<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/milkeninstitute/with/33857495148/">Milken Institute / Flickr</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li>Ten experts at the Milken Institute Global Conference couldn't agree when asked about the biggest risk facing the investment landscape and overall economy.</li><li>The lack of a clear-cut adversary has the panelists in defensive mode, even as financial markets remain strong.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/milken-2019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Follow all of Business Insider's coverage of the 2019 Milken Conference here.</a></li></ul><p>BEVERLY HILLS - Risks to the global market landscape were a major talking point during the first day of the <a href="https://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/conferences/global-conference/2019/program-detail" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milken Institute Global Conference</a> - perhaps unsurprisingly, given recent trepidation over a possible recession.</p><p>What was surprising, however, was the failure of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/milken-2019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milken</a> panelists to agree on the most likely source of turbulence. There's usually something resembling consensus around the biggest risk, whether it may be the US-China trade war, or the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve</a>.</p><p>But not right now.</p><p>Without a clear-cut adversary, both the investing landscape and the economy are as uncertain as it's been in some time. That's forced experts like those speaking at Milken to shift into a more defensive stance, even as financial markets <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-sp-500-on-track-to-close-at-record-high-2019-4-1028131134" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stay strong</a> in the immediate term.</p><p>It all fits with the cautiously optimistic tone that characterized the first-day panels at Milken. While there are still returns to be gleaned in the market, most everyone is looking over their shoulder, waiting for a different bogeyman to emerge.</p><p>Provided below are the biggest fears laid out by 10 experts across two separate Milken panels. </p><p><strong>Lara Warner - Group Chief Risk Officer, Credit Suisse</strong></p><p>"I hate to say, but it has to come back to Europe. I do worry that we're in a period where small earthquakes can lead to large tsunamis. And it seems to be the place that is most fragile."</p><p>"We just talked about the United States, and some of the disparities between the states and the federal government. Europe, in many ways, is an example of that, as a region. I think it's highly likely, with a number of elections coming in the next year or so, that we will see some shocks."</p><p>"Our concern is: you have those shocks, no monetary options, no fiscal options, frankly, not-as-developed financial markets as you see here in the US. Some, but not strong exposure to the Asian region, which is probably the bouyant area around the globe. That's the place we're most worried about."</p><p><strong>Ronald O'Hanley - President and CEO, State Street Corporation</strong></p><p>"I don't know if it's a risk, or a phenomenon, but I think it's this idea that, since everything requires technology, what are the scale requirements? And are we seeing inevitable consolidation across every industry?</p><p>"We're in the situation now, in financial services, that, between regulation and how to effectively employ technology, it's no longer too big to fail. It's too small to scale. And I think that's happening in industries around the world. It's great to develop the app. But the app doesn't work unless you develop the platform. And you can't develop the platform unless you have scale.</p><p>"How do we think, as investors, about what to invest in, that's ultimately going to achieve the kind of scale we think we need."</p><p><strong>Scott Minerd - Chief Investment Officer, Guggenheim Partners</strong></p><p>"I'm concerned about the butterfly effect. That risk premia are so low, assets are so highly valued, that all these unresolved issues - whether it be in Europe, or Latin America, or elsewhere - make it so that, just like 1998 with the Asian crisis, an event like devaluing the Thai baht will set off a chain reaction that we're not prepared for.</p><p>"Longer term, the real risk I see is we will end up back in an inflationary malaise because we don't have real policy solutions. What we're living through today looks like a lot of the 1940s and the 1950s. And ultimately, when the 60s came, with the expansion of the deficit with the Vietnam War, inflation began to take off.</p><p>"We're just like the proverbial frog in the pot of water. How do you boil a frog? You just put it in cold water, turn on the heat, and slowly let the pot come to a boil."</p><p><strong>David Hunt - President and CEO, PGIM, The Investment Management Business of Prudential</strong></p><p>"The systematic undervaluation of risk premia is a major risk. But we all suffer from fighting the last war. And I think we're all very much aware of what happened in the great financial crisis.</p><p>"The next crisis is going to come from a different place. I think it's going to come from technology and cyber. If I were looking for the thing that worries me the most, it would be an actual attack on the infrastructure of the financial markets that really bursts into it and creates a shutdown of the major pipes we use to do business. It's something we spend a lot of time working on and investing in."</p><p><strong>Tom Finke - Chairman and CEO, Barings</strong></p><p>"When we're investing, we're wondering what's going to disrupt the companies that we may be investing in today, and are they aware of it? What changes or disrupts an industry that we're long currently? It's a lot to keep you up at night."</p><p><strong>Joseph Naggar - Partner and Head of Structured Products, GoldenTree Asset Management LP</strong></p><p>"From a macro, top-down perspective, we're most closely watching the US dollar, which is up about 9% in the last year. Oil is sort of getting in the mid-70s. Things that will change this goldilocks environment. It's a race between the central banks and slower growth, and the central banks right now are winning. Things like that could change the macro environment."</p><p><strong>Mark Machin - President and CEO, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board</strong></p><p>"Isolationism in all of its forms."</p><p><strong>Sir Michael Hintze - Group Executive Chairman and Senior Investment Officer, CQS</strong></p><p>"Energy. Oil is about 3 to 3.5% of global GDP. The other energy pieces are about 2%. That price change will actually change the world. But if you really want to know what keeps me up at night, it's the global pandemic issue. That'll destroy the world.</p><p>"If you look at what happened when SARS hit, only 37 people died. The reality is that knocked global GDP down 3-4% pretty much overnight. That's something that could take us to the cleaners."</p><p><strong>Elif Bilgi Zapparoli - Co-Head of Global Capital Markets, Bank of America Merrill Lynch</strong></p><p>"Low interest rates. It allows for mispricing of risk."</p><p><strong>Mark Attanasio - Cofounder and Managing Partner, Crescent Capital Group LP</strong></p><p>"If you look at the growth of the stock market in the United States and wage growth. You see huge outperformance for how stocks have grown while wages have stayed relatively flat while growing. The good news is, that keeps inflation down. The bad news is, it's created all kinds of divides in this country that may be irreparable if they're not changed soon."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reporter-calls-out-claim-that-fbi-was-happy-comeys-firing-sarah-huckabee-sanders-white-house-press-briefing-2017-5">This video shows the moment Sarah Sanders lied to a room full of reporters about FBI agents telling her they were happy Trump fired Comey</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

10 of the world's best investing minds shared their biggest fears at Milken - and the lack of consensus is a major red flag of its own

<p><span><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><p class="source">REUTERS/Jason Reed</p></div></div>Some of the biggest, bravest investors in the world are gathered here at the CNBC/Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha Conference, and as they do year after year, they're sharing their views on <keyword id="6357126" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="monetary-policy">monetary policy</keyword> and its impact on the bond market.</span></p>
<p><span>We've watched these investors go from loving Bernanke, to hating Bernanke, from saying that we should be buying bonds to saying it's time sell bonds. This year, it's something completely different.</span></p>
<p><span>All these investors do is stay out of Bernanke's way.</span></p>
<p><span><span>"You can protect against certain scenarios better than you can predict them," said <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100538788" target="_self" class="inline_asset" data-nodeid="100538788">Michael Hintze</a><span>, Founder &amp; Chief Executive Officer, CQS.</span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>Also joining Hintz were </span></span></span> <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/48162361" target="_self" class="inline_asset" data-nodeid="48162361">Gregory J. Fleming</a>, President, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100512464" target="_self" class="inline_asset" data-nodeid="100512464">Joshua S. Friedman</a>, Co-founder, Co-chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer, Canyon Partners, and <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100513043" target="_self" class="inline_asset" data-nodeid="100513043">Andrew J.M. Spokes</a>, Managing Partner, Farallon Capital Management.</p>
<p><span>Through the talk, the four money managers sitting on stage were basically throwing up their hands and saying — "lets just go with it." Yes, they still think this an unprecedented time of central bank action. Yes, something unforseen is goign to hapen eventually — but there were few predictions on stage, and even fewer hands-ringing.</span></p>
<p><span>Resistance, as they say, is futile.</span></p>
<p>Here's a perfect illustration: CNBC's Becky Quick opened up the conversation asking if The Great Rotation (what everyone is calling the move from bonds into stocks) is upon is.</p>
<p>The short answer: Who knows?!</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/48162361" target="_self" class="inline_asset" data-nodeid="48162361">Gregory J. Fleming</a><span>, President, Morgan Stanley Investment Management said simply, "<span>very few economists would have told you on May 1st that the 10 year could be at 2% in the next month... It's very hard to call."</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>It was hard to call, and it was also hard to invest in. Fleming and his fellow panelists didn't sound ready to see that happen again full tilt.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>His advisers over at Morgan Stanley are figuring out how to alter their asset allocation, but mostly they're still moving more into stock market — in 2008 they had less than 40% of their cash allocated there, now they have about 50%. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>As for the credit markets, "the only observation I would make is that in credit markets... you're a lot closer to record low levels than you are to record high levels," said another panelist.</span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>Not necessarily a big call.</span></span></span></p>
<p>Now, while this talk was going on, Quick called on Leon Cooperman to approach the stage and give his case for why he'd never invest in bonds. </p>
<p>Genius that he is Cooperman threw down a stunning six point argument that all came down to this — Why buy bonds when the Fed is buying bonds? I'll take my chances with equities, thanks.</p>
<p>Bernanke, do your worst. These guys are just going to watch.</p>

After 5 Years, It Actually Sounds Like Wall Street's Most Badass Investors Are Finally Done Fighting The Fed

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP Images</span></p><p class="caption">The most dangerous data breaches in history were caused by hackers and human error.</p></div><p></p></div></div>The referendum on whether or not to stay in the EU is the <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword>'s main political event of 2016.</p><p>It's hard to predict with any accuracy the economic and financial effects of the referendum given uncertainty of its outcome and the fact that an exit from EU would be unprecedented.</p><p>With this in mind, Credit Suisse analysts Sonali Punhani and Neville Hill have put together a weighty research note to try and answer the question of how the UK economy would be hit in the event of a Brexit.</p><p>The answer: very badly.</p><p>Here's a quote from the report (emphasis ours):</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">Overall, the vote to leave the EU would entail <strong>an immediate and simultaneous economic and financial shock for the UK</strong>. We are likely to see an immediate contraction in GDP, which can be seen as a front-loading of the fall in UK national income that leaving the EU would imply for the UK.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">In the medium term, we expect it to be negative for both UK demand and supply implying a weaker GDP growth path. The recovery from the snap recession is likely to be more muted,<strong> making the GDP level post leaving meaningfully lower than if the UK votes to stay. </strong></p><p>Credit Suisse estimates that UK GDP could immediately fall by up to 2 percentage points if the country voted to leave the EU. And it would never really recover.</p><p>Firstly, a lot of companies would move workers overseas. More than a third of employers surveyed said they would be likely to shift staff out of the UK. Here's the chart:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Credit Suisse</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>The UK would lose its status as a hub for bright European things and companies depending on top talent would start to look elsewhere.</p><p>On Monday, top pharmaceutical executives echoed this fear, warning that a Brexit would "isolate the country's scientists," according to <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/9216298e-bf67-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf">a report in the Financial Times.</a></p><p>Secondly, the current account deficit, already hovering close to 5% of GDP, would balloon further as foreign direct investment from the EU tails off. As a result, the analysts say the pound would fall in value, making imports more expensive and stretching household incomes.</p><p>Here's what that looks like:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Credit Suisse</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>While all this might be scary, according to Credit Suisse, it is unlikely. As the polls stand, more people are planning to vote to stay rather than leave the EU.</p><p>Here's that chart:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Credit Suisse</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Businesses and business leaders have been taking strong positions on either side of the debate. <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-fund-britains-pro-europe-referendum-group-2016-1">Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are pouring cash into the campaign group fighting to keep Britain in Europe</a>, ahead of a referendum on the issue that could come as soon as this summer.</p><p>The banks are donating to campaign group Britain Stronger in Europe, led by Stuart Rose, the former CEO of Marks &amp; Spencer, putting themselves in opposition with fund managers who prefer to leave the EU.</p><p>Sir Michael Hintze, who founded hedge fund CQS back in 1999, is <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-boss-sir-michael-hintze-close-to-anti-eu-donation-2015-11">believed to have backed the anti-EU Vote Leave group</a> and Crispin Odey, the founder of hedge fund Odey Asset Management, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/vote-leave-pro-brexit-group-launches-2015-10">is also backing the campaign</a>.</p><p>While the vote could be held as late as 2017, many analysts think June 2016 is more likely if Prime Minister David Cameron's negotiations with the EU on concessions are successful next month.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/successful-shark-tank-stories-mark-cuban-scrub-daddy-2015-12">5 of the most successful 'Shark Tank' stories of all time</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="pxanFreTrxlZGsVrCTcXaLsYyQbC08oW" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

CREDIT SUISSE: Here's just how disastrous a Brexit could be for the UK economy

<p>During CNBC/Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha conference billionaire hedge fund manager <keyword id="831606" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Leon-Cooperman">Leon Cooperman</keyword> stood up from the audience on a panel he's not on to make a case for being bearish on U.S. <keyword id="114127" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Treasuries">Treasuries</keyword>. </p>
<p>It happened during "The Great Rotation" panel with guests Gregory Fleming, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management; Josh Friedman, Canyon Partners; Michael Hintze, CQS; and Andrew Spokes, Farallon. </p>
<p>CNBC host Becky Quick turned from the panel to ask Cooperman, who was sitting in the audience, where we are in the Great Rotation out of bonds.  </p>
<p>Cooperman, who was prepared, stood up and said "I'll give you six reasons" on why he thinks government bonds are a bad bet. Everyone in the audience started laughing.</p>
<p>We couldn't catch all of his reasons, but he says bonds are more expensive relative to equities.  He also sees bond yields moving higher in 2 to 3 years. </p>
<p>He said he'd rather take his chance in equities.  During last year's Delivering Alpha, Cooperman gave ten stock picks.  All of them are higher, some even substantially higher. </p>
<p>Absolute Return reporter Lawrence Delevingne Tweeted a picture of Cooperman. Check him out: </p>
<p> </p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Only at <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23DeliveringAlpha&amp;src=hash">#DeliveringAlpha</a>: Lee Cooperman rises from audience to make case for equities over bonds for next 2-3 yrs <a href="http://t.co/ktzxKsiI1e">pic.twitter.com/ktzxKsiI1e</a></p>
— Lawrence Delevingne (@ldelevingne) <a href="https://twitter.com/ldelevingne/statuses/357517759933984770">July 17, 2013</a></blockquote>

Leon Cooperman Stood Up In The Audience At A Hedge Fund Conference To Make A Bearish Case For Bonds 

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/image-details/2.6541655">AP Photo/Isaac Brekken</a></span></p><p class="caption">Big bets are about to be placed.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Hedge funds and banks are commissioning private opinion polls on voters' intentions in the upcoming EU referendum so they can trade on the result, <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/7e26d896-241c-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d#axzz4AD5oBN6t">according to the Financial Times</a>.</p><p>The paper reports that finance firms are commissioning exit polls on June 23, polling day, in a bid to try and get an early idea of which way the country will vote. This will allow banks and hedge funds to place bets that can theoretically earn them millions if the hunch turns out to be right.</p><p>The FT quotes an anonymous pollster as saying: "Hedge funds have asked for exit polls and for hourly polls on the day. Banks are certainly commissioning polls for their own consumption that are never released."</p><p>The cost of these private polls is around £500,000 ($730,965) each, according to the FT.</p><p>Currency and stock markets are likely to see big swings whichever way the result goes, presenting a once in a generation opportunity for ambitious traders looking for a big score.</p><p>Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ig-increases-margins-ahead-of-eu-referendum-as-fca-warns-firms-to-prepare-for-brexit-2016-5">told BI last week that his firm is expecting a "20% fall in Sterling and a 20% rise in dollar</a><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ig-increases-margins-ahead-of-eu-referendum-as-fca-warns-firms-to-prepare-for-brexit-2016-5">, so a 40% move"</a> in the event of a "Brexit" vote - a vote for Britain to leave Europe. ETX sits on the other side of trades from retail customers and is tailing off the leverage it offers in the run-up to the referendum to stop it getting burned. IG Group, the £2.8 billion retail trading company, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ig-increases-margins-ahead-of-eu-referendum-as-fca-warns-firms-to-prepare-for-brexit-2016-5">has taken a similar approach.</a></p><p>For professional punters who make these trades - hedge funds and banks - it could be a huge payday. Hedge fund manager George Soros famously bet against the pound when it crashed out of the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2015/07/07/forbes-flashback-george-soros-british-pound-euro-ecb/#50da0ea3cefc">Forbes estimates Soros made $1.5 billion in just a month from the position.</a> Banks and hedge funds see the EU referendum as an opportunity for a similarly large score.</p><p>Investors have already piled up more than £11 billion in currency options that would profit if the pound falls more than 4% after the <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword>'s EU membership referendum on June 23, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/investors-make-big-bets-on-pound-crashing-after-brexit-2016-3">according to Bloomberg data</a>.</p><p>The latest online polls <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/icm-and-yougov-referendum-latest-polls-2016-5">show the "Leave" and "Remain" vote neck and neck</a>, but phone polls give the <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ipsos-mori-shows-18-point-lead-for-remain-2016-5">"Remain" camp a strong lead of as much as 18 points.</a></p><p>Even if "Remain" does triumph on the day, the pound is likely to see a big "relief rally" as the uncertainty that has been dogging the market disappears.</p><p>The pound is down over 14% against the dollar since last May's general election, the result of which set the wheels in motion on the referendum. Sterling fell sharply at the start of this year and hit its <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/pound-dollar-fall-feb-24-2016-2">lowest point in February after UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced the date of the referendum</a>. The pound has since rebounded and is at 1.468 against the dollar on Tuesday.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Investing.com</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Banks and hedge funds have poured millions into funding both sides of the referendum debate.</p><p><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-fund-britains-pro-europe-referendum-group-2016-1">Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are both believed to have backed the "Remain" camp</a>, while Sir Michael Hintze, founder of hedge fund CQ, is <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-boss-sir-michael-hintze-close-to-anti-eu-donation-2015-11">believed to have backed the anti-EU Vote Leave group</a>. Crispin Odey, the founder of hedge fund Odey Asset Management, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/vote-leave-pro-brexit-group-launches-2015-10">is also backing the "Leave" campaign</a>.</p><p>David Harding, the founder of hedge fund Winton Capital Management, is on the board of pro-EU campaign group Stronger in Europe and <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/winton-capital-management-founder-david-harding-backs-stronger-in-europe-2015-11">has reportedly donated several million pounds</a>. Egerton Capital's John Armitage is also donating to the Stronger in Europe campaign.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-flags-emails-with-these-phrases-2016-6">These are the phrases that will get your email flagged at Goldman Sachs</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="JmMWw3NDE67SsX7jdg192zCLe6Blqs_t" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Hedge funds will be using secret polls to trade on the referendum result

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.paimages.co.uk/image-details/2.6541655">AP Photo/Isaac Brekken</a></span></p><p class="caption">Big bets are about to be placed.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Hedge funds and banks are commissioning private opinion polls on voters' intentions in the upcoming EU referendum so they can trade on the result, <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/7e26d896-241c-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d#axzz4AD5oBN6t">according to the Financial Times</a>.</p><p>The paper reports that finance firms are commissioning exit polls on June 23, polling day, in a bid to try and get an early idea of which way the country will vote. This will allow banks and hedge funds to place bets that can theoretically earn them millions if the hunch turns out to be right.</p><p>The FT quotes an anonymous pollster as saying: "Hedge funds have asked for exit polls and for hourly polls on the day. Banks are certainly commissioning polls for their own consumption that are never released."</p><p>The cost of these private polls is around £500,000 ($730,965) each, according to the FT.</p><p>Currency and stock markets are likely to see big swings whichever way the result goes, presenting a once in a generation opportunity for ambitious traders looking for a big score.</p><p>Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ig-increases-margins-ahead-of-eu-referendum-as-fca-warns-firms-to-prepare-for-brexit-2016-5">told BI last week that his firm is expecting a "20% fall in Sterling and a 20% rise in dollar</a><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ig-increases-margins-ahead-of-eu-referendum-as-fca-warns-firms-to-prepare-for-brexit-2016-5">, so a 40% move"</a> in the event of a "Brexit" vote - a vote for Britain to leave Europe. ETX sits on the other side of trades from retail customers and is tailing off the leverage it offers in the run-up to the referendum to stop it getting burned. IG Group, the £2.8 billion retail trading company, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ig-increases-margins-ahead-of-eu-referendum-as-fca-warns-firms-to-prepare-for-brexit-2016-5">has taken a similar approach.</a></p><p>For professional punters who make these trades - hedge funds and banks - it could be a huge payday. Hedge fund manager George Soros famously bet against the pound when it crashed out of the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2015/07/07/forbes-flashback-george-soros-british-pound-euro-ecb/#50da0ea3cefc">Forbes estimates Soros made $1.5 billion in just a month from the position.</a> Banks and hedge funds see the EU referendum as an opportunity for a similarly large score.</p><p>Investors have already piled up more than £11 billion in currency options that would profit if the pound falls more than 4% after the <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword>'s EU membership referendum on June 23, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/investors-make-big-bets-on-pound-crashing-after-brexit-2016-3">according to Bloomberg data</a>.</p><p>The latest online polls <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/icm-and-yougov-referendum-latest-polls-2016-5">show the "Leave" and "Remain" vote neck and neck</a>, but phone polls give the <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ipsos-mori-shows-18-point-lead-for-remain-2016-5">"Remain" camp a strong lead of as much as 18 points.</a></p><p>Even if "Remain" does triumph on the day, the pound is likely to see a big "relief rally" as the uncertainty that has been dogging the market disappears.</p><p>The pound is down over 14% against the dollar since last May's general election, the result of which set the wheels in motion on the referendum. Sterling fell sharply at the start of this year and hit its <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/pound-dollar-fall-feb-24-2016-2">lowest point in February after UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced the date of the referendum</a>. The pound has since rebounded and is at 1.468 against the dollar on Tuesday.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Investing.com</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Banks and hedge funds have poured millions into funding both sides of the referendum debate.</p><p><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-fund-britains-pro-europe-referendum-group-2016-1">Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are both believed to have backed the "Remain" camp</a>, while Sir Michael Hintze, founder of hedge fund CQ, is <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-boss-sir-michael-hintze-close-to-anti-eu-donation-2015-11">believed to have backed the anti-EU Vote Leave group</a>. Crispin Odey, the founder of hedge fund Odey Asset Management, <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/vote-leave-pro-brexit-group-launches-2015-10">is also backing the "Leave" campaign</a>.</p><p>David Harding, the founder of hedge fund Winton Capital Management, is on the board of pro-EU campaign group Stronger in Europe and <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/winton-capital-management-founder-david-harding-backs-stronger-in-europe-2015-11">has reportedly donated several million pounds</a>. Egerton Capital's John Armitage is also donating to the Stronger in Europe campaign.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/alibaba-jack-mas-secrets-to-success-2016-5">REVEALED: Alibaba founder Jack Ma's secrets to success</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="htYmNtMzE6dD7eBpI_wAtO8n2X-00eMe" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Hedge funds are getting help from pollsters so they can place big bets on the EU Referendum

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/restricteddata/6322992684/in/photolist-aCJZrf-q1d6GF-pHMstF-4saSBE-q1kTBQ-p4qxdq-bcZ3xa-Ht8dT-8vvXRV-p4qyr7-8vw7nz-p81asa-oxp2v6-5Km7rg-oPBH9B-bfXD7Z-iU4rN-Je31q-pHQWKH-5Qpza1-bY2k4E-q13iri-pY7w2h-q13uf2-5QDnfL-5QDfE5-4LR4cQ-6T9NUA-pHR2xZ-aeKutf-aCJZmd-9j3m68-ojhDUA-pHMnvV-9Z6SjV-pHMuSZ-6Ctgpt-8Cv5NF-3dcUVe-6suskE-6wia7k-35Go3J-5ukzDt-nv4Akh-pY7uo7-94WB5G-5YhfL9-3bJSQe-omeXmx-eNhWqY">Flickr/RestrictedData</a></span></p><p class="caption">Donations made before February 1 may not be disclosed.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Millions of pounds are pouring into either side of the debate over whether Britain should stay in Europe or leave - but just how much each side is getting and from who could remain largely a secret.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/hidden-millions-fund-the-debate-over-britain-s-european-future">Bloomberg points out in an article on Thursday</a> that both the "Remain" and the "Brexit" (a British exit from Europe) camps have received huge amounts of funding over the last six months in preparation for the <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/britains-eu-referendum-will-be-held-june-23-2016-2">June 23 referendum</a>.</p><p>But the bulk of cash appears to have come before the February 1 deadline when the Electoral Commission requires all donations above £7,500 to be made public. It means many major corporations and individuals trying to sway public opinion could remain anonymous.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/hidden-millions-fund-the-debate-over-britain-s-european-future">Bloomberg quotes</a> Darren Hughes, deputy head of the Electoral Reform Society, as saying: "We need to know who's giving the money and who's trying to influence the debate. We're concerned about unreported income because the regulated period is too short."</p><p>Despite the lack of disclosure requirements prior to February 1, many donations have leaked out. Here's a rundown of the main backers we know about on each side:</p><h2>Remain</h2><ul><li><strong>David Sainsbury:</strong> Great grandfather set up supermarket J Sainsbury's. Provided seed funding for Britain Stronger in Europe, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/hidden-millions-fund-the-debate-over-britain-s-european-future">according to Bloomberg.</a></li><li><strong>Goldman Sachs:</strong> <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-fund-britains-pro-europe-referendum-group-2016-1">Backed </a><a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-fund-britains-pro-europe-referendum-group-2016-1">Britain Stronger in Europe at the end of January.</a> A spokesman told Bloomberg the bank put in £500,000.</li><li><strong>JPMorgan:</strong> Also backed Britain Stronger in Europe <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-fund-britains-pro-europe-referendum-group-2016-1">around the same time as Goldman</a>. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/hidden-millions-fund-the-debate-over-britain-s-european-future">Bloomberg says</a> $500,000 donated. Unconfirmed.</li><li><strong>Morgan Stanley:</strong> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/hidden-millions-fund-the-debate-over-britain-s-european-future">Bloomberg says</a> $500,000 donated. Unconfirmed.</li><li><strong>David Harding:</strong> Founder of hedge fund Winton Capital Management is <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/winton-capital-management-founder-david-harding-backs-stronger-in-europe-2015-11">believed to have backed Britain Stronger in Europe in November</a>. Donation was said to be several millions at the time.</li><li><strong>John Armitage:</strong> Founder of hedge fund Egerton Capital also <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/winton-capital-management-founder-david-harding-backs-stronger-in-europe-2015-11">reportedly donated to Stronger in Europe around November.</a></li></ul><h2>Leave</h2><ul><li><strong>Crispin Odey:</strong> The founder of hedge fund Odey Asset Management was <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/vote-leave-pro-brexit-group-launches-2015-10">one of the founding members of the "Vote Leave" campaign</a> and is believed to be a significant backer.</li><li><strong>Peter Cruddas:</strong> The former Conservative Party Treasurer and founder of CMC Markets was another founding member of "Vote Leave" and, <a href="https://next.ft.com/content/db7ce4fe-8e17-11e5-a549-b89a1dfede9b">according to the Financial Times</a>, put £1 million into the group in November as seed funding.</li><li><strong>Sir Michael Hintz: </strong>The founder of hedge fund CQS was "considering" a big donation to the <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/vote-leave-pro-brexit-group-launches-2015-10">Vote Leave campaign</a> in November, according to the Financial Times.</li></ul><p>These are just the names that have either leaked publically or been announced so far in the referendum debate - there are likely a lot more big donations going on behind the scenes.</p><p>Both groups have strong links to business: the remain campaign is chaired by former Marks &amp; Spencer CEO Sir Stuart Rose, while founding members of the "Vote Leave" group include JML founder John Mills, Phones4U founder John Caudwell, Reebok founder Joe Foster, Numis Securities CEO Oliver Hemsley, and Patisserie Valerie chairman Luke Johnson.</p><p><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34478008">The BBC reported</a> that Vote Leave is planning to spend at least £20 million on the campaign, around half the total the Conservative Party spent in the year leading up to last May's general election. That implies very deep pocketed backers.</p><p>The Electoral Commission will chose the official campaign for each side (there are various factions at the moment) in April, after which the designated groups will be required to publish their first spending reports by the end of the month. Electoral Commission spokesman James McGrory <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/hidden-millions-fund-the-debate-over-britain-s-european-future">declined to tell Bloomberg</a> if groups would disclose donations it received before February 1.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-billionaires-real-estate-trick-sell-their-penthouses-faster-for-more-money-2016-3">The real estate trick billionaires use to sell their penthouses faster and for more money</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="VycG0yMjE69omwf5-yxWoSA5EDyVrymY" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

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