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Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Major Wall Street analysts are warning of more headwinds for Chinese stocks next year, even amid stimulus.</li><li>After an initially positive reaction, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are turning more bearish.</li></ul>China's stock market is likely headed for tougher times ahead, at least according to a few prominent Wall Street firms.Strategists from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently cut their outlooks, warning of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-consumer-spending-demand-real-estate-debt-crisis-2024-8#:~:text=The%20world's%20second%2Dlargest%20economy,%2C%20falling%20short%20of%203.9%25.">slowing growth</a>, even as China's top leaders continue to unveil stimulus measures meant to reinvigorate its slowing economy.Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2025 target on the MSCI China Index from 84 to 75, keeping its overweight rating on the stocks but citing potential for lower earnings growth as a result of US tariffs. The index traded at roughly 64 on Monday.Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, has a target of 63 by the end of next year. The firm had taken away its underweight rating on the index back in October, pointing to a better policy outlook.The shifting outlook comes as the country has rolled out stimulus measures to address persistent economic challenges like its slumping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-outlook-home-prices-slumped-beijing-property-crisis-real-estate-2024-4">property market</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7">weak consumer sentiment</a>.The analysts had initially seemed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">optimistic</a> after the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">first round of stimulus</a> announced in September. Both firms upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks in the weeks after, with Goldman Sachs analysts upgrading their stance to overweight, while the Morgan Stanley strategists changed their rating from underweight to neutral.Traders took note. The MSCI China Index hit its highest in over two years at the end of September, but in the time since, the index has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">now fallen</a> some 15% as analysts wonder how much more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-li-qiang-fiscal-stimulus-market-sentiment-us-election-2024-11">stimulus</a> is left."We see a low limited chance that China's government will front-load enough fiscal stimulus to target consumption and housing in 2025 due to concerns over moral hazard and a premature transition into a 'welfare state,'" Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a Sunday note, adding, "We expect even stronger headwinds on corporate earnings and market valuation in the coming months."The analysts are also pricing in tariff risks from Donald Trump's US election win. Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs, including steep 60% duties on Chinese goods. They acknowledge, though, that with the actual extent of the tariffs yet to be finalized, there is still a great deal of uncertainty."The magnitude, profile, timing of the tariffs, and the resulting policy reactions from China make the situation more fluid and difficult to analyze," the Goldman analysts wrote."The only certainty is that it will be the overarching theme driving market volatility in the months ahead, and investors will monitor the tariff developments closely to dynamically adjust their views on the market," they added.

Wall Street is cutting outlooks for Chinese stocks just weeks after a stimulus blitz

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An index of non-US stocks saw their steepest decline since August this week. </li><li>The broad sell-off came after Trump's election win stoked fears of coming trade wars. </li></ul>Donald Trump's win has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">sent US stocks on a tear</a>, but for equities in the rest of the world, it's sparked a sell-off on fears of a widespread economic downturn due to tariff risks.An MSCI <a target="_blank" href="https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/899901">index</a> of large and mid-sized stocks outside the US tumbled 1.6% on Tuesday, its steepest daily drop since August.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index, meanwhile, lost 2.1% for its worst one-day drop in three months, while an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800">index</a> of emerging market stocks dropped 2%. Another index shows emerging market currencies have nearly pared their year-to-date gains with a 1% drop since the election.The losses come a week after Trump's US election win and as the president-elect has appointed some key cabinet members.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11">Trump's appointments</a> have shown a preference toward his most loyal supporters and those who he says share his "America First" protectionist agenda. Along the campaign trail, Trump proposed an across-the-board tariff of at least 10%, with a far steeper tariff of 60% on imports from China. If enacted, those duties would pose <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*1mwwhu3*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxMDc3NS4zOTkuMS4xNzMxNTEyMDU5LjcuMC4w">huge obstacles</a> for international economies reliant on trade with the US.In Europe, analysts at Dutch bank ING say there could be a "full blown recession" under Trump's tariffs, while Germany in particular could suffer a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bundesbanks-nagel-trump-tariffs-could-cost-germany-1-economic-output-2024-11-13/">1% hit to GDP</a>, according to the country's central bank president Joachim Nagel.China's already fragile economy, meanwhile, will only be further damaged by a new trade war. Analysts at UBS say tariffs would hamstring most trade between the two nations and likely affect China's GDP."The mooted 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from the rest of the world could make much of US-China trade unviable, reduce US domestic demand and corporate profits, and lead to lower GDP growth around the world, particularly in China," the analysts wrote in a note last week.As stocks in the rest of the world have faced steep declines, US shares have rallied sharply since the election.The S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have each jumped to record highs, driven by gains in Trump trades like bitcoin, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trillion-valuation-donald-trump-election-win-tsla-2024-11?_gl=1*jyqhh7*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQxOTczNy4zOTIuMS4xNzMxNDE5NzcxLjI2LjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Tesla</a> and shares of banks expected to benefit from deregulation and tax cuts.

Non-US stocks have seen their sharpest sell-off since August on fears over Trump's tariffs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The national debt has blown past $35 trillion, and it's only going to go up under Trump or Harris.</li><li>Left unchecked, unsustainable deficits will slow GDP growth, decrease savings, and spur inflation.</li></ul>The US has a big, $35 trillion problem: the national debt.After a bout of pandemic stimulus, the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S">national debt</a> ballooned from an already hefty 103% of GDP in 2019 to 120% currently.Left unchecked, the deficit will continue to creep higher and could drag GDP growth. Too much government spending reduces public and private savings levels, decreases labor productivity, and increases our dependence on foreign investment, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-policy-boost-labor-market-national-debt-job-market-taxes-2024-10">Chris Brightman</a>, CEO and CIO of the investment advisory Research Affiliates.<div type="image" title="Federal budget deficits crowd out national saving" height="648" width="1237" msid="114740934" hostid="261" sizebytes="20852"></div>If the US debt continues on this trajectory, Brightman predicts that the US could follow in the footsteps of European economies and see annual GDP growth decline to 1%.<div type="image" title="High spend and national debt associated with slow growth for various countries" height="580" width="923" msid="114740936" hostid="261" sizebytes="20990"></div>That's not to mention that welfare programs like Social Security will be on the chopping block. According to the Social Security Administration, Social Security benefits will be reduced by almost 25% starting in 2034 if nothing is done to address the national debt.<h2 id="ff5f9554-8d16-41da-bb6b-669693d7fe8e">No change in November</h2>Neither Harris nor Trump have a plan to address the deficit.In fact, both candidates are pushing policies that would increase deficit spending. If there's a blue or red sweep in November, government spending levels will be even higher.There are two main ways to reduce deficits, according to Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group. The first is to grow your way out. By growing the economy at a faster rate, the proportion of debt to GDP decreases."Nobody wants to really think about Plan B. Plan B is either raising taxes or cutting social programs and raising taxes when inflation is high," Yoshioka said.Both of those policies are incredibly unpopular, which is why the candidates haven't said much on the topic.However, growing GDP won't be sufficient to fix the situation, according to Brightman. "The math doesn't work," he said. If GDP continues to grow at its predicted pace of 2% per year, that's not even enough to cover the US government's interest payments on debt, much less reduce the principal amount. Interest costs are projected to reach 3.4% of GDP by 2025, and 4.1% by 2034.<h2 id="c865dcdc-9063-4908-8e2c-e1b6f1e4bae8">How to invest</h2>Until the government takes steps to get the deficit under control, there are a few things investors can do to protect their holdings.Continued high national deficits could put the credibility of US sovereign debt into question, leading to a depreciating dollar and increased inflation.The US government might try to use inflation to chip away at the real value of the debt by pursuing expansionary monetary policies such as quantitative easing, according to Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp &amp; Company. If the US dollar were to decrease in value, the government could repay the debt more cheaply than when it was first incurred."As the US government continues to get deeper in debt, how are they going to work their way out of that?" Muhlenkamp said. "One of the potential outcomes ends up being a devaluation, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a> is a nice hedge against that.""Real" assets, or investments backed by tangible resources, are generally a good hedge in a high-debt environment, according to JPMorgan. These investments have direct intrinsic value and tend to store long-term value effectively. Examples include commodities, real estate, and infrastructure. Muhlenkamp likes the energy sector in particular. JPMorgan also recommends increasing exposure to non-US dollar-denominated assets.Avoid long-term Treasurys, Muhlenkamp added."Where you definitely don't want to be is in long-term government debt," he said. "[The government] will inflate away the value of the debt if they can get away with it."Muhlenkamp is predicting that the next decade will see <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">increased inflation</a>, which will eat away at bond yields.Yoshioka points out that there's also the risk of a failed treasury auction, which is when the Treasury Department doesn't receive enough bids to take on the debt it's trying to sell. If this were to happen, the Federal Reserve would need to step in and purchase the unwanted bonds by printing money, creating more inflation.Some funds that offer exposure to real assets include the iShares US Energy ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-energy-etf-us4642877967?miRedirects=1">IYE</a>), the Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/fidelity-msci-real-estate-index-etf-us3160928574?miRedirects=1">FREL</a>), and the iShares Gold Trust (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-gold-trust-us4642852044?miRedirects=1">IAU</a>).

The national debt crisis is set to worsen no matter who wins the election — here's what you can do to protect your portfolio 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Emerging markets stocks are set for their worst monthly decline since January. </li><li>The slump comes as investors price in higher odds of a Trump win in the upcoming US election.</li></ul>It's been a tough month for emerging market stocks as the odds of a Donald Trump election win rise — and with it, the odds that his proposed tariff plan will actually see the light of day. Emerging market stocks are headed for their worst monthly decline since January, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling for a fourth day on Thursday for a 3.1% decline this month.A select few EM stocks have taken the biggest hits, with Samsung, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for more than half of the index's fall. The decline comes as the market prices in higher odds of a win for former President Donald Trump with just two weeks until the election.On crypto betting market Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning soared as high as to 66% on Tuesday, their highest since President Joe Biden was still in the race in July. Odds are now slightly lower at 62%.Polls, meanwhile, are much closer, with the most recent national polling average compiled by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris">RealClearPolitics</a> showing Harris at 48.7% versus 48.5% for Trump.Trump has proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to as high as 20% and has said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">subject to a 60% tariff</a>.Investors' fears of a damaging trade war aren't unfounded. In 2018, Trump's trade war with China led to a significant underperformance compared to US stocks, and strategists say the election's outcome is again pushing investors away from EM shares as uncertainty builds. "US elections have become a key driver of uncertainty as risk positioning is clearly fluctuating to a more cautious stance. In our recent client interactions, we have sensed global EM investors' appetite to increase risk budgets over the next weeks may have been significantly reduced," analysts from Citi wrote in a note last week.The strategists note that the latest sentiment is a sharp contrast from a month ago, when investors were pricing in higher odds of a Harris win."There has been a significant change in investor sentiment, and investors' risk budgets have likely been changing as a function of that."Other factors, like rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a bond market sell-off, are also driving investors away from riskier assets. Investors are also expressing disappointment in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">China's stimulus measures</a>, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">initially fueled a rally</a> in EM stocks last month.

Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's stock rally could extend another 15% to 20%, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>The country's equity indexes have jumped dramatically since Beijing announced major stimulus policies.</li></ul>The blowout surge in China's stock market still has ways to go, with another 15% to 20% upside ahead, Goldman Sachs predicts.It's a standout call for a market that has already impressed in recent weeks. Despite the short length of the Chinese rally to date, the MSCI China Index is now up more than 34% year-to-date, surpassing gains for the US benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a>."The significant gains in the equity market have been driven by two key factors: the catalyst of more substantial policy measures and the starting conditions of an oversold and under-positioned market backdrop," Goldman said.That's a reference to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">wide-sweeping set of policies Beijing</a> introduced in late September, signaling the government's seriousness about tackling China's lagging economy. Measures included liquidity boosts, interest-rate easing, and reserve-ratio-requirement cuts, as well as mortgage-rate support.Looking forward, Goldman detailed four reasons to support its 15%-to-20% upside forecast for Chinese stocks.First, valuations have room to expand if Beijing commits to its policy support. Even though they have recovered from a low of 8.4 times forward earnings, valuations remain below a five-year mean of 12.1 times, Goldman said. It added that fiscal easing often corresponds with expanding valuations.Second, China's recent policy announcements likely clamp down on investment risk. Before Beijing delivered its forceful stimulus blitz, the market's implied cost of equity stood at elevated levels, indicating lingering concern of downside risk. China's commitment to its new policies should ease this measure.Third, earnings growth could pick up if the economy responds well to China's latest support measures. Goldman is optimistic in this outcome, estimating that the central bank's policy easing could uplift China's GDP by 40 basis points."Our economists currently forecast GDP growth of 4.7% and 4.3% for 2024 and 2025 but note that the announced and indicated measures reduce downside growth risks inherent in recent monthly activity data," the bank said.Fourth, equity positioning is light, leaving room for more market entrants that could push stocks higher, Goldman said.With risk appetite returning to onshore and foreign investors, market participation is rising from low levels. But even as traders snap up Chinese equities, their exposure still remains lax. For instance, mutual funds were 310 basis points underweight China at the end of August, Goldman said: the rally's jumpstart only deepens this figure.Still, while Goldman said efforts so far have been very stocks-positive, it's not yet willing to declare that a structural bull market has begun. It cited that China continues to suffer major challenges, from low consumer spending to an indebted property market. Some analysts have cited that even more support is necessary, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-stimulus-fiscal-consumer-support-deflation-stephen-roach-2024-10">especially fiscal stimulus</a>.

4 reasons why China's blistering stock rally has another 20% to run, Goldman says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Famed "Big Short" investor Michael Burry is benefiting from the recent surge in Chinese stocks.</li><li>Burry's Scion Asset Management has nearly half of its portfolio invested in Chinese tech giants like Alibaba.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">surge in Chinese stocks this week</a> should be music to the ears of hedge fund manager Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame.Burry began aggressively buying Chinese stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022, and it seems to finally be paying off.According to 13F filings, Burry's Scion Asset Management, which manages about $200 million, has about half of its portfolio invested in Chinese tech giants.Burry counts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/baba-stock">Alibaba</a> at his largest position at 21% of the portfolio, and he was still buying the stock as recently as the second quarter, boosting his stake by 24%.Burry also has 12% of his portfolio invested in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bidu-stock">Baidu,</a> and another 12% of his portfolio invested in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jd-stock">JD.com.</a> Altogether, Burry had about 46% of his portfolio invested in the three Chinese stock as of June 30.All three stocks have surged this week after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">China got serious about announcing stimulus plans</a> to revitalize its struggling economy.The People's Bank of China announce key interest rate cuts, lowered bank reserve requirements to stimulate lending, and said it plans liquidity support for the stock market.The country also encouraged its companies to start buying back stock.All of these measures and dovish speak from policymakers led to a massive surge in China's stock market this week.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-msci-china-etf-us46429b6719?miRedirects=1">iShares MSCI China ETF</a> is up 18% so far this week. Meanwhile, shares of Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com are up 19%, 18%, and 32% so far this week, respectively.According to data from HedgeFollow, which tracks and compiles data from 13F filings, the recent gains in China's stock market should mean Burry too is seeing some sizable gains in his portfolio, with Alibaba leading the charge.HedgeFollow estimates that Burry has an average cost per share of $78.83 for his Alibaba stake. Shares of Alibaba hit $105.25 in Thursday afternoon trades, representing an estimated gain of 34%.This assumes that Burry has not sold any shares since Scion's last 13F filing, which offers data as of June 30.Burry isn't the only hedge fund manager making money off of the recent surge in China's stock market.Billionaire investor David Tepper said on Thursday that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-tepper-buys-chinese-stocks-country-launches-fiscal-stimulus-bazooka-2024-9">it's a buy "everything" moment for Chinese stocks.</a>Like Burry, Tepper count Alibaba as his hedge fund's largest position, making up about 12% of his $6.2 billion Appaloosa fund. Tepper believes there's more upside to be had in Chinese stocks due to their depressed valuations."Even with the recent moves they're like on a flat-line low compared to where they have been in the past. And you're sitting there with single multiple PEs, with double-digit growth rates for the big stocks that trade over here," Tepper <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-tepper-buys-chinese-stocks-country-launches-fiscal-stimulus-bazooka-2024-9">said in an interview with CNBC</a> on Thursday.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry bet half of his portfolio on Chinese stocks. It's finally starting to pay off.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>David Tepper is growing even more bullish on Chinese stocks amid the nation's new fiscal stimulus measures.</li><li>The new measures include interest-rate cuts, liquidity support, and encouraging company stock buybacks.</li></ul>It's a buy "everything" moment for Chinese stocks after the country <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stock-market-bazooka-liquidity-stimulus-sparks-panic-speculation-2024-9">launched a fiscal stimulus bazooka this week</a>, according to billionaire investor David Tepper.In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Tepper outlined his bull case for China's stock market, which has been practically left for dead in recent months as it trades at the same level it did in 2007."I thought that what the Fed did last week would lead to China easing, and I didn't know that they were going to bring out the big guns like they did," Tepper said, referring to the Federal Reserve's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">jumbo 50-basis point interest rate cut last week.</a>That big cut is giving China's central bank some breathing room in implementing its own fiscal and monetary stimulus policies, according to Tepper.In recent days, China has cut key interest rates, announced liquidity support for its stock market, lowered bank reserve requirements, and even encouraged company stock buybacks."Encouraging buybacks of stocks. Ok, this is China. This is stock buybacks. Not only encouraging it, lending you money to do it," Tepper said.He added: "I took it that they did a lot, they exceeded expectations, and he promised to do more and more and more, and that's very strange language, especially for any central banker, but especially over there," referring to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">recent dovish comments</a> from People's Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng.Chinese stocks have responded to the stimulus measures with big moves higher. On Thursday, shares of large-cap China tech stocks like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/baba-stock">Alibaba</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pdd-stock">PDD Holdings</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tctzf-stock">Tencent Holdings</a> surged more than 7%.Even the broader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-msci-china-etf-us46429b6719?miRedirects=1">iShares MSCI China ETF</a> soared 8% on THursday and is up more than 16% this week alone.But Tepper believes Chinese stocks have plenty of room to run higher, even after the recent surges."Even with the recent moves they're like on a flat-line low compared to where they have been in the past. And you're sitting there with single multiple PEs, with double-digit growth rates for the big stocks that trade over here," Tepper said.As to whether steep tariffs from a potential Donald Trump Presidency would shake his bullish view on China, Tepper said it probably wouldn't matter because of the "internal stimulus" measures."Obviously this is incredibly good for very undervalued Chinese equities, especially when the government is encouraging buybacks," Tepper said.On US markets, Tepper said he is not following his buy "everything" mantra with Chinese stocks and is being more selective in buying US stocks.Tepper, who runs the $6 billion hedge fund Appaloosa Management, highlighted US casinos that have exposure to China, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wynn-stock">Wynn Resorts</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/lvs-stock">Las Vegas Sands</a>, as well as companies that are exposed to the power demand of the AI tech trade as potential buys."I don't love the US markets on a value standpoint, but I sure as heck won't be short, because I'd be nervous as heck of the setup with easing money everywhere, a relatively good economy, and China just doing massive stimulus coming in, so it would make me nervous not to be somewhat long the US," Tepper said.He added: "You can't be short the US."Tepper's biggest position as of June 30 was Alibaba, which made up 12% of his portfolio. He hinted that he's buying more of the stock."I have limits. I probably said a long time ago I don't go above 10% or 15%, well that's probably not true anymore," Tepper said.Tepper also owns shares of PDD Holdings, Baidu, the KraneShares China Internet ETF, and JD.com.As to how Tepper is hedging his bullish China trade, as some might expect a hedge fund to do, he's not."My counter bet is that I don't care," Tepper said.

Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper says he's loading up on Chinese stocks after the nation's stimulus bazooka

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's economy is in a rut, and it continues to weigh on its housing and stock markets. </li><li>Home sales for one of its largest developers crashed 57% year-over-year in August. </li></ul>Neither real estate nor China's equity market is helping the country climb out of its economic slump. While one of its leading property developers is fending off liquidation, stock market investors have a new reason for disappointment.A steep plunge in Chinese home sales is hurting Country Garden, one of the nation's leading real estate developers.According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-04/jpmorgan-abandons-bullish-china-call-as-us-election-stirs-angst?srnd=phx-markets">Bloomberg</a>, contracted sales in August dropped 57% from a year ago, compounding woes after a 72% drop in July.The country's real estate sector has been navigating a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-outlook-home-prices-slumped-beijing-property-crisis-real-estate-2024-4">crisis for years now</a>, as declining demand and little stimulus from the government have overburdened indebted property firms. In August, new home sales among the 100 largest developers dropped 26.8%, Bloomberg reported.Improving sales would have been welcome news for Country Garden, as it fights off a liquidation scare. The outlet said the firm is now considering a new restructuring for its yuan-denominated bonds instead, having struggled to fund delayed repayments on its debt.Bloomberg said that since the firm invests in smaller cities, Country Garden's downturn has been especially vicious compared to its peers: its sales plummet has more than doubled the average among top builders in the first seven months of this year.JPMorgan chief China economist Haibin Zhu told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/03/jpmorgan-economist-says-chinas-housing-market-crash-is-still-not-over-yet.html">CNBC</a> that home prices won't stabilize until 2025, if not later. The "housing market crash is still not over yet," he said.China's stock market has offered no reprieve either.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-04/china-s-earnings-setback-sows-fresh-doubts-about-stock-rebound?srnd=phx-markets">Bloomberg</a> separately reported that the latest earnings-per-share on the MSCI China Index contracted 4.5% from a year ago — the worst performance in five quarters. Meanwhile, 19% EPS growth among China's leading eight tech firms marked the slowest quarter since 2022.Tech earnings have plunged amid dwindling sector consumption, and analysts told the outlet that a turnaround requires greater support from Beijing.In one telling example, gloomy consumer outlooks caused the Temu parent company PDD Holdings to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/temu-parent-pdd-stock-down-declining-profitability-merchant-protests-returns-2024-8">tank 29% last week</a>. Baidu and Kuaishou Technology have also slumped amid warning signs from Chinese consumers.Outside of tech, the real estate and consumer staple sectors were the leading stragglers in the latest earnings season, Bloomberg said. Consensus EPS growth for MSCI China has now declined to 11%.

More pain for China as home sales crash for one of its largest developers and tech earnings growth falls to lowest since 2022

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nvidia stock could see a $298 billion swing in market value after its second-quarter earnings report.</li><li>Goldman Sachs notes options pricing data suggests a potential 9% move in Nvidia's stock in either direction.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a> stock could see a massive $298 billion swing in market value after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-earnings-preview-stock-price-artificial-intelligence-ai-investing-blackwell-2024-8">it reports its second-quarter earnings</a> results on Wednesday.That estimate is based on recent options pricing data, according to a Monday note from Goldman Sachs' trading desk.The potential swing in market value in either direction would equate to a more than 9% move in the $3.17 trillion chip maker's stock price.Nvidia holds the record for the biggest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jensen-huang-fortune-soars-after-record-day-nvidia-stock-price-2024-8">one-day market value swing at $330 billion,</a> which occurred in late July as the stock rebounded from a painful weekslong decline.According to the bank, if the company can report a solid quarter of growth with even stronger forward guidance, it could catch the stock market by surprise and lead to a big move."Can you imagine if NVDA beats expectations on Wednesday?" Goldman Sachs' trading desk, led by managing director Scott Rubner, asked."Info tech was net sold for the 4th straight week (13 of the last 16) and saw the largest net selling in 2 months as the sector was net sold in every region, driven by both long and short sales. The prime book is now under-weight Info Tech vs. the MSCI World Index by -9.7% - at the lowest level on our record," Rubner explained.In other words, stock market positioning suggests that most investors could be caught off guard if Nvidia rises after its earnings results on Wednesday."The bar for Nvidia this earnings season is a lot lower than it has been in recent quarters given fundamental selling in tech," Rubner said.Nvidia is currently the second-largest company in the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500,</a> with a weight of about 6.5%, so its results could have a big impact on the broader market.In fact, Interactive Brokers strategist Steve Sosnick highlighted just how integral Nvidia is to the rest of the market.In a note on Tuesday, Sosnick analyzed the 25 most active trades on the Interactive Brokers platform, and more than 70% of them have a connection to Nvidia.The top spot belongs to Nvidia, followed by Tesla, which is a key customer of the chip firm. AMD, Nvidia's closest competitor, is number three, and number four is a semiconductor ETF.Overall, of the top 25 most active trades at Interactive Brokers, Nvidia is connected to 18 names, according to Sosnick."We've gotten quite used to seeing NVDA atop the leaderboard most weeks, cementing its key role in investor psychology. Looking beyond that, it is quite clear that the company plays a crucial role affecting a wide range of other popular investment vehicles," Sosnick said.

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