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Former foreign secretary Harshvardan Shringla has said that <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> needs to engage with those in power now in <keyword id="19919639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bangladesh" source="keywords">Bangladesh</keyword>, as instability in the neighbouring country has a direct impact on the security scenario of the Northeastern region. Shringla said this at a programme in which a report on <keyword id="22838676" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="policy-options" source="keywords">policy options</keyword> for India in dealing with the current Bangladesh situation was released. The report, to be submitted to the Centre, was prepared by a think tank Society to Harmonise Aspirations for Responsible Engagement (SHARE). The political <keyword id="22838204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="instability-in-Bangladesh" source="keywords">instability in Bangladesh</keyword> has direct repercussions both on security and developmental projects in <keyword id="19953073" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="North-East-India" source="keywords">North East India</keyword>, security and defence experts, who are members of SHARE, said at the event. "India has to engage with those in power or those behind the powers in Bangladesh as stability in the neighbourhood has a direct import to the security scenario of North East India. "We have two core concerns - Bangladesh's territory not be used in any manner inimical to its (India's) interests and ensuring the safety of <keyword id="22838205" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindus-and-other-minorities" source="keywords">Hindus and other minorities</keyword> in the neighbouring country," the former ambassador to Bangladesh said. Shringla also said that the recommendations in this report are prefaced by three key facts -- it remains uncertain who is currently responsible for policy making in Bangladesh, there is palpable anti-India sentiments in the neighbouring country, and finally, <keyword id="19951169" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-stability" source="keywords">economic stability</keyword> and employment generation there. The report will submitted to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the National Security Advisor for implementation, former Eastern Command GOC-in-C Lt Gen R P Kalita (Retd) said at the event. Ex-Ladakh Lt Governor R K Mathur said that care has been taken to ensure the recommendations are "implementable and acceptable to all sections and ideologies" as the neighbouring country goes through socio-political upheaval. "The recommendations are divided into short, medium and long-term so as to ensure a staged approach to policymaking on India's part which is mutually acceptable," the former defence secretary said. Assam Chief Information Commissioner Bhaskar Jyoti Mahanta, highlighting the recommendations, said dialogue with all stakeholders is in India's core interests, especially with regard to tackling a possible <keyword id="21880634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="refugee-crisis" source="keywords">refugee crisis</keyword> in the Northeast which has a border of 1885 kms with Bangladesh. A matter of alarming concern for North East India is the disturbing developments of an armed mob breaking the high-security prison in Bangladesh's Sherpur on August 6 freeing more than 500 inmates while in another jail-break in Gazipur, 209 prisoners escaped, Mahanta said. Those who were freed include senior Ansarul Bangla Team (ABT) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, Bangladesh (JMB), the former DGP said. "This is an exceptionally alarming situation, especially for Assam and Tripura, where several ABT and JMB modules have been busted with 60 members of these outfits arrested from these states in 2022-23 and more than 30 of them are from Bangladesh," he said. This should ring alarm bells within India's internal security and law enforcement apparatus, Mahanta, who is also SHARE's General Secretary, pointed out. Connectivity is a key pillar of Indo-Bangla engagements with the vast spectrum of road, rail, inland water or even air connectivity projects that the two nations have embarked upon are a testament in this regard, he added. The report has pointed out that such connectivity exposes Northeast India to potential security concerns as these portals may be misused by anti-India elements to enter the region and wreak havoc. "The relevance of North East India in the context of Bangladesh remains disproportionately high and we have highlighted the need for a nuanced policy perspective," Mahanta asserted. Nagaland University Chancellor Samudragupta Kashyap and Cyber security expert Subimal Bhattacharjee moderated the event held on Sunday evening. Bangladesh Prime Minister Hasina, 76, resigned and fled to India on August 5 following a massive protest by students against a controversial quota system in government jobs. Following that, 84-year-old Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took oath as the Chief Adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh on August 8.

Security in NE a concern, India needs to engage with those in power in Bangladesh: Think tank

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine is facing a grim outlook along sectors of the front, especially in the east.</li><li>Kyiv's struggling with manpower and equipment shortages, among other challenges.</li></ul>Russia's grinding offensive operations have been gaining momentum in eastern Ukraine as challenges for the defenders mount. At the moment, Ukrainian forces in the east have a problem.Over the weekend, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said his soldiers were facing one of Russia's "most powerful" offensives since the start of war in February 2022 along various sectors of the front line.Ukraine's shocking invasion of Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-kursk-incursion-ww2-battle-of-the-bulge-2024-11">Kursk region</a> briefly took the focus off the fighting in the Donbas, but now Ukraine is losing ground both inside Russia and at home.In the Donbas, Ukrainian troops are falling back from defensive positions in towns throughout the Donetsk area. Last month, Russia made its most territorial gains in a single month since the summer of 2022, more than 150 square miles. Its costly attacks appear to be achieving some success.Russia's advances raise concerns that it could capture Pokrovsk, which serves as an important center for Ukrainian military logistics and operations in the Donbas, where the fighting in Ukraine first began a decade ago.<div type="image" title="A dark outline of a Ukrainian soldier standing on top of the ground with trees in the background. Everything is black and set against a grey sky." height="4000" width="6000" msid="114959778" hostid="261" sizebytes="1839280"></div>And inside Russia's Kursk region, Ukrainian troops are also losing territory they've occupied since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-can-pull-off-shock-complex-invasion-of-russia-2024-8">August 6 invasion</a>, and while the Russians face a tough fight to kick the Ukrainians out, Kyiv's forces inside Russia face challenges as well. On Monday, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said the US believed at least 10,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk to help back the territory from Ukraine.<h2 id="40ff497a-97db-40bf-b60b-d23e8d6d3a70">A tough fight in eastern Ukraine</h2>Russia's campaign in Ukraine has been costly. Western intelligence estimated in early September that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-hundreds-thousands-casualties-in-ukraine-western-intelligence-2024-9">over 600,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded</a> since the start of the war. Russia has also seen tremendous equipment losses, including thousands of armored vehicles."Despite the costs, both to matériel and personnel," Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and war analyst, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ukraine-war-why-russia-is-in-more-trouble-than-it-looks.html">told</a> the Intelligencer last month, the Russians have "been making fairly steady incremental gains."Russia has built up certain meaningful advantages in manpower, industrial capacity, and matériel, and it has largely held the initiative this year, leveraging that for gains on the battlefield.Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, recently painted a bleak picture in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-must-turn-tide-it-can-negotiate">Foreign Affairs</a> article, writing that the Ukrainian forces are stretched thin along the conflict's 600-mile front line and are struggling with shortages of armored combat vehicles, artillery, and ammunition.<div type="image" title="Four Russian soldiers riding a self-propelled mortar on a dusty track." height="1438" width="2555" msid="114959772" hostid="261" sizebytes="422596"></div>"The more it lacks these key types of equipment and weaponry, the more it must depend on infantry to hold the front, causing an associated rise in casualties," he wrote.And Ukraine cannot sustain significant losses, as manpower shortfalls have been a constant challenge.Late last month, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council told Kyiv's Parliament it would draft an additional 160,000 people; in the past, Ukrainian officials have considered various changes to conscription and recruitment, but the country has largely avoided taking what some observers see as necessary mobilization steps. Last weekend, the Ukrainian Air Force <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.co/ftCbACIupE">said</a> that it will transfer some of its personnel to serve as infantry.Watling noted that the thinning of Ukraine's tactical air defense has given Russian reconnaissance drones <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-downed-s70-drone-ukraine-still-got-it-uk-intel-2024-10">more freedom to provide critical targeting data</a> from locations deeper inside the country, allowing the Russians to then use missiles and loitering munitions to target key assets. Russia's improved intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance picture has been important, as have accelerated kill chains.Furthermore, Russian troops continue to execute relentless wave attacks that expose Ukrainian positions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hit-ukraine-hundreds-of-glide-bombs-less-than-week-2024-3">Glide bombs</a> are used to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-air-superiority-avdiivka-could-be-devastating-for-ukraine-2024-2">shatter defenses and drive back Ukrainian artillery</a>, letting Russia move its artillery forward.<div type="image" title="A US-provided M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on Russian positions on December 29 in Ukraine." height="1436" width="2160" msid="114959781" hostid="261" sizebytes="203660"></div>And then when Ukraine's defenses are broken, Watling wrote, the Russians push forward and raid the trenches to capture ground. These are bloody operations, but they appear to be yielding results.Russia's successful advances have prompted pessimism and low morale among some in Washington and Kyiv, officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html?smid=tw-share">told</a> The New York Times last week, and raise questions about what's next for Ukraine.The Russian army is not unstoppable, though. Kofman argued in his recent interview that "Russia's actually operating under very <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mass-advantage-should-decline-winter-or-2025-war-expert-2024-10">significant constraints</a>," adding that "its advantage on the battlefield is likely to decline as we get into this winter and look further ahead into 2025." Russia can't keep up the kind of losses it's been absorbing indefinitely, and its offensive will eventually culminate, with the possibility that it might be difficult for it to kick off a new one.US officials told The New York Times that a window of opportunity could open next summer for Ukraine to take advantage of expected Russian manpower and equipment shortages, but that possibility is conditional on whether US and Western support for Ukraine continues.<div type="image" title="Trump" height="2422" width="3804" msid="114959770" hostid="261" sizebytes="397396"></div>Right now, a big question mark for Kyiv is who will win the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris have presented voters with completely different approaches for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">how they'd handle the war in Ukraine</a>. While Trump has made a variety of claims about ending the war quickly, Harris has suggested she'd stay the course on supporting Ukraine's fight.But regardless of who wins, the party that controls Congress will also have a major impact on how much aid the US gives to Ukraine. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-vote-could-make-break-ukraine-in-war-with-russia-2024-4">Republicans in Congress notably blocked US assistance packages</a> to Ukraine late last year and into this year, which had consequences for Ukraine's ability to fight on the battlefield.

Ukraine is facing serious problems in the east, where Russia's forces are grinding forward

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19916007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-Korea" source="keywords">South Korea</keyword> says North Korean troops are being trained by <keyword id="19895159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="keywords">Russia</keyword> to fight in Ukraine.</li><li>The <keyword id="19900701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kremlin" source="keywords">Kremlin</keyword> said the cooperation between the two was "within the framework of international law."</li></ul>The Kremlin's alliance with <keyword id="19910206" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="North-Korea" source="keywords">North Korea</keyword> may have bolstered its campaign in Ukraine, but it's come at a potentially serious cost. South Korea's government this week signaled its fury over the growing alliance between the two countries. In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241021004252315?section=national/diplomacy">meeting</a> with Russia ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev, South Korea demanded the withdrawal of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">North Korean soldiers which it said were being trained by Russia to fight in Ukraine.</a> A senior official in the office of <keyword id="19905053" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Yoon-Suk-Yeol" source="keywords">Yoon Suk Yeol</keyword>, South Korea's president, said on Tuesday that South Korea is now mulling sending weapons to help <keyword id="20506587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ukrainian-troops" source="keywords">Ukrainian troops</keyword>, reports said. In response, the Kremlin seemed eager to reassure South Korea. Zinoviev said the alliance between Russia and North Korea was "within the framework of international law." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the North Korea-Russia alliance "should not worry anyone." He also dismissed reports of the troop deployment as "contradictory." Earlier that day South Korea had placed pressure on the Kremlin, releasing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/south-korean-satellite-confirms-1-500-dprk-special-forces-deployment-to-russia/ar-AA1sAYVp">satellite images that </a>it said showed 1,500 North Korean military personnel being sent to Russia. Analysts at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-21-2024">Insitute for the Study of War, a US think tank,</a> said that the Kremlin appears worried about the backlash from Seoul. "The Kremlin's apparent desire to assure South Korea that its cooperation with North Korea is not a threat to Seoul suggests that the Kremlin remains very concerned about the prospect of Seoul's potential pivot towards providing Ukraine with necessary military support, and the implications of worsened relations with Seoul for Russian security interests in the Asia Pacific region," its analysts wrote on Monday. <div type="image" title="Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin share a toast at a banquet table." height="859" width="1341" msid="114472694" hostid="261"></div><h2>Russia's dangerous new alliance</h2>For decades, South Korea has been in an uneasy standoff with its isolated and authoritarian neighbor, North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly menaced the South with the prospect of attack, while Seoul and its ally, the US, have sought to isolate North Korea and stymie its nuclear weapons program. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken the precarious balance of power in East Asia. Russia formed a new military alliance with North Korea to secure badly needed ammunition from North Korean stockpiles for its faltering campaign in Ukraine. South Korea is increasingly concerned about the technological capabilities and security guarantees North Korea has likely gained from Russia in return. Russia, previously a backer of sanctions designed to curtail North Korea's nuclear program, is now helping North Korea evade them. Analysts from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-korea-war-threatens-trillions-for-global-economy/">Bloomberg said in June </a>a war on the Korean peninsula could result in the loss of millions of human lives, and cost the global economy around $4 trillion. South Korea is a semiconductor and electronics manufacturing hub, meaning a disruption to its economy could have massive knock-on global effects. "The Ukraine war and its spillover to the Korean peninsula are taking a hard toll on the Seoul-Moscow relationship," wrote analyst Ellen Kim of the Center<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/seoul-moscow-relations-dangerous-slippery-slope"> for Strategic and International Studies in February.</a> Noting that "several factors could push the ROK-Russia [South Korea-Russia] relations off the cliff." <h2>South Korea says it could arm Ukraine</h2>In response to Russia's strengthened relationship with North Korea, South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in its battle against the Russian invasion. Russia's new defense treaty with North Korea in June seemed to mark a tipping point, with South Korea saying that it could overturn its long-standing ban on sending military assistance to countries at war to help Ukraine. It's a threat South Korea reiterated Tuesday, as officials from South Korea's National Security Council warned that the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia was a "grave security threat." It's a worrying prospect for Russia, with South Korea holding vast stockpiles of weapons that could help tip the war in Kyiv's favor. South Korea has large numbers of 155-millimeter artillery shells, a weapon Ukraine has been desperately short of and that its Western allies have struggled to produce in sufficient quantities. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/world/asia/leak-pentagon-south-korea-ukraine.html">The New York Times in 2023</a> reported that President Joe Biden has pressured South Korea to help it arm Ukraine with desperately needed shells, but South Korea had at that point hesistated. But in response to the latest escalation in North Korea's collaboration with Russia, South Korea again hinted that nothing was off the table as it weighed how to respond. South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong Kyun said in a statement Monday that the country would respond with "all available means in cooperation with the international community to any acts that threaten the core interests of South Korea." Correction: October 23, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the source describing South Korea's plans. It was a senior official in the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol; not an official named Yoon Suk Yeol.

Russia's friendship with North Korea may have backfired

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The UN Security Council met on Monday to press North Korea on nuclear non-proliferation.</li><li>Pyongyang had days earlier launched a new ICBM, which recorded North Korea's longest launch trajectory.</li></ul>Pyongyang went loud and proud on Monday about its plans for nuclear weapons as the United Nations grilled its representative over a recent missile launch."We will accelerate and will not let up on the build-up of our nuclear force that can counter any threat presented by hostile nuclear weapons states," said Kim Song, the North Korean ambassador to the UN, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbH_GEkkaw4">at a Security Council meeting.</a>"There will ever never be any change in this line," he added, referring to North Korea as a "responsible nuclear weapon state."Kim's statement comes as Japan reported that North Korea fired at least <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-fires-missile-south-korea-military-says-2024-11-04/">seven short-range ballistic missiles</a> from its east coast that ultimately fell into Japan-administrated waters.Launched on the eve of the US election, the missiles were characterized by Pyongyang as a response to recent joint military drills between the US, South Korea, and Japan involving their long-range bombers.Those joint drills were a signal to North Korea after its Thursday launch of what it said was a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile dubbed the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-new-icbm-missile-test-how-effective-2024-11">Hwasong-19</a>, which also landed in the Sea of Japan.Its trajectory was recorded as Pyongyang's longest-ever ballistic missile test, reaching an altitude of about 4,780 miles, though <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-responsible-for-new-north-korea-icbm-weapon-experts-say-2023-8">previous tests</a> have extended further in latitudinal distance.The US, Japan, and South Korea have condemned the launch.In his comments to the UN, Kim said the Hwasong-19 had "no slightest negative impact on the security of the neighboring countries."The UN Security Council had met on Monday to discuss the Hwasong-19 launch and to press North Korea on nuclear non-proliferation, but Kim instead blasted the meeting as "unlawful.""Today, the nuclear threat of the United States against the DPRK has already reached a critical point in terms of its scale and dangerous level," he said.<h2 id="0a21b4c2-3483-489e-b89e-c50366c67c1b">The US says North Korea 'emboldened' by Russia and China</h2>The US, in turn, accused Russia and China of protecting North Korea."Shielded from closer scrutiny of its sanctions-violating activities by Moscow and Beijing, Pyongyang, unsurprisingly, has been emboldened to continue advancing its unlawful ballistic missile and nuclear WMD programs," said Robert Wood, the deputy US ambassador to the UN.North Korean ties with Russia have more recently come under the spotlight as Moscow <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11">receives manpower</a> and arms from Pyongyang to fuel its war in Ukraine. South Korea said earlier this year that in return, North Korea has been acquiring food, raw materials, and tech expertise from Russia.Ukraine, the US, and the UK have estimated that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops may be embedded with Russian forces, and that at least <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-troops-ukraine-russia-kursk-8000-front-lines-2024-11">8,000 may soon be deployed to the front lines.</a>NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the manpower injection has given Russia a crucial way to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cant-sustain-ukraine-attack-without-north-korea-nato-chief-2024-10">sustain its attack on Ukraine</a>, where Moscow has been estimated to be losing about 1,000 soldiers a day.Meanwhile, the Kremlin appears to be struggling to recruit new Russian men for the war, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sign-up-bonuses-reaching-on-par-with-us-military-2024-7">soaring sign-up bonuses</a> in some cities indicating that the supply of applicants is running low.

North Korea told the UN point blank that it's speeding up nuclear weapons development

<ul class="summary-list"><li>South Korea says 1,500 North Korean troops have been sent to aid Russia in its war in Ukraine.</li><li>Its troops being deployed to Russia would mark a major shift in North Korea's foreign relations.</li></ul>South Korea's claims that North Korea is readying troops to send to fight in Ukraine have put the world on high alert for a major escalation.Experts on North Korea say the move would be a worrying upgrade to its relationship with Russia. They also said that North Korean troops could find themselves little more than cannon fodder.On Friday, South Korea's National Intelligence Service <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nis.go.kr:4016/CM/1_4/view.do?seq=320">said</a> Russian ships had transported about 1,500 troops from North Korea, and that they were expected to be deployed to the frontline in Ukraine after training.A second transport is planned soon, it said.South Korean media, meanwhile, has reported that Pyongyang is readying up to 12,000 troops.The spy agency said its findings confirmed media reports in recent weeks that suggested the secretive state was readying to commit troops to the war.To back its claims, the South Korean spy agency released satellite imagery purporting to show one of the transport ships carrying troops, as well as further images of what it said were hundreds of North Korean troops at Russian training grounds.<div type="image" title="This black-and-white image released by South Korea's spy agency the National Intelligence service purports to show a view of a coast with lines representing what NIS says is a Russian vessel transporting North Korean troops to Russia to fight in Ukraine, published by NIS October 18, 2024." height="378" width="644" msid="114472698" hostid="261" sizebytes="25502"></div>On Monday, in a meeting with Russia's ambassador to Seoul, South Korea demanded the troops' withdrawal, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-russia-ukraine-27780e4b672ee638b96099ec5f5168e4">the Associated Press reported</a>.Footage <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/19/asia/north-korea-ukraine-russia-troops-uniform-intl/index.html">shared with CNN</a> by the Ukrainian government also appears to show North Korean troops being kitted out with uniforms and equipment in the far east of Russia.According to the NIS, the troops have even been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-special-forces-sent-russia-disguised-with-fake-identification-2024-10">given Russian uniforms and fake IDs</a>.Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/f862e970-e80b-4239-9b0d-a548ead24731">has also said</a> North Korea is preparing to join the fight.North Korea has denied the reports.<h2 id="4fb47d60-e42a-4ae4-a6e8-db969b766ca6">A 'dramatic' step</h2>If true, the movement of troops "represents a dramatic step in North Korea foreign relations," said Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., an expert in North Korean defense at the Center for International and Strategic Studies.There have been plenty of reports of North Koreans aiding Russia, but only in limited numbers and largely in a technical capacity — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-military-officials-helping-russia-ukraine-win-for-kim-2024-10">advisors, engineers, and munitions experts</a> tasked with observing how North Korean munitions are faring. Few of them are likely to have crossed into Ukrainian territory.<div type="image" title="An estimated 400 North Korean personnel are gathered at a Russian military facility in Ussuriysk on October 16." height="351" width="646" msid="114472700" hostid="261" sizebytes="27814"></div>The possibility of training and potentially deploying large numbers of North Korean ground troops would be a major step.The use of North Korean troops to fight may well signal "that the recruitment and training system in Russia is under tremendous stress," Bermudez told Business Insider.<h2 id="a3963971-e39c-48b8-ae3e-c687e2bb0ad1">'Cannon fodder'</h2>North Korea experts told BI that the deployment of ground troops presents a logistical and cross-cultural challenge in terms of how they would operate."It is rather surprising that Russia would want such troops in combat, considering the probable logistic and other challenges that integrating such troops into Russian combat operations will likely entail," said Bermudez.He said the two states have some historical ties, but most North Koreans don't speak Russian, and vice versa."To conduct combat operations with an allied force that doesn't speak your language presents real problems," he said.<div type="image" title="North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observes special warfare training in September." height="415" width="637" msid="114472701" hostid="261" sizebytes="54742"></div>Bermudez also said that there is "a significant level of racism" within Russia's military, despite the country's wide ethnic diversity — and said the North Korean troops may start out at the bottom of the pecking order.Other experts said North Korean troops would experience the roughest end of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-russia-uses-infantry-and-mercenaries-for-attacks-in-ukraine-2023-5">Russia's notoriously brutal military hierarchy</a>, which marks some as expendable."The grim reality is that the North Korean troops will likely simply be cannon fodder for Russia," said Edward Howell, a North Korea expert at the University of Oxford.Jim Hoare, a former diplomat for the UK in North Korea, agreed. "I think it's going to be a nightmare, actually," he said.Hoare also pointed to the risk of North Korean troops defecting, which would loom over any deployment.In a report this month that BI was unable to verify, Ukrainian state broadcaster Suspilne <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://suspilne.media/858583-vijskovi-kndr-vze-tikaut-z-pozicij-na-kordoni-iz-branskou-ta-kurskou-oblastami-dzerela/">cited</a> an anonymous intelligence official as saying that 18 North Korean servicemen had deserted so far.<h2 id="46461d5b-fc5c-4dad-99a1-b02ee84bbc0a">A dangerous partnership</h2>Troop deployments to Ukraine would be a sign that the relationship between Russia and North Korea is "much closer and more dangerous than we want," Bermudez said.Western officials have generally dismissed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-deals-north-korea-iran-no-laughing-matter-ukraine-experts-2024-3">the growing partnership between the countries</a> as a desperate arrangement between rogue states, each with nowhere else to turn.But in the short term at least, the partnership has worked for both sides.Pyongyang receives a trade lifeline and vital military insight. North Korean weapons have been a significant help for Russian advances in Ukraine in the last year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/north-korea-supplies-half-of-the-shells-used-by-russia-in-ukraine-d3fkhppjs">according to The Times of London </a>.Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, seemingly upped the ante this summer, signing a "mutual-aid" agreement that confirmed "the full support and solidarity of the DPRK government and people to the Russian government and people as regards the special military operations in Ukraine," <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://kcna.co.jp/item/2024/202406/news20/20240620-02ee.html">per North Korean state media</a>.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea." height="3062" width="4592" msid="114472702" hostid="261" sizebytes="434790"></div>According to Howell, the agreement said that each country would provide the other with mutual assistance in the event of an external attack, but it was "deliberately vague."In Howell's view, what was initially a purely "transactional" relationship with little ideological kinship has "escalated to new heights."Russia and North Korea don't care about being seen as delinquent actors in defying sanctions, said Howell."They don't care about their international status being lowered," he added. "And I think that's what makes this particularly concerning."

North Korea sending troops into Ukraine could supercharge an already-close partnership with Russia

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea conducted a short-range ballistic missile launch hours before US Election Day.</li><li>Data shows that North Korea ramps up its missile and military activity around US elections.</li></ul>North Korea fired off multiple short-range ballistic missiles just hours before Election Day in the US and just a few days after an intercontinental ballistic missile launch.Research has shown that Pyongyang typically engages in provocations, such as displays of its prohibited missile program, around US elections, stirring up a certain degree of trouble. The latest provocations come as North Korea draws closer to Russia and amid confirmations that thousands of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-north-korea-would-go-to-war-for-russia-2024-10">North Korean troops are aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine</a>.On Tuesday, North Korea launched several ballistic missiles toward the East Sea/Sea of Japan, South Korea's military said. Japan also confirmed the launch, with its defense ministry saying the missiles were believed to have landed in the sea shortly after launch.The launch came on the heels of a test of North Korea's newest intercontinental ballistic missile believed to be capable of striking the US mainland. The missile, identified as the Hwasong-19, is a massive solid-fueled missile.The ICBM launch, which was directly overseen by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was met by a joint US-South Korean-Japanese drill, which included the involvement of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/b-1-bomber-message-iranian-proxies-us-air-force-colonel-2024-2">US B-1B supersonic bomber</a>. The exercise drew criticism from Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, who accused the US and its allies of engaging in aggressive and dangerous actions toward North Korea.North Korea's missile launches didn't necessarily come as a surprise to the US and South Korea, the latter of which said that Pyongyang was likely to engage in provocative military displays ahead of the US election.<div type="image" title="North Korea's &quot;Hwasong-19&quot; missile rises into the sky with smoke trailing from its tail." height="3321" width="5000" msid="114992212" hostid="261" sizebytes="156092"></div>Past Korea research has suggested that North Korea prioritizes such showcases around pivotal moments for Washington, such as presidential elections.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://beyondparallel.csis.org/dprk-provocations-likely-around-u-s-presidential-election/">report</a> by Victor Cha, a leading Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the former director for Asian Affairs on the White House's National Security Council, shows patterns in North Korean behavior around US elections.Over the course of 32 elections since 1956, the report found that the provocation window has narrowed over time — meaning "North Korean provocations have clustered increasingly closer to US presidential and congressional midterm elections." That trend has been especially evident, the 2020 report said, in the last few elections.Cha wrote that "the average window for a North Korean provocation bracketed around all US national elections (i.e., before or after)," under Kim Jong Un, is 4.5 weeks. That is a much tighter window than the world saw during the rule of his predecessors.Notably, these numbers don't include the 2018 midterm election, "where there was a prolonged and anomalous period of no provocations as a result of the Trump-Kim Singapore summit," the CSIS Beyond the Parallel report said. During former President Donald Trump's first term, his priorities in US-North Korean relations were focused on negotiations and denuclearization, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-sitting-pretty-as-russia-china-vie-for-attention-2024-1">ultimately failed after a 2019 summit in Vietnam</a>.There have been three instances where North Korea has engaged in a provocation on the same day as an election: the 1978 midterm and the 1980 and 1996 presidential elections.The CSIS study also notes that there could be "multiple causes," including scientific, military, and domestic reasons, for North Korea's timing of its launches and military actions, but the clustering is still significant and aligns with assessments from the US and its allies.<div type="image" title="A news program shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and three men standing next to cylinders used to produce weapon-grade nuclear material." height="2920" width="5000" msid="114992216" hostid="261" sizebytes="554692"></div>North Korea's missile launches come on the heels of confirmation that it has sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia to aid Moscow's forces in its war in Ukraine. The US confirmed the presence of the troops late last month after South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence agencies reported the soldiers were training at Russian military bases. Pyongyang's decision to send troops is part of a strengthening partnership between North Korea and Russia.Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim held several high-profile meetings on North Korean military assistance to Russia, which included an arms deal, and North Korean ammunition, including artillery ammo and missiles, has been documented <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-new-north-korean-missiles-made-this-year-ukraine-2024-9">in use in the war in Ukraine</a>. Experts remain concerned about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-worrying-military-tech-north-korea-could-get-from-russia-2024-6">what North Korea could be receiving in return for its support for Russia</a>, which some American officials and analysts have suspected could be advanced military technology for satellites and nuclear submarines, as well as support for Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs.

North Korea likes to stir up trouble around US elections, and this time around, it's been at it with missiles

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The comments were made by the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR.</li><li>"They supply huge amounts of artillery ammunition, which is critical for Russia," said Kyrylo Budanov.</li></ul>In the wake of the Ukraine war, Russia has formed a close alliance with China, the world's second-biggest economy, and boosted trade ties with other major economies, such as India.Yet according to the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, the Kremlin's most important ally during the war isn't <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">economically and militarily powerful China, </a>but North Korea, an isolated pariah state whose economy has been damaged by decades of sanctions.Speaking at an event in Kyiv Saturday, Budanov said that North Korea's military aid to Russia was of more concern to Ukraine than the support Russia's other allies had provided, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-spy-chief-says-n-korean-military-aid-russia-presents-major-battlefield-2024-09-14/">reported Reuters.</a>"They supply huge amounts of artillery ammunition, which is critical for Russia," he said, pointing to an increase in battlefield hostilities following such deliveries.For decades, North Korea has been among the poorest and most isolated Asian countries, with the UN imposing severe sanctions to curtail its nuclear weapons program.However, the Ukraine war enabled North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to improve his situation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-kim-jong-un-pact-russia-north-korea-authoritarian-world-2024-6">forming a valuable security</a> pact with Russian President Vladimir Putin's Russia in June.As Russia's Ukraine invasion has developed into a grinding war of attrition, both sides are firing huge numbers of shells daily, and replenishing supplies has become a major challenge.Russia has found a new supply line in North Korea, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-alliance-north-korea-proving-to-be-a-win-win-2024-8">has sent millions of shells</a> from its aging stockpiles as well as boosted domestic production to supply the Kremlin's forces.In return, Kim has secured new security pledges from Putin, alongside access to valuable Russian military technology.Ukraine's Western allies, meanwhile, have struggled to keep pace with the demand for shells, meaning Russia has secured an important advantage.North Korea has also provided Russia with ballistic missiles, that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/Military_Power_Publications/DPRK_Russia_NK_Enabling_Russian_Missile_Strikes_Against_Ukraine.pdf">US Defense Intelligence Agency in May </a>said had been used by Russia in attacks on Ukrainian towns.According to reports, North Korean shells and other equipment are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-low-quality-north-korean-shells-injure-troops-ukraine-says-2023-12">often of dubious quality, but </a>they remain an important resource for the Russian military,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-alliance-north-korea-proving-to-be-a-win-win-2024-8"> analysts told Business Insider in August.</a>Russia has also secured supplies of ballistic missiles from Iran in recent weeks, and Budanov reportedly said it was also boosting its capacity to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-not-using-glide-bombs-kursk-hit-self-ukraine-expert-2024-8">produce the "glide bomb" missiles </a>that devastated Ukrainian positions.Ukraine is currently battling to hold back intensifying Russian attacks in Donetsk, east Ukraine, but has seized control of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kursk-incursion-getting-tougher-losses-same-as-ukraine-front-soldiers-2024-9">swath of Russian territory</a> in Kursk.

North Korea may be Russia's most dangerous ally, Ukraine spy chief says 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Todor Merdjanov recounts his month studying at Kim Il Sung University in North Korea.</li><li>He attended intensive language classes by university professors while also exploring Pyongyang and further afield.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Todor Merdjanov, 33, a Bulgarian university student who spent a month in September 2013 attending Korean language classes at Kim Il Sung University in Pyongyang, North Korea.Merdjanov currently works as a copywriter for a digital marketing agency and an official translator for the Bulgarian embassy in Seoul, South Korea. The following has been edited for length and clarity.It's been over a decade since I sat in the water of a Pyongyang public bathhouse, fielding questions from several North Korean university students.The communal bath house is a place for bonding and chatting with friends. It's a cultural staple in both North and South Korea.It was also a very strange experience to be paddling naked next to the other students from my dorm at Kim Il Sung University in the capital city of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-north-korea-balloons-bts-choco-pie-activists-loudspeakers-2024-6">North Korea</a>.I had been studying at the country's oldest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korean-scholar-studies-life-north-korea-by-studying-trash-2022-4">university</a> for several weeks, and with almost no opportunities to contact the outside world, I had come to see these students as my friends.<div type="image" title="Outside of Kim Il Sung University" height="1536" width="2048" msid="112626606" hostid="261" sizebytes="221082"></div>Life at Kim Il Sung University differed greatly from my time as a 22-year-old student of Korean Studies in Sofia, Bulgaria.When I accepted the offer by my professors to travel to the mysterious nation — with no safety instruction besides what we had learned about the Koreas in our lectures — I was excited to meet North Koreans firsthand.<div type="image" title="Traditional North Korean dishes on a round tray." height="1536" width="2048" msid="112626609" hostid="261" sizebytes="122744"></div>A classmate and I arrived in Pyongyang after a short flight from Beijing on a hot September day.We were shown around our accommodation, which we shared with around 35 North Korean, Chinese, Vietnamese, and Mongolian students.We were given the rules for our trip by the housing manager, a North Korean man in his forties employed by the university and who oversaw the residence: We could only travel a short distance from the dormitory alone, always ask permission to go further, and respect the curfew of 9 p.m. for all international students.All the university students wore a uniform. Men wore a white shirt and a dark red tie; women wore a white shirt and a dark pleated skirt.Everyone, both within the university and outside, also wore a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-fashion-kim-jong-un-lapel-pin-2024-7">metal badge</a> with the faces of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea, and Kim Jong Il, the recently deceased leader.Students had lectures Monday through Saturday, with Sunday as the only rest day.Students took turns cleaning the hallways and gardens of their university in between classes, a custom in schools across East Asia.<div type="image" title="An empty classroom with long desks, chairs and several textbooks and water bottles." height="1536" width="2048" msid="112626615" hostid="261" sizebytes="105476"></div>My Bulgarian classmate and I were given our lessons separately from the rest of the North Korean student body that attended the university. We had two seminars per day, one on Korean reading comprehension, another on Korean conversation, and an extra class on Saturday.Classes at Kim Il Sung University were hard work. My exchange partner and I would spend hours completing homework and memorizing hundreds of new words a week. We would often be asked to summarize complicated texts based on North Korean folk tales or the life and achievements of Kim Il Sung, the country's founding leader.Ideology was integrated into the curriculum. Our role was always to learn the language and better understand North Korean culture.<div type="image" title="A large square palace with the images of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il on the facade." height="1536" width="2048" msid="112626616" hostid="261" sizebytes="128942"></div><h2 id="d5e36635-680d-4676-9356-1757453a8c1b">We were given more access to Pyongyang than your average tourist</h2>I spent a lot of time exploring.Although we were only supposed to go as far as the few shops for foreigners located in the streets outside the dorm, we asked the other North Korean students how far they thought we could wander.We explored the town center, local shops, and rode the subway a few times.We were only asked for our passports once from a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rare-pictures-of-north-korea-military-2016-4#most-motor-vehicles-are-owned-by-military-or-government-officials-restrictions-on-car-ownership-mean-its-rare-for-private-citizens-to-own-them-18">soldier</a> in the street. Our palms sweating, he made a phone call and then handed back our documents. We scurried back to the dorm as fast as we could. No one mentioned the incident.Our North Korean friends accompanied us on every official <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-inside-north-korea-summer-camp-songdowon-russia-school-kids-2024-7#russian-kids-will-get-to-experience-songdowong-again-this-summer-18">excursion</a>. We often played games together, shared snacks, and talked about our lives at home.<div type="image" title="A stormy beach with several people sat in the sand or in the water." height="1536" width="2048" msid="112626613" hostid="261" sizebytes="69888"></div>One day, a group of North Korean students told all the foreigners in the dorm to dress formally and to meet in the lobby. We couldn't take our keys or wallets, and none of us knew what was in store.After being loaded onto a bus, I realized we were headed to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-mass-games-parade-performance-south-korea-2018-9#south-korean-president-moon-jae-in-second-to-the-left-south-korean-first-lady-kim-jung-sook-far-left-north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-second-to-the-right-and-his-wife-ri-sol-ju-far-right-receive-flowers-before-watching-the-performance-1">Arirang Mass Games</a>.The show is the world's largest gymnastics display and one of the most important events in the North Korean calendar. It has also previously included over 100,000 performers.We were seated in a section of the stadium reserved for foreign students and diplomats.What looked like tens of thousands of North Korean children and adults played music, gave traditional dance performances, and conducted intricate gymnastics routines. Colored lights and lasers danced around the crowd, and fireworks cracked overhead.The spectacle of the Mass Games is the scale of the participation. We knew we had just witnessed something that few people outside North Korea could ever claim to have seen.<div type="image" title="The skyline of Pyongyang" height="1536" width="2048" msid="112626603" hostid="261" sizebytes="162608"></div><h2 id="f2ff7d54-0edf-4d91-9ac5-2ce288577984">Saying goodbye, knowing we'd never be back</h2>After four weeks in the country, it was time to say goodbye.As soon as we arrived in Beijing, I video-called my parents. In Pyongyang, I had only been able to call them twice: once from an international hotel and once during a visit to the Bulgarian embassy. Each call was only a couple of minutes long.During my exchange, I spoke to young North Korean people, asking them about their ambitions. Many students wanted the same things as we did: to travel and experience the world. I was discouraged and sad, knowing they could not travel as I had.Two years later, in 2015, I went on another university exchange, this time to South Korea.We were allowed to visit the 38th parallel, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-north-korea-have-put-south-korea-in-a-predicament-2024-7">demilitarized border</a> zone between North and South Korea.On the way there, the other exchange students chatted excitedly over the opportunity to glimpse such a forbidden country.As I gazed over the border to the North Korean hills and fields in the distance, I could vividly see the names and faces of people I knew there. Knowing that I would never see or speak to them again, I wondered, sadly, what they were doing now.

I studied in North Korea for a month. The isolation shocked me the most.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US Navy has no aircraft carriers in the Pacific as focus remains on the Middle East.</li><li>The absence raises some concerns amid tensions in the region and continued Chinese aggression.</li></ul>The US Navy currently has no aircraft carriers deployed in the Pacific as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East demand the military's attention.The carrier gap in US naval power in what the Pentagon has said is a priority region raises some potential concerns about whether the force posture matches stated priorities, especially as China throws its weight around, alarming US allies and partners.The Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived in the Middle East last week, joining the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which has been in the area since the beginning of the month.Both of the carrier strike groups came from the Pacific, and the Pentagon has said that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-groups-significant-combat-power-middle-east-2024-8">both will remain in Middle East for an undisclosed amount of time</a>. Their deployments follow two others by East Coast-based carriers to the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-fourth-aircraft-carrier-warships-react-middle-east-fighting-2024-8">response to the ongoing crises</a>.The latest deployment marks the first time two US carrier strike groups have operated together in the Middle East since 2020. It is also a strong signal of US support for Israel and is intended as a deterrence against Iran and its proxies. And it came at a perilous time as the region braces for further violence and unrest.<div type="image" title="An E-2C Hawkeye descends on an aircraft elevator on a US Navy aircraft carrier." height="667" width="1000" msid="112877091" hostid="261" sizebytes="21792"></div>But the move has left the Pacific without a deployed aircraft carrier, a powerful combat platform and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-wants-to-build-aircraft-carriers-2024-6">visible symbol of American naval power</a> that reflects US interests and security commitments in priority regions.US aircraft carriers and the other warships in their strike groups bring a tremendous amount of firepower to any situation, making them formidable power projection assets that represent the military's reach and readiness.All of the US West Coast-based carriers are in port or currently unavailable. The USS Ronald Reagan, which was home-ported in Japan for nine years as the Navy's only forward-deployed carrier, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uss-ronald-reagan-aircraft-carrier-ends-yearslong-pacific-stint-2024-5">was recently redeployed</a> back to the States. And the replacement, the USS George Washington, remains in San Diego for the time being.Asked about how long the US military expects not to have an aircraft carrier in the region and whether the absence of carriers is concerning, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said that the Indo-Pacific was still the US' primary focus, a statement consistent with Pentagon rhetoric consistently identifying China as a "pacing challenge" for the military.<div type="image" title="Aircraft on the USS Theodore Roosevelt." height="2572" width="3600" msid="112877094" hostid="261" sizebytes="366072"></div>"You know, as we look at global force management and as we look at requirements around the world in support of our national security interests, we're always taking great care to make sure that we can cover those commitments to include, in our priority theater, which is the Indo-Pacific region," Ryder told reporters on Tuesday."So we have a significant amount of capability there to include a large naval presence," he added.Earlier this month, Ryder took a similar question about whether the Pentagon could posture forces in both the Pacific and Middle East at the same time.He said that "the thing about the US military, as you're seeing this week, is that we have the ability to surge forces and capabilities to where we need them, when we need them.""The Indo-Pacific Command continues to be our priority theater, and that is indicative of the number of forces that we have that are located within the region," Ryder said.Bryan Clark, a former naval officer and current defense expert at the Hudson Institute, told Business Insider "the inability of the US to maintain more than one carrier in the Pacific, short of a wartime surge, will require the Navy to rely more on amphibious ready groups and submarines to deter aggression from China or North Korea."The US Navy presently has the Boxer and America amphibious readiness groups in the Pacific, according to the USNI News fleet and maritime tracker. Submarine activities are not broadcast as clearly as those of other ships.A US Pacific Fleet spokesperson told BI that the US has "several ships operating across the Pacific to promote adherence to a rules-based international order, as well as maintain the presence and flexibility to rapidly respond to persistent and emergent missions."<div type="image" title="A US aircraft carrier sails in the Pacific Ocean with a cloudy sunset in the background." height="1474" width="2211" msid="112877093" hostid="261" sizebytes="76930"></div>The recent changes in the force posture of US naval power come amid rising tensions in the Pacific, particularly as China continues its aggressive behavior.On Monday, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-military-spy-plane-violated-japans-airspace-2024-8">Chinese military spy plane violated Japanese airspace for the first time</a>, and China also continues to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">confront Philippine vessels and aircraft in the South China Sea</a>. It has also been upping its pressure on Taiwan, continuing to trigger concerns about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-could-quickly-seize-key-islands-from-taiwan-2024-8">quarantine</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-drills-a-test-as-well-as-show-of-force-2024-5">potential blockade,</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">invasion</a>.The US military serves as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-not-ready-china-war-military-economy-2023-5">security guarantor</a> for Taiwan and American allies in the Indo-Pacific region. As tensions rise, so do the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">risks</a>, highlighting the value of being able to maintain deterrence in this region the way it is in the Middle East. That doesn't all hinge on a carrier, but the gap is notable nonetheless.

The US Navy has no aircraft carriers deployed in Pacific as Middle East conflicts pull the Pentagon's focus from China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt is on its way to the Middle East after exercises in Asia.</li><li>Its departure will leave the US Navy without a carrier in the Western Pacific region unless another can be tasked to the area.</li></ul>Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are drawing the US military's focus and risk leaving the US Navy without any aircraft carriers operating in the Western Pacific, which is home to a major US rival and longtime foes.The only US carrier in the area is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3814264/statement-from-pentagon-press-secretary-maj-gen-pat-ryder-on-the-eisenhower-car/">on its way to the Middle East</a> following a series of military drills in the Pacific. Meanwhile, China continues to demonstrate its ambitions with a growing fleet of carriers while American adversaries stir unease.Late last month, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-aircraft-carrier-south-korea-north-korea-russia-putin-kim-2024-6">USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group arrived in South Korea</a> for a joint exercise with its host nation and Japan. While the exercise was pre-planned, it came at a tense time in the region, just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-north-korea-have-put-south-korea-in-a-predicament-2024-7">a historic defense pact</a> that has had far-reaching geopolitical reverberations.When the Roosevelt and the other elements of the strike group arrived, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/ilovenavy/">South Korean navy said</a> that the presence of the Nimitz-class nuclear-powered carrier and the other US warships "demonstrates the strong combined defense posture of the South Korea-US alliance and their firm resolve to respond to the escalating threats from North Korea."After the exercise wrapped up, the Roosevelt strike group set sail for Middle Eastern waters, where it will take over the defense of commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. After USS Gerald R. Ford and the Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Roosevelt is the third aircraft carrier that has been sent to respond to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-third-carrier-strike-group-react-middle-east-conflict-2024-6">fighting in the Middle East</a> ignited by the Israel-Hamas war.<div type="image" title="A US Navy aircraft sits on the deck of the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier with a few sailors standing nearby as a red light shines on them while the sun sets." height="3531" width="5296" msid="111522959" hostid="261" sizebytes="947116"></div>The steady movement of the Roosevelt out of the Western Pacific and the departure of USS Ronald Reagan before that risks leaving an aircraft carrier-shaped hole in the US Navy's presence in the region at a time when Russia and North Korea are creating new headaches for US ally South Korea and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-wants-to-build-aircraft-carriers-2024-6">China is increasingly conducting its own carrier operations</a> and flexing its muscles against another US ally, the Philippines.Business Insider was unable to reach the Pentagon for comment on carrier movements or US force posture in the Western Pacific. The USNI News fleet tracker <a target="_blank" href="https://news.usni.org/2024/07/01/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-july-1-2024">indicated</a> on July 1 that USS Carl Vinson was in the Eastern Pacific around Hawaii for the big Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) naval exercise while the Roosevelt appeared to be working its way toward the South China Sea. USS Carl Vinson is available for necessary tasking, but it lacks the presence provided by a forward-deployed carrier.On July 2, the Roosevelt strike group was in the Philippine Sea, according to imagery and information from what is known as DVIDS, or the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service.<div type="image" title="The Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier." height="3320" width="5000" msid="111522961" hostid="261" sizebytes="1500744"></div>As the Roosevelt travels to keep up the seeminglty endless fight against the Houthis, China's navy has been active. The aircraft carrier Shandong and a Chinese amphibious assault ship conducted an exercise in the South China Sea earlier this week.The Shandong is one of two Chinese Soviet-style carriers. The warship features a ski-jump-style ramp like its predecessor, Liaoning. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-seen-with-aircraft-mock-ups-images-2024-4">China's newest carrier</a>, Fujian, has a catapult launch system similar to the one on the US Navy's new Ford-class carriers.China's carriers — the speed at which they're building and fielding them, as well as how and where they're operating them — demonstrate a focus in Beijing on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-more-to-learn-to-match-us-2024-5">building a carrier fleet capable of projecting military power</a> in the region and potentially globally.Lately, China has also ramped up altercations with the Philippines in contested waters in the South China Sea. Just late last month, Chinese personnel armed with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">machetes and spears</a> attacked Filipino navy personnel in disputed waters. The Coast Guard, however, has taken charge in this spat, as opposed to the navy.

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