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<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5uAIreZht4">YouTube</a></p></div><p></p></div>The Cleveland Browns benched Brandon Weeden this week.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">It's too early to call him an all-time draft bust. </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">But if he never starts again, he'll join guys like <keyword id="1738557" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="JaMarcus-Russell">JaMarcus Russell</keyword> and Ryan Leaf on that dubious list.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">We took a look at what some of these infamous draft busts are up to today.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Some guys have fallen on hard times, as you'd expect. But other are actually thriving in second careers.</span></p>

WHERE ARE THEY NOW? The Biggest NFL Draft Busts Ever

<p><div class="image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><a href="https://twitter.com/TEST_Football">twitter.com</a> and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5uAIreZht4">www.youtube.com</a></p></div></div></div>Ex-NFL quarterback <keyword id="1738557" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="JaMarcus-Russell">JaMarcus Russell</keyword> <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jamarcus-russell-could-come-back-to-nfl-2013-5">is attempting to make a comeback for the 2013 season</a>.</p>
<p>He has met with a handful of <keyword id="103436" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="NFL">NFL</keyword> teams already, and he's working with an athlete training company called Test Football Academy to get back in shape.</p>
<p>Russell ballooned to 300+ pounds during the end of his tenure with the Raiders. But<span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> he looks borderline skinny.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="http://bustedcoverage.com/2013/06/20/skinny-jamarcus-russell/">Busted Coverage found this photo</a> of Russell from last week:</span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p>Current photo of Jamarcus Russell attached...down 51 pounds... Great job <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Hard&amp;src=hash">#Hard</a> Work <a href="http://t.co/KjK3ZWM1Qp">pic.twitter.com/KjK3ZWM1Qp</a></p>
— TEST FootballAcademy (@TEST_Football) <a href="https://twitter.com/TEST_Football/statuses/345957144564219904">June 15, 2013</a></blockquote>

<p>Russell is insanely talented. He was picked 1st overall in 2007, but his weight and lack of dedication basically got him kicked out of the league.</p>
<p>Here's what he looked like in February. Good job by him:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:800px"><div class="image"><p class="source"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5uAIreZht4">YouTube</a></p></div></div></p>

Here's What NFL Draft Bust JaMarcus Russell Looks Like After Losing 51 Pounds

<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><p class="source">Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images</p></div><keyword id="1738557" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="JaMarcus-Russell">JaMarcus Russell</keyword> was picked first in the 2007 NFL draft to play quarterback for the <keyword id="909848" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Oakland-Raiders">Oakland Raiders</keyword>. Despite being picked first overall, Russell was a bust and hasn't taken a snap since 2009.</p>
<p>But now, according to Yahoo! Sports, <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/nfl-draft-bust-jamarcus-russell-attempting-nfl-comeback-043914730--nfl.html">Russell is trying to make a comeback</a>.</p>
<p>One of his biggest challenges is getting his weight down. Right now, <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/nfl-draft-bust-jamarcus-russell-attempting-nfl-comeback-043914730--nfl.html">Russell weighs 308 lbs, 43 pounds heavier than his already hefty 265 pound frame</a> when he was drafted in 2007. Russell told Yahoo he has been focusing on cardio training and has already lost 12 pounds in the past six weeks.</p>
<p>So why is Russell deciding to come back to football now? He told Yahoo! Sports:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">“My first year out, I couldn’t watch football but after a while, I couldn’t keep the TV off. I got that itchy feeling but now I gotta watch it, gotta watch. The last few years, the things going through my life, football is my job and it is how it feeds my family. People would say [that] I didn’t love the game but that pisses me off. People don’t know the real you but I want people to know the real me and see what I can do. People are always saying that I’m a bust. I want show them I’m not. I’m committed to this now.”</p>
<p>This isn't the first time Russell tried to get back into football after getting cut by the Raiders. Shorty after being cut, <a href="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/02/jamarcus-weighs-286-jp-losman-also-meets-with-redskins/">Russell showed up to a workout with the Redskins already weighing 286 pounds</a>.</p>

One Of The Biggest NFL Draft Busts In History Is Trying To Make A Comeback

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="9211245" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="breonna-taylor">Breonna Taylor</keyword>'s family have updated their legal complaint against <keyword id="193447" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Louisville">Louisville</keyword> police officers, according to local reports.</li><li>The family claims the warrant on Taylor's apartment was issued in the interests of speeding along a city redevelopment project, <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/crime/2020/07/05/lawyers-breonna-taylor-case-connected-gentrification-plan/5381352002/">the Louisviller Courier Journal reported</a>.</li><li>The warrant was one of five targeting Taylor's ex-boyfriend Jamarcus Glover, who her family said was living in an area slated for a major redevelopment project, the paper reported. </li><li>The family say that police misled narcotics officers to believe that Glover's address was a drugs and violent hotspot, the paper reported.</li><li>The mayor's office strongly refuted the claims, which do not constitute evidence. Business Insider has contacted Louisville Metro Police and the mayor for comment.</li></ul><p>Breonna Taylor's family has alleged at that the warrant on her apartment — during the execution of which she was fatally shot by police — was filed as part of a gentrification effort, according to local reports. </p><p>Taylor's family amended their legal complaint at Jefferson Circuit Court, Louisville, with the allegation that a police unit had "deliberately misled" narcotics officers to believe their warrants were focused around dealing with a major drugs hotspot, <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/crime/2020/07/05/lawyers-breonna-taylor-case-connected-gentrification-plan/5381352002/">according to a filing seen by the Louisville Courier Journal</a>. </p><p>The complaint claims that a block on Elliott Avenue in western Louisville, where Taylor's ex-boyfriend Jamarcus Glover was living, sits in the center of the Vision Russell initiative, a redevelopment plan led by the mayor's office, the paper reported.</p><p>Glover's apartment, the family's filing reportedly said, presented one of several "primary roadblocks" to the Vision Russell project. </p><p>The filing claims that the five warrants issued on March 12, including on Taylor's apartment, were all part of efforts targeting Glover and others in his building to clear the way for the redevelopment, <a href="https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/news/reports-lawsuit-claims-breonna-taylor-search-warrant-tied-to-development-project/article_7434b7f6-bf2f-11ea-867c-ab9d01afd201.html">according to local channel WSPD Local</a>.</p><p>The allegations do not constitute evidence.</p><p>Jean Porter, spokesperson for Interim Mayor Greg Fischer, strongly denied the claims, telling the Courier Journal in a statement that they were "without foundation or supporting facts."</p><p>"They are insulting to the neighborhood members of the Vision Russell initiative and all the people involved in the years of work being done to revitalize the neighborhoods of west Louisville," the statement continued. </p><p><a href="https://visionrussell.org/about/russellneighborhood/">The Vision Russell initiative</a> is a project to "revitalize" the neighborhoods of West Louisville, Porter's statement said.</p><p>Mary Ellen Wiederwohl, head of the city's economic development foundation Louisville Forward, the city's economic development organization, <a href="https://www.wave3.com/2020/07/05/breonna-taylor-lawsuit-is-amended-placing-blame-mayor-new-development-project/">told local news channel Wave 3</a> that the updated lawsuit "is a gross mischaracterization of the project," and said that the foundation had worked with community organizations throughout. </p><p>She added that the foundation is discussing the creation of a community land trust "to ensure investment without displacement."</p><p><div type="image" title="breonna taylor protests Louisville" height="1000" width="2000" msid="76815019" hostid="261"></div></p><p>Breonna Taylor's death <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/george-floyd-protest-washington-dc-photos-2020-6">has been a focus</a> of the Black Lives Matter and anti-police brutality protests that sprang up after the police killing of George Floyd on May 25. </p><p>The 26-year-old emergency medical technician <a href="https://www.insider.com/breonna-taylor-shot-dead-louisville-house-police-narcotics-bust-2020-5">was shot 8 times</a> when narcotics police executed a warrant on her home in the early hours of March 13.</p><p>Detective Joshua Jaynes had sought a no-knock warrant for Taylor's home after seeing Glover leaving there with packages and heading directly to a "known drug house," the Louisville Courier Journal reported. A postal official has since denied that Jaynes's office had verified this with the postal service, <a href="https://www.wdrb.com/in-depth/louisville-postal-inspector-no-packages-of-interest-at-slain-emt-breonna-taylor-s-home/article_f25bbc06-96e4-11ea-9371-97b341bd2866.html">WDRB News reported</a>.</p><p>Jaynes has since been reassigned, <a href="https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/local/2020/06/10/breonna-taylor-louisville-detective-joshua-jaynes-no-knock-warrant-reassigned/5333604002/">according to the Louisville Courier Journal</a>. </p><p>According to her family's <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/460923699/Breonna-Taylor-preliminary-statement#from_embed?campaign=SkimbitLtd&amp;ad_group=35871X1550380Xd8bbb0244e2f3ec5bc44d327aecae558&amp;keyword=660149026&amp;source=hp_affiliate&amp;medium=affiliatemedium=affiliate">preliminary statement</a> to Jefferson Circuit Court on April 27, neither Taylor nor Walker had any criminal history of drugs or violence and were described by neighbors as "quiet and peaceful."</p><p>Business Insider has contacted Mayor Greg Fischer's office and Louisville Metro Police for comment, but did not immediately receive a reply.</p>

The police warrant on Breonna Taylor's apartment was part of a gentrification drive, her family says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Every year at the <keyword id="11897660" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="nfl" source="Orion">NFL</keyword> Draft, <keyword id="12426849" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="roger-goodell" source="Orion">Roger Goodell</keyword> gets booed.</li><li>The boos are universally loud and raucous, but they stem from fans for different reasons.</li></ul><p>LAS VEGAS — As NFL commissioner Roger Goodell stepped out on stage to open the 2022 NFL Draft in Las Vegas, he was immediately met with a familiar sound.</p><p><em>"Booooooooooooooooooooo,</em>" the crowd of NFL fans, tens of thousands strong, roared at the man in charge of the sport they love.</p><p>After years of practice, Goodell knew to expect them. NFL fans have been booing Goodell at the NFL Draft for some time.</p><p>But after asking fans around the NFL Draft why they specifically booed the commissioner, the responses I got were varied and vague.</p><p>"Cause he's Roger Goodell," said Alan, a San Francisco 49ers fan, on Day 1 of the Draft. "It's as simple as that."</p><p>"I mean come on. You gotta boo that motherfucker," said John Kress, decked out in Lions gear. Why? I asked.</p><p>"Because he's an asshole!"</p><div type="image" title="Lions fan John Kress takes in the 2022 NFL Draft in Las Vegas." height="2100" width="2800" msid="91325462" hostid="261"></div><p>It hasn't always been this way.</p><p>Paul Tagliabue, who served as NFL Commissioner before Goodell's tenure began in 2006, received cheers as he walked to the podium to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFAzg94RtLU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">begin the 1998 NFL Draft</a>.</p><p>And even Goodell, for a stretch of his commissionership, saw him largely supported at the start of the draft. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqzNmZCeU7Q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">At the 2007 NFL Draft</a>, Goodell received a smattering of light applause as he opened the ceremony, and he was not booed down into oblivion when he came out to announce that the Oakland Raiders had selected quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick.</p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u12PXum6Y9s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In 2012</a>, Goodell received both jeers and cheers from the fans gathered at Radio City Music Hall in New York City.</p><p>Still, somewhere along the way, fan sentiment seemed to turn for the worse.</p><p>It's possible the biggest shift came when the NFL decided to take the draft on the road for the first time in the modern era. From 1964 until 2014, New York City was home to the draft, with Radio City playing host starting in 2006.</p><p>From year-to-year in New York, Goodell might receive a smattering of boos depending on the state of the league, potential looming lockouts, or player punishments that had been handed down from the league office, but largely, Goodell was not booed out of the room as he is today.</p><p>In 2015, the NFL <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYE442vnCZo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">moved the draft to the Auditorium Theatre in Chicago</a>. In front of a new crowd that had not had the luxury of getting annual facetime with the commissioner every year, the boos came through clearly.</p><p>Two years later, with the draft in Philadelphia and now officially a touring circus, free from the confines of New York City, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2MshwN0nmI&amp;feature=emb_err_woyt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the boos for Goodell grew louder</a>.</p><p>It makes sense that as the draft began to move, the boos for Goodell grew louder. Given how few appearances the commissioner makes in front of the football public, the touring draft gave a new city the opportunity to get in their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Minutes_Hate" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Two Minutes Hate</a> on Goodell each year.</p><p>For his part, Goodell has leaned into the boos more and more with each passing year. During the remote draft of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, league partner Bud Light put together a campaign aimed at ensuring fans were still able to boo Goodell from the comforts of quarantine.</p><p>In Las Vegas, it was much of the same. When Goodell returned on night two of the draft, he egged fans on to boo him louder.</p><p>"Now he actually wants us to do it," Isaac Adams, a Steelers fan, told me as we waited for our flight to Las Vegas in Terminal 4 of JFK. "It's still fun to do it, but it's kind of lost its coolness, because now he's in on it."</p><p>But even with Goodell in on the joke, Adams still said he would do his duty as a fan.</p><p>"I will boo again this year," he said. "I will continue that tradition of booing him live."</p><p>For Raiders fans in attendance, the booing of Goodell was a bit more personal. Given the history between the NFL and the Raiders, specifically late-owner Al Davis' lawsuit against the NFL, Raiders fans felt they were doing their duty in booing the personification of the league in Goodell. </p><p>"We always boo Roger Goodell," said Steve Sanchez, better known as El Calaca amongst Raider Nation. "Because we are against the NFL."</p><div type="image" title="Raiders fan &quot;El Calaca&quot; takes in the 2022 NFL Draft in Las Vegas." height="1806" width="2408" msid="91325463" hostid="261"></div><p>"He's always against us," said Marcos, carrying a Raider flag through the first night of the draft. "That's why we boo him. As a Raider fan, Al Davis sued the NFL, and now we only get bad calls. I boo him for Al."</p><p>But while their justification made sense for the silver-and-black, it still failed to offer a unifying theory on just why Goodell gets so much grief from NFL fans.</p><p>The best explanation I heard all weekend came from Steelers fan Derek Hunter.</p><p>"I mean, that's tradition. I'm a big hockey fan, and you've gotta boo [Gary] Bettman. And stemming from that, you've gotta boo the commissioner."</p><p>Indeed, no man in <keyword id="11893855" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="sports" source="Orion">sports</keyword> is booed quite like the NHL commissioner.</p><p>It's possible the boos aimed at Goodell go beyond a disdain for just the man himself, but rather are a general show of displeasure with authority at large.</p><p>In sports, you boo the commissioner, and in this case, that commissioner is Goodell. While fans of specific teams have plenty of personal grudges against the NFL, as exemplified by Raider Nation, the royal "we" of football fandom boo because we boo.</p><p>After asking fan after fan present in Las Vegas why they would be booing Goodell, I began to wonder if I was asking the wrong question. "Why do NFL fans boo Roger Goodell?" might just be up there with the sound a tree makes when no one is around to hear it, or whether God could make a rock so heavy not even he could lift it.</p><p>If you have to ask, you'll never know.</p><p>Just as I was getting dismayed in my quest for answers, Steelers fans Dawn King and Kim Watkins made their conclusion as clear as could be.</p><p>Why would they boo Roger Goodell? I asked.</p><p>"Because it's tradition," Dawn said.</p><p>"And he's a butt," concluded Kim.</p>

Why do NFL fans boo Roger Goodell? An investigation

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div>Ending up on this list is the worst case scenario for any player who enters the NFL Draft.</p><p>No one wants to be the next Ryan Leaf.</p><p>But while a few of the biggest NFL Draft busts ever have fallen on hard times, many are actually thriving in second careers.</p>

WHERE ARE THEY NOW? The biggest NFL Draft busts ever

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5uAIreZht4">YouTube</a></span></p></div><p></p></div>Ending up on this list is the worst case scenario for the 32 players who will be taken in the first round of next week's NFL Draft.</p>
<p>No one wants to be the next JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf.</p>
<p>But while a few of the biggest NFL Draft busts ever have fallen on hard times, others are actually thriving in second careers.</p>

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Joe Amon/The Denver Post via Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">Former Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>A <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/04/the-nfl-draft-is-still-a-crapshoot/256464/">consensus</a> is <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2016/story/_/id/15159462/successful-drafting-all-volume-nfl">emerging</a> among some analysts that the NFL draft is mostly a crapshoot and that whether a given player becomes successful is a result of factors that cannot be observed before the draft.</strong></li><li><strong>But some NFL teams appear to be making an obvious mistake by taking quarterbacks who have good physical traits - like size, speed, and arm strength - but who struggle in college with mental and mechanical skills - like accuracy, reading defenses, and making sound decisions about where to throw the football.</strong></li><li><strong>The tendency stems from inflexible thought patterns and the inherent difficulties in evaluating quarterbacks, according to economists, football analysts, former NFL scouts, and former NFL general managers who spoke with Business Insider.</strong></li><li><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit BusinessInsider.com for more stories</a>.</strong></li></ul><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Quarterback is the most important position in a modern NFL dominated by passing, but teams struggle to draft the right one. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Of the 64 quarterbacks selected in the first or second rounds of the NFL draft between 2000 (the year Tom Brady, today's longest-tenured quarterback, was drafted) and 2016, 28 rank among the top-32 quarterbacks in <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index37a8.html">approximate value</a> (AV) - a statistic created by the website Pro Football Reference to measure a player's impact on his team - since their rookie years. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The NFL has 32 teams, so a quarterback who ranks among the top 32 in AV during his career will provide enough value to make him worthy of being the starter for at least one team. That could be considered the minimum level of performance required for a highly-drafted quarterback to avoid becoming a bust.</span></p><p><em><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-quarterback-class-prospects-2019-3">The top 14 quarterbacks in the 2019 NFL draft class</a></span></em></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/04/the-nfl-draft-is-still-a-crapshoot/256464/">consensus</a> is <a href="http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2016/story/_/id/15159462/successful-drafting-all-volume-nfl">emerging</a> among some analysts that the draft is mostly a crapshoot and that whether a given player becomes successful is a result of factors that cannot be observed before the draft. But some NFL teams appear to be making an obvious mistake by taking quarterbacks who have good physical traits - like size, speed, and arm strength - but who struggle in college with mental and mechanical skills - like accuracy, reading defenses, and making sound decisions about where to throw the football.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This tendency is apparent when comparing pre-draft scouting reports with NFL performance for three groups of quarterbacks: </span></p><ul><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Those who were drafted in the first or second rounds and rank among the top-16 in AV since their rookie years</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Those who were not drafted in the first two rounds but rank among the top-32 in AV since their rookie years</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Those who were drafted in the first or second rounds but rank outside the top-32 in AV since their rookie years</span></li></ul><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I designated quarterbacks in the first two categories as successful, and those in the third category as unsuccessful since quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds are generally expected to become starters, while teams often view those selected after the second round or in free agency as likely backups with the potential to develop into starters. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Among quarterbacks drafted between 2000-2016 who fell into one of the three categories above, I found the following from pre-draft scouting reports written by publications like ESPN, NFL.com, CBS Sports, and Bleacher Report. (For each trait, I only included quarterbacks for whom a majority of media scouting reports made a decisive, positive or negative evaluation.)</span></p><ul><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">83% of successful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their accuracy in college, while 55% of unsuccessful quarterbacks received negative evaluations for their accuracy in college.</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">50% of successful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their decision-making abilities, while 67% of unsuccessful quarterbacks received negative evaluations for their decision-making abilities.</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">73% of successful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their ability to read defenses, while 63% of unsuccessful quarterbacks received negative evaluations for their ability to read defenses.</span></li></ul><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The disparities between successful and unsuccessful quarterbacks were smaller for arm strength, size, and speed:</span></p><ul><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">87% of successful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their arm strength, while 85% of unsuccessful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their arm strength.</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">63% of successful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their size, while 74% of unsuccessful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their size.</span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">91% of successful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their speed, while 80% of unsuccessful quarterbacks received favorable evaluations for their speed.</span></li></ul><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Of course, not every quarterback had detailed, pre-draft scouting reports available online. And scouting is an inexact science; sometimes, experts disagree on the seemingly simple question of whether or not a quarterback is accurate.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But these somewhat crude results show that the gap between successful and unsuccessful quarterbacks is more significant for mental and mechanical skills than for attributes based more on innate physical abilities, which suggests teams are less likely to draft a successful quarterback when they emphasize the latter at the expense of the former. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">So if physically-gifted quarterbacks who struggle in college with some combination of accuracy, decision-making, and reading defenses are less likely to be successful than quarterbacks who excel in those areas, why do teams keep drafting them? The tendency stems from inflexible thought patterns and the inherent difficulties in evaluating quarterbacks, according to economists, football analysts, former NFL scouts, and former NFL general managers who spoke with Business Insider.</span></p><h2>Misplaced priorities</h2><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Wade Payne/Associated Press</span></p><p class="caption">Former Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The decision to draft any player begins with the decision to have a scout evaluate that player in college. But the methods used for quarterbacks haven't changed much in the past thirty to forty years, even as the NFL has changed drastically, said Ted Sundquist, a former general manager for the Denver Broncos.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The templates teams use to evaluate quarterbacks have been shaped by the national scouting organizations Blesto and National Football Scouting, which have tended to emphasize height, weight, and speed, said Sundquist, a former member of National Football Scouting. The <a href="https://www.profootballweekly.com/2016/10/17/greg-gabriel-a-look-at-the-nfl-scouting-process-in-the-fall/aq6vs8w/">organizations create lists</a> of the college players they consider possible NFL prospects, and NFL teams use those lists to guide their internal scouting departments. This means the scouting philosophies of Blesto and National Football Scouting influence which players teams send their scouts to observe, Sundquist said.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sometimes, teams prioritize physical traits in quarterbacks because they're more easily measured than mental characteristics, said Russ Lande, who has worked in the scouting departments of the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams and currently serves as the director of college scouting for the Canadian Football League's Montreal Alouettes. But the mental traits are more important.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"The success and failure of quarterbacks - 90% of it is above the shoulders," Lande said. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Teams also get hung up on physical traits that are at least partly genetic, like size and strength, because they assume they can fix mental attributes and throwing mechanics to a greater extent than is possible.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"At the heart of it, coaches are teachers. And teachers inherently believe they can make their students better," Lande said. "The love of being a teacher sometimes gets you to be blind to things that are very difficult to fix."</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Throwing mechanics, in particular, are difficult to correct well before a quarterback has reached the NFL, said Steve Palazzolo, a senior analyst for Pro Football Focus, a website that evaluates professional and college football players by grading their performance on each play.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Your throwing patterns, if you've been doing it a lot, are pretty much ingrained between the ages of, like, eight and fourteen," he said.</span></p><h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Irrational behavior</span><span style="font-weight: 400;"></span></h2><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Jed Jacobsohn/GettyImages</span></p><p class="caption">Former Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">You might think the NFL - which features intense competition for a relatively small number of jobs for coaches, executives, and players - would be a hotbed of innovation and critical thinking since everyone has significant incentives to get an edge on their opponents.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But that isn't always true. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">Even more than other professional sports leagues, like the MLB and the NBA, the NFL can be resistant to new ways of thinking. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Football teams are very stuck in their ways," said Aaron Schatz, who founded the football analytics site Football Outsiders and has consulted for NFL teams.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"></span><span style="font-weight: 400;">The economist David Romer found in <a href="https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf">a 2006 paper</a> that NFL teams attempted to convert fourth downs into first downs far less often than would maximize their odds of winning. They have <a href="https://slate.com/culture/2017/11/nfl-coaches-are-making-better-fourth-down-decisions.html">increased their rate of fourth-down attempts</a> since, but the fact that by 2000, 80 years after the NFL's first season (and the most recent year included in Romer's data), teams had not come close to maximizing their offensive opportunities reveals a tendency toward tradition over a ruthless pursuit of competitive advantages.</span></p><p><em><span style="font-weight: 400;"><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nick-foles-jaguars-kyler-murray-cardinals-nfl-draft-implications-2019-3">The 2 biggest QB mysteries in the NFL appear to be solved, and there could be huge implications for the rest of the draft</a></span></em></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Teams can be similarly stubborn and misguided when evaluating quarterbacks. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rather than thinking critically about a quarterback's strengths and weaknesses, teams are sometimes so eager to believe the prospect will solve their problems that they fall prey to confirmation bias and interpret the information they've gathered on him in a way that supports their optimism, said Michael Lombardi, a former general manager for the Cleveland Browns.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Sometimes, you want the player to be better than he is," he said. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It doesn't help that some teams involve too many people in draft decisions, which encourages adherence to old ways of thinking and discourages new ideas.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Whenever you're involved in groupthink, there's a really good chance for a mistake," Lombardi said.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But general managers who make big mistakes don't get many chances to learn from them. Since the end of the 2014 season, teams have fired 15 general managers, executives, or coaches responsible for personnel decisions.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Most of the time, when you make a mistake, you get fired. And then there's a new group of people in there that didn't know about your mistake, "Lombardi said. </span></p><h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Failing to learn from mistakes</span></h2><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Paul Sancya/AP</span></p><p class="caption">Former New York Jets quarterback Christian Hackenberg.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While results from the past 20 years indicate that teams should steer clear of quarterbacks who struggle with some combination of accuracy, reading defenses, and decision-making, there aren't any measurable traits or statistics that can predict which quarterbacks are going to be successful in the NFL, according to <a href="http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/45327/1/10.pdf">a 2009 paper</a> written by the economists David Berri and Rob Simmons.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The paper found a weak correlation between a quarterback's draft position and his per-play performance in the NFL. Quarterbacks selected with one of the top-10 picks between 1970 and 2007 performed worse per play than those drafted with the 11th through 90th picks. The paper also found that some of the criteria that influenced a quarterback's draft position - like height, speed, and performance on the Wonderlic, the NFL's pre-draft intelligence test - didn't predict NFL performance. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That leaves NFL teams in a difficult position, but one they can make easier by learning from other teams' mistakes. Recent drafts suggest some have not done so.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In 2016, the New York Jets took Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg in the second round. Before the draft, Pro Football Focus said Hackenberg <a href="https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-why-pff-doesnt-have-a-draftable-grade-on-christian-hackenberg">wasn't worth drafting at all</a> in part because of his inaccuracy and poor decision-making, but Sports Illustrated reported that the Jets thought Hackenberg had a <a href="https://www.si.com/mmqb/2016/05/06/themmqb-christian-hackenberg-new-york-jets-quarterback-private-workout-nfl-draft-2016">high amount of upside</a>. Hackenberg was the <a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/happy-valentines-day-to-the-quarterback-in-your-life-2/">first quarterback in over 30 years</a> to be drafted in the first two rounds and not throw a single pass in a regular season game during his first two seasons.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">It's difficult to find successful NFL quarterbacks over the past two decades who, like Hackenberg, had great physical gifts but faced significant pre-draft concerns about their accuracy, decision-making, or ability to read defenses (Cam Newton is the rare exception). But plenty flamed out despite high draft positions, like Jake Locker, Tim Tebow, and JaMarcus Russell.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This suggests that teams can gain an edge on their competition by merely avoiding decisions that, historically, have low odds of success while letting their opponents fall prey to misplaced priorities and irrational optimism.</span></p><ul class="read-more-links"><li>Read more:</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2019-nfl-mock-draft-consensus-first-round-2019-2" data-e2e-name="read-more-link" data-read-more-link="">2019 NFL Mock Draft: What the experts are predicting for every pick of the first round</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2019-nfl-draft-order-when-networks-team-needs-2019-2" data-e2e-name="read-more-link" data-read-more-link="">2019 NFL DRAFT: What every team needs heading into the first round</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-mock-draft-todd-mcshay-kyler-murray-2019-3" data-e2e-name="read-more-link" data-read-more-link="">NFL draft experts now project Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray to be the No. 1 pick, but there is a catch</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-tall-is-kyler-murray-official-nfl-combine-draft-height-2019-2" data-e2e-name="read-more-link" data-read-more-link="">The NFL world says the biggest debate of the NFL Draft is over after learning how tall star quarterback Kyler Murray actually is</a></li></ul><p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/billionaire-wwe-vince-mcmahon-wrestling-shahid-tony-khan-aew-2019-4">This billionaire NFL owner and his son are taking on Vince McMahon and WWE</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

Evidence shows NFL teams are better off drafting quarterbacks with strong mental skills and mechanics over QBs who are just physically gifted

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Patrick Smith/Getty Images</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>The Washington Redskins lost to the New York Giants last night, 32-21. While there were problems on both sides of the ball for Washington, their biggest issue was one that 'Skins fans know all too well: starting quarterback Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions, marking the eighth time he has thrown multiple interceptions in a game.</p><p>Now, it's an obvious fact that any team with a turnover-prone quarterback is going to struggle in the NFL. But this banality is especially true when it comes to Cousins in Washington: in the 8 games in which Cousins has thrown more than one interception, the Redskins' record is a gruesome 0-8.</p><p>Let's take a look at some of his throws from last night: Here's his first interception</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>via NFL.com</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>This is a standard play-action play and Cousins forces a throw he shouldn't. Giants cornerback Prince Amukamara jumps the route nicely, but this is simply too risky a throw to make with Cousins' skill level, especially considering how deep the Redskins are pinned in their own half. </p><p>Here's the reverse angle:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>via NFL.com</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>His second interception of the game, in the third quarter, was again the result of simply forcing an unwise pass. He gets a little unlucky that the ball pops high into the air and that there are only Giants defenders nearby, but if he doesn't force this throw than he doesn't turn it over.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>via NFL.com</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>This next pass, while it didn't result in an interception, just about sums up Cousins' night: </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>via NFL.com</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>As <a href="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/09/25/kirk-cousins-continues-to-throw-interceptions-at-an-alarming-rate/">Pro Football Talk noted</a>, Cousins' rate of interceptions is historically bad. He's thrown 23 picks and 21 touchdowns in 514 passes. For some reference, Blaine Gabbert - widely considered a bust - has thrown 23 TDs and 24 interceptions at a similar rate, while JaMarcus Russell - no longer in the league - threw 23 interceptions but in 166 more total passes.</p><p>Oddly enough, the Redskins two other quarterbacks, Colt McCoy and Robert Griffin III, have also both thrown 23 interceptions in their careers. The only difference is that Cousins has reached this number with significantly fewer throws. McCoy's 23 interceptions came in 831 passes, while Griffin took 1,063 throws to reach 23 interceptions. Remember, Cousins has thrown just 514 passes. In other words, he is throwing interceptions about twice as often as Griffin. </p><p>And somehow, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden <a href="http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/09/25/jay-gruden-theres-no-quarterback-controversy-whatsoever/">insists that he's sticking with Cousins.</a> We are only three weeks into the NFL season, but it seems clear that Cousins is at best a game-manager and at worse a turnover machine.</p><p>If Cousins continues to throw so many interceptions, Gruden really ought to give McCoy or - dare we even suggest it - Griffin another shot as the starter.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-secrets-history-national-football-league-2015-9">Surprising NFL secrets that even the biggest fans don't know</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="QzMDdodzoeMezISt_IhrCIpG5TFSePKp" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Kirk Cousins is throwing a startling amount of interceptions - and the Redskins QB situation is once again a nightmare

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Mark Humphrey/AP</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Marcus Mariota is the only 2015 first-round draft pick yet to sign a rookie deal with his team.</p><p>As the Tennessee Titans head into training camp, they may be without Mariota, who's still fighting over a tiny detail in his contract with the Titans.</p><p><a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13257659/tennessee-titans-determined-offset-language-quarterback-marcus-mariota-contract">According to ESPN's Paul Kuharsky</a>, the Titans and Mariota are battling over a small detail called "offset language" in Mariota's contract.</p><p>The Titans want offset language. It would keep them from having to pay Mariota if they cut him before his four-year deal is up and he signs with another team. Mariota doesn't want offset language as it would allow him to "double-dip" and get paid by the Titans if he is cut and signs with another team.</p><p>For late-round draft picks, this could be worth fighting over - for Mariota, it's unlikely to affect him.</p><p>As <a href="http://deadspin.com/why-marcus-mariota-hasnt-signed-his-titans-contract-yet-1717943893">Deadspin's Barry Petchesky notes</a>, only five first-round quarterbacks have been cut from their rookie deals in the last decade - <span>Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Tim Tebow, Blaine Gabbert, and Brandon Weeden - and only two of them were top-1o picks.</span></p><p>Otherwise, top picks, especially the No. 2 pick, are too valuable of assets, and the Titans have been starved for franchise talent. Mariota would have to be so bad that they deem themselves better off not even keeping him as a backup. He won't be expensive, either, even if he isn't a starter. Though we don't know the exact figures of what Mariota's contract will be, <a href="http://overthecap.com/jameis-winston-official-contract-numbers/">No. 1 pick Jameis Winston will be making</a> a combined $15 million in the final two years of his contract - a small figure for a quarterback.</p><p>The Titans don't seem overly concerned with the dispute, so much as they're unwilling to bend. <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13257659/tennessee-titans-determined-offset-language-quarterback-marcus-mariota-contract">Team president Steve Wunderwood said</a>:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"We've always had offset language in our player contracts. It's nothing new. I think it is important where a high first-round draft pick is concerned, because it's the precedent. Everything that we do is precedential for the next round of contracts.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"So keeping the offset in place is something we want to be able to do going forward. And the minute you back away from the contract principle then you no longer are able to assert it going forward."</p><p>Basically, the Titans don't want to fold to Mariota, remove offset language, and then give other rookies the precedent to fight the same battle.</p><p>Both sides have reason to stand their ground. The Titans don't want to go into training camp on July 30 without their new quarterback, nor does Mariota want to miss valuable practice time. One side will eventually have to fold, but, historically speaking, if this tiny detail matters a few years down the road, it means something else has gone wrong for Mariota and the Titans.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/dominant-athletes-every-sport-lebron-serena-williams-ronaldo-2015-6">These are the most dominant athletes in every sport</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="VkMHNpdTq72FMJUoWBzrsKDxphswdccL" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

The Titans and Marcus Mariota are battling over a tiny contract detail that's highly unlikely to affect him

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>Johnny Manziel is great.</p>
<p>Sports is entertainment, and Manziel is an entertainer in a league that has a frustrating aversion to outgoing personalities. <span style="line-height: 1.5em;">We'd love nothing more than to see him ripping up NFL defenses every week.</span></p>
<p>But Manziel <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/johnny-manziel-benched-2014-8">losing the Cleveland Browns quarterback competition to Brian Hoyer</a> is not a good thing. The numbers suggests that rookies who win the starting job in Week 1 turn out to be better players than their peers. In addition, the recent track record of 1st-round picks who fail to start in Week 1 is worrisome.</p>
<p>In the last seven years the conventional wisdom about how rookie quarterbacks should be integrated into the NFL has changed.</p>
<p>NFL teams used to treat rookie quarterbacks as apprentices, sitting them on the bench for months until they were completely ready to play. The theory used to be that throwing rookies into the fire would hinder their development. Was this true?</p>
<p>We looked at the performance of 1st-round quarterbacks from 1999 to 2009. Using <a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/">Chase Stuart's expected draft value data</a> (which assigns a value to every draft position) and ProFootballReference's <a href="http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=combined&amp;year_min=1999&amp;year_max=2014&amp;season_start=1&amp;season_end=5&amp;age_min=0&amp;age_max=99&amp;league_id=&amp;team_id=&amp;is_active=&amp;is_hof=&amp;pos_is_qb=Y&amp;c1stat=av&amp;c1comp=gt&amp;c1val=0&amp;c2stat=&amp;c2comp=gt&amp;c2val=&amp;c3stat=&amp;c3comp=gt&amp;c3val=&amp;c4stat=&amp;c4comp=gt&amp;c4val=&amp;order_by=av&amp;draft=0&amp;draft_year_min=1936&amp;draft_year_max=2014&amp;type=&amp;draft_round_min=0&amp;draft_round_max=99&amp;draft_slot_min=1&amp;draft_slot_max=500&amp;draft_pick_in_round=0&amp;draft_league_id=&amp;draft_team_id=&amp;college_id=all&amp;conference=any&amp;draft_pos_is_qb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_rb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_wr=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_te=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_rec=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_t=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_g=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_c=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_ol=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_dt=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_de=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_dl=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_ilb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_olb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_lb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_cb=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_s=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_db=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_k=Y&amp;draft_pos_is_p=Y">"approximate value" stat</a> (an advanced metric that quantifies a player's total value), we looked at how all these QBs performed relative to expectations. </p>
<p>It turned out that the seven rookies who started in Week 1 from 1999 to 2009 were worth 78% more than their expected value based on draft position. The rookies who sat in Week 1 were worth 46% more than their expected value.</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="Tony Manfred/Business Insider" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53f4c327eab8ea9a2ff7d189-960/screen shot 2014-08-20 at 11.17.51 am.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>Tony Manfred/Business Insider</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p>The guys who convinced their teams that they were good enough to start in Week 1 generally turned out to be slightly better players than those who didn't.</p>
<p>There are a bunch of complicating factors here.</p>
<p>Stuart only uses the first five years of a player's career in his draft data (<a href="http://www.footballperspective.com/creating-a-draft-value-chart-part-ii/">check out the whole methodology here</a>), so we only used the each quarterback's total approximate value over the first five years of his career. As a result, late-bloomers like Aaron Rodgers (who didn't start as a rookie) get penalized.</p>
<p>The sample size is small, so massive busts like JaMarcus Russell (82% worse than expected) and massive hits like Joe Flacco (370% better than expected) had a disproportionate impact on the numbers.<span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> That being said, the NFL's most notorious busts (Russell, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Brady Quinn) all failed to start in Week 1.</span></p>
<p>You also have to understand that this was a different era.</p>
<p>Between 1999 and 2009, only seven of the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the draft started in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jay Cutler all sat in Week 1.</p>
<p>In general, the guys who started in Week 1 were better during this period. But plenty of players sat in Week 1 and went on to be stars.</p>
<p>Today, rookie quarterbacks who are picked in the first round are expected to start.</p>
<p>Between 2010 and 2013, seven of the 11 QBs taken in the first round started in Week 1. Here's the breakdown of 1st-round rookie quarterbacks:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Started Week 1 (7 players):</strong> Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, E.J. Manuel</li>
<li><strong>Sat Week 1 (4 players):</strong> Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder</li>
</ul>
<p>The guys is the first group are generally better than those in the second. Tebow and Gabbert are busts, and the jury is still out Locker and Ponder.</p>
<p>We're in an era when it's unusual for 1st-round rookies to sit on the bench. And the guys who have sat on the bench during this period haven't faired well when they've eventually played.</p>
<p>Again, the sample size is small. There's also a possibility that Manziel is being benched for reasons that have little to do with football. But at the end of the day, history tells us that failing to win the starting job is a bad sign.</p>

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