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<keyword id="19896018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kerala" source="keywords">Kerala</keyword> is on high alert following the death of a 14-year-old boy from <keyword id="20824677" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="malappuram" source="keywords">Malappuram</keyword> district due to the <keyword id="21881533" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nipah-virus" source="keywords">Nipah virus</keyword>. To prevent the situation from escalating further, the central government has stepped in to assist the <keyword id="73082" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kerala-government" source="Orion">Kerala government</keyword> and safeguard the public.<br /><br />A zoonotic illness, the <keyword id="20197512" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nipah" source="keywords">Nipah</keyword> virus,infection is transmitted from animals like pigs and fruit bats to humans, as well as through contaminated food and contact with an infected person. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has even flagged the virus as a priority pathogen due to its epidemic potential.<br /><br />The boy from Malappuram showed symptoms of acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) and was initially treated in Perinthalmanna before being transferred to a higher health centre Kozhikode. The National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune subsequently confirmed the <keyword id="22489646" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nipah-virus-infection" source="keywords">Nipah virus infection</keyword>.<br /><br />In response, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) sent monoclonal antibodies for patient management and a mobile Biosafety Level-3 (BSL-3) laboratory for testing additional samples from contacts. Unfortunately, the boy's “poor general condition” prevented the administration of the antibodies.<br /><cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Health ministry advises Kerala to take four immediate public health measures" comment="subhead" text="Health ministry advises Kerala to take four immediate public health measures"><span data-til="noop"><keyword id="19896140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="health-ministry" source="keywords">Health ministry</keyword> advises Kerala to take four immediate public health measures</span></cmsannotation><br />The 14-year-old’s demise in Malappuram has triggered an urgent public health response from the Centre, with the Union health ministry advising Kerala to take four immediate health measures to ensure public safety. They are as follows:<br /><br />1. <strong>Active Case Search</strong>: The state government should begin active case searches within the family of the confirmed case, the neighbourhood and other areas with similar topography to identify any additional cases. This proactive approach will help in early detection and containment.<br /><br />2. <strong>Contact Tracing</strong>: The state should trace contacts the identified case had over the past 12 days. This includes monitoring these contacts for symptoms and taking steps to prevent further spread of the virus. Detailed records of interactions and movements of the infected individual will be crucial.<br /><br />3. <strong>Quarantine and Isolation</strong>: Contacts of the confirmed case should be strictly quarantined, and any suspects showing symptoms should be isolated. This measure is essential to contain the virus and prevent it from spreading within the community.<br /><br />4. <strong>Sample Collection and Testing</strong>: Samples from potential contacts and suspects should be collected and transported for laboratory testing. This ensures early detection and allows for a swift response to any new cases that may arise.<br /><br />To assist the Kerala government, a multi-member joint outbreak response team from the National ‘<keyword id="15536661" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="One-Health-Mission" source="Orion">One Health Mission</keyword>’ will be deployed. This team will help investigate the case, identify epidemiological linkages and provide technical support.<br /><div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111771996" title="What is the Chandipura virus that has already claimed the lives of 6 children in Gujarat?" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Meanwhile, Kerala Health Minister Veena George has confirmed that an additional 60 people have been identified as high-risk for contracting the disease.<br /><br />Amid this situation, residents in vulnerable areas have been instructed to take precautions, such as wearing masks in public and avoiding hospital visits.<br /><br />The Nipah virus has been linked to dozens of deaths in Kerala since its first report in 2018. The state has faced multiple outbreaks, with the most recent occurring in 2023 in Kozhikode district.<br />

Nipah virus: Health Ministry instructs Kerala to enforce four immediate safety measures following 14-year-old's death

Bengaluru (Karnataka) [India], September 15 (ANI): In view of the <keyword id="6544034" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nipah-virus" source="Orion">Nipah virus</keyword> cases in Kerala, the <keyword id="2234081" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Karnataka-health-department" source="Orion">Karnataka Health Department</keyword> issued a circular on Thursday to intensify surveillance in the districts bordering Kerala to prevent the transmission of the infection.<br /><br />With one more case of <keyword id="6545212" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nipah" source="Orion">Nipah</keyword> virus confirmed in Kerala's Kozhikode on Friday, the total tally is now at 6, including 2 deaths. All cases have been recorded in Kozhikode.<br /><br />In the circular, the Karnataka Health Department advised district authorities to "Set up check posts for fever surveillance at points of entry from Karnataka to Kerala. Intensify fever surveillance in bordering districts such as Chamarajanagar, Mysore, Kodagu, and Dakshin Kannada."<br /><br />Moreover, the Karnataka Health Department has advised people to avoid unnecessary travel from Karnataka to affected areas in Kerala.<br /><br />Amid concerns over the <keyword id="6544038" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nipah-virus-in-Kerala" source="Orion">Nipah virus in Kerala</keyword>, the Kerala government on Thursday took 15 body-fluid samples of those in the 'high-risk' contact list linked to the first Nipah victim for testing.<br /><br />The contact list contains 950 people, of whom 213 are in the high-risk category. 287 health workers are also on the contact list.<br /><br />Four people in high-risk categories are in a private hospital, and 17 people are under surveillance at Kozhikode Medical College.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Union Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare, Dr Bharati Pravin Pawar, reviewed steps taken for containment of the Nipah virus outbreak in Kozhikode, Kerala, from the Indian Council of Medical Research - National Institute of Virology (ICMR-NIV), in Pune, on Thursday.<br /><br />Following the Nipah virus outbreak in Kozhikode district, the District Collector has declared holidays for all educational institutions, including Anganwadis, Madrasas, tuition centres, and professional colleges, on September 16, in addition to the two-day holiday already declared for September 14 and September 15.<br /><br />Amid growing concerns over a resurgence of the Nipah virus in Kerala, the state government strengthened measures to prevent the spread of infection a day after two deaths from it were confirmed in Kozhikode district. <br /><br />

Nipah scare: Karnataka issues advisory for districts bordering Kerala

A zoonotic virus meaning that which is transmitted from animals to humans, Nipah virus can also be passed on from one human to another through direct contact or through contaminated food. When Nipah virus infects people, it can cause a range of illnesses in infected persons. These symptoms can range from asymptomatic infection to acute respiratory difficulties and encephalitis that can be fatal. This virus is also found to cause severe diseases in animals which would bring about big economic losses for those in farming. <br /><br />There have been only a few known Nipah virus outbreaks in Asia. However, the fact that this virus infects a wide range of animals and causes severe illnesses and deaths to humans is a matter of big concern.<br /><br /><strong><keyword id="6546549" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="nipah-virus-history">Nipah virus history</keyword></strong><br /><br />For the first time, Nipah virus was recognized in 1999 in pig farms located in Malaysia. Since 1999, there had not been other instances of Nipah virus outbreaks in Malaysia. <br /><br />In Bangladesh, Nipah virus was recognized for the first time in 2001. Since then, there had been annual occurrences of Nipah virus outbreaks in that country. Periodical outbreaks of Nipah virus has been noted in eastern India also. <br /><br />The bat species called as Pteropus have been identified as the natural reservoirs for Nipah virus. These species of bats are known to inhabit countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Ghana, Madagascar, and the Philippines. Hence these countries are said to be in the zones carrying a high risk of Nipah virus outbreaks.<br /><br /><strong>Nipah virus and domestic animals</strong><br /><br />In 1999, Nipah virus outbreak was noted in pigs and other domestic animals like sheep, goats, cats, dogs and horses. In the case of pigs, this virus is highly contagious. Pigs carrying Nipah virus are found to be highly infectious during the incubation period. This can last from 4 to 14 days. If pigs are noticed with unusual kind of barking cough or spotted with human cases of encephalitis, Nipah virus can be suspected. If this happens, serious measures must be taken to stop the spread of this deadly virus.<br /><br /><strong>Why is Nipah virus highly concerning?</strong><br /><br />The fatality rate of Nipah virus infection is found to be 40% to 75%. This rate can, however, differ depending on the capabilities of the medical facilities available locally to treat the affected patients. About 20% of the patients who get out of Nipah virus infections remain with residual neurological effects like personality changes and seizure complaints. <br /><br /><strong>How WHO respond to Nipah virus?</strong><br /><br />WHO has been taking several serious measures to stop the outbreak and spread of Nipah virus besides exploring ways to treat the Nipah virus affected people. <br /><br />WHO advice regarding the prevention of Nipah virus outbreak. There is a high risk of transmission of Nipah virus through the medium of fruits and fruit products like raw date palm juices contaminated with the saliva or urine of the infected fruit bats. This can be prevented by washing these products thoroughly before consumption. The other methods of preventing the Nipah virus spread is by peeling off these fruits and discarding the fruits that carry the signs of bat bites.<br />

What Is Nipah Virus, causes, history and everything you should know

WHO says Nipah virus can be a potential epidemic in future. The outbreak of Nipah virus recognized in Bangladesh in 2004 was said to be caused by consuming date palm sap that was exposed to Nipah virus infected fruit bats. Nipah virus outbreaks were noticed in Kerala in India, Bangladesh, Singapore, Malaysia, and eastern Australia. The recent death of three members in the Nipah virus affected family in Kerala made the Kerala State Health Department to put the state on high alert. The nature of Nipah virus has not been ascertained so far. <br /><br /><strong>Symptoms and signs of Nipah virus infection in humans</strong><br /><br />Human beings infected with Nipah virus can show up asymptomatic infection or acute respiratory infection ranging from mild to severe states in addition to encephalitis that can prove fatal. Some of the symptoms developed by persons infected with Nipah virus include headaches, fevers, muscle pain, sore throat and vomiting. They might also feel drowsiness, altered consciousness, and some neurological conditions like acute encephalitis or brain inflammation. In some affected individuals, Nipah virus can lead to severe kind of respiratory problems and acute respiratory distress.<br /><br />In some other serious cases of Nipah virus infection, the individuals might experience severe respiratory difficulties, atypical pneumonia, and seizures. Such conditions can also progress to the level of coma within a period of 24 to 48 hours. Convulsions and pulmonary signs can also be noticed in some infected persons. <br /><br />The incubation period of this virus is found to be between 4 to 14 days and in some cases, this can even drag on for as long as 45 days. <br /><br />The symptoms of Nipah virus are often confused with Japanese encephalitis. The outbreak of Nipah virus in Malaysia led to the death of more than 50% of the cases infected with Nipah virus. <br /><br /><strong>How to treat Nipah virus</strong><br /><br />As on date, there are no drugs or vaccines available with us to treat Nipah virus infection. In fact, the WHO has identified Nipah virus as a priority disease for their Research and Development. Severe cases of Nipah virus infections are to be treated to prevent severe respiratory disorders and neurological complications including seizures. <br /><br />Since the vaccine to treat this deadly virus is absent today, prevention is the best way to stop the infection and spread of Nipah virus. Appropriate detergents must be used for a thorough cleaning of the infected pigs if any instances of Nipah virus outbreak is noted in animals, the farm must be immediately quarantined. In order to reduce the risk of Nipah virus outbreak the WHO suggests culling of infected animals, burial or incineration of the carcasses such steps can minimize the risk of transmission of Nipah virus to people. <br /><br /><strong>Nipha virus Treatment</strong><br /><br />Treatment of Nipah virus is highly limited. Only supportive care can be given to the infected persons. There is no specific treatment plan available to the medical industry today. Extreme precautions are necessary for the healthcare workers dealing with Nipah virus infected persons and while handling the laboratory samples.<br />

All you need to know about Nipah Virus Symptoms and Treatment

<strong><br /></strong><ul><li><strong>The southern state of <keyword id="28504" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kerala">Kerala</keyword> has been hit by the <keyword id="6544034" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="nipah-virus">Nipah virus</keyword>.</strong></li><li><strong>There have been nine deaths in Kerala’s Kozhikode due to high fever, and at least three have been caused by the virus.<br /></strong></li><li><strong>The <keyword id="83655" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-health-ministry">Union Health Ministry</keyword> has sent a team to assist virus hit regions in Kerala.</strong></li></ul><keyword id="6545212" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="nipah">Nipah</keyword> is on the <keyword id="43588" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Health-Organization">World Health Organization</keyword>'s list of viruses most likely to cause a global pandemic. It's the virus that inspired the 2011 movie <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sYSyuuLk5g">Contagion</a>. And just this past January, governments and philanthropists <a href="http://cepi.net/cepi-officially-launched">pledged</a> hundreds of millions of dollars to develop a Nipah vaccine because it poses such a big threat.<br /><br />The Nipah virus, one of the most deadly viruses on the World Health Organization list, has hit Kerala. The state health department has confirmed three deaths to be caused by Nipah virus in Kerala’s Kozhikode. At least nine people in Kozhikode died due to high fever, says a <a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/kerala-9-die-due-to-high-fever-2-affected-with-nipah-virus-118052100239_1.html">report</a>. <br /><strong><br />What is Nipah virus? How does it spread? </strong><br /><br />The Nipah virus is carried by fruit <keyword id="92255" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bats">bats</keyword>, of the Pteropodidae family,<em> Pteropus genus</em>, and was first identified during an outbreak in Kampung Sungai Nipah in <keyword id="8695" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Malaysia">Malaysia</keyword> in 1998. The virus can cause diseases to human beings and animals. The disease can be transmitted both from animal-human and human-human contact.<br /><br />The virus can spread to humans through food contaminated by bat saliva or urine. India has had two reported outbreaks of Nipah virus, both the times in <keyword id="6357783" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="West-bengal">West Bengal</keyword>, once in 2001 and then in 2007. The total death toll during the outbreaks was fifty of the seventy-one reported cases. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the fatality rate of the virus is <a href="http://www.searo.who.int/entity/emerging_diseases/links/nipah_virus_outbreaks_sear/en/">75%</a> on an average.<br /><br /><strong>Symptoms of Nipah virus-affected patients:</strong><br /><br />After the exposure, the virus has an incubation period of 5-14 days. <br />Here are the symptoms of Nipah virus-affected patients: <br /><br /><ul><li>3-14 days of fever</li><li>Drowsiness</li><li>Disorientation and mental confusion</li><li>Respiratory illness</li></ul><strong>Long-term effects of Nipah virus on affected humans:</strong><br /><br /><ul><li>Inflammation of the brain</li><li>Nervous diseases</li><li>Persistent convulsions and personality changes.</li><li>Latent infection and reactivation of Nipah virus.</li></ul><strong><br />Prevention</strong><br /><br />The only way of prevention is to stay away from infected animals and not to eat fruits that have fallen to the ground as they might have been infected by the virus.<br /><br /><strong>Cure and Treatments<br /></strong><br />The virus, as of now, does not have a cure. The primary treatment for humans is intensive care.<br /><br /><strong>Nipah virus in Kerala<br /></strong><br />With the confirmation of Nipah virus outbreak in Kerala, and it leading to three deaths in Kozhikode, the Union Health Ministry has sent a team of experts to assist the state. In the past, the outbreaks were caused due to the disease transmission due to contacts from infected bats, pigs and people.<br /><br />Out of the three victims of Nipah virus, two are men and the third is a woman. The two men were brothers and the woman, a relative who visited them in hospital, said a report on <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-dead-from-mysterious-nipah-virus-in-kerala-centre-sends-team-10-points-1854897">NDTV</a>.<br /><br />People suspected to be affected by the virus are currently being monitored at the Kozhikode Medical College and a few other hospitals. <br />

A rare virus carried by fruit bats may have just started to spread in India

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Sukree Sukplang</span></p><p class="caption">Fruit bats are the natural hosts for the virus.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>At least nine people have reportedly died and 25 more have been infected in an outbreak of the Nipah virus in India. </strong></li><li><strong>Nipah is a deadly virus that can be transmitted between people. It has killed between 40% and 75% of infected people in past outbreaks.</strong></li><li><strong>Fruit bats are the natural host of the disease, and t</strong><strong>here is no cure or vaccine.</strong></li></ul><p><br />At least nine people in southern India have died in cases linked to an outbreak of the rare and extremely deadly Nipah virus, according to a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44193145">report by the BBC</a>.</p><p>Nipah is considered a newly emerging deadly virus - scientists only found out that it could jump from bats to other species, including humans, within the past 20 years. The disease is currently incurable and can be transmitted from person to person. It has killed between 40% and 75% of infected people in most outbreaks.</p><p>These statistics indicate that Nipah has the potential to cause a deadly pandemic, which is why the World Health Organization <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/disease-x-who-lists-mystery-disease-as-potential-next-pandemic-2018-3">lists Nipah as an urgent research priority</a>, alongside <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-warns-of-deadly-disease-pandemic-2018-5#disease-x-7">diseases like Ebola and SARS</a>.</p><p>Of the nine people who have died so far in the city of Kozhikode in Kerala, three cases of Nipah have been confirmed. Results from the other six are still being tested, and at least 25 more people have been hospitalized.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Rob Griffith</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>A little-known virus</h2><p>Nipah <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/disease/nipah/en/">first appeared in Malaysia</a> in 1998, when 265 people became infected with a strange illness that caused encephalitis, or brain inflammation, after they came into contact with pigs or sick people. In that outbreak, <a href="http://www.searo.who.int/entity/emerging_diseases/links/CDS_Nipah_Virus.pdf?ua=1">105 people died</a>, a fatality rate of 40%.</p><p>Since then, there have been a number of smaller outbreaks in India and Bangladesh, with about 280 infections and 211 deaths - <a href="http://www.searo.who.int/entity/emerging_diseases/links/nipah_virus_outbreaks_sear/en/">an average fatality rate</a> of 75%.</p><p>When the first infections jumped from pigs to humans, authorities killed more than a million pigs to try to stop the spread of the disease. Since then, however, researchers have identified several fruit bat species as the natural hosts of the virus. In some cases, humans have been infected after drinking sap from date palms that bats may have contaminated.</p><p>The BBC reported that in the most recent outbreak, mangoes bitten by bats were found in a home where three of the deceased patients lived.</p><p>Symptoms for Nipah have varied <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/nipah/symptoms/index.html">depending on the outbreak</a>. Many patients first experienced fever and headache, followed by drowsiness and confusion. Some patients have also shown respiratory flu-like symptoms while infected. In other cases, symptoms progressed to a coma within a day or two. </p><p>People who survive the initial infection can have lasting health issues, including personality changes and persistent convulsions. In some cases, the virus has re-activated in patients months or years after exposure, causing illness and death.</p><p>Close contact with sick animals or people can spread the disease - in the current outbreak, at least one of the deceased people was a nurse who treated sick patients. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/49/11/1743/344101">A study of Nipah virus transmission</a> suggested that infected patients' saliva is likely to spread the infection.</p><p>For now, the priority is to identify the remaining Nipah cases to ensure the disease doesn't continue to spread.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/octopus-weirdest-animals-rna-editing-super-powers-2018-5">Octopuses are officially the weirdest animals on Earth</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

A little-known, rare, and extremely deadly virus has emerged and killed people in India - here's what to know about Nipah virus

<strong>What Is Chamki Fever/Acute Encephalitis Syndrome<br /></strong><br />Chamki fever or encephalitis is an inflammatory condition of the brain resulting in a variety of associated symptoms. Acute Encephalitis Syndrome (AES) causes an acute-onset of fever associated with headache and most commonly reported in children and young adults. This illness brings about an alarming rate of morbidity and mortality. The recent outbreak of chamki fever in Bihar resulted in over 100 deaths in Muzaffarpur and its adjoining regions in the state of Bihar, India. Most notably, the similar outbreak of chamki fever resulted in about 700 deaths in 2014. Predominantly, chamki fever affects children and young adults in the age group of 1 to 10. The name chamki bukhar means fever condition associated with a seizure. Reports say that chamki fever or AES has spread in over 12 districts of Bihar including Muzaffarpur, Vaishali and East Champaran with Muzaffarpur declared as the worst hit zone. <br /><br /><strong>What is Chamki Fever or Acute Encephalitis Syndrome<br /></strong><br />Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) or chamki fever is a highly serious public health problem in India. It manifests as an acute onset of fever and a seriously affected mental condition resulting in confusion, disorientation, delirium, or coma. The affected individual may experience seizures. Chamki fever can happen in any age and at any time of the year. <br /><br />Muzaffarpur, Bihar and adjoining areas in Bihar are litchi producing districts. This disease mostly spreads far and wide in the months between April and June especially in children who are undernourished with a history of consuming litchis from the neighboring orchards.<br /><br /><strong>Causes of Chamki fever or Acute Encephalitis Syndrome<br /></strong><br />Viruses are said to be the main agents causing AES. However, other sources like bacteria, fungus, chemicals, parasites, spirochetes, toxins, and some noninfectious agents have also been noted to cause chamki fever as studied over the past few decades. <br /><br />Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is identified as the major cause of AES in India. The percentage of this agent ranges from 5-35 percent. Nipah virus and Zika virus are also said to be AES causing agents. In some cases. <br /><br />The other agents causing chamki fever include Influenza A virus, simplex virus, mumps, dengue, West Parvovirus B4, Nile virus, Epstein-Barr virus Chandipura virus, measles, enteroviruses, scrub typhus, and S pneumonia.<br /><br /><strong>Symptoms of chamki fever or Encephalitis<br /></strong><br />Some of the prominent and most common symptoms of chamki fever include High temperature, Headache, extreme sensitivity to light, stiff neck and back, nausea, and mental confusion. In severe cases of chamki fever, seizures and paralysis can result. <br /><br /><strong>Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV)<br /></strong><br />As discussed so far, JEV is identified as the major cause of AES in India. This virus is spread by mosquitos and it is a kind of flavivirus. This virus belongs to the same genus like dengue, yellow fever, and West Nile viruses. <br /><br />So far no cure has been discovered for chamki fever. The treatment available now focuses mainly on relieving the severe clinical symptoms found in the affected persons and supporting the patients to overcome the infective condition. <br /><br /><strong>Treatment for chamki fever or Encephalitis<br /></strong><br />The affected persons must be treated immediately to avoid severe complications. The patients must be admitted to the Intensive Care unit or ICU to prevent any kinds of major mishaps.<br /><br />Chamki fever can be treated with anti-inflammatory drugs including Acetaminophen, Ibuprofen and Naproxen Sodium which can bring down the temperature and headache.<br /><br />Majority of cases reported with chamki fever can get resolved in a matter of a few days. However, some severe cases can take about a few weeks to recover.<br />

What Is Acute Encephalitis Syndrome (Chamki Fever) - All you need to know

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The idea the <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-cdc-director-redfield-coronavirus-leak-wuhan-lab-2021-3">leaked from a lab</a> hasn't been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lab-leak-viable-theory-coronavirus-origin-scientists-say-2021-5">disproved</a>, though a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-investigation-concludes-coronavirus-did-not-leak-wuhan-lab-2021-2">WHO report</a> said it was unlikely.</li><li>The virus probably jumped to people from <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-coronavirus-likely-jumped-animals-wildlife-farms-2021-3">animals</a>. Biden gave US officials <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-administration-officials-call-probe-coronavirus-origins-2021-5">90 days</a> to assess both ideas.</li><li>Here's a breakdown of the evidence in favor of a lab leak and a natural spillover from animals.</li></ul><p>It's the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/theory-coronavirus-accidentally-leaked-chinese-lab-2020-4">theory</a> that refuses to die: Might the coronavirus have leaked out of a Chinese lab?</p><p>As long as the mystery of the pandemic's origin remains unsolved, the question will persist. Increasingly, global leaders are calling for more thorough investigations into the possibility.</p><p>That group includes President <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-administration-officials-call-probe-coronavirus-origins-2021-5">Joe Biden</a>, Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-wuhan-scientists-initially-worried-coronavirus-leaked-lab-2021-3">Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus</a>, the director-general of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-investigation-concludes-coronavirus-did-not-leak-wuhan-lab-2021-2">World Health Organization</a>.</p><p>Though a month-long WHO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-investigation-concludes-coronavirus-did-not-leak-wuhan-lab-2021-2">investigation</a> in the city of Wuhan concluded that the coronavirus most likely spilled over to people from animals - possibly at <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-coronavirus-likely-jumped-animals-wildlife-farms-2021-3">wildlife farms</a> - the group found no definitive proof of that. Nor could it rule out a lab leak. </p><p>So Tedros said in March that he did "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-wuhan-scientists-initially-worried-coronavirus-leaked-lab-2021-3">not believe that this assessment was extensive enough</a>."</p><p>Fauci, meanwhile, said <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/dr-fauci-cdc-director-testify-before-senate-on-covid-19-guidelines-transcript">during a Senate hearing</a> this month that the "possibility certainly exists" that the pandemic started because of a lab accident. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/24/gottlieb-says-theres-growing-circumstantial-evidence-that-covid-may-have-originated-in-a-lab.html">Scott Gottlieb</a>, the former head of the Food and Drug Administration, has also said there is some circumstantial evidence favoring a lab leak, as has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-cdc-director-redfield-coronavirus-leak-wuhan-lab-2021-3">Robert Redfield</a>, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.</p><p>In a Wednesday press conference, Biden gave the US intelligence community <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-administration-officials-call-probe-coronavirus-origins-2021-5">90 days</a> to collect and analyze evidence supporting each of the two scenarios, in the hopes of reaching a "definitive conclusion" on the coronavirus' origin.</p><p>Here's what to know about each theory - a lab leak and a natural spillover from animals - and the key pieces of evidence supporting each.</p><h2>The lab-leak hypothesis</h2><p>Eighteen scientists from the US, the UK, Canada, and Switzerland recently <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lab-leak-viable-theory-coronavirus-origin-scientists-say-2021-5">published a letter</a> saying they thought the lab-leak theory remained viable.</p><p>Questions about a such a leak generally center on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-coronavirus-did-not-leak-from-wuhan-lab-researcher-2020-4">the Wuhan Institute of Virology</a>, a high-level biosafety lab where some scientists had been studying coronaviruses before the pandemic. Wuhan, of course, is the city where authorities reported the first known cluster of <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> cases. Below are the main reasons people think the virus might have emerged from the lab.</p><div type="image" title="wuhan institute of virology" height="2250" width="4000" msid="82974392" hostid="261"></div><h3>The <keyword id="8671082" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="wuhan-institute-of-virology">Wuhan Institute of Virology</keyword> was researching coronaviruses before the pandemic</h3><p>Scientists at the WIV research infectious diseases - collecting, storing, and genetically analyzing samples of the most dangerous and infectious pathogens known to humankind. The institute boasts a biosafety level 4 lab, one of only a few dozen in the world.</p><p>Peter Ben Embarek, a WHO scientist specializing in animal disease, was part of the team that investigated the institute in January. He said it's natural to speculate about a link - especially given that the WIV moved to a new location in early December 2019, which happens to be just miles from the Huanan Seafood Market.</p><p>The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Wuhan was linked to the market, but it turned out to simply have hosted an early superspreader event.</p><p>"Even the staff in these labs told us that was their first reaction when they heard about this new emerging disease, this coronavirus: 'This is something coming out of our labs,'" Ben Embarek said in March.</p><p>But after investigating that possibility, the WIV staff said they found no evidence that samples of the new coronavirus had been stored at the institute prior to December 2019. Records reviewed by WHO did not indicate that any viruses closely related to the new coronavirus were kept in any Chinese lab before that month. The records also did not show any viruses that, when combined, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9?utm_medium=affiliate&amp;utm_source=commission_junction&amp;utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100024934&amp;utm_content=deeplinkent=deeplink">could have produced the new coronavirus</a>.</p><p>But Ben Embarek's team also said it wasn't given full access to the Wuhan institute's data.</p><h3>WHO investigators couldn't conduct a full audit of the labs</h3><div type="image" title="wuhan institute of virology WHO" height="3628" width="4838" msid="82974397" hostid="261"></div><p>Ben Embarek said he and his fellow investigators didn't do a full audit of the WIV. The WHO team spent just hours at the institute - which isn't enough time to pore over files, databases, or freezer inventories. The institute's staff also did not share all of its records or safety logs.</p><p>That's why Tedros, Fauci, and many others are still calling for a full investigation of the lab.</p><p>However, Jonna Mazet, an epidemiologist at the University of California at Davis, has worked directly with WIV researchers, including one of its prominent virologists, Shi Zhengli. Mazet told Insider the lab's records were above reproach.</p><p>"She is absolutely positive that she had never identified this virus prior to the outbreak happening," Mazet <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-coronavirus-did-not-leak-from-wuhan-lab-researcher-2020-4">told Insider</a>, referring to Shi's work.</p><h3>WIV staff members got sick with 'COVID-like' symptoms in November 2019</h3><p>A report <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228?mod=hp_lead_pos7">uncovered by The Wall Street Journal</a> revealed that three WIV staff members got sick and went to a hospital more than a month before experts identified the first COVID-19 cases in Wuhan. The report - which an intelligence official said lacked sufficient corroboration - said the workers' symptoms were "consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illness."</p><p>According to the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/who-team-scientist-wuhan-lab-workers-fell-sick-in-2019-104497733806">virologist Marion Koopmans</a>, WHO team was aware that some WIV staff had gotten sick in the fall of 2019. They'd chalked the incidents up to season illness because blood samples taken from WIV staff in the months ahead of the pandemic all tested negative for coronavirus antibodies. (Such samples are taken routinely from biosafety lab workers to monitor their <keyword id="6354750" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="health">health</keyword>.)</p><h3>The coronavirus is easily transmissible among humans</h3><p>Generally, it takes time for a new virus to adapt to be able to spread easily from person to person.</p><p>So people like Redfield point to the coronavirus' highly infectious nature as evidence it may be a product of "gain-of-function" research. In this kind of work, scientists tweak viruses with the goal of making the pathogens more transmissible or deadlier to figure out how to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4996883/">stop future pandemics</a>.</p><p>"I do not believe that this somehow came from a bat to a human, and at that moment in time that the virus came to the human became one of the most infectious viruses that we know in humanity for human-to-human transmission," Redfield <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-cdc-director-redfield-coronavirus-leak-wuhan-lab-2021-3">told CNN</a> in March.</p><p>But <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6vku1PzLd0">Fauci said that same month</a> that it's more likely that the coronavirus got good at jumping between people while spreading "below the radar" in China in late 2019. Growing evidence suggests COVID-19 was spreading for several weeks, if not months, before the first cases were reported.</p><p>That allowed the virus "to be pretty well adapted when first recognized," Fauci said.</p><h3>Lab leaks happen, and US intelligence suggested the WIV had poor safety protocol</h3><div type="image" title="covid researchers wuhan" height="3809" width="5663" msid="82974400" hostid="261"></div><p>Three years ago, US officials visiting Wuhan sent <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/">a pair of memos</a> to the State Department warning of inadequate safety measures at the lab. The institute seems to have made rigorous changes since then, though, and the WHO team was satisfied with the lab's protocols.</p><p>Ben Embarek said the WIV housed a "state-of-the-art lab," which is part of the reason his team thinks it's "very unlikely that anything could escape from such a place."</p><p>Mazet, too, has said it's "highly unlikely this was a lab accident," since she worked with WIV staff to develop and implement a "very stringent safety protocol."</p><p>Still, Ben Embarek noted in February that "accidents do happen."</p><p>"We have many examples in many countries in the world of past accidents," he said.</p><p>Though such accidents are rare, there have been <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC416634/">four instances</a> in which SARS has leaked from laboratories in Taiwan, Singapore, and Beijing.</p><h3>The wildlife farms where the virus might have emerged are 1,000 miles from Wuhan</h3><div type="image" title="wuhan huanan market" height="2333" width="3500" msid="82974404" hostid="261"></div><p>The wildlife farms where the WHO team thinks the coronavirus most likely emerged are <a href="https://ca.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-likely-traveled-800-miles-234039700.html">800 to 1,000 miles</a> from Wuhan.</p><p>But Koopmans said the WHO team found that rabbits and ferret-badgers sold at Huanan Seafood Market were transported there from regions in China where bats harbor viruses similar to the new coronavirus. Both rabbits and ferret-badgers are susceptible to coronavirus infection, so could have passed it to farmers who traveled into the city, or to market shoppers.</p><p>Still, just because the first reported cluster of cases emerged in Wuhan doesn't mean that's where the pandemic truly began. Wuhan is the largest city in Hubei province, and people from all over central China travel though the region. Once the virus arrived in a dense, urban environment, it makes sense it would spread rapidly there.</p><h2>The animal-spillover theory</h2><p>After the investigation in Wuhan, the WHO team determined the coronavirus "most likely" jumped from bats to people via an intermediary animal host at a wildlife farm. This kind of spillover has been the leading theory throughout the pandemic primarily because 75% of new infectious diseases come to us from animals. Plus, the coronavirus' genetic code is very similar to that of other coronaviruses found circulating in bats. Here's the evidence supporting this idea.</p><div type="image" title="WHO wuhan" height="2645" width="3968" msid="82974409" hostid="261"></div><h3>The WHO concluded that an animal-to-human hop is 'most likely'</h3><p>In southern China, the WHO found, people interacted closely with animals like civets, minks, pangolins, rabbits, and raccoon dogs at farms where these animals were bred in captivity for food.</p><p>All of these species can be infected by the new coronavirus, and any contact with an infected animal or its poop can allow a virus to jump from animals to people. That's why the WHO found this to be the "most likely" origin of the pandemic. Still, the team examined 80,000 animals from 31 provinces across China and didn't find a single case of the coronavirus. China shut down the specific wildlife farms in question in February 2020, and the WHO researchers <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/25/china/covid-china-who-probe-intl-hnk/index.html">weren't given access</a> to samples from animals from these farms.</p><p>Plus, according to Tedros, the WHO experts had <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-wuhan-scientists-initially-worried-coronavirus-leaked-lab-2021-3">difficulties accessing COVID-19 infection data</a> and patient blood samples from in and around Wuhan - which could also cast doubt on the team's conclusions.</p><p>The scientists behind the recent <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lab-leak-viable-theory-coronavirus-origin-scientists-say-2021-5">letter</a> about the lab-leak theory wrote that in the WHO's report, that possibility was "not given balanced consideration." Only four of the report's <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/who-convened-global-study-of-origins-of-sars-cov-2-china-part">313 pages</a> discuss evidence of a lab accident.</p><h3>SARS-CoV-2 shares 97% of its genetic code with other coronaviruses found in bats</h3><div type="image" title="horseshoe bat" height="2323" width="3437" msid="82974412" hostid="261"></div><p>Bats are common virus reservoirs. Cross-species hops from bat populations also led to the outbreaks of Ebola, SARS, and the Nipah virus.</p><p>A wealth of evidence shows similarities between the new coronavirus and coronaviruses in bat populations. A <a href="https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(20)30662-X">May 2020 study</a>, for example, revealed that the new coronavirus shared 97.1% of its genetic code with a coronavirus called RmYN02, which was found in bats in China's Yunnan province between May and October 2019. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7">A paper</a> in the journal Nature, published by Shi's group at the WIV, found that a coronavirus named RaTG13 was a 96.2% match.</p><p>RaTG13, it turns out, is the same virus that Shi and her WIV colleagues collected samples of nearly a decade ago in a remote mine. Six miners got a mysterious pneumonia-like illness there in 2012, and three of them died, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-lab-leak-question-chinese-mine-covid-pandemic-11621871125?mod=hp_lead_pos5">according to The Wall Street Journal</a>. Blood samples from the miners didn't test positive for the new coronavirus, however.</p><p>When Shi and coauthors published their genetic analysis of RaTG13 last year, they <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-lab-leak-question-chinese-mine-covid-pandemic-11621871125?mod=hp_lead_pos5">did not disclose its link</a> to the miners' deaths.</p><h3>Three-quarters of infectious diseases come from natural spillover</h3><div type="image" title="china rabbit farm" height="3560" width="5266" msid="82974415" hostid="261"></div><p>Three out of every four <a href="https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/infectious-diseases-conditions/world-zoonoses-day-most-emerging-infectious-diseases-originate">emerging infectious diseases</a> come to us from other species; these pathogens are known as zoonotic diseases.</p><p>Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist with EcoHealth Alliance who was a member of the WHO investigation team, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/23/841729646/virus-researchers-cast-doubt-on-theory-of-coronavirus-lab-accident">told NPR in April 2020</a> that "1 to 7 million people" were exposed to zoonotic viruses in Southeast Asia each year.</p><p>"That's the pathway," he said. "It's just so obvious to all of us working in the field."</p><p>Daszak and the EcoHealth Alliance have worked with and funded WIV research in the past, though that funding was canceled last year. Some people suggest Daszek has a bias against the lab-leak theory, since it could lead his organization to be seen as <a href="https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038">culpable</a> for funding research that led to the pandemic.</p><p>Still, spillover events have doubled - if not tripled - in the past 40 years, according to Dennis Carroll, the former director of USAID's emerging-threats division. That's because people are increasingly turning wild areas into farms and fields for livestock production.</p><p>"Whatever future threats we're going to face already exist - they are currently circulating in wildlife," Carroll <a href="http://nautil.us/issue/83/intelligence/the-man-who-saw-the-pandemic-coming">told Nautilus Magazine</a> last year.</p>

A lab leak in Wuhan versus a natural hop from bats: Evidence for each theory of the coronavirus pandemic's origin

By Yoshita Singh <p>United Nations, Jul 7 () Global outbreaks like COVID-19 will become more common and increasingly prevalent if countries do not take effective steps to curb zoonotic diseases that pass from animals to humans, a report by the UN has said. </p><p>The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) on Monday launched the report- 'Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission'. </p><p>"People look back to the influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 and think that such disease outbreaks only happen once in a century," head of scientific assessments at UNEP Maarten Kappelle said. </p><p>"But that's no longer true. If we don't restore the balance between the natural world and the human one, these outbreaks will become increasingly prevalent," he said. </p><p>UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said that as nations seek to build back better after COVID-19, "we need to fully understand the transmission of zoonoses, the threats they pose to human health and how to minimise the risk of further devastating outbreaks. </p><p>"COVID-19 is one of the worst zoonotic diseases, but it is not the first. Ebola, SARS, MERS, HIV, Lyme disease, Rift Valley fever and Lassa fever preceded it. In the last century we have seen at least six major outbreaks of novel coronaviruses," she said. </p><p>Zoonotic diseases are infections that jump between animals and humans, some of which have led to severe illnesses and deaths. </p><p>The coronavirus outbreak has so far claimed 500,000 lives globally. It originated from a wildlife food market in China's Wuhan city. </p><p>The Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) or bird flu in 1996, Nipah virus infection in 1998, Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and the Swine acute diarrhoea syndrome (SADS) in 2016 all emerged in Guangdong, China, the report's data said. </p><p>She said nations need to invest in ending the over-exploitation of wildlife and other natural resources, farming sustainably, reversing land degradation and protecting ecosystem health. </p><p>"We were warned that the current pandemic was a matter of if, not when. It is a human failing that we predict but not prepare. Now we must become more proactive to avoid another pandemic and address endemic zoonotic diseases. </p><p>This means recognising that human health, animal health and planetary health cannot be separated, and planning our responses accordingly," she said. </p><p>The report said that 60 per cent of the 1,400 microbes known to infect humans originated in animals. </p><p>It also noted that apart from contagions like COVID-19, neglected zoonotic diseases such as anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, rabies and Japanese encephalitis kill at least two million people every year, mostly in developing countries, which have communities with complex development problems, high dependence on livestock and proximity to wildlife. </p><p>Zoonotic diseases have plagued societies since Neolithic times and were responsible for some of history's deadliest pandemics, including the bubonic plague of the late Middle Ages and the influenza pandemic of the early twentieth century. </p><p>UNEP noted that as the world's population edges towards 8 billion, rampant development is putting humans and animals in increasingly close quarters, making it easier for diseases to vault between species. </p><p>Andersen added that growth in humanity and its activity is largely to blame for increasing frequency of zoonotic diseases. </p><p>She said meat production has increased by 260 per cent in 50 years, agriculture has intensified, infrastructure expanded and resources extracted at the expense of wild spaces. Dams, irrigation and factory farms are linked to 25 per cent of infectious diseases in humans. Travel, transport and food supply chains have erased borders and distances. Climate change has contributed to the spread of pathogens. </p><p>"The end result is that people and animals, with the diseases they carry, are closer than ever," she said. </p><p>Eric Fèvre, a professor of veterinary infectious diseases at the University of Liverpool and a jointly appointed ILRI researcher said, "as we exploit more marginal areas, we are creating opportunities for transmission. There is an increasing risk of seeing bigger epidemics and, eventually, a pandemic of the COVID-19 type as our footprint on the world expands." </p><p>The report also noted that cost of zoonotic epidemics is steep. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that COVID-19 alone will cause the global economy to contract by 3 per cent this year, wiping out USD 9 trillion in productivity through 2021. But even in the two decades before the pandemic, the World Bank estimated that zoonotic diseases had direct costs of more than USD 100 billion. </p><p>In order to prevent future outbreaks, countries need a coordinated, science-backed response to emerging zoonotic diseases, says Delia Grace, lead author of the report as well as a veterinary epidemiologist at ILRI and professor of food safety at the UK's Natural Resources Institute. </p><p>UNEP and ILRI are urging governments to embrace an inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary approach called One Health. It calls on states not only to buttress their animal as well as human healthcare systems, but also to address factors - like environmental degradation and increased demand for meat – that make it easier for diseases to jump species. </p>Co-author of the assessment and UNEP's Chief of Wildlife Doreen Robinson says it's also important for governments to better understand how zoonotic diseases work. That could help the world avoid another pandemic on the scale of COVID-19. YAS RS AKJ RS RS

Zoonotic diseases need to be curbed to prevent outbreaks like COVID-19: UN

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Paul Hackett/Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>In partnership with several world leaders, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has launched a coalition to prevent pandemics through the development of new vaccines.</p><p>The <a href="http://cepi.net/">Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations</a> (CEPI) was announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 18.</p><p>Governments from Germany, Japan, and Norway have pooled funds along with the Gates Foundation to raise a total of $490 million so far. The target is $1 billion, which CEPI says will help finance the first five years of research and development.</p><p>"Ebola and Zika showed that the world is tragically unprepared to detect local outbreaks and respond quickly enough to prevent them from becoming global pandemics," Bill Gates said in a statement. "Without investments in research and development, we will remain unequipped when we face the next threat."</p><p>Between 2014 and the end of 2016, when Ebola and Zika outbreaks hit their peak, cases rose into the hundreds of thousands. Roughly half of all Ebola cases in West Africa - or some <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html">286,000 diagnoses</a>, according to the CDC - led to death. They were concentrated primarily in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia.</p><p>The first viruses CEPI will target are MERS-CoV, Lassa, and Nipah viruses. The coalition will seek to develop two vaccines for each virus, which emergency responders can administer in the event of an outbreak. It'll also look to defend against new strains of Ebola and Zika should they crop up.</p><p>CEPI has called on other world leaders for support in raising the remaining $510 million. As the coalition gathers momentum, Gates suspects the added brainpower will also lead to faster innovation.</p><p>"CEPI is a great example of how supporting innovation and R&amp;D can help the world to address some of its most pressing health challenges," he said.</p><p>One of the greatest challenges public-health agencies face is recognizing an outbreak of infectious disease and containing its spread.</p><p>With certain viruses that tend to be a bit milder, such as the flu virus, agencies<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/summary.htm"> can look at data</a> from doctor and hospital visits to know where the virus has spread. Vaccines also work to prevent that spread from ever taking place. With deadlier viruses, ones for which there are no vaccines, the spread can lead to death long before experts know where it's headed and who's most at-risk.</p><p>One of CEPI's major long-term goals is to reduce the chance a group could miss an outbreak or fail to stop a spread within a reasonable amount of time.</p><p>"For new vaccines to be game changers, they must be developed and tested before outbreaks hit and made accessible and affordable for all communities in times of health crisis," Dr. Joanne Liu, International President of Doctors Without Borders, said in a statement. "These are the conditions that will determine CEPI's success and ensure this new initiative saves lives."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-sachs-anti-vaccine-fatal-flaw-vaxxers-california-2015-6">Watch Jeff Sachs destroy the anti-vaccine movement in under two minutes</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="hxODJ2dTpawTVla74Re0bzweFZzZsXIe" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Bill Gates is teaming up with world leaders to stop the next deadly pandemic

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security</span></p><p class="caption">The executive committee to advice the President meets to discuss Clade X.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>The Clade X simulation, created by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, shows how vulnerable the world is to the spread of a pandemic virus.</strong></li><li><strong>In that simulation, political experts from the US tried to figure out how to respond to the emergence of a new and deadly disease.</strong></li><li><strong>Despite being a "moderately contagious" and "moderately lethal" virus, at the end of the day - 20 months in simulated time - the virus would have killed 150 million people.</strong></li><li><strong>According to the scenario's creator, if efforts to create a vaccine continued to fail, a disease like that could kill 900 million, or more than 10% of the global population.</strong></li></ul><p><br />The committee to advise the President first met approximately one month after the virus first appeared.</p><p>There had been more than 400 cases and 50 deaths so far, mostly split between Frankfurt, Germany, and Caracas, Venezuela.</p><p>Patients presented with fever, cough, and confusion. In a disturbing number of cases, encephalitis - swelling in the brain - caused patients to fall into a potentially fatal coma.</p><p>Researchers had been able to isolate what appeared to be a new pathogen, a disease-causing agent.</p><p>The virus seemed to be a new type of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/parainfluenza/index.html">parainfluenza virus</a> from a family of respiratory viruses that normally cause mild illnesses like the cold. Scientists studying the disease couldn't identify where the virus fit in the parainfluenza family, so they referred to the pathogen as parainfluenza Clade X.</p><p>Health authorities said Clade X, which appeared to spread by coughing and to take up to a week before patients started showing severe symptoms, had pandemic potential.</p><p>This situation described here is fictional.</p><p>It's part of a scenario created by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, designed to see how real policy experts and government decisionmakers would respond to a similar situation.</p><p>The scenario was designed to be completely realistic, with a disease that could plausibly exist and a world that has the exact same resources to respond as we do now.</p><p>On May 15th, when the <a href="http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/index.html">"Clade X" simulation</a> was played out real-time, the people acting out the scenario were the sorts of individuals who'd be responding to this situation in real life. The <a href="http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/players/index.html">players included</a> former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, Indiana Representative Susan Brooks (R), former CDC Director Julie Gerberding, and others with extensive experience.</p><p>Yet by the day's end, representing 20 months after the start of the outbreak, there were 150 million dead around the globe, and 15 to 20 million deaths in the US alone. With no vaccine for the illness yet ready, that death toll would have been expected to climb.</p><p>"I think we learned that even very knowledgeable, experienced, devoted senior public officials who have lived through many crises still have trouble dealing with something like this," Dr. Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Global Health Security and the designer of the Clade X simulation, told Business Insider. "And it's not because they are not good or smart or dedicated, it's because we don't have the systems we need to enable the kind of response we'd want to see."</p><p>If efforts to develop a vaccine continued to fail, Toner said a disease like this could kill 900 million people, or more than 10% of the world's population.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security</span></p><p class="caption">Participants debate solutions to Clade X, a bioengineered virus.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>We've been lucky in the past</h2><p>A virus capable of wiping out more than 10% of the world might sound like it would need to be one of the most fatal, contagious diseases ever - as easy to catch as <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/transmission.html">measles</a>, which spreads to 90% of the non-vaccinated people near an infected person, but as fatal as Ebola.</p><p>This is not the case, according to Toner, who spent a year creating the simulation.</p><p>The Clade X virus that Toner and colleagues used in the simulation was only moderately contagious and moderately lethal. It spread as easily and was about as deadly as SARS, which infected more than 8,000 between 2002 and 2003, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zika-birth-defects-show-threats-of-emerging-viruses-2016-7">killing about 10% of those infected</a>.</p><p>The world was lucky SARS wasn't worse. That virus wasn't particularly contagious until people were already very sick. As a result, it spread more in healthcare settings, once patients had landed in clinics and hospitals. That limited the spread of SARS in broader public spaces.</p><p>There's also evidence it mutated to become less virulent. SARS was stopped, but there was "a great deal of luck involved," according to Toner.</p><p>With Clade X, which theoretically would spread relatively fast in community settings (like SARS did in healthcare facilities), the world would not be as lucky.</p><p>"We think this scenario is quite plausible," said Toner.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Coronaviruses like SARS and MERS, shown here, have pandemic potential.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>'We don't want to provide a recipe for how to do this'</h2><p>Shortly after the committee to advise the President met to discuss how to respond to Clade X, the first case appeared in the US, at a university in Massachusetts.</p><p>New information about the pathogen emerged. Despite being a parainfluenza virus, Clade X also had genetic elements of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nipah-virus-outbreak-deaths-in-india-2018-5">Nipah virus, a rare but extremely lethal virus</a> that the World Health Organization considers an urgent research priority because of its potential to cause a pandemic.</p><p>In the simulation, the virus was bioengineered and released by a group known as A Brighter Dawn, with the intention of reducing the world's population back to pre-industrial levels. The group was largely modeled after the cult Aum Shinrikyo, which released the chemical weapon sarin on the Tokyo subway in 1995.</p><p>Before the sarin attack, Aum Shinrikyo reportedly tried to <a href="http://files.cnas.org.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/CNAS_AumShinrikyo_Danzig_1.pdf">develop biological weapons</a>. Advances in the field of synthetic biology make the production of deadly biological weapons a far simpler procedure today than when Aum Shinrikyo carried out attacks, to the point that many <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-risk-to-humanity-2017-9">experts believe weaponized disease</a> may be the biggest threat humanity now faces.</p><p>Toner said researchers are convinced a virus like the one released by A Brighter Dawn could be created and released. But he said the simulation designers will not reveal exactly how they determined this disease would be designed.</p><p>"We don't want to provide a recipe for how to do this," he said.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Shutterstock/Tonhom1009</span></p><p class="caption">Creating a deadly virus using synthetic biology is less complicated than it used to be.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>Dark Winter, Atlantic Storm, and the lessons learned</h2><p>The Center for Health Security has run two other major simulations before Clade X.</p><p>In June of 2001, a similar group of policy experts played the <a href="http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2001_dark-winter/about.html">Dark Winter</a> scenario, in which a terrorist group released smallpox at shopping malls in the US  - still a scary enough potential scenario that the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fda-approves-smallpox-drug-for-bioterrorism-2018-7">FDA for the first time this month approved a drug</a> to treat smallpox in case of an attack. An analysis of that exercise suggested that if the outbreak couldn't be stopped using vaccines within two months, the devastating illness could have infected 3 million and killed one million.</p><p>"People were just beginning to think of bioterrorism as a threat" at the time, said Toner. Not long after, the 9/11 attacks and <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/amerithrax-or-anthrax-investigation">anthrax letters</a> would convince the world that the threat of terrorism was of far greater concern.</p><p>In 2005, in the <a href="http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2005_atlantic_storm/">Atlantic Storm</a> exercise, political leaders played through another smallpox release scenario. By then, governments around the world had stockpiled smallpox vaccines. But as the health experts <a href="http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2005_atlantic_storm/flash/index.html">behind the scenario</a> explained after, a smallpox outbreak in a world with vaccines is not a worst-case scenario - other pandemics, naturally occurring or created, could be even more dangerous. Clade X reflects that.</p><p>Though Clade X involved a bioengineered virus, Toner said the response required wasn't necessarily different from what we'd need to deal with a naturally-emergent pathogen. A virus like Clade X could just as easily emerge naturally - if SARS had been just slightly different, it might even have been that virus.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>John Moore/Getty</span></p><p class="caption">Ebola also helped show how unprepared the world is for dealing with rapidly spreading diseases.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>We aren't ready for what's coming</h2><p>A deadly disease with the potential to cause widespread loss of life around the world is coming. Whether it's manufactured or jumps to humans after spreading in animal species, that's considered a fact by infectious disease and bioterror experts.  </p><p>George Poste, an ex officio member of the Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense, a group created to assess the state of biodefense in the US, previously told Business Insider it was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pandemic-risk-to-humanity-2017-9">inevitable that a disease as deadly as the 1918 flu pandemic</a> that killed 50 million people would emerge again. </p><p>At a recent talk, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-warns-the-next-pandemic-disease-is-coming-2018-4">Bill Gates warned</a> that we're not prepared.</p><p>"In the case of biological threats, that sense of urgency is lacking," he said. "The world needs to prepare for pandemics in the same serious way it prepares for war."</p><p>Toner said the Clade X scenario highlighted many of the shortcomings in our global healthcare system.</p><p>"We don't have the ability to produce vaccines to a novel pathogen within months rather than decades and we don't have the global public health capabilities that would allow us to rapidly identify and control an outbreak before it becomes a pandemic," he said.</p><p>He also said that the health systems in the US and around the world aren't ready for the rapid surge in cases they'd see in the case of pandemic disease spread.</p><p>A pandemic could cause hospital systems to collapse under the pressure. Most people don't know how close we came to having that happen in the US in 2009, he said, due to a not particularly virulent flu strain.</p><p>We also don't have systems in place to deal with the overlap between healthcare, foreign policy, and national security.</p><p>"It will happen, but I don't know when," Toner said. Whenever it does, we have to hope that we'll be more prepared than we are now.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/lunar-eclipse-why-moon-is-blood-red-2018-7">Why the moon turns red during a total lunar eclipse</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

A leading medical institution created a simulation that shows how a new disease could kill 900 million people&#160;- and it reveals how unprepared we are

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A leading medical institution created a simulation that shows how a new disease could kill 900 million people - and it reveals how unprepared we are