<ul class="summary-list"><li>Executives at Davos weighed in on the likelihood and severity of a recession in 2023. </li><li>Most expect the US to have a shallow recession, but Europe and elsewhere could be hit harder.</li></ul>Executives gathered at Davos this week, with the most turbulent economic period since the global financial crisis near the top of their agendas.Insider spoke with C-suite members from groups including McKinsey, KPMG, EY, and Cisco about their outlook for the economy in 2023, and how it might affect the labor market and their businesses. <h2>Tracy Francis, McKinsey chief marketing officer</h2>"The scenario is complicated. We have an energy crisis, we have inflation, we have the specter of decoupling … but I think one of the things we are talking to clients a lot about is not talking ourselves into a recession. "An event like this has such a power to influence the level of optimism or otherwise that is out there. While we don't want to be Pollyanna about macro-economic trends, I do think there is bright sports around the world. India, Indonesia, all those kind of things that are going on that we are encouraging clients to think about, and like I said not talking ourselves into a recession."<h2>Paul Knopp, KPMG CEO</h2>"The potential recession that might occur is largely central bank-induced. I think what's really going to be worth watching is how quickly will they turn, because a central-bank-induced recession in theory would be more easily unwound than a recession that is due to fundamental things that are wrong with society and the economy."My personal view is I think that if we have a recession in the US, that there's a really good chance that could be very short and shallow. If there is one, the global picture is more complicated."<h2>Rima Qureshi, Verizon chief strategy officer</h2>"I think regardless of whether it is a recession, whether we are dealing with the inflation and how long it lasts, I think there will be a long period of uncertainty, whether it be geopolitical, economic, environmental. I think there's going to be a lot of uncertainty. "And that means it's time to really think about hunkering down and focusing on what's important, and really focusing on the fundamentals, which is what we are doing within the company."<h2>Fran Katsoudas, Cisco chief people, policy, and purpose officer</h2>"Some of the layoffs are more about cutting costs. And we've heard companies talk about the fact that perhaps during the pandemic, they over-hired. And so those layoffs are absolutely related to economic stability and growth."You have other layoffs that are actually about the transformation of companies. And I think in that situation, it is more of a skills discussion, and how do we ensure that we have what we need, as we move forward?"<h2>Andy Baldwin, EY global managing partner </h2>"The consensus view is that we appear to be moving into a recession. But I think it's important to qualify that … I think this recession is asymmetric. So yeah, we've got clearly parts of the world that are growing strongly and I think are going to continue to grow strongly, even when of the possible future recession."My own personal view is, I think we will likely see a technical recession, two quarters of negative GDP effectively, in parts of the world, most likely Europe, perhaps the US, but it doesn't feel like this is going to be a severe recession."<h2>Peggy Johnson, Magic Leap CEO </h2>"I think the economy will sustain at the level that it's at now. I don't know that it's going to get much worse, but I don't know that it's going to get much better into 2023. That's kind of my feeling."<h2>Jeff Maggioncalda, Coursera CEO</h2>"If you just read our earnings announcement and look at our results, we have seen a slowdown that occurred during 2022. Will that get worse or will that get better in 2023? We're not really super positive. Our business's three segments, historically, have been counter-cyclical."When unemployment goes up, people will get a degree because they want to be more qualified to get a more scarce job. When unemployment goes down, people are like 'I don't want to get a degree, I want to make some money'. So I think that segment will be counter-cyclical. We will do better if there's a recession – at least if there's a recession with unemployment."<h2>Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup president </h2>"There's a lot more optimism now, particularly in the labor market. So you saw the eurozone unemployment reached a historical low, the US labor market is on a 50-year low for unemployment. And so the labor markets are defying the odds of economic principles. "No one's predicting a super robust economy, but more 1% GDP growth versus negative one or 2%. And I think the labor market will probably have a very shallow impact. I think there will be impact more than we're seeing now. But I think it'll be a shallow impact."

Here's what top executives at Davos are saying about a recession. Many can see silver linings.

The ‘Me Me Me’ generation, also known as <keyword id="657946" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Millennials">millennials</keyword>, are not that selfish as we all think and they are independent, self-motivators and prioritise jobs as well. 
 As per a survey conducted by US-based HR consulting firm ManpowerGroup, 94% people born between 1980 and 1995 look for <keyword id="79541" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-security">job security</keyword> and are willing to work even after 70 years of age. 
 
The survey stated that 39% of the respondents expect to work beyond the age of 65 and 25% are ready to work even after they turn 70. 
 
The report revealed a number of attributes of the millennials such as they like new ways of working and are always looking for new challenges and opportunities. 
 
"For millennials to commit to the vision of the company, they need to feel empowered. It is critical to let millennials experiment and discover their own way. While they desire accountability and guidance from a superior, they prefer getting the job done on their own," said AG Rao, group managing director of ManpowerGroup India. 
 
Also, millennials want to be independent and explore their creative side and problem-solving ability. 
 "Employers need to check with millennials regularly about their <keyword id="6359968" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="career">career</keyword> path and development. Rather than annual reviews, focus on near-term objectives. Frequent conversations will enhance their career prospects and long-term employability," Rao said. 
 
The survey stated millennials work longer and harder than their predecessors, with 89% of Indian respondents saying they foresee taking breaks longer than four weeks along the way, mostly for personal reasons. 
 
While the report reveals a global bias towards women taking time off to care for others, India appears more balanced in this regard, with both men and women sharing this responsibility. 
 
The report shows that 78% of millennials are willing to spend their own time and/or money on further training while 83% see ongoing skills development as an important part of their future careers. Only 7% of those surveyed said they had no interest in training. 
 
Millennials want new opportunities with their current employer, according to the report, with 39% saying they intend to stay with their current employer for the next few years or longer. 
 
(Image: Thinkstock)

This survey cracks code millennial for you and it is quite right

With 100 days of Modi government over and an improved business sentiment in the country, India Inc will witness robust hiring in the remaining year. According to industry experts, hiring across all industry sectors is likely to rise as economy gradually picks up pace. 
 

	“Indian employers report dynamic hiring plans for the third quarter of 2014. Employers in all four regions expect to increase payrolls during the Q3 2014. North has a forecast of the strongest labor market with a net employment outlook of 53%. Bullish hiring intentions are also evident in South and West regions. Meanwhile, employers in the East anticipate prosperous hiring activity with a hiring outlook of 31%,” stated a report by ManpowerGroup, an HR firm. According to the report by ManpowerGroup, the recruitment is expected to be upped in sectors which include public administration and education, wholesale and <keyword id="6354851" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Retail">retail</keyword> trade, transportation and utilities, services, finance, insurance and real estate sector. “Employers expect robust hiring plans in all seven industry sectors and all four regions during Quarter 4. The coming quarter, the situation looks more promising with the recovery made by IT firms and allied companies. There is a big opportunity for the e-commerce sectors to add more <keyword id="11018" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jobs">jobs</keyword> to the labour market. The future demands in the IT sector for skills would include web analytics, design skills, IT languages knowledge, understanding on security issues, database management and analysis skills,” said AG Rao, Group Managing Director, ManpowerGroup India. 
	 

	He, however, added that companies have still been cautious in recruiting the right candidates. “The job-seekers need to have industry knowledge with practical intelligence”, he noted. 
	 

	Bimal Rath, HR expert and founder of Think Talent, a recruitment consultancy firm attributed the expected boom in the job market to the fact that the new government has been taking initatives to improve the business environment in the country. “The government is serious about implementing many of held up policy matters, which is benefitting all the sectors. This will certainly result in a spurt in the hiring activity across sectors as new projects would be commenced and existing ones will get the much needed push”. 
	 

	The Current Scenario 
	 

	According to market reports, media and entertainment industry is expected to lead the job market in the long term followed by consumer durables. While online recruitment has rebounded in the automotive industry, recruitment banking and financial services sectors including insurance witnessed a considerable improvement in its hiring activity. 
	 

	“The hospitality sector has also been charting robust annual growth rates since February 2014. Online recruitment in the travel and tourism sector exceeded the year-ago level by 52 percent in August”, stated Monster Employment Index for the month of August 2014. “Studying the trends of various sectors, the media &amp; entertainment industry has rocketed a 62% growth. Robust growth is exhibited by almost all industry sectors monitored by the index like IT/ITES, Healthcare, Engineering and Construction, Production &amp; <keyword id="6362048" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Manufacturing">Manufacturing</keyword>, Travel and Education which indicates that the business sentiment is turning positive. We are hopeful that things will further improve in coming months,” said Sanjay Modi, Managing Director, Monster.com, India. 
	 
	Representational Image

Acche Din For Job Seekers, Hiring To Go Up In Q4

<keyword id="657946" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Millennials">Millennials</keyword> will make up 50% of the workforce by 2020. They represent the future of economic growth in India, and like millennials all over the world, their experiences and behaviors are very different from their parents. Having come into the world during a time of technological advancement, globalization, and economic disruption, they are very proactive about their careers and lifestyles. 
 
Compared to older generations, this segment of population is the most focused on its financial future. Millennials want to save for life-changing events like a first home, having a child, or starting an entrepreneurial venture. They want global products that can function effectively in their local environment and appreciate experiences that cater to their individual tastes. They also want to have disposable income to spend on foreign holidays, fancy vehicles, and more. 
 
So it’s no surprise that today’s working professionals are actively looking at different and more sophisticated investment options to provide them with a quicker and more satisfying ROI. 
 
In addition to bonds, stock-trading, and recurring deposits, most individuals in the age group of 23-35 are now investing a set amount of money, every 6-8 months, in acquiring new skills. 
 
Why are they doing this? 
Millennials know that a career is no longer about working your way up a narrowly defined ladder. Industries are dynamic and ever-evolving. Graduating from tier I engineering or management institutes is not enough to secure a rewarding career path. The world is on the cusp of technological breakthroughs in fields like artificial intelligence and large-scale automation that have the potential to transform the nature of most workplaces overnight. Skills, tools, and practices that are in-demand today can easily be obsolete tomorrow. 
 
So millennials are proactively taking steps to build long-lasting careers. 
 One way they are doing that is by taking training courses that will prepare them for valuable, industry-recognized certifications. Certification are a popular option as they don’t just benefit a career over the long term, but also ensure a solid ROI within 12 months through a better job or salary increase. With sky-high demand for professionals skilled in technologies like <keyword id="774829" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Big-Data">Big Data</keyword>, <keyword id="618493" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-marketing">Digital Marketing</keyword>, <keyword id="6373689" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Cloud-computing">Cloud Computing</keyword> and more, one is easily bound to get paid 30 – 40 % more after getting a professional certification in a new-age technology. 
 
Organizations across a range of industries are also making the shift. The most important part of a new employee’s induction into the company is training and development. Fresh college graduates are the most likely to receive training, with the likelihood decreasing as professionals get closer to the mid-career level. However, even employees who have many years of experience under their belt can only learn so much if they haven’t received formal training in a while. 
 
The fastest growing domains today are all relatively new – according to the McKinsey Global Report, the emerging field of Big Data will need 1.5 million managers by 2018. According to Forrester Research, the global Cloud Computing market will grow from $40.7 billion in 2011 to $241 billion in 2020. 
` 
While many businesses still rely only on an employee’s prior experience when hiring, increasingly, they realize that the way to get the best out of their employees and earn the most for their businesses is by investing resources in upskilling their entire workforce. 
 
ManpowerGroup India MD A G Rao has said that Manpower Group surveys clearly show that millennials understand the need for lifelong skill development – 93% of young working professionals surveyed were willing to spend both time and money to acquire new skills. Four out of five respondents said that the opportunity to learn new skills was a key factor when considering a new job offer, and that over 20% of respondents intended to take an extended break from work to upskill via certification training. 
 
According to data from Simplilearn Career Data Labs, individuals, on average, spend Rs 15,000-20,000 per year on upskilling, and this can go up to Rs 40,000-50,000 if they are looking for skills training that can provide them with a more immediate ROI in the form of a salary increase. 
A more recent report from the Manpower Group also found that 83% of millennials believe that on-going skill development is crucial for their future and career. So up-skilling has definitely become the new saving and investment choice for millennials for a secure financial future. 
 
(The article is authored by Krishna Kumar, Founder &amp; CEO, Simplilearn) 
 
(Image: Thinkstock)

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