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<ul class="summary-list"><li>During the first half of 2022, <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword> has intensified its outreach to Pacific Island nations.</li><li>China's inroads have alarmed the US and its allies in the region, which see Beijing as going for a strategic advantage.</li></ul>In the five months since one of President Joe Biden's top advisers warned that the Pacific was likely where the US could see a "strategic surprise" from China, Beijing has stepped up its overtures to the small but important islands of the region, prompting the US and its allies to scramble in response to growing Chinese influence.Kurt Campbell, the coordinator for <keyword id="12054992" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="indo-pacific" source="Orion">Indo-Pacific</keyword> on the National Security Council, told a think-tank audience in January that such a surprise — consisting of "basing or certain kinds of agreements or arrangements" — was a top concern "over the next year or two."That concern was given form in late March with the leak of a draft "<a href="https://twitter.com/AnnaPowles/status/1506845794728837120" target="_blank" rel="noopener">security cooperation</a>" agreement between China and the <keyword id="12279524" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="solomon-islands" source="Orion">Solomon Islands</keyword>, which said the Solomons could ask China to send police and military personnel "to assist in maintaining social order" and that China could, with permission, make "ship visits" and send "relevant forces" to protect Chinese interests — potentially giving China's military a toehold in the South Pacific.<div type="image" title="China navy ship Tonga" height="1080" width="1920" msid="92499546" hostid="261" sizebytes="194614"></div>In the Solomons, the news prompted fear that Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare could call on Chinese forces to repress <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-is-behind-unrest-solomon-islands-2021-11-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">future protests</a> against his government. Neighboring countries, including <keyword id="11897977" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="australia" source="Orion">Australia</keyword>, criticized the deal as a threat to the region's governance and security. US <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3000814/pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-holds-a-press-briefing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defense</a> and <a href="https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-april-18-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">diplomatic</a> officials cautioned that the deal's "broad nature" could lead to deployments of Chinese forces and "set a concerning precedent" for the region.Sogavare, who called the backlash "very insulting," said on April 20 — two days after the Biden administration announced a trip by Campbell and other officials to the region — that he had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/20/solomon-islands-china-security-agreement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed the deal</a> and done so "guided by our national interests." The final text has not been released but Sogavare and Chinese officials deny it will lead to a Chinese military base.The White House said there had been "substantial discussion" of the deal while US officials were in Honiara and that if there were moves toward a permanent military presence or "power-projection capabilities" in the Solomons the US "would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly."China has security-related agreements with Pacific island countries, largely focused on law enforcement — Australia and <keyword id="11895805" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="new-zealand" source="Orion">New Zealand</keyword> have similar relationships — but the deal with the Solomon Islands is seen as broader in scope and as coming at a time of higher geopolitical tension.In the weeks after the Solomons deal was signed, China's outreach appear to intensify, with reports it was pursuing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e2116b29-e58b-4fa0-8003-d28d18ddf06f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a similar deal</a> with <keyword id="14304181" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="kiribati" source="Orion">Kiribati</keyword> and its proposal of a sweeping deal with 10 Pacific countries: the Solomons, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, the Cook Islands, Niue, and the Federated States of Micronesia.<div type="image" title="China Wang Yi Fiji Pacific Islands meeting" height="1078" width="2000" msid="92499547" hostid="261" sizebytes="146520"></div>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-china-seeks-pacific-islands-policing-security-cooperation-document-2022-05-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">draft of the proposal</a> was circulated prior to a trip to the region by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in late May. It <a href="https://apnews.com/article/wang-yi-beijing-china-new-zealand-96f78c97071116055ebc3e7c216a0ef8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed</a> to "strengthen exchanges and cooperation in the fields of traditional and non traditional security," to expand law-enforcement cooperation, and to cooperate on cyber security and smart technology.Leaders were wary before and after discussing their meetings with Wang.In <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22037013/letter-from-h-e-david-w-panuelo-to-pacific-island-leaders-may-20-2022-signed.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a May 20 letter</a> to 21 regional leaders, Micronesian President David Panuelo called it "the single-most game-changing proposed agreement in the Pacific in any of our lifetimes" and "demonstrative of China's intention to shift Pacific allegiances in their direction.""The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focussed on power," Fiji President Frank Bainimarama <a href="https://twitter.com/FijiPM/status/1531180835356803072" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on May 30, adding that after an "excellent meeting" with Wang, Fiji sought "stronger Chinese commitment" to trade and environmental issues.The countries ultimately <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-30/pacific-nations-shelve-region-wide-china-deal/101109614" target="_blank" rel="noopener">didn't support</a> China's proposal. The US has cast that as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-asia-united-states-china-bangkok-de635c39e75c3b9f7603cff696421db0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reluctance</a> to engage with Beijing, but Wang <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/timor-leste-signs-four-cooperation-agreements-with-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed</a> other bilateral deals while in the region, and countries there with a strong interest in development assistance <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/samoa-pm-says-pacific-can-deal-with-own-security-issues-2022-06-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still see</a> economic opportunity in China.Leaders appeared "miffed" by Beijing's "abrupt" presentation of a pre-written agreement rather than discussing it first, said Charles Dunst, an expert on Asia at the Center for Strategic and <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">International</keyword> Studies. Opposition to this specific pact doesn't indicate "a wholesale or final rejection of cooperation with China," Dunst told Insider.<h2>Huge challenges and strategic importance</h2><div type="image" title="Solomon Islands map" height="1270" width="2158" msid="92499548" hostid="261" sizebytes="45104"></div>China's Pacific outreach is a years-long effort to build relations and influence in the region, filling a "strategic vacuum" created by "benign neglect" of longstanding security and economic ties by the US, Australia, and New Zealand, Anna Powles, an expert on Pacific security issues at New Zealand's Massey University, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-presence-in-pacific-means-for-taiwan-expert-explains-what-2019-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Insider in October 2019</a>.As <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/defense-officials-worried-about-chinese-military-presence-in-latin-america-2022-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in other regions</a>, China seeks access to natural resources, trade, and infrastructure projects, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-pacific-island-turns-australia-undersea-cable-after-spurning-china-2021-06-24/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internet cables</a> and ports and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-plans-to-upgrade-an-airstrip-strategically-located-in-kiribati-2021-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">airfields</a>.China has also sought to expand its diplomatic ties to further isolate Taiwan — in September 2019, both <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-loses-biggest-pacific-ally-as-solomons-embraces-china-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Solomons</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sees-kiribati-ties-soon-no-word-on-space-tracking-station-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kiribati</a> formally recognized Beijing — and to bolster its support in international forums.China also sees strategic value in the <keyword id="14304180" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pacific-islands" source="Orion">Pacific islands</keyword> as "<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-china-want-in-the-pacific-diplomatic-allies-and-strategic-footholds-184147" target="_blank" rel="noopener">footholds</a>" or "<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e2116b29-e58b-4fa0-8003-d28d18ddf06f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">perches</a>" from which to counter the US militarily. In 2018, Australian officials said Beijing had discussed <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-vanuatu-military-post-worrying-australia-us-2018-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">establishing a military presence with Vanuatu</a>, and there is concern about the military implications of other Chinese projects, including in <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/chinese-built-airport-next-door-australia-us-funded-navy-port" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Papua New Guinea</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-plans-to-upgrade-an-airstrip-strategically-located-in-kiribati-2021-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kiribati</a>.<div type="image" title="China Wang Yi Kiribati Taneti Maamau handshake Beijing" height="1333" width="2000" msid="92499549" hostid="261" sizebytes="95110"></div>The dynamic mirrors the Allied island-hopping campaign of World War II, which sought to roll back the Empire of Japan by recapturing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/growing-chinese-influence-in-guadalcanal-worrying-the-us-and-australia-2018-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strategically located Pacific islands</a>. The historical link was underscored in early May, when the US State Department <a href="https://www.state.gov/commemorating-the-80th-anniversary-of-the-battle-of-coral-sea/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commemorated</a> the 80th anniversary of the Battle of the Coral Sea, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battle-of-the-coral-sea-world-war-ii-anniversary-2018-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a clash in the waters</a> between Australia and the Solomons that is seen as a turning point in the war."We've certainly seen sources that show that China is really interested in thinking about the Japanese approach to challenging US dominance of the Pacific," Anne-Marie Brady, a professor and expert in Chinese foreign policy at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, said at <a href="https://www.hoover.org/events/us-needs-step-pacific-facing-chinas-military-challenge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Hoover Institution</a> event in May.Brady said that China's economic growth and military investment since the 1990s have given it the ability to begin countering the US military in the <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-islands-still-matter-asia-15121" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pacific island chains</a>, long been seen as defensive lines against the Soviets and now the Chinese.New Zealand said in 2021 that a Chinese base "in the Pacific would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region," Brady said at the May event.Australia's chief of joint operations, Lt. Gen. Greg Bilton, <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/transcripts/press-conference-abigail-bradshaw-csc-head-acsc-and-lieutenant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in March that Chinese navy operations in the Solomons would "change the calculus" and prompt Australia's military to change its day-to-day operations, patrolling patterns, and maritime awareness activities.<div type="image" title="Australia HMAS Canberra soldiers Chinook Tonga" height="1344" width="2000" msid="92499550" hostid="261" sizebytes="153450"></div>In addition to providing better awareness of activity in the region, a more consistent Chinese military presence in the Solomons is "bound to have a political effect on the thinking of leaders in those island areas about the importance of maintaining good relations with China," Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, told Insider in April.The US and its allies have mounted a flurry of efforts to counter China's inroads. The US said in February that it would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-planning-open-embassy-solomon-islands-official-2022-02-12/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reopen its embassy</a> in the Solomons, which was closed in the 1990s. Australia's foreign minister has made multiple trips to the region in since taking office in June.US military leaders have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pacific-islands-are-critical-geostrategic-ground-top-commander-says-2021-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">repeatedly underscored</a> the importance of the Pacific Islands to their operations, particularly has they try to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-studying-different-austere-bases-to-fight-in-pacific-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disperse their forces</a> to counter the growing reach of China's arsenal. The US has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-counter-china-influence-us-names-envoy-lead-pacific-island-talks-2022-03-22/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stepped up</a> efforts to renegotiate the Compacts of Free Association, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-looks-to-pacific-islands-for-presence-amid-china-competition-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its unique defense agreements with Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands</a> that expire in 2023 and 2024, holding an in-person <a href="https://twitter.com/CleoPaskal/status/1537591557037010945" target="_blank" rel="noopener">meeting</a> with the Marshall Islands in mid-June.Time and distance has kept the US Navy from maintaining a significant presence among the Pacific Islands but it is looking to strengthen and expand its ties there, with a particular eye toward logistics support, according to Vice Adm. William Merz, who commanded the Japan-based 7th Fleet from 2019 to 2021."The rising tensions, especially in that region, has certainly created a whole new level of enthusiasm for more and more players to participate with the US, and we're trying to take advantage of that," Merz said at a defense industry conference in February 2022.<div type="image" title="US sailors Tinian harbor" height="1333" width="2000" msid="92499552" hostid="261" sizebytes="392498"></div>US commanders say Pacific islanders are interested in greater collaboration, in part out of concern about China, but the region's leaders also stress a desire to avoid conflict and to focus on pressing issues, specifically the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/76-years-after-wwii-battle-tarawa-marines-still-being-identified-2019-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">existential threat of climate change</a>."In Fiji, we are not threatened by geopolitical competition," Fiji's defense minister said at the Shangri-La Dialogue in June. "In our Blue Pacific continent, machine guns, fighter jets, grey ships, and green battalions are not our primary security concern. The single greatest threat to our very existence is climate change."The US appears to be taking "tangible steps" in the region, Dunst said in early June, pointing to a need for more non-military engagement, better alignment with Australia and New Zealand, and to make clear the US's long-term interest in the region outside the context of US-China competition.On June 24, the US, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and Japan <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/24/statement-by-australia-japan-new-zealand-the-united-kingdom-and-the-united-states-on-the-establishment-of-the-partners-in-the-blue-pacific-pbp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative to support the region "according to principles of Pacific regionalism, sovereignty, transparency, accountability, and most of all, led and guided by the Pacific Islands."In a speech prior to the announcement, Kurt Campbell underscored the US's historical ties to the Pacific and stressed the importance engaging with and supporting those countries and their region, vowing more high-level US outreach and delivery of "public goods.""There is a general recognition that this is a region of not only moral responsibility and huge challenges — environmental and the like — but it's of strategic importance," Campbell said. "I think it will be important for us to demonstrate that as we go forward."

The US and its allies are scrambling to respond to China's intensifying moves in the heart of the Pacific

<ul class="summary-list"><li>During the first half of 2022, <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword> has intensified its outreach to Pacific Island nations.</li><li>China's inroads have alarmed the US and its allies in the region, which see Beijing as going for a strategic advantage.</li></ul>In the five months since one of President Joe Biden's top advisers warned that the Pacific was likely where the US could see a "strategic surprise" from China, Beijing has stepped up its overtures to the small but important islands of the region, prompting the US and its allies to scramble in response to growing Chinese influence.Kurt Campbell, the coordinator for <keyword id="12054992" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="indo-pacific" source="Orion">Indo-Pacific</keyword> on the National Security Council, told a think-tank audience in January that such a surprise — consisting of "basing or certain kinds of agreements or arrangements" — was a top concern "over the next year or two."That concern was given form in late March with the leak of a draft "<a href="https://twitter.com/AnnaPowles/status/1506845794728837120" target="_blank" rel="noopener">security cooperation</a>" agreement between China and the <keyword id="12279524" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="solomon-islands" source="Orion">Solomon Islands</keyword>, which said the Solomons could ask China to send police and military personnel "to assist in maintaining social order" and that China could, with permission, make "ship visits" and send "relevant forces" to protect Chinese interests — potentially giving China's military a toehold in the South Pacific.<div type="image" title="China navy ship Tonga" height="1080" width="1920" msid="92501094" hostid="261" sizebytes="194614"></div>In the Solomons, the news prompted fear that Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare could call on Chinese forces to repress <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-is-behind-unrest-solomon-islands-2021-11-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">future protests</a> against his government. Neighboring countries, including <keyword id="11897977" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="australia" source="Orion">Australia</keyword>, criticized the deal as a threat to the region's governance and security. US <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3000814/pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-holds-a-press-briefing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">defense</a> and <a href="https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-april-18-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">diplomatic</a> officials cautioned that the deal's "broad nature" could lead to deployments of Chinese forces and "set a concerning precedent" for the region.Sogavare, who called the backlash "very insulting," said on April 20 — two days after the Biden administration announced a trip by Campbell and other officials to the region — that he had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/20/solomon-islands-china-security-agreement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed the deal</a> and done so "guided by our national interests." The final text has not been released but Sogavare and Chinese officials deny it will lead to a Chinese military base.The White House said there had been "substantial discussion" of the deal while US officials were in Honiara and that if there were moves toward a permanent military presence or "power-projection capabilities" in the Solomons the US "would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly."China has security-related agreements with Pacific island countries, largely focused on law enforcement — Australia and <keyword id="11895805" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="new-zealand" source="Orion">New Zealand</keyword> have similar relationships — but the deal with the Solomon Islands is seen as broader in scope and as coming at a time of higher geopolitical tension.In the weeks after the Solomons deal was signed, China's outreach appear to intensify, with reports it was pursuing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e2116b29-e58b-4fa0-8003-d28d18ddf06f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a similar deal</a> with <keyword id="14304181" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="kiribati" source="Orion">Kiribati</keyword> and its proposal of a sweeping deal with 10 Pacific countries: the Solomons, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, the Cook Islands, Niue, and the Federated States of Micronesia.<div type="image" title="China Wang Yi Fiji Pacific Islands meeting" height="1078" width="2000" msid="92501096" hostid="261" sizebytes="146520"></div>A <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-china-seeks-pacific-islands-policing-security-cooperation-document-2022-05-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">draft of the proposal</a> was circulated prior to a trip to the region by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in late May. It <a href="https://apnews.com/article/wang-yi-beijing-china-new-zealand-96f78c97071116055ebc3e7c216a0ef8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed</a> to "strengthen exchanges and cooperation in the fields of traditional and non traditional security," to expand law-enforcement cooperation, and to cooperate on cyber security and smart technology.Leaders were wary before and after discussing their meetings with Wang.In <a href="https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/22037013/letter-from-h-e-david-w-panuelo-to-pacific-island-leaders-may-20-2022-signed.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a May 20 letter</a> to 21 regional leaders, Micronesian President David Panuelo called it "the single-most game-changing proposed agreement in the Pacific in any of our lifetimes" and "demonstrative of China's intention to shift Pacific allegiances in their direction.""The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focussed on power," Fiji President Frank Bainimarama <a href="https://twitter.com/FijiPM/status/1531180835356803072" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> on May 30, adding that after an "excellent meeting" with Wang, Fiji sought "stronger Chinese commitment" to trade and environmental issues.The countries ultimately <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-30/pacific-nations-shelve-region-wide-china-deal/101109614" target="_blank" rel="noopener">didn't support</a> China's proposal. The US has cast that as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-asia-united-states-china-bangkok-de635c39e75c3b9f7603cff696421db0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reluctance</a> to engage with Beijing, but Wang <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/timor-leste-signs-four-cooperation-agreements-with-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed</a> other bilateral deals while in the region, and countries there with a strong interest in development assistance <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/samoa-pm-says-pacific-can-deal-with-own-security-issues-2022-06-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">still see</a> economic opportunity in China.Leaders appeared "miffed" by Beijing's "abrupt" presentation of a pre-written agreement rather than discussing it first, said Charles Dunst, an expert on Asia at the Center for Strategic and <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">International</keyword> Studies. Opposition to this specific pact doesn't indicate "a wholesale or final rejection of cooperation with China," Dunst told Insider.<h2>Huge challenges and strategic importance</h2><div type="image" title="Solomon Islands map" height="1270" width="2158" msid="92501098" hostid="261" sizebytes="45104"></div>China's Pacific outreach is a years-long effort to build relations and influence in the region, filling a "strategic vacuum" created by "benign neglect" of longstanding security and economic ties by the US, Australia, and New Zealand, Anna Powles, an expert on Pacific security issues at New Zealand's Massey University, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-presence-in-pacific-means-for-taiwan-expert-explains-what-2019-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Insider in October 2019</a>.As <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/defense-officials-worried-about-chinese-military-presence-in-latin-america-2022-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in other regions</a>, China seeks access to natural resources, trade, and infrastructure projects, such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-pacific-island-turns-australia-undersea-cable-after-spurning-china-2021-06-24/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">internet cables</a> and ports and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-plans-to-upgrade-an-airstrip-strategically-located-in-kiribati-2021-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">airfields</a>.China has also sought to expand its diplomatic ties to further isolate Taiwan — in September 2019, both <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-loses-biggest-pacific-ally-as-solomons-embraces-china-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Solomons</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sees-kiribati-ties-soon-no-word-on-space-tracking-station-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kiribati</a> formally recognized Beijing — and to bolster its support in international forums.China also sees strategic value in the <keyword id="14304180" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="pacific-islands" source="Orion">Pacific islands</keyword> as "<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-china-want-in-the-pacific-diplomatic-allies-and-strategic-footholds-184147" target="_blank" rel="noopener">footholds</a>" or "<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e2116b29-e58b-4fa0-8003-d28d18ddf06f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">perches</a>" from which to counter the US militarily. In 2018, Australian officials said Beijing had discussed <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-vanuatu-military-post-worrying-australia-us-2018-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">establishing a military presence with Vanuatu</a>, and there is concern about the military implications of other Chinese projects, including in <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/chinese-built-airport-next-door-australia-us-funded-navy-port" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Papua New Guinea</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-plans-to-upgrade-an-airstrip-strategically-located-in-kiribati-2021-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kiribati</a>.<div type="image" title="China Wang Yi Kiribati Taneti Maamau handshake Beijing" height="1333" width="2000" msid="92501099" hostid="261" sizebytes="95110"></div>The dynamic mirrors the Allied island-hopping campaign of World War II, which sought to roll back the Empire of Japan by recapturing <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/growing-chinese-influence-in-guadalcanal-worrying-the-us-and-australia-2018-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strategically located Pacific islands</a>. The historical link was underscored in early May, when the US State Department <a href="https://www.state.gov/commemorating-the-80th-anniversary-of-the-battle-of-coral-sea/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">commemorated</a> the 80th anniversary of the Battle of the Coral Sea, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battle-of-the-coral-sea-world-war-ii-anniversary-2018-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a clash in the waters</a> between Australia and the Solomons that is seen as a turning point in the war."We've certainly seen sources that show that China is really interested in thinking about the Japanese approach to challenging US dominance of the Pacific," Anne-Marie Brady, a professor and expert in Chinese foreign policy at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, said at <a href="https://www.hoover.org/events/us-needs-step-pacific-facing-chinas-military-challenge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Hoover Institution</a> event in May.Brady said that China's economic growth and military investment since the 1990s have given it the ability to begin countering the US military in the <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-islands-still-matter-asia-15121" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pacific island chains</a>, long been seen as defensive lines against the Soviets and now the Chinese.New Zealand said in 2021 that a Chinese base "in the Pacific would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region," Brady said at the May event.Australia's chief of joint operations, Lt. Gen. Greg Bilton, <a href="https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/transcripts/press-conference-abigail-bradshaw-csc-head-acsc-and-lieutenant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in March that Chinese navy operations in the Solomons would "change the calculus" and prompt Australia's military to change its day-to-day operations, patrolling patterns, and maritime awareness activities.<div type="image" title="Australia HMAS Canberra soldiers Chinook Tonga" height="1344" width="2000" msid="92501101" hostid="261" sizebytes="153450"></div>In addition to providing better awareness of activity in the region, a more consistent Chinese military presence in the Solomons is "bound to have a political effect on the thinking of leaders in those island areas about the importance of maintaining good relations with China," Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, told Insider in April.The US and its allies have mounted a flurry of efforts to counter China's inroads. The US said in February that it would <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-planning-open-embassy-solomon-islands-official-2022-02-12/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reopen its embassy</a> in the Solomons, which was closed in the 1990s. Australia's foreign minister has made multiple trips to the region in since taking office in June.US military leaders have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pacific-islands-are-critical-geostrategic-ground-top-commander-says-2021-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">repeatedly underscored</a> the importance of the Pacific Islands to their operations, particularly has they try to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-studying-different-austere-bases-to-fight-in-pacific-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disperse their forces</a> to counter the growing reach of China's arsenal. The US has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-counter-china-influence-us-names-envoy-lead-pacific-island-talks-2022-03-22/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stepped up</a> efforts to renegotiate the Compacts of Free Association, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-looks-to-pacific-islands-for-presence-amid-china-competition-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its unique defense agreements with Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands</a> that expire in 2023 and 2024, holding an in-person <a href="https://twitter.com/CleoPaskal/status/1537591557037010945" target="_blank" rel="noopener">meeting</a> with the Marshall Islands in mid-June.Time and distance has kept the US Navy from maintaining a significant presence among the Pacific Islands but it is looking to strengthen and expand its ties there, with a particular eye toward logistics support, according to Vice Adm. William Merz, who commanded the Japan-based 7th Fleet from 2019 to 2021."The rising tensions, especially in that region, has certainly created a whole new level of enthusiasm for more and more players to participate with the US, and we're trying to take advantage of that," Merz said at a defense industry conference in February 2022.<div type="image" title="US sailors Tinian harbor" height="1333" width="2000" msid="92501103" hostid="261" sizebytes="392498"></div>US commanders say Pacific islanders are interested in greater collaboration, in part out of concern about China, but the region's leaders also stress a desire to avoid conflict and to focus on pressing issues, specifically the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/76-years-after-wwii-battle-tarawa-marines-still-being-identified-2019-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">existential threat of climate change</a>."In Fiji, we are not threatened by geopolitical competition," Fiji's defense minister said at the Shangri-La Dialogue in June. "In our Blue Pacific continent, machine guns, fighter jets, grey ships, and green battalions are not our primary security concern. The single greatest threat to our very existence is climate change."The US appears to be taking "tangible steps" in the region, Dunst said in early June, pointing to a need for more non-military engagement, better alignment with Australia and New Zealand, and to make clear the US's long-term interest in the region outside the context of US-China competition.On June 24, the US, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and Japan <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/24/statement-by-australia-japan-new-zealand-the-united-kingdom-and-the-united-states-on-the-establishment-of-the-partners-in-the-blue-pacific-pbp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative to support the region "according to principles of Pacific regionalism, sovereignty, transparency, accountability, and most of all, led and guided by the Pacific Islands."In a speech prior to the announcement, Kurt Campbell underscored the US's historical ties to the Pacific and stressed the importance engaging with and supporting those countries and their region, vowing more high-level US outreach and delivery of "public goods.""There is a general recognition that this is a region of not only moral responsibility and huge challenges — environmental and the like — but it's of strategic importance," Campbell said. "I think it will be important for us to demonstrate that as we go forward."

<ul class="summary-list"><li> The US has led a robust international response to support <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> following <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>'s brutal invasion.</li><li>But US leaders should not fixate on punishing Russia in Europe at the expense of prudent foreign policy in Asia.</li></ul>The Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore recently wrapped up. As a forum to discuss Asian security issues, it was curious that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/14/shangri-la-dialogue-asia-china-ukraine-zelensky-singapore-taiwan-japan/">addressed</a> attendees.Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine has rightfully dominated global attention. But as the Biden administration surges US troops to Europe, now <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/20/politics/us-troops-in-europe/index.html">numbering 100,000</a>, and provides upward of <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-05-19/senate-passes-40-billion-in-aid-to-ukraine-after-week-long-delay">$54 billion</a> in aid to Ukraine, it risks making a strategic foreign-policy blunder — prioritizing Europe over Asia.Regardless of how much the United States sympathizes with Ukraine's tragic circumstances; even the mighty United States must make tradeoffs. With a myriad of domestic issues ranging from a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/04/20/how-the-american-middle-class-has-changed-in-the-past-five-decades/#:~:text=The%20middle%20class%2C%20once%20the,Center%20analysis%20of%20government%20data.">shrinking middle class</a>, record inflation, a stagnating economy, and the ongoing Covid 19 pandemic, US policymakers cannot afford to pursue the status-quo in both Europe and Asia.With 4.6 billion people (60% of the world's population), and an economy that is set to account for 50% of global GDP by 2040, Asia will be the key region of the 21st century. <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>, now the world's largest economy when adjusted for purchasing power parity, seeks to throw its weight behind a more assertive foreign policy in pursuit of its own national interests.<div type="image" title="Navy destroyer Mustin China aircraft carrier" height="1430" width="2000" msid="92416579" hostid="261"></div>As the only near-peer power capable of challenging the United States, Beijing will utilize all three levers of power — economic, diplomatic, and military — in an attempt to expel US influence from its backyard. This dynamic will fundamentally shape the coming decades.Washington should not become so fixated on punishing Russia in eastern Europe at the expense of pursuing a prudent foreign policy in Asia that creates favorable conditions for long-term <a href="https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/responsibly-competing-with-china">responsible competition</a> with China.The United States should leverage its wealthy and capable allies in Europe to do more of the heavy lifting when it comes to balancing against the threat of Russia.NATO's 28 European members enjoy a <a href="https://www.defensepriorities.org/analysis/ukraine-russia-war">combined GDP</a> more than 10 times that of Russia's and in 2020 collectively spent $302 billion on defense compared to Russia's $62 billion. China on the other hand is a leading economic power and maintains the second highest <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Geopolitical-powder-keg-Asia-jacks-up-global-military-spending">defense</a> budget globally, spending $293 billion in 2021.Other regional powers such as India and Japan have sizable but lagging defense budgets at $76.7 billion and $54.1 billion, respectively. While the United States should encourage its allies in Asia to invest more in their own defense <a href="https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/deterring-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-upholding-the-status-quo">to deter</a> potential Chinese aggression, such a power imbalance points to China, not Russia, being the more viable threat to US power.The United States should prudently utilize the current window of time, where it still enjoys a favorable balance of power vis-à-vis China, to establish guiderails that mitigate the potential for tensions to transform into direct conflict.Such efforts would include reaching a mutual understanding of red lines, more robust mechanisms to avoid naval and air incidents, regular leadership summits, crisis management hotlines, arms control agreements, and shared rules to reduce the risk of escalation in the cyber, artificial intelligence, space, and nuclear domains.<div type="image" title="Taiwan China amphibious landing military exercise" height="1634" width="2500" msid="92416581" hostid="261"></div>During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union pursued many of these initiatives to help deescalate tensions. However, détente only occurred after periods of immense insecurity — particularly following the Cuban Missile Crisis — often considered the closest the world came to nuclear catastrophe.To that end, Washington would be wise to reflect on the lessons of the Cold War when formulating its foreign policy in regard to China today. <keyword id="12048018" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="taiwan" source="Orion">Taiwan</keyword> is the most dangerous flashpoint in the region with China claiming its reunification with the mainland is only a matter of time.During his time in office, President Joe Biden has on <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-walks-back-taiwan-comments-china-military-three-times" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three separate occasions</a> erroneously claimed the United States has an obligation to come to Taiwan's defense in the case of a Chinese invasion. White House officials quickly walked back the President's comments each time, but his careless rhetoric only increases regional tensions.While the United States does not want to see China subjugate Taiwan, the reality is that an island 80 miles off the coast of China does not warrant sacrificing the lives of American service members or risking a very real possibility of nuclear escalation. Rhetoric to the contrary does little but diminish US credibility to defend its real core strategic interests, including actual treaty allies in Asia.Responsible competition with China will require clear-eyed realism, astute statecraft, and an acceptance that Asia has supplanted Europe in terms of geopolitical importance. Whether US leaders like it or not, the United States and China will need to learn how to live with one another. With both countries maintaining <a href="https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/raising-the-minimum-explaining-chinas-nuclear-buildup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sizable nuclear arsenals</a>, the stakes are too high for anything less.Sascha Glaeser is a research associate at <keyword id="11985140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="defense-priorities" source="Orion">Defense Priorities</keyword>. He focuses on US grand strategy, international security, and transatlantic relations. He holds a master of international public affairs and a bachelor's in international studies from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Asia is more important to the US than Europe, and US leaders need to start acting like it

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US military has turned more of its attention to the Pacific amid competition with <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>.</li><li>The Coast Guard has been a key player, as it can conduct missions that the other services aren't equipped or allowed to do.</li></ul>Competition with China has drawn more Pentagon resources to the Pacific, but the most visible US military presence there may be the branch that is outside of the Defense Department.The ships and personnel of the <keyword id="12094618" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="us-coast-guard" source="Orion">US Coast Guard</keyword>, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, are spending more time in the region conducting missions for which other branches aren't well suited, balancing that increasing demand with a lengthy list of other responsibilities."What we do, it's not big in numbers, but it's, I think, pretty significant in contribution. We get access. We can go places," Adm. Karl Schultz, commandant of the Coast Guard, said at a Navy League event in December.Schultz singled out the cutter Munro, which in October <a href="https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCG/bulletins/2f86024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">returned</a> from a 102-day <keyword id="12054992" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="indo-pacific" source="Orion">Indo-Pacific</keyword> deployment. Munro trained with allies and partners in the East and South China Seas and "exercised" a memorandum of understanding with Taiwan, Schultz said. Munro also sailed through the Taiwan Strait, which, like past transits, was <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1232677.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">condemned</a> by China."The Chinese [are] pretty excited when the Coast Guard's over there training with the Taiwanese," Schultz said last month. "These are places that move the needle a little bit."<h2>'Greeted with open arms'</h2><div type="image" title="Coast Guard cutter Munro in Philippine Sea" height="1333" width="2000" msid="88843506" hostid="261"></div>The Coast Guard has a longstanding presence in the Pacific. Activities Far East, one of only two overseas Coast Guard commands, was set up in Japan 70 years ago. Its ships have patrolled around US territories and other Pacific countries for much longer."The US Coast Guard has more than 150 years of service in the Pacific region. We're very proud of that," Vice Adm. Michael McAllister, commander of the Coast Guard's Pacific Area, said a press conference in September.The Navy has led recent US military efforts to counter China in the region, and its Japan-based 7th Fleet had tactical control of Munro during its deployment.Navy officials worked with the Coast Guard and others to plan the cutter's schedule and "incorporate deliberate operational goals, priorities, and objectives," Lt. Mark Langford, 7th Fleet spokesperson, told Insider in September."[The] Coast Guard brings unique capabilities and skill sets to the 7th Fleet operating area, which complement US Navy capabilities," Langford said.<div type="image" title="Coast Guard cutter in Guam" height="1250" width="2000" msid="88843509" hostid="261"></div>Among those unique capabilities are law-enforcement authorities and expertise in search and rescue, marine environmental response, and humanitarian assistance."Frankly, those are different missions than the US Navy or the military services here in the United States deal with," McAllister said in September, calling the Coast Guard "complementary" to US Navy's defense capability.That expertise has renewed relevance amid tensions with China. Illegal fishing is a major concern, especially <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/illegal-fishing-is-national-security-threat-us-military-officials-say-2020-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the activity of China's oversea fishing fleet</a>, and the Coast Guard is increasing its efforts to help countries police their waters. In December 2020, it helped Palau <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/15/pacific-nation-of-palau-detains-chinese-fishing-crew" target="_blank" rel="noopener">apprehend</a> a Chinese vessel fishing illegally in Palau's exclusive economic zone.The Coast Guard also based three new cutters in Guam this summer and renamed its outpost there. The new name, Coast Guard Forces Micronesia Sector Guam, is meant to "showcase that they are our forward-deployed, forward-present operating node," Vice Adm. Linda Fagan, the service's vice commandant, said in September.The outreach isn't limited to small island countries. Munro trained with the Philippines and Indonesia and conducted a <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3147199/japans-supplies-us-coast-guard-aimed-testing-beijing-observers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first-of-its-kind</a> at-sea replenishment with Japan's military.<div type="image" title="Coast Guard cutter Munro with Indonesia ship" height="1125" width="2000" msid="88843511" hostid="261"></div>The service has also given retired cutters to Vietnam, and that kind of engagement has been "tremendously important" for improving US-Vietnam relations, Ted Osius, US ambassador to Vietnam from 2014 to 2017, <a href="https://www.csis.org/events/nothing-impossible-americas-reconciliation-vietnam" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> this summer.Current and former officials tout the Coast Guard, in its responsibilities and its conduct, as a model for the region and as a sought-after partner because of it."When we show up, we're greeted with open arms because the mission set is so critical to these countries that we want to be good partners to," Randall Schriver, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs during the Trump administration, <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/20/ocean-nations-indo-pacific-islands-dialogue-event-7680" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in September."At the end of the day, we try to model a type of behavior that keeps commerce open, peacefully resolves disputes, protects valuable resources, and counters illicit activities," McAllister said, noting that forces in the region often give their ships a stripe that is "very similar to the Coast Guard stripe."<h2>'An issue of resources'</h2><div type="image" title="Coast Guard Cutter Kimball board in Philippine Sea" height="1500" width="2000" msid="88843512" hostid="261"></div>There has never been more demand on the Coast Guard for domestic and <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">international</keyword> missions, Schultz said last month, and that looks set to grow under the Biden administration."The Coast Guard is an extraordinarily important tool, one that we are looking to see if there's ways of expanding the presence and the level of engagement, because the issues that really matter to countries in the Pacific in many cases are much more aligned" with the Coast Guard's missions, Edgard Kagan, senior director for East Asia and Oceania on the National Security Council, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wurmn_4cm2s&amp;ab_channel=CarnegieEndowment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in September.The service has limited capacity to meet that demand, however."How do you stretch an organization of 42,000 active-duty [personnel] across the globe? You do it in chunks. You don't do it in persistent presence," Schultz said in December.Replicating the two back-to-back five-month cutter deployments to the Indo-Pacific in 2019 is "probably the stretch goal," Shultz said, adding that a more likely commitment is having a cutter in the region for 100 to 150 days a year.That rising demand has prompted concern about whether the Coast Guard is receiving enough resources to support what it's being asked to do.<div type="image" title="Coast Guard cutter Alex Haley boarding team fishing vessel" height="1333" width="2000" msid="88843514" hostid="261"></div>The service is undertaking what Schultz called the "largest recapitalization program since the Second World War" to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/after-crippling-fire-coast-guard-icebreaker-healy-rare-trip-north-2021-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">replace aging ships</a>, but its operating budget was flat during the 2010s, and it didn't benefit from recent boosts to the defense budget."If we're going to get serious with the Coast Guard as a tool for international engagement, we have to invest a lot more so that that tool is available," Schriver said.The Coast Guard's defense readiness mission in support of the Defense Department, one of its <a href="https://www.uscg.mil/About/Missions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">11 statutory missions</a>, is <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-104741" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a small part</a> of the Coast Guard's operations, but lawmakers are scrunitizing how much support the service is being asked to give the Pentagon."I remain concerned that the Coast Guard is being asked to support the Department of Defense in ways that are outside of its defense-readiness mission and stretching its already thin resources even thinner," Rep. Anthony Brown of Maryland told Insider in a statement.Schultz said the service has made headway on its funding needs in recent years but has also called for sustained budget growth of 3% to 5% a year in order to "deliver the Coast Guard the nation needs."Brown, who serves on Congressional committees that oversee the Navy and Coast Guard, said lawmakers and policymakers "need to strike the right balance" to position the Coast Guard to be effective."This is an issue of resources, and I'll continue to fight for the funding our services need. But that funding must also be managed correctly and strategically," Brown said.

On the frontline against China, the US Coast Guard is taking on missions the US Navy can't do

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Secretary of State <keyword id="11976255" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="antony-blinken" source="Orion">Antony Blinken</keyword> traveled to <keyword id="11906677" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="southeast-asia" source="Orion">Southeast Asia</keyword> this week to boost US ties there.</li><li>The US has sought to strengthen its relations with the region amid increasing competition with <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>.</li></ul>Secretary of State Antony Blinken cut short a major trip to Southeast <keyword id="11902482" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="asia" source="Orion">Asia</keyword> on Wednesday, returning from his first visit there as secretary after two of three planned stops.A COVID-19 case among journalists traveling with Blinken ended the latest effort by US officials to strengthen ties and demonstrate commitment to a region that's strategically located and home to some of the world's fastest-growing economies.In comments in <keyword id="11955096" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="indonesia" source="Orion">Indonesia</keyword>, including a key policy <a href="https://www.state.gov/a-free-and-open-indo-pacific/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">speech</a>, and in Malaysia, Blinken <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-press-availability-8/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">emphasized</a> the US desire to work with those countries and their neighbors "to advance our vision for a free, open, interconnected, prosperous, resilient, and secure <keyword id="12054992" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="indo-pacific" source="Orion">Indo-Pacific</keyword>."Blinken's trip, like those of Vice President Kamala Harris and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/despite-china-tensions-countries-dont-see-better-offer-from-us-2021-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earlier this year</a>, comes as the US seeks <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gains-china-loses-power-but-domestic-problems-remain-2021-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to counter Beijing's increasing influence across the Indo-Pacific</a>. In addition to visits, US officials, including President Joe Biden, have met virtually with Southeast Asian leaders and organizations.<div type="image" title="Antony Blinken in Malaysia" height="2336" width="3500" msid="88308279" hostid="261"></div>US officials stress that they are not asking countries to choose the US over China but rather to work together on common goals."I think there's tremendous convergence among our partners in the region ... in terms of the vision we have for the kind of region we want to live in," Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told reporters before Blinken's trip, describing that vision as "a region that is free of coercion, a region where large countries do not bully the weak, and where all countries play by the rules."In his speech in Jakarta, Blinken said China's behavior was antithetical to that vision."That's why there is so much concern, from Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia and from the Mekong River to the Pacific Islands, about Beijing's aggressive actions," Blinken said. "Countries across the region want this behavior to change."Blinken laid out a number of priorities for US engagement, including deepening economic ties and expanding cooperation on public health, education, and climate change, among other issues. Bolstering Indo-Pacific security is also a pillar of the US approach."Threats are evolving. Our security approach has to evolve with them," Blinken said. "We'll adopt a strategy that more closely weaves together all our instruments of national power — diplomacy, military, intelligence — with those of our allies and our partners."<div type="image" title="littoral combat ship USS Jackson during US Indonesia navy exercise" height="1333" width="2000" msid="88308281" hostid="261"></div>Maritime security has been an area of interest for the US and its partners in the region. Many of those countries dispute China's claims in the <keyword id="12063094" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="south-china-sea" source="Orion">South China Sea</keyword>, which has led to <a href="https://fulcrum.sg/indonesia-and-chinas-maritime-grey-zone-strategy-in-denial/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confrontations</a> with Beijing, and are near heavily trafficked waterways connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans.In addition to exercises, the US military has trained and equipped its counterparts in the region to improve their ability to monitor and police their waterways.Southeast Asia is "an important region," and countries there "are feeling the pressure from China," chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2868536/pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-holds-an-off-camera-press-briefing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> prior to Blinken's trip.While in Indonesia, Blinken <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-press-availability-8/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed</a> memoranda of understanding — one for maritime cooperation, including joint naval exercises — "to bring our countries' work together to another level."Blinken's Malaysian counterpart also <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-malaysian-foreign-minister-saifuddin-abdullah-at-a-joint-press-availability/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">praised</a> US military support, including providing drones to the Royal Malaysian Navy and "continued support in the development of our maritime enforcement capacity."<h2>Choosing without being asked</h2><div type="image" title="US and Malaysian Navy divers during exercise" height="750" width="1000" msid="88308282" hostid="261"></div>While China has frustrated many in Southeast Asia, experts say the region doesn't necessarily share US views of China or see partnering closely with Washington as the way to respond."People throughout the region are definitely fearful of and frustrated with China's military and diplomatic aggressiveness," said Charles Dunst, an expert on Southeast Asia at the Center for Strategic and <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">International</keyword> Studies. "But still, they're not turning around and saying, 'well, China is bad, so the US is good and we're all pro-America now.'"The US has also yet to articulate its economic approach to the region, which is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/despite-china-tensions-countries-dont-see-better-offer-from-us-2021-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">seen as a major shortcoming in its engagement</a>. If the goal is to counter China, Dunst said, "you have to have real, aggressive economic plans that actually respond to what local populations need."Evan Laksmana, a senior research fellow with the Center on Asia and Globalisation at the National University of Singapore, said Southeast Asian countries have "no uniform view or consensus" on China and the US."Each country has their own strategic interests and domestic political considerations, creating different potential divergence or convergence with the US agenda," Laksmana told Insider.<div type="image" title="Joko Widodo and Antony Blinken in Jakarta Indonesia" height="1333" width="2000" msid="88308283" hostid="261"></div>That may be especially true in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Blinken delivering a major speech there was seen as an <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3159560/us-seeks-closer-ties-key-player-indonesia-blinken-set-make-indo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acknowledgement</a> of its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and-china-both-competing-for-influence-with-indonesia-2021-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">importance in the region</a>, and officials there were <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/blinken-indonesia-us-seeks-shore-up-southeast-asia-ties-2021-12-13/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">receptive</a>. Jakarta has a history of non-alignment, however, and is likely to seek neutrality on US-China issues.Indonesia "is not going to be a country that's going to join the US balancing coalition against China. It's fundamentally just not suited or inclined to doing that," said Hervé Lemahieu, director of research at Australia's Lowy Institute think tank.Not all Southeast Asian states prioritize South China Sea disputes or share US concern about China's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-construction-binge-spreads-to-americas-rattles-us-2019-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">growing economic influence</a>, Laksmana said. The emphasis the US puts on addressing China's activity in those areas <a href="https://amti.csis.org/conceptualization-of-maritime-security-in-southeast-asia-convergence-and-divergence/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may influence</a> how the region views potential cooperation with the US on other matters."The US should work on issue areas and policies each individual [Southeast Asian] state say they would like to work on without imposing or injecting unnecessary US-China competitive elements," Laksmana said. "As long as the US ties bilateral cooperation with its own strategic competition with China, the pressure for regional states to choose will always be there, even if Washington may not publicly ask them to."

In an important corner of Asia, the US is looking for partners to converge against 'Beijing's aggressive actions'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US reversed its decline in power in <keyword id="11902482" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="asia" source="Orion">Asia</keyword> this year, while <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>'s rise appeared to falter.</li><li>The US was an exception, as other countries struggled to respond to COVID-19, according to Australia's Lowy Institute.</li></ul>The US reversed its decline in power in Asia this year, while China's rise appeared to falter, but neither course is assured, and both face domestic issues that may hinder their influence, according to the Lowy Institute's 2021 <a href="https://power.lowyinstitute.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asia Power Index</a>.The index, published annually by the Australian think tank since 2018, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/balance-of-power-shifting-in-asia-china-gaining-on-us-2020-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tracks the distribution of power in Asia</a> by assessing countries on eight thematic measures that account for resources and influence. It <a href="https://power.lowyinstitute.org/downloads/lowy-institute-2021-asia-power-index-key-findings-report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shows</a> the comprehensive power of almost all Asian countries shrinking in 2021.The US defied that trend, registering an overall increase for the first time — though its 0.6-point gain comes after a three-point loss in 2020. In contrast, China's comprehensive power declined for the first time.Those shifts show that China's primacy in the region isn't assured and that the US isn't locked into steady decline, according to Hervé Lemahieu, director of research at the Lowy Institute and the index's lead researcher.The <a href="https://www.axios.com/pandemic-timeline-two-year-anniversary-216f74e0-0512-4d4f-8227-717614775dbb.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ongoing pandemic</a> looms over the region, but it isn't the sole reason for those changes. "It's a combination of political and structural factors," Lemahieu told Insider after the index's release this month.<div type="image" title="China covid vaccine" height="2667" width="4000" msid="88266097" hostid="261"></div>The US has had a stronger-than-expected economic recovery, resulting from its response to the pandemic's worst effects and its infrastructure spending. Its improved economic prospects through the end of the decade would be noteworthy "with or without the pandemic," Lemahieu said.The US now tops six of the index's eight measures, an improvement attributed to President Joe Biden's pandemic response, economic initiatives, and regional engagement, especially through vaccine diplomacy. Earlier this year, experts judged Biden the region's most effective leader, and that standing was not significantly tarnished by the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-planes-crews-recovering-after-afghanistan-evacuation-2021-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Afghanistan withdrawal</a> or <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-aukus-nuclear-powered-subs-in-pacific-amid-china-tensions-2021-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AUKUS backlash</a>.China and the US remain the only superpowers in the region, and the gap between them and the nearest middle powers widened this year, according to the index, even as China slipped in four of the index's measures of power.China's economy rebounded this year but other issues will affect its trajectory, including a workforce set to contract by 20% over the next 30 years, a pivot to domestic consumption as the driver of growth, and a corporate <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58182658" target="_blank" rel="noopener">crackdown</a>.A broader inward turn also undercut China's relative advantages. Strict border controls affected China's cultural influence, and leader Xi Jinping's failure to leave the country in the past two years eroded its diplomatic influence.Those issues, as well as increasing authoritarianism, will affect China's future growth and influence abroad, Lemahieu said."All these things basically combined to slow China's economic growth rate," Lemahieu said, adding that China's 8% annual growth rates a decade ago will likely settle to 4% by the end of this decade."China still is likely to overtake the US by the end of this decade at market exchange rates. It's just that the speed at which it's growing is starting to level out a bit," Lemahieu said.<h2>'What you can't predict'</h2><div type="image" title="Chinese Y-20 airlifter engines" height="1156" width="2000" msid="88266099" hostid="261"></div>The US and China are moving in opposite directions in terms of military power.Beijing's growing military strength is driven by defense spending that is now 50% larger than that of India, Japan, Taiwan, and all 10 ASEAN countries combined. China's military <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-flights-around-taiwan-effort-to-improve-asw-capability-2021-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is increasingly active</a> on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-indian-soldiers-yudh-abhyas-exercise-alaska-amid-china-tension-2021-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its periphery</a> and has added advanced weaponry and expanded nuclear forces.The US remains far ahead in terms of military capability, but its military primacy in the region is in steady relative decline. It has leveraged its regional networks to partially offset that decline, as shown by AUKUS and the security elements of the Quad partnership.A similar approach to economic engagement could help arrest <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/despite-china-tensions-countries-dont-see-better-offer-from-us-2021-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the US's decline in that field</a>, Lemahieu said. China is roughly even with the US in terms of economic capability but far ahead in its regional economic relationships, whereas the index <a href="https://power.lowyinstitute.org/downloads/lowy-institute-2021-asia-power-index-key-findings-report.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finds</a> the US facing "growing irrelevance in the political economy of Asia.""If America plays its cards right, it has the potential to remain the dominant superpower well into this century," Lemahieu told Insider. "The extent to which it remains influential in Asia will largely depend on whether it can arrest that decline in its economic influence."The Biden administration has yet to lay out its economic approach to the region. Officials have promised "<a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/conversation-white-house-indo-pacific-coordinator-kurt-campbell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quick action</a>" on that issue, but some in the region expect that effort to be hampered by anti-trade sentiment in the US.<div type="image" title="Trump ASEAN line" height="1312" width="1950" msid="88266100" hostid="261"></div>A domestic issue of greater concern may be the health of US democracy."You ask most US allies and partners, and they will tell you that [they are] very reassured by the Biden administration but also very aware that none of these issues surrounding US domestic polarization has really been effectively quelled," Lemahieu said.Former President <keyword id="11914386" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="donald-trump" source="Orion">Donald Trump</keyword>'s baseless claims about the 2020 election, attempts to disrupt the transfer of power, and Republicans' <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-free-fair-elections-435488" target="_blank" rel="noopener">embrace</a> of those falsehoods have prompted increasing concern about the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/11/us/politics/trust-in-elections-trump-democracy.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">integrity</a> of future elections.Trump's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/caught-between-trump-and-china-australia-is-reevaluating-its-position-2020-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disregard for alliances and partnerships</a> alienated many in Asia, and his possible return to power, or the victory of another candidate who shares his views, worries countries in the region."What you can't predict is the extent to which US democratic institutions become destabilized [or] the extent to which the US can no longer really be a reliable or constant foreign-policy actor," Lemahieu said. "Allies and partners will take what they can get, and they won't mention it out loud, but it's something they're thinking about."

The US reversed its declining power in Asia in 2021, but a stronger China isn't its only problem

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> and <keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword> have grown closer in recent years, evidenced by a recent, first-of-its-kind naval drill near <keyword id="6355311" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword>.</li><li>Those deepening ties have worried US officials, some of whom have said Russia should be wary.</li></ul>Russia and China conducted another first-of-its-kind joint military exercise last week, sailing warships around Japan in the latest demonstration of strengthening ties that have worried Western officials.As those ships drilled in the Pacific, President Joe Biden's nominee for US ambassador to China told lawmakers that Russia should be wary of its new partner, but experts have said both Moscow and Beijing have ample reason to maintain friendly relations."I think a lot of us, maybe 10, 20 years ago, would not have anticipated that China and Russia would begin to work together strategically, but they are," Nicholas Burns told senators during his confirmation hearing on Wednesday, saying those warming ties were "all the more reason why we need to deepen our own alliances and partnerships."<div type="image" title="Russia China navy ships patrol in Pacific Ocean" height="1125" width="2000" msid="87266845" hostid="261"></div>China and Russia have steadily strengthened their relationship, particularly their military ties, since the end of the Cold War.China's participation in Russia's Vostok exercise in 2018 was a milestone, and they followed it with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-chinese-bombers-do-joint-patrol-between-south-korea-japan-2020-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">joint bomber patrols over disputed areas</a> of the Pacific in 2019 and 2020 and, this week, with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-navies-sailing-tsugaru-strait-message-to-japan-us-2021-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a joint naval exercise in the same area</a>.On Wednesday, 10 Russian and Chinese warships transited the narrow Tsugaru Strait, between two of Japan's major islands, for the first time and continued on a joint patrol in the Pacific, also a first. On Saturday, in another first, the warships sailed through the Osumi Strait off Japan's southern coast into the East China Sea, where they parted ways.China's Defense Ministry <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1237181.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the patrol was meant to further develop their "comprehensive strategic partnership," while Russia's Defense Ministry <a href="https://tass.com/defense/1353271" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it was meant to "demonstrate the state flags of Russia and China" and "protect facilities of both countries' maritime economic activity."The exercise was widely seen as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-navies-sailing-tsugaru-strait-message-to-japan-us-2021-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a thinly veiled message to both Japan and the US</a>. Both transits were "lawful, but unnecessary, and therefore designed to send an even more pointed signal," Peter Dutton, an expert on Chinese maritime activity at the US Naval War College, <a href="https://twitter.com/peter_dutton/status/1452241654186922004" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> Sunday.<h2>A shared adversary</h2><div type="image" title="putin xi china russia" height="2329" width="3500" msid="87266846" hostid="261"></div>China's and Russia's rivalries with the US and its partners have helped foster cooperation, but they have their own historical disputes, which, along with China's ascendancy, should worry Moscow, according to Burns, who was senior director for Russia on the National Security Council in the 1990s."My numbers may be a little bit off, but I think there are 6 or 7 million Russians living east of the Ural Mountains in that vast expanse, and there are 300 or 400 million Chinese living below them," Burns told lawmakers on Wednesday. "The Russians are going to have to worry, long-term, about economic domination of Russia by China.""The Russians ought to be worried about a Chinese nuclear-weapons buildup in the western part of China, about the hypersonic missile test" earlier this year, "and the fact that China is completely unconstrained," Burns added.Burns' remarks echo those of other US officials and experts who <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-gaining-from-trumps-nato-attacks-former-us-army-leader-says-2018-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">point to demographics</a>, power imbalances, and China's <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">international</keyword> presence <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-commanders-worry-about-growing-russia-china-military-cooperation-2021-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as potential sources of friction</a>.China's activity in areas of where Russia has traditionally had influence is likely already a concern among Russian officials, according to Christopher Bort, national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia on the National Intelligence Council from 2017 to 2021."They are able to work through potential competition, but, as many people have noted, it is going to be a problem, perhaps, for the next generation of Russia's leaders," Bort <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/putins-mediterranean-gambit-endgame-unclear/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> earlier this year.Other experts have said China has an interest in maintaining a good relationship with Russia, especially amid tensions with the US.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin with Chinese soldier" height="1408" width="2000" msid="87266847" hostid="261"></div>China has gained <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-commanders-worry-about-growing-russia-china-military-cooperation-2021-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">significant military hardware and expertise</a> from Russia, and two decades of good relations have "bought China quite a bit of strategic space" to focus on the Western Pacific, "so it would be in China's long-term interest to sustain that," Toshi Yoshihara, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KdjFtELKhY&amp;ab_channel=ReischauerCenternter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> earlier this year.China's advances may lead it to be more assertive on the international stage, but "Beijing will be careful not to be arrogant in relations with Russia - as long as it needs Moscow as the main geopolitical ally in countering the US," said Artyom Lukin, a scholar of international relations at Russia's Far Eastern Federal University."In the foreseeable future, I don't see any conflicts or flash points that could fatally undermine the Russia-China entente. That's primarily because they have a shared adversary - the US," Lukin told Insider.US military officials have expressed concern about China and Russia's military cooperation but downplayed it as "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-commanders-worry-about-growing-russia-china-military-cooperation-2021-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">superficial</a>." US officials have also cited the scope of US alliances and partnerships as evidence of Russia and China's international isolation."Generally speaking, we don't have an issue with military exercises. We do it all the time," chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Monday when asked about the recent Russia-China naval exercise."We're going to continue to work with our allies and partners in the region - and we have a lot of them - and we believe those alliances and partnerships are real, unique strengths that the United States has," Kirby added.Russia and China don't have a formal alliance, but officials in both countries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, have used glowing terms to describe their relations - a reflection of lessons learned from 20th-century clashes."At least as far as the present leaders in Moscow and Beijing are concerned, they are very mindful of this historical experience," Lukin said.

Russia and China are getting closer, but Moscow should worry about its new partner, Biden's China ambassador pick says

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>'s aggressive foreign policy has turned off many of its neighbors.</li><li>US officials have noted this trend, describing it as a miscalculation by Beijing.</li><li>But experts say the US still doesn't have <keyword id="12054992" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="indo-pacific" source="Orion">Indo-Pacific</keyword> strategy or a better offer than China.</li></ul>China's aggressive foreign policy has frustrated its neighbors, but dismay with Beijing doesn't necessarily translate into an embrace of the US, and experts say the Biden administration has yet to articulate a clear strategy for the region and a better offer for countries there.China has had contentious relations with many of its neighbors for some time. Those fraught ties have deteriorated in recent months, as shown by violent border clashes with India, Beijing's increasing economic pressure on Australia over its support for inquiry into Covid-19, and Chinese <a href="https://www.insider.com/local-chinese-committee-shares-video-calling-nuclear-strikes-japan-2021-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threats</a> toward Japan over its engagement with Taiwan.Where governments have been more accommodating toward Beijing, public backlash is emerging or intensifying.In October, Cambodian police <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cambodia-protests/cambodia-breaks-up-protest-over-alleged-china-military-base-idUSKBN2780RP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cracked down</a> on a protest against <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rapid-construction-at-cambodia-base-amid-concern-about-china-presence-2021-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Chinese military presence there</a>. Anti-China sentiment is also <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2020/02/04/populism-islam-and-development-why-pakistans-relationship-with-chinese-investment-is-nothing-but-simple/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">growing in Pakistan</a>, where recent deadly bombings have targeted Chinese interests. Filipinos <a href="https://supchina.com/2021/06/14/china-out-demonstrations-philippines-independence/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">continue</a> to protest China's conduct in the South China Sea and their government's conciliatory approach toward Beijing.Polling shows that many of China's neighbors see Beijing <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/12/05/people-around-the-globe-are-divided-in-their-opinions-of-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unfavorably</a> and view its growing military as <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/16/how-people-in-asia-pacific-view-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a threat</a>. A recent survey found that South Koreans viewed China <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/asia/korea-china-election-young-voters.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">less favorably</a> than they did Japan, a historical rival who forced Korean women to be sex slaves before and during World War II. A survey of Indians ages 18 to 35 found that China was <a href="https://www.orfonline.org/research/young-indians-distrust-china-pakistan-rate-pandemic-economy-as-big-challenges/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the least-trusted</a> country.<div type="image" title="Philippines activists protest China" height="681" width="1024" msid="86045911" hostid="261"></div>US officials see those trends as signs of Chinese miscalculation."What we've seen of late, really, is China taking on many countries simultaneously," Kurt Campbell, the White House coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, said an <a href="https://asiasociety.org/video/conversation-kurt-campbell-white-house-coordinator-indo-pacific" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asia Society event</a> in July.Campbell said that China's assertiveness with Taiwan, India, Japan, Australia, the US, and "wolf warrior" diplomacy ran counter to his assumption China wouldn't take on more than one foreign-policy challenge simultaneously."I see little yield and, if anything, a rising sense of nationalism and a sense of aggrievement and a determination to continue to prosecute a ... case internationally across the board," Campbell said.US Navy Rear Adm. Michael Studeman, chief intelligence officer for US Indo-Pacific Command, echoed Campbell at a separate event in July, saying that Chinese officials appear "tone deaf" to how their tactics "really are starting to turn off a lot of nations out there who don't like the look of a more powerful China and how it's acting.""Wolf warrior" diplomacy, conditions attached to COVID aid, and a general "demand for gratefulness" are "just a taste of what it looks like when China is strong and confident," Studeman added. "I think it's starting to scare a number of different nations."<h2>'Not being Trump is not good enough'</h2><div type="image" title="Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte" height="1333" width="2000" msid="86045915" hostid="261"></div>There is "bubbling resentment" in many places, according to Charles Dunst, an associate with Eurasia Group's Global Macro practice."People are definitely fearful of and frustrated with, I think, China's military aggressiveness and diplomatic aggressiveness," but that won't necessarily lead to an embrace of the US, Dunst told Insider in August."Most countries don't choose between China and the United States," Dunst said. "They're not turning around and saying, 'well, China bad, US good. We're all pro-America now.'"Dunst said that balancing is seen clearly in <keyword id="11906677" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="southeast-asia" source="Orion">Southeast Asia</keyword>, where feelings on China are mixed but increasing strategic competition is a top concern.In recent weeks, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Vice President Kamala Harris have visited the region. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held virtual meetings with leaders there related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, a highly regarded regional institution.The US leaders sought to <a href="https://www.state.gov/briefing-with-senior-state-department-officials-previewing-secretary-blinkens-participation-in-this-weeks-asean-related-ministerials/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revitalize partnerships</a> and demonstrate US commitment to the region but stressed their visits weren't about taking sides."We are not asking countries in the region to choose between the United States and China," Austin <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Speeches/Speech/Article/2708192/secretary-of-defense-remarks-at-the-40th-international-institute-for-strategic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> in <keyword id="11895291" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="singapore" source="Orion">Singapore</keyword> in late July. A month later, Harris <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/24/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-indo-pacific-region/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> US "engagement in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific is not against any one country, nor is it designed to make anyone choose between countries."<div type="image" title="Kamala Harris visiting USS Tulsa in Singapore" height="1315" width="2000" msid="86045917" hostid="261"></div>That engagement is largely welcomed and seen by some as overdue - "We need to step up our game in Southeast Asia," Campbell said in July - but even with <a href="https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2713638/philippine-president-restores-visiting-forces-agreement-with-us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">progress</a> in some areas, including on security issues, experts saw Harris' "<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/03/politics/vice-president-kamala-harris-singapore-vietnam/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">America is back</a>" message as off-key and US offerings as lacking."Not being Trump is not good enough," Van Jackson, a senior lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, said on <a href="https://www.undiplomaticpodcast.com/episodes/96" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a recent podcast</a>. Jackson said that to counter China the US needs to "play to the needs" of ASEAN countries by addressing vaccination efforts, climate change, and "post-pandemic economic recovery."Biden "has yet to present a serious Indo-Pacific policy - or its most important element, an effective economic strategy," Susannah Patton and Ashley Townshend, experts at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/kamala-harris-singapore-vietnam-southeast-asia-trip-biden-indo-pacific-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> as Harris toured the region.Southeast Asian countries value economic cooperation and are alarmed by a potential "decoupling" of the US and China, according to James Crabtree, executive director of the <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">International</keyword> Institute for Strategic Studies' Asia office.The US remains the region's most powerful military but is no longer its biggest economy and doesn't set the rules for trade, "so the US is in danger of having a rather unbalanced approach to this part of the world where it carries a big sword but doesn't have very much to offer in its wallet," Crabtree <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3625ccdd-f586-41a0-be2d-2f1a65ff7007" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said in June</a>.Dunst <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29844/leaders-in-the-global-south-try-to-ignore-rising-anti-chinese-sentiment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has argued</a> that deeper engagement with China poses risks for many of these countries, but, he told Insider, Biden still needs to make them a better offer."If the US goal is to ... capitalize on this Chinese overstepping in much of the developing world, you have to have real, aggressive economic plans that actually are coming in response to what local populations need," Dunst said.

China is irritating more countries in Asia, but the US is struggling to come up with a better offer

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US is increasing the time and resources spent on countering <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> in the Asia-Pacific region.</li><li>The powers are competing for influence with the region's smallest states: islands dotting the Pacific.</li><li>Those islands are "critical geostrategic ground," the head of US <keyword id="1551039" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indo-Pacific">Indo-Pacific</keyword> Command said.</li></ul>As the US seeks to counter China in the Asia-Pacific region, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-looks-to-pacific-islands-for-presence-amid-china-competition-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the smallest countries there have outsize importance</a>, US lawmakers and the top military commander in the region said this month.US military planning has long focused on the first island chain, which runs through Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and the second island chain, which is farther west and includes <keyword id="236698" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Guam">Guam</keyword>, a major US military outpost.Those islands "offer the capacity to support crisis and contingency operations" by hosting command-and-control nodes, dispersal locations, and fuel and munitions storage, Navy Adm. Philip Davidson, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, said at the American Enterprise Institute <a href="https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-us-indo-pacific-commands-adm-philip-davidson/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last week</a>.China's growing military, especially its missiles, has US commanders looking for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-agile-combat-employment-means-new-tasks-for-airmen-2021-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ways to spread out and thwart attacks</a>.Davidson has said defending Guam, specifically with the Aegis Ashore missile-defense system, is his <a href="https://news.usni.org/2020/07/21/protecting-guam-from-chinese-missiles-is-top-priority-for-indo-pacoms-davidson" target="_blank" rel="noopener">priority</a>, which he repeated last week, calling the island the US's "most critical operating location west of the <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> dateline."<div type="image" title="US Navy 7th Fleet USS Blue Ridge Guam" height="933" width="1400" msid="81415311" hostid="261"></div>Davidson submitted his command's investment priorities to Congress this month, seeking $27 billion through 2027 to support the <keyword id="9390487" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Pacific-Deterrence-Initiative">Pacific Deterrence Initiative</keyword>, which was <a href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/12.03.20%20FY21%20NDAA%20Summary.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">established</a> last year to bolster military presence in the region.Davidson's proposal included $3.3 billion to build "highly survivable, precision-strike networks along the First Island Chain," according to <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/03/02/eyeing-china-indo-pacific-command-seeks-27-billion-deterrence-fund/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defense News</a>."The fault line in the international order is the first island chain, and the countries that reside in the first island chain recognize that, I think, more than anyone else on the planet," Davidson said at AEI.The islands west of that chain are also "critical geostrategic ground," Davidson added.In addition to $1.6 billion for Guam's Aegis Ashore system, the proposal <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/03/02/eyeing-china-indo-pacific-command-seeks-27-billion-deterrence-fund/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">included</a> nearly $200 million for a radar system on Palau, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-looks-to-pacific-islands-for-presence-amid-china-competition-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an island strategically located</a> between the Philippines and Guam.Guam is a US territory, but Davidson is also responsible for the region's Freely Associated States - Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands - which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-looks-to-pacific-islands-for-presence-amid-china-competition-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">allow the US military to conduct activity</a> there in exchange for defending them."These are [countries with] millions of square miles of ocean space with pretty small populations," Davidson said.<h2>Outsize influence</h2><div type="image" title="Army soldier Zero Palau" height="1333" width="2000" msid="81415312" hostid="261"></div>While sparsely populated, those states and others in Oceania control immense marine resources and are a potentially decisive bloc of votes in bodies like the UN, in addition to their strategically valuable location.China has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-vanuatu-military-post-worrying-australia-us-2018-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sought to win them over</a> for those reasons and as part of its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-loses-biggest-pacific-ally-as-solomons-embraces-china-2019-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">effort to isolate Taiwan</a>. The US has criticized what it sees as Beijing's often unscrupulous dealings with smaller countries."I see a staggering amount of [Chinese] attempts at corruption, coercion and cooption ... across the whole of the Pacific Island chain," Davidson said."They're trying to coopt leadership and international institutions that matter," Davidson added, calling China dictating international norms "a high danger."Hours before Davidson spoke, lawmakers pressed Biden administration appointees over similar concerns."I think that it is critical to engage with Oceania and with the island states. They are often ... critical votes at the United Nations," Wendy Sherman, nominee for deputy secretary of state, told Hawaiian Sen. Brian Schatz at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on March 3.At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing the following day, Schatz's counterpart, Sen. Mazie Hirono, asked Colin Kahl, nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, to "continue to build on the [Pacific Deterrence Initiative] and engage with our allies in the region, especially the Freely Associated States.""There's a lot of bipartisan support for supporting our allies and partners in the region," Kahl responded. "You have my commitment to act in that regard if I'm confirmed."<h2>Strategic imperatives</h2><div type="image" title="Navy nurse medic Koror Palau" height="1333" width="2000" msid="81415313" hostid="261"></div>Pacific Island countries have gravitated toward China out of a desire to diversify their partnerships and because of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-presence-in-pacific-means-for-taiwan-expert-explains-what-2019-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a lack of engagement</a> by the US.The US <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-looks-to-pacific-islands-for-presence-amid-china-competition-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">touts economic initiatives</a> and other <a href="https://www.state.gov/key-topics-bureau-of-east-asian-and-pacific-affairs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">development efforts</a>, but many of its interactions in the region are through the military."A considerable portion of the focus of [US] reengagement has been around that security cooperation element," Anna Powles, a senior lecturer in security studies at New Zealand's Massey University, said at a recent Georgetown University <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRpKVeQz27w" target="_blank" rel="noopener">event</a>.The challenge will be "marrying" Indo-Pacific Command and State Department efforts "to ensure that there is a consistent degree of engagement ... that isn't simply responding to strategic imperatives and anxieties but rather follow[ing] consistent engagement that's driven by Pacific priorities," Powles added.<div type="image" title="Navy Seabee engineer Tinian" height="1333" width="2000" msid="81415316" hostid="261"></div>US officials acknowledged a need for more than just military engagement."The Department of Defense is one of the many federal partners that should continue to strengthen alliances with the [Freely Associated States] using a whole-of-government approach," a spokesperson for Hirono told Insider."We need to be focused on the Pacific Island chain," Davidson said last week, "not only militarily ... but their role in international institutions and as part of this global economy."But cooperation with China on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-looks-to-pacific-islands-for-presence-amid-china-competition-2020-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issues important to the region</a> should also be a goal, according to Steven McGann, former ambassador to Fiji, Nauru, Kiribati, Tonga, and Tuvalu."The United States and China have tried to work together. For instance, <a href="https://www.usaid.gov/timor-leste/project-descriptions/developing-agricultural-communities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in Timor Leste</a> there's a trilateral agricultural project that most people don't know exists," McGann said at the Georgetown event."There are a number of areas in which we can cooperate," McGann added, "but it's also important for the rest of the world not just to see United States engagement with Pacific Island countries as solely engagement just to counter China."

The Pacific's smallest countries are 'critical geostrategic ground' against China, top US commander says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>As US-China competition intensifies, those powers are competing for influence in the <keyword id="1551039" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indo-Pacific">Indo-Pacific</keyword>.</li><li>One of the countries they hope to win over has historically resisted picking sides: <keyword id="8692" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indonesia">Indonesia</keyword>.</li><li>With tensions rising, and concern about <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> increasing, Indonesia is pursuing its own military buildup.</li></ul>Tensions continue to rise in the Indo-Pacific, where China's economic growth and military modernization have drawn the attention and concern of politicians and defense officials in the region and around the world.As China and the US compete for influence in the region, they are setting their sights on a country that has historically resisted getting involved in foreign affairs: Indonesia.With over 270 million people, Indonesia is the fourth-largest country in the world and the third-largest in Asia. Made up of over 17,000 islands that straddle the Pacific and Indian oceans, it has a commanding position over the vital Strait of Malacca and the traditional maritime approaches to Australia."In the geopolitical challenges of the future, Indonesia sits in an incredibly important strategic location," Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">International</keyword> Studies, told Insider.Indonesia's importance to <a href="https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2019/08/26/the-malacca-dilemma-a-hindrance-to-chinese-ambitions-in-the-21st-century/" target="_top">China</a>, the region, and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32452" target="_top">the world</a> is hard to overstate, and while it maintains neutrality on most matters, it is pursuing a massive military modernization effort.<h2>Historically non-aligned</h2><div type="image" title="Indonesian President Sukarno Robert F. Kennedy" height="1324" width="2000" msid="84892318" hostid="261"></div>Indonesia has long avoided picking sides between superpowers. A former Dutch colony, it took an anti-imperialist stance upon independence in 1949 under President Sukarno.Indonesia was a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, and even hosted the group's first meeting in 1955. By the 1960s, though, Sukarno was tilting Indonesia toward Beijing and the Communist bloc.The military, with the support of the US and other Western governments, reversed that tilt with a violent purge of Indonesian Communist Party (KPI) members, suspected leftists, and other minority groups after a failed coup attempt in 1965 for which the KPI was blamed.The campaign is believed to have killed between 500,000 and 3 million people between 1965 and 1966. Communism was subsequently banned and remains so today, but Indonesia has never fully aligned with the West."Indonesia has a complicated history" with the US, Green said. "It's kind of been like a pendulum, back and forth."Indonesia's relations with the West were strained during the latter half of the 20th century by its rivalry with Australia, criticism of Indonesia's human-rights record, and US and Australian support for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/30/east-timor-indonesias-invasion-and-the-long-road-to-independence" target="_top">East Timor's independence</a>.In the early 2000s, US military interventions in the Middle East were also viewed negatively in Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim-majority country.Relations have improved over the past 15 years, aided by increased security cooperation, especially on terrorism, and by US support after the 2004 earthquake and tsunami that killed over 130,000 Indonesians.<h2>Military modernization</h2><div type="image" title="Indonesia military navy skydiving paratrooper" height="1333" width="2000" msid="84892320" hostid="261"></div>Indonesia's military, known for its brutal tactics, has always been large and relatively strong.It has managed to <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2019/09/tracing-indonesias-counterterrorism-measures-since-the-2002-bali-bombings/" target="_top">contain</a> Islamist terrorists largely on its own - to the relief of many in Washington and elsewhere in the region - but today it is gearing up for conventional enemies.A draft proposal seen earlier this year outlined <a href="https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/indonesia-reveals-usd125-billion-military-modernisation-plan" target="_top">more than $100 billion</a> in defense procurement and sustainment spending through the mid-2040s. While that spending may not be <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/29788/for-indonesia-military-modernization-must-go-beyond-new-hardware" target="_top">about China specifically</a>, China's rise has been cause for concern in Jakarta.Although Indonesia does not have any official territorial disputes with China, it is increasingly worried by <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3125084/south-china-sea-what-does-beijing-want-indonesias-natuna-islands" target="_top">Chinese activities in its waters</a>, particularly in the Natuna Sea, the southern portion of the South China Sea.Indonesia <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/06/10/indonesia-orders-six-fremm-frigates-from-fincantieri/" target="_top">recently ordered</a> six FREMM frigates (similar to the US Navy's future <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/surface-navy-association/2021/01/12/heres-the-latest-on-the-us-navys-new-constellation-class-frigate/" target="_top">Constellation-class</a> frigates) and two <a href="https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/world-naval-forces/west-european-navies-vessels-ships-equipment/italian-navy-marina-militare-vessels-ships-equipment/italian-navy-marina-militare-frigates-and-destroyers/553-maestrale-class-anti-submarine-frigates-asw-f570-maestrale-f571-grecale-f573-scirocco-f575-euro-f572-libeccio-f574-aliseo-f576-espero-f577-zeffiro-teseo-mk2-marina-militare-italian-philippine-navy-fincantieri-datasheet-pictures-photos-video-specifications.html" target="_top">Maestrale-class</a> frigates from Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri.<div type="image" title="Indonesia troops in German Leopard tanks" height="1333" width="2000" msid="84892322" hostid="261"></div>It is <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a36354997/indonesia-tank-boat/" target="_top">currently testing</a> a new type of catamaran patrol craft dubbed "tank boat" because of the tank turret on its roof.After recently <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2021/04/26/the-kri-nanggala-402-tragedy-old-subs-are-getting-pushed-to-the-limit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">losing a submarine</a>, Indonesia's navy is <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Indonesia-looks-to-triple-submarine-fleet-after-Chinese-incursions" target="_top">hoping to increase</a> its submarine fleet from 12 to as many as 36 boats. Companies from South Korea, France, Russia, and Turkey have all offered designs, and Japanese firms may as well.Indonesia also has grand plans for its air force.It is <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/indonesia-to-boost-air-force-with-f-15ex-rafale-jets/2149103" target="_top">interested in buying</a> eight F-15EX fighters from the US, 36 Rafale fighters from France, and <a href="https://theaviationgeekclub.com/indonesias-defense-minister-to-meet-his-austrian-counterpart-to-talk-about-eurofighter-typhoon-deal/" target="_top">possibly</a> all 15 of Austria's Eurofighter Typhoons. It is also a joint partner in South Korea's <a href="https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/07/the-kf-21-boramae-will-evolve-until-possess-characteristics-of-sixth-generation-fighters/" target="_top">KF-21</a> fighter program and <a href="http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20210416000709" target="_top">plans</a> to acquire 48 of them.Indonesia's army is adding a slew of armored vehicles, including a <a href="https://www.army-technology.com/projects/kaplan-mt-modern-medium-weight-tank/" target="_top">new medium tank</a> developed with Turkish assistance, to supplement its force of 103 Leopard 2 tanks, Czech <a href="https://www.armyrecognition.com/march_2020_news_defense_global_security_army_industry/czech_defense_industry_will_deliver_23_pandur_ii_armored_vehicles_to_indonesia.html" target="_top">Pandar II</a> armored personnel carriers, and domestically developed <a href="https://pindad.com/tactical-vehicle-4-x-4--hd-v1" target="_top">Komodo armored vehicles</a>.<h2>Preparing for the worst</h2><div type="image" title="US Indonesia Maritime Training Center" height="829" width="1200" msid="84892324" hostid="261"></div>In addition to the purchases, Indonesia has sought increased cooperation with other countries.In March, it <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/03/30/japan-indonesia-sign-arms-transfer-pact-amid-china-concerns/" target="_top">signed a pact</a> with Japan that allows the transfer of Japanese defense equipment and technology to Indonesia and paves the way for joint exercises.In June, the US and Indonesia <a href="https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-funds-indonesian-maritime-training-center-near-strait-of-malacca" target="_top">announced</a> that the US would fund construction of a new training base for Indonesia's coast guard on Batam Island, close to the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Singapore.But Indonesia has maintained close ties with China.China's navy is <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3134039/china-claims-progress-helping-recover-sunken-indonesian" target="_top">recovering</a> the Indonesian submarine that sank in the Java Sea earlier this year. (Some believe Beijing's assistance with the recovery <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sends-rescue-ships-to-help-recover-lost-indonesian-submarine-2021-5" target="_top">has a military motive</a>). China has also <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-steps-into-covid-19-vaccine-void-in-asias-developing-nations-11623848904?mod=article_inline" target="_top">sent</a> tens of millions of its COVID-19 vaccines to Indonesia, where cases and deaths <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/07/11/a-wave-of-covid-19-is-engulfing-indonesia" target="_top">are rising</a>.<div type="image" title="indonesian submarine" height="2280" width="4288" msid="84892325" hostid="261"></div>Countries in the region have responded to China's growing influence and its competition with the West in different ways. Some, like Laos and Cambodia, have leaned toward Beijing, while others, like India, toward confrontation.Indonesia, for its part, continues to focus inward while preparing for the worst."Right now, in some ways, Indonesia's a little bit of a paralyzed giant," Green said. "Indonesia's not moving either way very much to be honest, and under [President Joko Widodo] it's very domestically focused."But with China's <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/27/20/duterte-i-am-inutile-in-face-of-chinese-aggression-in-s-china-sea" target="_top">aggressive actions</a> in the South China Sea, Indonesia is increasingly aware of the threat Beijing poses and of the value of the "a free and open Indo-Pacific" that the US and its allies advocate."That sense of common purpose as China throws its weight around is quietly growing," Green told Insider, adding that Indonesia's profile will only grow as that competition intensifies."It's striking how little attention Indonesia gets commensurate with its geopolitical importance," Green said. "In some ways it's the soft underbelly of this most crucial region right now."

The US and China both have their eyes on a country at the heart of the Indo-Pacific

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="6355478" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="australia">Australia</keyword> has announced major investments in its own military capabilities, especially new weapons.</li><li>Countries in the region bolster their militaries amid heightened tensions between the US and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>.</li><li>Australia is looking for "a combination of integration with the US and greater self-reliance," one expert told Insider.</li></ul>As China's growing military stokes concerns in the <keyword id="1551039" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Indo-Pacific">Indo-Pacific</keyword> region, US allies are stepping up their own military modernization efforts.China's immediate neighbors, particularly Japan and Taiwan, get most of the attention when it comes to military modernization, but Australia, which has no territorial disputes with Beijing, is also investing heavily in its own armed forces.Last month, the Australian government <a href="https://apnews.com/article/australia-health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-bc012f1a97ae78fc76c359084937516f" target="_top">announced</a> an economic spending plan that included some $212 billion in defense spending over the next decade.The spending covers <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-expands-military-bases-training-with-us-amid-china-tensions-2021-4" target="_top">updating bases</a> and acquiring new weapons, including long-range missiles - all meant to increase Australia's deterrence and combat capabilities and enable it to continue operating smoothly with US forces.The new plans come amid a sharp decline in Sino-Australian relations, driven by China's military modernization, its activities in the South China Sea and Australia's <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/australia-scrambles-to-revive-pacific-ties-as-chinas-war-influence-grows/news-story/82b004a295de8d47017a8daf889fffc6" target="_top">Pacific island neighbors</a>, and Beijing's efforts to influence and coerce Australia through <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/02/627249909/australia-and-new-zealand-are-ground-zero-for-chinese-influence" target="_top">politica</a><a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/02/627249909/australia-and-new-zealand-are-ground-zero-for-chinese-influence" target="_top">l</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijing-s-fresh-threat-to-australia-20201118-p56fqs.html" target="_top">diplomatic</a>, and <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/australia-china-trade-tensions-persist-with-cancelled-agreements-and-sharp-statements/" target="_top">economic</a> pressure.Australia's <a href="https://www1.defence.gov.au/strategy-policy/strategic-update-2020" target="_top">2020 defense strategic update</a> reflected not only those changes but the pace at which they have happened, according to Arthur Sinodinos, Australia's ambassador to the US."Things were going in the direction we expected. They just happened more quickly than we thought. So it was important to review our strategic defense outlook and work out what to do," Sinodinos said in response to a question from Insider at <a href="https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap-with-ambassador-arthur-sinodinos/" target="_top">an event</a> in February.<h2>Denial and punishment</h2><div type="image" title="Australia air force missile" height="801" width="1200" msid="83703648" hostid="261"></div>Australia has already been investing heavily in its military, <a href="https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/Data%20for%20all%20countries%20from%201988%E2%80%932020%20as%20a%20share%20of%20GDP%20%28pdf%29.pdf" target="_top">s</a><a href="https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/Data%20for%20all%20countries%20from%201988%E2%80%932020%20as%20a%20share%20of%20GDP%20%28pdf%29.pdf" target="_top">pending</a> 2.1% of its GDP on defense in 2020, according to the Stockholm <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">International</keyword> Peace Research Institute.That makes it the <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2021/world-military-spending-rises-almost-2-trillion-2020" target="_top">fifth-largest</a> defense spender in Asia. Amid that modernization effort is an ongoing <a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/coercion-deterrence-and-australias-long-range-strike-options/" target="_top">debate</a> about what weapons will have the best deterrent effect - a relatively new consideration."The overall assumptions that guided US and Australian thinking about contingencies in the Pacific were that we would have dominance in a maritime domain, and then it would be a question of where we applied power," Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Insider.China's growing missile arsenal and navy, both of which can cover longer distances, can threaten US allies in the region and the US bases they host."The harsh reality is dominance is going to be very hard to sustain in the face of this major Chinese buildup," Green said.As a result, the debate has focused on two means of deterrence: by denial, which entails the ability to destroy Chinese ships, subs, and planes; and by punishment, which requires the ability to strike China directly.<div type="image" title="Australia navy SM-2 missile" height="1333" width="2000" msid="83703649" hostid="261"></div>Many of the new systems Australia is acquiring fall into the deterrence-by-denial category.The Royal Australian Air Force <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/next-milestones-australias-f-35-program" target="_top">has</a> 33 F-35A stealth fighters in service and plans to add another 39 by 2023. The fifth-generation fighter will replace Australia's aging F/A-18s. The RAAF is also pursuing an <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/03/02/australia-makes-another-order-for-boeing-made-loyal-wingman-drones-after-a-successful-first-flight/" target="_top">unmanned fighter</a>.The Royal Australian Navy plans to boost its <a href="https://www.navy.gov.au/fleet/ships-boats-craft" target="_top">main battle force</a> of three <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/hobart-class-air-warfarre-destroyers/" target="_top">Hobart-class destroyers</a> with nine new <a href="https://www.navy.gov.au/fleet/ships-boats-craft/future/ffg" target="_top">Hunter-class frigates</a>. The Hunters are expected to start entering service in the late 2020s, eventually replacing the navy's eight <a href="https://www.navy.gov.au/hmas-anzac-iii" target="_top">Anzac-class frigates</a>.Australia's navy currently operates six <a href="https://www.navy.gov.au/fleet/ships-boats-craft/submarines/ssg" target="_top">Collins-class</a> guided-missile submarines, and <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/03/australia-and-naval-group-ink-agreement-on-attack-class-submarine-program/" target="_top">plans to acquire</a> at least 12 new Attack-class diesel-electric submarines. Attack-class subs will be able to fire torpedoes and missiles, like the French Barracuda-class nuclear-powered attack subs on which they're based.The Attack-class program has run into a number of problems, and <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/defence-admits-it-is-looking-at-back-up-plan-for-french-subs-deal-20210602-p57xdu" target="_top">recent report</a><a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/defence-admits-it-is-looking-at-back-up-plan-for-french-subs-deal-20210602-p57xdu" target="_top">s</a> suggest that Australian defense officials may choose another design. The Australians hope to have the new subs by the 2030s.Australia also operates two <a href="https://www.navy.gov.au/fleet/ships-boats-craft/lhd" target="_top">Canberra-class amphibious assault ships</a>. In addition to amphibious assaults and anti-submarine operations, the Canberras can also respond quickly to natural disasters or crises in the Asia-Pacific, helping build good relations with neighbors and countering China's efforts to expand its influence.<h2>Fighting alongside the US, not relying on it</h2><div type="image" title="Marine Corps Australia B-2 bomber" height="1666" width="2500" msid="83703650" hostid="261"></div>The US and Australia have a <a href="https://usa.embassy.gov.au/defence-cooperation" target="_top">long history</a> of close military cooperation. An Australian general was the first non-American to command US troops, leading them into the Battle of Hamel in July 1918. Since then, Australia has fought alongside the US in every major American conflict, including <a href="https://www.awm.gov.au/articles/event/vietnam" target="_top">Vietnam</a>, Afghanistan, and Iraq.Australia's strong relationship with the US has meant it can focus on building an arsenal for deterrence by denial while relying on Washington to provide deterrence by punishment.But Australia is working hard to develop capabilities - such as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-will-build-own-guided-missiles-amid-unease-about-china-2021-3" target="_top">long-range anti-ship and air-defense missiles</a> and <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/industry/techwatch/2020/11/30/australia-us-partner-on-air-launched-hypersonic-missile/" target="_top">hypersonic missiles</a> - that will allow it to strike distant Chinese targets. Those systems may eventually evolve and give Canberra its own deterrence-by-punishment capabilities, reducing its reliance on the US in a crisis.Australia is one of the US's few "real regional war-fighting-capable" allies in the Indo-Pacific, said Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security chair at the Hudson Institute.In its pursuit of new weaponry, Canberra is looking for "a combination of integration with the US and greater self-reliance and hedging on the part of Australia," Cronin told Insider.<div type="image" title="India Australia US Navy P-8" height="1125" width="2000" msid="83703651" hostid="261"></div>The new weaponry is essential, as China's military capabilities pose a significant risk."The US and Australian militaries are having hard discussions about real scenarios in Asia that they didn't have 20 years ago," Green said.One such scenario is an invasion of Taiwan. Australia hasn't made any concrete commitments to Taiwan's defense but many <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/not-clear-us-others-would-help-taiwan-if-china-attacked-2021-5" target="_top">expect</a> it would play a role if China tries to seize the island. That likely complicates Chinese military planning."If you're in China's seat ... you're thinking you've got to knock out Australia one way or the other," Cronin said. "Knock out their satellites, threaten them to deter them from acting together [with the US], intimidate them, do what you have to do."Australia has resisted Chinese threats in the past, and the military investments it's making now are an acknowledgement that more is needed to resist them in the future."We're upping the amount we spend on high-technology weapons, precision-guided missiles, and the rest," Sinodinos said at the event in February. "What that has done is, I think, shown our credibility, that we're not an ally that just wants to glide through on the coattails of someone else."

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