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This is an as-told-to essay about a 25-year-old woman named Priya from <keyword id="19895037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bengaluru" source="keywords">Bengaluru</keyword>, who has decided to ditch the dating scene and go for an <keyword id="20037538" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="arranged-marriage" source="keywords">arranged marriage</keyword> instead. The story is based on a real conversation but has been edited for length and clarity. Being a hopeless romantic, I spent the better part of the last five years on and off <keyword id="20288570" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dating-apps" source="keywords">dating apps</keyword>. Now, I realise that for someone looking for their “forever person”, they can be a colossal waste of time. I matched and spoke with several people and even found people I felt that undeniable "zing" within the duration. But nothing ever materialised because these things weren’t just about chemistry; it was about aligning with someone who wanted similar things I did, and for some reason, I struggled to find that. In between shuffling from one app to another, I was in two serious relationships with people I met very organically. I was fully invested in these relationships and hoped they’d work out. But when the second one fell apart a few months ago, I decided that the dating apps would not be seeing me again. Instead, I would turn to the trusty backup plan for most Indians: an arranged marriage. <h2>Why an arranged marriage appealed to me </h2>The idea of an arranged marriage has always been a part of my life. My family has strongly believed in it, and watching close friends and relatives find happiness through this route only reinforced that belief. But it wasn't just tradition or family influence. After my last relationship ended, I realised I didn’t want to go through the exhausting process of convincing my parents to accept my choice of partner — something that's still a huge hurdle in my <keyword id="21185309" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-family" source="keywords">Indian family</keyword>. I didn’t want to risk unhappiness or conflict if things didn’t go smoothly. That’s when I decided I was ready for an arranged marriage. Once I made that choice, I stopped worrying about spending months or years with someone only to find we were on different pages once the initial excitement fades. Instead, I started focusing on what I wanted in a partner all along. For instance, I am looking for someone who has a decent job that pays decently. I can support myself, but I’d rather not marry someone who has too many financial responsibilities. I want a partner who will be my equal in everything and be supportive of my career choices — since I wish to work until retirement. Most of all, I’d like someone who shares my interests and hobbies. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="108165505" title="I want to be a tradwife. My twin sister&amp;#39;s conventional marriage convinced me." mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> <h2>Steps I took to start my journey </h2>I signed up as a premium member on two <keyword id="22342759" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="matrimonial-apps" source="keywords">matrimonial apps</keyword>. The process? Well, let’s say it’s not for the faint-hearted. I’ve swiped through about 500 profiles, filtering out the ones that didn’t match my expectations. The first thing you notice on these apps is the person’s picture and it’s only natural for that to influence your decision, much like a dating app. If you like their bio, you get down to talking about the more “practical” aspects of life, such as earnings, financial goals, responsibilities, whether or not they picture children in their future, etc. It was also crucial for me to find someone whose background and values aligned with mine. Caste was not an issue, but I wanted a partner from similar family background and upbringing to avoid potential personal or family conflicts later. And yet, none of this is even remotely enough. I did come across people who seemed fine on the surface but turned out to be condescending and rude the more I got to know them. Finally, of all the profiles I went through, I shortlisted 3 candidates that I wished to meet. While attraction and all these other aspects are important, what really matters is the energy you feel when interacting with them in person. As of now, I’ve met 2 of the 3 potential matches and I’m looking forward to meeting the third one (wish me luck). <h2>What will my life look like post-marriage? </h2>I don’t believe my life will drastically change post-marriage. Sure, I’ll have more responsibilities, but I’ll also have someone to share them with. My goal is to find a companion, someone I can explore life with, who’s comfortable with the idea of sharing everything, from household chores to dreams. A true partner. Of course, I’m scared — fear of the unknown is natural. I still don’t know who my life partner will be, and that uncertainty is daunting. But my optimism outweighs my fear. I believe that I’ll find the right person, and that belief keeps me going. <h2>Parting advice </h2>If I had any advice for someone entering the marriage "market" — because that’s exactly what it is — it would be to take this step only if you truly want it. While I am content with my choices, I have seen couples benefitting from modern dating, too. Secondly, don’t give in to societal pressure. Spend as much time as you can getting to know your potential partner. Indian parents tend to rush things and will likely push you to speed up the process. But remember, it’s your life. Stand your ground and make sure you’re comfortable with your choice. After all, this is about choosing someone who will walk with you through all of life’s ups and downs. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112522764" title="Arrange or love marriage debate is passe, people are now marrying their AI partners" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

I am a GenZ Indian woman who spent five years in the dating game. Here’s why I am choosing an arranged marriage now.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's war economy ins't in imminent danger of collapse, economist Vladislav Inozemstev said.</li><li>That's because Russia has adapted to the war and looks more stable than it did a few years ago.</li></ul>Russia may stand a better chance at sustaining its war economy than previously thought.That's according to Vladislav Inozemstev, an exiled Russian economist who thinks the chances of an economic collapse in the country have dwindled despite the chorus of experts who predicted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">grim</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-putin-inflation-labor-shortage-rates-2024-5">economic</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">future</a>.Inozemstev, who has been critical of Putin's regime and left Russia after being labeled as a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-business-national-security-treason-spying-2024-10">foreign agent</a>" in 2023, said the nation's trajectory looked similar to the Axis Powers in the 1930s, when the group of nations rose to prominence partly due to their "highly effective market economies," he wrote in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.memri.org/reports/russias-economic-prospects-2025-and-beyond">op-ed</a> published by the Middle East Media Research Institute. The comparison suggests that Russia will be able to sustain its war-driven economy for longer than many expected, he said, dismissing the notion that Russia was headed for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-economy-soviet-union-spending-workers-flee-imf-2024-2">Soviet Union-style</a> collapse."The war, formally an 'emergency,' has been rethought as a 'new normal' that can be waged indefinitely. Even though many experts are still talking about the aggravating slowdown in Russia, the Kremlin is mostly right: These days, the economy is the Russian dictator's reliable rear," Inozemstev said. "To conclude, I would argue that Russia seems to have become a long-term threat to the Western world whose chance of economic collapse is extremely small," he later added.Russia's finances appear to have stabilized since the early days of the war, when even the Kremlin <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-putin-moscow-gdp-outlook-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-11">admitted the economy was on the verge of collapse</a>.Federal revenue has exceeded expectations for the past several years, Inozemstev noted, rising 28% on an annual basis from the months of January and October, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/107508/">Interfax</a>. Russia also posted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-records-budget-surplus-01-gdp-jan-sept-2024-2024-10-09/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20Oct%209%20(Reuters),Finance%20Ministry%20said%20on%20Wednesday.">small budget surplus</a> through the first nine months of the year and is estimating only a small budget deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2025, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.Russia's economy has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">held up</a> partly due to its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">hefty war spending</a>, experts have said, which has boosted growth despite soaring <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">inflation</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">high interest rates</a>, and a labor market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">short of millions of workers</a>.Russia has also taken measures to boost business activity, Inozemstev said, such as by not hiking taxes for entrepreneurs and self-employed workers, while implementing subsidized loan programs for businesses. That means many businesses are sheltered from the pain of higher borrowing costs — and they could actually benefit from the surge in inflation in Russia, which could raise profits, he added.Bank deposits from Russian citizens and corporations, meanwhile, have swelled 54% since 2022, according to central bank data. Russia's war economy also looks to have gained the acceptance of the Russian people, who are benefiting from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-economy-boosts-wages-salaries-beat-inflation-labor-crunch-2024-2">higher wages</a> amid the nation's severe worker shortage. It's another key factor that makes Russia's economy likey more stable than many have thought, Inozemstev said."The economy, I would argue, is now undergoing another wave of adaptation to the changing conditions," Inozemstev wrote. "The people realize that the 'war economy' has substituted the anemic economic condition of the 2010s."Inozemstev said he expected Russia's economy to continue to grow in 2025 and beyond, forecasting 2%-2.5% GDP growth next year. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">International Monetary Fund</a> has said it is expecting Russia's economy to expand by 3.6% in 2024.

The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long term, economist says

A new study by <keyword id="5069783" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Centre-for-Chronic-Disease-Control" source="Orion">Centre for Chronic Disease Control</keyword>, India (CCDC) on cardiovascular risk reduction in South Asia has demonstrated significant long-term benefits of a multi-faceted quality improvement (QI) strategy, comprising of task sharing, and clinical decision support software (CDSS) with electronic health records, in managing type-2 diabetes in India and Pakistan. The study, published in the prestigious journal PLOS Medicine, highlights the sustained impact of QI interventions on <keyword id="21411276" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="diabetes-care" source="keywords">diabetes care</keyword> and associated complications over a median follow-up period of 6.5 years. The burden of diabetes Diabetes control remains a global challenge, leading to severe complications such as <keyword id="22908" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heart-disease" source="Orion">heart disease</keyword>, <keyword id="25191" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stroke" source="Orion">stroke</keyword>, <keyword id="16753" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blindness" source="Orion">blindness</keyword> or visual impairment, and kidney and nerve damage. LMICs are often faced with challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and trained healthcare staff with digital literacy. In that respect, the study's findings are crucial for integrating care models sustainably and identifying relevant organizational barriers. Previous studies from high-income countries showed improvements in diabetes care, but their long-term impact on vascular complications and mortality was unclear. This study aimed to address the critical gap in data regarding the long-term effectiveness of QI strategies and their impacts on vascular complications in LMICs. Professor Nikhil Tandon, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, and senior author of the study explained the relevance of these findings in the context of national efforts to combat non-communicable diseases (NCDs). He said, "The <keyword id="22511956" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Programme-for-NCDs" source="keywords">National Programme for NCDs</keyword> [NP-NCDs] operationalized by the Government of India has already a functional portal which provides an electronic health record functionality. Integrating the CDSS in this portal will provide significant incremental benefit to the impact of the National Programme, and bolster governmental efforts to battle the scourge of NCDs including diabetes and hypertension." Speaking about the findings, Prof. (Dr) Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Executive Director, CCDC, and one of the study authors, said, "Through the trial, we've demonstrated that a sustained quality improvement strategy can significantly enhance diabetes care and reduce complications in South Asia. For every 13 patients treated with this strategy, one major adverse cardiovascular event like heart attacks or strokes- or a microvascular event -like eye disease or decline in kidney function- was prevented, showcasing its profound impact on patient outcomes." Professor MK Ali, William H. Foege Distinguished Professor of Global Health, Emory University and one of the key authors of this article, said, "This study is an exemplar of trans-national collaboration for benefits of both, the global south and global north." Study Design and Findings The randomized clinical trial included 1,146 patients with poorly controlled type 2 diabetes across ten outpatient diabetes clinics from January 2011 through September 2019. Participants were randomized to receive either the QI strategy, which involved trained non-physician care coordinators and a clinical decision support software (CDSS) integrated into the electronic health record form, for physicians, or the usual care. Some of the key findings from the study include: <ul><li>At 6.5 years, patients in the QI strategy group were nearly twice as likely to achieve and maintain target levels for HbA1c (&lt;7%), systolic blood pressure (&lt;130mmHg), and LDL-cholesterol (&lt;100mg/dl), compared to the usual care group. </li><li> The incidence of first microvascular complications, such as diabetic eye disease, decline in kidney function, and nerve pain was notably 32% lower in the QI group. </li><li>There was a significant 28% reduction in the combined occurrence of microvascular and macrovascular events in the QI group.</li></ul> Importantly, these benefits were sustained only in clinics that continued the QI strategy for 6.5 years. With diabetes accounting for one in seven deaths in South Asia, the study provides unique insights into the sustainability of QI strategies in achieving diabetes care goals in low- and middle-income (LMICs) and the effects of these improvements on reducing vascular complications and diabetes-related deaths.

CCDC study reveals multi-pronged diabetes care improves patient outcomes in India, Pakistan

The government's decision to remove <keyword id="22142879" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indexation-benefit" source="keywords">indexation benefit</keyword> on sale of old property will result in huge <keyword id="22544904" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflow-of-black-money" source="keywords">inflow of black money</keyword> in <keyword id="19895040" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="real-estate" source="keywords">real estate</keyword> and investments in the sector will go down, AAP Rajya Sabha member <keyword id="19934326" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Raghav-Chadha" source="keywords">Raghav Chadha</keyword> said on Thursday. Asking the government to roll back the proposal, Chadha, while taking part in the discussion on the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25, said people will never be able to buy their "dream homes". "Restore indexation on <keyword id="20584761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="long-term-capital-gains" source="keywords">long-term capital gains</keyword>. Throughout the world, to woo investors to invest they are incentivised. In this country, by removing indexation we are disincentivising the investor class," he said, adding that removing indexation is not imposing <keyword id="19987671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax" source="keywords">tax</keyword> but it is equivalent to "penalising investors". He said as a result of the step proposed by <keyword id="19956758" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Minister" source="keywords">Finance Minister</keyword> Nirmala Sitharaman in the Budget 2024-25, individuals selling old properties will incur higher tax outgo. "If you do not bring back indexation three things will happen in this country. First, <keyword id="19895437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment" source="keywords">investment</keyword> in real estate will go down and people will never be able to buy their 'dream homes'," Chadha asserted. He further said there will be undervaluation of property deals, people will buy properties at 'circle rates' and will never disclose the real value of the property. "Third, there will be a huge inflow of <keyword id="20592248" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="black-money" source="keywords">black money</keyword> if you don't roll back this decision to withdraw indexation," he said. In the Union Budget 2024-25, the government proposed reducing the long-term capital gains tax on immovable properties to 12.5 per cent from 20 per cent, but removed the indexation benefits to adjust for inflation. As per the Memorandum to the Union Budget, with rationalisation of rate to 12.5 per cent, indexation available under Section 48 of the Income Tax Act has been proposed to be removed for calculation of any long-term capital gains, which is presently available for property, gold and other unlisted assets. Chadha also highlighted the high tax burden faced by common people and asked for a comprehensive review of both direct and indirect taxes. "We impose taxes like the Europeans do, to get services like sub-Saharan countries," he added. Taking part in the discussion, Debashish Samantaray of the BJD said the central government has given a raw deal to all eastern states like Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal in the Budget. He charged that in spite of Odisha giving 20 seats to the BJP, there was hardly anything for the state in the Union Budget. He noted that "regional aspiration should be addressed", and asked the central government to treat all states as equal. RJD's Sanjay Yadav attacked the government stating the Budget had nothing for the poor and marginalised and only catered to the rich and powerful. He noted that his party has been demanding special category status for Bihar for a very long time. Yadav said instead of dividing people on the basis of religion and caste, the government should work towards generating employment in the country. Medha Vishram Kulkarni of BJP and Rajani Ashokrao Patil of INC also participated in the debate. C V Shanmugham of AIADMK said allocation in the Budget does not significantly address the pressing needs of Tamil Nadu's infrastructure, health care, Social justice and education. The government has mentioned 76 projects in Tamil Nadu, but most of them are pre-existing ones getting a facelift. Moreover, in the Budget, no help in flood mitigation was provided, despite the state being prone to cyclones. There is no mention of a linkage of Kaveri and Godawari in the Budget, he said. Samirul Islam of AITC said this Budget is anti-people, anti-poor and anti-Bengal. It only satisfies Bihar and Andhra Pradesh's allies and is to save the government. "The Budget has deprived Bengal," he said. It has also ignored the people, especially the unorganised sector. 83 per cent of India's workforce is employed by unorganised sectors and failed to announce a comprehensive scheme for them and migrant workers, he said. M Mohamed Abdulla of the DMK said the Budget has provoked a constructive debate and disappointment in Tamil Nadu, a state known for its economic contributions. Tamil Nadu expected support and recognition in the budgetary allocations, but received nothing. The government is supposed to represent the people of the country as a whole. However, it is very unfortunate and unfair to see unequal distribution to the state governments, especially for the non-BJP ruled states like Tamil Nadu which provides the highest tax for the government, he said.

Removal of indexation benefit will lead to huge inflow of black money in real estate: Raghav Chadha

The <keyword id="19903456" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Income-Tax-department" source="keywords">Income Tax department</keyword> on Wednesday said 'substantial <keyword id="20138064" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="tax-savings" source="keywords">tax savings</keyword>' are expected for a vast majority of taxpayers due to reduction in the <keyword id="22526761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="long-term-capital-gains" source="keywords">long term capital gains</keyword> <keyword id="45031" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax" source="Orion">tax</keyword> (LTCG) rate in the <keyword id="19895040" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate" source="keywords">real estate</keyword> sector. The Budget has reduced tax rates on capital gains earned from sale of house properties held for long term, but has removed the <keyword id="22142879" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indexation-benefit" source="keywords">indexation benefit</keyword> available to taxpayers. The LTCG has been reduced from 20 per cent with indexation benefit to 12.5 per cent without indexation for the real estate sector. The indexation benefit allowed taxpayers to compute gains arising out of sale of <keyword id="801267" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-assets" source="Orion">capital assets</keyword> after adjusting inflation. In a post on X, the income tax department said the nominal real estate returns are generally in the region of 12-16 per cent per annum, much higher than inflation. "The indexation for inflation is in the region of 4-5 per cent, depending on the period of holding. Therefore, substantial tax savings are expected to a vast majority of such taxpayers," it said. Giving a comparison of benefits based on the holding period of the real estate property, the I-T department said the new <keyword id="22422932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-rate" source="keywords">tax rate</keyword> without indexation is beneficial in most cases. For property held for five years, the new regime is beneficial when property has appreciated 1.7 times or more, while for a property held for 10 years, it is beneficial when the value has increased 2.4 times or more. For a property purchased in 2009-10, if value has increased to 4.9 times or more, it is beneficial, it said. "From the above examples, it is clear that only where returns are low (less than about 9-11 per cent per annum) that the earlier tax rate is beneficial, but such low returns in real estate are unrealistic and rare," the I-T department said. As per the changes brought in the 2024-25 Budget, the government has retained the indexation benefit for taxpayers on properties bought or inherited before 2001. The changes in the tax rate have been made effective from July 23, 2024.

Majority of taxpayers to have substantial tax savings due to reduction of long term capital gains on real estate: IT Dept

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Real Estate Investment

Meta earnings live updates: Wall Street bullish on the firm's long-term prospects; analysts watching for AI guidance

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Trump election win will spur a Chinese stock sell-off that will then offer a buying opportunity, an equity strategist said.</li><li>Trump's track record shows he is not as anti-China as feared, Christopher Wood of Jefferies said.</li></ul>A presidential victory for Donald Trump will trigger a sell-off in Chinese stocks that would then create a buy-the-dip opportunity, Christopher Wood of Jefferies said.In a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-21/jefferies-wood-buy-china-stocks-dip-if-trump-wins-video">Bloomberg TV interview</a>, the global head of equity strategy said investors are excessively concerned by the Republican candidate's loud opposition to Beijing. He's far less pessimistic.While Trump has asserted that he will levy a 60% tariff rate on all Chinese imports to the US under his administration — part of a broader pledge to impose universal duties on all foreign products — Wood says it's largely bluster.He says critics are not paying attention to Trump's track record with China. In his view, the former president isn't likely to raise tariffs as much as he touts."Bottom line, if Donald Trump's elected and Chinese stocks collapse, that's an opportunity to add to China," he outlined.He continued: "People have forgotten that Donald Trump did the big trade deal with China in January 2020. A trade deal was done, and it was all hunky dory, and Donald Trump was going to run on that presidential campaign as I'm the guy who's negotiated the best trade deal with China since WTO."The agreement effectively <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/02/15/1079761270/china-promised-trump-a-better-deal-for-america-it-didnt-actually-deliver">capped further escalation to the 2018 trade war</a> between the US and China, requiring that Beijing buy an additional $200 billion of US exports.But that past precedent also shows that Trump is willing to negotiate with Beijing. For instance, he suggested that China would accept higher duties if Trump could relax restrictions on advanced US semiconductor technology. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-us-chip-export-restrictions-nvidia-ai-2024-8">Chip export controls</a> have increased on chips in recent years amid a rising concern for national security."[Trump's] not one of these national security guys in Washington who believe China is a threat to US hegemony," Wood said. "In fact, he's the opposite"Trump would likely view increased semiconductor trade as benefitting US business, as a cut-off Chinese market has already <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-china-competition-chip-makers-ai-huawei-2024-5">proven a challenge</a> for some leading chipmakers, such as Nvidia.

A Trump win will fuel a long-term buying opportunity in the Chinese market, stock chief says

A complete timeline of Katy Perry and Orlando Bloom's relationship and long-term engagement

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for signs of a potential peak in the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>The secular bull market, which began in 2009, is in a mature stage according to NDR's Tim Hayes.</li></ul>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> in its 15th year of a secular bull market that started in 2009, Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for warning signs of a potential peak.In a Friday note, NDR chief global investment strategist Tim Hayes said the secular bull rally is in its mature stage, so investors should keep an eye out for warning signs like sentiment extremes."What will warn that it's ending? The answer comes down to sentiment — so much positive news for so long that it has become the new normal," Hayes said.He added: "The risk is that the lack of risk aversion would leave investors exposed to a degree of sustained macro deterioration yet to be experienced since the bull got underway."Hayes isn't calling for an imminent peak in the stock market, especially with falling interest rates historically acting as a tailwind for stock prices, but he's aware that it could happen."The last two secular bulls lasted 24 years (1942 - 1966) and 18 years (1982 - 2000). But with the secular bull mature, we're watching out for signs that it may be at risk," Hayes said.The first warning sign of a near-term peak in the stock market is worsening breadth among the underlying issues of the US stock market.In other words, if only a handful of companies drive the stock market higher, that would be a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-broadens-small-caps-another-win-for-bulls-2024-7">bad sign,</a> as it was at the secular top in 2000.Investors don't have to worry about that signal flashing just yet, with recent data showing a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rare-bull-signal-perfect-track-record-just-flashed-stock-market-2024-9">surge in market breadth.</a>Extreme valuations would be another warning sign to watch for, according to Hayes, who added that high valuations price in a perfect macro environment, and if something goes wrong, those valuations can fall apart rather quickly."Expensive valuations appear justified when earnings growth is coming through, but that also leaves the market vulnerable when earnings turn lower," Hayes said.Long-term peaks in the stock market also typically occur when earnings growth and economic growth hit extreme levels, as the other side of that boom is typically a swift deceleration in growth.The secular stock market peaks of 1929, 1966, and 2000 all coincided with a peak in S&amp;P 500 earnings growth, "after which prices dropped on the growing realization that the valuations were not justified," Hayes said.While valuations and earnings growth are currently at high levels, they could have more room to grow, according to the note."The current level of earnings growth has yet to reach its levels at the peaks in 1929 and 2000 but has already closed in on its levels of 1966," Hayes said.He added: "For a downturn in earnings growth, we would expect to see a downturn in economic growth."Finally, Hayes said investors should keep an eye on bond yields and commodities, as they will reflect a potential rebound in inflation. And a rebound in inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, would be an unwelcome warning sign for the current bull rally in stocks."If that would start to change with a severe cyclical bear, the secular bear warnings would strengthen, and we would be likely to see reversals from extremes in valuations, earnings growth, and economic performance," Hayes concluded.

You Searched For "Long term" and got 10 results

I am a GenZ Indian woman who spent five years in the dating game. Here’s why I am choosing an arranged marriage now.

Ashmita Gupta

The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long term, economist says

Jennifer Sor

CCDC study reveals multi-pronged diabetes care improves patient outcomes in India, Pakistan

ANI

Removal of indexation benefit will lead to huge inflow of black money in real estate: Raghav Chadha

PTI

Majority of taxpayers to have substantial tax savings due to reduction of long term capital gains on real estate: IT Dept

PTI

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Real Estate Investment

Meta earnings live updates: Wall Street bullish on the firm's long-term prospects; analysts watching for AI guidance

Jennifer Sor

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