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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The CEO of <keyword id="438627" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="norges-bank" source="Orion">Norges Bank</keyword> told the FT that he thinks <keyword id="30790" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="americans" source="Orion">Americans</keyword> work much harder than <keyword id="65559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="europeans" source="Orion">Europeans</keyword>.</li><li><keyword id="11356850" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nicolai-Tangen" source="Orion">Nicolai Tangen</keyword> made the remark as he explained the sovereign fund's push toward investing in the US.</li></ul>Europeans are less ambitious and don't work as hard as Americans, said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ceo-bets-10-million-against-elon-musk-ai-prediction-2024-4">Nicolai Tangen</a>, the CEO of Norway's $1.6 trillion oil fund. "There's a mindset issue in terms of acceptance of mistakes and risks. You go bust in America, you get another chance. In Europe, you're dead," Tangen told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/58fe78bb-1077-4d32-b048-7d69f9d18809">The Financial Times</a> in an interview published on Wednesday. "We are not very ambitious," Tangen added. "I should be careful about talking about work-life balance, but the Americans just work harder." Tangen made these remarks as he gave an overview of his firm's push toward investments in the US, which now make up half of the equities held by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-artificial-intelligence-investing-strategy-technique-norges-bank-investment-management-2023-6">Norges Bank.</a> Norges Bank is in charge of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, which manages revenue from the country's massive oil and gas reserves and holds some $1.6 trillion in assets. Tangen said his firm is watching the US 2024 elections closely and told the FT that it is concerned about the possible outcomes, though he declined to share more. "We just invest in America in great companies for the long term. It won't have any implications for how we allocate our capital," he said of the election, per the FT. "We have nearly half the assets in America, we will stay invested in America." The CEO added that US shares have been beating Europe's because American companies are innovating and growing technology faster than their European counterparts, telling the FT that he felt the trend is "worrisome." About <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/investments/#/">71% of Norges Bank's holdings</a> are in equities, with large stakes in US companies, including $19.2 billion in Alphabet, $17.4 billion in Amazon, and $33 billion in Apple. Norges Bank is the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-artificial-intelligence-investing-strategy-technique-norges-bank-investment-management-2023-6">world's largest sovereign wealth fund</a> and the largest single owner in the global stock market. The firm invests in 72 countries and is estimated to own 1.5% of all shares worldwide. It's true that Americans, on average, work longer hours than their European counterparts, according to data collected from 2019 to 2022 by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/data/hours-worked/average-annual-hours-actually-worked_data-00303-en">Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.</a> The average polled US worker said they worked 1,811 hours a year, or about 35 hours a week, compared to an average of 1,571 hours a year among workers in European Union countries. That's also compared to a total average of 1,752 hours a year documented by the OECD. <keyword id="21428168" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="uk-employees" source="Orion">UK employees</keyword> said in the same survey that they worked 1,532 hours a year, while German employees say they've worked the least out of all OECD countries — at an average of 1,341 hours a year, or about 26 hours a week.

'Americans just work harder' than Europeans, said the CEO of Norway's $1.6 trillion oil fund

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy looks strong, but that's tough news for those hoping for cheaper borrowing costs.</li><li>Borrowers have been waiting for lower rates to improve the affordability of everything from homes to credit cards.</li></ul>The US economy looks like it's on course for what Wall Street has long considered the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dream-economic-scenario-inflation-job-market-unemployment-growth-federal-reserve-2023-11">dream scenario</a> — but that could actually diminish the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-decision-this-week-federal-reserve-powell-inflation-2024-9">financial relief many Americans have been waiting for</a>.The no-landing scenario — in which the economy dodges a recession and continues to grow — was coveted by investors for its implications for stocks as economic strength props up the ongoing bull rally. However, the risk for everyday Americans is that rates fail to come down enough to provide meaningful relief.The case for the no-landing outcome was revived by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">blowout jobs report</a> last Friday, which showed that the economy added 254,000 jobs in September, far above economists' estimates. Meanwhile, job gains for the months of July and August were also revised upward.Those are promising signs that the economy hasn't materially weakened after years of higher interest rates, and that the Federal Reserve may not need to loosen monetary policy as much as previously thought.This week, Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research, said he thinks the Fed is done cutting rates for the rest of the year."September's strong employment report and upward revisions in July and August murdered the hard-landing scenario," Yardeni said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10#:~:text=The%20Fed%20is%20done%20cutting%20interest%20rates%20for%20the%20rest,triggered%20by%20oil%20prices%20spiking.">note</a> to clients this week.As the no-landing scenario becomes increasingly priced into the bond market — the 10-year Treasury yield is above 4% this week for the first time since August — the impact is being felt in a key segment of the economy: housing.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">The 30-year mortgage rate has crept higher</a>, not lower, since the Fed delivered its big rate cut. How further rate cuts impact mortgage costs is up in the air, and will depend on how the bond market reacts to future data.There's a secondary risk here, too. As the economy reaccelerates, inflation could become a problem again, solidifying a higher for longer interest rate outlook that many had abandoned after the Fed's jumbo rate cut last month."Stronger job creation may result in a rise in prices which further complicates the Fed's job. We think the jobs report removes the chance of another 50 bps rate cut at the meeting in November," Megan Horneman, the CIO of Verdence Capital Advisors, said on Monday.Steven Blitz, the chief US economist at TS Lombard, echoed that sentiment in a note on Tuesday. "The Fed will not get the funds rate down to 3%, but the terminal rate for this round will nevertheless end up too low and be kept there for too long. Inflation subsequently rebounds, and the Fed is back raising rates sooner than anyone expects," Blitz said. "The risk of this bad outcome arriving sooner than later rests with what has now become the biggest risk in the Fed's cut and aggressive guidance, and the one markets are not pricing — that there is no landing at all."For American consumers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-decision-this-week-federal-reserve-powell-inflation-2024-9">hoping for relief from high borrowing costs </a>for the past two years, these are unwelcome developments.The interest rate on credit card loans from commercial banks rose to 21.7% in August, the highest rate recorded in at least the last 20 years, according to Federal Reserve data.The rate on 48-month new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TERMCBAUTO48NS">auto loans</a> also rose to 8.6% in August, the highest in more than a decade.Consumer <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RCMFLOORIG">mortgage originations</a> at large banks also plunged to $44 billion in August, down from a peak of $212 billion in 2021, Philadelphia Fed data shows."With benchmark interest rates coming down, most prospective borrowers don't feel relieved of high borrowing costs," according to Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. "Financing and affording big ticket purchases is still a stretch for many Americans, whether looking at homes, cars or household items that might be paid for using a credit card."

The economy is facing a 'no-landing' scenario that undercuts the financial relief many Americans hoped for

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Much of the office market may be mired in a downturn, but demand has been strong for high-end space.</li><li>New office construction has dropped off sharply, leading to a potential upcoming shortage.</li></ul>Office vacancy is at a record high in Washington, DC, and the city is regarded as one of the nation's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-federal-government-is-cutting-back-its-office-footprint-2023-6">most challenged</a> markets – in part because of its heavy reliance on federal tenants that have continued to slim down their spaces.Yet Hilary Goldfarb, a senior managing director at Rockefeller Development who leads the company's Washington, DC, operations, has little doubt about the sleek 400,000-square-foot office property her firm is raising at 600 Fifth St.When the building is completed in mid-2026, Goldfarb says she is "confident it will be full.""This is not hope as a strategy," she added, noting that half of the project was pre-leased to the law firm Crowell &amp; Morning. "It's based on real data and real activity."Across the country, major office markets from New York to San Francisco have been pummeled by the lasting popularity of remote and hybrid work. Newly built, high-end offices, however, are finding takers.That demand has persisted even as office construction has been stifled by higher interest rates and inflation, which have pushed up costs. Worries over the health of the office market have also made lenders reluctant to finance new development.About 30 million square feet of new office space will be completed this year in the US, roughly half of what was built in 2019, before the pandemic, says CBRE, the real estate services firm. In 2025, deliveries will fall even further, to 14 million square feet, CBRE projects.While the overall office market is awash in hundreds of millions of square feet of empty space, CBRE predicts that vacancy in the market's upper segment will drop to pre-pandemic levels by 2027 – around the same time projects that are breaking ground now will be ready.A growing number of office developers have taken notice and see a budding shortage they are eager to cater to. Large office tenants, who often plan their space decisions years in advance, have also begun to recognize that while space options may abound now, they are likely to vanish in the coming years – raising interest in new development."The last six, seven months, there's not just people coming kicking the tires, there's people that are really looking to engage," said Scott Rechler, the CEO of RXR Realty, referring to what he says is growing tenant interest in 175 Park Ave., a 2.8-million-square-foot skyscraper designed by Skidmore, Owings &amp; Merrill that developers RXR and TF Cornerstone are planning next to Grand Central Terminal in midtown Manhattan.The group now aims to begin construction on the more than $4 billion, 1,575-foot-tall tower midway through 2025 and with significantly less pre-leasing than originally planned because of their growing confidence in demand. Asking rents at the tower will be above $200 per square foot, among the highest ever sought in the city."There used to be a point where we thought we would need to pre-lease all of it," Rechler said. "Now, we think that at 500,000 feet, it's probably enough to get going."Rechler said that interest in elite new space had been stoked by other high-end offerings in the market, such as One Vanderbilt, a recently built nearby tower, JPMorgan's new headquarters at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-nyc-headquarters-design-270-park-avenue-request-proposals-2021-4">270 Park Ave.</a>, and a planned skyscraper at 350 Park Ave. that will house the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-citadel-office-space-real-estate-fifth-avenue-2024-8">investment firm Citadel</a>."If your competitors have a building like that that they're identified with and you're trying to be on a parallel path, you're going to say I want to be in a space at the same level or better," Rechler said.<div type="image" title="Large conference room and office space overlooking Midtown Manhattan." height="1852" width="5000" msid="113908775" hostid="261" sizebytes="387772"></div><h2 id="5d3faa99-284e-4185-804a-807a2344cd11">Other developers are laying plans for new towers</h2>The large development firm Related Companies, meanwhile, says that four office towers it has built with Oxford Properties as part of their Hudson Yards mega-project, are now 99% full. The team is readying to begin a new 45-story, 1.1-million-square-foot office property called 70 Hudson Yards next year."We think we're going to be one of the only new buildings in '27, '28 when there's going to be no new supply," Philippe Visser, Related's president of office development, said.Even as overall office vacancy is now at 15.1% in Manhattan, according to CBRE, Visser sees little competition between the overwhelming majority of that empty space and Hudson Yards, where a number of major corporate names have migrated in recent years to take occupancy of newly built buildings. Tenants include Wells Fargo, KKR, BlackRock, Meta, and L'Oréal."All these successful companies who are looking for really dynamic office space want new construction," Visser said.70 Hudson Yards will feature an array of state-of-the-art features, including a triple-paned glass facade, which greatly enhances the insulating properties of glass exteriors and will make the building more energy efficient and appealing to sustainability-conscious office users.In Lower Manhattan, Larry Silverstein hinted that he is close to moving ahead with plans to erect the final office skyscraper at the World Trade Center, a 2.8 million-square-foot tower designed by architect Norman Foster.Rumors abound that Silverstein is close to signing a large lease with American Express that would allow the project to proceed."Just stay tuned" was all Silverstein would say about the possible deal at the tower, 2 World Trade Center.Silverstein said he was certain other tenants would fill up the remainder of the building's available space once construction is underway."When you put everything this buildings has all together, it's superior," Silverstein said. "It never left my mind that someday we would succeed in accomplishing Tower 2 – and that's where we are today."Manhattan is particularly conducive to new construction in that it has both a large captive audience of corporate office users and a deep inventory of old, outdated office properties that have fallen out of favor.But because there is so little office construction on the horizon nationally, builders have begun to lay similar plans in other markets with similar dynamics.Visser, for instance, says Related expects to break ground on a new 40-story, 925,000-square-foot office tower at 725 W. Randolph St. in Chicago by next year.Although that city is also awash in available space, the building would be one of the only available newly built office properties in the Fulton Market neighborhood, a desirable sub-district in the city's West Loop that is known for its retail and restaurants, he said.Related Ross, a spinoff development firm launched earlier this year by Related's founder, Stephen Ross, is about to begin construction on 15 City Place, a nearly 500,000-square-foot office building in West Palm Beach, Florida. The project is about 70% pre-leased to an undisclosed roster of tenants, according to Jordan Rathlev, a senior vice president of development at the company.Rathlev said he recently received a space inquiry from a financial technology firm that is seeking at least 300,000 square feet – far more than 15 City Place can accommodate. The interest from that tenant and others has given a boost to the company's ambitions to begin building a neighboring office property called 10 City Place that will also be around 500,000 square feet in size."The intent is that they're both going at the same time," Rathlev said, indicating Related's hope that it will sign enough anchor tenancy at 10 City Place to build it and 15 City Place simultaneously.<h2 id="70c57a95-0968-4007-a21d-96efb55c9ff3">A tale of two office markets</h2>There is a yawning gap between the health of top tier office space and the wider market, according to data from CBRE.The firm labels new and heavily renovated spaces that meet a host of quality measures as "prime" – a segment that encompasses only 8% of overall office inventory nationally.A net total of 49.3 million square feet of prime space was absorbed between 2020 and the first quarter of 2024, according to CBRE. Around 170.3 million square feet of net vacancy accrued in the rest of the office market during that same period.Overall office vacancy nationally was 19.1% in June, close to a record level. Prime vacancy was 15.5% and CBRE forecasts that figure will drop by almost half, to 8.2% by 2027, its pre-pandemic average."We believe that this absorption estimate is conservative, and the prime vacancy rate could return to its pre-pandemic level sooner given continued job growth," Jessica Morin, CBRE's director of US office research, said.These top-of-the-market spaces, which charged a 60% premium before the pandemic, are now 84% more expensive than competing spaces.With little supply, that differential could grow."8.2% is a healthy prime market and we expect rent growth in this tranche," Morin said.Driving the solid metrics is a lack of new supply.While a total of 44 million square feet of office space is presently under construction, only about 17.3 million square feet of it, 39% of the total, is considered prime, according to CBRE. 8 million square feet of that is pre-leased, meaning that there is only about 10 million square feet of upcoming available top quality space.<h2 id="ccbe14d6-6f15-40b7-b453-f934e9df0594">Financing remains a sticking point</h2>Even with the tailwinds, financing high end office construction remains a challenge. Banks have grown wary of lending to office projects, even those that are likely to be a financial success, because of broader concerns around declining values, increased foreclosures, and potential financial losses in the sector.Rechler said that RXR was considering "alternative strategies" to arrange financing for 175 Park Ave., as a result."The scale of this project is of a level, I'm not sure you'd be able to get enough traditional banks, as an example, to be a lender," Rechler said.Rechler said RXR has explored other routes to arrange the billions of dollars of debt necessary to fund 175 Park Ave.'s construction, including the municipal bond market, in part because the project includes $500 million of transit upgrades to Grand Central Terminal."I feel good," Rechler said, "that we'll have the right combination of pre-leasing and financing to begin next year."

What office meltdown? Developers see a shortage of high-end space and are rushing to build it. 

Big banks promised to protect the planet. Now they're doing an about-face.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The job market is flashing signs the US is still headed for a hard-landing, Danielle DiMartino Booth says.</li><li>The forecaster pointed to workers rolling off unemployment benefits, while part-time jobs have soared.</li></ul>Developments in the labor market show that the US economy isn't on solid footing, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth.The veteran forecaster and QI Research founder pointed to continued signs of weakness in the US job market, zooming in on a few key areas that are flashing signs of trouble. Booth said that more workers who once qualified for unemployment insurance are now rolling off of their benefits. Workers in most states have 26 weeks of paid unemployment benefits, but according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 21% of workers are now taking more than 27 weeks to find a new job, up 3% from last year.The average unemployment duration in the US climbed to 21 weeks in September, government data shows.The second factor is the number of part-time workers in the US, which has climbed to an all-time high and suggests that the hiring picture isn't as strong as may appear. The number of employees that <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12600000">usually work part-time climbed to 28.2 million</a> in August, the highest number since the government began recording the data in the 1960s, BLS data shows."We're not seeing these people pour into the unemployment claims pool," Booth said in a recent interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/09/23/the-market-is-in-for-a-rude-awakening-about-the-u-s-gdp-print-danielle-dimartino-booth.html">CNBC</a>, attributing many of the part-time jobs to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-make-money-gig-worker-uber-lyft-doordash-delivery-driver-2023-12">gig economy</a>, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gig-economy-overemployment-quit-job-increase-income-earnings-side-hustle-2024-3">out-of-work Americans</a> may turn to platforms like Uber or other services in order to keep money coming in. "Much different economy than we saw in 2007, 2008, because the gig economy has exploded in that period," she added.Weakness in the job market could later translate into consumer weakness, one of the economy's chief concerns, Booth predicted. Fed economists already have their eye on weaker consumer spending, with consumption falling or remaining flat in most Fed Districts, according to the central bank's latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240904.pdf">Beige Book</a>.Lower consumption already appears to be having an effect on key industries. The manufacturing sector contracted for 21 out of the last 22 months, according to the Institute of Supply Management, while inventory grew. The housing market, where activity has been suppressed over the last two years, also saw existing home sales drop another 2.5% in August, per the National Association of Realtors.Investors could see more signs of economic weakening with next quarter's GDP figures, Booth said, which are set to roll out at the end of the week.The economy is expected to have grown nearly 3% last quarter, matching the pace in the second quarter of 2024, according to the latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">Atlanta Fed GDPNow</a> reading. But GDP figures could be later revised down, Booth noted, pointing to a recent revision that showed the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economy-added-818000-fewer-jobs-ed-yardeni-says-dont-worry-2024-8">economy added nearly a million fewer jobs</a> than expected in the year leading up to March 2024.Booth has been warning of a recession for months despite most of Wall Street warming up to the prospect of a soft landing. Previously, she made the case that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-outlook-job-market-cuts-labor-unemployment-hard-landing-2024-5">US economy was already in a recession</a> despite continuing to grow in 2023 and 2024, pointing to continued weakness in the job market.

Americans running out of unemployment benefits and part-time jobs at record levels point to a recession coming, economist says

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> was trading in a narrow range against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Thursday, tracking a weak trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said the USD/INR pair is expected to remain range-bound as the dollar demand from foreign investors and oil companies has been matched by the supply from the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit moved in a narrow range. It opened at 83.57 against the American currency and touched 83.55 in initial trade, registering a rise of 3 paise from its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee closed at 83.58 against the American currency. Forex, equity markets were closed on Wednesday on account of Muharram. "Despite a weakening dollar and the rise of peer currencies like the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen to 7.26 and 155.36 respectively, the rupee has yet to find traction," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said: "It appears that the RBI is the key force behind the rupee's firm stance. Even amid a weakening dollar, robust fundamentals and significant flows, the rupee has shown no significant upward movement, as the RBI strategically absorbs inflows to bolster reserves." Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 103.80, marginally higher by 0.05 per cent. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.41 per cent to USD 85.43 per barrel. On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 219.58 points, or 0.27 per cent lower at 80,496.97 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 80.25 points, or 0.33 per cent, to 24,532.75 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,271.45 crore, according to exchange data. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday maintained India's GDP growth forecast at 7 per cent for the current financial year, citing that a rebound in agriculture is expected given above-normal monsoon projections. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/samsung-galaxy-m35-5g-with-6000mah-battery-launched-in-india-starting-at-16999/slidelist/111806447.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/samsung-galaxy-m35-5g-with-6000mah-battery-launched-in-india-starting-at-16999/slidelist/111806447.cms" target="_blank">Samsung Galaxy M35 5G with 6,000mAh battery launched in India starting at ₹19,999</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/oneplus-nord-4-vs-realme-gt-6t-which-mid-range-phone-should-you-buy-under-35000/slidelist/111803604.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/oneplus-nord-4-vs-realme-gt-6t-which-mid-range-phone-should-you-buy-under-35000/slidelist/111803604.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Nord 4 vs Realme GT 6T – which mid-range phone should you buy under ₹35,000?</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-added-3-45-million-subscribers-in-may-2024-while-vi-lost-nearly-a-million/articleshow/111800758.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-and-airtel-added-3-45-million-subscribers-in-may-2024-while-vi-lost-nearly-a-million/articleshow/111800758.cms" target="_blank">Reliance Jio and Airtel added 3.45 million subscribers in May 2024, while Vi lost nearly a million</a>

Rupee trades in narrow range against US dollar in early trade

The American Kennel Club's pedophile problem

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Slowing consumer spending could be a warning for the US economy. </li></ul>America's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-slowdown-recession-shopping-retail-spending-expectations-us-economy-outlook-2023-11">stimulus-fueled shopping spree</a> looks just about over — and lower spending could be a signal that a consumer-led downturn is on the horizon, economic experts say.Consumers are finally starting to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-consumer-spending-slowdown-growth-gdp-2024-5#:~:text=Consumers%20are%20finally%20slowing%20their,and%20a%20weakening%20job%20market.">rein in their spending habits</a>, which could weigh on the economy after a long period of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hate-spending-consumers-economic-sentiment-retail-sales-inflation-gdp-growth-2024-4">robust spending has propped up economic growth</a> over the past few years. Retail spending ticked 0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the last three months, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html">US Census data</a> shows.That adds to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David Rosenberg said recently."The weakness in the consumer can now be considered a 'trend' ... "The 'build in' for Q2 real retail sales is now negative, coming on the heels of a -4.4% annualized decline in Q1," he said in a note to clients this week. "Early signs of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-layoffs-job-market-fed-rate-cuts-economy-outlook-sternlicht-2024-6">consumer recession</a> finally coming to the fore."Shoppers aren't opening their wallets as easily as they deal with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-youre-still-spending-much-of-your-budget-on-food-2024-2">cumulative effects of inflation</a> and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-fed-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-goldman-sachs-2024-6">cooler job market</a>.A higher cost of living and sluggish hiring activity were cited as key reasons <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cost-of-living-what-is-middle-class-housing-market-2024-4">consumer sentiment has soured</a>, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer">a recent McKinsey survey</a>. Among those surveyed by the consulting firm, 55% said they felt "pessimistic" or had "mixed" feelings about the economy in the second quarter. "In general, consumer attitudes remain depressed relative to pre-pandemic — likely a function of lingering angst over inflation and interest rates," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a recent note. "Though the labor market appears strong on the surface, consumers' confidence around the labor outlook has begun to slip and suggests a potential pick up in the unemployment rate."Consumer finances, especially among lower- to middle-income households, are also looking worse than they did last year. The <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS">delinquency rate on credit card loans</a> ha risen to its highest level in 13 years, according to Federal Reserve data.76% of consumers, meanwhile, said they made a "trade-down" in the first quarter, such as by searching for cheaper prices or switching to a cheaper brand, the McKinsey survey found."The consumer is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-pomboy-consumer-spending-savings-debt-inflation-interest-rates-recession-2024-5">spent up and lent up</a>," Stephanie Pomboy, a veteran forecaster who was among the commentators who called the 2008 financial crisis, said in a recent interview with the "Thoughtful Money" podcast. "They're spending every dollar they have, and then some, just to keep up with the basic necessities."According to the McKinsey survey, 37% of consumers said they intended to reduce their spending on takeout meals, and 35% said they intended to spend less at sit-down restaurants. More than 30% of respondents said they planned on spending less money on international and domestic flights, while 32% said they would spend less on alcohol.Those spending cuts could deal a blow to GDP, which has already softened after a remarkably strong few quarters in 2023. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-economy-growth-2024-4">The economy grew 1.6%</a> in the first quarter of this year, compared to 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of last year. The US has 52% chance of slipping into recession by May of next year, according to projections from the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf">New York Fed</a>."A further slowing likely looms in Q3," Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics said of total consumption in a note this week. "The slowdown is genuine, and still developing."

Americans' spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Federal Reserve published its Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking this week.</li><li>The percentage of parents with children under 18 who felt "financially okay" declined.</li></ul>The financial well-being of American parents with young children is plummeting, highlighting how unaffordable childcare costs have become.The Federal Reserve published its annual <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm">Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking</a> on May 21. The survey, which collected answers from 11,000 people in October 2023, examines the economic well-being of US households and potential financial risks.While the report said people's overall financial well-being was "nearly unchanged" between 2022 and 2023, some groups "continued to experience financial stress at higher rates than others."That included parents with children under 18.<div type="image" title="Mother reading monthly budget while holding baby." height="2471" width="3264" msid="110443817" hostid="261" sizebytes="258060"></div>The percentage of parents with children under 18 who felt "okay financially" dropped from 69% in 2022 to 64% in 2023.The 2023 data point is a stark decline from 2021 when 75% of parents said they felt comfortable financially. Data from the Federal Reserve shows that parents haven't felt this financially insecure since 2015, when it recorded 65%.Comparatively, the percentage of adults who don't have children under 18 and feel "okay financially" hasn't dipped below 70% in the last eight years.The report doesn't give specific reasons for the growing financial concern, but the rising cost of childcare has been a national concern for years.The cost of childcare has skyrocketed in the United States, making it difficult for families to maneuver the current economy."Childcare costs can be significant for parents," the Federal Reserve report says. "The median monthly amount that parents using paid care paid for childcare was $800. For those who paid for 20 or more hours of childcare each week, the median cost was $1,100."Business Insider estimated that it could <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-kids-cost-raising-child-inflation-childcare-tax-exemptions-2024-1">cost parents nearly $26,000</a> a year to care for one child in 2024 — a 41.5% increase from 2016. A 2024 Bank of America analysis also found that the United States has the <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-childcare-costs-in-us-women-workforce-cheapest-countries-kids-2024-2">second most expensive childcare system</a> among developed countries.That analysis, which ranked New Zealand No. 1, found that the average couple with two children spent more than 30% of their combined wages on childcare.

American parents with young children say they haven't felt this financially insecure in nearly a decade. Here's why.

US President Joe <keyword id="60973" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="biden" source="Orion">Biden</keyword> has made an inspired choice by nominating <keyword id="44475" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ajay-banga" source="Orion">Ajay Banga</keyword> to the crucial position of the <keyword id="6354424" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="world-bank" source="Orion">World Bank</keyword> President, eminent Indian Americans said Thursday and described him as a global leader in technology, data, financial services and innovating for inclusion. Biden on Thursday nominated Indian-American business leader <keyword id="179217" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="banga" source="Orion">Banga</keyword>, 63, to lead the World Bank. If confirmed by the World Bank Board of Directors, Banga would be the first-ever Indian-American and Sikh-American to head either of the two top international financial institutions: the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. "In nominating him to this position, the President has made an inspired choice," Indiaspora founder and chairman M R Rangaswami said after the White House announcement. Especially relevant, given recent commentary around the Bank's mission and objectives, is that Banga brings a sharp focus on climate resiliency and environmental sustainability, said Rangaswami, a venture capitalist and philanthropist from Silicon Valley. Banga's deep expertise and several years of experience in the fields of financial inclusion, public-private partnerships, and climate finance make him a phenomenal leader to head the multilateral institution, US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) said. Notably, Banga had an instrumental role to play in the formation of the USISPF. He is a founding board member of USISPF. A former CEO of MasterCard, Banga is the Vice Chairman of General Atlantic. "<keyword id="800" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="ajay" source="Orion">Ajay</keyword> is a tireless believer in both the strength of US-India ties and strengthening the relationship even further. Ajay has been instrumental in setting up USISPF as a founding board member and a vital pillar in our success over the last five years," said Mukesh Aghi, president of USISPF. "Ajay's background in his early years in India, gives him a deep understanding of the emerging market world and bridging the gaps in gender parity and working towards poverty alleviation, issues at the core ethos of the Bank's mission," Aghi said. Banga's work with Citigroup, MasterCard, General Atlantic, and USISPF will allow for a seamless transition to mobilizing resources in public-private partnerships to tackle issues on climate, water resources, food security, and healthcare, the forum said. "It's another proud chapter in the success stories of the Indian-American diaspora, and I wish Ajay all the best for this new inning," said Aghi. Sanjeev Joshipura, Indiaspora's executive director said that Ajay Banga's global private sector background, during which he initiated and led Mastercard's financial inclusion efforts, will be of immense value in enhancing his effectiveness as World Bank President. "Moreover, as the first Indian-born nominee to this role, he brings a lived understanding of the challenges faced by developing nations. Large, complex and multifaceted problems, such as those the World Bank endeavours to resolve, are not new for Ajay to handle," he said. Keywords(15)

Biden made an inspired choice by nominating Banga says Indian Americans

<keyword id="5067243" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="american-express-banking-corp" source="Orion">American Express Banking Corp</keyword> (AEBC) on Monday announced the appointment of <keyword id="221202" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="sanjay-khanna" source="Orion">Sanjay Khanna</keyword> as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Country Manager of AEBC Corp <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>. <keyword id="1983" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="khanna" source="Orion">Khanna</keyword> heads the country executive team and is responsible for driving growth across the organisation's consumer and commercial businesses. In his new role, Khanna will also spearhead several strategic and business development initiatives for the company while steering smooth collaboration across its diverse businesses in India. His position will be key to advancing and strengthening the company's strategic focus in India. Speaking on the appointment, Rob McClean, Executive Vice President, International Card Services, <keyword id="91294" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="american-express" source="Orion">American Express</keyword>, said, "I am pleased to welcome <keyword id="419" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="sanjay" source="Orion">Sanjay</keyword> to this new role. With over 30 years of experience in the industry, Sanjay has exceptional credentials of delivering strong results coupled with a natural knack for leading from the front. We are confident that his commitment to excel in everything he does, his strong values and work ethics will further the brand's leadership in the Indian market." SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/rupee-rises-28-paise-to-79-25-against-us-dollar-in-early-trade/articleshow/94168701.cms">Rupee rises 28 paise to 79.25 against US dollar in early trade</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/mukul-rohatgi-to-return-as-attorney-general/articleshow/94166087.cms">Mukul Rohatgi to return as Attorney General</a>

Sanjay Khanna appointed CEO of American Express India

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A real estate boss expects at least 500 banks to fail or be taken over in the next two years.</li><li>Scott Rechler, CEO of RXR, said the maturing of commercial real estate loans would hit smaller lenders.</li></ul>Hundreds of American banks will collapse or be taken over by 2026, a top real estate executive predicted."I think there's going to be … 500 or more fewer banks in the US over the next two years," RXR CEO Scott Rechler said in a white paper <a target="_blank" href="https://fortune.com/2024/03/05/top-real-estate-mogul-500-fewer-banks-next-two-years-failures-consildation/">seen by Fortune</a> ahead of publication."I'm not saying they're all going to fail, but they're going to be forced into consolidation if they don't fail."The US has about 4,000 banks, per the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, meaning the loss of 500 would represent about a 12% decline.Rechler rooted his bleak forecast in the fact that more and more commercial real estate (CRE) loans will mature in the coming years, resulting in a "slow-moving train wreck" for smaller banks.Regional banks are key lenders to the CRE sector. It's been hit by higher interest rates that have depressed asset prices, the remote-working boom that's curbed demand for office space, and a credit crunch as lenders pull back.CRE developers also rely heavily on debt, and many face the prospect of having to refinance their loans at much higher rates this year and next.The regional banking industry has also been struggling in recent years. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-bank-failure-what-happened-bank-run-explained-2023-3">Silicon Valley Bank</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/signature-bank-shut-down-by-regulators-depositors-bailed-out-2023-3">Signature Bank</a>, and Silvergate Bank folded last spring after worries about their health spurred a wave of deposit withdrawals.Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-community-bank-nycb-shares-turmoil-ceo-internal-controls-crisis-2024-3">New York Community Bancorp's stock plunged</a> 60% in five days earlier this year after the lender set aside over $500 million to cover bad loans.The catalyst for the banking and CRE woes was the Federal Reserve hiking its benchmark interest rate from nearly zero at the start of 2022 to north of 5% by last summer to cool inflation.The sharp rise in rates slashed the value of regional banks' mortgage and fixed-income portfolios, stoking concerns about their stability among depositors.Rechler's warning of widespread bank closures contrasts with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-commerical-real-esate-crisis-soft-landing-economy-jpmorgan-2024-2">description</a> of the bank scandals to date as products of "idiosyncratic problems" at particular lenders.

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