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<keyword id="20779198" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chief-Economic-Advisor" source="keywords">Chief Economic Advisor</keyword> V Anantha Nageswaran emphasized the crucial and positive role that artificial intelligence (<keyword id="19899640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AI" source="keywords">AI</keyword>) can play for the <keyword id="22505095" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-demography" source="keywords">Indian demography</keyword> and <keyword id="20278114" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="labour-force" source="keywords">labour force</keyword> during a press conference on the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24. He noted that within the next decade, India is poised to become the world's third-largest economy and will benefit significantly from its demographic dividend. However, Nageswaran also acknowledged potential challenges posed by AI, particularly for India's <keyword id="20811086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="business-process-outsourcing" source="keywords">Business Process Outsourcing</keyword> (BPO) sector. He stated, "The short-term challenge of generative AI could slow <keyword id="22505093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPO-sector-growth" source="keywords">BPO sector growth</keyword>, affecting <keyword id="21300718" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="customer-services" source="keywords">customer services</keyword>. It is possible that the jobs related to BPO will be under threat whereas AI may actually turn out to be a booster." Furthermore, Nageswaran also pointed out that the emergence of AI might reduce annual <keyword id="21420133" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="productivity-growth" source="keywords">productivity growth</keyword> by approximately 0.3 percentage points in the coming years. This indicates a potential short-term dip in productivity as industries adapt to new technologies. Despite these challenges, Nageswaran added that the long-term potential of AI is promising. The broader adoption of AI could lead to significant improvements in critical areas such as healthcare and education, thereby enhancing human capital. The economic survey presented in the Parliament by finance minister Nirmala Sithraman says in the medium term Indian economy can grow at a rate of 7 per cent. The economic survey stated, "In the medium term, the Indian economy can grow at a rate of 7 per cent plus on a sustained basis if we build on the structural reforms undertaken over the last decade. This requires a tripartite compact between the Union Government, State Governments and the private sector." Achieving a sustained growth rate of over 7 per cent will require a tripartite compact between the Union Government, State Governments, and the private sector. India's financial sector is undergoing critical transformations. During FY24, primary capital markets facilitated capital formation of Rs 10.9 lakh crore, accounting for approximately 29 per cent of the gross fixed capital formation of private and public corporates in FY23. It further adds India faces a unique blend of opportunities and challenges amid global trends such as geo-economic fragmentation, a push for self-reliance, looming climate change, the rise of technology, and limited policy space. (ANI)

AI could slow BPO sector growth: Chief Economic Advisor Nageshwaran

Capital markets regulator <keyword id="20378396" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sebi-Chief" source="keywords">SEBI Chief</keyword> <keyword id="19922107" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="madhabi-puri-buch" source="keywords">Madhabi Puri Buch</keyword> on Monday refrained from commenting on the investment vehicle, <keyword id="20024284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-investment-trusts" source="keywords">Real Estate Investment Trusts</keyword> (REITs), saying if she comments on the subject, she will be accused of <keyword id="20339010" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="conflict-of-interest" source="keywords">conflict of interest</keyword>. The remarks came as US short-seller <keyword id="20016892" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindenburg-Research" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Hindenburg Research" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Hindenburg Research">Hindenburg Research</keyword> raised questions about a potential conflict of interest involving Buch and private equity major <keyword id="20144468" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Blackstone" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Blackstone" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Blackstone">Blackstone</keyword>. Her husband Dhaval Buch is a senior advisor with Blackstone, a major player in the <keyword id="20009947" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="REIT" source="keywords">REIT</keyword> space. However, the couple refuted the allegations. Also, Hindenburg alleged that SEBI's recent amendments to REIT regulations 2014 favoured a specific financial conglomerate, which the markets regulator denied. Speaking at an event organised by industry body CII, Buch said," If I utter the word REITs, I am accused of conflict of interest". REITs are a new concept in the Indian market but have been a popular choice globally for their lucrative returns and capital appreciation. A REIT is made up of a portfolio of commercial real estate assets, the majority of which are already leased out. Meanwhile, the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> on Monday levelled fresh conflict of interest allegations against Buch and asked Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> to come clean as the head of the appointments committee of the cabinet on her appointment. At a press conference, the Congress alleged that since the current SEBI chairperson took office in 2017, she has not only been drawing a salary from SEBI but has also been holding an office of profit at the ICICI Bank, continuing to receive income from them to this very day. SEBI didn't make any comment on the allegations made by the Congress. Last week, the SEBI Chief stated that there has been a positive response to small and medium REITS (real estate investment trusts) and industry players came forward for regulations on such entities. Recently, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) implemented regulations for small and medium real estate investment trusts (SM REITS) aimed at significantly increasing investor interest in fractional ownership of real estate assets.

If I say anything on REITs, will get accused of conflict of interest, says SEBI Chief

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Indian economy has grown strongly under Narendra Modi, whose party is set to win another term.</li><li>India's success has caught the eye of figures including Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, and Tim Cook.</li></ul>India's powerful economic growth and blossoming middle class under Narendra Modi have caught the eye of corporate titans like Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, and Tim Cook.Modi is pretty much a shoo-in for a third term as prime minister after the national election now underway ends on June 1. But the work starts there, as he'll have to navigate thorny issues such as youth unemployment, income inequality, and reliance on sanctioned Russian oil.<h2>Fueling growth and shaking hands</h2>India's economy has more than doubled in size during Modi's decade in charge to more than $3.7 trillion last year.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/29/asias-growth-and-inflation-outlook-improves-but-risks-remain">recently upgraded</a> its growth forecast for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to a robust 7.8% this year, 6.8% in 2025, and 6.5% in 2026.India has already overtaken Britain to become the world's fifth-largest economy. It's on track to leapfrog Japan and Germany into third spot behind the US and China by 2027.The country's flagship stock index has also tripled in value since Modi took office in May 2014, thanks to wealth gains and growing investment appetites.Moreover, <a target="_blank" href="https://sbi.co.in/documents/13958/36530824/270224-HCES_Feb24.pdf">one estimate</a> puts the percentage of the Indian population living on less than $2.15 a day at below 5%, down from 12% in 2011. However, the <a target="_blank" href="https://pip.worldbank.org/country-profiles/IND">World Bank</a> pegged that figure at nearly 13% in 2021.India's middle class has also ballooned with 60 million people now earning the rupee equivalent of more $10,000 a year — about $37,200 once adjusted for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/IND">purchasing power</a>. Goldman Sachs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/indias-affluent-population-is-likely-to-hit-100-million-by-2027.html">expects</a> the ranks of the relatively affluent to swell to 100 million by 2027."Modi has done an unbelievable job in India," JPMorgan's Dimon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy-inflation-recession-stagflation-geopolitics-crypto-bitcoin-2024-4">told</a> the Economic Club of New York last month. "I know the liberal press here, they beat the hell out of him. He's taken 400 million people out of poverty."Musk has <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1781541775183610310">posted</a> on X that he's looking forward to visiting India and meeting Modi this year. He delayed his trip last month, blaming "very heavy Tesla obligations." The pair are expected to discuss Tesla building a multibillion-dollar factory in the country.As for Apple's Cook, he hailed India on a November earnings call as an "incredibly exciting market" and a "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-tim-cook-obsessed-india-consumers-iphone-2023-7">major focus of ours</a>" given the explosive growth in potential customers as locals get richer.<div type="image" title="Sundar Pichai, Tim Cook, Narendra Modi, Joe Biden" height="3907" width="5861" msid="109838230" hostid="261" sizebytes="846512"></div>Modi has also met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft boss Satya Nadella, and Alphabet's Sundar Pichai. He's likely to be seeking to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in India — and to capitalize on bosses' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-relations-reshoring-manufacturing-jobs-made-in-america-2023-10">desire to hedge their bets on China</a> given its strained relationship with the US, economic woes, and how disruptive its strict pandemic lockdowns were to global supply chains."India's population and economic growth numbers are causing a lot of global executives to revisit their India presence and consider scaling up," Richard Rossow, a senior advisor and chair in US-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies, told Business Insider."Paired with increased concerns about supply chain resilience and security concerns about China, it's a very good time for a hard push to win investments."The United Nations said that India and China both had a population of 1.426 billion in April last year, meaning India is probably now the most populous given its rising birth rate.<h2>Change for the better — mostly</h2>Modi has instigated a raft of major economic reforms since taking office, intended to make India more business-friendly, and boost government revenues by taxing more of the country's vast informal economy.He rolled out a tax on goods and services, simplified bankruptcy laws, lifted FDI restrictions, cut corporate income tax, and ended retrospective taxation.However, not all of Modi's moves spurred growth."Demonetisation was a key economic policy which had negative effects on the economy," Kunal Sen, a director of the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics, told BI.Sen is the author of several books about India's economy and a professor of development economics at the University of Manchester.He was referring to Modi's sudden declaration in November 2016 that all 500 and 1,000-rupee bills — 86% of Indian currency in circulation — would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-ending-500-and-1000-rupee-bills-to-fight-corruption-2016-11">no longer be accepted as legal tender</a>.The government's goals were to capture undeclared income, get rid of counterfeit currency, broaden the tax base, and bring more activities into the formal economy."The other key economic policy was JAM — the trinity of bank accounts for the poor, mobile numbers and a biometric card. This last economic policy has been revolutionary," Sen said.He was hailing a broader digitization drive under Modi that has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/how-indias-digital-payments-ecosystem-has-evolved-in-the-last-one-year/slidelist/90595832.cms">transformed</a> how Indians bank, invest, pay their taxes, and conduct business.<h2>Prosperity for all</h2>Modi's efforts have helped to usher in a more prosperous era for some Indians, but many have been left behind.Young people are India's beating heart, with about half its population under 25 and almost two-thirds under 35. Matching those hundreds of millions of people with jobs has proven a challenge, with youth unemployment almost tripling from below 6% in 2000 to about 18% in 2019. It still stands at a hefty 10% in 2023, per the <a target="_blank" href="https://webapps.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/---sro-new_delhi/documents/publication/wcms_921154.pdf">International Labor Organization</a>.The report found that nearly 30% of India's graduates were unemployed in 2022, and only about 10% of the working-age population was formally employed.<div type="image" title="A farmer uses oxen to plow fields for lentils in Nimaj, Rajasthan, northern India." height="3464" width="5196" msid="109838232" hostid="261" sizebytes="690700"></div>"Unemployment is a big issue," Rossow said, emphasizing this isn't just a problem with recent graduates but a "much, much larger bubble: the underemployed farm laborers."Rising agricultural productivity is likely to help farm workers make a faster transition to city life in the years ahead, but they'll struggle to secure modern jobs in the services industry "without significant reskilling and education," Rossow said.As a result, lower-skilled manufacturing and assembly jobs and lower-end services jobs will be needed, he added.Another major challenge will be tackling a widening wealth divide. The richest 10% of the population hold more than 72% of the nation's wealth, per an Oxfam report <a target="_blank" href="https://d1ns4ht6ytuzzo.cloudfront.net/oxfamdata/oxfamdatapublic/2023-01/India%20Supplement%202023_digital.pdf?">published</a> last year.Business tycoons Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani both rank among the world's 15 richest people, per the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/">Bloomberg Billionaires Index</a>. Luxury-goods sales are booming with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.carwale.com/news/mercedesbenz-lineups-waiting-period-reduced-in-india/">long waitlists</a> for flashy purchases like the Mercedes "G Wagon."<div type="image" title="The Ambani family onstage with Rihanna." height="854" width="1280" msid="109838233" hostid="261" sizebytes="99148"></div>The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/anant-ambani-pre-wedding-festivities-lack-empathy-india-radhika-merchant-2024-3">lavish pre-wedding party</a> thrown by the Ambani family earlier this year was singled out by some as an affront to the huge number of Indians living in poverty.Almost 1.3 billion people live on less than $3,500 a year by one estimate, and India ranks 111th on the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.globalhungerindex.org/ranking.html">Global Hunger Index</a>, below even North Korea.Rising equality is partly explained by a "capital-intensive mode of economic growth along with increasing power of business conglomerates," Sen told BI, referring to how huge companies like the Adani Group secure huge government contracts to build ports, bridges, highways, and other infrastructure.A third challenge is regional inequality, as some states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh haven't experienced the same growth and modernization of their economies as others, Rossow said.<h2>The Russia riddle</h2>One striking aspect of Modi's economic boom has been its reliance on Russia since it invaded Ukraine in early 2022.India went from getting 2% of its crude oil from Russia before the war, to 35% last year. During that period, the US and Europe slapped sanctions on Russian oil to defund Putin's military machine and punish Moscow for attacking a sovereign nation.Despite that, India purchased an estimated $37 billion of Moscow's oil in 2023 — 13 times the amount it bought annually prior to the conflict. Its buying helped Russia rake in a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-sales-india-ukraine-war-moscow-western-sanctions-2024-2">record $320 billion</a> of federal revenue last year.Indian demand for Russian oil has <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-trade-crude-india-discount-barrel-sanctions-price-cap-2024-2">cooled</a> in recent months as new sanctions have made it <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-energy-exports-india-imports-revenue-sanctions-discount-2024-3">more expensive</a>, but the buying remains controversial.Officials in India have <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/crude-oil-prices-india-russia-trade-geopolitics-opec-supply-puri-2024-2">defended</a> the purchases, saying that if they'd bought Middle Eastern oil instead, global crude prices would have shot up.India is also one of the world's largest oil refiners and has helped Western nations to maintain access to refined petroleum products even as they're refraining from buying Russian crude directly.Yet the country imports 85% of its oil, so its overriding interest is securing the cheapest oil possible to support its development, said Neelima Jain, a senior fellow and chair in US India Policy Studies at CSIS."India will continue to buy Russian oil if the price remains favorable and allows for firm volume guarantees, as the country prioritizes energy affordability and accessibility during its rapid rural-to-urban transition, which has led to a 6% year-on-year growth in energy demand," she told BI."In an inflationary environment, economics [rather] than geopolitics will drive India's energy choices."<div type="image" title="Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin" height="3196" width="4714" msid="109838234" hostid="261" sizebytes="426292"></div><h2>India the IT hub</h2>Under Modi, India has made big strides in modernizing its economy, combating bureaucracy, and appealing to foreign investors.Big Tech stalwarts like Microsoft have a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-has-so-many-patents-its-outsourced-the-job-to-india-2013-5">long history</a> of outsourcing to India, but recent efforts to cut red tape and slash corporate taxes appear to have fueled fresh interest.Sweeping layoffs at Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Salesforce and other US tech titans in the past few years could presage a large exodus of jobs to India.Sanjay Shetty of Randstad India <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/outsourcing-hubs-like-india-to-bag-40-of-jobs-lost-to-layoffs/articleshow/101088673.cms?">told The Economic Times</a> last summer that he expected 30% to 40% of the tech jobs eliminated globally to move to India by 2025."India is going to be the biggest gainer in the medium to long term, as almost every company that we speak to is looking at expanding its India base," Shetty said.Even if that pans out, it won't be a panacea for a country facing not just unemployment and underemployment, but also stark income inequality, regional disparities, and the risk of alienating Western allies by continuing to buy Russian oil.Yet overall, India appears to be headed in the right direction."The growth is real, if focused on a few key states," Rossow said. "India's dynamic technology services sector is to IT services what China is to manufacturing. So there is much to cheer, even as the reform agenda seems to never end."

Tech titans love Modi's economic powerhouse India — despite mass unemployment and abject poverty 

The pre-budget <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economic Survey" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economic Survey">Economic Survey</keyword> on Monday called for urgent reforms in India's <keyword id="19915424" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="agricultural-sector" source="keywords">agricultural sector</keyword>, warning that the structural issues could impede the country's overall <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> trajectory. The survey, tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword>, highlighted the untapped potential of the <keyword id="20682012" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-agriculture" source="keywords">Indian agriculture</keyword> sector compared to other economies. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran called for a pan-India dialogue on the agriculture sector. The survey, presented ahead of the annual budget, emphasised that India has yet to fully leverage its agricultural sector for economic growth and job creation, unlike East Asian economies and Western developed nations. "Indian agriculture is not in a crisis now but requires a serious <keyword id="20544318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="structural-transformation" source="keywords">structural transformation</keyword> because climate change and water criticality loom large in the times to come," the survey stated. The CEA advocated for a reassessment of existing policies, despite current government subsidies and support measures for farmers. "The payoff will be immense if we untie the knots that bedevil farm sector policies," Nageswaran said in the survey's preface. While the government provides substantial support to farmers through subsidies on water, electricity, and fertilizers, along with income tax exemptions and minimum support prices, there is room for improvement in policy implementation, he added. The survey identified several key challenges, including balancing growth with food inflation management, improving price discovery, and addressing land fragmentation. To address these challenges, the survey recommends multi-pronged reforms, which include: upgrading agricultural technology, enhancing marketing avenues, adopting farming innovations, reducing input wastage, and improving the agriculture-industry linkages. The document stressed the need to shift focus from basic <keyword id="19992806" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-security" source="keywords">food security</keyword> to nutritional security, aligning with a 'demand-driven food system' that is both nutritious and environmentally sustainable. The survey suggested that policymakers must strike a delicate balance between incentivizing farmers to increase production and keeping food prices within acceptable limits. "This dual objective requires careful policy interventions." The survey also emphasized the need for a farmer-friendly policy framework to ensure markets function in farmers' interests. It recommended avoiding bans on futures or options markets at the first sign of price spikes; invoking bans only under exceptional circumstances; re-examining the inflation-targeting framework; increasing the total net irrigated area, and aligning farming practices with <keyword id="22505922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-considerations" source="keywords">climate considerations</keyword>. Looking ahead to 2047, the survey highlighted the potential of agriculture and allied sectors (horticulture, livestock, fisheries, dairy, and food processing) for sustained <keyword id="20268655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-generation" source="keywords">employment generation</keyword>. "To sustain growth for nearly a generation up to 2047 or more and to ensure that it makes people's lives better and fulfills their aspirations, bottom-up reforms are necessary," it noted. It suggested that India may need to reconsider the traditional development model of transitioning from agriculture to industry and services.

Economic Survey calls for urgent agricultural reforms; cites growth hurdles

Chief Economic Advisor V <keyword id="148840" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="anantha-nageswaran" source="Orion">Anantha Nageswaran</keyword> on Thursday said global uncertainty has been rising after the recent developments in the United States and governments, businesses and individuals should keep 'margins of safety' in fiscal, corporate and savings account planning. He said the global growth estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) given in January look outdated and countries will have to watch what the developments in the US over the last week would do to confidence, bank lending growth and the subsequent chain effects. Two banks in America have gone belly up over the last week. Signature Bank, New York, which lent mostly to the crypto industry was shut down by the regulators on Sunday after there was a run on their deposits. Besides, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last week left many startups, tech companies, entrepreneurs and VC funds nervous and jittery. SVB, the 16th largest bank in the United States, was closed on Friday last by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation which later appointed the FDIC as its receiver. Speaking at the <keyword id="6359483" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="crisil" source="Orion">Crisil</keyword> <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> Outlook seminar, <keyword id="13054616" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="nageswaran" source="Orion">Nageswaran</keyword> said the uncertainty has been on a rising trend and has gone up a few notches in the last week and this is something which countries need to live with, not only this year but for the next year and beyond. "And the important thing to remember is that when you are facing uncertain times, the key thing to do is to make sure that we have margins of safety in our operations, whether it is for corporates or for investors. The only guidance one can think of is to allow for margins of safety, whether it is in fiscal planning, corporate planning or household balance sheet or savings account planning," he said. He said if the developments that have happened in the last week do create a necessity for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes then we have to wait and see what happens to real interest rates in the United States and what will that do to the US dollar. "And also, what implications it will have for emerging economies, which I believe will be mostly positive in one sense, that is, the pressure on their currencies will abate. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve had to go ahead with its tightening programme, having provided a liquidity backstop and put in place some other arrangements to make depositors whole, then we have to wait and see what kind of domino effect it might create on other banking institutions and on the overall economy etc. It is a fairly difficult situation that central banks around the world, especially advanced economies, are confronting," Nageswaran said. He said at this moment, it may be somewhat difficult to quantify the net effect of these developments on countries like India. "The overall positives would be the implications it would have for global demand, for oil prices and for the US interest rates and the dollar. Those kinds of reactions will be mostly positive for us, even if there is an impact on export growth," he said. "You can see the rapidity with which things are evolving, and it is difficult to provide long-term guidance for anyone. It's important, therefore, we allow for uncertainty in our planning processes. And I think to some extent, we have tried to do it in our fiscal policy," Nageswaran said. He said India's GDP growth is expected to be 7 per cent in the current fiscal. "If we are able to get through another week with temperatures in the current ranges, I think the wheat harvest because of the early sowing will also happen ... and we may be able to get a good crop. And this will have positive chain reactions going forward, for inflation, for agricultural output, for monetary policy etc". With regard to the next fiscal, Nageswaran said the growth projection of 6.5 per cent has more downside risk than upside risk. "Of course, all of this is subject to assumptions about how the world situation, both in politics and economics, will look like. But by and large, we look at all sectors, we are well above pre-pandemic levels and private consumption as a share of GDP, if you look at three-quarters of data for the last five financial years, it has been rising," he said. He said one should not be overly optimistic talking about 8-9 per cent GDP growth in the current environment. "If you can achieve, sustain the growth of 6.5-7 per cent or even 6.4-7 per cent in the next 7-8 years until the next decade, we would have done very well". He said public sector capex has been rising in the last several years and has been going up by three times, concentrating on several sectors. Naturally, at some point, public sector capex has to take a step back and the private sector will have to carry on the good work. Public sector capex has created the physical infrastructure for better manufacturing growth and export performance in the years to come, Nageswaran said. The chief economic advisor in the finance ministry also said that the nominal GDP growth for the next fiscal has been assumed at 10.5 per cent, and though India remains optimistic, it is aware of the formidable array of challenges that confronts both developing and advanced economies. "We do require just 2-3 years of steady 10 per cent nominal GDP growth for fiscal parameters to show meaningful improvements. So while it is clear that the quality of expenditure is improving and there is still room for improvement both with respect to quality and quantitative parameters, exaggerated hand wringing may not be necessary," he said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/vedanta-appoints-omar-davis-as-its-president-strategy/articleshow/98690407.cms">Vedanta appoints Omar Davis as its President-Strategy</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/indian-economy-likely-to-log-in-a-tepid-6-growth-next-fiscal-crisil/articleshow/98690120.cms">Indian economy likely to log in a tepid 6% growth next fiscal: Crisil</a>

Global uncertainty rising, need to maintain 'margins of safety': Chief Economic Advisor

The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one presented in February, indicating the government's strong commitment to move along the <keyword id="20099794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-prudence" source="keywords">fiscal prudence</keyword> path, said experts on Tuesday. According to the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the total expenditure in Budget Estimates (BE) 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 48,20,512 crore of which total <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> is Rs 11,11,111 crore. The total expenditure in the Interim Budget presented in February was estimated at Rs 47,65,768 crore of which total capital expenditure was Rs 11.11 lakh crore. Debadatta Chand, Managing Director &amp; CEO, <keyword id="19920717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bank-of-Baroda" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bank of Baroda" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bank of Baroda">Bank of Baroda</keyword>, said the Union Budget complements the main takeaways from the Economic Survey and focusses clearly on medium term development of the economy. "The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one. The budget has shown strong intent on moving along the fiscal prudence path and targeted the <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> at 4.9 per cent for the year," he said. The said action will keep the growth steady as well as robust not only for economy but also banking. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, said the budget has kept the capital expenditure unchanged and pared the fiscal deficit to 4.9 per cent of GDP. "The anticipated reiteration of the reduction in the fiscal deficit to below 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY2026 is welcome. Interestingly, the new medium term fiscal consolidation path has been linked to a reduction in the debt/GDP ratio instead of continued compression of the fiscal deficit/GDP ratio," she said. Buoyed by improvement in revenue collection, the government has lowered fiscal deficit target to 4.9 per cent for the current <keyword id="19910979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-year" source="keywords">financial year</keyword> as against 5.1 per cent estimated in February's interim budget. Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader Economic Advisory, PwC India, said that fiscal prudence is the highlight of the full Union Budget 2024-25. The government has gone with realistic projections on its revenue and expenditure estimates and refrained from announcing overly populist measures. "The majority of the allocations, including the capex allocation, are as outlined in the interim budget, thus providing continuity. The capex being kept at INR 11.11 trillion was expected, given that the ability to consume this allocation is limited due to disruption from the elections in the first quarter and the second quarter being typically slowed down by the monsoons," Banerjee said. Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) President Ranjeet Kumar Agarwal said the government has announced five schemes to facilitate employment and skilling for 4.1 crore youth over the next five years with a central outlay of Rs 2 lakh crore. "This is a welcome step that will create a skilled workforce to address the existing deficit and generate <keyword id="19972727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-opportunities" source="keywords">employment opportunities</keyword>. Additionally, financial support for loans up to Rs 10 lakh for higher education will help students pursue higher education and acquire skills," he added. Indian Institute of Insolvency Professionals of ICAI (IIIPI) Chairman Ashok Haldia said the budget proposals for an integrated technology platform and sprucing up NCLT infrastructure will provide a fillip to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) regime. IIIPI is promoted by ICAI. Meanwhile, Kumarmangalam Vijay, Partner, JSA Advocates and Solicitors, opined that in its new avatar, it seems that the Modi government is keen to deliver on its promise of 'ease of doing business'. "Its focus on making it simpler is evident from the abolition of the angel tax, the increase in new income tax regime thresholds, new Vivad se Vishwas Scheme 2024 for the resolution of pending cases and the increase in the threshold for appeal by tax departments at various levels, decriminalising the non-reporting of shares received from non-resident employers and reducing the period for re-opening of the cases," Vijay said. The Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI) said there has been a focus on the manufacturing sector in the budget. Measures have been taken for simplifying the FDI/ODI rules and regulations, and the <keyword id="21847964" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-regimes" source="keywords">tax regimes</keyword>. The enhanced Mudra loan limit and the abolition of angel tax are all set to incentivize the startup and MSME ecosystem of the country. "The nine priorities identified in this progressive and inclusive budget 2024 are aimed at generating ample opportunities for all. Besides agricultural reforms, the budget focuses on skilling, educating and employing the youth, a priority that the ICSI has been concentrating on," said ICSI President B Narasimhan. Rajesh Magow, Co-Founder and Group CEO, MakeMyTrip, said the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure development is commendable. Enhanced road infrastructure will bolster the travel and tourism sector. "We also welcome the initiatives to develop iconic spiritual and cultural sites into world-class tourist hotspots," Magow said. Furthermore, he said the provision of credit for TCS against income tax under 'Income from Salaries' is logical and will provide much-desired relief to taxpayers who travel internationally.

Budget size almost unchanged from interim, shows govt's commitment to fiscal prudence: Experts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Biden needs to spend his debate time attacking Trump's economic policies, sources told CNN.</li><li>The top Democrat sources told CNN that voters just don't care about what Biden has accomplished.</li></ul>Joe Biden's advisors say he should spend more time at the debate attacking Donald Trump than focusing on his own White House successes, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/25/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-strategy/index.html">a report from CNN</a>.Several top Democrats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told CNN that they've been urging Biden's camp to take an offensive approach to Thursday's debate. They've been advising Biden to focus on criticizing Trump's economic policies and close relationship with corporate America, four sources close to the president told the outlet.Biden shouldn't talk so much about what he's accomplished during his time in office, because the voters don't really care, the sources told CNN."He wants the credit, but it's not working," one of the top Democrat sources told CNN. "He needs to stop."Ron Klain, Biden's former chief of staff and longtime aide, has also said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-talks-too-much-about-bridges-ron-klain-2024-4">the president spends too much time discussing</a> the improvements he's made to infrastructure."I think the president is out there too much talking about bridges," Klain said in April. "I think it's kind of a fool's errand."Klain added that Biden needs to focus on issues people actually care about, like the cost of groceries, because bridges just aren't cutting it.More than 80% of Americans listed the economy and inflation as the top two issues that will determine who they vote for this November, according to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/most-americans-say-economy-and-inflation-are-most-important-issues-determining-who-they-will-support-for-president-in-november">ABC News/Ipsos poll </a>in May. And more Americans trust Trump over Biden on these issues — 46% trust Trump on the economy while 32% trust Biden, and 44% trust Trump on inflation while 30% trust Biden, according to the poll.The Biden campaign has been ramping up its attacks on Trump since the former president's felony conviction last month. Just last week, the president's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-ad-campaign-trump-convicted-felon-2024-6">campaign announced a $50 million ad blitz</a> that includes a searing TV ad railing into Trump's "criminal" character.A spokesperson for the Biden campaign declined to comment on Biden's debate preparation, but highlighted several recent press releases in which the Biden-Harris team slams Trump and his policies.In a debate week press release on Sunday, Biden's team lambasted what it called Trump's "dark 'vision,' where he will serve as a dictator on day one, give tax cuts to the ultra-wealthy on the backs of the middle class, and rip away women's rights."Biden's team said that its recent messaging has been focused on how Trump is bad for America — specifically, how he orchestrated the repeal of Roe v. Wade, how he attacks democracy and "continues to embrace political violence," and how his economic plans will only serve himself at the expense of the middle class, according to the press release.

Biden shouldn't focus on his White House successes at the debate because nobody cares, advisors say

<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s software export revenue and remittances act as a strong counter-cyclical buffer against the increase in current account deficit (<keyword id="52599" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="cad" source="Orion">CAD</keyword>) due to a hike in global oil prices and rupee depreciation, said the State Bank of India's (SBI) Chief Economic Adviser. In a research report Dr <keyword id="6448502" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="soumya-kanti-ghosh" source="Orion">Soumya Kanti Ghosh</keyword>, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, said for every rupee depreciation, software exports increase by $250 million. <keyword id="4757" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="ghosh" source="Orion">Ghosh</keyword> said contrary to the expectations, the Q1FY23 Balance of Payments (BOP) numbers have shown a strong counter-cyclical buffer in the form of service exports and remittances. For example, in Q1, India's CAD was expected to reach $30 billion/3.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), but the actual numbers came in at 2.8 per cent of GDP. The positive surprise was because of strong remittances and software exports, the CAD got a lift of 60 basis points, Ghosh said. "We expect that if such trends of strong remittances and software exports have continued (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> data suggests software exports in Q2 were strong) in Q2, and India's CAD comes in below the threshold level of 3.5 per cent of GDP in Q2, the CAD for FY23 could still be closer to 3 per cent benchmark and not in excess of 3.5 per cent of GDP," he added. Also, forex reserves could jump by another $5 billion as swap transactions reverse and thus have a positive impact on the rupee as is being currently witnessed, he noted. To understand the factors that are impacting India's CAD, Ghosh worked on the structural vector auto-regressions (SVAR) model. With oil forming 30 per cent of India's import bill, it has a major impact on macroeconomic variables. An increase in oil import price impacts directly the trade deficit and consequently, CAD gets widened. That apart, it also results in inflation. According to Ghosh, the SVAR model introduces a counter-cyclical response to increased oil prices in the form of software service exports that is impacted positively because of rupee depreciation. "Although remittances are positively impacted, we have not considered them in our SVAR model because of data volatility." The results of the SVAR model clearly give an idea of the negative impact of oil price shock on CAD, inflation and growth in one direction and the positive impact of software exports on CAD as a result of rupee depreciation. In particular, a positive shock to oil prices leads to an immediate and sharp increase in CAD, which dissipates completely in about eight quarters. The trade deficit also increases up to two quarters after the initial positive oil price shock, he said. "This implies that India's trade deficit may already have been adversely impacted for the first half of the current fiscal because of the oil price shock," Ghosh said. In the case of GDP, a positive shock to oil prices leads to an immediate decline, which however starts reversing after the third quarter and completely dissipates after the seventh quarter. "This implies that India's first-half GDP growth in FY23 could have been impacted because of the oil price shock. Most interestingly, the rupee-dollar exchange rate also gets impacted and it depreciates slightly after an increase in oil prices till three quarters following which it starts appreciating," he said. As a result, the rupee outlook is likely to improve in Q4 of FY23. The impact of oil price on consumer price index (CPI) inflation will dissipate after four quarters and it means that the CPI inflation outlook for FY24 will be consistent with RBI's forecast of 5 per cent. Ghosh said India's software exports are on the rise with the share of the offsite mode of exports by Indian IT service companies increasing to 88.8 per cent in FY22 compared to 82.8 per cent five years ago. Ghosh said a $10 increase in crude oil prices leads to an increase of 40 bps in CAD, 50 bps in CPI and a 23 bps decline in growth with software exports acting as a counter-cyclical buffer. "The exchange rate pass-through from variance decomposition method shows it is at least 10 per cent for CAD, inflation and growth, but significantly stronger at 35 per cent for software exports. For every rupee depreciation, software exports increase by $250 million," Ghosh added. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/bears-weigh-on-indian-markets-due-to-negative-global-cues/articleshow/95418328.cms">Bears weigh on Indian markets due to negative global cues</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/fusion-micro-finance-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-status-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/95407416.cms">Fusion Micro Finance IPO allotment – How to check allotment status, listing date and more</a>

For every rupee depreciation, software exports increase by $250 mn: SBI Chief Economic Advisor

If there is one word to aptly describe the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha <keyword id="20515965" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-results" source="keywords">election results</keyword>, specifically for the incumbent party, it would be jolting, startling, and perhaps, even surprising. The exit polls were wide off the mark, and then some. Less than a week ago, India reported a remarkable <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> rate of 8.2% for the fiscal year 2023-24. Over the weekend, exit polls predicted a clear and easy majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance NDA. Consequently, benchmark indexes, Sensex and <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword>, both zoomed more than 3 per cent on Monday, breaching the all-time high records. On Tuesday, the tides turned! Putting a harsh full stop on the ruling party’s “abki baar 400 paar” narrative, the electoral situation on Tuesday evening shows less than 300 seats to the NDA and over 230 seats to the opposing INDIA bloc. What’s even more concerning for the ruling party is its tally dropping from 303 in 2019 to less than 245 this year. Consequently, on Tuesday, Sensex witnessed the steepest drop in over four years since the pandemic, recording a drop of 4,389 to settle just over 72,000. Nifty also dipped by almost 6%, standing at 21,884 points. If the trends hold, the BJP will lack a clear, simple majority on its own for the next five years, even if it manages to form a government with its pre-poll allies. The question is, how stable the new government would be, what would be the overall impact of this verdict on India’s economy, and what’s the story behind the jitters exhibited by the markets on Tuesday? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="India’s incredible economic growth story" comment="subhead" text="India’s incredible economic growth story">India’s incredible <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> story </cmsannotation>Perched to be the world’s 3rd largest economy by 2027, India’s current GDP value stands at $3.9 trillion. As per FM <keyword id="20200167" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Seetharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Seetharaman</keyword>, the Indian economy is anticipated to grow at a rate of close to 7% in FY25 and hit $7 trillion by 2030. The <keyword id="3530620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-Value-Added" source="Orion">Gross Value Added</keyword> (GVA) data supports the optimistic outlook, with a growth rate of 7.2% in FY24 compared to 6.7% in FY23. And notably, this strong economic growth has come at a time when most of the major economies across the globe are grappling with a slowdown. While few expect India to maintain a robust growth of 8.2%, most economists agree that GDP growth could moderate to around 7% in FY25. But most of these growth forecasts are contingent on a stable government and policy reforms at the centre. So, does the sharp fall in benchmark indices on Tuesday foretell a twist in India’s growth story? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Is there a twist in the tale?" comment="subhead" text="Is there a twist in the tale?">Is there a twist in the tale? </cmsannotation>Firstly, the <keyword id="16791710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-inflows" source="Orion">foreign portfolio inflows</keyword> (FPI), indicative of the global confidence reposed in the Indian markets, have been on a consistent decline over the past 3 months. As of 4th June 2024, foreign institutional investors had withdrawn a total of Rs 14,339 crores from the Indian equity markets while investing Rs 55,273 crores in debt instruments, which are traditionally reflective of safety, security, and a low-risk and change appetite. Foreign institutional investors had also withdrawn Rs 25,586 crores during May 2024, and Rs 8,671 crores during April 2024. If anything, the Indian market stands atop the strong confidence of domestic investors. The AUM (assets under management) of the Indian mutual fund industry stood at a record high of around $57 lakh crores in April 2024, even as the SIP AUM hit a record high of Rs 11.26 lakh crore. "The steep fall is due to the results so far falling short of the exit polls which the market had discounted yesterday. If BJP doesn't get a majority on its own there will be disappointment and this is getting reflected in the market. Also it is possible that Modi 3.O may not be as reform-oriented as the market expected and may turn more welfare- oriented," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail" comment="subhead" text="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail">Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail </cmsannotation>But does this mean India’s growth story stands threatened or even jeopardized? Even though social media is flooded with memes that might lead one to believe it is all over for India’s story, the country remains the fastest growing economy amongst all G-20 nations in 2024, compelling almost all rating agencies to positively hike the country’s potential growth rate. But, equally noticeable is the fact that India’s private consumption, a major indicator of the economy’s growth, jumped by only 3.5% over the last 3 months of 2024. India now makes up 6.7% of the world’s GDP by purchasing power parity (PPP). As figures go, India is set to become a $10 trillion economy by 2030. Veteran investors like Raamdeo Agrawal, who heads Motilal Oswal Financial Services, believe that India’s potential growth rate of 8-8.5% is not going anywhere and that NDA’s leadership is here to stay. In his words, if an investor has managed to make 4-5x in the last 3-4 years, one will have to give in 20-30%. But that is where you will have to persist as an investor. "With the NDA still looking to form a government, though with the important support of coalition partners, markets look jittery about the prospects of strong decision making. Markets believe that the reformistic approach, which was a hallmark of the previous two terms, might take a backseat in the third term. However, our sense is that it is still early to jump to conclusions and should ideally wait for a clearer picture," said Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox. But all in all, the NDA government is most likely to stay for the full term, and those who bet on the same stand to stay safe despite the surprisingly strong performance of the INDIA alliance. However, in the end, the only one who wins in the market stays put in the market in the long run. Because NDA, or INDIA, compounding is here to stay, all set to immensely benefit long-term investors. (With inputs ANI)

You Searched For "Modis chief economic advisor" and got 9 results

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Biden shouldn't focus on his White House successes at the debate because nobody cares, advisors say

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For every rupee depreciation, software exports increase by $250 mn: SBI Chief Economic Advisor

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