A popular definition says a recession is triggered after two straight quarters of falling GDP. But this is not the definition used by the official recession scorekeeper: the National Bureau of Economic Research. The group — made up of economists and experts in business-cycle research — takes a holistic view of the data, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions">defining recession as</a> "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." The four main variables the NBER uses are real incomes less government transfer payments like Social Security or unemployment benefits; industrial production; real spending; and employment. In recent decades, the recession-dating committee has given more weight to real incomes and payroll employment. The improvement across these indicators has not been uniform, but it's clear they've been moving in the right direction:<ul><li>Employment: So far this year, the economy has added an average of 176,000 jobs each month, including the benchmark revision. That's modestly slower than 2023 but still consistent growth.</li><li>Spending: In the eight months so far this year, consumers' real spending has advanced at a 2.1% annualized rate, below last year's 3.5% pace but hardly a disaster.</li><li>Incomes: Real incomes have advanced at a 2.7% annualized rate this year — a reasonable outcome, albeit slower than the rate in 2023.</li></ul><ul><li>Industrial production: The most sluggish of the four indicators, the output generated by America's manufacturers has been essentially flat since mid-2022.</li></ul>Taken together, these indicators suggest that the argument that the economy is in a recession — or on the precipice of one — is preposterous.So what about the revisions to economic data? Quite a bit of ink has been spilled on the notion that while the data might not definitely say recession right now, as more is gathered and updates are made, a recession will be obvious in the revised figures.Gathering data for an economy as large as ours is an arduous process, one that requires great care. Sometimes data gets revised because long-term seasonal patterns in economic activity shift, recontextualizing the numbers that came before. In the case of employment, there are more frequent revisions based on official tax data that was unavailable at the time of the initial report. If I was being generous, I'd say that, at worst, the revisions to recent data have been mixed. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Plus, GDP and its close cousin gross domestic income were revised upward by a good amount. Together, these things imply an economy that's growing at a decent, if not spectacular, clip. Those waiting on revisions that reveal a recession need to go back to the drawing board.<h2 id="5c826df3-5a90-44ea-9463-184b8762bdcc">Safety not guaranteed</h2>Now, just because the US economy isn't in recession doesn't mean the outlook is without risk. The most obvious risk to the economy is that the recent weakening of the job market will continue and that the Fed, in turn, will get stuck somewhat behind the curve in its efforts to arrest the rise in the unemployment rate. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market.Two data points stand out to me as signs that the dangers could be real:<ul><li>The Conference Board's labor differential collapsed to a fresh low of 12.6 in September. This measure is the difference between the percentage of surveyed consumers who say they think jobs are plentiful and the percentage who say they believe jobs are hard to get. Consumers tend to spot changes in their local economies before the official data, and in this case they're telling us more unemployment is on the way.</li><li>The hiring rate and the quits rate continue to trend down. Businesses aren't feeling upbeat enough to hire, and workers aren't feeling confident enough in their prospects to leave their jobs in search of a new one. We've even gone a bit beyond pre-pandemic normalization — at 1.9%, the quits rate is as low as it was in 2015. While it's encouraging that layoffs are low, the low rate of hiring implies it would not take much of an increase in layoffs to nudge employment growth to a much weaker rate.</li></ul>Yes, the latest employment report mitigates some of our concerns. But there's a chance conditions will deteriorate. For one, the strong-than-expected September jobs report represents a sharp rebound in momentum inconsistent with most other metrics in the economy. In other words, it could have been a one-off. The risk with unemployment is always that it builds on itself. If it has been rising, as it has over the past year and a half, it tends to keep rising.The mitigating factor here is the Fed. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. Leading up to the decision, there was some question about whether it would, in fact, cut a full 50 basis points. Some argued that such a large rate cut meant Powell and the other Fed officials were worried about growing risk ahead. I saw a different signal. It told us less about what was to come and more about what happened up to that point: The labor market had weakened, and inflation had cooled significantly, so the Fed was belatedly acknowledging that fact. Given the balance of risks and the strong signal of the rate cut, it has shown a commitment to act decisively should labor markets deteriorate further.<h2 id="3487bd46-be51-4bf2-af9c-caeb06bdbc23">Sure, but what does it mean for stocks?</h2>Financial markets are bets on the outlook, not the past. Telling an investor that a recession started six months or a year ago is useless. Even if a recession did start last fall or this spring, that doesn't mean equity prices go back in time and get revised down. So what's the point of making such a call in the first place?It's better to evaluate markets' next move based on the actual data we're seeing, plus a sober-minded projection of future economic shifts. Following the strength of the latest jobs report, the markets appear to be pricing in an inflationary boom — strong growth with sticky inflation. This has pushed up <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-impact-of-rate-cuts-10-year-treasury-yields-2024-9">bond yields</a> (which move in the opposite direction of their underlying price) and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">mortgage rates</a> while reigniting all the "no landing" talk. I think the economic outlook is more consistent with modest growth and slowing inflation. Given the recent market move and the expectations for a more benign outlook, bond investors are likely overdoing the sell-off, meaning that the market is set to bounce back as yields fall and that bonds are likely to do better than stocks in the short term.Longer term, I see a Fed willing to step in aggressively at the first sign of labor-market trouble. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move. Add in an economy continuing to expand with a benign inflation outlook, and that's a positive backdrop for equity investors. Stocks don't work when a recession becomes obvious. Perhaps we don't see the types of gains we've seen over the past year, but a deep correction does not seem likely either.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/neil-dutta">Neil Dutta</a> is head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research.

America dodged a recession. Now there's one last pitfall to avoid.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

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