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<ul><li><keyword id="54613" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="makemytrip">MakeMyTrip</keyword> share price jumped by 6.75% on Monday as the news of Moderna’s vaccine being 94.5% effective hit the market. </li><li>After Pfizer’s vaccine’s report of being over 90% effective, Moderna’s became the second positive vaccine news from the US within a month. </li><li>Major travel (airline and hotel) stocks in the US witnessed a strong rally as the vaccine revived hopes of recovery in the travel segment soon.</li></ul>NASDAQ-listed Indian travel giant MakeMyTrip saw its share price jump by 6.75% on Monday as the news of Moderna’s vaccine being 94.5% effective hit the market. <div type="image" title="Mmt." msid="79255510" hostid="261"></div> Vaccine news uplifts spirits After Pfizer’s vaccine’s report of being over 90% effective, Moderna’s became the second positive vaccine news from the US within a month. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/within-days-of-pfizer-results-russia-claims-sputnik-v-vaccine-demonstrates-92-efficacy/articleshow/79171485.cms">Russia’s Sputnik V too</a> has claimed that it has a 92% efficiency against the virus. Meanwhile India’s COVID vaccine contender Bharat Biotech also announced on Monday that Covaxin had entered phase III of the trial. All the positive vaccine news saw the US' major travel (airline and hotel) <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/travel-stocks-rally-after-modernas-vaccine-progress-lifts-hopes-for-near-term-reopening/articleshow/79248718.cms">stocks rally</a> as people saw it as a sign that travel will recover soon. The <a href="https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/dow-jumps-350-pts-as-moderna-says-covid-vaccine-94-5-effective-11605538218252.html">Dow</a> too touched record highs after the news about Moderna’s vaccine. Back home, India’s <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/air-travel-back-at-pre-covid-level-by-early-january-says-civil-aviation-minister-puri/articleshow/79254692.cms">aviation minister is hopeful</a> that air travel will hit pre-COVID levels in India by early January. "We opened civil aviation on 25th May, a good two months and two days after we had completely locked down, with 30,000 passengers a day. Two or three days ago, just before Diwali, we carried 225,000 people," said Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. MakeMyTrip is hopeful of faster <keyword id="9459835" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="travel-recovery">travel recovery</keyword> MakeMyTrip which posted its second quarter results on October 27 is also hopeful that a vaccine would bring travel back to normalcy. “While we are already seeing green-shoots of demand across different travel services, we believe business recovery would significantly accelerate once a vaccine becomes widely available,” the company’s founder and Chairman Deep Kalra had said during the call. With the travel opening up within India, MakeMyTrip has seen a gradual recovery. The company’s adjusted operating loss for the quarter stood at $12.9 million, which was significantly lower than the previous quarter's loss of $21.3 million. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Segment </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Adjusted Gross Margin </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Y-O-Y Change </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Air Ticketing </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$11.9 million </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">- 81.9% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Hotels and packages </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$5.5 million </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">93.6% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Bus ticketing </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$2.5 million </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">-85% </td></tr></tbody></table> While there has been a quarter-on-quarter recovery, MakeMyTrip still has a long way to go for recovery. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/indias-first-vaccine-candidate-covaxins-phase-3-trials-begin/articleshow/79249854.cms">India's first vaccine candidate - Bharat Biotech's Covaxin begins its Phase-3 trials</a>

MakeMyTrip shares soar as COVID vaccine progress from Moderna and Pfizer spark optimism of faster travel recovery

<ul><li>Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries declared its second-quarter earnings today.</li><li>Profit jumped 9.5% to ₹9,702 crore compared to year earlier even as management acknowledged a slowdown in consumption.</li><li>The share price of RIL had jumped over 12% in the last one month compared to the 4% rally in the benchmark index, Sensex.</li></ul>Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries declared its second-quarter earnings today. The net profit for the period between July and September 2019 jumped 9.5% to ₹9,702 crore-- the highest ever in the company's history. 
 
 
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 This performance came despite some softness in the refining business. Gross refining margin for the period came in at $9.4 a barrel, which will be a disappointment for the markets, according to analyst SP Tulsian who spoke to a television channel. 
 
 
 
 
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 The share price of Reliance Industries had already run up over 12% in the last one month and investors have priced a strong show from the company that was once an energy giant, and is now fast changing into a consumer business with its thrust on Reliance Retail and on telecom via Reliance Jio. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Reliance Retail's strong 27% growth in quarterly revenue would come as a surprise even for the company that did acknowledge a slowdown in consumption. Subscriber addition by Reliance Jio slowed, so did the average revenue per user, but the company managed to cut costs and make more margin out of its telecom business. These are some of the top highlights from <keyword id="907891" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Industries-earnings">Reliance Industries earnings</keyword>: 1. Revenue decreased by 8.4% to ` 94,446 crore ($ 13.3 billion) 2. Exports decreased by 12.1% to ` 53,161 crore ($ 7.5 billion) 3. Gross Refining Margin (GRM) of $ 9.4/bbl for the quarter 4. Refining Throughput of 16.7 MMT during the quarter 5. Petchemicals Production of 9.9 MMT during the quarter. 6. Reliance Jio'subscriber addition has been less than estimates but margin has improved sharply. 7. Jio reported a 45.40% rise in profit at ₹990 crore compared to the same time last year 8. The average revenue per Jio user was ₹120. 9. Outstanding debt at September end was ₹2.91 lakh crore ($41.2 billion). 10. Petrochemicals revenue fell 11.9% compared to the same period last year. "We continue to build our consumer businesses. The strategic partnership with Aramco highlights its value to all stakeholders. The petrochemicals will benefit from both rising demand in India and our feedstock," Chief Financial Officer Alok Agarwal said in his post-earnings webcast. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/reliance-industries-retail-q2-earnings-report/articleshow/71651677.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Reliance Retail surprises with a sharp growth of 27.3% despite slowdown</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/reliance-industries-retail-q2-earnings-report/articleshow/71651677.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Reliance Retail surprises with a sharp growth of 27.3% despite slowdown</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/reliance-jio-plans-made-more-money-but-added-fewer-subscribers/articleshow/71651933.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Reliance Jio added fewer subscribers in Q2 but made more money out of them</a>

Reliance Industries posts record profit-- retail shines despite a slowdown

<ul><li>The rise in profits was largely backed by a 43.22 per cent fall in its total expenditure during the period under review to Rs 48,284.06 crore.</li><li>Revenue from operations of the company, however, declined 41 per cent on a year-on-year basis to Rs 50,616.92 crore.</li><li>In a regulatory filing, the company said that the market sales of the company for the quarter ended June were lower at 7.53 MMT when compared to 11.11 MMT achieved a year ago.</li></ul> <keyword id="75662" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharat-Petroleum">Bharat Petroleum</keyword> Corporation Ltd (<keyword id="44555" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPCL">BPCL</keyword>), the highlight among the host of state-run companies put on the block by the government, has reported a 93 per cent increase in its standalone net profit for the April-June quarter at Rs 2,076.17 crore. During the corresponding period of last fiscal, the company had reported a standalone net profit of Rs 1,075.12 crore. The rise in profits was largely backed by a 43.22 per cent fall in its total expenditure during the period under review to Rs 48,284.06 crore. Revenue from operations of the company, however, declined 41 per cent on a year-on-year basis to Rs 50,616.92 crore. In a regulatory filing, the company said that the market sales of the company for the quarter ended June were lower at 7.53 MMT when compared to 11.11 MMT achieved a year ago. "The Average Gross Refining Margin (GRM) of the corporation during the quarter ended 30th June 2020 is $0.39 per barrel (April-June 2019: $2.81 per BBL)," it said. It said that the outbreak of Covid-19 globally and resultant lockdown in many countries, including India, had an impact on the business of the corporation. "Consequently, lower demand for crude oil and petroleum products has impacted the prices and therefore refining margins globally. Since petroleum products are covered under essential services, the refining and marketing operations of the corporation were continued during the lockdown period," BPCL said. During this quarter, there was lower refinery throughput and revenue from operations which was mainly due to lower demand of petroleum products, the company said in its filing. However, with the gradual reopening of the economy, BPCL expects the refinery throughput and revenue from operations will improve and will be at normal levels, post Covid-19 impact and removal of complete lockdown restrictions. "Management has assessed the potential impact of Covid-19 based on the current circumstances and expects that there will be no significant impact on the continuity of operations of the corporation, on useful life of the assets, on financial position etc. on a long term basis," it said. As announced last year, the company is up for strategic sale, wherein the government plans to sell 52.98 per cent in the oil major along with the transfer of management control. The response from prospective buyers, however, has not been as expected, largely due to the pandemic and the deadline for the submission of Expressions of Interest (EoI) has been deferred for the third time till September 30. The government's decision of strategic sale of the profit-making PSU, has, however drawn criticism from several quarters. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/heres-how-indias-74th-independence-day-celebrations-will-take-place-this-year/slidelist/77523536.cms">Here’s how India’s 74th Independence Day celebrations will take place this year</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/how-much-deloitte-kpmg-ey-and-pwc-accountants-and-consultants-make-from-entry-level-to-executive-roles/articleshow/77533447.cms">How much Deloitte, KPMG, EY, and PwC accountants and consultants make, from entry level to executive roles</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/a-dwarf-planet-between-mars-and-jupiter-has-a-salty-ocean-beneath-its-surface-making-it-a-contender-for-alien-life/articleshow/77495476.cms">A dwarf planet between Mars and Jupiter has a salty ocean beneath its surface, making it a contender for alien life</a>

Bharat Petroleum reports 93% increase in its standalone net profit for April-June quarter

<keyword id="19923397" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ONGC" source="keywords">ONGC</keyword> declared the highest-ever standalone net <keyword id="19933742" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="profit" source="keywords">profit</keyword> of Rs 40,526 crore in FY24, the company informed the exchange in a filing. The consolidated net profit of the company is also highest at Rs 57,101 crore in FY24. The <keyword id="21739636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-production" source="keywords">crude oil production</keyword> of the company has surged by 2.4 per cent quarterly to 5.359 MMT in Q4 FY24. However, the standalone gross revenue of the company declined 11 per cent YoY to Rs 1,38,402 crore in FY24 from Rs 1,55,517 crore in FY23. The standalone profit has surged yearly by 1.1 per cent to Rs 40,526 crore in FY24. The company also announced a total <keyword id="20047030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dividend" source="keywords">dividend</keyword> of Rs 12.25 per share with a total payout of Rs 15,411 crore. This includes an interim dividend of Rs 9.75 per share which is already paid during the year and a final dividend of Rs 2.50 per share recommended by the Board. The Crude Oil production of the company in Q4 FY'24 saw an increase of 2.4 per cent over Q4 FY'23 whereas <keyword id="20646431" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gas-production" source="keywords">gas production</keyword> decreased by 3 per cent. The company informed that it drilled 541 wells, the highest recorded in the past 34 years, comprising 103 exploratory and 438 development wells. ONGC invested around Rs 37,000 crore in <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> in FY24, compared to Rs 30,208 crore spent in the previous year. ONGC has also declared 11 discoveries (6 in on land, 5 in offshore) during FY 2023-24 in its operated acreages. Out of these, 6 are prospects (1 in on land, 5 in offshore) and 5 are new pool (on land) discoveries. The shares of ONGC gained more than 46 per cent in the last six months on the national stock exchange and were trading at Rs 280 at the time of filing this report. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/go-digit-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/110276113.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/go-digit-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/110276113.cms" target="_blank">Go Digit IPO allotment – How to check allotment, GMP, listing date and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/kolkata-knight-riders-vs-sunrisers-hyderabad-head-to-head-record-match-timings-and-more/slidelist/110274500.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/kolkata-knight-riders-vs-sunrisers-hyderabad-head-to-head-record-match-timings-and-more/slidelist/110274500.cms" target="_blank">Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad – head-to-head record, match timings and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/motorola-edge-50-fusion-vs-oneplus-nord-ce-4-price-specs-and-features-compared/slidelist/110197390.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/motorola-edge-50-fusion-vs-oneplus-nord-ce-4-price-specs-and-features-compared/slidelist/110197390.cms" target="_blank">Motorola Edge 50 Fusion vs OnePlus Nord CE 4 – price, specs and features compared</a>

ONGC declares highest ever standalone profit in FY24

<ul><li>The Competition Commission of India is probing into MMT and <keyword id="2808667" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="OYO">OYO</keyword>’s deal for an adverse effect on competition in the market. </li><li>There is a thin line indeed between businesses which want to share benefits and those who want to control the market. </li><li>With the Indian digital penetration, is it time to bring in a new era of competitive businesses in India?</li></ul><keyword id="54613" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="makemytrip">MakeMyTrip</keyword> and Oyo’s commercial agreement has brought a new problem at their doors – the Competition Commission of India. The <keyword id="47183" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="CCI">CCI</keyword> is now probing into their deal for a possible adverse effect on the market. The alleged dominance that they would enjoy is now under scanner. And prima facie, MakeMyTrip is identified as ‘dominant’ in the online travel market while OYO holds the same position in the hotels market. And the joint effect of their partnership could alter the way the market operates. “OYO has been prima facie found to be a significant player in the ‘market for franchising services for budget hotels in India’,” said the report. Both Oyo and MMT had begun their partnership in February 2018. In 2019 they renewed their partnership for five years. In an earlier conversation with Business Insider India, Deep Kalra, founder and chairman of MakeMyTrip, had said, “Oyo for us would be more a partner, because they are now on the supply side and the fastest growing hotel chain in the world. Like all other hotel chains, they also go direct, they aren’t selling other services. We have always seen competition in the market otherwise.” If CCI finds discrepancies, it could turn a precedent for several deals forged recently. Reliance Jio acquired music streaming app Saavn, which strengthened the latter’s position in the Indian market against competition like Gaana, Spotify and even the Airtel-backed Wink. As per an exclusive partnership, OnePlus phones come pre-installed with the Amazon app. There is a thin line indeed between businesses which want to share benefits and those who want to control the market. “There is a clear need of legal audit of all such agreements. Such partnerships should always and periodically be evaluated on the touchstone of AAEC. Unless the CCI establishes AAEC, it can’t bring a case against a party under section 3(4) of the Act,” said KK Sharma, Chairman, KK Sharma Law Offices &amp; ex-Director General and Head of Antitrust and Merger Divisions, CCI. We have a vertical relationship with MMT, says Oyo The Federation of Hotel and Restaurant Associations of India lodged a complaint against MMT and its acquired unit GoIbibo and Oyo Hotels and Homes. The complaint was against MMT-Go and Oyo’s alleged dominance in the market, predatory pricing. It also alleges that their commercial agreement has led to the presumable exclusion of other competitors on MMT’s platform. “Whether the commercial agreement between OYO and MMT entails preferential treatment to OYO and consequent exclusion of Treebo, Fab hotel and any other hotel chain and if so, the effect of the same on competition merits investigation,” the CCI order said. Oyo argued that it is not an online aggregator but a hotel chain which is listed on MMT and has a vertical relationship with the latter. “We will continue to cooperate with Hon’ble CCI’s investigation process as we review the complete order. We will actively engage with the Hon’ble Commission in this process,” said an OYO spokesperson.’ The CCI further said that any restrictive agreement which may lead to refusal to deal with some players or exclusive arrangement with some players, may have potential adverse effect on competition. “The problem is not merely because of there being an exclusive partnership. It is because of conduct much beyond this,” said Sharma. He further explained that the Commission has asked DG to examine violation of Section 3(4) of the Act. It means CCI has to establish that such conduct exists and if it does, if it can have an adverse effect on the competition. “Only after the above are established, can it be said that there is a violation of the provisions of the Act; and further only after the above are done, can the onus of proof move to the person against whom allegations are made,” said Sharma.

MakeMyTrip and Oyo are in trouble with the CCI, opening up a gray area for business partnerships in India

Getty Images/ Scott OlsonSeth Klarman, president and CEO of the The Baupost Group<ul class="summary-list"><li>Billionaire Seth Klarman's annual letter to investors was wide-ranging, touching on topics including private equity's pile of unused money, Modern Monetary Theory, WeWork, and foreign policy in the Middle East.</li><li>The 17-page letter seen by Business Insider revealed that the roughly $30 billion fund returned less than 10% in a year when the stock market surged by 30%. Klarman blamed value stocks' continued slump as well as a "few mistakes" that he didn't identify. </li><li>Klarman is not questioning his belief in value investing, writing that "major mispricings are eventually corrected - the share price and value of a business tend to converge - because short-term illusions are pierced and enduring characteristics become more apparent."</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prime">Click here for more BI Prime stories</a>.</li></ul>One of the world's most well-known value investors didn't see much upside from sticking to his guns in 2019.Billionaire Seth Klarman, the founder of Boston-based Baupost Group, posted returns in the "<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/baupost-seth-klarman-warns-bull-market-end-hoards-cash-letter-2020-1-1028837041">high single-digit[s]</a>" in 2019 while the broader stock market more than tripled that. But the underperformance has not shaken the "Oracle of Boston." And that's even after Steve Mandel's Lone Pine Capital told investors late last year <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lone-pine-just-told-investors-that-its-sticking-to-growth-stocks-2019-11">that value investing has been changed forever</a>. "Major mispricings are eventually corrected - the share price and value of a business tend to converge - because short-term illusions are pierced and enduring characteristics become more apparent," he wrote in a 17-page letter seen by Business Insider that touched on a wide range of topics including foreign policy, WeWork's ex-CEO Adam Neumann, and Modern Monetary Theory. A Baupost spokesperson declined to comment on the contents of the letter. <h2>The effects of low interest rates</h2>In November, fellow hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio argued at the Greenwich Economic Forum that low interest rates have allowed companies to sell "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-says-comments-on-interest-rates-and-corporate-earnings-2019-11">dreams instead of earnings</a>."Klarman went a step further, blaming low and negative interest rates for the widening inequality that has allowed populism to rise, and for the boom in private equity and venture capital money that fueled companies like WeWork. He explicitly linked Neumann's $1.7 billion WeWork exit package as an "epitome of capitalist excess."On unicorns in general though, he saw holes that are currently being filled by money that might not be around in an economic downturn. He named companies like Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, and Netflix specifically."Because of favorable terms offered to preferred shareholders, the common shares of many of these firms are overstated in value, sometimes dramatically so. A skeptic could make the case that this preferred-to-common adjustment is merely the tip of the overvaluation iceberg for these high-flying and often profitless upstarts," he wrote about unicorns that have been funded by venture capital.Klarman is not only concerned about seemingly limitless money flying around the private sector; he called Modern Monetary Theory, an economic theory supported by people like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-explained-aoc-2019-3">Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a>, "a new madness.""Running massive budget deficits in a period of strong economic growth puts the U.S. on the road to MMT and money printing without end, in service of a permanent prosperity that has always eluded mankind. MMT, in the hands of astonishingly short-term oriented and self-serving politicians, would raise the risk of out of control inflation, the loss of public confidence in money and, indeed, in government itself, and potentially accelerate the unraveling of social cohesion," he wrote.<h2>The Trump-'Big Bang Theory' analogy</h2>Klarman appears to have been a fan - or at least caught a few episodes - of CBS' long running sitcom "The Big Bang Theory." In the letter, he compared a constant target of his criticism, President Donald Trump, to an ongoing gag on the show, known as Anything Can Happen Thursday (in the show, Klarman explains, the characters decide to eat somewhere different on Thursday, when anything can happen.)"'Anything can happen' is not limited to Thursdays, and the subject isn't dinner but democracy, prosperity, global alliances, societal institutions, and truth itself. These days, literally anything can happen in foreign policy, immigration policy, cabinet appointments, and White House staff turnover. One day, the president is distracted by the size of his crowds; another day, it's a debate over who said what about the path of a storm or the demand to acquire Greenland from Denmark," he wrote.A longtime Republican donor before the Trump administration, Klarman donated heavily to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/opinion/sunday/seth-klarman-donations-trump-democrats.html">Democrats in the 2018 elections</a>. He still calls out Democrats in the letter, though, noting that "with Democrats and Republicans evidently focused largely on preventing each other from claiming victories or accomplishing anything, there is a ubiquitous sense that nothing can get done in Washington." He blames presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders for pulling the party too far too the left, calling proposals like a marginal tax rate of 70%, the Green New Deal, Medicare-for-All, and the "possible imposition of a wealth tax" impractical and unaffordable. "The left's response to the extremism of Donald Trump may be an equal and opposite reaction of extremism, in the form of an aggressive attack on the corporate sector and the wealthy without concern for the inevitable implications on economic growth and job creation." <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/future-of-retail?IR=T&amp;itm_source=businessinsider&amp;itm_medium=ctgr_bii&amp;itm_term=ctgr_leadgen&amp;itm_content=uber&amp;itm_campaign=future-of-retail-2"></a> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/whats-inside-a-clam-shell-oyster-mussel-2019-12">What's inside a clam?</a></h3>

Billionaire Seth Klarman blames low rates and 'capitalist excess' for his fund's languishing returns - and says we've only seen the 'tip of the overvaluation iceberg'

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Reuters/KhamLabourers work at Ford Vietnam car factory in Hai Duong, Vietnam</div></div></div>Here is what you need to know. <ol><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-trade-war-has-a-new-target-japan-2019-4">Trump's trade war could be heading for Japan</a>. Trade talks between US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Japan's economy minister Toshimitsu Motegi are set for Monday and Tuesday in Washington, with the US hoping to strike a deal on agriculture.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mmt-aocs-favorite-economic-theory-is-derided-by-imfs-lagarde-2019-4">The IMF derides MMT</a>. "We do not think that the modern monetary theory is actually the panacea," IMF head Christine Lagarde said Thursday at the International Monetary Fund's spring meeting in Washington, according to Bloomberg. "We do not think that any country is currently in a position where that theory could actually deliver good value in a sustainable way."</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/traders-holding-breath-for-evidence-of-earnings-recession-2019-4-1028106651">We could be looking at our first earnings recession in 3 years</a>. First-quarter earnings for the S&amp;P 500 are forecast to fall 4.2% year-over-year and second-quarter earnings are expected to slide 0.3%, FactSet analyst John Butters told MarketWatch. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/earnings-season-stock-market-forecast-for-recession-from-morgan-stanley-2019-4">There are signs earnings season could be a major disappointment</a>. "A lowered bar into the quarter does note mean the likelihood of a beat is greater," Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote. "The forecasts for (first quarter 2019) have been lowered substantially and we do not think we are going to see a beat big enough to lift index growth into positive territory."</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-ipo-documents-filed-what-could-be-biggest-stock-offering-years-2019-4">Uber files to go public</a>. Shares will list on the New York Stock Exchange and trade under the ticker UBER. The ride-hailing giant did not give a price at which it plans to list its shares. </li><li><a href="https://www.chevron.com/investors/press-releases">Chevron is buying Anadarko for $33 billion</a>. The deal will pay Anadarko shareholders 0.3869 shares of Chevron and $16.25 in cash for each Anadarko share.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/initial-public-offering-pagerduty-tech-unicorn-nyse-2019-4-1028104039">PagerDuty soars in its trading debut</a>. Shares of the cloud-computing company surged 59% in their New York Stock exchange debut on Thursday. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-chase-earnings-revenue-1q19-2019-4">JPMorgan kicks off earnings season</a>. The Wall Street bank is expected to earn an adjusted $2.34 a share on revenue of $28.4 billion, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Wells Fargo will also report on Friday morning. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/indices">Stock markets around the world were higher</a>. Japan's Nikkei (+0.73%) was out front in Asia and Germany's DAX (+0.55%) led the advance in Europe. The S&amp;P 500 was set to open up 0.45% near 2,901.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=04/12/2019&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3">US economic data flows</a>. Import and export prices will cross the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET and University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be announced at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield was up 4.5 basis points at 2.54%.</li></ol> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coffee-drinking-too-much-caffeine-body-drink-2019-4">What happens to your body when you drink too much coffee</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

10 things you need to know before the opening bell

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">AP/Eugene HoshikoJapan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga unveils the name of new era "Reiwa" at the prime minister's office in Tokyo.</div></div></div>Here is what you need to know.<ol><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-manufacturing-pmi-markit-2019-4">Things are looking up for China's manufacturing sector</a>. "China's manufacturing sector finished the opening quarter of 2019 on a positive note, with operating conditions improving for the first time since last November," IHS Markit said in a report released Monday. "Firms signalled slightly quicker rises in output and overall new work, while employment increased for the first time in over five years."</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-mission-to-control-the-south-china-sea-2019-3">China is using debt to control the South China Sea</a>. China's One Belt One Road project and the massive infrastructure loans associated with it are helping to weaken opposition to its claims in the South China Sea.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-new-era-reiwa-emperor-akihito-steps-down2019-4">Japan announces the name of the era under the new emperor</a>. Naruhito will become the Japanese emperor on May 1, beginning the "Reiwa" era.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-explained-aoc-2019-3">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a fan of MMT - here's what it is</a>. Modern Monetary Theory says governments who create their own money can spend freely because they can always print more money to pay off their debts. Find out why people are so interested in it. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-coming-says-signal-besides-yield-curve-albert-edwards-2019-3">There's a more ominous recession threat than the yield curve</a>. "Being the simple, unsophisticated soul that I am, all I believe the inversion of the yield curve tells us is that the Fed has raised interest rates considerably," Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards said in a note.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/initial-public-offering-how-unprofitable-companies-fared-2019-3-1028072181">Lyft goes public after being wildly unprofitable last year</a>. The ride-hailing app lost $911 million last year - see how other unprofitable companies fared after they went public. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jumia-the-alibaba-of-africa-is-getting-ready-to-ipo-on-the-nyse-2019-3">One if Africa's first unicorns is about to go public on the New York Stock Exchange</a>. Jumia, the Alibaba of Africa, last week set the price range for its initial public offering at between $13 and $16 a share. It will trade under the ticker "JMIA." </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/indices">Stock markets around the world were higher</a>. China's Shanghai Composite (+2.58%) led the gains in Asia and Germany's DAX (+1.22%) was out front in Europe. The S&amp;P 500 was set to open up 0.67% near 2,854.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">Earnings reporting is light</a>. Cal-Maine reports ahead of the opening bell.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=04/01/2019&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3">US economic data keeps coming</a>. Retail sales will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET before Markit US Manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing cross the wires at 9:45 a.m. ET and 10 a.m. ET respectively. The US 10-year yield was up 3.5 basis points at 2.44%. </li></ol> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2019-market-outlook-john-rogers-ariel-investments-on-fund-performance-whats-ahead-2019-3">The founder and CIO of $12 billion Ariel Investments breaks down how his top-ranked flagship fund has crushed its peers over the past 10 years</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A <keyword id="1174772" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="business-cycle">business cycle</keyword> is the periodic growth and decline of a nation's economy, measured mainly by its GDP.</li><li>Governments try to manage business cycles by spending, raising or lowering taxes, and adjusting interest rates.</li><li>Business cycles can affect individuals in a number of ways, from job-hunting to investing.</li></ul>A business cycle, sometimes called a "trade cycle" or "economic cycle," refers to a series of stages in the economy as it expands and contracts. Constantly repeating, it is primarily measured by the rise and fall of gross domestic product (GDP) in a country.Business cycles are universal to all nations that have capitalistic economies. All such economies will experience these natural periods of growth and declines, though not all at the same time. However, given the increased globalization, business cycles tend to happen at similar times across countries more often than they did before.Understanding the different phases of a business cycle can help individuals make lifestyle decisions, investors make financial decisions, and governments make appropriate policy decisions.<h2>Stages of a business cycle</h2>Think of business cycles like the tides: a natural, never-ending ebb and flow from high tide to low tide. And the same way the waves can suddenly seem to surge even when the tide's going out or seem low when the tide's coming in, there can be interim, contrarian bumps — either up or down — in the midst of particular phase.<div type="image" title="Business Cycle" height="3792" width="5000" msid="77793775" hostid="261"></div>All business cycles are bookended by a sustained period of economic growth, followed by a sustained period of economic decline. Throughout its life, a business cycle goes through four identifiable stages, known as phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough.Expansion: Expansion, considered the "normal" — or at least, the most desirable — state of the economy, is an up period. During an expansion, businesses and companies are steadily growing their production and profits, unemployment remains low, and the stock market is performing well. Consumers are buying and investing, and with this increasing demand for goods and services, prices begin to rise too.When the GDP growth rate is in the 2% to 3% range, inflation is at the 2% target, unemployment is between 3.5% and 4.5%, and the stock market is a bull market, then the economy is considered to be in a healthy period of expansion.Peak: Once these numbers start to increase outside of their traditional bands, though, then the economy is considered to be growing out of control. Companies may be expanding recklessly. Investors are overconfident, buying up assets and significantly increasing their prices, which are not supported by their underlying value. Everything is starting to cost too much.The peak marks the climax of all this feverish activity. It occurs when the expansion has reached its end and indicates that production and prices have reached their limit. This is the turning point: With no room for growth left, there's nowhere to go but down. A contraction is forthcoming.Contraction: A contraction spans the length of time from the peak to the trough. It's the period when economic activity is on the way down. During a contraction, unemployment numbers typically spike, stocks enter a bear market, and GDP growth is below 2%, indicating that businesses have cut back their activities. When the GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-a-recession" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the economy is often considered to be in a recession</a>. Trough: As the peak is the cycle's high point, the trough is its low point. It occurs when the <keyword id="6357558" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Recession">recession</keyword>, or contraction phase, bottoms out and starts to rebound into an expansion phase — and the business cycle starts all over again. The rebound is not always quick, nor is it a straight line, along the way towards full economic recovery. <h2>Business cycles vs. market cycles</h2>Though often used interchangeably, technically a business cycle is different from a market cycle. A market cycle specifically refers to the different growth and decline stages of the stock market, while the business cycle reflects the economy as a whole.But the two are definitely related. The stock market is greatly influenced by the phases of a business cycle and generally mirrors its stages. During the contractionary phase of a cycle, investors sell their holdings, depressing stock prices — a bear market. In the expansionary phase, the opposite occurs: Investors go on a buying spree, causing stock prices to rise — a bull market.<h2>Who measures business cycles? </h2>In the US, business cycles are defined and measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research (<a href="https://www.nber.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBER</a>), a private nonprofit. NBER's <a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles/recession.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Business Cycle Dating Committee</a> is responsible for determining the start and end of a cycle.NBER primarily uses quarterly GDP growth rates to identify a business cycle, but it will also look at other economic indicators, such as real income, retail revenues, employment, and manufacturing output. Analysts and economists often see what they call "co-movement" in these variables, meaning the different measurements rise and fall together.For example, if employment is up, production is likely up, as is consumer spending. Likewise, if employment is down, the other metrics are down and will eventually have an impact on GDP. <h2>How long does a business cycle last?</h2>Business cycles have no defined time frames. A business cycle can be short, lasting a few months, or long, lasting several years. Generally, periods of expansion are more prolonged than periods of contraction, but the actual lengths can vary. Since the end of World War II, the average period of expansion in the US lasted 65 months, and the average contraction lasted about 11 months, according to the <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF10411.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Congressional Research Service</a>.Most recently, the US hit a peak in February 2020, and before that was in a period of expansion that had lasted roughly 128 months, making it the longest in recorded history.The many variables in an economy fluctuate differently over time, causing shifts in the economy, and non-economic factors, such as natural disasters and disease, play a part in shaping the economy as well. "Essentially, market economies want to expand, but if they're hit by an adverse shock, they may contract," says Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Mellon Investments.In recent history, the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007 was one such shock, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was another. <h2>What factors shape a business cycle? </h2>From technological innovations to wars, a variety of things can trigger a business cycle's phases. But, according to the Congressional Research Service, the key influence boils down to the aggregate supply and demand within an economy — economist-speak for the total spending that individuals and companies do. When that demand decreases, a contraction occurs. Likewise, when demand increases, an expansion occurs. <h3>How supply and demand drives the business cycle</h3><ul><li>In the beginning: The expansion happens because consumers are confident in the economy. They believe that employment is steady and income is guaranteed. As a result, they spend more, which leads to increased demand, which leads to businesses hiring more employees and increasing capital expenditures to meet that demand. Investors allocate more capital to assets, increasing stock prices.</li><li>Getting overheated: The expansionary phase hits a peak when the demand is greater than the supply, and businesses take on additional risks to meet increased demand and remain competitive.</li><li>Scaling back: When interest rates rise quickly, inflation increases too fast, or a financial crisis occurs, an economy enters a contraction. The confidence that stimulated it quickly evaporates, replaced with dwindling consumer confidence. Individuals save money rather than spend, reducing demand, and businesses cut production and layoff employees as their sales dry up. Investors sell stocks to avoid a drop in the value of their portfolios.</li><li>Hitting bottom: During the trough phase, demand and production are at their lowest point. But eventually, needs reassert themselves. Consumers slowly start to gain confidence as production and business activity starts to improve, often spurred on by government policies and action. They begin to buy and invest, and the economy enters a new expansion phase.</li></ul><h2>How governments influence business cycles</h2>The fact that business cycles move in natural phases doesn't mean they can't be influenced. Countries can and do try to manage the various stages — slowing them down or speeding them up — using <keyword id="6357126" type="DEFINITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy">monetary policy</keyword> and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is carried out by the government; monetary policy is carried out by a nation's central bank.For example, when an economy is in a contraction, particularly a recession, governments use expansionary fiscal policy, which consists of increasing expenditures on projects or cutting taxes. These moves provide increased levels of disposable income that consumers can spend, which in turn stimulates economic growth. Similarly, a central bank — like the Federal Reserve in the US — will use an expansionary monetary policy to end a contractionary period by reducing interest rates, which makes borrowing money cheaper, thus stimulating spending, and eventually the economy.If an economy is growing too fast, governments will employ a contractionary fiscal policy, which involves cutting spending and increasing taxes. This reduces the amount of disposable income to spend, slowing things down. To employ a contractionary monetary policy, a central bank will increase interest rates, making borrowing more expensive and therefore spending money less attractive.<h2>The financial takeaway</h2>Even though they seem like something that only affects "the economy," business cycles have plenty of real-world implications for individuals. Recognizing the current cycle can influence people and their lifestyle decisions.For example, if we're in a contraction phase, finding work often becomes more difficult. Individuals may take up less-than-ideal jobs just to ensure they are making an income, and hope to find better positions once the economy improves. It may also influence spending and making long-term plans. "You're going to have to be cautious in terms of using your savings now because you may need them later," says Reinhart.Understanding the business cycle is also crucial for investors. Knowing which assets — especially stocks — perform well in the different phases of a business cycle can help an investor avoid certain risks and even grow the value of their portfolio in a contractionary phase.Granted, individuals can't do much on their own to affect a business cycle, and weathering its down phases can be tough. Still, it might help you sleep better at night knowing "it's a cycle and that we won't be there forever," says Reinhart. "Understanding the business cycle gives you at least a reassurance that there are a rebound and recovery to follow." <h2>Related Coverage in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-reference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Investing Reference</a>:</h2><ul><li><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-vs-depression" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Depressions and recessions differ in their severity, duration, and overall impact. Here's what you need to know</a></h3></li><li><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-q2-gdp-record-decline-coronavirus-pandemic-recession-lockdowns-economy-2020-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US GDP plunged by a record 33% annual rate in the 2nd quarter as coronavirus lockdowns rage</a></h3></li><li><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/how-to-protect-money-from-a-recession" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 steps to take to protect your money from a recession, according to a financial expert and bestselling author</a></h3></li><li><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-1929-depression-similarities-slow-recovery-ahead-socgen-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The recent stock-market crash and the Great Depression of 1929 share an unnerving similarity that suggests the recovery will be more painful than many investors expect</a></h3></li><li><h3><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-explained-aoc-2019-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MMT: Here's a plain-English guide to 'Modern Monetary Theory' and why it's interesting</a></h3></li></ul>

Business cycles chart the ups and downs of an economy, and understanding them can lead to better financial decisions

MakeMyTrip is a household name in most metros and large cities of India. People of India love to <keyword id="6354692" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Travel">travel</keyword> and MakeMyTrip is one of the preferred choices for them to make a reservation (for both airlines and <keyword id="6368036" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Hotels">hotels</keyword>). Recently, MMT announced <keyword id="6357455" type="EVENT" weightage="80" keywordseo="Funding">funding</keyword> of $15 million <keyword id="306629" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Innovation-Fund">innovation fund</keyword> for new entrepreneurs in the travel circuit. We got a chance to catch up with Rajesh Magow, <keyword id="170488" type="POSITION" weightage="80" keywordseo="co-founder">Co-Founder</keyword> and CEO-India, <keyword id="143717" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Makemytrip-com">MakeMyTrip.com</keyword> and he told us some interesting facts about the journey so far and why did the company decide to raise this fund. 
 
MakeMyTrip has grown by leaps and bounds. Can you give BI India readers a small glimpse of the MMT’s journey till date? 
 
MakeMyTrip.com was founded in the year 2000. Deep Kalra (Founder) conceptualized it with the idea to empower Indian travellers through choice, flexibility and transparency of pricing. The travel industry in 2000 had not achieved momentum yet. There were a couple of websites that offered air-tickets but none that could comprehensively claim to cater across categories (LCCs and full-service) and offer Best Deal and Lowest Airfare Guarantee. 
 
Upon launching the first version of the site in October 2000, we received a favourable response from the US. In India however, travellers were more inclined to research online, but make the actual buying decision using traditional modes of payment. We had to take a hard call to stop all marketing in India; on hindsight this turned out to be one of the best decisions for the company. By focusing solely on the NRI market, we managed to conserve precious marketing dollars while our competitors burnt their fingers in a pre-mature online market. 
 
After consolidating our position in the market as a brand recognized for its reliability and transparency, we launched our India operations in 2005. As the pioneer among Online Travel Companies in India, MakeMyTrip heralded a revolution in the way travel was purchased in India – and soon became the go-to website for booking travel. In 2010 we became the first Indian travel company to list overseas through a successful IPO on NASDAQ. 
 
Today, we are the dominant market-leader with 47% market-share (per a study conducted by PhocusWright in 2013). 
 
MMT like many others has started a venture fund, what was the reason behind it? 
 
We have announced the institution of a $15 million Innovation Fund primarily to support early stage companies/ start-ups in the travel technology space with a special focus on Mobile and IP-based companies. The fund will be focused on young and new ventures in the travel technology space for our market. 
 
This initiative is an additional prong of our inorganic growth strategy of pursuing M&amp;A opportunities in the travel technology space. We intend to purposefully go out and look for such companies and take early stage positions. 
 
What is MMT expectations from this venture funding? 
 
We are excited about the Technology talent in the global marketplace and how it can be leveraged to serve customer needs. We are hopeful that this initiative will encourage entrepreneurs building niche companies in the travel technology domain. 
 
What are the future plans for MMT besides this? 
 
We are already the largest travel company in the country and the largest eCommerce business, recognized for providing the best value-based offerings. In the mid to long-term, we intend to use our core strength i.e. technology to innovate, provide best-in-class service and delight customers. 
 
Rajesh Magow, Co-Founder and CEO-India, MakeMyTrip.com 
 
Top Image: Thinkstock

Rajesh
Magow From MakeMyTrip Is Excited About The $15 Million
Innovation Fund, Will Bring New Talent To The Indian Travel Industry

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Legendary investor Jim Rogers says this pandemic has likely triggered the epic market crash he has been anticipating for years.</li><li>Rogers expects the current rally to be nice and possibly last through the election in November. But he eventually expects everything to collapse for a while.</li><li>He calls the Federal Reserve's response to the coronavirus crisis "absolute madness."</li><li>Rogers notes that 100 years ago the UK was the richest and most powerful country, and says they lost that spot because they spent a lot of money and went deep into debt. He believes America is now setting itself up for the same fate.</li><li>When asked how he would design America's response to the economic crisis caused by this pandemic, Rogers responds, "I would abolish the Federal Reserve and resign."</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>Jim Rogers is the chairman of Rogers Holdings and is well known for the success of the Quantum Fund which he cofounded with George Soros. In an interview with Business Insider's Henry Blodget in 2017, Rogers said he expected the biggest market crash in our lifetime within a few years. Now years later, as we face the coronavirus crisis we talk to Rogers about whether this pandemic will trigger the correction he has been preparing for. Following is a transcript of the video.Sara Silverstein: Jim, we spoke to you a few years ago and you predicted the worst crash in our lifetime would come in the next few years. Is this the crash that you were talking about and what do you expect to see?Jim Rogers: Well you know, Sara, first I was surprised that anybody paid attention to that because in 2008 we had a very serious problem because of too much debt. Since then, the debt has skyrocketed everywhere, so it seems to me self-evident. The next one has to be worse than 2008. People seem to be surprised.Anyway, so yes, this is probably it. I'm sure that the rally is going to be nice. It already is a nice rally. You know, governments all over the world are spending huge amounts of money, printing huge amounts of money. There is an election in November, so the rally will probably be nice, but it's not over, Sara, it's not over.Silverstein: How far do you think the dip could go to the bottom of this crash?Rogers: Well, Sara, I have no idea. You should watch Business Insider if you want to know that sort of thing. I can tell you in history, bear markets go down 50, 60, 70% this is just history. This is not an opinion and many stocks go down 80, 90%. Some disappear. That's just the way bear markets work.It's not fun unless you're short or something like that. No, that's what bear markets do. If you're old enough to remember 2008 you can remember what happened to some stocks and some companies, and even gold collapsed for a while. Everything collapses for a while.Silverstein: So what is your advice to investors who are worried about how to position their portfolio?Rogers: My advice to any investor every day of their life is only invest in what you know. You yourself, don't listen to some guy you saw even on Business Insider, unless it's Sara, maybe. Don't listen to other people because when problems come, you won't know what to do and they might be wrong.So stay with what you know, and then you will know how to go through it. If you don't know anything, do nothing. Put your money in the bank and wait and watch the rest of us lose money.Silverstein: And you talk about -Rogers: Don't listen to anybody, Sara, if you are an investor in good times or bad times, stay with what you yourself know a lot about.Silverstein: And you talk about all the leverage that we have right now. That was a big problem in 2008, we created a lot of things to protect against that and protect banks from that. Are things just as precarious as they were then?Rogers: No, they're worse. They're much worse. Sara, in 2008 China had a huge amount of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending that money and helped save the world. Now even China has debt. China has a lot of debt and who's going to... Nobody's got any money saved up for a rainy day. Maybe North Korea. They don't have any debt, but they certainly don't have any savings either.Who's going to save us? You know who's going to save us, Sara? The Easter Bunny. That's who's going to save us. If you listen to Washington DC or London or Tokyo, the Easter Bunny is going to save us. Don't worry.Silverstein: That's very concerning. What is the fear of having everyone be in too much debt? It sounds like some people don't worry right now about the balance sheets of the countries. Is that something that we should be really worried about and what does the fallout from that look like?Rogers: Sara, throughout history it's a simple lesson. Again, this is not some opinion. Countries that get too deeply in debt and get overextended wind up deteriorating.In 1919, 1920, UK was the richest, most powerful country in the world. There was no second in 1920. Well, they started spending a lot of money, went deep into debt and they're not even in the top 25 anymore. Because they just went over the cliff and made a lot of mistakes.Everybody does it. It's not an opinion, it's a simple fact of history. But you know, Sara, one of the things that history teaches us is people don't learn the lessons of history. They just ignore history and go on as though everything is different now.Silverstein: How do you evaluate the Fed's response to the recent crisis?Rogers: Absolute madness. Incomprehension to me. If somebody had said 20 years ago, 30 years ago, that any central bank much less a responsible central bank could act like this, they would've stopped talking to you, you would've left the room. But it's happening and we're sitting here watching it. We know it's happening.These guys, their balance sheet after 2008 went up by 500%. This is a major central bank. Never in history, and now they're going to double it again. I mean these guys are going nuts. This is not good for... You have kids. I know you have. You're young. I can see you're young. You should be worried. Worried about your kids and you. I'm worried about you. I'm worried about about me and I'm much older than you. I'm worried about all of us. These guys are nuts.Silverstein: Would you have liked to have seen the Fed completely unwind its balance sheet and raise rates while things were good?Rogers: First of all, they should not have done what they did in 2009. They thought there was saving the world. If you spoke to them in their unguarded moments, they would say, "Yes, this is an experiment. We don't know. We hope this is going to work."Now we're all going to pay a horrible price for them because if in 2008 the Fed's balance sheet was $800 billion with a B. Now we're talking trillions with a T, T as in tango.No, this is all... I mean your kids, you, my kids, even me, it's going to be the same thing that happened to the UK in our lifetime.Silverstein: What is the motivation? What do you think is misaligned about what the Fed is doing right now? Why are they doing what they're doing if it's not right?Rogers: Sara, there's an election in November. You're on Business Insider. You know there's an election coming. Go over and ask Henry. He will tell you. There's an election coming up. What do you mean why are they doing it?Why do you think the Bank of Japan is doing them? The head of the Bank of Japan goes to work every day, cranks up their printing presses as fast as he can and starts buying stocks and bonds. It's astonishing what's happening in Japan. It's astonishing what's happening in America, but Japanese too? This is supposed to be a legitimate central bank and a legitimate country.Silverstein: And the Feds expanded what they are willing to buy. Do you think they could expand and actually start buying stocks?Rogers: Oh sure. Well you got to change a few rules first, but the Japanese changed the rules. They are now buying stocks. They were buying bonds and ETFs. Now they're buying stocks, having a wonderful time. The stockbrokers in Japan love what's happening.Silverstein: Are they doing it just to keep the markets afloat, is that the motivation to keep the stock market elevated?Rogers: Now, Sara, you know better than that. They're not going to say something like that, of course not. they're saying we're saving Japanese civilization and the Feds are saying we're saving American civilization for our children and grandchildren.They are ruining our children and grandchildren. No, they're not sitting there saying, "We're doing this for an election. We're not doing this to get votes." They're saving civilization as we know it.Silverstein: As an investor, how do you think about something like that? If fundamentally you think that something is overextended from a valuation perspective, but you know that the Fed is there with a safety net. What are investors supposed to do right now?Rogers: Well, I said before, there's a rally going on because central banks all over the world are playing this game and they've got a lot of money. They still have printing presses. We may run out of trees eventually, but so far there's still enough trees around to print money and I don't know what people should do. I will tell you that I expect the rally to go on for a while, not just in America and Japan or other places. Because everybody is behind this at the moment and so we can't, we should have a very nice rally. It could even turn into a bubble before this is over.If they've thrown caution to the wind, Sara, they're saying, you've heard of MMT [Modern Monetary Theory]. Well, this is it. It's here. Whenever there's a crisis, people come up with the craziest ideas, things that 10 years ago people said, "That's not even worth talking about." Now they're doing it. Come on, it's a crisis. There's an election coming.Silverstein: Where are you finding opportunities right now?Rogers: Well, I bought some Chinese wine stocks last week. Russian transportation companies, shipping companies.I'm looking, there are things, and if I weren't talking to you, I'd probably be buying Japan right now. The Japanese market went down a lot. They don't care about anything except getting the stock market up, so they're going to be up. Again, this is not sound, this is not good for 12 year old Japanese, but what do they care? This is going to happen.Silverstein: And how far would the US -Rogers: And China too, China is doing a much better, a less bad job than most people with what's going on now.Silverstein: How far would the US stock market have to drop for it to be a "buy" for you?Rogers: Well, I don't know. I mean, again, I might even be buying tonight depending on what I find and what I see.Some of the airlines, some of the transportation, some of the travel, restaurants, hotels. I mean these guys had been wiped out as far as the market's concerned. If I weren't so lazy, I could probably find some things right now if I weren't talking to you.Silverstein: And you think longterm travel stocks will come back?Rogers: Sara, look out the window. We're not going to ride the bus. We're not going to take the boat. I assure you we're going to take airplanes again. Japan Airlines is going to be around the rest of your life. I assure you, and most airlines will be around the rest of it. Not all, some have already started going bankrupt, but many will be.Silverstein: You mentioned Modern Monetary Theory, which basically says that it doesn't matter how big our balance sheet gets. It sounds like you don't buy it. Is that true?Rogers: That's what they say. They say you don't have to worry. You don't even have to sell bonds. Just get the printing presses out and... That's what they're doing in Japan now. Got the printing presses out buying stocks. They've already changed their rules. They were buying ETFs and bonds. Now they're buying stocks.Silverstein: What is it that people fundamentally misunderstand in your opinion, about that?Rogers: That someday you have pay the piper. There's no free lunch. Come on, you work for Business Insider. You go down and ask Henry if there's a free lunch. There's no such thing as a free lunch. We're all going to pay the price just like in 2009.These guys said, "We're going to try this. We don't know if it's going to work, but we're going to try it." Well, they made it worse and now they making it worse and worse and worse. Sara, I'm older than you. I know there's no such thing as a free lunch.Silverstein: You're in Singapore right now. Can you just give us some perspective of what things look like there from the coronavirus crisis standpoint?Rogers: Well, Singapore has done a very good job. Very few people have it. They closed down everything last week. Schools closed on Tuesday or Wednesday. My daughter's doing school from home now.No, everything is closed. If you go out, unless you have a very good reason, they come around and give you a ticket. They give you a summons. You better have a good reason to go out or they will be harsh.No, they've closed the place down and they think it's going to break the spine of the spreading. So far it's gotten worse, as you can imagine. Everybody's home giving it to each other now.Silverstein: You talk about my children and 12 year old children in Japan. What is your concern? What is this going to look like 20 years from now?Rogers: Compare the UK in 1919 to the UK in 2019, for instance. That will give you one example. There are many other examples in history. Somebody has to pay for all of this eventually. Yes, you can say, "No, don't worry. Modern Monetary Theory. We've solved the problem. We're just going to kiss the radio, kiss the computer and everything is going to be okay." It's not.Somebody's got to pay for it, we can't keep printing money. Print it, print it, print it, print it, but I assure you somewhere along the line, Sara, somebody is going to say, "Wait a minute, I'm not going to play this game anymore." I've seen this movie. I know this doesn't work. You ever been to Zimbabwe?Silverstein: No, I've never been.Rogers: Well Zimbabwe's a country in Africa. Wonderful country. Been ruined. But if all you had to do was just print up a lot of money. My goodness, Zimbabwe would rule the world right now.Silverstein: So what country is poised to come out on top? Is it going to be whoever can actually pay for what we're spending now?Rogers: Well, yes, that's the way it's always happened throughout history. That's why America replaced the UK as the most powerful country in the world. We weren't always on top. In fact in the 19th century people thought we were, Oh my gosh, they used to laugh at us. They thought we were... They thought "Those people are nuts." Well, you know the rest of the story. So there is a transition taking place. China's certainly done a less bad job than we have. Russia, even.To my shock, Russia may be doing a less bad job than what we are doing.Korea, because the 38th parallel will open up and that will give... When you take on a disaster, North Korea, it gives you lots of opportunities. They don't have debt. They don't have anything. So that when you have a new frontier opening up, that could be great opportunities for Korea.I'm looking for the same thing you're looking for, Sara, don't worry. I want to find out before Henry finds out, before you and Henry put it all over Business Insider. If I find it, I'll tell you after I buy, okaySilverstein: Okay, that's a deal. What do you think about the US's response from the stimulus package side or the relief package, depending on who you're talking to?Rogers: The cure can be worse than the disease. There is an election in November. They don't care about what happens after the election. They want to get elected, and that's what they do. That's their job. A good politician gets elected, whatever it takes to get elected. Doesn't care about your kids or mine.No, in my view, this is great for them. It's not good for the rest of us. We're all going to pay a horrible price just as the UK did. Go back and look at many successful countries that took the wrong path.Silverstein: If you were to design the US's response to the economic crisis that has been piled on top of this terrible coronavirus crisis, what would it look like?Rogers: I would abolish the Federal Reserve and resign. I would have to resign. I'd probably be assassinated or thrown out. I would not print huge amounts of money. I would let nature -Sara, in 2009 we had a horrible virus, the H1N1. It started in America. Nobody called it the America. We didn't close McDonald's. We didn't print staggering amounts of money. I mean, the world has been having viruses, epidemics since the beginning of time. 2003 there was a horrible virus. It was called SARS. We didn't close down the world. I'm not sure why. Maybe because the politicians got hold of this or the press got hold of them.No, this has happened before. 2009 McDonald's did not close. Delta Airlines did not stop flying and it was an American virus. Much less to the rest of the world.The world has adapted for hundreds of years. Human beings have a lot of resilience, but doing this to get politicians elected in November, not my idea of a good time. Yes, it's good for the market. It's good for stockbrokers. I tell you, move to Japan and become a stockbroker. They love what the Japanese central bank is doing. The Americans stockbrokers love what the central bank is doing, I happen to worry about young people. I worry about you. I worry about you and your children, and you're younger than I am. I worry about me and you're younger than I am.Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email <a href="mailto:covidtips@businessinsider.com">covidtips@businessinsider.com</a> and tell us your story.Get the latest <a href="/coronavirus-business-impact">coronavirus business &amp; economic impact analysis</a> from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is affecting industries.

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