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<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEjH_H8naQA">YouTube/MaoistRebelNews2</a></div>Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said armed conflicts will break out in Iraq and <keyword id="30174" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Lebanon">Lebanon</keyword> if Syrian rebels topple Bashar al-Assad, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ap-interview-iraq-premier-syria-war-spread-18606218">according to an interview he gave</a> to Adam Schreck and Qassim Abdul-Zahra of the Associated Press.
"The most dangerous thing in this process is that if the opposition is victorious, there will be a civil war in Lebanon, divisions in Jordan and a sectarian war in Iraq," Maliki said, adding that peace should be achieved through dialogue.
Maliki's stark words may be an attempt to <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-iraq-iran-overflights-20130227,0,5977608.story">protect the Shiite Crescent</a> — the geographical link between Shiites in power from <keyword id="41896" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Iran">Iran</keyword>, Iraq, Lebanon and <keyword id="6354913" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Syria">Syria</keyword>.
"The removal of Assad by a Sunni government will weaken the Iraqi Shiites" by emboldening Iraq's Sunnis, Baghdad-based political analyst Hadi Jalo told AP. "Any reasonable person would be surprised if the Iraqi government ... refrains from supporting Assad."
Maliki's comments come at a time when his Shiite-led Iraqi government faces increasing threats.
The major outside threat to Iraq is radical Sunni rebels from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/syrias-al-nusra-has-intense-training-2012-12">Jabhat al-Nusra</a> — the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/syrias-rebels-terrorists-2012-12">highly effective</a> frontline force that controls <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/al-nusra-sells-oil-to-the-syrian-government-2013-1">controls large swaths</a> of eastern Syria — which is <a href="http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/08/analysis-study-shows-rise-of-al-qaeda-affiliate-in-syria/">led by veterans</a> of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).
"The Sunnis in [Iraq's Anbar province] are helping with weapons and ammunition," the leader of a powerful rebel group in eastern Syria powerful told <keyword id="76338" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Reuters">Reuters</keyword>. "Their days (of fighting) will come soon and Inshallah (God willing) we will go to jihad with them. Those Sunnis are our brothers."
Inside Iraq another AQI offshoot, Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), is <a href="http://moderntokyotimes.com/2013/01/07/jihadists-exploit-syrian-turmoil-as-the-islamic-state-of-iraq-makes-a-comeback/">making a comback</a> and recently <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/01/iraq-sectarian-violence_n_2599523.html">called on Sunnis to rise up</a> against the Shiite-led Iraqi government.
Lebanon has seen a rise in attacks <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/syrian-war-has-officially-reached-lebanon-2013-2">on both sides of its border with Syria</a> and the government — led by Iranian proxy Hezbollah — would be largely cut off from its benefactor were Damascus to fall. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/world/middleeast/syrian-flood-into-lebanon-stirs-fear-of-looming-disaster.html?pagewanted=all">Sectarian tensions are rising</a> as Syrian refugees pour into the country.

Iraqi Prime Minister Says War Will Spread If Syrian Rebels Win

By now, it is a foregone conclusion that <keyword id="71" type="POSITION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Prime-Minister">Prime Minister</keyword> <keyword id="6354642" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Modi">Modi</keyword> is among the most popular politicians in the world. What makes him stand a class apart and highly regarded on the world stage? Well it is his clear cut strategy that has evolved over a period of time. Those who saw him as the Chief Minister of Gujarat have also seen the way he has moved on to different roles in the journey that has spanned across a decade and half now. 
 Modi is among those world leaders who do not wield power, but ooze the confidence and share the energy on world stage. You must believe it if reports say Modi is third-most popular person on Internet with highest number of followers on twitter, only next to Pope and American President <keyword id="15962" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Barack-Obama">Barack Obama</keyword>. No mean feat this, really. 
 
As the first anniversary of his Prime Ministership draws to a close, Modi continues to rule the roost across the world. Media isn’t his most favourite place, because he believes in being a doer, and not a mere interviewee. 
 
In a rather candid interview with none other than TIME magazine, Modi comes across as a ‘no frills’ Prime Minister who speaks of his vulnerabilities and strengths with equal confidence. That he was new to the system of federalism, and that various departments across the government structure worked like independent silos is something only Modi could have come clean on. Any other leader with a rather ‘political’ demeanor would have made an effort to appear cool and all informed about it. But, no. That isn’t Modi. He says since he did not understand it completely in the beginning, he took time to study it well and come to terms with the intricacies of a federal state. He calls it cooperative federalism. 
 
Is there another country where a leader may have had as humble a beginning as Modi’s and yet has made efforts to study things more systematically than rely on the man Fridays around? 
 
Perhaps it is an easy route for many politicians, but Modi does not believe in that. He would like to learn things by himself, so that he can ask right questions when needed. Be it his visit to the US, calling the nation as natural allies; his understanding of China, or issues that have become a thorn in the flesh of Srilanka, reaching out to Maoists and inviting them to have an exchange of thoughts – all along, Modi has proven he is here to stay for a long time. 
 
At the world stage, rebranding of Modi has happened systematically and across the board. His reaching out to Nepal soon after a massive earthquake hit that land of Buddha simply earned a lot of praise across the world. PM Modi was at his best and worked swiftly at times when the tiny neighbor needed the help. 
 
From being a Hindutva poster boy, Modi has sure come a long way on the road that leads to statesmanship. His chair may be in India, but his eyes are on the world stage. Like Shakespeare said, the world is a stage and we are all actors; Modi has mapped his next steps rather too well. 
The icon that he is, today, Modi is more approachable and highly focused. He isn’t worried about exhibiting his vulnerable side, especially when it comes to talking about his humble roots. He gets emotional, smiles and regains his composure at the blink of an eye. Modi, the statesman, is about being a ‘different’ leader who plays on the world stage. 
 
Which is why, the branding exercises have undergone a massive change. He now looms large over the horizon of world map. His trips abroad to various countries may be the butt of most jokes or criticism but Modi has a goal that is much larger than India. His ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas’ is a non-sectarian approach to secularism. 
 
President Obama’s high-profile visit, the second one during Obama’s term in office, has created some sort of deep confidence among Indian people about Modi’s potential to take the country on the right road. A few elections in states may have brought some damaging results, but that’s not for Modi to worry about. He has moved far from the politics of roots, such as Sangh, or VHP or for that matter, even BJP. Today, he is almost the single handed authority to arrive at decisions on what would work with people and the kind of messaging it would send on international arena. 
 
In an interview with TIME magazine, Modi spoke of bilateral relations with over 16 countries that he managed to visit during the first year in office. The clarity and the alacrity with which he has spoken on various issues make him a leader truly in charge, and a leader India would be proud of. 
 
(Image: Reuters)

Modi: The world is his stage now

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Carlos Barria</div></div>China has investigated <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-probes-more-than-25000-people-for-graft-in-first-half-of-year-2014-25">over 25,000 people for corruption</a> in the first six months of 2014. Probes into major cases were up 14% year-over-year.
<a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-01/14/c_133044810.htm">182,000 officials were punished</a> by discipline inspection agencies in 2013, up 13.3% year-over-year.
Remember, Chinese president Xi Jinping came to power on the back of a very ominous message from his predecessor. In late 2012, outgoing president Hu Jintao <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hu-jintaos-speech-highlights-economy-corruption-2012-11">warned </a>that corruption could prove "fatal" to the Chinese Communist party, and even "cause the collapse of the party and the fall of the state."
Xi, who has been described as "redder than red" took that message to heart. Under his watchful eye, China's anti-graft campaign has gathered steam.
At first we saw an austerity campaign that warned against lavish gift giving and wasteful consumption. Soon that spread to the takedown of corrupt officials in the Chinese communist party, though some would argue that the seeds of this were sown in the downfall of former Chongqing leader Bo Xilai.
Now, government officials have caps on daily spending when traveling around China. The Chinese military has been banned from buying foreign-made vehicles. The State Council is widening its probe into the use of public funds for travel, gifts etc among military officials. And officials have become nervous about being caught <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-officials-afraid-to-play-golf-2014-6">playing golf</a>.
Talking about the scope of this campaign in 2013, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/22/us-china-corruption-xi-idUSBRE90L0AA20130122">Xi said</a>,"we must uphold the fighting of tigers and flies at the same time, resolutely investigating law-breaking cases of leading officials and also earnestly resolving the unhealthy tendencies and corruption problems which happen all around people." 
<h3>The tigers and flies</h3>
Zhou Zhenhong, former member of the Standing Committee of the Guangdong Provincial Committee and former head of the United Front Work Department, was <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1437111/senior-guangdong-official-zhou-zhenhong-sentenced-death-graft">sentenced to death</a> with a two-year reprieve. Zhou, a "tiger" was found guilty of <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-01/24/content_17254882.htm">accepting $4 million in bribes</a> and failing to account for about $6 million in assets. Zhou first came under the scanner in 2012. 
Last year, Liu Tienan, former deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) was <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1295287/former-senior-official-liu-tienan-be-prosecuted-graft">expelled from the Communist Party</a> after being accused of corruption. Liu was one of the first tigers to be caught in the anti-graft sweep across China, based on accusations made online. 
Liu Zhijun, former railways minister was given a suspended death sentence for corruption and abuse of power. Su Rong, former party chief for Gansu, Qinghai and Jiangxi Province before moving to the CPPCC, and a "tiger" was under suspicion for violating party rules and state law.
The latest to be ensnared in the crackdown is Rui Chenggang, a host on China Central Television (CCTV) and in the bigger scheme of things a fly. <a href="http://english.caixin.com/2014-07-14/100703599.html?utm_source=The+Sinocism+China+Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=754b729af6-Sinocism07_15_14&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_171f237867-754b729af6-24573061&amp;mc_cid=754b729af6&amp;mc_eid=743b9e45b4">Caixin Online reported</a> that he was detained shortly before his program aired on July 11. Li Yong at CCTV2 was also detained. The probe has also extended to other television executives like Guo Zhenxi, director of CCTV2.
And now the campaign is shifting gears to focus on "naked officials," those with immediate families that live abroad. Over a thousand naked officials were found in Guangdong province in June, with 200 of those officials asking their families to return home and 866 agreeing to demotions.
Xi's Consolidation Of Power
But there are two names that truly stand out. First, is <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-28305134">Zhou Yongkang</a>, a former Politburo Standing Committee member, is said be under investigation and so are three officials linked to him, Li Dongsheng, Jiang Jiemin, and Wang Yongchun.
Of course for Xi the one happy coincidence to this corruption purge, is that it helps him knock off some of his rivals. "Power consolidation is of course very important and we should consider the ongoing investigation into Zhou Yongkang and his allies at least in part in that light," Bill Bishop author of Sinocism told Business Insider. 
"There is little doubt these people were engaged in remarkable amounts of corruption, and there are all sorts of unproven rumors about plots and deals among this group in the runup up to the 2012 18th Party Congress, but taking down this network has also allowed Xi to gain control over the security services, and much faster than most observers expected."
"The other vital source of hard power is of course the military," explained Bishop, enter: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/world/asia/china-moves-against-one-of-its-top-leaders.html?_r=0">Xu Caihou</a>, who once held one of the highest positions in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and was a member of the Politburo. Xu was expelled from the Party and handed over to prosecutors for accepting bribes. This of course is a further sign of Xi consolidating power over the PLA.
Jim Chanos sees the corruption drive as a much more serious effort to "cleanse the party." Speaking on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-on-china-anti-corruption-2014-7">Bloomberg TV's Charlie Rose Show</a> he said, "If you look at the people's daily overnight announcements - I mean, there is four or five headshots put up on Twitter and on their website, of people who have been taken away every night. I mean it's almost as if you're seeing a Soviet-style 1930s purge through a social media."
Some argue that this makes Xi more <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/xi-jinping-reminiscent-of-deng-not-mao-2013-11">a Maoist, than a Dengist</a>, with reference to Deng Xiaoping, China's paramount leader from 1978 until his death in 1997. But some argue he's neither.
"I see Xi Jinping more as a Machiavellian than a Maoist," Arthur Dong, professor of strategy and economics at Georgetown University told Business Insider. "The ends that Xi Jinping and his reform minded coalition wish to pursue relate to the long-term viability of the Communist Party."
"Institutional weakness as a result of endemic corruption on the part of government administrators has been a recurring feature of China's past and one of the driving forces that led to the end of the dynastic cycle. President Xi knows that for the Party to survive it must maintain its legitimacy," he explained. "Invariably, some of the accused represent views that come to differ with Xi's. Their removal also presents the opportunity to remove a political rival. It is a messy game that Xi has so far been very adept at playing."
"It is a mistake however, to conclude that it is just about reshuffling officials so Xi can put his people in place," Bill Bishop author of Sinocism told Business Insider in an email interview. 
"I believe that Xi is serious about improving governance and cleaning up at least the more egregious corruption in both the Party-state and the military," Bishop said. "I think the anti-corruption efforts are also clearly about reining in and in some cases removing special interests that are resisting the very ambitious reform plans passed at the Third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress in November 2013."
<h3><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right click-to-enlarge"><div class="image"><a title_source="Bank of America" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53adf6026bb3f7222c83b203-960/screen shot 2014-06-27 at 6.52.19 pm.png"></a>Bank of America</div></div>The Economic Impact</h3>
There is however a snag to the anti-graft campaign. Unlike other countries, in the short-run, cracking down on corruption actually hurts growth in China, according to Alastair Chan at Moody's. 
The austerity campaign that we saw in real force in 2013, deterred conspicuous consumption and lavish gift giving. At the time, it hurt sales of luxury goods, catering at high-end restaurants, and wasteful construction of government buildings. Top-end restaurant sales were down 35% YoY in 2013.
Now Bank of America's Ting Lu believes that corruption is going to start impacting fixed asset investment (FAI). "Even for the honest officials, the escalated anti-graft campaign is making them think twice before making investment decisions," wrote Ting. 
"The officials are increasingly cautious as they don't want to be the next target of the campaign for the actions they have taken. Many feel the safest way during the heightened crackdown is to do nothing. This is part of the reason that Premier Li has repeatedly called for more action at local levels since May."
Ting points to "the abnormally high growth in bank deposits of governments and quasi-government agencies (up 28.3% and 23.6% yoy in February 2014 respectively)," the slowdown in retail sales and FAI growth as factors weighing on the Chinese economy.
Of course, Xi is aware that he can't terminate the campaign at this point. In fact economists expect it to continue for another two or three years. Moving forward Beijing is left with a tough choice between the social benefits of lower corruption or economic growth.

China's President Has Only Begun To Take Down The Tigers And Swat The Flies In His Historic Corruption Crackdown

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Iraqi Prime Minister Says War Will Spread If Syrian Rebels Win

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China's President Has Only Begun To Take Down The Tigers And Swat The Flies In His Historic Corruption Crackdown

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