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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets celebrated Donald Trump's election victory on Wednesday.</li><li>The Dow soared by more than 1,400 points. Bank stocks, tech shares and bitcoin rallied in the session.</li></ul>US stocks embarked on a major rally on Wednesday as traders took in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump's election win</a>.Major indexes soared to fresh records, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 1,500 points during the session.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">Bond yields surged</a> as investors eyed the potential for inflation and interest rates to rise again in another Trump term. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury spiked 14 basis points to 4.431%.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,929.05, up 2.53%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,729.93, up 3.57% (+ 1,508.05 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,983.46, up 2.95%</li></ul>Traders piled into assets they see <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">benefitting under a Trump presidency</a>, with markets eyeing an agenda of deregulation and lower taxes benefiting US corporations.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">Bank stocks</a> soared during the day, with Bank of America and Citigroup more than 8%, JPMorgan up 11%, and shares of Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs each up 13%.Tesla <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-win-elon-musk-election-tsla-2024-11">climbed almost 15%</a> to trade at its highest level in over two years. Investors see Elon Musk and his companies among the election winners after the CEO strongly backed Trump during his campaign.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-soars-crypto-president-donald-trumps-election-betting-odds-2024-10">Bitcoin jumped to a fresh record high</a>, climbing above $75,000 for the first time ever. Investors see Trump as the first "crypt president"," hoping that his term will boost digital assets after he courted the market during his campaign.Wall Street will focus on the Fed's policy meeting on Thursday. Central bankers are expected to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">cut rates another 25 basis points</a> on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point cut in December. However, rate cut expectations are starting to ease as investors consider potentially higher inflation under another Trump term."As a result, the Fed rate cut on Thursday may be the last cut, since the Fed does not like to fight market rates," Louis Navellier, the chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a note on Wednesday, pointing to higher Treasury yields."As we move into 2025, we believe it's possible that we only see two or three cuts for the year depending on the mix of policy and growth that plays out," Yung-Yu Ma, the CIO of BMO Wealth Management, added.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-soars-record-valuation-overtakes-apple-nvda-ai-2024-11">Nvidia stock hit a record high</a>, solidifying its position as the world's most valuable company.</li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-48-million-profits-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">polymarket whale that bet big on Donald Trump's victory</a> banked $48 million on Wednesday.</li><li>There are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11?_gl=1*1culf3a*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDkxNjYxMC41MjguMS4xNzMwOTE5MTMyLjM0LjAuMA..">three post-election reasons why stocks are bound to rise</a> through the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/ukraine-bonds-trump-wins-us-election-russia-war-zelenskyy-2024-11">Ukraine bonds jumped after Trump's win</a> amid his vows to help end the war in Ukraine.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped slightly to $71.89 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, edged lower by 0.5% to $75.14 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slumped 2.85% to $2,665.64 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 13 basis points to 4.426%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 9.31% to $75,742.</li></ul>

Stock market euphoric over Trump win

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bond yields surged after Trump's reelection, which could impact the rate borrowers get on loans. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 18 basis points, and the 30-year bond yield saw its biggest jump since March 2020. </li></ul>Bond yields are soaring after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Donald Trump's reelection,</a> suggesting that US borrowers might not get the relief they've been hoping for as Trump's policies have the potential to complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged 18 basis points on Wednesday morning to 4.477%, representing the highest level since July 1. It's surged 76 basis points since <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">the Fed launched its first interest rate cut</a> of the cycle in mid-September.Longer-term yields also spiked, with the 30-year US Treasury yield jumping as much as 24 basis points for its biggest move higher since March 2020.Treasury yields influence the pricing of consumer and corporate debt, and the latest moves higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rates-influence-when-we-pay-off-mortgage-2024-11">will put pressure on consumer borrowers</a> who want to take out a mortgage to buy a house or an auto loan to buy a car. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate — which closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/todays-mortgage-rates-wednesday-6-2024-11">has been creeping up toward 7%</a> and is likely to eclipse that level if Wednesday's yield surge holds. That would send mortgage rates back to the levels they were at this summer, dimming hopes for potential home buyers to see some improvement in affordability. The surge in bond yields is being <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">driven by the expectation that Trump's policy proposals,</a> like broad tariffs, tax cuts, and the deportation of millions of immigrants, would be inflationary, driving up prices and wage growth. That would cause the Fed to change its road map for further interest rate cuts as prices and wage growth once again creep up. "The Federal Reserve may take the view that if fiscal policy is going to be loosened relative to their previous baseline forecast then it needs to run monetary policy tighter, implying a higher neutral interest rate to keep inflation at its 2% target," James Knightley, an economist at ING Economics, said.While markets expect the Fed to proceed with a 25 basis point interest rate cut at its meeting on Thursday, the chances of another 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 66% on Wednesday from 77% on Tuesday, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.Economist Derek Tang of LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics said the Fed could already be recalibrating monetary policy to adapt to the expectations of a second Trump term."Their psychology might be, 'By cutting a little bit more slowly, that gives us a little bit more time to observe what's actually happening with inflation expectations and the labor market,'" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/trump-victory-raises-big-uncertainties-for-the-federal-reserve">Tang said.</a>Trump himself strongly advocated for the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively during his first term as President, and also said during his campaign that the President should have a say in monetary policy.With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term set to end in May 2026, the nomination of a new Fed chair who is open to lowering interest rates despite the potential for higher inflation could occur."President Trump has an easy pathway to nominating and installing a candidate that is more willing to accommodate his views on interest rate policy," ING's Knightley said.

One market's reaction to Trump's win shows the economy might not get the immediate relief many hope for     

Mumbai: Indian stock markets rallied on Monday after the <keyword id="20032950" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-led-government" source="keywords">BJP-led government</keyword> secured a majority in the latest state elections in Maharashtra. The <keyword id="20641216" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nifty-50" source="keywords">Nifty 50</keyword> index gained more than 1.45 per cent or 346.30 points to open at 24,253.55 points, while the BSE <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> index surged 1,076 points or 1.36 percent to open at 80,193.47 points. Experts noted that the election results have an impact on the markets today, and if past trends are followed, the markets may witness some rally amid the return of the BJP in the Maharashtra state elections. <keyword id="20161891" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ajay-Bagga" source="keywords">Ajay Bagga</keyword> Banking and Market Expert stated that "The just concluded elections in Maharashtra, the results of which were declared on November 23rd, will have a positive immediate impact on the stock markets. The landslide win for the BJP lead coalition in the Maharashtra state elections could lead to a short-term boost to the Indian stock markets which have been in a declining mode" He further added "Investors will interpret this mandate as favourable for the capex and infrastructure push that is ongoing in Maharashtra. The beneficiary sectors of this election are industrials, infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate and financials". In the sectoral indices on the National Stock Exchange, <keyword id="20065014" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-Realty" source="keywords">Nifty Realty</keyword> and <keyword id="19941314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-PSU-Bank" source="keywords">Nifty PSU Bank</keyword> rallied with a surge of more than 2 percent, while other major indices also gained more than 1.5 per cent, including Nifty Metal, Nifty Media, and Nifty Oil &amp; Gas. In the Nifty 50 list, 49 stocks gained during the opening session, while only one stock declined. Shri Finance opened as the top gainer in the Nifty 50. The shares of the AdGroup also surged around 2 percent at the time of filing this report. <keyword id="19967296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Green" source="keywords">Adani Green</keyword> also climbed around 4 percent. "We are most likely to break the falling 20-day average that lies at 24,030, which will be the first time that'd happen since the record high of 27th September. Seasonality trends between now and the end of the year have been historically positive, with the Nifty rising 80% of the time during this period with an average return of over 4 per cent" Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities. In other Asian markets, Japan and South Korea indices rallied. The Nikkei 225 index surged more than 1.5 percent, South Korea's Kospi also rose by 1.5 percent, Taiwan's Weighted Index was up by 0.48 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down marginally by 0.14 percent at the time of filing this report.

Nifty, Sensex rallied around 1.5 % after Maharashtra election results, Experts noted short term rally

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla stock reached a $1 trillion valuation on Friday for the first time since April 2022.</li><li>Tesla stock surged 27% since Trump's election win on Tuesday, boosting Elon Musk's net worth.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a> stock hit a $1 trillion market valuation for the first time since April 2022.The stock surged as much as 7% on Friday to an intra-day peak of $319.44, and shares have soared 27% since Donald Trump was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">declared the winner of Tuesday's presidential election.</a>Tesla CEO Elon Musk was a huge back of Trump's campaign in its final few months and donated over $100 million to efforts to reelect him.The massive gain in Tesla stock this week catapulted Musk to a net worth of about $300 billion, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wealthiest-people-in-world-net-worth-increase-trump-victory-stocks-2024-11">solidifying his position as the world's richest person,</a> according to Bloomberg data.Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said Trump's win, while potentially negative for the broader electric vehicle sector, could significantly benefit Tesla.That's because while federal EV rebates and tax incentives would likely be withdrawn during Trump's second term, Tesla can navigate such a scenario, while its competitors will likely struggle. "Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players (BYD, Nio, etc.) from flooding the US market over the coming years," Ives explained in a note this week.A potential wave of deregulation could also fast-track Tesla's Full Self-Driving platform to market. Tesla's premium valuation has largely hinged on its progress in delivering a fully autonomous vehicle, so investors would likely cheer any progress on that front.Shares of Tesla are up 26% year-to-date, in-line with gains of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100.</a>

Tesla hits a $1 trillion market cap after the stock rallies 27% following Trump's election win

In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market is hovering near record highs after getting a boost from Donald Trump's election win.</li><li>Bonds, meanwhile, have seen a sharp sell-off since the election.</li></ul>With market enthusiasm around Donald Trump's presidential election victory pushing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">stocks</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-record-price-outlook-crypto-trump-election-digital-assets-altcoins-2024-11">crypto</a> to record highs. JPMorgan says investors looking for signs of rally fatigue should be watching the Treasury bond market.In new research, the firm's equity-strategy team pinpointed the 5% level on the 10-year Treasury yield as a possible inflection point for US equities. It is currently trading at about 4.3%."We think that around 5% the impact of bond yields on equity valuations starts to turn, from positive/reflationary one, into the rising concerns over the sustainability of the upcycle and the increasing risk of accidents," the team, led by head of global equity strategy Mislav Matejka, wrote on Monday.Government-bond yields went on a tear following Trump's win on expectations that the president-elect's immigration and protectionist trade policies would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">drive inflation</a>, forcing the Federal Reserve to rate rates. The 10-year note surged as much as 21 basis points to 4.47% on November 6, the day after the election.Adding to upward pressure on bond yields is the prospect that so-called "bond vigilantes" could register their displeasure with a ballooning federal deficit by selling Treasurys."If the Trump administration runs excessively stimulative fiscal policy, with lots of spending and tax cuts, leading to even wider deficits, I think then that may cause the bond vigilantes to push yields up to levels that create problems for the economy," Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/09/business/dealbook/trump-economy-bonds.html">told DealBook</a> on November 9.In the absence of a move above 5% in the 10-year Treasury, JPMorgan says the market's near- to medium- term direction will be dictated by which policies Trump prioritizes.JPMorgan sees struggles in stocks if the elect's second term kicks off with immigration curbs and higher tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump focusing on tax cuts would be a stocks-positive outcome, the firm said.

JPMorgan says watch this market threshold for when the Trump bump in stocks will end

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's presidential win boosted his social media company, Tesla, and crypto stocks.</li><li>Banking stocks also gained, while clean-energy stocks tumbled.</li></ul>Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">boosted shares</a> of his social media company, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>'s Tesla, and a slew of cryptocurrency stocks in premarket trading on Wednesday.The former president's reelection sent renewable-energy stocks tumbling as traders bet his administration would be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-climate-policies-ev-subsidies-renewables-fossil-fuel-drilling-2024-7">less friendly</a> in terms of subsidies and regulation.Shares of Trump Media &amp; Technology Group surged as much as 62% to $55 as investors wagered Truth Social's parent company, which counts Trump as its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-truth-social-tmtg-stock-wealth-election-harris-x-2024-9">largest shareholder</a>, would benefit from his second term. The stock — which has Trump's initials, DJT, as its ticker — was trading 37% higher at last check.If the gain holds, Trump would be about $1.3 billion richer on paper given his near-53% stake in the company.Tesla stock rose 15% in premarket trading and was poised to open at its highest level in more than a year. Musk, the electric-vehicle maker's CEO, has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praises-elon-musk-a-star-is-born-2024-11">emerged</a> as one of Trump's most vocal champions and closest advisors.Crypto stocks jumped on the prospect of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-record-high-crypto-trump-trade-us-presidential-election-2024-11">friendlier US regulatory environment</a> under Trump. Coinbase and MicroStrategy both rose 13% in Wednesday's premarket. Bitcoin, the most popular crypto, climbed past $75,000 for the first time on election night before paring gains.<h2 id="b91524b5-c53d-4ab4-9fae-d43ef3d76f42">Boost for banks</h2>Conventional financial stocks also gained with Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Blackstone, and KKR rising between 6% and 9% in the US premarket.Traders expect Wall Street banks, asset managers, and private equity firms to benefit from tax cuts and deregulation under Trump.In contrast, clean-energy stocks slid with Plug Power, SunRun, First Solar, and Enphase Energy all dropping at least 10% in premarket trading. Danish wind turbine manufacturer Orsted and rival Vestas fell 10% and 8% respectively in Frankfurt trading.The declines likely reflect concerns that Trump's reelection will lead to the repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act passed by the Biden administration, which provided large-scale tax credits for renewable-energy providers.The broader stock market gained before the open with futures underlying the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 2.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.8%.

Trump Media, Tesla, and crypto stocks surge as Trump wins — and clean energy companies tumble

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This is an excerpt from the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>The future of the White House has been decided. So what does that mean for the rest of us?A pillar of President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was the economy and the work he would do to "fix it." He even adopted the slogan in the final days of election season.We have a few more months until he gets to work, but there are already indications of who will and won't <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">benefit financially from those plans</a>. Let's break it down:WinnersStock investors: The three major US indexes — S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial — surged to record highs as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11">Trump's return is considered a boon for the market</a>. The president-elect's plan to cut corporate taxes is probably the biggest catalyst for the rally. But the potential for deregulation, helped by a GOP-majority Senate and potentially House, is more wind for stocks' sails.Tesla shareholders: The EV giant took off with news of Trump's win, finishing the day up almost 15%. CEO Elon Musk's big bet on the former president has paid off, with one analyst describing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-tesla-shares-elon-musk-ev-president-2024-11">Trump's victory as a "home run" for Tesla</a>. Another said the regulatory hurdles Tesla faces with its autonomous driving technology could be expedited with Trump in office.Bitcoin believers: Trump was largely viewed as the more favorable option for digital currencies, and that's already playing out with <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bitcoin-price-btc-record-high-donald-trump-victory-presidential-election-2024-11">bitcoin reaching record highs and eclipsing the $75,000 mark</a> on Wednesday. The self-appointed "crypto president" has also helped the sector's stocks like Coinbase, which finished the day up more than 31%.LosersPeople hoping inflation stays low: Trump has hammered the current administration for the high inflation that plagued the country throughout 2022 and 2023. But most economists believe the president-elect's plan for a minimum <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">10% blanket tariff on most imported goods</a> will flare inflation back up. The tax meant to generate money for the US government is seen ultimately getting passed down to the US consumer, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">leading to higher prices</a>.Potential homebuyers: Inflation concerns could result in a tighter monetary policy, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">which means mortgage rates will stay high</a>. Bond yields are already soaring, indicating the market expects the cost of borrowing to keep rising. The 10-year US Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely track, spiked to 4.477%, its highest level since early July.Investors in Europe: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-presidency-impact-election-europe-economic-growth-gdp-goldman-sachs-2024-11">European growth stands to take a hit</a> from Trump's proposed tariffs, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank's analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region to 0.8% from 1.1% for next year, citing policy uncertainty arising from tariffs as a major cause. At least one European is happy, though. The French national Polymarket "whale" <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-48-million-profits-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">banked $48 million in profits</a> from their Trump election bet.The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

The market is already indicating the early winners and losers from Trump's win

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Trump election win will spur a Chinese stock sell-off that will then offer a buying opportunity, an equity strategist said.</li><li>Trump's track record shows he is not as anti-China as feared, Christopher Wood of Jefferies said.</li></ul>A presidential victory for Donald Trump will trigger a sell-off in Chinese stocks that would then create a buy-the-dip opportunity, Christopher Wood of Jefferies said.In a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-21/jefferies-wood-buy-china-stocks-dip-if-trump-wins-video">Bloomberg TV interview</a>, the global head of equity strategy said investors are excessively concerned by the Republican candidate's loud opposition to Beijing. He's far less pessimistic.While Trump has asserted that he will levy a 60% tariff rate on all Chinese imports to the US under his administration — part of a broader pledge to impose universal duties on all foreign products — Wood says it's largely bluster.He says critics are not paying attention to Trump's track record with China. In his view, the former president isn't likely to raise tariffs as much as he touts."Bottom line, if Donald Trump's elected and Chinese stocks collapse, that's an opportunity to add to China," he outlined.He continued: "People have forgotten that Donald Trump did the big trade deal with China in January 2020. A trade deal was done, and it was all hunky dory, and Donald Trump was going to run on that presidential campaign as I'm the guy who's negotiated the best trade deal with China since WTO."The agreement effectively <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/02/15/1079761270/china-promised-trump-a-better-deal-for-america-it-didnt-actually-deliver">capped further escalation to the 2018 trade war</a> between the US and China, requiring that Beijing buy an additional $200 billion of US exports.But that past precedent also shows that Trump is willing to negotiate with Beijing. For instance, he suggested that China would accept higher duties if Trump could relax restrictions on advanced US semiconductor technology. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-us-chip-export-restrictions-nvidia-ai-2024-8">Chip export controls</a> have increased on chips in recent years amid a rising concern for national security."[Trump's] not one of these national security guys in Washington who believe China is a threat to US hegemony," Wood said. "In fact, he's the opposite"Trump would likely view increased semiconductor trade as benefitting US business, as a cut-off Chinese market has already <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-china-competition-chip-makers-ai-huawei-2024-5">proven a challenge</a> for some leading chipmakers, such as Nvidia.

A Trump win will fuel a long-term buying opportunity in the Chinese market, stock chief says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Emerging markets stocks are set for their worst monthly decline since January. </li><li>The slump comes as investors price in higher odds of a Trump win in the upcoming US election.</li></ul>It's been a tough month for emerging market stocks as the odds of a Donald Trump election win rise — and with it, the odds that his proposed tariff plan will actually see the light of day. Emerging market stocks are headed for their worst monthly decline since January, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling for a fourth day on Thursday for a 3.1% decline this month.A select few EM stocks have taken the biggest hits, with Samsung, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan accounting for more than half of the index's fall. The decline comes as the market prices in higher odds of a win for former President Donald Trump with just two weeks until the election.On crypto betting market Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning soared as high as to 66% on Tuesday, their highest since President Joe Biden was still in the race in July. Odds are now slightly lower at 62%.Polls, meanwhile, are much closer, with the most recent national polling average compiled by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris">RealClearPolitics</a> showing Harris at 48.7% versus 48.5% for Trump.Trump has proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to as high as 20% and has said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">subject to a 60% tariff</a>.Investors' fears of a damaging trade war aren't unfounded. In 2018, Trump's trade war with China led to a significant underperformance compared to US stocks, and strategists say the election's outcome is again pushing investors away from EM shares as uncertainty builds. "US elections have become a key driver of uncertainty as risk positioning is clearly fluctuating to a more cautious stance. In our recent client interactions, we have sensed global EM investors' appetite to increase risk budgets over the next weeks may have been significantly reduced," analysts from Citi wrote in a note last week.The strategists note that the latest sentiment is a sharp contrast from a month ago, when investors were pricing in higher odds of a Harris win."There has been a significant change in investor sentiment, and investors' risk budgets have likely been changing as a function of that."Other factors, like rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a bond market sell-off, are also driving investors away from riskier assets. Investors are also expressing disappointment in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">China's stimulus measures</a>, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-stimulus-boosts-emerging-markets-stocks-2024-9">initially fueled a rally</a> in EM stocks last month.

Prospects of a Trump win and huge tariffs spark worst sell-off for emerging market stocks in 10 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election win sparked a surge in the S&amp;P 500, but risks from China loom.</li><li>China could significantly retaliate against Trump's proposed 60% tariff, Capital Economics said.</li></ul>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-trump-win-election-stock-market-outlook-strategy-2024-11">has zoomed higher</a> since President-elect Donald Trump's win last week, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> notching a quick 5% gain.Yet, while Trump's win opens the stock market to potentially more upside <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">via tax cuts and deregulation</a>, it also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-risk-outlook-trump-deportation-tariff-anthony-scaramucci-2024-11">makes it more vulnerable to other risks.</a>According to chief market economist John Higgins of Capital Economics, the biggest risk looming for the S&amp;P 500 is China, specifically, its potential reaction to another Trump trade war."Perhaps the biggest risk to the S&amp;P 500, given that a bubble in the index has been inflated by hype around AI, would be a retaliatory clampdown by China on US big-tech firms' operations in its territory," Higgins wrote in a Monday note.During his campaign trail, Trump proposed a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China, which would be a sharp escalation from the 25% tariffs he placed on a select list of goods during his first administration.If Trump's proposed 60% tariff against China is enacted and the country responds aggressively, it would likely pressure some of America's most important companies, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a>, which manufacture and sell their products in the country.China can do anything from restricting the sale of goods from American companies within its country to disrupting American companies' manufacturing operations.But Higgins believes that's an unlikely outcome, as an escalating trade war would hit China's already struggling economy."Retaliating in that way would undermine the image China has been trying to cultivate of a responsible superpower," Higgins said, adding that if it responds too aggressively to a second round of Trump tariffs, it could lose access to technologies that are integral to AI.Instead, China would likely take a more targeted approach in responding to a second round of Trump tariffs."We suspect China would retaliate in more subtle ways, such as restricting supply of rare earth metals and older generation semiconductor chips," Higgins said.

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