<img class="gwt-Image" src="/photo/47958113.cms" /> 
Experts are of the view that domestic factors such as monsoon, quarterly earnings, and upcoming Parliament session will be more crucial for Indian markets rather than the Greece economic crisis.
 

	However, the Indian markets plunged today while the rupee depreciated after Greece voted 'no' to harsh bailout conditions proposed by its creditors, raising risk of a full-blown crisis in financial markets, reported the Economic Times.
 The benchmark indices slightly managed to recover losses. The <keyword id="30287" type="CITY" weightage="80" keywordseo="SP">S&amp;P</keyword> <keyword id="53232" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="BSE-sensex">BSE Sensex</keyword> lost more than 300 points in early trade, slipping below its crucial psychological level of 28,000, while the <keyword id="6354813" type="COMPANY" weightage="80" keywordseo="nifty">Nifty</keyword> has broken below 8,400 in trade. "We are now in an uncharted territory. The reactions of the <keyword id="107691" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Greek-government">Greek government</keyword>, the Euro Group, and the ECB are going to be crucial to how the crisis unfolds and are unknown at this stage," the financial daily quoted <keyword id="6358584" type="CITY" weightage="80" keywordseo="HSBC">HSBC</keyword>’s report. But, experts are of different opinions. <keyword id="44660" type="CITY" weightage="80" keywordseo="JPMorgan">JPMorgan</keyword> head-emerging Asia Economics, <keyword id="213063" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Jahangir-Aziz">Jahangir Aziz</keyword>, said: "Greece is not really going to be a pivotal event. The pivotal event is going to be domestic forces and in particular what happens in the monsoon session of Parliament." 

	He added: "The Greek event by itself probably adds a little bit more volatility to that path, but nothing more than that, and again I am sounding like a broken record over the years, but it is going to be what happens in the monsoon session of parliament."
 

	ET has listed some factors why Indian investors should not be worried about the current crisis:

	 
	· Fall in crude oil prices &amp; dollar strength 
	 Nilesh Shah of Kotak <keyword id="6358378" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="AMC">AMC</keyword> is of the view that one indirect advantage of the Greece crisis is fall in crude oil prices, and second, as the dollar has strengthened, the possibility of US delaying its <keyword id="37018" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="interest-rate">interest rate</keyword> hike is increasing. Both these things are good for India. 
	Moreover, oil prices fell sharply after Greece rejected austerity measures demanded in return for bailout money, while China rolled out an unprecedented series of steps to prevent a full-blown stock market crash. 
	 · No impact on the <keyword id="6356076" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="indian-economy">Indian economy</keyword> 
	 <keyword id="67545" type="PERSON" weightage="80" keywordseo="Andrew-Holland">Andrew Holland</keyword> - CEO, Ambit Investment Advisors, said: "India from the economic view point of view should not have any impact at all from Greece. If the monsoon is ok, oil prices lower, we could see another 25-50 bps cut in interest rates very quickly." Pankaj Sharma, executive director and head of equities at Equirus Securities, is of the opinion that the importance of what Greece decided is much less today against the repercussions which were possible some 3-4 years back. Not just the contribution of Greece has shrunk in the <keyword id="6355110" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="European-Union">European Union</keyword>, the institutional impact. 
	 
	· Value buying 
	 
	Most analysts are of the view that the current fall is more of a knee-jerk reaction, but Indian markets should be able to bounce back, and investors should use dips to accumulate quality stocks. 
	 
	"People are ready with the buying side, once it gets cleared with a positive news flow for equity markets and the global markets as well," says Yogesh Mehta, VP, Group Leader - PCG Advisory - Equities, Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd in an interview with ET Now. 
	 
	(Image: Reuters)

Greece crisis good for Indian markets, know how

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US dollar is losing some influence in the oil markets, according to JPMorgan.</li><li>The correlation between the USD's strength and oil prices has weakened, per the bank's research.</li></ul>Amid a broad discourse about the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dedollarization-china-india-russia-leaders-brics-summit-yuan-rupee-2023-8">waning influence of the US dollar</a>, analysts at one bank see one commodity market starting to shy away from the currency. While analyzing the dollar's correlation to international crude prices, <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/currencies/de-dollarization">analysts at JPMorgan warned</a> in a Thursday report that the <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/currencies/de-dollarization" target="_blank" rel="noopener">greenback's importance</a> could soon diminish."The US dollar, one of the key drivers of global oil prices, appears to be losing its once powerful influence," Natasha Kaneva, the head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, wrote in the report.The analyst drew the conclusion by looking at the impact of a strengthening dollar on oil prices.The relationship exists because the dollar is traditionally inversely correlated to oil prices — meaning that when the greenback's value rises, oil prices fall, and vice versa. The correlation exists because the international oil trade is typically denominated in the greenback, so demand for the commodity falls when the value of the dollar gains.Between 2005 and 2013, a 1% rise in the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trade-weighted-broad-dollar-index-2015-8">US trade-weighted dollar</a> — which measures the value of the greenback relative to a basket of other foreign currencies — would cut the price of international benchmark Brent crude oil by about 3%, according to data from JPMorgan. However, Brent crude oil prices fell just 0.2%, with a 1% rise in the US trade-weighted dollar between 2014 and 2022 — pointing to the greenback's waning influence in the commodity's trade. This trend is because more oil is now being transacted in non-dollar currencies, JPMorgan said in its report, such as the Chinese yuan.Indeed, major energy buyer <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollariztion-china-yuan-russia-oil-imports-sanctions-2023-5">China has been using the yuan</a> for almost all the Russian oil it bought over the past year, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/vast-china-russia-resources-trade-shifts-yuan-dollars-ukraine-fallout-2023-05-11/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Reuters</a> reported in May, citing multiple trading executives with direct knowledge of the matter.Russian oil — now subject to international trade restrictions — is also being sold in the local <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-western-sanctions-india-russian-oil-ruble-uae-dirham-2023-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">currencies of the buyers or in the currencies of countries that Russia perceives as "friendly,"</a> Kaneva added in the report. "Overall, we find that the importance of the dollar has declined significantly from 2014 to 2022," Jahangir Aziz, the bank's head of emerging market economics research, said in the report.He said it's "hard to ignore" the shift, even if it is due to the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/de-dollarization-reasons-why-countries-move-away-us-dollar-2023-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dollar's strength</a> post-pandemic and geopolitical tensions — such as the Western-led sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine that are making other countries wary of potential consequences of crossing Washington.To be sure, the US dollar is still maintaining its dominance with its share of general usage via the SWIFT payment system at over 40% — much higher than the euro at around 25% and the yuan at around 3% in <a href="https://www.swift.com/swift-resource/252087/download" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">July 2023.</a>And while JPMorgan now expects "marginal de-dollarization," to take place, the pace is not expected to be rapid. This is because the dollar is just too widely used in a vast global financial ecosystem."Instead, partial de-dollarization — in which the renminbi assumes some of the current functions of the dollar among non-aligned countries and China's trading partners — is more plausible, especially against a backdrop of strategic competition," the bank's analysts added, referring to the Chinese currency by its official name.It's not the first time the banking giant called the trend of de-dollarization.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dedollarization-dollar-dominance-foreign-currency-reserves-chinese-yuan-gold-jpmorgan-2023-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In June,</a> the bank's analysts said that "some signs of de-dollarization are emerging," as the dollar's share in foreign reserves fell to a record low. JPMorgan noted in its Thursday report that the dollar's share in foreign reserves volume has fallen to a record low of 58% in 2022 from 73% in 2001.JPMorgan did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider sent outside regular business hours.

The greenback is 'losing some influence' in the oil markets — and it means a partial de-dollarization is likely, says JPMorgan

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The supply chain crisis is one of 2021's biggest stories, but it can be traced back to the last decade.</li><li>The US-China "<keyword id="12277786" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="trade-war" source="Orion">trade war</keyword>" of the Trump years included <keyword id="12002670" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="semiconductor-chips" source="Orion">semiconductor chips</keyword> - the exact shortage crippling the world's <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword>.</li></ul>The holidays are coming, and that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-expensive-goods-supply-shortage-congested-shipping-ports-texas-freeze-2021-3">supply-chain crisis</a> you may have heard about is going to make shopping miserable.Hundreds of thousands of ships full of imported goods from Asia are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shipping-containers-stuck-california-ports-combat-shortages-2021-9">piled up outside of Los Angeles</a> and other major ports. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-there-chip-shortage-car-companies-electronics-supply-chain-2021-2">American automakers don't have enough semiconductor chips</a> to make as many cars as people want to buy. Every other product - from toys to computers - that needs a chip will be in short supply, too.What's often overlooked is that official US government policy is oriented around making these exact chips harder for <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword> to manufacture. US President <keyword id="99719" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="Orion">Joe Biden</keyword> is continuing a "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-will-make-these-products-more-expensive-2018-6">trade war</a>" with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, that began under <keyword id="11914386" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="donald-trump" source="Orion">Donald Trump</keyword>, and he's not blinking as the supply-chain crisis endangers Christmas.The ships-and-chips crisis is another way America and China are on the verge of "decoupling,"as the Trump-era trade war hardens into a new status quo. People hoping for an easier holiday shopping season are overlooking how long and painful this transition could be. <h2>The US-China trade war has left the US short on electronics and cars</h2>The US <a href="https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Government-Incentives-and-US-Competitiveness-in-Semiconductor-Manufacturing-Sep-2020.pdf">accounts for just 12%</a> of global chip production, and Asia accounts for a whopping 75%. according to a<a href="https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Government-Incentives-and-US-Competitiveness-in-Semiconductor-Manufacturing-Sep-2020.pdf"> report</a> from the Semiconductor Industry Association, which projects China becoming the largest chip producer by 2030.But Donald Trump ran on a largely anti-globalization platform in 2016, with a particular focus on how America is getting "ripped off" by China. Chips were an area of leverage.China isn't just an exporter of chips, it also needs a steady supply of particularly sophisticated integrated circuits from other countries, including the US, to fuel its consumer electronics manufacturing machine. In the past decade, China has been importing more and more chips from the US, because it needs to insert them into electronic products that get shipped back around the world.<iframe title="US semiconductor exports to China" id="datawrapper-chart-Pq8kj" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Pq8kj/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% ; border: none;" height="450"></iframe>China is generations behind in making the most cutting-edge chips. For instance, the world's largest semiconductor firm, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), is developing ultra-small chips of 3-nanometers and smaller. China's largest chip firm, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), just began making 14-nm chips in late 2019.The US is determined to make China's manufacturing efforts difficult.Last September, the Trump White House <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-chipmaker-smic-us-sanctions-2020-9">imposed export restrictions</a> on SMIC, forcing it to source parts elsewhere and reconfiguring supply chains in the process.Meanwhile, companies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tech-chips-focus/trumps-china-tech-war-backfires-on-automakers-as-chips-run-short-idUSKBN29K0GA">buying their chips from SMIC</a> had to go elsewhere, only to find that alternative chipmakers were <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tsmc-to-spend-up-to-record-28-billion-in-advanced-chips-capacity-11610623587">already at full capacity</a>. America struggled to rely on its own production, as lead US semiconductor giant Intel struggled with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-delay-chip-production-stock-plunges-2020-7">its own production problems</a>. And some firms have been hoarding chips, <a href="https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4306366">claims TSMC's CEO Mark Lui</a>, making the chip crunch even worse. The Biden administration has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reviews/out?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fu-s-enlists-allies-to-counter-chinas-technology-push-11614524400">enlisting its allies</a> to freeze China out from the technological equipment it needs, making sourcing even harder for the country.This all happened after the pandemic shut down semiconductor manufacturing operations for months in 2020, leading to spikes in the prices of new and used cars and shortages of all kinds of electronics.<iframe title="Price inflation for new and used cars" id="datawrapper-chart-mDKj6" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/mDKj6/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% ; border: none;" height="450"></iframe><h2>Biden isn't changing course</h2>Those hoping for the Biden administration to reject Trump's playbook have been sorely disappointed. The president has done little to alter his predecessor's aggressive trade stance since taking office eight months ago. Katherine Tai, the US trade representative, confirmed the tough policy would continue in a Monday speech."For too long, China's lack of adherence to global trading norms has undercut the prosperity of Americans and others around the world," she said in a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding it's "increasingly clear" that China hasn't addressed the US's concerns.Biden said earlier this year the key to navigating the current chip shortage crisis is to invest in the country's chip production, allotting $50 billion in his infrastructure plan for domestic chip manufacturing incentives. "The plan I propose will protect our supply chain and revitalize American manufacturing," he said in April, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/biden-auto-executives-chip-makers-meet-bid-solve-crippling-shortages-n1263847">during a virtual summit</a> with auto executives and other business leaders. Of course, Biden was talking about "our supply chain" - meaning an American one - and not the globalized "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what039s-next-for-chimerica--2013-7">Chimerica</a>" supply chain of the early 2000s.The Biden administration recently made countering China the centerpiece of its foreign policy agenda, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-cia-director-creates-new-unit-focus-key-rival-china-2021-10?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider%2Fthelife+%28The+Life%29+Life%29">even reorganizing the CIA</a> to make China a principal focus. The CIA described the country as a "key rival."The transition to homegrown chip production will be more easily said than done. American manufacturers aren't used to expensive American labor, so they'll need time to wean off foreign contract manufacturers, <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22336388/gm-chip-shortage-ford-semiconductors-biden">Recode</a> noted. Meanwhile, it can take years to get new production facilities off the ground.Americans, then, are set to endure a lengthy standoff. A JPMorgan note on Friday by a team led by Jahangir Aziz stated that US-China trade tensions are set to remain a "palpable risk," as China is in the midst of an "economic-policy regime shift" and "intensified US-China tension since 2018 has entered a relative freeze."Speaking on Friday after a disappointing jobs report underscored the difficulties facing the economic recovery, Biden advocated again for his infrastructure plan, which is struggling to make its way through Congress.He stressed the need for America to regain leadership and become more "competitive," and he highlighted one country outcompeting and outspending America on its infrastructure and economy: <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/10/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-september-jobs-report/">that country was China</a>. That could mean a lot more lean Christmases.

The supply-chain disaster that is eating Christmas is being driven by a Biden-Xi conflict that many are overlooking

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:401px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/512f86fcecad047642000000-590-443/indian-flag-3.jpg?maxX=401&amp;maxY=301" border="0" alt="indian flag" width="401" height="301" /></div><a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/young-performer-waves-his-countrys-national-flag-as-he-news-photo/55591380#">prpix.com.au via Getty Images</a></div>The Bombay Stock Exchange fell 1.5 percent and the Indian rupee weakened against the dollar, as investors were disappointed by the details of <a href="http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2013/feb/benglish.pdf">India's new budget for FY13-14. </a>
In its efforts to stimulate growth, the government has been trying to attract foreign investors and strengthen its capital markets.
However, the measures included in the plan were widely regarded as falling far short of accomplishing these goals, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/india-tax-idUSL4N0BS4K920130228?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&amp;utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter">according to Reuters.</a> Here are some of the measures rolled out in the FY13-14 <keyword id="6358021" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="budget">budget</keyword>.
<ol>
<li>"Uniform registration and other norms by converging the different KYC [Know Your Client] norms".</li>
<li> Make it move closer to international practices. Investors with a stake of less that 10 percent will be treated at foreign institutional investors (FII) and those with an over 10 percent stake will be considered foreign direct investors (FDI).</li>
<li>"The FIIs will also be permitted to participate in exchange traded Currency Derivatives segments to the extent of their <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>n rupee exposure in India."</li>
<li>FIIs will also be allowed to use their investments in corporate bonds and government securities as "collateral to meet their margin requirements."</li>
<li>"Final Withholding Tax at the rate of 20 per cent on profits distributed by unlisted companies to shareholders through buy-back of share".</li>
<li>A surcharge of 5 percent on foreign companies with taxable income of over Rs. 100 million (approx $1.8 million) for one year. This is up from two percent surcharge. For domestic companies the surcharge was raised to 10 percent, from 5 percent.</li>
<li>A proposal for a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/india-tax-idUSL4N0BS4K920130228?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&amp;utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter">tax residency certificate</a> that would be needed to avoid double taxation, that was part of the financial bill in the budget.</li>
</ol>
Certain tax amendments in the budget didn't clarify which investment returns would be taxed.
Moreover, the tax residency certificate amendment that is targeted at 2016 "sparked fears tax authorities would have wider discretion to go after foreign investors," <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/india-tax-idUSL4N0BS4K920130228?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&amp;utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter">according to Reuters.</a>
The importance of foreign investment
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-indias-gdp-growth-is-headed-to-a-10-year-low-2012-8">Growth as we've already reported is at a 10-year low</a>. And the Indian government thinks investment (both foreign and domestic) is "the key to restart the growth engine".
Remember, this time last year Jefferies' analysts <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jefferies-india-investment-cycle-2012-3">Nilesh Jasani and Piyush Nahar</a> had said that India's economic slowdown was being driven by a collapse in the investment cycle that is "far from being played out."
Moreover, India's current account deficit, which represents the country's balance of payments, widened to a record $28 billion the quarter ending December 12. India needs to attract foreign investments to lower this as well. This is because a wide current account deficit makes the Indian economy vulnerable to a rout in global financial markets and could hit the Indian rupee.
<div class="image-container" style="width:580px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/512f7af9eab8ea8773000014-835-549/screen shot 2013-02-28 at 10.28.50 am.jpg" border="0" alt="India current account deficit" width="580" height="381" /></div>Morgan Stanley</div>
 
Other measures
The budget, which needs to be approved by parliament, also raised taxes on the extremely wealthy as part of its plan to lower the federal deficit. It proposed a surcharge of 10 percent on those whose taxable income exceeds Rs 10 million (approve $180K) to help lower the federal deficit. But if implemented this is also in place for one year.
<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1e2a2a1c-8175-11e2-ae78-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2MCljDrTq">Jahangir Aziz, chief India economist for JP Morgan told the Financial Times</a> that the budget lacked a focused plan to revive growth:
"It’s like a shotgun that fires pellets across the board. There is no target you are actually choosing. There is no concerted vision where he wants growth to come from, or where he wants to take this economy, not today, not tomorrow, but the day after tomorrow."

You Searched For "Jahangir Aziz" and got 4 results

Greece crisis good for Indian markets, know how

BI India Bureau

The greenback is 'losing some influence' in the oil markets — and it means a partial de-dollarization is likely, says JPMorgan

Huileng Tan

The supply-chain disaster that is eating Christmas is being driven by a Biden-Xi conflict that many are overlooking

Hillary Hoffower,Ben Winck,An…

India's New Budget Plan Won't Bring Much-Need Economic Growth

Mamta Badkar