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<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s top-ranked <keyword id="20430495" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="table-tennis" source="keywords">table tennis</keyword> player <keyword id="20614713" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sreeja-Akula" source="keywords">Sreeja Akula</keyword> entered the <keyword id="22577481" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Round-of-32" source="keywords">round of 32</keyword> with a clinical 4-0 win over Sweden's Christina <keyword id="22577480" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kallberg" source="keywords">Kallberg</keyword> at the <keyword id="20006192" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Paris-Olympics" source="keywords">Paris Olympics</keyword> here on Sunday. Sreeja, who had created history by becoming the first Indian paddler to win a <keyword id="22155130" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WTT-Contender" source="keywords">WTT Contender</keyword> <keyword id="22314061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="singles-title" source="keywords">singles title</keyword>, registered a 11-4, 11-9, 11-7, 11-8 victory in 30 minutes over the Swede. The Indian had little trouble bagging the first set but was stretched in the second, and her rival continued to do that in the next two sets as well. In the third set, Sreeja and Kallberg went neck-to-neck till 7-5, but the Indian found her bearings just in time to pocket it. Sreeja made the early running in the fourth set, taking a 9-3 lead, but a few unforced errors and a couple of good smashes helped Kallberg narrow the lead to 9-7 and then to 10-8. But a powerful unanswered forehand to the right corner of the table propelled Sreeja to the next round. In the other matches of the day, Manika Batra will face Anna Hursey of Great Britain while veteran <keyword id="20440125" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sharath-kamal" source="keywords">Sharath Kamal</keyword> will take on <keyword id="22560951" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deni-kozul" source="keywords">Deni Kozul</keyword> of Slovenia.

Paris Olympics: India's top-ranked table tennis player Sreeja Akula outclasses Kallberg, enters Round of 32

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Sweden has applied to join NATO, and the alliance has largely welcomed its potential addition.</li><li>NATO officials are especially interested in Sweden's air force, which has dozens of advanced jets.</li></ul>Even as Sweden prepares to join NATO, Sweden's air force has a problem. Its most experienced fighter pilots are quitting."In the fall, around half of the Swedish Armed Forces' fighter pilots may take leave or resign altogether," <a href="https://www-svt-se.translate.goog/nyheter/inrikes/halften-av-stridspiloterna-slutar-till-hosten-citat?_x_tr_sl=sv&amp;_x_tr_tl=en&amp;_x_tr_hl=en-US&amp;_x_tr_pto=wapp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Swedish broadcaster SVT</a> reported in July.The problem is changes to the retirement system, according to the trade union representing the pilots."In the past, pilots have been able to retire at the age of 55," Jesper Tengroth, spokesman for the Swedish Association of Military Officers, told Insider. "But for those born in 1988 or later, the retirement age was raised a few years ago to 67, without any compensation."<div type="image" title="Sweden military air force pilots" height="1280" width="1920" msid="93763463" hostid="261" sizebytes="286618"></div>Even Swedish leaders admit there is a problem. "Overnight, they all had their retirement age raised at once," said Maj. Gen. Carl-Johan Edström, chief of the Swedish Air Force. "The fact that a number of pilots are applying for leave is almost 100% linked to the new pension agreement."Many of those pilots feel betrayed. "There are a lot of people my age who have been trained and employed under certain premises which have since been removed," one pilot told SVT.Not surprisingly, media in Russia — which is unhappy with formerly nonaligned <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197737.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sweden joining NATO</a> — is playing up the story. "In recent years, the Swedish Armed Forces have been struggling to recruit new pilots and retain existing staff," state-controlled outlet <a href="https://sputniknews.com/20220715/swedish-fighter-pilots-leaving-en-masse-over-scant-pay-low-confidence-1097331058.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sputnik News</a> said.There are other reasons for the pilot exodus, Jan Kallberg, a non-resident senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Insider."I think this has been ongoing for a long time regarding the pilots," said Kallberg, himself a former Swedish army officer. "I think it's the tip of the iceberg. They have felt mistreated for generations."<div type="image" title="Swedish C-130 Hercules aircraft" height="1382" width="2000" msid="93763464" hostid="261" sizebytes="122286"></div>One issue is relatively low pay compared to the civilian sector, including commercial airlines that are hungry for pilots and willing to pay high salaries.Another is post-Cold War defense cuts that slashed the number of flying slots in the air force. "That means that instead of leaving as a pilot at 55, they're now stuck in a defense desk job" for years until they eligible to retire, Kallberg said. Sweden's government intends to ramp up defense spending in the coming years but is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-attack-causes-sweden-to-up-defenses-reconsider-nato-2022-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still debating how to do so</a>.Unlike the US military, whose personnel receive a housing allowance, Swedish pilots pay for their own housing. Sweden's entry into NATO could result in some mothballed airbases being reactivated, which in turn would require pilots to pay for new accommodations when they transfer to the new facilities.Ironically, the question most likely to worry NATO leaders – how will a pilot shortage affect Sweden's military capability – may actually be the least difficult. Sweden <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-alliance-leaders-see-benefit-in-swedish-finnish-fighter-jets-2022-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has a potent air force</a>, core of which is six squadrons comprising 96 JAS 39 C/D Gripen fighters.However, Sweden's main contribution to NATO isn't jet fighters but geography, argues Kallberg. "Sweden gives operational depth in the high north. NATO will be able to operate air wings from multiple Swedish airfields."<div type="image" title="Swedish Air Force pilot in JAS-39C Gripen" height="1331" width="2000" msid="93763465" hostid="261" sizebytes="116810"></div>Previously, NATO had to rely on a few bases on the Norwegian coast to project power into the Barents Sea, which also borders <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-navy-drills-arctic-as-us-british-navy-leave-barents-2020-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sensitive military bases in northern Russia</a>.Sweden is not only a larger nation with more strategic depth than Norway, but it also offers access to both the Barents and the Baltic seas, including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-special-operations-drills-in-alaska-sweden-show-chokepoint-concern-2021-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bases on Baltic islands</a> that could enable NATO to counter Russian naval and air power in the vital Baltic region."If you want to conduct deterrence — or support a fight — in the Baltic, Sweden is a natural staging area," Kallberg said.Kallberg does see problems in the Swedish military that need to be fixed. While Sweden has a long tradition of contributing troops to UN peacekeeping missions, its army — which uses conscripted troops — is unaccustomed to operating in larger formations for the sort of big-unit combat that might characterize a NATO-Russia war.But Sweden is serious about meeting its NATO commitments, Kallberg said. "They know they will have to come up with the troops and assets."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy Magazine and other publications. He holds a master's in political science. Follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LinkedIn</a>.

NATO is eager for Sweden's air force to join the alliance, but Swedish fighter pilots aren't happy with their bosses

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine only needs to advance 10 miles to "crush the Russian army," says a war expert.</li><li>Despite the West calling the counteroffensive "grim," Jan Kallberg says it's making "substantial progress."</li></ul>Victory for Ukraine is closer than the West thinks, <a href="https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to the Center for European Policy Analysis</a>.Despite Western media's bleak take on Ukraine's counteroffensive, "substantial progress" is being made.The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/17/ukraine-counteroffensive-melitopol/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Washington Post called</a> the counteroffensive's development "grim", the <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/20/ukraines-sluggish-counter-offensive-is-souring-the-public-mood" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Economist called</a> it "sluggish", and <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4148753-ukraines-offensive-is-stalling-and-the-west-owns-a-portion-of-the-blame/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Hill</a> said it was "stalling."Despite these pessimistic analyses, <a href="https://cepa.org/author/jan-kallberg/" target="_blank" title="Posts by Jan Kallberg" rel="author noopener">Jan Kallberg</a> of the CEPA says that Russian generals will know Ukraine is making progress, even if the West doesn't.Where intelligence analysts see distances on maps of southern Ukraine, military planners see something very different. They apply military math and calculate that Ukraine does not need to advance 50 miles to "crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications"— 10 miles will suffice to make headway, wrote Kallberg.Ukraine can break significant ground by bringing Russia's ground line of communication under its guns and achieve fire control of the land corridor to Crimea, he wrote.When Ukraine liberated Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia on August 22, it was a major breakthrough because of Russia's furious attempts to hold it. From here, the Ukrainian counteroffensive needs to advance 7-10 miles to disrupt Russia's east-west transport routes, inhibiting the Russian army's ability to mobilize and fight.That said, when Ukrainian forces on Wednesday raised the national flag in the settlement of Robotyne in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, they had advanced only six miles south of the frontline town of Orikhiv, from where the counteroffensive began on June 4.But while the counteroffensive has been slow thus far, it could be gaining momentum. Ukrainian forces believe that the most challenging line of Russian defenses in southern Ukraine is behind them, and the advance will now be more efficient, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-will-speed-up-advance-southern-front-commander-2023-08-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reports</a>. Ukraine is now closing in on its goal of covering all the terrain between them and the Sea of Azov, splitting Putin's army of occupation in two, CEPA reports.<h1>"Ukraine will speed up advance on southern front"</h1><div type="image" title="Ukrainian soldiers of the Separate Assault Battalion 'Skala' enter the embattled village of Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, in this screengrab taken from a handout video released on August 25, 2023. Separate Assault Battalion 'Skala' of the Ukrainian Armed Forces." height="1121" width="1494" msid="103107567" hostid="261"></div>On August 26, a commander fighting in the south <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-will-speed-up-advance-southern-front-commander-2023-08-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Reuters</a> that Ukrainian forces will now be able to advance more quickly.As Ukraine narrows in on this sought-out territory at several spots along the frontline, its rocket artillery could strike the Russian land bridge from different angles."Next, we have (the town of) Berdiansk, and then more. I made it clear to my fighters at once: our goal is not Robotyne, our goal is (the Sea of) Azov," the Ukrainian commander, who uses the call sign "Skala,"eponymous with the battalion which he leads, told Reuters.Ukrainian troops had now entered territories where there were only "Russian logistics" groups and where he made clear he expected Russian defences to be less difficult to break through.<h2>Russian military bloggers are gloomy</h2><div type="image" title="Ukraine troops machine gun Zaporizhzhia" height="1333" width="1777" msid="103107569" hostid="261"></div>The Chairman of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-crossed-first-line-russian-defense-gen-milley-2023-8">US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, has also confirmed this week</a> that Ukraine had finally battled its way through Russia's first defensive line.In its latest assessment, the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/25/europe/ukraine-offensive-robotyne-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">per CNN</a>, Ukrainian forces "advanced closer to the Russian second line of defense in the Robotyne area … further widening their breach of Russian defensive lines in the area."Gloomy <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/25/europe/ukraine-offensive-robotyne-intl/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Russian military bloggers</a> appear to agree with the assessments of Ukrainian success.One Russian blogger writing about the upturn in Ukraine's fighting fortunes said: "The bastards are rapidly advancing, covered by artillery strikes."

To 'crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications,' Ukraine needs to advance 10 more miles, says war expert

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saab's JAS 39 Gripen is considered to be a highly capable 4.5-generation fighter jet.</li><li>Despite its high regard, the Gripen has often lost out on sales to US jets like the fifth-gen F-35.</li></ul>Why can't Sweden's Saab export its advanced Gripen fighter? It's America's fault, Saab's CEO says. Because of the US's clout in the international defense market, other nations are much more likely to buy its aircraft, such as the F-35."It is extremely frustrating, to say the least, and I can say that it is not about the [Gripen] product that we have developed and manufactured," <a href="https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/saab-ceo-frustrated-at-slow-pace-of-gripen-sales" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Saab CEO Micael Johansson told reporters</a> in August. "If it had been a completely level playing field in terms of not talking about security, politics, and other areas, then I think we would have been much better off.""In many countries, the leverage of the US is tremendous. They are not so easy to work against," Johansson said.The Gripen is something of a runner-up in the fighter world, frequently a contender when nations from Canada to India are shopping for fighters. Yet it somehow rarely emerges as the winner. Its nemesis is the F-35.<div type="image" title="Norway Sweden F-35 JAS 39 Gripen B-52" height="867" width="1157" msid="94691655" hostid="261"></div>What is likely particularly galling for Swedes is that neighboring Finland — which opted to join NATO alongside Stockholm after Russia's invasion of Ukraine — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/militaries-in-europe-are-buying-the-f35-fighter-jet-2022-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decided to buy the F-35</a> to replace its aging US-made F/A-18EF Super Hornet jets.In 2014 referendum, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-vote-gripen/swiss-voters-narrowly-block-deal-to-buy-saab-fighter-jets-projection-idUSBREA4H05920140518" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Swiss voters said</a> the Swiss Air Force shouldn't acquire Gripens. The government instead pursued F-35s, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-activists-drop-campaign-against-f-35-fighter-deal-2022-09-20/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signing</a> a $5.5 billion deal for 36 of the jets in September. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic is ending its lease of Gripens in favor of purchasing F-35s.It does seem a bit unfair. While the Gripen is not a cutting-edge fifth-generation stealth aircraft like the F-35, it is considered a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/swedens-jas39-gripen-may-be-worlds-best-nonstealth-fighter-jet-2021-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly capable 4.5-generation fighter</a>. It can reach Mach 2 and supercruise, which allows it to fly at supersonic speed without resorting to a fuel-guzzling afterburner.It is agile and carries Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles with a range of up to 80 miles. It is also designed to operate from improvised airstrips <a href="https://www.saab.com/newsroom/stories/2020/april/swaf-gripen-pilots-train-on-national-highway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">such as highways</a>, which is useful if fixed airbases are knocked out.<div type="image" title="Czech JAS-39 Gripen" height="1328" width="2000" msid="94691656" hostid="261"></div>However, while several countries fly the Gripen — including Brazil, South Africa, and Thailand — it has a much smaller customer base than US aircraft like the F-35 and F-16.One problem may be Sweden itself, which is an odd country in terms of defense. It maintained <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-attack-causes-sweden-to-up-defenses-reconsider-nato-2022-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">neutrality in the World Wars and the Cold War</a>, but it also has a huge arms industry that makes popular weapons, such as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sending-at4-basic-deadly-anti-tank-weapon-to-ukraine-2022-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AT-4 anti-tank rockets</a> used by the US military.Swedish politicians are not aggressive in lobbying other nations to buy Swedish weapons the way that US, French, and other leaders are, according to Elisabeth Braw, a foreign policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute."Since defense equipment lasts for decades and needs to be continually updated, foreign governments want to be extremely sure of the relationship they're entering into," Braw wrote for <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/25/sweden-gripen-sell-export-fighter-jets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Foreign Policy</a> in August. "Having some companies bid with massive government backing for the deal while Swedish companies bid with only modest government engagement clearly suggests to foreign governments that the Swedish government is just not that into them."Another problem is that Swedish governments have tended to be liberal, though the far-right made strong gains in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/14/swedish-pm-concedes-election-defeat-to-bloc-led-by-far-right-sweden-democrats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent election</a>.<div type="image" title="Swedish Air Force pilot in JAS-39C Gripen" height="1331" width="2000" msid="94691657" hostid="261"></div>"Swedish politicians were more interested in discussing alternative energy, gender equality, economic cooperation, and other soft questions," Jan Kallberg, a nonresident senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis, told Insider. "Pushing for arms sales was not a good fit for their agenda. The Ukraine war has changed these conditions, but it is too late in the game when the sales cycle for arms is 10-plus years."Ultimately, arms sales, like war, isn't fair. Regardless of the Gripen's merits, the fact is that Sweden is a nation of just 10 million people, and even though it has a tradition of providing UN peacekeeping forces and recently decided to join NATO, it hardly has a reputation for a muscular foreign policy.To many nations, American arms come with an extra perk: Washington's goodwill, which could mean US support in a crisis."US influence comes less from the US, and more from the Europeans themselves," Kallberg said. "As Russia becomes more aggressive, European nations want stronger ties and interoperable equipment with the US. Purchasing the F-35 makes it happen."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds a master's in political science. Follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LinkedIn</a>.

Sweden's Saab built one of the world's best non-stealth fighters, but its CEO says that's not enough to outsell US jets

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Elon Musk expressed his disappointment in Ukraine's summer counteroffensive in an <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1703534484258242744">X post</a> on Sunday.</li><li>"So much death for so little," Musk wrote in his post.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> — who <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-ukraine-zelenskyy-starlink-access-crimea-russia-invasion-2023-9">Ukrainian officials</a> recently blasted for blocking an attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet — derided the success of <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-chief-ukraine-counteroffensive-could-only-30-days-left-2023-9">Ukraine's summer counteroffensive</a> on Sunday."So much death for so little," Musk wrote in a <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1703534484258242744?s=20">post</a> on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday.Musk was responding to venture capitalist <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://twitter.com/DavidSacks">David Sacks'</a> thread on the topic.Sacks <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1670923154443882496?s=20">first started the thread</a> on June 19, arguing that the counteroffensive "is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives" of rolling back Russia's territorial gains and kickstarting peace negotiations. Sacks has been <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1703529859920916863?s=20">updating his thread frequently</a> with articles on the subject. The September 17 <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1703529859920916863">post</a> Musk was responding to appeared to be a map of Ukraine, with the caption: "UPDATE: "Ukrainian territorial gains from their much-vaunted counteroffensive [highlighted in blue] are so miniscule they can barely be seen on a map." Musk, for his part, has weighed in many times on the war in Ukraine.In October 2022, Musk <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000?s=20">posted</a> a peace plan proposal on X. This plan involved Ukraine recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and "remaining neutral" by not joining NATO.Musk's idea drew <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-ambassador-elon-musk-russia-crimea-twitter-poll-response-2022-10">widespread condemnation</a> from Ukrainian officials at the time, with Ukrainian diplomat Andrii Melnyk <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://twitter.com/MelnykAndrij/status/1576977000178208768?s=20">telling</a> the billionaire to "fuck off." Anton Gerashchenko, an advisor to the minister of internal affairs in Ukraine, <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1576982280920518657?s=20">said</a> Musk's pro-Russia stance made it seem like the Russians had hacked his social media account.Musk also effectively sabotaged a Ukrainian attack on Russia's navy vessels last year when he <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-carried-out-exact-kind-strike-russia-elon-musk-blocked-2023-9">refused to turn on access to the SpaceX-run Starlink satellites</a>, per an excerpt from the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-biographer-walter-isaacson-demon-mode-twitter-tesla-spacex-2023-6">Walter Isaacson</a>-penned biography about Musk.Ukraine launched its counteroffensive on Russia in June, per the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine">Council on Foreign Relations</a>. War analyst <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://cepa.org/author/jan-kallberg/">Jan Kallberg</a> at the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/">Center for European Policy Analysis</a> said last month that the counteroffensive was making incremental but "substantial progress."Representatives for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider sent outside regular business hours.

Elon Musk mocked Ukraine's summer counteroffensive in a stinging post on X: 'So much death for so little'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Demand and production of Western weaponry has gone way up.</li><li>This includes gear that has been around for decades, and even some where production had stopped.</li></ul>Russia's invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a surge in demand, orders, and manufacturing of Western weaponry, including decades-old equipment and even gear that had gone out of production.The invasion has sparked concern across the West that its militaries do not have enough ammunition and equipment if a major power like Russia decides to attack them.And also that some particularly key types of weaponry are in worryingly short supply.Manufacturing has increased, but experts warn it's not enough for Western countries' needs — both for themselves and for what they want to give to Ukraine.Jan Kallberg, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and a fellow at the Army Cyber Institute at West Point, describes weapons orders as having been relatively low."And suddenly they see a surge in sales, a need, a demand that I would say hasn't been seen since the forties or at least the fifties when the Cold War really took off," he told BI.<h2 id="530204d6-601d-4e9f-a591-bf05b2cfa3dd">More orders and manufacturing</h2>Western defense budgets are surging, while countries in the Middle East are also increasing their spending amid conflicts in the region.The result is more orders and manufacturing, even of Western equipment where production had stopped.In January, the US Army <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-orders-m777-howitzer-parts-bae-systems-ukraine-success-2024-1">signed a $50 million contract</a> to restart production of M777 howitzer parts — the first new order in five years — to be sent to Ukraine.Norway plans to invest to improve the delivery times of its National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.kongsberg.com/kda/news/news-archive/2024/spain-orders-new-nasams-systems-to-modernise-air-defence-capabilities/">demand up in Europe</a>.The US Army also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/06/04/us-army-himars-lockheed/">placed</a> a new $1.9 billion order for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-likely-used-us-supplied-himars-on-targets-in-russia-2024-6">HIMARS</a>), which have been used successfully in Ukraine.Its maker, Lockheed Martin, is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheeds-himars-plant-gearing-up-meet-demand-after-ukraine-success-2023-02-28/">increasing production</a> as well as its production of the antitank missile system.<div type="image" title="Ukraine missile" height="683" width="1024" msid="111516323" hostid="261" sizebytes="65462"></div>German arms maker Diehl is planning to increase production of the IRIS-T air defense system, while France has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.barrons.com/news/france-orders-firms-to-prioritise-anti-air-missile-orders-c368e484">ordered</a> companies involved in making Aster air defense missiles to prioritize those contracts.Demand for the Patriot surface-to-air missile system, first used in the 1990s but upgraded since, has also dramatically increased. This includes a coalition of European countries jointly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/01/03/european-nations-team-up-to-buy-patriot-missiles-in-55-billion-deal/">ordering</a> up to 1,000 missiles earlier this year.Lockheed Martin <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defensenews.com/land/2024/04/09/how-companies-plan-to-ramp-up-production-of-patriot-missiles/">said</a> production of Patriot missiles has increased from 350 a year in 2018 to 500 last year and 550 this year.Timothy Wright, a missile technology expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the size of the production increase compared to actual demand shows industries and governments have not responded enough."I don't think we are learning the whole entire lesson just yet," he said.The US seems aware of the backlog, with the Financial Times <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50-cff7f457a126">reporting</a> last month that the US is halting open orders for Patriot interceptor missiles until Ukraine is better supplied.Mark Cancian, a defense strategy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said many new orders are for air defense systems.The West had stopped investing in them after the Cold War when it ceased to see Russia as the primary threat, he said, but now, seeing Russia's missile and drone salvos, demand is back.<h2 id="69c0821b-c3aa-45cd-9d7f-cfe34e8f9057">Ready for Russia</h2>Western militaries have not spent the last decades building their arsenals with a major adversary like Russia in mind, experts warn.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures in a black coat beside men in camouflage" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111516334" hostid="261" sizebytes="126036"></div>Russia has one of the world's biggest militaries and its war in Ukraine shows it is willing to commit to a grinding, brutal fight where it incurs a lot of losses.Russia has also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-again-has-enough-missiles-to-hammer-ukraine-and-critical-targets-2024-1">ramped up its wartime production</a>, which could aid it in the future and not just against Ukraine.Some European countries have warned that Russia could soon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-not-stopped-in-ukraine-all-europe-problem-lithuania-pm-2024-3#:~:text=%22If%20Putin%20is%20not%20stopped,of%20percentage%20of%20its%20GDP.">attack another European nation</a> if it is victorious in Ukraine.That would likely drag the US into a wider war, due to NATO's collective defense clause.<h2 id="d6d103c2-fe5e-45d5-833e-88f9c536de83">Slow progress</h2>Ukraine has used lots of different weaponry in its fightback against Russia, and has seen notable successes despite not getting the West's most advanced or modern gear.Mattias Eken, a missile defense expert at the RAND Corporation, said the West will be "reassured" by how its equipment is "working and sometimes pulling off quite amazing things."But, he warned, "the problem is mass."Ukraine's allies want enough equipment both to give more to Ukraine and to boost their own arsenals.That dual need has been a problem for Ukraine. Some European countries have cited the need to keep their own arsenals full when saying they could not give more to Ukraine.Talking about air defenses, Cancian said: "Everyone agrees that there aren't enough. They sped up production to a degree, but there's a limit to what you can do."<div type="image" title="Ukraine soldier MANPADS shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111516340" hostid="261" sizebytes="90298"></div>Giorgio Di Mizio, an air warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the problem is demand compared to capacity, not countries' unwillingness to spend.Making new equipment takes time, and there are long backlogs.Industry production will need to ramp up more significantly to address the issues.But Kallberg said the industry needs guarantees. "If you were an executive in the defense industry, you would ask yourself: 'If I ramp up all my production now, what type of commitment can I get from governments that they will keep buying?'"One solution would have been countries ramping up their orders and production earlier in the war, Di Mizio said."Maybe governments thought of this war as a short-term issue," he said. But he said it was easy to criticize now, with hindsight.He also said the defense industry had a way of working that was more suited to peacetime than war, "and we haven't made changes."

Russia has forced the West to ramp up production of older weapons — even gear it wasn't making any more

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine's intelligence chief told CNN there may be more attacks on Russian soil.</li><li>He talked about a hypothetical plan that would hit critical infrastructure and military targets.</li></ul>Ukraine's intelligence chief hinted that his country would conduct more attacks on Russian soil following a string of unclaimed attacks that took place on Russia's oil and gas infrastructure.Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's defense intelligence directorate, <a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/budanov-ukraine-russia-war-intl/index.html">told CNN</a> that drone attacks on Russian soil were "quite possible.""Hypothetically, there is a plan according to which all this happens," he said. "And I believe that this plan includes all the major critical infrastructure facilities and military infrastructure facilities of the Russian Federation."Over the past few weeks, Ukraine appears to have been targeting oil and gas infrastructure in Russia with small, cheap drones that can bypass Russian air defenses, as Business Insider's Alia Shoaib <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-attacks-russian-energy-infrastructure-small-cheap-drones-2024-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">reported</a>.In the interview with CNN, Budanov refused to take responsibility for drone attacks that have taken place on Russian soil, which is in line with Ukraine's usual response to such events.Ukraine has largely refused to take responsibility when attacks happen in Russia, although it sometimes hints at its involvement.Budanov said attacks on Russian soil mean the country's citizens finally "see the real picture," and that helps Ukraine."They see burning oil depots, destroyed buildings in factories and plants, and so on. This is all beneficial," he said.Russia restricts information about the conflict to its citizens, and punishes criticism of it, all while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-putin-politics-motive-2023-6?r=US&amp;IR=T">painting its invasion as a positive for Ukrainians</a>.One expert told Business Insider last year that drone attacks on Moscow <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moscow-drone-attack-wakes-up-russians-fear-of-war-expert-2023-5?r=US&amp;IR=T">meant that Russians were being forced to stop ignoring the war</a>.Attacks within Russia appear to have made use of older, Soviet-era weaponry, or drones that Ukraine could get without Western help.Ukraine's allies have said that they don't want the weaponry they've given to be used against targets on Russian soil, something Ukraine has agreed to.Ukraine is busy manufacturing more of its own weaponry, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-missile-hit-930-miles-inside-russia-nearly-ready-report-2023-9?r=US&amp;IR=T">including a missile that could hit targets 930 miles inside Russia</a>. Ukraine says it would use such weapons to hit military targets, not civilian ones.Ukraine's navy chief <a target="_blank" href="https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-would-win-war-faster-if-it-could-fire-british-weapons-into-russia-head-of-navy-says-13057773">told Sky News this week</a> that Ukraine would win the war faster if it had been given long-range weapons earlier, and was allowed to use them to hit inside Russia.Jan Kallberg, a defense and security expert at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, told BI in a recent interview that it was unfair to Ukraine that it cannot strike into Russia even though Russian launches many strikes from within its own borders."It is not fair to Ukrainians that they get hit in Kyiv as they sit in a coffee shop by a missile that is just targeting the civilian population," he said. "Meanwhile, the whole infrastructure in Russia just across the border is unaffected, which can easily be hit."

Ukraine's intelligence chief hints at more attacks on Russian soil, targeting critical infrastructure

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine says it has shot down 25 Russian Kinzhal missiles with Patriot systems since last May.</li><li>Any such kill improves the Patriot's accuracy and algorithms, benefiting other users of the system.</li></ul>Ukraine's made good use of its Western-provided Patriot air-defense systems, shooting down plenty of Russian missiles, aircraft, and drones, including some advanced, albeit overhyped, weaponry.But the intercepts, while a win for Ukraine, are also gathering hoards of data for other Patriot operators, making the system smarter and better. It's just one example of how the war in Ukraine is, as one missile-defense expert told Business Insider, an "intelligence bonanza."And as Ukraine defeats threats, there's also a growing recognition of the importance of robust air and missile defenses, vital for defending and deterrence and, in Ukraine's case, survival amid an increase in missile and drone attacks.On Tuesday, Ukraine said it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-it-beat-all-of-russias-unbeatable-kinzhal-missiles-2024-1">shot down</a> all 10 of the new Kinzhals fired during a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-missile-blast-sounded-like-armageddon-ukrainian-lawmaker-says-2024-1">vicious air assault</a>, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine praising the incident as "what heroism supplied with advanced systems looks like." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, too, <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1742129754709410210?s=20">hailed Western-provided air defenses</a> like Patriots, IRIS-T, and NASAMS for saving "hundreds of lives."The reported kills nearly doubled the tally of Kinzhals destroyed in the war. Just Sunday, Ukraine said it had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsweek.com/patriot-systems-have-downed-15-undefeatable-russian-kinzhal-missileskyiv-1856836">shot down 15 Kinzhal missiles</a> using Patriot batteries since the first recorded intercept last May, which was confirmed by the Pentagon.<div type="image" title="Serviceman patrols in front of the Patriot air defence system during Polish military training on the missile systems at the airport in Warsaw, Poland February 7, 2023." height="3648" width="5472" msid="106554802" hostid="261"></div>A Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson, Col. Yurii Ihnat, praised the Patriot's ability to counter a variety of missile threats. The rate at which the Patriot may have intercepted Kinzhals indicates Ukraine has learned well how to operate its Western air defenses and developed a strong defense against the missile the Russians have touted as an unstoppable hypersonic weapon.But Ukraine is not the only one benefiting from these engagements. For other Patriot operators, such as the US, new data about how to counter specific threats, such as the Kinzhal, is incredibly useful information."Every Ukrainian downing of Russian hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal with the Patriot missiles will improve the Patriot missile intercept algorithm — and increase accuracy for all Patriot systems, a benefit for the US, the rest of NATO, and other Patriot AD users," Jan Kallberg, a senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis who was a professor at West Point, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/Cyberdefensecom/status/1742377516398965099?s=20">posted on X</a>.That data is valuable for both the US and its NATO allies, giving them a rare opportunity to live test systems and learn more about how not only to engage but also defeat Russian weaponry."The larger point is the intelligence bonanza that we are capitalizing on by observing or capturing Russian systems" without actually having any troops on the ground, Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who's the director of the Missile Defense Project there, told Business Insider. He said the opportunity was giving the US valuable data on Russia for potential future conflicts. <div type="image" title="patriot" height="1365" width="2048" msid="106554803" hostid="261"></div>Russia's Kinzhal is an advanced air-launched ballistic missile that has been celebrated by Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, for its "unique flight characteristics," high speed, maneuverability, and ability to "overcome all existing" and "prospective antiaircraft and antimissile defense systems," characteristics that supposedly make it unbeatable.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/patriot-missile-system-ukraine-new-headaches-for-russia-2022-12">MIM-104 "Patriot" air-defense battery</a>, an older system that first entered service in the 1980s but has nonetheless been praised by the Pentagon as "one of the world's most advanced air-defense systems," arrived on the battlefield in April 2023. The system, once operational, quickly put an end to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/patriot-kill-shot-impressive-russian-kinzhal-hypersonic-ballistic-missile-experts-2023-5">Russian narratives about the Kinzhal</a>, shooting one down in early May.Later that month, Ukraine said its Patriot air defenses <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kinzhal-killing-patriot-detection-russia-gunning-for-system-losses-2023-5">eliminated six more</a> of these missiles.The Kinzhal is an advanced capability, but so far, it hasn't really lived up to its overhyped narrative of being an unstoppable hypersonic missile."The Kinzhal doesn't fit into the category of either a scramjet cruise missile or a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle," Karako explained.He added that the term "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/complex-air-defense-countering-hypersonic-missile-threat">hypersonic</a>," when used to refer to the Kinzhal missile, tended to be in a more literal sense, as in it could exceed speeds of Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound.But while the Kinzhal is going fast, "it doesn't really constitute sustained and controlled flight in the hypersonic flight regime," Karako explained, adding that "it's essentially a somewhat maneuvering ballistic missile."Maj. Peter Mitchell, an air-defense officer who's an instructor at West Point, previously <a target="_blank" href="https://mwi.westpoint.edu/hypersonic-hype-russias-kinzhal-missiles-and-the-lessons-for-air-defense/">characterized Russia's Kinzhal</a> as "more akin to a giant lawn dart loaded with explosives," saying it wasn't capable of sharp turns or quick changes in flight direction.That doesn't mean Ukraine's reported wins aren't impressive — or that it's not a boon for the US and its partners to see Russia use the Kinzhal. Instead, it's quite the opposite.Similar to just about any data collected in the war, whether it's information on how Russia's operating its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-making-exploding-drones-arsenal-bigger-deadlier-documents-2023-8">Shahed one-way exploding drones</a>, defending against Ukrainian strikes, or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-rethinking-how-much-ammunition-it-needs-ukraine-war-2023-11">pounding Ukrainian defenses</a>, the takeaway is a beneficial one for the West: By helping defend Ukraine, they learn more about how their enemy could fight them in the future.<div type="image" title="The Patriot system firing in Greece in November 2017 as part of a NATO exercise." height="1306" width="2000" msid="106554804" hostid="261"></div>Ukraine's successes with the Patriot and other Western systems also highlight the enormous importance of air and missile defenses.While the drone war being fought between Ukraine and Russia has been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-fighting-drone-war-us-military-was-waiting-for-2023-8">eye-opening for many armies</a>, including the US, the air campaigns have also reinforced the realization of how much armed forces need robust air defenses.The successful engagement of "high-end missile threats from a major power like Russia is ratifying and bolstering the demand signal for both the Patriot family and other air defenses more broadly," Karako said.During his December visit to Washington to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sending-one-aid-package-ukraine-funding-ends-white-house-2023-12">plead for more aid</a> amid <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-changes-tone-ukraine-support-as-long-as-we-can-2023-12">Republican roadblocks</a> in Congress, Zelenskyy expressed a dire need for more Patriot batteries in Ukraine. But the demand goes beyond that.Take, for example, recent news of a handful of NATO nations' plans to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_221626.htm">buy 1,000 Patriot missiles</a> or Japan's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japan-to-send-u-s-patriot-missiles-creating-deeper-pool-for-ukraine-air-defenses-ae8d4316">landmark decision</a> to remove its self-imposed ban on weapons exports to transfer dozens of missiles to the US. Other air-defense systems, too, have been prioritized, as seen in the US aid packages to Israel in recent months."We're seeing an increased salience and demand for air and missile defense because missiles have become 'weapons of choice,'" Karako said. He said air and missile defense was not a peripheral concern but rather a central concern.

Shooting down Russia's overhyped missiles with Patriots is a win for more than just Ukraine. The war is an 'intelligence bonanza' for the West.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine's use of the US-made Patriot system has been celebrated.</li><li>The weapon had a chequered reputation due to its performance in past conflicts.</li></ul>Any lingering doubts about the effectiveness of the US-made Patriot air-defense system at shooting down airborne threats have finally been dispelled by the system's performance in Ukraine, experts told Business Insider.The system's intercept rate in past conflicts left it with a mixed reputation, experts said, and sparked debates over whether it should be sent to Ukraine in the first place.Having strong air-defense systems is critical for Ukraine. Since Russia <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-putin-politics-motive-2023-6">launched its full-scale invasion</a> in late February 2022, Ukraine has been regularly using its air-defense systems to defend against missile and drone attacks. Those attacks have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-missile-blast-sounded-like-armageddon-ukrainian-lawmaker-says-2024-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">hit cities, killed civilians</a>, destroyed homes, and damaged essential energy infrastructure, knocking out power.But for a little over a year, Ukraine really only had less-capable, Soviet-era air-defense systems. Allies started to give Ukraine more advanced ones but hadn't yet committed to sending Patriots.The US <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-set-to-approve-sending-patriot-missile-system-ukraine-reports-2022-12?r=US&amp;IR=T">eventually approved their move</a>. The first arrived last April, and Ukraine now has at least three, possibly five, of them. Exactly how many Ukraine has been given, as well as exactly where they are and how they are being used, has been kept secret.<div type="image" title="The Patriot missile system is a ground-based, mobile missile defense interceptor deployed by the United States to detect, track and engage unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles, and short-range and tactical ballistic missiles." height="1993" width="3000" msid="108733481" hostid="261" sizebytes="301362"></div>But one thing that is clear, the experts said, is that the Patriot has clearly been working extremely well in Ukraine.Their performance, according to Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, has been "an unmitigated success."Some experts BI spoke to argued the older, worse reputation was never fully deserved. For others, updates to the system and the way Ukraine has used it is what now elevates its reputation.Either way, the consensus now is that there is no argument against it being an extremely effective system."The Patriot has performed fairly spectacularly in Ukraine," Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at the UK's Royal United Services Institute who has followed developments in Ukraine closely, told BI.<h2>A mixed past</h2>The MIM-104 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-destroyed-key-russia-aircraft-maybe-used-patriot-missiles-experts-2024-1">Patriot missile system</a> is a ground-based, mobile surface-to-air missile battery that can down crewed and uncrewed aircraft, cruise missiles, and short-range and tactical ballistic missiles.The US first developed it in the 1960s, and it was first used on the battlefield in the Gulf War, which started in 1990. Mertens described the Patriots as having "shaky behavior" in the Gulf War. In particular, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/weapons/patriot.html">questions were raised</a> over it's effectiveness against Iraq's Scud missiles.While reports during the war pointed to impressive Patriot performance, the war's end brought a new examination of those claims, prompting both the US Army and the weapon's manufacturer, Raytheon, to defend it.A House of Representatives subcommittee investigation was launched, concluding after 10 months that there was little evidence that the Patriot hit more than a few of the Scud missiles.<div type="image" title="Two Iraqi Scud missiles in a trailor with soldiers in the background" height="1308" width="2000" msid="108733484" hostid="261" sizebytes="100064"></div>Mertens said their inadequate performance is at least partly explained by the fact that early Patriot missiles were, at that time, designed for anti-aircraft use, so they "didn't function that well against these Iraqi Scuds.""There they didn't perform that brilliantly," he said, but "we shouldn't be too critical because this was the first time we see ballistic missiles really being targeted by air defenses."Bronk said that the Patriot had "a relatively checkered and controversial combat record" as people interpreted data from the Gulf War differently."I think there's this kind of longstanding idea that Patriot doesn't really work very well because it didn't work very well on the Gulf War and I think mostly that's not correct or accurate anymore," said Timothy Wright, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.<h2>An improved weapon</h2>The Patriots were used by US allies in the Iraq war, where a number of blunders were recorded, including the shootdown of allied aircraft.These incidents included a Patriot shooting down a US F/A-18C Hornet jet in 2003, with an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna6695845">investigation</a> concluding that the Patriot had misidentified the jet as an incoming Iraqi missile and that soldiers had violated missile launch procedures. That incident killed the pilot, 30-year-old American Lt. Nathan White.Mick Ryan, a retired Major General in the Australian Army and a military strategist, attributed some of those errors to "an autonomous mode that we didn't quite understand," which has since been addressed.<div type="image" title="Patriot missile Gulf War Desert Storm" height="1307" width="2000" msid="108733487" hostid="261" sizebytes="153058"></div>Saudi Arabia has used the Patriot system against attacks by Houthi rebels, who ignited a civil war in Yemen. Recorded use of Patriots in that conflict started in 2015.The exact intercept rate of the Patriots involved in that conflict is unknown. Wright said there is a lack of exact information, but there seems to be "a pretty good success rate in my opinion."Not all experts agree. Jeffrey Lewis, a missile expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, <a target="_blank" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/28/patriot-missiles-are-made-in-america-and-fail-everywhere/">argued in 2018</a> that the system's performance in Saudi Arabia, where some missiles made it through, cast doubt over whether this system really works. Others argue that no system is flawless.Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Patriot "has been doing fairly well" there since 2015."It doesn't mean it's getting everything," he said. "It doesn't mean it's perfect. There is no weapon system that's perfect."Mertens said in that conflict, "we saw that Patriots had become far more effective than they were earlier." In Saudi Arabia, "these Patriots have had commendable and very good success rates. They haven't stopped everything, but they have stopped most of the Houthi attacks against key targets," he said.He emphasized that no air defense system is expected to shoot down every single target, but the Patriots really "have come a long way since the Gulf War."The Patriot had been improved with system's most advanced missile, the PAC-3, first used in the Iraq war.<div type="image" title="Patriot missile defense in Saudi" height="706" width="1024" msid="108733488" hostid="261" sizebytes="39702"></div>It is unconfirmed if Ukraine uses an earlier model, the PAC-2, or PAC-3s.Either way, Ryan said that by the time the system came to Ukraine, it had "gone through decades of upgrades."But, doubts remained before their appearance there.Mertens said that "before the Ukraine war, we knew that Patriot was good, at least, at intercepting older missiles.""So when these weapons were deployed to Ukraine, there was a bit of a question: How will they manage against the latest that the Russians are planning to send against it?"There, he said, it has exceeded expectations.<h2>A Ukrainian success</h2>There is no independently confirmed figure for exactly how many missiles, drones, or airplanes Ukraine's air-defense systems, including the Patriots, have shot down, or for how many they have missed.None of Ukraine's Patriot missile systems have been confirmed destroyed, though there have been Russian claims, but the system has been involved in confirmed kills of Russian aircraft and missiles. There has been clear photo evidence of some of the shootdowns.Ukraine showed off the Patriot's lethality shortly after the first Patriot batteries arrived in country, when the Russians launched large missile and drone attacks on the capital city, Kyiv.Mertens said that Russia's "whole goal was to make the attack so complex and so massive that they could get through and kill the Patriots from the start," but the Russians "failed completely.""We were again, very much surprised by what we see now, what the effectiveness of the Patriot system seems to be," he said. They just stopped that attack."The Patriot has been credited with other wins there since, and the system has "performed even better than it did in Saudi Arabia," Mertens said.Karako said "since it's gone over there, it has been pretty dang good."Bronk said that "Ukrainian operators have clearly been well trained and have worked out how to use the system in their own tactical scenarios extremely well." US Army <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-instructors-say-ukrainians-amazing-mastering-patriot-missile-system-2024-3">personnel who helped train the Ukrainians recently told BI's Jake Epstein</a> that they were "amazing" in their mastery of the system.Rajan Menon, a director at the US think tank Defense Priorities, said "without the Patriot and other systems, Ukrainian cities would be in a very bad way. American-supplied and Western-supplied air defense has been absolutely critical."Ryan said the Patriot "is incredibly effective. Those who think it's not just don't know what they're talking about."He said Ukraine's success has come in part from how it has integrated the Patriots into its network of Soviet-era and NATO-donated systems to defeat Russia's attacks.Ukraine has also praised the system. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/patriot-missile-makers-get-zelenskyy-praise-ukraine-amid-shortage-concerns-2024-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">said in January</a>: "The Russians are shocked — and I'm telling you honestly — our partners are shocked that this system really works so strong."<h2>Surprising wins</h2>A surprising Ukrainian win, for some of the experts, has been Patriots shooting down Russian Khinzal missiles, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/western-weapons-wins-against-russia-are-intelligence-bonanza-2024-1">weapons Russia had bragged were unstoppable</a>.<div type="image" title="A Kinzhal missile warhead." height="1280" width="1024" msid="108733489" hostid="261" sizebytes="100702"></div>Bronk said the air-launched ballistic missiles — which he described as "quasi-hypersonic" due to their speeds of more than five times the speed of sound and maneuverability but lack of certain other key defining characteristics of "hypersonic weapons" — are "really potentially very difficult to intercept as targets and the Patriot systems have been repeatedly and successfully engaging those."Mertens said that Russia's grand claims about its missiles were "propaganda" but still described Ukraine shooting down Khinzals as "near amazing because before the war we really wondered if we could defend ourselves against Khinzal and if we could stop them from penetrating air defenses.""Now there's far less of a question. It seems to be quite certain we can and Patriot can."Jan Kallberg, a defense and security expert at the Centre for European Policy Analysis said: "I also think that Ukraine might have been more innovative when it comes to how to use them tactically."He outlined a theory that a number of experts believe, that Ukraine has used the Patriots as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-destroyed-key-russia-aircraft-maybe-used-patriot-missiles-experts-2024-1">part of daring schemes to shoot down Russian fighter jets</a>.Bronk said the Patriots have "actually performed way beyond people's expectations in a sort of long-range, anti-air ambush kind of capacity." He said Ukraine appeared to be exploiting the system's ability to have the launcher located significantly further forward than the radar guiding it.He said the threat of Ukraine doing this means Russia has kept some jets further away from the front lines.Ukraine has been praised for its use of air defenses, including its older models, to intercept most of Russia's drones and missiles. That work has also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-air-force-enter-devastate-ukraine-if-missiles-run-out-2024-2">largely stopped Russia's much larger and more advanced air force from being able to operate</a> close to or past the front lines.If Russia's air force was able to fly across the country, the war would likely already have been lost and Kyiv left a smoking ruin, Mertens said.<h2>An uncertain future</h2>Despite their success, its not clear if the Patriots will be a lasting resource for Ukraine.Ukraine likely only has a few, maybe only three, of the Patriot batteries, which Mertens noted is "not a lot.""It's a very good system, but you can only do so much with three systems," he said.The White House and Pentagon warned in January that the supply of Patriot interceptor missiles <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-patriot-missile-supply-from-the-us-could-soon-dry-up-2024-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">could soon be unsustainable</a> due to their high cost: around $2 million to $4 million each. That expense fed into some of the initial skepticism over whether they should be sent in the first place.And Ukraine says it's running low on air defense missiles overall.<div type="image" title="Destroyed vehicles in front of a damaged residential building" height="1333" width="2000" msid="108733492" hostid="261" sizebytes="523206"></div>A former advisor to Ukraine's government <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1759282516672852081">said</a> in February that the number of Patriot missiles was "dropping to a critical level."Mertens said that with the Patriots, "they're doing amazingly well. Will they have enough missiles to keep that up? That's the number one question."Russia is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-trying-get-ukriane-use-up-all-patriot-missiles-expert-2024-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">trying to wear down Ukraine's missile stocks</a>, including the Patriots, taking advantage of stalled US aid.Bronk noted that there is a "massive global shortfall" in the supply of Patriot missiles, as the system is used in multiple countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. "This is a system that by dint of being highly effective, there is a global shortage of ammunition for it."The problem with Patriot missiles for Ukraine mirrors its main obstacle in trying to fight Russia: A critical shortage of supplies and ammunition.And air-defense supplies are one of the most important for Ukraine to have, Mertens said."Ukrainian air defenses are one of the great Ukrainian success stories of the war. Without them, the war might have been lost already. Keeping them functioning is utterly vital."

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