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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 terrorist attacks.</li><li>A routine patrol by Israeli trainee soldiers on Wednesday ended in Sinwar's death.</li></ul>After a yearlong war against Hamas that reduced much of Gaza to ruins, Israel on Wednesday killed its top target: the Hamas leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-says-killed-hamas-chief-yahya-sinwar-oct-7-mastermind-2024-10">Yahya Sinwar.</a>But it wasn't sophisticated intelligence or advanced technology that enabled Israel to locate its mark, the man regarded as the architect of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/middle-east-spiraling-year-after-hamas-october-7-israel-iran-2024-10">October 7, 2023, </a>terrorist attacks.It was persistence and sheer luck."It was the 'when' that was a matter of luck," said Bashir Abbas, a fellow at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan policy research center based in Washington, D.C."Since Israel have been following a scorched earth policy and have leveled a significant portion of Gaza to the ground, inevitably, they would have to have got Sinwar at some point."<h2 id="dbc8788e-269d-4afb-863f-39c940a82009">A year of searching</h2>Sinwar had managed to stay hidden for a year, despite intensive Israeli attempts to locate him.He traveled through <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-gaza-tunnels-have-evolved-over-the-years-2024-1">Hamas' sprawling tunnel network</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-leader-mohammed-sinwar-faked-death-lived-tunnels-israel-idf-2023-11"> </a>to evade detection. Israel said he kept a "human shield" of Israeli civilian hostages with him for protection.But Israel's military persisted, using heavy weapons, including 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, to target areas under Gaza where Sinwar and other Hamas leaders could have been hiding.Despite international pressure to leave Gaza and agree to a permanent cease-fire, Israel continued its campaign against Hamas with ground incursions and bombardments that Palestinian authorities say left more than 42,000 people dead.During that time, Israel killed several Hamas leaders, including Mohammad Deif in Gaza, and Ismail Haniyeh in an audacious explosives attack in Tehran, Iran.Israeli intelligence narrowed Sinwar's location to the city of Rafah, where he repeatedly eluded them."I think people underestimate the fact that out of all the leaders Israel has taken out so far, it took the longest to get to Sinwar because he was in Gaza," said Abbas."The Hamas networks and labyrinths made it difficult, whereas in Lebanon, or Tehran where Ismail Haniyeh was killed, it's much more easy to be precise."<h2 id="05a90671-7b49-4184-9967-1a914e9abe69">A chance encounter</h2>A unit from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 828th Bislamach Brigade conducted Wednesday's operation in Gaza.Trainee squad commanders were taking part in a routine patrol of Tal al-Sultan, an area of Rafah, when they chanced upon three militants and exchanged fire, Israeli officials said.Unbeknownst to them, one was Sinwar.He ran into a nearby building, and the soldiers sent a drone after him. On Thursday, the Israeli military released footage from the drone showing Sinwar, wounded in the hand, covered in dust, his face hidden by a scarf.Not long after, a tank opened fire on the building, killing Sinwar.It was not until the next morning that the IDF realized who it may have killed. Part of a finger was sent back for DNA testing, confirming it was Sinwar."This wasn't a Haniyeh-style precise assassination," said Urban Coningham, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. "This is luck."<h2 id="698ef0b6-bdbd-489a-b031-745a1ba58c67">What next?</h2>Sinwar's death may prove a pivotal moment in the conflict. President Joe Biden called on Israel to use the moment to broker a cease-fire to return the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza home."It's sort of similar, if not more impactful than when the US finally managed to get Bin Laden," said Coningham. "This is a major security success for Netanyahu and for restoring the Israeli people's confidence in IDF after October 7."However, the future remains unclear, with analysts at the US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-17-2024">Institute for the Study of War </a>saying on Wednesday that Hamas would be unlikely to back down from the demand for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, a sticking point in ceasefire negotiations."It's the oldest lesson from counter-insurgency campaigns in the past," said Abbas of the Stimson Center, pointing to deaths of former ISIS and Hezbollah leaders."Just because you decapitate an organization's leadership does not mean the organization is finished."

Israel killed its most-wanted target thanks to 2 things: luck and persistence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran, per Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.</li><li>Haniyeh was in Tehran for Iran's new president's inauguration; Hamas blames Israel.</li></ul>Top Hamas leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-killed-top-hamas-commanders-gaza-not-those-wants-most-2024-4">Ismail Haniyeh</a> has been killed in Iran, according to a statement from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps early Wednesday.Tasnim News, an IRGC-linked media channel, posted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Tasnimnews_Fa/status/1818481556505182405">a statement announcing Haniyeh's death</a> in Tehran on Wednesday morning local time. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/30/world/israel-gaza-war-lebanon-hezbollah">New York Times</a>, the <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779">Associated Press</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/30/middleeast/hamas-political-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a> also reported on the killing. Haniyeh, 62, was the leader of Hamas' political wing. He joined the militant group in the late 1980s.In a statement published by the Hamas-affiliated Shehab news agency, the group accused Israel of killing Haniyeh in a "treacherous" attack on his residence in Tehran.Haniyeh was previously in exile in Qatar. He had traveled to Tehran to attend the inauguration of Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's new president, according to multiple reports.No party has claimed responsibility for the killing at press time.In October, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, vowed a "mighty vengeance" on Hamas and its leaders for its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which saw some 1,200 people killed and around 250 people taken hostage.When contacted for comment on Iranian state media reports, the Israeli military <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-beirut-explosion-07-30-24#h_bac604dcad44e7f76393912aee9feed8">told CNN</a> they "don't respond to reports in the foreign media." A White House spokesperson told the outlet it was aware of the reports but declined to comment.Representatives for the Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.Haniyeh's reported death comes hours after Israel struck the Lebanese capital of Beirut, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7">killing a top Hezbollah commander</a> who it said was responsible for a deadly rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights over the weekend.This story is developing. Please check back for more updates.

One of Hamas' top leaders has been killed in Iran, according to reports

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Israeli military said it killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during an operation in Gaza.</li></ul>The Israeli military said Thursday that it killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during an operation in Gaza, eliminating the architect of the massacre that Hamas executed on October 7, 2023.The Israeli military said in a statement that soldiers from its Southern Command killed Sinwar on Wednesday.Earlier on Thursday, the Israeli military said it was checking the possibility that it had killed Sinwar along with two other unnamed "terrorists" but could not confirm whether it had done so."In the building where the terrorists were eliminated, there were no signs of the presence of hostages in the area," the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement. "The forces that are operating in the area are continuing to operate with the required caution."Sinwar's death is a significant turning point for Israel and its yearlong war to eradicate Hamas. The Israeli government, with US support, had made it a key objective to kill him following its October 7 attacks, which left 1,200 people dead and triggered the war in Gaza and wider hostilities across the Middle East.But despite months of intense Israeli air and ground operations that have leveled much of Gaza, Sinwar <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-killed-top-hamas-commanders-gaza-not-those-wants-most-2024-4">managed to remain elusive</a>. Israel's military has used heavy weapons, including 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, to collapse Hamas' sprawling tunnel network under Gaza, where he was believed to be hiding."Our enemies cannot hide. We will pursue and eliminate them," Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wrote in a rather <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1846911544526807303">opaque post</a> on social media after the IDF first said that it was checking to see whether Sinwar was dead.The conflict has been at an impasse with Sinwar missing and Hamas, under his authority, rejecting cease-fire talks. In the meantime, Israel's military opened a northern front with a ground invasion into southern Lebanon in an effort to end the shelling by Hamas ally Hezbollah. Israel's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-no-win-situation-gaza-after-months-war-crush-hamas-2024-1">devastating Gaza war</a> has left over 40,000 Palestinians dead — most of them civilians, per local assessments. And there are dire warnings that amid the fighting, the humanitarian crisis is worsening.The 62-year-old Sinwar had been the leader of Hamas in Gaza since 2017 and the leader of its political wing following the July <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">assassination of Ismail Haniyeh</a>.The killing of Sinwar comes after Israel took out most of Hezbollah's leadership in Lebanon, including its longtime leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-likely-used-bunker-buster-bombs-strike-kill-hezbollah-chief-2024-9">Hassan Nasrallah</a>, and amid heightened <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">tensions with Iran</a>, which supports both Hezbollah and Hamas.

Israel says it killed Hamas leader and Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ismail Haniyeh, one of the top members of Hamas, was killed on Wednesday.</li><li>Iranian officials accused Israel of conducting the attack. Israel has not commented.</li></ul>Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, was killed on Wednesday.Details are still emerging about exactly how he died. But one thing is clear — he was supposed to be safe.Haniyeh was visiting an ally, Iran. He was in the capital for the swearing-in of its new president, a high-profile public occasion.In the hours before he died he had audiences with the president and Iran's supreme leader.That proximity to power did not keep him alive — to the outrage of his Iranian hosts.<div type="image" title="Ismail Haniyeh (left) meeting with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran" height="3336" width="4416" msid="112174920" hostid="261" sizebytes="488796"></div><h2 id="c552214f-4fb9-41af-91f0-440f0bf9129a">'Humiliating' blow</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Tasnim News</a>, an outlet with links to the authorities in Iran, said a guided projectile struck his dwelling in northern Tehran at around 2 a.m.Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack, but Hamas and Iran blamed Israel. Israel didn't comment, but has carried out similar attacks before.According to Middle East and military experts, Haniyeh's death is a "humiliating" blow to Iran.Andrew Fox, a research <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://henryjacksonsociety.org/2024/07/10/major-ret-andrew-fox-joins-the-henry-jackson-society-as-new-research-fellow/">fellow</a> at the Henry Jackson Society, said the killing "sends a very clear message to Iran about Israel's ability to strike inside their borders."Fox said Haniyeh was of limited tactical significance as a target and could be easily replaced — but his loss still took a symbolic toll.<h2 id="a15ab7a0-d415-4e16-8c96-501278983e57">A history of attacks</h2>It wouldn't be the first time Israel has conducted military operations deep inside Iran.Israeli operatives gunned down Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, a high-ranking Egyptian member of Al-Qaeda, on the streets of Tehran in August 2020, four officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/13/world/middleeast/al-masri-abdullah-qaeda-dead.html#:~:text=Abdullah%20Ahmed%20Abdullah%2C%20who%20went,Laden's%20son%20Hamza%20bin%20Laden.">told The New York Times</a> at the time.In November 2020, a Mossad team killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian nuclear physicist said to be the leader of Iran's nuclear program.Ameneh Mehvar, a Middle East Regional Specialist with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), said the latest attack reflected poorly on Iran.She called the killing "humiliating" and "damaging" to its image in the region.It "shows how deep Israel has likely infiltrated Iranian intelligence circles," she said.Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Global Governance Centre and the Sanctions and Sustainable Peace Hub at the Geneva Graduate Institute, went further.He told BI that an "embarrassing security failure" like this would damage Iran's credibility among its allies and perhaps push it into a counterattack to save face."Tehran will likely feel pressure to retaliate in some form despite wanting to remain untouched by the Israel-Hamas war," he said.<h2 id="76feb6af-8a0f-44d5-92b7-d3f8d8a1cd6d">A new phase of brinkmanship</h2>Tensions between Israel and Iran were high even before Haniyeh's killing.Iran and Israel have for decades fought a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-israel-dragged-shadow-war-from-darkness-now-more-dangerous-2024-4">shadow war</a> of espionage and assassination.<div type="image" title="Palestinians carried a placard bearing the image of the leader of the militant Hamas group during a protest in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron" height="1333" width="2000" msid="112174914" hostid="261" sizebytes="251552"></div>Since Hamas launched terror attacks on Israel on October 7, groups allied with Iran — the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah — have targeted Israel, with attacks sometimes spilling over into neighboring countries and directly involving Iran.An exchange of attacks in April on an Iranian embassy in Syria and then a return attack on Israeli soil <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-strike-isfahan-sends-strong-message-nuclear-experts-say-2024-4">marked an earlier escalation</a> that stopped short of further conflict.According to Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, the attack on Haniyeh represents a "new phase of brinkmanship" in the region."While it is not the first targeted assassination against a high-level figure within the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' at this juncture of intense tit-for-tat and a high-stakes geopolitical conflict, it will have ripple effects across the region," she told BI.Haniyeh's assassination and the recent killing of Hezbollah commander <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7">Fuad Shukr</a> in Beirut will "galvanize" other Iran-backed armed proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, he said.This, he said, "creates a dangerous conflagration of threats to Israel and Western interests in the region, notably in the Red Sea, where the Houthis will likely escalate their attacks."Mehvar from ACLED, meanwhile, predicted an Iranian counterattack that was "harsher" but "proportionate," likely carried out with allies.Fox, of the Henry Jackson Society, foresaw "some kind of minor" escalation in rocket attacks from Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, followed by a return to the earlier precarious status quo."They will not want to escalate to the point where the West steps in, as they did during the rocket attacks in April, which were also an embarrassing failure," he said.

The killing of a top Hamas leader in its backyard is 'humiliating' for Iran, experts say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel appeared to carry out two significant assassinations this week in Lebanon and Iran.</li><li>IDF jets killed a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon shortly before a Hamas leader was blown up in Iran.</li></ul>Israel claimed responsibility earlier this week for a deadly strike that killed a top Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, and just hours later, it became the leading suspect in a sophisticated scheme that assassinated Hamas' political chief in Iran.The stunning, back-to-back killings mark two significant intelligence successes for Israel, and demonstrate its ability to secretly track its enemies and strike them with cold precision, Middle East security and counterterrorism experts told Business Insider.But the strategic repercussions of these strikes remain to be seen, as the dual assassinations have also sparked fears of large-scale retaliation from Iran and its proxies, like Hezbollah and Hamas, which could kill more Israelis and plunge the region into even more conflict.<h2 id="0768e516-6c2d-42bc-9422-85c294aae606">A strike in Lebanon</h2>On Tuesday, Israeli fighter jets carried out a strike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7">killing Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>.<div type="image" title="A photo taken on July 30 shows the destroyed top floors of an eight-story building following an Israeli military strike on Beirut's southern suburb." height="2976" width="4464" msid="112230539" hostid="261" sizebytes="1615736"></div>Shukr served on Hezbollah's Jihad Council, its highest military body, and was a senior advisor to the group's secretary-general, Hasan Nasrallah. The US government also held him responsible for the 1983 <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-beirut-barracks-bombing-risk-clash-israel-hamas-hezbollah-iran-2023-10">bombing of the US Marine Corps barracks</a> in Beirut and had placed a $5 million bounty on his head.The Israel Defense Forces blamed Shukr for a deadly rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that took place just days prior and said it killed him in retaliation.Jonathan Lord, formerly a political military analyst at the Pentagon, said the operation to kill Shukr was likely informed by combat intelligence. Israel found where he was at a specific time and took the shot when it had the opportunity."Their ability to track these individuals in fairly real time, find out where they are, where they're going to be, and then to be able to launch a surgical strike against them — it's an impressive capability," said Lord, the director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.<div type="image" title="A man waves a Hezbollah and a Palestinian flag during the funeral procession of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1." height="1446" width="2170" msid="112230538" hostid="261" sizebytes="219728"></div>Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the Beirut strike demonstrated precision targeting that left minimal collateral damage; three other people were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/31/hezbollahsays-top-commander-fuad-shukr-killed-in-israel-strike-on-beirut">reportedly</a> killed, including two children.<h2 id="d38b8905-5ce1-4266-a05b-271148abf25b">'Reputation is everything'</h2>Hours following the Beirut strike, a more seismic incident occurred: Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">was killed in Iran</a> shortly after he attended the swearing-in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.The circumstances surrounding Haniyeh's death were initially unclear, and it was first thought that he died from an airstrike. However, The New York Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">reported</a> on Thursday that he was killed by an explosive device that had been smuggled months ago into the guesthouse where he was staying in Tehran and remotely detonated once it was clear Haniyeh was in the room.Iran and Hamas blamed Israel for Haniyeh's assassination and promised revenge.<div type="image" title="A man waves a Hezbollah and a Palestinian flag during the funeral procession of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1." height="1446" width="2170" msid="112230538" hostid="261" sizebytes="219728"></div>Israel has not publicly acknowledged its involvement, but Israeli officials — including the leader of the country's vaunted Mossad intelligence agency — have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-03-2024-fc2394531bef8238e86879dd98ea435b">vowed to hunt down Hamas leaders</a> responsible for the October 7 massacre wherever they are.The Mossad has a long history of carrying out Israeli assassination operations outside the country. Axios later <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/01/haniyeh-assassination-mossad">reported</a> that it was Mossad agents who planted the explosive device in the Tehran guesthouse, which is run by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and detonated it from Iranian soil."Astonishingly, Israel had the assets and the capability to gain access to what should have been one of the most highly defended and secured targets in Iran," Hoffman said.Adding to the significant announcements this week, Israel on Thursday said it killed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-mohammad-deif-mastermind-hamas-attack-israel-palestine-gaza-2023-10">Mohammed Deif</a>, the commander of Hamas' military wing, in a mid-July strike in Gaza. Hamas did not immediately confirm his death in the strike, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-war-mohammed-deif-9524d7d5c8f7321f4d8c931fde664556">reportedly</a> killed dozens of Palestinians.<div type="image" title="An anti-Israeli billboard hangs at Palestine Square in Tehran on July 31." height="1428" width="2148" msid="112230537" hostid="261" sizebytes="482676"></div>Yoav Gallant, Israel's defense minister, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1818930330230812684">said</a> Thursday that "the operation was conducted precisely and professionally" by the IDF and Israeli security forces.Lord, the former Pentagon analyst, said tactical intelligence is "definitely a strong suit of the Israelis," but he stressed that this must be weighed against some of the apparent breakdowns that the country's elite intelligence community faced leading up to the October 7 attacks.Israel's political, intelligence, and security apparatuses came under immense scrutiny following the deadly massacre as the public tried to make sense of how the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-israel-military-failed-stop-hamas-attacks-country-troubles-deeper-2023-10">worst breach of the country's defenses</a> since the 1973 Yom Kippur War could occur.Top officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-elite-intelligence-unit-saw-signs-hamas-prepared-attack-report-2023-11">missed and ignored several warnings</a> that Hamas was preparing a major attack, believing such an event couldn't happen and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-probe-said-to-find-pre-oct-7-intel-shouldve-been-enough-to-thwart-hamas-attack/">failed to respond</a> to signs of an imminent attack. In April, Israel's military intelligence chief <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68873227.amp">resigned</a> and said his directorate "did not live up to the task we were entrusted with."Hoffman said Israel's recent string of targeted killings is its attempt to reestablish the dominant reputation of its intelligence community and restore its deterrent capability so it can make good on future threats and appear stronger in the face of regional adversaries like Iran."Israel understands that reputation is everything in the Middle East," Hoffman said. "So gaining that back with this particular series of assassinations was absolutely pivotal."

Israel scored major intelligence wins in daring assassinations of Iranian proxy leaders 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>More than six months after Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre, Israel is still fighting the militants in Gaza.</li><li>The IDF has managed to kill some of Hamas' top commanders, but it continues to hunt down others.</li></ul>More than six months into its war in Gaza, Israel has little to show for its efforts. It has been unable to kill or capture the most senior members of Hamas' leadership, and its scorched-earth offensive has left a trail of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-pounding-gaza-massive-spice-kit-bombs-2023-12">death and destruction</a> in its wake.Israel's inability thus far to eliminate the top Hamas commanders it wants most is complicating ones of its stated war aims: crushing the militant group. Officials have said that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/researchers-mapped-gaza-damage-buildings-destroyed-israel-hamas-2023-12">devastating war</a> — triggered by Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre that killed some 1,200 people — will continue until the country achieves its goals, which include returning all the hostages, destroying Hamas, and demilitarizing the entirety of Gaza.But securing these objectives in full is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-no-win-situation-gaza-after-months-war-crush-hamas-2024-1">proving to be elusive</a> for the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF. Fears are growing that many of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-may-not-have-enough-living-hostages-for-cease-fire-deal-61606c66?mod=hp_lead_pos3">remaining hostages</a> may already be dead, Israeli clearing operations throughout Gaza have not prevented Hamas from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/idf-retreat-al-shifa-hospital-palestinians-rubble-dead-rcna147061">returning to areas</a> that were once the sites of hard-fought and bloody battles, and there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus on a workable post-war governance plan.Israel has claimed that it has eliminated a significant number of mid- to senior-level commanders of Hamas' military wing, known as the al-Qassam Brigades. In December, for instance, the IDF <a target="_blank" href="https://videoidf.azureedge.net/1543a902-563c-4939-8393-7256844f7c38">released a photo</a> purporting to show multiple commanders it had killed.<div type="image" title="Israeli soldiers are seen near the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on March 4, 2024." height="3744" width="5616" msid="109272057" hostid="261" sizebytes="500192"></div>A mid-March Israeli airstrike killed Marwan Issa, the deputy head of Hamas' military wing who had been hiding in an underground compound in central Gaza, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.idf.il/185100">according</a> to the IDF.Jake Sullivan, who serves as the White House national security advisor, identified Issa as Hamas' "number three" in Gaza and said that after his death last month that Israel had "killed thousands of Hamas fighters, including senior commanders."The exact number of militants killed is unclear. Israel said in late-February that it had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-12000-hamas-fighters-killed-in-gaza-war-double-the-terror-groups-claim/">killed 12,000 members</a> of Hamas' 30,000-strong pre-war force. Hamas, by contrast, claimed at the time that its death toll was only half of that figure.As of this week, more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed since Oct. 7, including 25,000 women and children, according to figures released by Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry. The death toll, which is cited by the United Nations, does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.<div type="image" title="Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis on April 8, 2024." height="5492" width="8238" msid="109272060" hostid="261" sizebytes="2268502"></div>Israel has also managed to strike at Hamas' political wing, which operates in exile in Qatar.An <a target="_blank" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/saleh-al-arouri-mastermind-of-hamas-terrorism-in-west-bank-hostage-deal-negotiator/">early January explosion</a> in a Beirut suburb eliminated Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas">political bureau</a>, which is often referred to as its politburo. He was the militant group's senior official in Lebanon, responsible for maintaining ties with Hezbollah, another Iran-backed proxy force like Hamas.And more recently, on Wednesday, the IDF and Israel's Shin Bet security agency confirmed in a joint <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/idfofficial/7409">announcement</a> that an airstrike in central Gaza had killed three sons of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing.All three men were known to be Hamas military operatives, Israel said. Haniyeh <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/68783840">responded</a> to their deaths by stating that this incident would not change his demands to stop the fighting.<div type="image" title="Smoke rises to the sky after an explosion in Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel on April 4, 2024." height="1448" width="2166" msid="109272063" hostid="261" sizebytes="57316"></div>But several <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/">top Hamas military leaders</a>, including those most wanted by Israel, remain at-large. This includes figures such as Yahya Sinwar, the overall head of the organization in Gaza, his brother Mohammed, a leader in the al-Qassam Brigades, and Mohammed Deif, who is the commander of the military wing."The rest of the top leaders are in hiding, likely deep in the Hamas tunnel network," Sullivan said during a March White House briefing. "And justice will come for them too, and we are helping to ensure that."Hamas' vast and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-invasion-gaza-hamas-hardest-fighting-underground-tunnels-warfare-2023-10">sophisticated tunnel network</a> underneath Gaza — where the militants have been able to hide and facilitate the movement of weapons, and from which they can launch surprise assaults — has proven to be a headache for Israeli forces.Retired Maj. Gen. Charlie Herbert, a former officer in the British army, told Business Insider that Hamas leaders who are hiding below ground are able to maintain operational, personal, and communications security there.<div type="image" title="A supporter of the Iran-backed Houthi militia holds a poster of Yahya Sinwar during a protest marking Jerusalem Day in support of Palestinians in Yemen on April 5, 2024." height="1446" width="2174" msid="109272065" hostid="261" sizebytes="158640"></div>Israel's inability to kill them is less of an intelligence failure, said Herbert, who has also served as the senior NATO advisor to Afghanistan's interior ministry, and more that the country has yet to link any intelligence success it does have with an effective kinetic strike targeting the senior leaders.Israel has found "no real success" at getting Sinwar over the last six months, Herbert said. What it needs to do instead, he argued, is pivot away from major combat operations toward a more targeted and methodical campaign that also reduces civilian casualties, allows displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, and boosts the flow of humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave.Herbert said the Israeli military should "retain freedom of maneuver into Gaza for their military forces as and when they require and conduct an intelligence-driven counter-terrorist strategy, whacking Hamas as and when you can do."Indeed, on Thursday, the IDF announced it was beginning a "precise operation" in central Gaza, seemingly marking a new phase in its efforts to hunt down Hamas leaders. It was unclear if the move came in direct response to the killings of Haniyeh's sons the day prior.<div type="image" title="Israeli soldiers work on tanks at a staging ground near the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on April 11, 2024." height="3744" width="5616" msid="109272066" hostid="261" sizebytes="1236372"></div>"Overnight, the 162nd Division began a precise, intelligence-based operation to eliminate terrorist operatives and strike terrorist infrastructure in central Gaza," the IDF said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/idfofficial/7411">statement</a> shared to the Telegram messaging platform. What that may look like is a mystery though.The IDF announcement came just days after the IDF withdrew its forces from the southern city of Khan Younis. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the move was to prepare for "future missions," including a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netanyahu-says-civilians-in-rafah-can-just-move-away-from-an-israeli-ground-invasion">planned offensive in Rafah</a>, where scores of civilians are sheltering.The potential Rafah assault has drawn <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-administration-odds-israel-plans-rafah-invasion/story?id=109046510">concern and pushback</a> from Western governments, including the Biden administration, amid rising international criticism of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-israel-tensions-boil-after-un-ceasefire-vote-rafah-plans-2024-3">Israel's aggressive military campaign</a> as the death toll continues to mount and the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to worsen.

Israel is struggling to find and kill the top Hamas commanders it wants most

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas has reportedly agreed to a cease-fire proposal from Qatar and Egypt.</li><li>Previous proposals included the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.</li></ul>Hamas announced Monday that it had accepted a cease-fire proposal from Qatar and Egypt to temporarily stop the war with Israel.Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing, informed the prime minister of Qatar and Egypt's intelligence minister that it accepted the proposal, according to a statement carried by the Shehab News Agency, which is affiliated with the militant group.The full terms of the proposal haven't been announced. Hamas has previously demanded an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which has been devastated by seven months of war. The two sides have also negotiated over the exchange of hostages abducted by Hamas during its October 7 massacre for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.It's unclear whether Israel has accepted the terms of the Qatari and Egyptian cease-fire plan. But an anonymous Israeli official <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/wrapup1-israel-begins-evacuating-part-rafah-ahead-threatened-assault-2024-05-06/">told Reuters</a> that no cease-fire had been agreed to.The official said the proposal had stipulations that Israel wouldn't agree to, Reuters reported."This would appear to be a ruse intended to make Israel look like the side refusing a deal," the Israeli official told Reuters. The Israeli government hasn't made an official statement on the deal.Late Monday, the Israeli military said it had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-rafah-gaza-assault-warns-civilians-biden-2024-5">launched strikes into eastern parts of Rafah,</a> advancing plans that the US had warned could be a "disaster" for civilians in the area. The Israeli war cabinet said it would continue to negotiate for a cease-fire.Israel helped to formulate the most recent version of a cease-fire proposal, according to a CNN <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/middleeast/hamas-agrees-ceasefire-proposal-israel-gaza-latam-intl/index.html">report</a>, which said a deal outlined last week called for the release of between 20 and 33 hostages.After that, according to the report, the remaining Israeli hostages — as well as the bodies of dead hostages and captured Israel Defense Forces soldiers — could be exchanged for additional Palestinian prisoners.A US State Department spokesperson said Washington planned to discuss the proposal with its partners over the next few hours."I can confirm that Hamas has issued a response," Matthew Miller told reporters at a briefing. "We are reviewing that response now and discussing it with our partners in the region."Miller added: "We continue to believe that a hostage deal is in the best interest of the Israeli people. It's in the best interest of the Palestinian people. It would bring an immediate cease-fire. It would allow increased movement of humanitarian assistance, and so we're going to continue to work to try to reach one."Hours before Hamas' announcement, the Israeli military ordered civilians in eastern Rafah to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-rafah-gaza-assault-warns-civilians-biden-2024-5">temporarily evacuate</a> to what it described as a "humanitarian area" slightly northwest.The evacuation orders are the clearest sign yet that the IDF is preparing intensive military action in Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where more than 1 million Palestinians have been sheltering since Israeli forces began their assault on the coastal enclave.The prospect of an Israeli operation in Rafah has been a key source of tension between Israel and the US, its main ally, as international pressure continues to mount amid a rising civilian death toll in Gaza.

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