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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Labour Party has triumphed in the UK general election.</li><li>Prime Minister Rishi Sunak conceded defeat to the Labour Party chief, Keir Starmer.</li></ul>The Tories are out, and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-teeters-far-right-uk-opposite-keir-starmer-labour-tories-2024-7">Labour Party is back in power in</a> the UK.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/keir-starmer-mentored-barack-obama-uk-election-new-prime-minister-2024-7">Keir Starmer</a> officially became Britain's new prime minister on Friday after a meeting with King Charles at Buckingham Palace.It came hours after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-oliver-right-conservative-party-got-wiped-out-polls-2024-7">Rishi Sunak</a>, the Conservative Party leader, conceded defeat in Thursday's general election."The Labour Party has won this general election, and I have called Keir Starmer to congratulate him on his victory," Sunak <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-07-04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?cursorId=66876F7D688C0000">told</a> reporters early Friday morning in the UK.<div type="image" title="King Charles speaks with Keir Starmer during an audience at Buckingham Palace." height="3472" width="4900" msid="111516343" hostid="261"></div>"The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight," he added. "There is much to learn and reflect on, and I take responsibility for the loss."Starmer's party obtained a landslide victory against Sunak's, winning at least 412 seats as of press time, per Bloomberg. A party needs to obtain only 326 out of the 650 seats to form a simple majority.The watershed election marks the Labour Party's stunning return to power, as it has been out of government since 2010."A mandate like this comes with a great responsibility," Starmer said in his victory speech. "The fight for trust is the battle that defines our age."Starmer also said in his victory speech that his party planned to govern as a "changed Labour Party.""I don't promise you it will be easy," he said. "Changing a country's not like flicking a switch. It's hard work. Patient work. Determined work. And we will have to get moving immediately."The rise of Reform UK split the rightwing vote, helping Labour to victory. On Truth Social, Former US President Donald Trump congratulated Reform leader Nigel Farage for his "big WIN."<h2 id="39e3481a-44db-441e-8ce5-bb39f0dfe0f9">Starmer spent more than a decade rebuilding Labour and sought advice from Obama</h2>Labour's landslide victory bucks the trend of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-teeters-far-right-uk-opposite-keir-starmer-labour-tories-2024-7">far-right parties sweeping Europe</a>.Starmer, a former lawyer, joined Labour in 2015 and became the party's leader in 2020.He spent more than a decade reshaping the party and seeking guidance from world leaders on how to bring it back to power.One person who had a strong influence on Starmer was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/keir-starmer-mentored-barack-obama-uk-election-new-prime-minister-2024-7">Barack Obama</a>, who served as US president from 2009 until 2017. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/12/barack-obama-gives-tips-to-keir-starmer-and-david-lammy-on-how-labour-can-regain-winning-ways">The Guardian</a> reported in 2021 that the pair were involved in two hours' worth of private talks where they discussed how to bring center-left parties back to power.Speaking on the "<a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/keir-starmer-international-uk-labour-leader-puts-the/id1202281739?i=1000628653155">Power Play</a>" podcast in September, Starmer said he speaks to Obama frequently and sometimes seeks his political advice."It is always useful to test my ideas on people who won elections, people who've taken difficult decisions in power because that helps me think about how we might approach some of the decisions we might have to take if we do win that election," he said.Starmer also sought Obama's advice during the election campaign. Labour's David Lammy — who is said to have first introduced Obama and Starmer — told Politico's "Power Play" podcast that Obama encouraged Starmer to be more authentic and open up about his family and personal life."In terms of his leadership style, it's had an impact," political journalist Kitty Donaldson told Business Insider."Obama is quite laid back. This campaign has been more laid back than we have seen, and he seemed to enjoy going up and down the country speaking to people."

The Labour Party is back in power in the UK after 14 years

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Pandemic-fueled inflation seems to be spurring voters to kick out leaders.</li><li>Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere.</li></ul>From London to Tokyo, Seoul to Cape Town, 2024 has been a year of sharp election swings. Now you can add Washington D.C. to the list.Donald Trump soundly beat Democrat VP Kamala Harris in the US election, faring better than in 2020 in virtually every part of the country and with nearly all demographic groups. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/voters-world-elections-against-ruling-parties-analysis-2024-7">rejection of incumbent political parties</a> across the world this year.The US vice president's late substitution for Biden as the Democratic candidate, and her decision to embrace his policies instead of distancing herself from them, meant she <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">effectively ran as an incumbent</a>.In contrast, Trump's defeat in the 2020 presidential election race enabled him to run as a "change candidate" this cycle and promise to disrupt the status quo.<h2 id="4f519aa6-7d08-4663-8d7f-8e62f03fcb58">Voter backlash</h2>Analysts have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-analysis-harris-immigration-abortion-economy-musk-2024-11">proposed many theories</a> as to why Harris lost, ranging from her gender and race, to her failure to reach out to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-musk-cuban-trump-meme-stocks-gamestop-dogecoin-crypto-markets-2024-11">young men</a>, to her support of Israel's war with Gaza, to her campaign focusing too much on reproductive rights and preserving democracy and too little on immigration and the economy.But from a global perspective, it's little surprise she lost given how many incumbent governments on both the right and the left have received a drubbing this year. Here are just a few of them:<ul><li>Britain's Labour Party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">ousted</a> the Conservative Party, or Tories, this summer.</li><li>France's National Rally party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/france-elections-far-right-macron-le-pen-bardella-2024-6">secured</a> more seats in the country's assembly than in 2022.</li><li>Japan's Liberal Democratic Party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-prime-minister-shigeru-ishiba-shake-up-us-military-pact-2024-9">ceded</a> its parliamentary majority this fall.</li><li>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">lost</a> his majority against expectations, forcing him to form a coalition government.</li><li>South Korea's Democrat Party snagged a majority in the country's legislature.</li><li>South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority.</li></ul>Moreover, the incumbent US party has now lost three consecutive presidential elections for the first time in more than a century, Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note this week.<h2 id="0e2b6ba9-92e6-4498-aadc-0fbc022d984f">Paying the price</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">Inflation</a> has been a key driver of the voter backlash. Prices of food, fuel, housing, and other essentials took off during the pandemic as governments spent heavily and lockdowns snarled global supply chains. In the US, inflation hit a 40-year high of more than 9% in early 2022 and was still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target this September."Trump's victory is the most powerful example this year of a political and economic environment that has been brutal for incumbents around the world and brought home the fact that inflation is political kryptonite," Tina Fordham, an independent strategist and advisor, said in a LinkedIn post this week.A key consequence of inflation has been central banks raising <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/banking/what-is-interest">interest rates</a> to curb spending, hiring, and investing, cooling price growth. The Fed raised its benchmark rate from nearly zero to north of 5% in under 18 months, raising many people's monthly payments on their credit cards, car loans, and mortgages.The central bank made its first cut this September and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">trimmed</a> a second time this week, broadly in line with peers such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.Surging prices and steeper interest rates has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-jpmorgan-consumer-inflation-rates-banking-crisis-2023-4">squeezed households</a> in the US and many other countries. Voters appear to be fed up with onerous living costs and eager to kick out the leaders they blame for their struggles.Other issues, such as illegal immigration and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, have also spurred votes for change.<h2 id="508f4884-4bdf-4651-b7a6-4bb22f9f0fde">Demanding change</h2>In the US, those concerns are so powerful that they've trumped the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-pandemic-stock-market-crash-inflation-recession-rates-ai-2024-2">economic reality</a> of resilient growth, historically low unemployment, declining inflation, falling rates, and a record stock market. In a CNN exit poll, 72% of Americans said they were dissatisfied with the country's direction.Louis Perron, a political consultant author of "Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections," said in a note this week that elections featuring an incumbent are "foremost a referendum on the incumbent."In Harris' case, he said "it would have probably taken a miracle to overcome the circumstances with respect to inflation and the border."People "can't pay for groceries with Democracy or reproductive rights," he added. "If the mood of the electorate is so sour, people just want to stop the bleeding."Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth.He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."

Voters worldwide are angry about higher prices and keep punishing those in power

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Turns out John Oliver was on the money when he predicted a bloodbath for the Conservative Party.</li><li>The comedian slammed the party in an episode of "Last Week Tonight" that aired in June.</li></ul>It's not quite the "extinction-level event for the Tories" that John Oliver predicted, but the Conservative Party did suffer a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">bitter defeat in Thursday's UK general election</a>.In June, the comedian weighed in on the UK election in an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkAqwHiAR-g">episode</a> of "Last Week Tonight." And now it seems Oliver was certainly on the money when he joined political watchers in forecasting a Tory defeat."To put it mildly, the Tories are in trouble, which is a remarkable downfall for a party that's been in power for the last 14 straight years," Oliver said.In his segment, Oliver listed a litany of problems that he thought the Conservatives could be blamed for, ranging from the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-is-a-disaster-britain-trade-european-union-boris-johnson-2021-3">economic fallout wrought by Brexit</a> to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-11/osborne-s-austerity-cost-uk-2-in-lost-gdp-boe-analysis-shows">harsh austerity measures</a> the party imposed on the UK.Oliver also pointed out that the Conservatives have seen five prime ministers take office since 2010: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak."Look, it's objectively fun to look back at what a collection of weirdos ran Britain for years," Oliver said. "But it gets considerably less fun when you look at what they did to the country."Oliver also took the opportunity to hold an early celebration of the Conservative Party's defeat on his show, holding out his arms as rain poured down on the "Last Week Tonight" stage."On July 4, Britain has a chance to wash itself clean of 14 miserable years of Conservative rule, and it is a chance it simply must take," Oliver said.And it seems many UK voters agreed with Oliver's assessment that the Conservative leadership should be booted out.The party suffered a massive defeat Thursday at the hands of the rival Labour Party. As of press time, the Tories had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-uk-election-results/">lost at least 240 seats.</a>Rishi Sunak, the prime minister and Conservative Party leader, conceded defeat to Labour leader Keir Starmer early Friday morning."The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight," Sunak told reporters. "There is much to learn and reflect on, and I take responsibility for the loss."Representatives for Oliver did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider sent outside regular business hours.

John Oliver was right &mdash; the Conservative Party just faced an epic wipeout at the polls

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Benjamin Chadwick — a dual citizen of France and the UK — voted in two national elections this year.</li><li>He writes that in both nations, there's been a shift away from moderate politics toward extremes.</li></ul>I was born and raised in England, but this June marked 10 years since I moved to Paris.I came to France on a student exchange in 2012 and met my now partner. We moved to Paris together in 2014. When the British people voted to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-referendum-reasons-and-analysis-on-a-brexit-vote-2016-6">leave the European Union</a> in 2016, I decided I wanted to live in France long-term.I planned to apply for French citizenship as soon as I could. I didn't know exactly how the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-and-boris-johnson-explained-2019-9">Brexit vote</a> would impact me at the time, but I wanted to secure my right to vote in French elections or perhaps move elsewhere in the EU later in life.It took me another three years to meet the residency requirements for citizenship. In the meantime, I began paying closer attention to politics in France. As I wasn't yet a citizen, I couldn't vote in 2017's presidential election, leaving me feeling powerless. But I was relieved about the result.For much of its history, French politics has been dominated by two parties, representing the left and right. But in 2017, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39130072">neither historic party made it to the second round</a>. Emmanuel Macron <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/03/emmanuel-macron-french-presidential-candidate-grassroots-movement">ran with a centrist campaign</a>, while Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, campaigned on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/french-presidential-election-how-the-candidates-compare">anti-immigration and nationalist ideals</a>. Her brand of populism had succeeded in the previous year with Trump's election — but failed in France, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidential-election-in-landslide-marine-le-pen-2017-5">Macron defeated her</a>, becoming France's President.By the time the 2024 elections came around in France and the UK, I was a citizen of both countries and eager to exercise my vote. In the UK, I wanted to remove the unpopular governing party, the Conservatives, from office. In France, I wanted to keep Le Pen's party out.In recent years, I've watched moderate ideals lose out to reactionary politics again and again, from Trump to Brexit to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/mapped-europe-far-right-government-power-politics-eu-italy-finalnd-hungary-parties-elections-polling/">success of hard-right parties in Europe</a> and elsewhere. Britain looked to be moving in the opposite direction with a projected victory for the center-left Labour Party, which made me feel optimistic, but France looked to be heading into reactionary territory.Political disagreements are a normal part of any healthy democracy. But increasingly, these disagreements are about our fundamental values and even the nature of truth itself. With a big election still to come this year in the US, I'm concerned about this move toward the extremes.<h2 id="86ebff10-5fe7-40c0-8b40-c666fa355f56">Politics in France and the UK has been turbulent in recent years</h2>My first national French elections as a voter were in 2022 when the National Rally continued its seemingly unstoppable rise — Le Pen came <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/french-presidential-election-results-2022-macron-wins-rcna25555">closer than ever</a> to the French presidency.Le Pen became leader of France's right-wing populist "National Front" party in 2011 and renamed it "National Rally" in 2018. Despite the rebrand, the party continues to focus on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240620-how-france-s-far-right-changed-the-debate-on-immigration">drastically reducing migration</a>. France has seen major social unrest in recent years, including protests against <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/08/nuit-debout-protesters-occupy-french-cities-in-a-revolutionary-call-for-change">labor</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50971439">pension</a> reforms, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/20191116-a-year-of-insurgency-how-yellow-vests-left-indelible-mark-on-french-politics">rising fuel costs, and the cost of living</a>. Le Pen has capitalized on a mistrust of mainstream politics, gaining popularity in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/21/counryside-marine-le-pen-forgotten-france-presidential-election-2017">rural</a> areas where some of these <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/21/how-hi-vis-yellow-vest-became-symbol-of-protest-beyond-france-gilets-jaunes">protest movements</a> have been popular.Across the Channel, the political landscape was no less chaotic. The Brexit vote was a seismic shock, and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-brexit-deal-startups-limbo-financial-services-data-2020-12">deal with the EU</a> was only reached years later after Boris Johnson, whom Donald Trump rather unflatteringly labeled "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/23/trump-boris-johnson-britain-trump-uk-prime-minister">Britain Trump</a>," came to power in 2019.Johnson's center-right Conservative party had been in power since 2010 and remained so until the July 2024 election. Revelations of<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/partygate-sue-gray-report-details-2022-5"> lockdown-era parties</a> in Johnson's offices forced his resignation in 2022, and life for many Britons kept getting worse under his successors, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.As in many other countries, wages were failing to keep up with a sharp rise in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-of-living-crisis-uk-people-turn-to-tiktok-2022-11">cost of living</a>. Years of budget cuts meant public services were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/30/uk-public-services-policy-institute-for-government-report">crumbling</a>. Yet despite bold promises, I feel the government <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/65647308">failed to address</a> this and seemed more eager to stoke hatred <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/08/stop-the-boats-sunaks-anti-asylum-slogan-echoes-australia-harsh-policy">against migrants</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68229785">other minorities</a>.One of Rishi Sunak's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64164339">often repeated pledges</a>, both while in office and campaigning for the 2024 election, was his mission to "stop the boats," referencing the illegal immigrants arriving in Britain via small-craft vessels.Back in France, Macron still held the presidency. He initially ran on a centrist platform in 2017, aiming to find <a target="_blank" href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/emmanuel-macrons-la-republique-en-marche-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-french-presidents-groundbreaking-new-party-ahead-of-the-elections-a3563256.html">common ground</a> between the left and right blocs. However, during his seven years in office, he's been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/01/12/new-french-cabinet-reflects-macron-s-electorate-shift-to-the-right_6426251_5.html">accused of</a> veering to the right, appointing ministers who deny police <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/10/14/french-ministers-denial-police-abuses-against-migrants-flies-face-facts">brutality</a> toward migrants, and positioning himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-war-on-woke-laboratoire-de-la-republique/">against "wokism."</a>On June 9, a historic <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/european-union-parliament-election-far-right-nationalist-parties-2024-6">European Parliament election</a> took place, with Le Pen's far-right National Rally netting a record 31.4% of French votes, more than twice as many as Macron's centrist alliance. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/le-pens-party-trounces-macrons-eu-vote-exit-polls-2024-06-09/">Claiming the country needed "clarification,"</a> Macron called for a national parliamentary election on June 30 and July 7. Even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/06/17/how-macron-threw-his-supporters-into-a-panic-by-calling-snap-elections_6675018_5.html">his own allies</a> didn't understand.In the lead-up to the UK election on July 4, opinion polls <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-election-final-mega-polls-predict-total-tory-annihilation-labour-win/">predicted</a> a huge majority for the center-left Labour Party. In France, I feared the National Rally would capitalize on their European victory and take control of the Assembly. As an immigrant, I didn't want to be ruled by a party that routinely demonizes migrants.<h2 id="59a6f7d6-73eb-4e8f-b47a-503a385d4dc3">The elections have made me concerned about extremism and division in both countries</h2>In the end, Labour did secure a historic majority in the UK, but only with a tiny increase in vote share. Meanwhile, Reform UK, a party led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage that campaigned on "freezing" immigration, reneging on net zero climate goals, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-manifesto-you-dont-have-to/">banning "transgender ideology"</a> in schools, netted more than 14% of the vote. This made them the third-largest party in terms of vote share. I was concerned that so many people were willing to vote for such a reactionary party.On top of this, one of Labour's first challenges in power was to deal with widespread <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/arrests-violence-riots-uk-far-right-wing-protests-immigration-2024-8">anti-immigration riots</a> targeting people of color. The protests that spread across the UK this summer were brought about by online disinformation about a stabbing where three young girls were killed.In France, the National Rally failed to get the majority many feared. A "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/07/07/french-elections-far-right-s-rise-blocked-by-republican-front_6676995_5.html">republican front</a>", consisting of other parties joining together to counter the far-right threat, worked better than expected, making the National Rally the third-largest group in terms of seats. But they still wound up with a much bigger voice in parliament than before and were by far the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-left-wing-marine-le-pen-far-right-national-rally-jordan-bardella-seats-new-popular-front/">largest party in terms of vote share</a>.I feel that France and the UK are dealing with many of the same problems: political polarization, the scapegoating of migrants, and an increasing focus on culture wars.<h2 id="c3bc22d1-7f74-40d0-a217-dc97700fc623">I'm worried history will repeat itself when the US elections come around</h2>This summer's events on both sides of the Channel have shown that as people grow disillusioned with the status quo, the extremes are becoming increasingly attractive.The National Rally continues to progress. I fear this year's vote has merely delayed their arrival in government, rather than preventing it. In the UK, this summer's far-right riots show that even when progressives win at the ballot box, the extremes are never far away.European eyes are now looking across the Atlantic.Donald Trump has been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/27/magazine/trump-rallies-rhetoric.html">embracing conspiracy theories and referencing an "invasion" of migrants "conquering" the USA</a> in his 2024 campaign. His victory could have serious consequences for Americans, especially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2024/trump-harris-abortion/">women</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/05/10/trump-promises-rollback-on-trans-rights-heres-what-hes-said/?sh=51549ef4dae0">minorities</a>.In Europe, observers like me are worried about what his leadership would mean for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-signal-us-stop-ukraine-election-russia-volodymyr-zelenskyy-vladimir-putin/">foreign policy</a> in today's turbulent world. Trump's victory would galvanize European politicians like Le Pen and Farage and their supporters. Populist politics may not have won their national elections, but the most powerful nation in the world and its leader are behind them, normalizing their rhetoric.But if he loses, I'm still anxious about what will happen next, given the January 6 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/five-things-we-learned-about-the-insurrection-in-2022-2023-1">capitol riots</a> in 2021.Kamala Harris has reenergized the presidential race and given hope to those who oppose Trump. But even if she wins, the deep divisions in American society won't go away — they haven't in the UK or France.

Voting in the UK and French elections taught me a concerning lesson that Americans should heed when heading to the polls

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris appears to be embracing Charli XCX's "brat" summer.</li><li>The British pop star has backed the Vice President, declaring: "Kamala IS brat."</li></ul>Even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-raises-81-million-in-24-hours-breaks-record-2024-7">Kamala Harris</a> wants to be a "brat" this summer.The Vice President and probable Democratic presidential nominee has decided to embrace a flood of Charli XCX-related memes, even adopting the pop star's "brat" album branding for an official <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-memes-media-strategy-gen-z-unburdened-coconut-2024-7">campaign social media page</a>.The British performer has shared the enthusiasm, endorsing Harris in an X post with the declaration: "Kamala IS brat."Harris is not the first politician to embrace the viral "brat summer" for political gain.Across the pond, the former leader of the UK's left-leaning Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, used the album's typeface and signature color for several social media ads in his recent successful campaign to be re-elected as an independent candidate.The UK's Greens, an environmentally focused political party, also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/green-party-charli-xcx-album-artwork-b2566600.html">co-opted Charli's "brat" branding</a> to encourage voters to go to the polls.But what does a pop album that celebrates partying have to do with politics? Apparently, quite a lot.<h2 id="7659aad1-027a-4040-a790-70fcb9eb7f44">So what exactly is a 'brat' summer?</h2>Charli XCX has defined "brat" as a form of rejection of the "clean girl" aesthetic.According to the artist herself, the concept is about authenticity, having fun, and being a bit trashy."It can go that way, like, quite luxury, but it can also be so, like, trashy," the pop star said in a recent interview. "Just, like, a pack of cigs, and, like, a Bic lighter, and, like, a strappy white top. With no bra. That's, like, kind of all you need."<div type="image" title="Charli XCX on stage" height="2721" width="4088" msid="111987013" hostid="261" sizebytes="154500"></div>The album itself is a celebration of club culture tinged with a touch of existential dread. Its cover art — an iconic burst of lime green with a blurry typeface — is another example of the imperfect nature of being "brat."Social media has run with the idea of the "brat" summer, and the album's aesthetics have taken on a life of their own. With a little help from a viral TikTok dance, the album debuted at number three on the Billboard 200 — the best US chart placing of Charli's career. (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://pitchfork.com/reviews/albums/charli-xcx-brat">Pitchfork</a> called "Brat" "imperious and cool, nuanced and vulnerable, and one of the best pop albums of the year.")"Brat" has captured the summer zeitgeist, and the ripple effects are hitting<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voguebusiness.com/story/fashion/the-business-of-brat"> everything from the fashion industry</a> to political campaigns. Having a "brat" summer has become less about the album — and more about a state of mind.<h2 id="b5e1ccbb-8bf3-40b2-b10f-7b84e6215b79">The memification of Kamala Harris</h2>In terms of Harris' shot at the Oval Office, the "brat" approach could be exactly what the Democrats need.The social media strategy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-memes-media-strategy-gen-z-unburdened-coconut-2024-7">is fun, memey, and resonating with Gen Z</a>. It's tapped into a youthful energy that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both struggled to access.It's also spreading like wildfire.Old videos of Harris dancing, laughing, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@dailymail/video/7394855788046683438">celebrating LGBT rights </a>backed by Charli XCX club anthems were going viral even before Biden dropped his reelection bid. One viral clip shows a group of men on Fire Island sporting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1815165405452714434">"brat" Harris crop tops</a>.The viral nature of the social media support marks Harris out as a different kind of candidate than Trump and Biden. It's a burst of energy for the Democrats and may also force Trump's campaign team into an online world they weren't expecting to have to navigate.However, Harris's social media team may want to tread lightly when it comes to embracing the Vice President's memification. As BI's Katie Notopoulos points out, it can kill the vibe whenever a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-coconut-pilled-brat-memes-charli-xcx-cringe-2024-7">politician or brand leans too hard into organic memes.</a>But for now, Harris is still riding the "brat" wave — and it appears to be working.

Even politicians want to have a 'brat' summer

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Sen. JD Vance joked about the UK being the first Islamist country with nuclear weapons.</li><li>UK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner dismissed the comments, stating that the US is a "key ally."</li></ul>Just days before <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-trump-selected-jd-dance-running-mate-vice-president-2024-7">Sen. JD Vance was chosen as Donald Trump's vice presidential nominee, </a>the Ohio native took a dig at one of the US's closest allies.At the National Conservatism Conference in Washington, DC, last week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/AmMomentOrg/status/1811381270074495130?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1811381270074495130%7Ctwgr%5Ee53557b61e5e4d15358cb2ca63963264f2dc08f3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fjd-vance-uk-islamist-nuclear-weapons-labour%2F">the Republican joked</a> that the UK is now the first Islamist country that has a nuclear weapon."I was talking with a friend recently and we were talking about, you know, one of the big dangers in the world, of course, is nuclear proliferation, though, of course, the Biden administration doesn't care about it," he said."And I was talking about, you know, what is the first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon, and we were like, maybe it's Iran, you know, maybe Pakistan already kind of counts, and then we sort of finally decided maybe it's actually the UK since Labour just took over."It came after the left-leaning Labour Party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">won the UK general election earlier this month, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule.</a>But that wasn't the only dig he took at the UK at the conference, which was also attended by former UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman.Vance said: "The Brits, UK leaders should look out for citizens of the UK or subjects or whatever you guys call yourselves," referring to the fact that the country is still a constitutional monarchy.Despite these comments, Vance is known to have an amicable relationship with David Lammy, the UK's current foreign secretary. Lammy has referred to Vance as "my friend Senator Vance" and has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.eu/podcast/power-play/labours-david-lammy-on-trump-visionary-margaret-thatcher-and-his-bid-to-be-the-uks-next-foreign-secretary/">praised his book, Hillbilly Elegy</a>.When the pair were on a panel together earlier this year at a security conference in Germany, Vance referred to Lammy as "my English friend," according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/16/trump-running-mate-jd-vance-uk-first-islamist-country-nuclear-weapon">The Guardian.</a>The UK's Deputy Prime Minister <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/16/angela-rayner-islamist-labour-comment-jd-vance-keir-starmer-politics-live?page=with:block-669625cc8f08938d143b8a21">Angela Rayner reacted</a> to Vance's "fruity" comments on ITV's Good Morning Britain, saying: "I think political leaders across the world all have different opinions but we govern in the interests of our countries.""And the US is a key ally of ours and if the American people decide who their president and vice president is, we will work with them, of course, we will."Andrew Bowie, the Conservative shadow veterans minister in the UK, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/@ListenToTimesRadio">Times Radio</a> he "absolutely" disagreed that Labour was creating an "Islamist country.""I do not agree with that view, quite frankly. I think it's actually quite offensive, frankly, to my colleagues in the Labour party," he said.On Monday, Trump picked 39-year-old Vance to be the GOP nominee for vice president of the US. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shot-dead-if-he-did-not-tilt-head-2024-7">It came just days after Trump was shot</a> by a gunman in an assassination attempt.Vance was previously critical of Trump and has compared him to Hitler. He has since backed Trump's views on everything from free trade to immigration.

JD Vance joked that Britain is now a nuclear-armed Islamist state because of its left-wing leaders

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Hello! The Labour Party is <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">back in power</a> in the UK after 14 years. In recent months, the UK's new prime minister has made a concerted effort to appear more relatable to voters — and he's been helped by an unlikely mentor: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/keir-starmer-mentored-barack-obama-uk-election-new-prime-minister-2024-7">former US President Barack Obama</a>.In today's big story, we're looking at the mounting pressure President Joe Biden is facing to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pressure-building-joe-biden-drop-out-race-2024-7">forgo his reelection campaign</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: For one group of stocks, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/buy-berkshire-hathaway-insurance-stock-active-2024-hurricane-season-cfra-2024-7">a bad forecast is a good thing</a>.</li><li>Tech: Power-hungry AI data centers are threatening to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-data-centers-us-power-grid-gpu-nvidia-cerebras-amazon-2024-7">put a massive strain on the power grid</a>.</li><li>Business: "Hawk Tuah Girl" wants <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hawk-tuah-girl-viral-fame-meme-plans-merch-hailey-welch-2024-7">her 15 minutes of fame to become a viable business</a>.</li></ul>But first, decision time.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="be02cf47-2828-447c-b280-dd164393461c">The big story</h3><h2 id="3c00d3d3-d2e6-4a67-b05c-6c22d69dab1c">A campaign on the brink</h2><div type="image" title="joe biden sad" height="867" width="1156" msid="111519726" hostid="261" sizebytes="58786"></div>"Should I stay or should I go?"The Clash's 1982 hit could be President Joe Biden's anthem these days as rumors swirl about his reelection bid.The president is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-considers-dropping-out-after-debate-sources-2024-7">reportedly questioning the future of his campaign</a> as his support continues to wane. And it's getting harder to see <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pressure-building-joe-biden-drop-out-race-2024-7">how Biden can stay in the race</a>, writes Business Insider's Bryan Metzger.Biden's disastrous debate performance on June 27 is proving hard to shake. And voters aren't buying the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-and-democrats-cant-decide-blame-for-disastrous-debate-2024-7">myriad of excuses</a> — a cold, bad prep, jet lag — offered up by his campaign.Recent major national surveys <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-debates-polling-harris-election-2024-7">show Biden falling behind former President Donald Trump</a>. And states that have long been Democratic strongholds, like New Mexico and Virginia, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-post-debate-reelection-map-worse-new-mexico-virginia-maine-2024-7">could be up for grabs</a>.His own party has even started to turn on him. Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Raúl Grijalva were <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/which-elected-democrats-called-on-joe-biden-drop-out-2024-7">the first two sitting Democratic members of Congress</a> to call on Biden to drop out.Meanwhile, Biden's most likely replacement — Vice President Kamala Harris — hasn't elicited a strong response.Some Democrats have begun voicing their support for her, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-coconut-tree-memes-khive-joe-biden-debate-2024-7">albeit a bit ironically</a>.In many ways, Harris represents the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-replacing-biden-with-harris-for-campaign-funds-2024-7">only viable option for Democrats</a>. Under campaign finance law, the VP is the only candidate who can easily inherit the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-june-fundraising-haul-donors-spooked-election-debate-2024-7">hundreds of millions of dollars raised by Biden's campaign</a>.<div type="image" title="Photo collage of Vice President Kamala Harris in front of President Joe Biden" height="1500" width="2000" msid="111519723" hostid="261" sizebytes="231534"></div>Biden's first post-debate interview could ultimately decide his fate.The president is scheduled to sit down with ABC News' George Stephanopoulos today in an interview that will air in primetime tonight.One Biden ally told The New York Times the president is aware of how crucial the next few days are for the future of his campaign.Biden's team, however, has pushed back on the notion that the president is considering walking away. The White House flatly denied such reports. Biden is "absolutely not" considering bowing out, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Wednesday.There is one group in Biden's corner: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-debate-republicans-democrats-ballot-deadlines-election-2024-7">Republicans</a>.Many on the right believe a Biden ticket gives Trump the best chance to return to the White House. In fact, some Republicans reportedly might even take legal action to keep Biden on the ballot.<h2 id="f8e9833e-35be-4e87-80f3-cad22a86f80d">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="houses falling" height="556" width="1116" msid="111519729" hostid="261" sizebytes="11038"></div><ol><li>Tough times ahead for the real-estate market. A longtime strategist predicts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-crash-home-prices-correction-foreclosures-mortgage-defaults-2024-7">the real-estate market is headed for a correction</a> that could hit mortgage-holders particularly hard. "People are going to have to start to sell their homes," he said.</li><li>Bad weather = good returns. CFRA pointed to insurance stocks, like Berkshire Hathaway and Progressive, that stand to benefit from what experts predict will be a "very active" hurricane season. More storms "will likely buoy pricing for many lines of property-casualty insurance and reinsurance," <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/buy-berkshire-hathaway-insurance-stock-active-2024-hurricane-season-cfra-2024-7">CFRA said</a>.</li><li>S&amp;P 500 to 7,000 next year? Capital Economics is forecasting <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-record-ai-bubble-burst-dotcom-tech-2024-7">a 27% increase for the benchmark index through 2025</a>. But chief economist Neil Shearing predicts the bubble will eventually pop as investor enthusiasm outpaces earnings growth.</li></ol><h2 id="34c5d7bc-5e50-4f22-b007-f51163ca4683">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers a keynote address during the Nvidia GTC Artificial Intelligence Conference at SAP Center on March 18, 2024 in San Jose, California." height="682" width="1024" msid="111519724" hostid="261" sizebytes="15004"></div><ol><li>AI's huge electric appetite. In the next two years, generative AI is expected to add demand equal to three times the amount of energy New York City uses. The US needs to expand the power grid to keep up, and that's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-data-centers-us-power-grid-gpu-nvidia-cerebras-amazon-2024-7">a big opportunity for firms in construction, power, and data-center cooling</a>.</li><li>Big Tech admits AI's big threats. Google and Meta have been loud and proud in their commitments to the AI race. But privately they've expressed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-google-meta-all-admitting-the-risks-ai-poses-2024-7">concerns about the ethical, legal, and regulatory issues AI could cause</a> for their "brands and demand." Misinformation and data privacy were among the top worries.</li><li>There's a new plot twist in Apple's deal with OpenAI. According to Bloomberg, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-openai-board-observer-seat-microsoft-report-bloomberg-2024-7">Apple gets an observer role on OpenAI's board</a>. The move puts Apple on equal footing with Microsoft, OpenAI's biggest backer. However, the two companies <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-microsoft-openai-agreements-differences-iphone-chatgpt-sam-altman-2024-7">have very different arrangements with OpenAI</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="37a62bc2-14d8-4de4-93d2-59ef4c8c63c7">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A sports jersey with a women's symbol cut out of it" height="1000" width="2000" msid="111519725" hostid="261" sizebytes="48178"></div><ol><li>Women's sports merchandise has an underdog champion. Demand is high for kits and jerseys repping female sports stars like Caitlin Clark and Alex Morgan. But problems like low inventory, lack of retailers, and minimal options plague the market. To answer the call, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/womens-sports-merchandise-market-gap-2024-7">smaller companies are stepping up</a>.</li><li>Can she "hawk tuah" her way to the top? Hailey Welch, dubbed the "Hawk Tuah Girl" for her viral answer to an R-rated street-interview question, wants to cash in on her newfound fame. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hawk-tuah-girl-viral-fame-meme-plans-merch-hailey-welch-2024-7/">But it's unclear if — and how — she'll be able to make her 15 minutes last</a>.</li><li>Saks Fifth Avenue is buying Neiman Marcus. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saks-neiman-marcus-tie-up-with-amazon-fend-off-lvmh-2024-7">$2.65 billion sale</a> shows just how challenging things are getting in the luxury-retail space. That's not all: Both Amazon and Salesforce are getting in on the deal, with both taking minority stakes in the new company, Saks Global.</li></ol><h2 id="4025add2-98c3-4b77-964f-acb082cfda76">In other news</h2><ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mckinsey-company-recommends-9-business-books-annual-reading-list-2024-7">These are McKinsey's top 9 recommendations for business books this year</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-teeters-far-right-uk-opposite-keir-starmer-labour-tories-2024-7">As Europe teeters further to the far right, the UK is doing the opposite</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/whole-foods-may-not-be-whole-paycheck-for-groceries-now-2024-7">Whole Foods isn't a "whole paycheck" anymore, its cofounder says. Here's what I found buying groceries</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-oliver-right-conservative-party-got-wiped-out-polls-2024-7">John Oliver was right — the Conservative Party just faced an epic wipeout at the polls</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7">Russia's frenemy China is quietly trying to dampen Putin's influence</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-jony-ive-what-working-with-steve-jobs-was-like-2024-7">Legendary iPhone designer Jony Ive opens up about what it was like working with Steve Jobs</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-son-pete-career-product-manager-comedian-2024-7">I'm the son of a billionaire who forged my own career path</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="ca266871-ffa2-478b-91b5-8dcc0da10ed0">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>A first look at Biden's interview with George Stephanopoulos airs on ABC.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Biden's first post-debate interview could ultimately decide his fate

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The UK has voted the Labour Party back in power, smashing the Tories' 14-year majority.</li><li>Meanwhile, the rest of Europe has seen the far-right gaining legitimate power.</li></ul>As the dust settles from the UK's general election, it's clear the Tories have lost big.The results from July 4 were a dramatic rebuke of an incumbent Conservative Party leadership that has governed for 14 years, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's faction losing more than 240 seats as the count wrapped up.Sunak, who <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">conceded defeat on Friday morning UK time</a>, will likely be replaced by Labour Party leader <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/keir-starmer-mentored-barack-obama-uk-election-new-prime-minister-2024-7">Keir Starmer.</a>Starmer has spent over a decade trying to reshape his leftist party into a more centrist movement, ejecting its socialist elements, including stalwart Jeremy Corbyn.Often seen as a straight-laced, methodical politician, he's pledged to shore up vulnerabilities in the healthcare system and to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/27/keir-starmer-vows-to-re-negotiate-botched-post-brexit-trade-deal-with-the-eu">re-negotiate the UK's Brexit deal with the European Union</a> — which he said had been "botched."To be sure, the defeat of the Tories was partly due to smaller parties — including Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK — siphoning the vote share in scores of conservative constituencies. Farage's party came in second for over 100 seats, while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jul/05/eleven-charts-that-show-how-labour-won-by-a-landslide">The Guardian</a> estimates that it may have cost the Tories 180 seats.Despite winning a stunning number of seats, Labour has not enjoyed a meteoric rise in vote share that matches the Tories' spectacular fall.Still, the result has been that power in the UK parliament has shifted emphatically away from conservatives, making it a clear outlier in Europe's political shifts this year.Among the continent's other most prominent nations, the European Parliamentary elections in June have seen far-right factions gain critical mass, and the results are cascading into an unraveling of power long-held by leftist governments there.<h2 id="504f52dc-8c1a-4a5e-88e0-a79b8c44cb6e">Germany's Scholz denies a snap election</h2>Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, overtook Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party in the EU polls despite losing key candidates and fighting a series of scandals.<div type="image" title="Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, co-leaders of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, celebrate at the AfD election evening gathering following the release of initial election results in European parliamentary elections on June 9, 2024 in Berlin, Germany." height="5255" width="7946" msid="111509194" hostid="261"></div>Now in <a target="_blank" href="https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/germany/">second place with 16%</a> of the German vote, the far-right party has taken the result as a sign of national support shifting in its favor and called for a snap election at home. Scholz, however, has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dw.com/en/eu-elections-2024-afd-germany-cdu-csu/live-69318858">rejected the idea.</a><h2 id="ecac7f5e-92a6-42cb-bced-579472afe08f">France's Macron in peril</h2>It's a different story for France and President Emmanuel Macron, whose Renaissance party won only 14.6% of the vote in the European election.With the National Rally — a far-right faction led by Marine Le Pen — taking first place with 31.3% of the French vote, Macron called for a snap election of his country's national parliament.<div type="image" title="Head of French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) parliamentary group at the National Assembly Marine Le Pen casts her vote in the first round of parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, North of France, on June 30, 2024." height="1603" width="2405" msid="111509197" hostid="261"></div>As the first round of the French election closed on Sunday, results showed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-vote-election-that-could-put-far-right-government-2024-06-30/">Le Pen's faction pulling far ahead </a>of its leftist and centrist opponents.A second round is to come on July 7, and the lead-up has evolved into a chaotic effort to keep the far right from power.<a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/02/europe/french-election-drop-outs-intl-latam/index.html">Hundreds of candidates have withdrawn</a>, trying to avoid splitting the vote between those in the center and left.Meanwhile, Macron, whose approval ratings have plummeted to their lowest in his seven-year tenure as president, is keeping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-04/macron-has-gone-quiet-ahead-of-a-key-vote-his-group-is-grateful">a low profile.</a><h2 id="a549c11d-e28d-4c62-91c7-a89483641e91">The Brothers of Italy win a show of support</h2>In Italy, the far right has already cemented its power in the form of Prime Minister <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/italian-far-right-leader-giorgia-meloni-ascent-to-power-2022-9">Giorgia Meloni's</a> ultra-conservative Brothers of Italy, which became the ruling party in 2022.<div type="image" title="Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni with the Minister for European Affairs, Cohesion Policies and the PNRR, Raffaele Fitto during the Communications of the President of the Council in view of the meeting of the European Council of 27 and 28 June 2024 at the Senate Chamber." height="3648" width="5423" msid="111509199" hostid="261"></div>In a sign of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-09/italy-s-meloni-wins-eu-vote-as-far-right-gains-across-the-block">sustaining support for her party</a>, it won nearly 29% of the national vote in June's European Parliament elections, up from 6% in 2019.The runner-up was the Democratic Party, with 24.1% of the Italian vote.Elsewhere, much of Europe is leaning right. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-centre-right-pp-wins-european-election-blow-socialist-pm-2024-06-09/">Spain's People's Party</a>, a center-right faction, gained 34% of the country's vote in the European Parliament, beating the incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's socialist government.Still, the far-right faction there, Vox, struggled to gain a foothold, with only 9.6% of the vote, down from 12.4% in 2019.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1r0xvn0z5o">The Netherlands</a> has also just formed a right-wing government, with its largest component being the anti-immigration and populist Party for Freedom led by Geert Wilders.Meanwhile, the far right is seeing clearer beginnings with Reform UK. While coming in second for many constituencies, it's taken 4 seats after winning nothing in 2019.Farage, who led the Brexit movement, is now finally elected a member of the country's parliament <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/farages-reform-breaks-through-uk-election-with-strong-early-showing-2024-07-04/">with 46% of the vote in Clacton.</a><div type="image" title="Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage speaks to the crowd as he arrives in a land rover to deliver a stump speech to supporters on July 3, 2024 in Clacton-on-Sea, England." height="2000" width="3000" msid="111509193" hostid="261"></div>The dramatic changes in the polls come amid growing disdain toward the economic challenges faced in many parts of the continent, with a rising cost of living and inflation.Some observers think the shifts are a sign of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/voters-world-elections-against-ruling-parties-analysis-2024-7">pure anti-establishment sentiment</a>, with voters blaming whoever is in power regardless of whether they're on the left or right."There's a lot of dissatisfaction with the way democracy is working," Richard Wike, the director of global attitudes research at the Pew Research Center, said on an episode of <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/3xt5bXWg8350STWNNNYoLK?si=ba357653f447427b&amp;nd=1&amp;dlsi=48f6ccf679b646f4">FiveThirtyEight's politics podcast in June.</a>July 5, 2023: This story was updated to reflect further information on the impact of Reform UK's campaigns on the Conservative Party's loss in vote share.

As power in Europe teeters further to the far right, the UK has done the opposite

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Keir Starmer is the UK's new prime minister after his Labour Party won Thursday's election.</li><li>He's had help opening up about his personal story from an unlikely source: Barack Obama.</li></ul>Britons have voted and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">UK is posed up for a radical change in leadership</a>.The left-wing Labour Party has won more than 400 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, which means its leader, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/keir-starmer-wins-new-labour-party-leader-replaces-jeremy-corbyn-2020-4">Keir Starmer</a>, is to be prime minister and 14 years of Conservative Party rule is over.Starmer declared, "Change begins now," at a rally early Friday morning as results poured in, but his victory came despite the fact he's often described as lacking <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/06/keir-starmer-tony-blair-reform-new-labour-90s">charisma</a>.Jill Rutter, a research fellow at the London research group UK in a Changing Europe, had told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/world/europe/keir-starmer-uk-election.html">The New York Times</a> he "does look relatively prime-ministerial," but added, "He's not going to set hearts racing."Starmer entered politics relatively late, first being elected to the UK's House of Commons at age 52 in 2015. Before that, he was a lawyer who rose to become the chief prosecutor for England and Wales; he had a big public profile but no need to ask the public for votes.As a candidate for high office, Starmer has had no choice but to tell his back story. After becoming Labour leader in 2020, he stressed his humble roots, often describing how his father worked as a toolmaker and his mother a nurse while they raised their children in a "pebble-dash semi," a small home adjoining another property.But Starmer has seemed, at times, ill at ease with the public display of emotion needed to tell his story, despite it being a political asset that offers a stark contrast with the outgoing prime minister <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rishi-sunak-uk-prime-minister-goldman-sachs-banker-hedge-fund-2022-10">Rishi Sunak</a>.Sunak, a former Goldman Sachs banker, is married to Akshata Murty, the daughter of the Indian billionaire and Infosys founder N. R. Narayana Murthy. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thetimes.com/sunday-times-rich-list/profile/article/rishi-sunak-and-akshata-murty-net-worth-sunday-times-rich-list-blp6mk660">Sunday Times</a> reported in May that the couple's net worth was £651 million, which is about $830 million.In recent months, Starmer has made a concerted effort to appear more relatable to voters and emphasize that contrast.He's been helped by an unlikely mentor: former US President <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-top-20-presidents-in-us-history-according-to-historians-2017-2">Barack Obama</a>.<h2 id="cbd8fb6f-43af-4c81-8889-3da7e252cf0d">Obama encouraged Starmer to be vulnerable</h2>In a series of Zoom calls, Obama, who served as US president from 2009 until 2017, encouraged Starmer to become more vulnerable and open with the public and has spoken with the Labour leader about the difficult decisions he made in the Oval Office.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/former-us-president-barack-obama-labour-party-leader-keir-starmer-open-up-be-yourself/">Politico</a> reported that the pair were first introduced by David Lammy, one of Starmer's key lieutenants, who will become his foreign secretary if Labour wins.Speaking on Politico's "Power Play" podcast in March, Lammy said he and Obama had known each other for 20 years since meeting at an event for Black alumni of Harvard University.When <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-68597108">Obama dropped in to meet Sunak in March</a>, he also met Lammy for dinner, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/18/barack-obama-rishi-sunak-informal-talks-downing-street/">The Telegraph</a> reported.Lammy said Obama's influence on Starmer was apparent when the Labour leader recently opened up about his family's backstory "much more comfortably than perhaps we saw a few years ago.""And I know that Obama has strong views that Keir should do that," he added.<div type="image" title="David Lammy and Keir Starmer talking." height="683" width="1024" msid="111492696" hostid="261"></div>Lammy was speaking after Starmer gave an extended interview to <a target="_blank" href="https://news.sky.com/story/sir-keir-starmer-wishes-he-addressed-distant-relationship-with-late-father-13092654">Sky News</a>, in which he described how his mother had Still's disease, a rare type of inflammatory arthritis.He said his father spent most of his time looking after her, and this had "squeezed" his "emotional space" and made him more emotionally distant from his children."I probably should have addressed that before he passed, and I wish I had, but I didn't," Starmer added.<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/kitty_donaldson?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Kitty Donaldson</a>, a political journalist in the UK, told Business Insider this interview marked a turning point in Starmer's public display of emotion."Up until that point, Starmer had been very stiff, very practical, very straitlaced," Donaldson said, adding that Obama "unlocked" and "gave permission" for Starmer to open up."In terms of his leadership style, it's had an impact," she said. "Obama is quite laid back. This campaign has been more laid back than we have seen, and he seemed to enjoy going up and down the country speaking to people."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/political-science/research/centre-us-politics-cusp/find-expert/dr-tom-packer">Tom Packer</a>, an honorary research fellow at University College London who specializes in US politics and elections, told BI that Starmer's backstory had become a "theme of the campaign."He said it helped challenge the idea that all UK politicians come from a "posh background" without struggle.<h2 id="1aed6752-c6d7-4a73-9ed2-718373438522">Obama could advise Starmer on how to deal with Trump</h2>Obama's and Starmer's relationship is likely to continue if Starmer wins the election on Thursday.Obama had helped Starmer since at least 2021, when <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/12/barack-obama-gives-tips-to-keir-starmer-and-david-lammy-on-how-labour-can-regain-winning-ways">The Guardian</a> reported that they were involved in two hours' worth of private talks with Lammy about how center-left parties could return to power.Speaking on the "<a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/keir-starmer-international-uk-labour-leader-puts-the/id1202281739?i=1000628653155">Power Play</a>" podcast in September, Starmer said Obama was the US president he spoke to "most frequently.""I've spoken to him a number of times, and his analysis on the world is always interesting, his challenges, and just going through with him what he faced, how he rose to the challenges," Starmer said."It is always useful to test my ideas on people who won elections, people who've taken difficult decisions in power because that helps me think about how we might approach some of the decisions we might have to take if we do win that election," he added.Packer said Obama and Starmer's relationship made sense, given the decadeslong ties between the UK's Labour Party and the US Democratic Party.Donaldson meanwhile suggested Starmer might seek advice from Obama on dealing with Donald Trump if the former president is reelected in November.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump and Joe Biden standing behind podiums in a CNN studio." height="683" width="1024" msid="111492698" hostid="261"></div>Trump is leading the polls, and Biden's shaky performance during the first presidential debate on June 27 has led Democrats to panic and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jill-biden-support-joe-could-be-damaging-expert-step-down-2024-7">urge him to step aside for another candidate</a>.Speaking to Politico last September, Starmer said his team had been in talks with Biden, adding, "It's clear what my desired outcome would be."Packer told BI that Starmer and his team wouldn't want to put "their eggs in one basket" and would be eager to secure "some kind of relationship with Trump that works," regardless of their political differences.Trump "finds it hard to be nasty about people that are nice to him," Packer said.He added that if Starmer were "nice," a Labour government could end up with a good relationship with Trump "even if they disagree with him on policy."He noted that Starmer had been careful to avoid making anti-Trump comments during his election campaign.In an interview with BBC Radio 5 last week, Starmer was asked whether he agreed with Lammy's 2018 description of Trump as a "woman-hating neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath" and a "profound threat to the international order.""Those aren't words that I've ever used," Starmer responded."I know the job of the person who leads our country is to deal with the leaders of other countries, who are elected by their people. You don't always get to choose the leaders of other countries," he continued.Lammy has also softened his stance. He told a summit in May that Trump's position on European defense was "misunderstood" and he merely "wants Europeans to do more to ensure a better defended Europe," according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-misunderstood-uk-labour-party/">Politico</a>.After <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hush-money-trial-verdict-2024-5">Trump was convicted of paying Stormy Daniels hush money</a>, Starmer called it "unprecedented."But he said, "We will work with whoever is elected," adding, "We have a special relationship with the US that transcends whoever the president is."Correction: July 4, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled N. R. Narayana Murthy's surname as Murty. It also misstated the date of Trump and Biden's first presidential debate. It was on June 27, not June 28.

How Obama mentored the new UK prime minister to help him tell his story

<ul class="summary-list"><li>People around the world are choosing to vote against the establishment.</li><li>And this anti-incumbent trend is bad news for President Joe Biden. </li></ul>It's a bad time to be an incumbent.From the UK to India, France to the US, voters are taking to the polls and making their voices clear through sweeping and shocking swings of political power.Though some say right-wing movements are on the rise globally, in this year's elections, that's not universally the case. Some left-leaning parties are beating out those on the right, and vice versa.With the cost of living and inflation rising and less social mobility following the COVID-19 pandemic, voters are taking their anger out on their country's leaders."I think inflation is probably the elephant in the room here," Brian Greenhill, a professor at SUNY Albany and political scientist who studies international institutions and globalization, told Business Insider.<div type="image" title="Protesters holding up signs with messages such as: &quot;I'm a climate voter,&quot; &quot;Restore nature now,&quot; and &quot;Make Tory MPs a rare species on 4th July for all our sakes.&quot;" height="3924" width="5300" msid="111487406" hostid="261"></div>In short, voters are just fed up — no matter who's in charge."I do think there are other longer-term structural issues too that are perhaps fueling this kind of anti-incumbent, but also more generally antiestablishment, trend," Greenhill said.<h2 id="596cd259-b78a-47da-abdd-3c37561388cb">Voters want a chance</h2>Globally, it's not hard to see an antiestablishment, anti-incumbency trend playing out.<ul><li>Polling shows that in the UK's election on Thursday, the Labour opposition party, led by Keir Starmer, is poised to unseat the 14-year rule of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/labour-ahead-conservatives-before-uks-july-4-election-polls-show-2024-07-01/">Reuters</a> reported.</li><li>In France, support for President Emmanuel Macron's centrist government collapsed as far-left and far-right parties gained a higher percentage of votes this week in the first round of the country's two-round election process.</li><li>In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's long-dominant party <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">failed to win an outright parliamentary majority</a> in last month's election, while the more democratically-minded opposition party gained steam.</li><li>In South Africa's election last month, the African National Congress party lost its outright majority for the first time in 30 years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/06/01/nx-s1-4987616/south-africa-election-results">NPR</a> reported.</li><li>And in South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol's ruling conservative party suffered losses to the liberal opposition in April's parliamentary election, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-opposition-wins-landslide-parliamentary-vote-resounding-blow-yoon-2024-04-10/">Reuters</a> reported.</li></ul>The list of global incumbent losses goes on — and that's not even mentioning the United States, where incumbent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-debates-polling-harris-election-2024-7">President Joe Biden is trailing behind Donald Trump</a> in national polling ahead of the November election.<div type="image" title="A child waving a French flag among a crowd of protesters, with people climbing a graffitied monument in the background." height="4000" width="6000" msid="111487412" hostid="261"></div>"There's a lot of dissatisfaction with the way democracy is working," Richard Wike, the director of Pew Research Center's global attitudes research, said on <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/3xt5bXWg8350STWNNNYoLK?si=ba357653f447427b">FiveThirtyEight's politics podcast</a> in June.A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/06/18/satisfaction-with-democracy-has-declined-in-recent-years-in-high-income-nations/">spring 2024 poll from Pew Research Center</a> found that just 36% of people in 12 countries — the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden — were satisfied with the way their country's democracy was working. And that's down from 49% in 2021."This dissatisfaction is a bit of a global trend in many countries," Wike added on FiveThirtyEight's podcast.Greenhill said one of the biggest issues driving the surge in antiestablishment populist movements was rising income equality, which, though largely stemming from the 2008 financial crisis, was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.<div type="image" title="A wall covered in graffiti, including the words &quot;eat the rich.&quot;" height="3415" width="5123" msid="111487409" hostid="261"></div>Another factor, Greenhill added, was the worsening political polarization driven by social-media echo chambers and dubious online news consumption.In the US, incumbents have historically fared better than their opponents.Between 1936 and 2012, 11 out of 14 presidents won their reelection races, but the tide appears to be shifting, as <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://time.com/6549871/2024-presidential-elections-incumbency/">Time</a> reported.Greenhill pointed out that anti-incumbency frustrations tend to come and go but that the growing populist, antiestablishment movement we're seeing now is "at least in modern political history, somewhat new.""The fact that Trump right now — after everything that's happened after January 6th and his felony convictions and his multiple criminal indictments — the fact that he's still leading in the polls shows that there's still a huge kind of reservoir of support for this kind of 'burn the house down' kind of approach to politics," Greenhill said.And if the goal is burning down the house, Americans may be ready to light the match. So-called "double haters" — voters who dislike both Trump and Biden — have made up an influential chunk of the electorate in recent polls.Reports say the dissatisfaction with Biden after his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">disastrous debate performance</a> last week is so strong <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-allies-bidens-debate-performance-reaction-donald-trump-2024-6">globally</a> and even <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-loyalists-say-step-down-after-trump-debate-2024-6">among his own supporters</a> that it's led the president himself to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-considers-dropping-out-after-debate-sources-2024-7">question whether he can turn it all around</a>.If Biden does decide to step aside, it would present a unique situation: Who would voters choose when no direct incumbent is running in an anti-incumbent environment?America may end up being the testing ground for that experiment.

Forget right or left. Voters are sick of whoever's in charge. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Jill Biden has led efforts to counter concerns about Joe Biden's age after his shaky debate.</li><li>The first lady is unlikely to join calls for her husband to step down, experts say. </li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-debate-aides-struggles-function-after-4-p-m-2024-7">Joe Biden's inner circle</a> is working overtime to convince voters he has what it takes to be president, and the first lady is leading the charge.Jill Biden — the president's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-jill-biden-relationship-timeline-2020-8">wife of 47 years</a> — responded to criticism of her husband's age at a Manhatten fundraiser on Friday, saying the 81-year-old is "not a young man.""When he gets knocked down, Joe gets back up, and that's what we're doing today," Jill said, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/2024/06/29/jill-biden-joe-biden-debate/">The Washington Post</a>.Speaking to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.vogue.com/article/first-lady-jill-biden-august-2024-cover-interview">Vogue</a> magazine over the weekend, Jill said the family "will not let those 90 minutes define the four years he's been president. We will continue to fight."Despite mounting pressure, Jill is holding her ground.Michael LaRosa, a former advisor to Jill, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/us/politics/biden-debate-performance.html">The New York Times </a>that the couple's political partnership has been partly shaped by Biden bowing out of the 1988 presidential race.It came after an investigation revealed that Biden lifted portions of a speech by United Kingdom Labour MP and Margaret Thatcher challenger Neil Kinnock. It led the media to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/plagiarism-scandal-joe-biden-first-presidential-run-1988-2019-3"> suspect plagiarism.</a>"In 1987, she saw him be forced out by the press, pundits and polls, and it was really a scarring experience for both of them," LaRosa told the Times. "I think they learned from that experience and they weren't going to have their hands forced like they were in 1987."<h2 id="c94598ec-0dac-4c98-b711-bfe8a9d8aaff">Jill is unlikely to convince the president to drop out</h2>According to a <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/28/biden-democrats-replacement-intervention-column-00165705">Politico report</a> cited by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jill-biden-vows-continue-fighting-reelection-2024-7?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=news-sf&amp;utm_source=facebook">Business Insider</a>, Democrats close to Biden said his wife is the only person who could convince him to step down.Katie Rogers, a White House correspondent for The New York Times, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-good-sex-key-to-a-great-marriage-book-2024-2">wrote in her new book</a> that Jill has a strong influence on her husband's decision-making process.<div type="image" title="Jill Biden Joe Biden" height="683" width="1024" msid="111438109" hostid="261" sizebytes="40918"></div>In an excerpt from the book, titled "American Woman: The Transformation of the Modern First Lady, From Hillary Clinton to Jill Biden," Rogers wrote that the first lady discouraged Biden from running for president in 2004 by walking into an aide meeting wearing a halter top that had the word "No" written on the stomach.Andrew Payne, a lecturer in foreign policy at City University of London, told BI that Jill's support for her husband isn't unusual. He said the Biden family's first instinct has historically been "to encourage the president to double down, not tap out."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-defense-disaster-debate-backfire-experts-say-2024-7">Thomas Gift</a>, an associate professor of political science at University College London (UCL), cautioned that voters should be mindful of speculation about the president and first lady's relationship."In public, it's expected that Mrs Biden will support her husband. Behind closed doors, we can only guess at what she's advocating," he said.<h2 id="d62f0240-ab69-44c4-913d-b317b4f3e54a">The Bidens are out of touch, experts say</h2>Nadia Hilliard, a senior lecturer in US politics at University College London, told BI that Jill will play a "supportive and enabling" role as first lady.However, she added that Jill and the wider Biden camp's unwavering support could be more harmful than helpful."It's possible the Bidens have surrounded themselves with 'yes men' and psyching themselves up to say, 'we can do this,' without being in touch with the millions of people saying, 'you have to step down,'" Hilliard said.She said this mindset extends to the Democratic party, adding that many will automatically support Biden because of a "genuine fear" that the party doesn't stand a chance with a replacement nominee."There's a sense that if he withdraws, Trump wins. That would be a disastrous move," she said.The Biden campaign downplayed Biden's performance on Thursday, branding it as insignificant in the long run.<div type="image" title="President Joe Biden put up an extremely poor performance at the first debate." height="1500" width="2250" msid="111438105" hostid="261" sizebytes="193416"></div>Jen O'Malley Dillon, Biden's top campaign strategist, said any drop in the polls after the debate would be due to an "overblown media narrative," according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-trump-reaction.html">The New York Times</a>.The president's deputy campaign manager, Quentin Fulks, told staff that "nothing fundamentally changed about this election" after the debate, the outlet said.Payne agrees with Hilliard's argument, saying there's a broader question of "whether the president actually should be listening primarily to his inner circle at this stage.""Many have blamed his advisors for the poor debate performance in recent days, claiming that efforts to shield the president's apparent frailty from the public contributed to the blowback he is now experiencing," Payne said."To win in November, the president needs to bring along a diverse range of donors, political elites, and, ultimately, voters. His family will be with him to the end."Whether the others will remains to be seen."

Why Jill Biden is unlikely to convince Joe to step down, despite mounting pressure

<ul><li>India's real GDP grew at around 8.2% in real terms in Fy24: Economic Survey </li><li>Retail inflation dipped to 5.4% in FY24, notes Economic Survey</li><li>Unemployment dipped to 3.2% in FY24</li></ul><keyword id="19912360" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is set to present the union budget on 23rd July, at 11 am. The budget session is scheduled to last between 22nd July and 12th August. This will be <keyword id="19956941" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FM-Sitharaman" source="keywords">FM Sitharaman</keyword>'s seventh consecutive budget presentation under the third term of <keyword id="20205025" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bhartiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bhartiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bhartiya Janata Party">Bhartiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP). All budget-related documents will be available at indiabudget.gov.in. You can watch the presentation live on Doordarshan, Sansad TV, and also on various official government YouTube channels. With this budget, Sitharaman will only precede former PM <keyword id="20342248" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Morarji-Desai" source="keywords">Morarji Desai</keyword>, who has presented the highest number of budget (10) till date, followed by <keyword id="22330828" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="P-Chidambaram" source="keywords">P. Chidambaram</keyword> with 9 budgets, and Pranab Mukherjee, who has 8 budgets to his credit. In her recent address in parliament, Sitharaman noted that significant social and economic decisions will be a highlight of this budget. Notably, she concluded <keyword id="901788" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-budget-consultations" source="Orion">pre-budget consultations</keyword>, which began on June 19th, on July 5th, where she met 20 invitees across 10 groups, including representatives from agriculture, skill development, finance and banking, energy, <keyword id="17408" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infrastructure" source="Orion">infrastructure</keyword> sector and more. <h2>Key expectations from Budget 2024</h2>Experts note that this budget will mainly focus on improving consumption, and boosting <keyword id="174143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure-development" source="Orion">infrastructure development</keyword>. Per reports, the government is also mulling raising the threshold of standard deduction under income tax regimes from the present Rs 50,000 to Rs 1 lakh. Additionally, to boost healthcare accessibility for the underserved in the country, the government is also contemplating to double the annual coverage offered under the <keyword id="20097876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ayushman-Bharat-health-insurance-scheme" source="keywords">Ayushman Bharat health insurance scheme</keyword> from the present Rs 5 lakh to Rs 10 lakh over the next 3 years, along with also covering individuals aged over 70. Mr. Tashwinder Singh, CEO &amp; MD, Niyogin Fintech Limited, which offers credit to MSMEs, noted that upcoming regulatory changes should focus on simplifying compliance, taxation policies that encourage entrepreneurship, and incentivise innovations that drive R&amp;D investments. "We hope that the government takes measures to support the lending industry through access to capital and affordable interest rates, enabling entrepreneurs to realize their vision. Furthermore, we look forward to relaxed norms for NBFCs, allowing them to contribute more substantially to the economy. These measures will collectively propel India's economic growth, boost job creation, and position the Indian fintech industry as a strong contender in innovation and entrepreneurship", he continues. As for bolstering green infrastructure and clean energy production, Ms Aditi Balbir, Co-founder, EcoRatings notes that the 2024 union budget should prioritize investments in sustainable infrastructure projects and clean energy solutions, as 70% of greenhouse gas emissions stem from energy, industry, and buildings. "This will create a future-proof foundation for economic growth and help in achieving net-zero targets. Infrastructure is crucial in addressing climate change and meeting diverse societal needs. A transformative overhaul of our current and future infrastructure assets is essential. The budget should introduce financial incentives, such as lower interest rates on loans and dedicated grants, for companies committed to ESG compliance. This will create a clear link between sustainability efforts and economic benefits", she continued. <h2>Focus on Agri-credit, Real Estate in Budget 2024</h2>The government could also raise the target for agricultural loans disbursed during the year by up to 25%, setting the target at Rs 25 lakh crore. The government will also have to revamp the MSP (minimum support price) system in this space, focusing on challenges such as narrow coverage, dipping export competitiveness, discouraging private investment in this space and more. Another area that demands significant attention is real estate. Shubhi Jain, Principal Partner &amp; Head of CRM, Square Yards anticipates significant reforms in the upcoming budget under the new government. Securing industry status will unlock a plethora of legal and administrative benefits, along with much-needed tax incentives. "Also, while government’s focus on affordable housing under PMAY is commendable, recalibrating strategies in light of escalating construction costs is imperative for sustained inclusiveness and effectiveness. Moreover, enhanced tax reliefs and increased deductions on home loans, currently capped at INR 2 lakhs, are pivotal in stimulating demand and supporting prospective buyers", she says. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111946291" title="Union Budget 2024-25 key highlights: Assistance for Nalanda's development as a tourist center" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div><h2>Short-term outlook positive, notes Economic Survey </h2>FM Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2023-24 in the parliament today, ahead of the budget. The survey noted that the Indian economy had managed to recover and expand in an orderly fashion post the pandemic, with the real GDP growing by 8.2% in FY24. Going ahead, prospects for continued strong growth in FY25 remain robust. India also managed to bring down its current account deficit (0.7% of GDP in FY24), while projecting a 7%+ growth rate in the medium term. On the employment front, the survey noted that AI might moderate India's services export growth by as much as 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points annually over the course of the next decade. As such, greater emphasis and focus is needed on areas like blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, Internet of Things, cybersecurity, cloud computing, big data analytics, augmented reality, virtual reality, 3D printing, and web and mobile development. The Indian labour market indicators have significantly improved over the past 6 years, with unemployment rates dipping to 3.2% in 2022-23. However, even as net payroll additions to EPFO have doubled over the last 5 years, signaling a healthy formal employment market, job creation and increasing women participation in workforce remain key areas of concern. For all updates and latest information related to the budget, don't forget to follow <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Budget Insider</a>! SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/union-budget-2024-live-updates-finance-minister-nirmala-sitharaman-key-announcements-23-july/liveblog/111942008.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Union Budget 2024 Live Updates: FM Sitharaman announces internships for 10 million youth in 500 top companies</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/budget/news/loan-limit-under-mudra-scheme-to-be-doubled-to-20-lakh-sitharaman/articleshow/111950024.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Loan limit under MUDRA scheme to be doubled to ₹20 lakh: Sitharaman</a>

Union Budget 2024: When will it be presented, what time, where to watch and what are various sectors expecting?

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that the UK government remains committed to working "as quickly as possible" towards a successful conclusion to the ongoing free trade agreement (<keyword id="6381659" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="fta" source="Orion">FTA</keyword>) talks with <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>, as the majority of the substantive negotiation conversations were completed at the end of last month. At a House of Commons session on the G20 Summit in Indonesia on Thursday, the British Indian leader updated <keyword id="6354721" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="parliament" source="Orion">Parliament</keyword> that he reviewed progress on the FTA during his first meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi since taking charge at 10 Downing Street. He was questioned by <keyword id="3438106" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="opposition-labour-party" source="Orion">Opposition Labour Party</keyword> Leader Keir Starmer and his own <keyword id="107792" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="conservative-party" source="Orion">Conservative Party</keyword> MPs on the timeline for the completion of the agreement with India. "I discussed the free trade agreement with India, and both the Prime Minister of India and I committed our teams to working as quickly as possible to see if we can bring a successful conclusion to the negotiations," said Sunak. "Without negotiating all these things in public, I am pleased that the majority of the substantive negotiation conversations were concluded by the end of October. We will now work at pace with the Indian teams to try to resolve the issues and come to a mutually satisfactory conclusion," he said. More broadly, he reiterated the UK government's stance since the Diwali deadline for the FTA was missed, that he would not "sacrifice quality for speed" because it is important to take the time to get trade deals right. Sunak was questioned about his other discussions with Modi and whether he raised issues such as India's stance over the Russia-Ukraine conflict and also the UK being an exception within Europe to not be offered the e-visa facility - something he confirmed was discussed and will remain on the government's agenda. On India's "non-aligned" position on the Ukraine conflict, he claimed "enormous comfort" from the fact that the G20 communique "contained strong language of condemnation about Russia's aggression". "Our relationship and partnership with India are much broader than just a trading relationship. I was pleased to discuss increasing our security cooperation with India," said Sunak. "We also announced the mobility scheme to enable young people from India to come here and young Brits to go there, which is a sign of what is possible. Such exchanges are positive both for our countries and for the young people who benefit," he said, with reference to the new UK-India Young Professionals Scheme launched at the summit earlier this week involving 3,000 new reciprocal visa offers annually for under-30s - dubbed as "good for both Indian students and British students who want to go back and forth". On the new scheme, Labour's Indian-origin MP Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi questioned the move against the backdrop of "dog whistle" anti-immigrant rhetoric from <keyword id="6363870" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="home" source="Orion">Home</keyword> Secretary Suella Braverman's "incendiary remarks against international students that so incensed people in India". The <keyword id="312687" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="labour-leader" source="Orion">Labour Leader</keyword> also attacked Braverman for putting the FTA deal with India in doubt after indicating that she would not support it, with reference to her controversial remarks on Indians being the largest group of visa overstayers. "The Home Secretary is rightly focused - there is nothing 'dog whistle' about it - on clamping down on illegal migration, which the British people rightly expect and demand, and it is something that she and this government will deliver," Sunak said in defence of his <keyword id="6355513" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="cabinet" source="Orion">Cabinet</keyword> minister. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/draft-data-protection-bill-proposes-six-types-of-penalties/articleshow/95604456.cms">Draft Data Protection Bill proposes six types of penalties</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/pakistans-total-debt-surges-to-rs-12-trillion-in-first-quarter/articleshow/95603384.cms">Pakistan's total debt surges to Rs 12 trillion in first quarter</a>

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