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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman welcomed Donald Trump's first election win.</li><li>But this time round, Gulf leaders may be wary about his victory.</li></ul>Donald Trump's first trip as US president to Saudi Arabia in 2017 was a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-orb-shoes-sword-dancing-toby-keith-saudi-arabia-foreign-trip-2017-5">lavish spectacle.</a>He joined a traditional sword dance, had his image projected onto the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh, and signed a multibillion-dollar arms deal with the kingdom.At the time, leaders like Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman lavished praise on him and welcomed his brash style, particularly toward Iran.Now, however, attitudes toward Iran have changed, and Gulf leaders' reactions to Trump's reelection as US president will likely be less enthusiastic.<div type="image" title="Saudi Arabia's King Salman, second on the left, and Donald Trump, second on the right, participate in a sword dance in Riyadh." height="717" width="1024" msid="115265072" hostid="261" sizebytes="62242"></div>"Gulf Arab states have concerns about Trump being unpredictable and the risks of having him back in the White House," Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of consultancy Gulf State Analytics, told Business Insider.Of particular concern, said Cafiero, is the fear that Trump could inflame the Middle East <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/middle-east-spiraling-year-after-hamas-october-7-israel-iran-2024-10">at a time when it is on the brink </a>of all-out regional war.<h2 id="6a9133ec-4750-4651-ae73-3a8a615836c6">The Middle East on the brink</h2>The threat of an all-out regional war in the Middle East was triggered by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-military-superiority-lacks-strategic-vision-iran-lebanon-gaza-war-2024-10">Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel</a> on October 7, 2023.In response, Israel has sought to destroy Hamas and its ally, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. It's launched attacks on Gaza and Lebanon that have devastated the Iran-backed groups and resulted in tens of thousands of civilian casualties.The war could escalate into a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, with Iran launching missile attacks on Israel twice this year, and Israel responding with strikes on targets in the Islamic Republic.President Joe Biden provided military backing to Israel after October 7 and tried to persuade its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to scale back Israel's response.Trump, during his term in office, backed controversial Israeli policies such as West Bank settlements and had a warm relationship with Netanyahu.Some in the region are concerned he'd offer Israel even stronger support for its wars than Biden, said Cafiero."His first administration had a highly Israel-centered foreign policy in the region and there are many open questions about how he'll approach the wars in Gaza and Lebanon after his second term begins in January 2025," he added.<h2 id="b7a3a45f-2097-4821-9973-4e038b84885b">MBS is likely wary</h2>Saudi's ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed, is increasingly wary that the war between Israel and Iran's<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/attacks-iran-militia-allies-the-biden-administration-in-a-bind-2024-1"> network of regional militias</a> could escalate further, pulling in the kingdom and other Gulf states.The region is a patchwork of allegiances, with the Gulf states and Israel broadly aligned with the US while Iran is aligned with Vladimir Putin's Russia.In September,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-strike-saudi-oil-sites-in-revenge-for-israeli-attack-2024-10"> Iran, through backchannels, </a>warned Saudi leaders that the kingdom's energy sector would be targeted if it allowed Israel to use Saudi airspace for attacks on Iranian oil or nuclear sites."How Trump will go about addressing such disagreements is unclear, but his unpredictable nature must be causing some policymakers in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] to have some concerns about what it will be like working with his second administration," said Cafiero.Mahjoob Zweiri, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said that world leaders have to realize that Trump is not the same man he was during his first presidency."His time in power has changed him, and his approach has evolved," he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/trumps-return-and-implications-for-the-middle-east/">said</a>. "Another significant point is his naturally rebellious political stance, which challenges the conventional norms of both domestic and foreign policy."In other words, he has a strong, personal perspective on events, and he imposes it."<div type="image" title="An Israeli bomb detonates on a hillside in southern Lebanon" height="683" width="1024" msid="115265076" hostid="261" sizebytes="58518"></div><h2 id="dd4d5b1f-edb9-41c9-bed3-5509e44ade38">A fragile peace</h2>Amid growing tensions, Crown Prince Mohammed has been trying to maintain Saudi Arabia's fragile truce with Iran.In 2023, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-middle-finger-to-biden-iran-peace-deal-brokered-by-china-2023-3">China brokered a resumption in diplomatic</a> relations between the longtime regional foes that have held despite the new wave of conflict sweeping the region.The Saudi ruler on Monday hosted Muslim leaders in Riyadh, where, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/at-riyadh-summit-saudi-crown-prince-backs-iran-accuses-israel-of-genocide/">according to reports, </a>he described Israel's attacks on Palestinian civilians as a "genocide" and condemned its attacks on Iran.Both Trump and Biden had sought to broker a deal to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but the future of the deal appears at best uncertain amid regional hostility to Israel's campaign.Analysts say Crown Prince Mohammed believes that tamping down regional conflict is crucial for achieving his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-vision-2030-projects-trillion-value-neom-2024-9">grand ambitions of transforming</a> Saudi Arabia's economy as part of his Vision 2030 Project.He's also concerned about potential Iranian ballistic missile attacks, and domestic anger at Israel in Saudi Arabia, executive vice president of the Washington, DC-based Quincy Institute Trita Parsi <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/12/middleeast/saudi-mbs-accuses-israel-genocide-gaza-intl/index.html">told CNN.</a>"Now that there is much uncertainty in the region with direct Iran-Israel confrontations moving toward a point of becoming increasingly normalized, and the Trump 2.0 factor, Riyadh and Tehran have been signaling to each other that they remain committed to the Beijing-brokered diplomatic deal," said Cafiero.If the Iran-Israel confrontation intensifies and the US gets pulled in, it's unclear if Trump would respect Saudi Arabia's wish to remain on the sidelines."If Trump puts you in a situation where you have to decide [which side to take] because he's going against Iran, it's a big problem," a senior Arab diplomat told <a target="_blank" href="https://archive.is/GpzGl#selection-2385.0-2385.224">The Financial Times this week.</a> "Trump is not the kind of guy who takes 'no' for an answer."

Saudi Arabia's ruler used to be one of Trump's biggest fans. This time it's complicated.

India was the fourth largest military spender globally in 2023 with an expenditure of USD 83.6 billion, behind the US, China and Russia, according to a report by an independent international think-tank. The report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shared on its website in April also said the "rise" in global military spending last year can be attributed "primarily to the ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia and Oceania and the Middle East". The military expenditure went up in all five geographical regions, with major spending increases recorded in Europe, Asia and Oceania and the Middle East, it said. The report comes amid ongoing conflicts in various parts of the world such as the ones involving Israel-Hamas, Iran-Israel, Russian-Ukraine besides volatility in the Red Sea region. "World military expenditure increased for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a total of USD 2443 billion. The 6.8 per cent increase in 2023 was the steepest year-on-year rise since 2009 and pushed global spending to the highest level SIPRI has ever recorded," according to the report. The <keyword id="21404979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-military-burden" source="keywords">world military burden</keyword> -- defined as military spending as a percentage of global gross domestic product (GDP) -- increased to 2.3 per cent in 2023. Average military expenditure as a share of government expenditure rose by 0.4 percentage points to 6.9 per cent in 2023 and world military spending per person was the highest since 1990 at USD 306, it added. With military expenditure of USD 83.6 billion in 2023, India was the "fourth largest spender globally". Indian spending was up by 4.2 per cent from 2022 and by 44 per cent from 2014. The increase in India's military spending was "mainly a result of growing personnel and operations costs" which made up almost 80 per cent of the total military budget in 2023, the <keyword id="20911352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIPRI-report" source="keywords">SIPRI report</keyword> claimed. "This aligns with the government's priority to strengthen the operational readiness of the armed forces amid ongoing tensions with China and Pakistan. In comparison, capital outlays to fund military procurement remained relatively stable at around 22 per cent of the budget in 2023," it said. A total of 75 per cent of these outlays went towards equipments produced domestically, which was the highest level ever and up from 68 per cent in the previous year. The continued shift towards domestic procurement reflects India's goal of becoming self-reliant in arms development and production, the think-tank said in its repot fact sheet shared on its website. The Indian Army has maintained that deployment of its troops and other elements along the LAC is "extremely robust" and "balanced". The eastern <keyword id="21271073" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ladakh-border-standoff" source="keywords">Ladakh border standoff</keyword> erupted on May 5, 2020, following a violent clash in the Pangong Lake area. The ties between India and China nose-dived significantly following the clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades. SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, it provides data, analysis and recommendations based on open sources to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Stockholm-based think-tank monitors developments in military expenditure worldwide and maintains the most comprehensive, consistent and extensive publicly available data source on military expenditure, according to its online portal. The US military spending was USD 916 billion in 2023, which was 2.3 per cent more than in 2022 and 9.9 per cent more than in 2014, the report said. The US remained by far the largest spender in the world, allocating 3.1 times more to the military than the second largest spender China. "The biggest percentage increase among all US military spending categories in 2023 was for 'research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&amp;E)". The Stockholm-based think-tank also said in its report that Ukraine was the "eighth largest spender" in 2023 after a spending surge of 51 per cent to reach USD 64.8 billion. This gave Ukraine "a military burden of 37 per cent and represented 58 per cent of total government spending". "Ukraine's military spending in 2023 was 59 per cent the size of Russia's. However, Ukraine also received at least USD 35 billion in military aid during the year, including USD 25.4 billion from the US. Combined, this aid and Ukraine's own military spending were equivalent to about 91 per cent of Russian spending," the report claimed. According to the report, Russia's military spending increased by 24 per cent to an estimated USD 109 billion in 2023. "China, the world's second largest military spender, allocated an estimated USD 296 billion to the military in 2023, an increase of 6 per cent from 2022. This was the 29th consecutive year-on-year rise in China's military expenditure. China accounted for half of total military spending across the Asia and Oceania region. Several of China's neighbours have linked their own spending increases to China's rising military expenditure," the Stockholm-based think-tank claimed in its report. In 2023, the 31 <keyword id="20763732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NATO-members" source="keywords">NATO members</keyword> accounted for USD 1,341 billion, equal to 55 per cent of the world's military expenditure, the report said. 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India fourth largest military spender globally in 2023: SIPRI report

<div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image"><a href="http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/18/20561148-irans-president-rouhani-we-will-never-develop-nuclear-weapons?lite">NBC News</a></div></div>In what amounts to a dressing down of U.S. foreign policy, newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani runs the risk of looking like the sober man in the room.
Following Vladimir Putin's lead, Rouhani took to American newspaper The <keyword id="6354998" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Washington">Washington</keyword> Post <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-of-iran-hassan-rouhani-time-to-engage/2013/09/19/4d2da564-213e-11e3-966c-9c4293c47ebe_story.html">to voice his broad approach to foreign policy</a> in the Middle East.
First he addresses the oversimplified "unilateral" approach to solving conflict:
More than a decade and two wars after 9/11, al-Qaeda and other militant extremists continue to wreak havoc. <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/irans-president-rouhani-responds-to-syria-weapons-deal/2013/09/16/55c63526-1ec1-11e3-9ad0-96244100e647_story.html" data-xslt="_http">Syria</a>, a jewel of civilization, has become the scene of heartbreaking violence, including <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nearly-1500-killed-in-syrian-chemical-weapons-attack-us-says/2013/08/30/b2864662-1196-11e3-85b6-d27422650fd5_story.html" data-xslt="_http">chemical weapons attacks</a>, which we strongly <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/an-ally-of-syria-iran-also-bears-scars-from-chemical-weapons-attacks--by-iraq/2013/09/12/2d2eaa6e-1b8b-11e3-80ac-96205cacb45a_story.html" data-xslt="_http">condemn</a>. In Iraq, 10 years after the American-led invasion, dozens still lose their lives to violence every day. Afghanistan endures similar, endemic bloodshed.
The unilateral approach, which glorifies brute force and breeds violence, is clearly incapable of solving issues we all face, such as terrorism and extremism.
He alludes to these examples as violations of a country's identity - likely meaning their sovereignty, not unlike <a href="http://www.policymic.com/articles/63513/what-putin-s-op-ed-on-syria-was-really-about">the Putin-Syria argument</a> - and pivots to <keyword id="41896" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Iran">Iran</keyword>'s nuclear program.
Counter what <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-iran-usa-obama-idUSBRE98I0VZ20130919">previous statements</a> may have indicated, he intends to keep it:
At their core, the vicious battles in Iraq, Afghanistan and <keyword id="6354913" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Syria">Syria</keyword> are over the nature of those countries' identities and their consequent roles in our region and the world. The centrality of identity extends to the case of our peaceful nuclear energy program. To us, mastering the atomic fuel cycle and generating nuclear power is as much about diversifying our energy resources as it is about who Iranians are as a nation, our demand for dignity and respect and our consequent place in the world.
The "consequent place in the world" can be interpreted as a nuclear-capable state, and as such, a state thusly impervious to "unilateral" identity adjustments.
"The ultimate aim of Iran, as I understand it, is they want to be recognized as a major power in the Middle East," Mohamed ElBaradei <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/19/iran.nuclear.weapon/">said in 2009</a>, when he was Director of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency.
"This is to them the road to get that recognition, to power and prestige," he said, and "also an insurance policy against what they have heard in the past about regime change, axis of evil, what have you."
Rounani then finally, without saying so directly, touches on the Iran-Israel rivalry and the fate of the Palestinians - though he does so in such a soft way as to appear as the soberest, most charismatic voice in the room:
We must join hands to constructively work toward national dialogue, whether in Syria or Bahrain. We must create an atmosphere where peoples of the region can decide their own fates. As part of this, I announce my government's readiness to help facilitate dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition.
We and our international counterparts have spent a lot of time - perhaps too much time - discussing what we don't want rather than what we do want. This is not unique to Iran's international relations. In a climate where much of foreign policy is a direct function of domestic politics, focusing on what one doesn't want is an easy way out of difficult conundrums for many world leaders. Expressing what one does want requires more courage.
Of course Bahrain is a <a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/senator-seeking-contingency-plan-for-bahrain-base-1.233452">reference to the presence</a> of America's 5th Fleet and <a href="http://www.npr.org/2012/01/05/144637499/bahrain-the-revolution-that-wasnt">the argument that Washington props up a regime against the people's will</a>. Finally, Rouhani makes a veiled plea not to get bombed for continuing to enrich nuclear fuel:
After 10 years of back-and-forth, what all sides don't want in relation to our nuclear file is clear. The same dynamic is evident in the rival approaches to Syria.
Of course, while a direct departure from Holocaust denial and calls to push Israel into the sea, these are still just words.
As White House Press Secretary Jay Carney <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-iran-usa-obama-idUSBRE98I0VZ20130919">reminded everyone</a> about Iran's statements, "Actions are more important than words."

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Saudi Arabia's ruler used to be one of Trump's biggest fans. This time it's complicated.

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India fourth largest military spender globally in 2023: SIPRI report

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Iran's President Calls Out US For 'Brute Force' Diplomacy

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