The nation is captivated by <keyword id="209183" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Anthony-Weiner">Anthony Weiner</keyword> — his <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/anthony-weiner-sexting-carlos-danger-daily-news-interview-2013-7">plucky refusal to quit (sexting)</a>, the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/anthony-weiner-press-conference-sex-photos-chats-the-dirty-carlos-danger-2013-7">cringeworthy press conferences</a> he gives, his intern who wrote a tell-all column for the Daily News, and his <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/barbara-morgan-olivia-nuzzi-rant-anthony-weiner-2013-7">flack who called that</a> intern a "slutbag" in a conversation with a reporter.
All of that also means he's not going to become mayor of New York.
So, Business Insider thought it would be helpful to give you a little guide to the people who might actually win the New York City mayoral race, what they stand for, and who supports them.
We think the most likely candidate to win is former city comptroller <keyword id="222826" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bill-Thompson">Bill Thompson</keyword> (D). If you don't know much about him, you're not alone. An early July Quinnipiac poll found that less than half of likely Democratic primary voters were prepared to express an opinion about him. Thompson will probably win because, unlike most of the other candidates, few voters can come up with a reason to hate him.
But City Council Speaker <keyword id="353357" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Christine-Quinn">Christine Quinn</keyword> (D) and Public Advocate Bill De Blasio (D) all stand decent chances—and you shouldn't entirely count out ex-deputy mayor Joe Lhota (R), since the last five mayor races have been won by the candidate on the Republican line.
Here's the guide:
<div class="image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">Mike Nudelman/Business Insider</div></div></div>

Anthony Weiner Is Finished - Here Are The Candidates Who Can Be The Next NYC Mayor

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:401px"><div class="image"><a href="http://mta.info/nyct/service/SouthFerryStationReopenApril2013.htm">NYC Transit/ Marc A. Hermann </a>Until the new station can be reopened, the old station will serve in its place.</div></div>The damage done by <keyword id="1428132" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Hurricane-Sandy">Hurricane Sandy</keyword> to Manhattan's South Ferry-Whitehall subway station was so extensive, repairs will take two years, New York Governor <a href="http://mta.info/nyct/service/SouthFerryStationReopenApril2013.htm">Andrew Cuomo said last week</a>.
The station opened in 2009; it cost $527 million to build.
But just 400 feet from the water and 80 feet underground, it was especially vulnerable to <keyword id="47726" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="flooding">flooding</keyword>.
<a href="http://mta.info/nyct/service/SouthFerryStationReopenApril2013.htm">According to the MTA</a>, Sandy sent 15 million gallons of salt water into the station, destroying electrical and mechanical systems.
At a December Senate hearing, then Metropolitan Transit Authority Commissioner <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/500-million-to-repair-south-ferry-station-2012-12">Joe Lhota said South Ferry-Whitehall "was completely destroyed"</a> by the hurricane. At the same hearing, Senator Chuck Schumer said the estimated cost of restoration is $500 million.
To provide service to the 10,000 daily riders who move through the area in the meantime, the <keyword id="170979" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="MTA">MTA</keyword> will reopen the old South Ferry station. That work will cost $2 million and should be complete next month.
But it will be a disappointing substitute. The old platforms are short (they will accommodate only five cars of a 10-car train) and require movable platform edge extenders, which must be refurbished.
The MTA hopes to recoup the large bill Sandy left behind through reimbursements from the Federal Transit Administration.
Here's what the South Ferry-Whitehall Station looked like after Sandy:
<div class="image-container" style="width:618px"><div class="image"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mtaphotos/8139707633/">MTA / Creative Commons</a></div></div>

It Will Take 2 Years To Repair A Subway Station Hurricane Sandy Destroyed

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>jaynemoo via <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/jayneward/3003292514/">www.flickr.com</a> creative commonsWho owns New York?</div>After three terms starting in 2001, <keyword id="66577" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Michael-Bloomberg">Michael Bloomberg</keyword> is leaving his post as Mayor of <keyword id="72226" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="New-York-City">New York City</keyword>. He gave his last State of the City address at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn yesterday at noon.
All of this means an epic race to Gracie Mansion (the Mayor's residence on the Upper East Side that Bloomberg never lived in). Most of the politicians that have thrown their hats in the ring have been waiting patiently for this moment for years.
The general election will be held on the first Tuesday of November, with primaries over the summer as late as August.
Here's who's going to play:
<ul>
<li>Speaker of the City Council, Christine Quinn (Democrat)</li>
<li>Former City Controller, Bill Thompson (Democrat)</li>
<li>NYC Public Advocate, Bill de Blasio (Democrat)</li>
<li>City Controller, John Liu (Democrat)</li>
<li>Billionaire grocery store magnate, John Catsimatedes (Republican)</li>
<li>Former MTA head, Joe Lhota (Republican)</li>
<li>Former Bronx Borough President, Adolfo Carrion Jr. (no affiliation)</li>
</ul>
Don't think for a moment, by the way, that just because NYC is a liberal town a Republican candidate can't win this — that's how Bloomberg and Giuliani both won their seats. 
That's what makes this race so fascinating (aside from the fact that these candidates are fighting to lead the capital of world, of course).
Some of New York's deepest pockets have already chosen sides, the king makers are shining up their crowns, the candidates are staffing up, and at this point it's anyone's game.

The Bloomberg Era Is Over - Here's Everything You Need To Know To Follow The Race For NYC Mayor

<div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image">Reuters/ Eduardo Munoz</div></div>New York City Mayor <keyword id="66577" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Michael-Bloomberg">Michael Bloomberg</keyword> <a href="http://nymag.com/news/politics/bloomberg/in-conversation-2013-9/index1.html" target="_blank">said in an interview with New York Magazine</a> that mayoral front-runner <keyword id="1710611" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bill-de-Blasio">Bill de Blasio</keyword> was running a campaign that he characterized as "class-warfare and racist."
Bloomberg said in the interview that the New York Times was "right" in their endorsements of Democrat Christine Quinn and Republican Joe Lhota in the mayoral race. Then he was asked by New York Magazine's Chris Smith about de Blasio.
Bloomberg said de Blasio was running a "racist" campaign, and he ripped de Blasio's strategy as one of "division."
Here's the exchange:
Q: Then there's Bill de Blasio, who's become the Democratic front-runner. He has in some ways been running a class-warfare campaign- Class-warfare and racist.
Q: Racist? I mean he's making an appeal using his family to gain support. I think it's pretty obvious to anyone watching what he's been doing. I do not think he himself is racist. It's comparable to me pointing out I'm Jewish in attracting the Jewish vote. You tailor messages to your audiences and address issues you think your audience cares about.
But his whole campaign is that there are two different cities here. And I've never liked that kind of division. The way to help those who are less fortunate is, number one, to attract more very fortunate people. They are the ones that pay the bills. The people that would get very badly hurt here if you drive out the very wealthy are the people he professes to try to help. Tearing people apart with this "two cities" thing doesn't make any sense to me. It's a destructive strategy for those you want to help the most. He's a very populist, very left-wing guy, but this city is not two groups, and if to some extent it is, it's one group paying for services for the other.
De Blasio's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

BLOOMBERG: Bill De Blasio Is Running A 'Racist' Campaign

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image">AP<keyword id="66577" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Michael-Bloomberg">Michael Bloomberg</keyword> and <keyword id="837451" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Howard-Wolfson">Howard Wolfson</keyword></div></div>Deputy Mayor Howard Wolfson attempted to smack down the mayoral candidacy of Democrat <keyword id="1710611" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bill-de-Blasio">Bill de Blasio</keyword> on Monday night, saying in an interview that he would "undo" much of the progress from the Bloomberg administration.
"You know, I think we’ve had the best 12 years of the city’s history in the last 12 years, and Bill de Blasio wants to undo that,” <a href="http://www.ny1.com/content/politics/road_to_city_hall/187772/ny1-online--wolfson-confused-by-de-blasio" target="_blank">Wolfson said in an interview on NY1</a>.
"He wants to take the city back to a different style of governing — where we had higher taxes, where we had more regulation on business, where we had more permissive policing."
<a href="http://politicker.com/2013/08/bloomberg-deputy-goes-after-bill-de-blasio-on-ny1/" target="_blank">He continued (via Politicker):</a> "I think it would be a mistake. ... I don't think we want to undo 12 of the best years in the city’s history."
Wolfson's comments were perhaps the most blistering from the Bloomberg administration on de Blasio.
Bloomberg hasn't yet given his endorsement in the race. He is said to be dissatisfied with the choices, though he reportedly favors City Council Speaker <keyword id="353357" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Christine-Quinn">Christine Quinn</keyword>. <a href="http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/mike_for_lhota_talk_f2MDkFozQcZzvpKqYLoFYJ" target="_blank">The New York Post reported</a> last week that he would be "inclined" to endorse likely Republican candidate Joe Lhota in the general election if de Blasio won the Democratic primary.
Wolfson has made his distaste with a potential de Blasio tenure as mayor clear on Twitter over the past month. Here's a sample:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Give de Blasio credit. His agenda is clear: higher taxes, bigger govt, more biz mandates. A u-turn back to the 70s. <a href="http://t.co/Ws1eL3ChFW">http://t.co/Ws1eL3ChFW</a>
— howard wolfson (@howiewolf) <a href="https://twitter.com/howiewolf/statuses/364319846290292736">August 5, 2013</a></blockquote>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
In which BdB declares Mission Accomplished in the war on crime and whistles past the Detroit graveyard. <a href="http://t.co/PCkTbMArHc">http://t.co/PCkTbMArHc</a>
— howard wolfson (@howiewolf) <a href="https://twitter.com/howiewolf/statuses/368061318286553088">August 15, 2013</a></blockquote>

Bloomberg Deputy Goes Scorched Earth On Bill De Blasio, And Claims He Would 'Undo' Bloomberg's Progress

<div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image">AP</div></div>The <keyword id="783900" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Occupy-Wall-Street">Occupy Wall Street</keyword> movement began two years ago today with protests in lower Manhattan's Zuccotti Park.
One year on, the movement was <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/story/2012-09-18/occupy-wall-street-anniversary-opinionline/57803178/1">was widely deemed a failure</a>. Two years on, we may be seeing delayed success.
On the first anniversary of the protests, The New York Times' Joe Nocera <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/15/opinion/nocera-two-days-in-september.html">declared the movement all but dead</a>. The protest sought to draw attention to rising economic inequality in America and the role its supporters say <keyword id="42111" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Wall-Street">Wall Street</keyword> banks played in perpetuating the problem.
Echoing a popular critique of the movement, Nocera said the protestors failed to create political change, or even to state the political remedies they sought, before police removed them from the park two months after they had arrived.
"...Raising the issue is the easy part," <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/15/opinion/nocera-two-days-in-september.html">Nocera wrote</a>. "The hard part is doing something about it. Without political engagement by those who want to reverse income inequality, it will continue to widen."
But today is time to reconsider this assessment. While it's true that the loose collection of left-wing protestors has not coalesced behind individual candidates in the manner of OWS' right-wing counterpart, the Tea Party, the movement's success in creating heightened awareness of income inequality and stoking populist anger toward Wall Street is beginning to pay dividends.
In no place has this success been more apparent than the race to succeed Wall Street champion Mike Bloomberg as mayor of New York City. After a Democratic primary campaign that served in large part as a referendum on Bloomberg's three terms as the city's chief executive, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/bill-thompson-concede-bill-de-blasio-article-1.1457176">the nomination ultimately went to</a> NYC public advocate <keyword id="1710611" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bill-de-Blasio">Bill de Blasio</keyword>, whose <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;ved=0CDwQqQIwAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnymag.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fcitypolitic%2Fde-blasio-lhota-2013-9%2F&amp;ei=oig3UuHKJJKl4AOFtIDQDg&amp;usg=AFQjCNHFSIBcaEFO3DjcTqoSAwCGwwx5jw&amp;bvm=bv.52164340,d.dmg">"Tale of Two Cities"</a> campaign focused extensively on New York's widening gap between the rich and poor.
In banging the drum for higher taxes on the wealthy, de Blasio latched on to an anger that may have been simmering, but had yet to catch fire before Occupy Wall Street launched its attacks on the so-called "one percent" two years ago and brought income inequality to the forefront of the national debate.

At a rally leading up to last week's Democratic primary elections, de Blasio supporters <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/09/michael_bloomberg_legacy_rejected_the_new_york_city_mayor_lost_in_new_york.html">chanted "we are the 99 percent!"</a> in a declaration of class solidarity that had not yet expressed itself until OWS gave people a vernacular with which to describe their frustrations and a target at which to direct them.
It remains to be seen whether de Blasio can <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bloomberg-bill-de-blasio-racist-quinn-lhota-2013-9">deflect claims of "class warfare"</a> and triumph over Republican nominee Joe Lhota in the general election, but his primary victory alone is music to the ears of <a href="http://www.thenation.com/article/173872/wanted-progressive-mayor#axzz2f4DJPVsX">a liberal base starving for a progressive mayor</a>.
On a national level, Occupy Wall Street's patron saint, Senator <keyword id="213453" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Elizabeth-Warren">Elizabeth Warren</keyword>, played a small but tangible role in <keyword id="6361649" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword> alumnus <keyword id="192145" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Larry-Summers">Larry Summers</keyword>' <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-withdraws-name-2013-9">decision to rescind his name from consideration for Federal Reserve</a> chair. Warren was one of four Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-fed-chair-nomination-elizabeth-warren-jon-tester-2013-9">whose expected opposition to Summers' confirmation</a> made the process unpalatable to President Barack Obama, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/summers-out-janet-yellen-federal-reserve-2013-9">a fan of Summers and his crisis-management skills</a>.
Summers' withdrawal <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/how-a-small-team-of-democrats-defeated-larry-summers-and-obama/279688/">is seen as a victory for economic progressives</a>, many of whom feared his ties to Wall Street and focus on the inflation rate would make him <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-case-for-janet-yellen-in-one-sentence-2013-9">an inadequate leader to address the nation's unemployment problems</a>.
Summers had many detractors, both on the Senate Banking Committee <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/janet-yellen-open-letter-2013-9">and beyond</a>, and it would be inaccurate to say he'd have been named <keyword id="6355253" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve">Federal Reserve</keyword> chairman were it not for Warren's intervention. But Warren's place on the committee allowed her to bring the concerns of the voters who supported <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=htX2usfqMEs">her anti-Wall Street campaign</a> to a major economic policy discussion.
It's true Occupy Wall Street hasn't achieved the tidal wave of legislative change the Tea Party was able to create, but a seat at the table is certainly a start. Maybe it's time we stop calling it a failure.

Maybe Occupy Wall Street Wasn't Such A Failure After All

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqiiYvyIxk8">YouTube</a></div>An already strange case gets stranger.
Vince Tabone, one of the men arrested in an alleged plot to fix the GOP ticket in the <a href="http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/bribing_his_way_onto_the_ballot_3XFvV67oWZHFo7bVdoCkcO">NYC Mayoral race for Queens State Senator Malcolm Smith</a>, actually works for another GOP candidate for Mayor — billionaire John Catsimatidis.
Tabone was taken into police custody this morning along with three other NYC political heavyweights — Republican Queens Councilman Dan Halloran, Smith (former NY Senate Majority Leader), and Bronx GOP head Jay Savino.
They are accused of handing out, or in Tabone's case accepting, tens of thousands of dollars in bribes to secure the GOP nod for Smith. The election is set for November.
The weird thing is that Tabone is in-house attorney for John Catsimatidis, the billionaire grocery store and gas magnate who is also running for Mayor. According to <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pub/vince-tabone/a/74a/ab0">Tabone's LinkedIn profile</a>, he's worked for Catsimatidis for five years.
<table class="image-container float_left" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDSm8isbF4s">YouTube screengrab</a>Billionaire John Catsimatidis</td></tr></table>That means he was also around for Catsimatidis' failed 2009 bid for Mayor.
And there was nothing to indicate that Tabone would support anyone else this time around. Last May, he helped write this glowing, pro-Catsimatidis Mayoral race memo from GOP chairs.<a href="http://www.cityandstateny.com/nyc-republican-chairmen-at-length-list-mayoral-wishes-demands/"> (via City &amp; State NY):</a>
"Throughout this process the Chairmen have been encouraging billionaire John Catsimatidis, who was prepared to run in 2009 before Bloomberg extended term limits, to again step forward as the preferred candidate of the Party leadership. Catsimatidis has developed a strong relationship with the Chairs based not only on his consistent support for party building efforts and for local GOP candidates, but also for his friendship, advice and counsel to all the chairmen.Catsimatidis has indicated time and again that he believes having a vibrant two party system is integral to New York’s future."
Of course, this was before Smith announced that he was considering a run in August.
The alleged plot took advantage of the Republican party's weak condition in NYC. Because so many New Yorker's are Democrats, the GOP ticket for Mayor is usually up for grabs for anyone fast enough to get the approval of 3/5 of the party bosses from each borough.
And so they could have plausibly made this work for Smith.
Perhaps Tabone truly didn't think Catsimatidis' chances were that great anyway (they're not). As a candidate the billionaire couldn't be any less like Bloomberg. He's known for making off-color statements, like this exchange he had with an NY1 reporter last December <a href="http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/12/6869784/discussing-local-taxes-catsimatidis-makes-unexpected-hitler-referen">(via Capital NY):</a>
Catsimatidis: "We shouldn't punish any one group, whether we're punishing the people that are wealthy; New York is for everybody. It's for the poor, it's for the middle class it's for the wealthy. We can't punish any one group and chase them away. Hitler punished the Jews. We can't have punishing the 2 percent group right now. We can't have —"
Robin: "Wait a second. You see raising taxes as the same as putting people in gas chambers?"
Catsimatidis: "No, no. I didn't say that."
Plus, a lot of money has already been <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/rich-donors-back-joe-lhota-for-nyc-mayor-2013-2">thrown behind former MTA Chair Joe Lhota.</a> He has the support of donors like Home Depot founder Ken Langone and hotelier James Tisch.
<a href="http://politicker.com/2013/04/john-catsimatidis-says-its-very-very-sad-that-key-ally-was-arrested/">Politicker NY</a> was able to reach Catsimatidis for comment. Here's what he said of Tabone:
“It’s very, very sad,” he said in a phone call from his doctor’s office. “I know the family. It’s sad that people create their own problems.”
This is one massive, massive problem.

Lawyer Accused Of Betraying One NYC Mayor Candidate In Plot To Rig Election For Someone Else

<div class="image-container full"><div class="image">AP<keyword id="1710611" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bill-de-Blasio">Bill de Blasio</keyword>, Democratic nominee for Mayor of New York City</div></div>This week, Michael Powell <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/17/nyregion/congruence-of-bloomberg-and-de-blasio.html">wrote</a> for the New York times that a potential Mayor Bill de Blasio might not be such a departure from Mayor Mike Bloomberg, because Bloomberg has been a far more progressive mayor than city Democrats are giving him credit for.
That's true. But there's another reason he might not be such a departure from the center-left Bloomberg model: De Blasio is not as left-wing as either his supporters or his opponents tend to think.
When people talk about de Blasio as a new standard bearer for the progressive left, they focus on a few things: His rhetoric about New York being "a tale of two cities"; the horror that he seems to inspire in certain parts of the city's business establishment; his call for a tax increase on city residents making over $500,000; and his strong opposition to the NYPD's heavy use of "stop &amp; frisk."
All except the last of these are bad benchmarks.
Rhetoric is just rhetoric. And de Blasio's tax proposal is both small and unlikely to become law. He would raise income taxes by 0.55 percentage points on high earners, generating enough revenue to increase the city's budget by $530 million a year, out of a total of $70 billion. The state legislature will likely shoot down the proposal anyway.
De Blasio's tax plan is far more important as a talking point, and a demonstration that he stands for the people against the powerful, than it is as fiscal policy.
If we want to figure out how left-wing a mayor de Blasio would be, we should focus on the four really important policy issues that the mayor actually has lots of control over: <keyword id="35061" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="housing">Housing</keyword> and <keyword id="6354553" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="real-estate">real estate</keyword> development, <keyword id="6355445" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Education">education</keyword>, policing, and employee compensation. The picture on these is a mixed bag.
Housing and real estate development:
De Blasio has been rhetorically critical of high-end development in New York City. In <a href="http://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/mayoral-candidates-get-candid/">an interview</a> with The Real Deal, a real estate publication, he remarked that "Towering, glitzy buildings marketed to the global elite is not the type of development New Yorkers are looking for."
He has called for the city to stop making unneeded tax giveaways to developers for luxury developments, and has said he would require the construction of more affordable housing, with a goal of adding or preserving 220,000 affordable units in the city.
This doesn't make de Blasio a left-winger.
People often think of affordable housing as an issue that pits developers against the left: Will we let them build luxury condos or will we make them build for the middle class? But de Blasio's approach to affordable housing looks designed to create a win-win: more density, more development, more affordable housing as part of that development, more developer profits, and more real estate taxes collected by the city.
In that Real Deal interview, de Blasio twice said the city should increase as-of-right development (that is, upzone) in exchange for added affordable housing. That is, in exchange for building the affordable units he wants, he will let developers build more overall.
He also supports several market-based approaches to increasing the supply of housing, such as greater use of transferrable development rights (letting landowners sell one parcel's development rights to be used elsewhere) and legalizing accessory units (letting you rent out your basement). He also wants to raise the taxes on vacant land, in order to encourage landowners to build already.
On the other hand, he says he wants the city to be allowed to impose its own rent control laws. Fortunately, Albany won't allow that.
Even though de Blasio is often painted as an opponent of the city's overclass, he's done quite well raising money from the real estate industry. As Derek Kravitz <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/currency/2013/09/bill-de-blasio-friend-of-real-estate-developers.html">wrote</a> for The New Yorker last week, he was a frequent booster of development during his time on the city council. He gave a speech in July where he focused on the need to maximize development in the city in order to create jobs. "We can't afford a process rife with delays, subject to knee-jerk NIMBYism and tangled in bureaucracy," he said.
So de Blasio looks set to be a pro-development mayor like Bloomberg. In fact, he may well be better for development than Bloomberg in two ways.
One, by tying his upzoning proposals to the issue of affordable housing, he may more easily overcome the opposition of neighbors who don't want tall buildings and construction noise. Two, if he's able to get developers to do what he wants by offering them greater density, he may not be as inclined as Bloomberg to offer sweetheart tax and subsidy deals.
On housing and real estate issues: Not left wing.
Education:
De Blasio wants the aforementioned income tax increase to pay for an expansion of the city's pre-Kindergarten program and after-school programs for middle school students. He wants to de-empahsize testing and change the way the city admits students to magnet schools. He thinks the Bloomberg Administration has been too quick to close troubled schools. And he wants <keyword id="1413866" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="charter-schools">charter schools</keyword> to start paying rent when they use public school buildings.
All those positions put him to the left of Bloomberg (and the rest of the city's pro-reform establishment) on education issues. But they didn't put him far enough to the left to get the endorsement of the United Federation of Teachers in the primary: They backed former Comptroller Bill Thompson.
On education: Pretty left wing.
Policing:
The biggest policing issue in the campaign has been stop-and-frisk. De Blasio has called for a reduction in its use, a ban on racial profiling in policing, an independent inspector general to oversee the NYPD (recently approved by the City Council over Bloomberg's veto), and a new police commissioner to replace Ray Kelly.
This is a major distinction from Bloomberg and from the Republican nominee to replace him, former Deputy Mayor Joe Lhota: they both think the NYPD is doing basically the right thing with its aggressive stop and frisk practices.
De Blasio wants the NYPD to de-emphasize marijuana enforcement. On that issue, Lhota is to his left: He's for marijuana legalization. (Sadly, the city can't legalize marijuana on its own; that would require state legislative action.)
De Blasio also stresses the need for alternatives to incarceration and initiatives to help offenders reintegrate into society when they get out of <keyword id="6362397" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Prison">prison</keyword>. This is more a continuation of the Bloomberg approach than a departure. One of Bloomberg's proudest accomplishments is that he has reduced the city's jail population by half. And the area's top proponents of prisoner re-entry programs are centrists: Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R).
On <keyword id="39494" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Crime">crime</keyword>: To the left on one important issue (stop-and-frisk) but otherwise in step with the establishment.
Employee compensation:
About 50% of New York City's municipal budget is spent on employee wages and benefits. The better a mayor controls these costs, the more money he will have for anything else he wants to do.
Mayor Bloomberg gave out fairly generous wage increases during his first two terms as mayor but has refused to sign any union contracts with raises in his third term due to the fiscal stress created by the recession. As a result, most of the city's employee unions have been out of contract for four years.
They're holding out, hoping the next mayor will give them a retroactive pay increase, but it's not clear where the money for that would come from. The city's reserve funds are depleted. Partly that's because pension and health benefit costs have continued to rise sharply even while wages have been flat.
My hunch is that de Blasio would be too inclined to make giveaways to the city's unions. But it's really just a hunch. Like most of his Democratic opponents in the primary, he's been studiously vague about employee compensation issues, including retroactive raises and whether city workers should start paying part of their <keyword id="6362363" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="health-insurance">health insurance</keyword> premiums. He says (probably correctly) that it's unwise to negotiate in public.
It's also worth noting that de Blasio did not get many public employee union endorsements in the primary. Comptroller John Liu got District Council 37, the city's largest public workers' union; Thompson got the teachers and most of the public safety unions. So, the groups most interested in finding a mayor who would give away the farm to public workers didn't think de Blasio was their best bet.
On employee compensation: maybe left-wing. We'll have to wait to find out.

Is Bill De Blasio Really That Left Wing?

<div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image">White House photo/Pete Souza</div></div>Here's a feature of <keyword id="6579869" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="ObamaCare">Obamacare</keyword> you probably don't know about: A transfer of hundreds of billions of dollars in liabilities to retired public employees from state and local governments to federal taxpayers.
Here's how it's going to work.
States and localities have enormous liabilities in the form of health benefits they have promised to provide to retired workers. (Finance professionals call these benefits OPEB, or "other post-employment benefits.") Most public sector retirees get health plans until they turn 65, and then supplemental coverage on top of Medicare after that.
In most cases, state and local governments haven't prefunded these liabilities at all. As Americans age and health care costs rise, this is becoming a major drain on state and local finances, arguably more important than more-widely-discussed problems with public employee pensions.
But Obamacare will give states and cities a major out. Instead of providing health care to under-65 retirees, they can tell them to go buy health plans in the Obamacare exchanges. In many cases, those retirees will qualify for substantial subsidies to buy such plans. States and localities will often stand to save thousands of dollars per retiree per year, even if they provide a cash stipend to help each employee buy insurance in the exchange.
All told, state and local governments should be able to shift hundreds of billions of dollars in OPEB liabilities to the federal government. That will mean a major saving for those governments. But it will also drive costs upward at the federal level.
Some governments are already planning to do this. Detroit, as part of its bankruptcy plan, wants to stop providing health care to retirees and instead give them each a <a href="http://www.freep.com/article/20130912/NEWS01/309120035/Detroit-retiree-health-care-cuts">$125 monthly stipend</a> to buy insurance in the exchange. Currently, Detroit spends $721 per month per retiree on health benefits, so this move will allow Detroit to cut its OPEB liability by 80%.
But it won't just be bankrupt cities like Detroit making the move. <a href="http://www.suntimes.com/20112162-761/city-to-phase-out-health-care-subsidy-for-30000-retirees-but-5500-oldest-will-be-covered.html">Chicago</a> and <a href="http://www.wpri.com/news/politics/state-politics/ri-could-move-city-retirees-to-obamacare">Rhode Island</a>-governments facing tight fiscal situations but not on the brink of bankruptcy-are considering similar shifts.
Unlike pensions, retiree health benefits usually are not legally guaranteed. Stressed cities and states will see kicking OPEB costs up to the federal government as a politically appealing option because of that legal flexibility.
Even in places where finances are flush, the shift will be tempting. Public employee unions that work together with state and local governments to switch to federal coverage will be playing a positive sum game: Existing benefits can be replaced with a combination of Obamacare coverage and cash that leaves retirees with more income and local governments with lower costs. Only federal taxpayers will get left holding the bag.
The numbers are big
Surprisingly, we don't know the total amount of state and local OPEB liabilities. My best back-of-the-envelope guess is that they are about $2 trillion. For comparison, total outstanding state and local bond debt is $3 trillion.
In 2012, the Pew Center on the States calculated that states <a href="http://www.pewstates.org/uploadedFiles/PCS_Assets/2012/Pew_Pensions_Update.pdf">have accrued</a> $627 billion in unfunded OPEB. But most OPEB liabilities are at the local level, since most public employees work for local governments. There's no way to determine the total amount of local liabilities without examining financial statements on a county-by-county and town-by-town basis. Federal agencies like the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis don't do that for retiree health benefits.
The Empire Center for New York State Policy did a <a href="http://www.empirecenter.org/Special-Reports/2012/09/icebergahead101310.cfm#_ednref1">fairly comprehensive review</a> in New York State last year, looking at the reported liabilities of the state's 89 largest local government employers and imputing liabilities for other, smaller governments. They estimated $177 billion in local liabilities, 2.5 times the $73 billion in liabilities accrued by the state government.
Applying a similar ratio nationally would imply just over $2 trillion in total OPEB liabilities. A 2007 research note from Credit Suisse put the figure at $1.5 trillion, but liabilities have grown significantly over the last six years.
How many of those liabilities can be shifted?
A substantial fraction. Consider the below example.
A retired public employee in <keyword id="72226" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="New-York-City">New York City</keyword>, age 60, is married to another 60-year-old, with $50,000 a year in retirement income. New York City's most common health plans would have cost about $12,500 per year for that couple in 2012, paid entirely by the city of New York. Given the current pace of medical inflation, such a plan will likely cost about $14,000 in 2014.
The default Obamacare exchange plan for that couple will be substantially cheaper: About $9,360, <a href="http://kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/early-look-at-premiums-and-participation-in-marketplaces.pdf">according to</a> the Kaiser Family Foundation. But it gets better: The federal government will provide a subsidy of $4,610 to help that retired couple buy a health plan. Instead of the $14,000, that retired couple can get health coverage at a cost of just $4,750 after federal subsidies.
Instead of directly providing a health plan, New York City could just give that couple cash to buy such a plan. Even if it adds $1,000 to cover added income taxes and $3,000 to compensate for the plan's reduced generosity, New York City will still come out ahead by about $5,000 a year, cutting the cost of insuring this retiree by more than a third.
What costs won't get shifted to the federal government?
States and cities won't be able to offload their entire OPEB liabilities, even if they move under-65 retirees into the Obamacare exchanges. Here are a few components that they'll still have to pay for:
<ul>
<li>Benefits for retirees over 65. Many state and local governments provide supplemental coverage on top of Medicare, including assistance with premiums for Medicare Parts B and D. These costs won't be greatly affected by Obamacare, though the enhancement of prescription drug benefits in Medicare Part D may reduce the cost of supplemental coverage that states and cities provide.</li>
<li>Dental, vision and life insurance benefits. While OPEB liabilities consist mostly of medical benefit promises, they include any non-pension benefits that were promised to retirees. Non-medical benefits won't be affected.</li>
<li>Retiree contributions toward health premiums. As in the New York City example above, simply telling retirees "go buy in exchanges" would mean a marked reduction in their real income in retirement, because the retiree would be on the hook for several thousand dollars a year in premium contributions. Unless they're insolvent or close to insolvent, cities will generally feel pressed to make up this gap with cash payments that will eat up much of the savings from dropping retiree health plans-but not all of them.</li>
<li>Retirees who aren't eligible for premium subsidies. If you make more than 400% of the federal poverty line (about $62,000 for a family of two) you aren't eligible for health plan premium subsidies under Obamacare. The cost of making these retirees whole might be so high that it eats up all the savings from switching to federal coverage.</li>
</ul>
What to do with the "windfall"
As some states and localities start switching retirees to federal coverage, the temptation is likely to spread. In this way, it's likely to be similar to participation in the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/you-cant-resist-the-medicaid-expansion-pennsylvania-governor-corbett-wants-in-2013-9">Medicaid expansion</a>: Holdout states will have increasing difficulty justifying why they're not taking federal dollars that their neighbors are getting.
The question for cities and states will then be what to do with all the money they're saving. In Detroit, the answer is simple: The city doesn't have any money anyway. But in solvent jurisdictions, the temptation will be find new ways to spend money that lawmakers had been expecting to spend on retiree health care.
In general, the first choice should be to cut taxes. After all, new federal health benefits for retirees won't be free. They'll be an added and unexpected cost to the federal government, which will have to collect taxes over time to pay for them.
But very often, I expect that state and local officials will find other ways to spend the money. 
Bill de Blasio, New York's Democratic nominee for mayor, wants a new pre-Kindergarten program that he estimates will cost $350 million a year. He wants to pay for it with a high-income tax increase that state lawmakers aren't likely to approve. His Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, says he also favors universal pre-K but wants to find a different funding mechanism.
Meanwhile, in the next mayor's first year in office, New York City will spend $2.3 billion on health benefits for retirees. Cutting a deal with unions to shift many of those costs up to the federal government would produce enough savings to pay for universal pre-K, and then some. Watch for the next mayor to do so, whoever it is.

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