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<keyword id="21354159" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-government-bonds" source="keywords">Indian Government Bonds</keyword> are set to be included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index, <keyword id="20036608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emerging-Market" source="keywords">Emerging Market</keyword> (GBI-EM) from June 28. The inclusion will take place over a period of 10 months starting June 28, 2024, through to March 31, 2025. India will have a 1% weightage in the <keyword id="19967624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JPMorgan" source="keywords">JPMorgan</keyword> Emerging Market (EM) Bond index, which will gradually rise to 10% over a 10-month period, at an inclusion rate of about 1% weight per month. The inclusion is estimated to bring $20-25 billion of inflows into the Indian bond market. However, India's index-eligible bonds have already attracted $10 billion since the inclusion was announced in September last year. On September 21, 2023, Global index provider JPMorgan announced that it would include Indian government's bonds in its emerging market indices. Only Indian government bonds issued by the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) under the <keyword id="12313402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fully-Accessible-Route" source="Orion">Fully Accessible Route</keyword> (FAR) will be included in the indices. All FAR-designated IGBs maturing after December 31, 2026, will be eligible to be included in the JPMorgan Emerging Market (EM) Bond index. In the post-monetary policy press conference on June 7, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said the central bank is not worried about the big <keyword id="20072947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-inflows" source="keywords">foreign fund inflows</keyword> from global bond inclusion. "The RBI has a number of instrumentalities to manage the flows. We have managed it in the past and we will manage it in future also. No worries on that," Das said. Experts believe the index inclusion-related heavy flows is likely to boost demand for Indian government securities in the current fiscal, once short-term liquidity issues in certain papers get sorted. Vishal Gupta, Co-founder of IndiaBonds.com says the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan Index is a watershed moment for the <keyword id="22201110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-income-markets" source="keywords">fixed-income markets</keyword> in India. "This compulsorily puts Indian bond markets on the radar of global bond investors and although initial investments are supposed to be to the tune of $25-30 billion, index inclusion paves the way for this number to keep growing in the next few years," said Vishal Gupta. Gupta further added that it is important to grow the investor base for any market, and index inclusion helps in expanding the number of players, which further benefits everyone in the form of additional market liquidity. "Global investors have been looking to allocate capital to emerging markets given their reluctance to invest in other large countries like Russia or China in the past couple of years. Hence, the timing of this index inclusion is also almost perfect. I reckon investments will start via government bonds initially, but filter into AAA to lower credit ratings as well in the years to come", he continued.

Indian government bonds to be included JP Morgan Govt bond Index from June 28

<div type="image" title="The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books." agency="ANI" msid="114778648" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of <keyword id="113684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance" source="Orion">microfinance</keyword> and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, IndusInd Bank set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e. an NPA, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, RBI, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and <keyword id="20117932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navi-finserv" source="keywords">Navi Finserv</keyword> from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending instalments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honour any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its gross NPA for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. IDFC Bank’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in <keyword id="6051027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Unsecured-loan" source="Orion">unsecured loan</keyword>s, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. <keyword id="6376194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="Orion">Kotak Mahindra</keyword> Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical <keyword id="19897820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bollywood" source="keywords">Bollywood</keyword> headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist. However, that's a story for another day. Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or personal experience to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> requires an investment support of USD 1.4 trillion — an average of USD 28 billion per year — to become a net-zero economy by 2070 and raising <keyword id="20260327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-resources" source="keywords">financial resources</keyword> for adaptation and mitigation action of this scale is an "unprecedented challenge", according to the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Reaching net zero means achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of these gases removed from the atmosphere by either natural processes, such as photosynthesis, or by other methods of carbon capture and storage. The consolidated report on the state of the economy in the previous year said India's climate action has been largely financed through domestic resources and the flow of international finance has been "very limited". Citing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data, the report said bridging the "substantial funding gap" necessitates allocating 2.5 per cent of India's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to <keyword id="20018880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-finance" source="keywords">green finance</keyword>. "Preliminary estimates indicate that the aggregate investment support required by India to achieve its 2070 net-zero target will be USD 1.4 trillion at an average of USD 28 billion per year. Raising financial resources for <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> adaptation and mitigation actions of this scale is an unprecedented challenge," the document read. A 2022 report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that domestic sources accounted for the majority of green finance in India, at 87 per cent and 83 per cent in financial years 2019 and 2020 respectively. While international sources are increasing (from 13 per cent in FY 2019 to 17 per cent in FY 2020), the economic survey said they are still insufficient to meet India's net-zero target. "Mobilising substantial capital from traditional sources presents multifaceted challenges in emerging economies like India. The perceived sovereign risks associated with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the capital-intensive nature of such projects, coupled with lengthy gestation periods and evolving regulatory frameworks, can create misalignment between investor expectations and project timelines," the government said. The economic survey also noted that the flows of global capital to <keyword id="20200084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="developing-countries" source="keywords">developing countries</keyword> have been impeded by high costs of capital. Despite securing a good rating on its green-bond framework, Indian sovereign <keyword id="20177085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-bonds" source="keywords">green bonds</keyword> have hardly received any "greenium" from private investors. It is more a "wall of capital" than a "flood of capital" that is waiting to fund energy transition in EMDEs. It is just not mobile. All of these together have severely hampered the flow of finance for green-transition projects, the survey said. "Greenium" or green premium refers to the savings an issuer of a green bond realises on the associated coupon payment because the bond is green. Financial support to help middle-income and poor countries fight climate change will be at the centre of this year's UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the world will reach the deadline to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) -- the new amount developed nations must mobilise every year starting 2025 to support climate action in developing countries. But achieving consensus will not be easy, given the disappointing progress made on major conflict points at the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, delays in achieving this goal have eroded trust between developed and developing nations and have been a continual source of contention during annual climate negotiations. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing USD 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly USD 116 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 per cent of the money given in the form of loans. However, international non-profit organisation Oxfam last week said climate finance provided by rich countries in 2022 totalled no more than USD 35 billion. Developing nations argue that they cannot be expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions faster if developed countries -- historically responsible for climate change -- do not provide enhanced financial support. Rich countries are now expected to raise more than USD 100 billion, with developing countries, including India, demanding trillions of dollars to tackle climate change.

Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

Amid questions on the depleting <keyword id="20776807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="loan-to-deposit-ratio" source="keywords">loan-to-deposit ratio</keyword> in <keyword id="19895091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banks" source="keywords">Indian banks</keyword>, a recent report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword> suggests that the loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio is likely to subside on its own in the coming months. The debate on loan-to-deposit ratio (LD), particularly concerning sluggish <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> and potential risks to <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">financial stability</keyword> is raised by even the finance minister and the <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor" source="keywords">RBI governor</keyword>. However, the report notes that on closer examination, the situation may not be as alarming as it seems. As of 9th August, 2024 the Indian <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>'s loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio stood at 77.2 %, which is slightly below its recent peak of 78.2 % on 22nd March 2024, and its all-time high of 78.8 % in September 2013. The report stated that typically a rising LD ratio is indicative of a tightness in the banking sector, potentially indicating overheating. A lower LD indicates that the bank is aggressive in its credit disbursement practises, which could be risky. It highlighted that an analysis of the sector's transactions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), along with recent trends in the weighted average call rate (WACR), suggests that the current rise in the LD ratio does not indicate tightness, which is why there is no immediate cause of concern. In fact, the report added that the concern over weak deposit growth may be overstated. Historical data show that bank deposits grew at an average rate of 9.5 % during the pre-COVID period (January 2015 to February 2020) and 10.4 % in the post-COVID period (March 2020 to August 2024). Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also urged state-run banks to enhance deposit mobilization through attractive offers and focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Loan-to-deposit ratio pegs the total deposits received by the bank against the loans it has offered. It helps in understanding how liquid the bank is. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is a financial metric that compares a bank's total loans to its total deposits. It's used to assess a bank's liquidity and credit risk, and to inform lending and deposit-taking decisions The report said while the exact measures are unclear, the deposit growth could potentially be increased by making other asset classes less attractive through taxation or interest rates, or by boosting fiscal spending to increase net credit to the government. In its forecast, the report noted that private banks will witness a moderation in their <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>, while public sector banks will maintain a healthy credit growth rate. "Our analysis suggests that deposit growth could be raised by either making other asset classes unattractive (through taxation and/or interest rate) or increasing the growth in net credit to the government by pushing fiscal spending higher" the report added. Alternatively, policymakers might consider curtailing loan growth to lower the LD ratio. However, this could slow deposit growth, particularly if corporate credit growth remains weak. Encouraging savers to shift investments from other assets to bank deposits could also be an option, but this carries risks of overreach and potential damage to economic confidence. Das had also flagged the excessive growth, or froth developing in the personal loan space. Notably, while credit growth in unsecured personal loans like credit cards continues to decline, it remains elevated at 23.3% as of June 2024. However, this is a significant reduction from 34.2% witnessed in November 2023. As fiscal spending increases, bank credit to the government is likely to grow, which should elevate deposits and broad money supply. The report said "However, the extent of foreign capital inflows and the RBI's policy for managing these inflows remain uncertain". Last month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had also addressed this issue in the 50th meeting of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). Per him, deposit mobilisation has been lagging credit growth for some time now. This may potentially expose the system to structural liquidity issues. "While there could be a debate regarding ‘deposits funding loans’ vis-à-vis ‘loans funding deposits’, the current regulatory concern stems from the fact that there could be structural changes happening which banks need to recognise and, accordingly, devise their strategies. Households and consumers who traditionally leaned on banks for parking or investing their savings are increasingly turning to capital markets and other financial intermediaries", Das said. Per him, while bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of financial assets owned by households, their share has been declining consistently, since households are now increasingly allocating their savings to mutual funds, insurance funds, pension funds and other avenues.

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

<keyword id="20599258" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-consumers" source="keywords">Indian consumers</keyword> demonstrated a significant increase in their <keyword id="21084888" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="credit-card-spending" source="keywords">credit card spending</keyword> in July this year, marking a 19% increase compared to the same month last year. According to a report released by <keyword id="19945737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-Securities" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SBI Securities" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SBI Securities">SBI Securities</keyword>, the total expenditure by credit card users across the country reached an impressive Rs 1.7 trillion. This substantial uptick highlights the growing reliance on credit cards for transactions, reflecting broader economic trends and <keyword id="20740758" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-confidence" source="keywords">consumer confidence</keyword>. The report also highlighted a considerable increase in <keyword id="21118324" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="transaction-volumes" source="keywords">transaction volumes</keyword>, which surged by 39% year-on-year, reaching a total of 38.4 crore transactions in July 2024. This increase in the number of transactions underscores the widespread adoption and usage of credit cards as a preferred <keyword id="20632158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="payment-method" source="keywords">payment method</keyword> among Indian consumers. "Credit card spending in India increased 19% YoY to Rs 1.7 trillion in Jul'24. The transaction volume during the month was 38.4 crore, up 39% YoY" said the report. The report also noted that among the banks, <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC Bank</keyword> emerged as the leader in terms of transaction volumes, with its credit cards facilitating 9.9 crore transactions during the month. <keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword> followed closely with 7.1 crore transactions, while SBI secured the third position with 6.3 crore transactions. In terms of transaction value, HDFC Bank again led the way, with a total spend of Rs 44,369 crore through its credit cards in July. ICICI Bank and SBI followed with Rs 34,566 crore and Rs 26,878 crore, respectively. The report said "In Jul'24, transaction volumes was led by cards issued by HDFC Bank (9.9 crore) followed by ICICI Bank (7.1 crore) and SBI (6.3 crore)". Additionally, the <keyword id="22988051" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="average-transaction-value" source="keywords">average transaction value</keyword> (ATV) also saw a marginal increase of 1.4% month-on-month in July 2024. This marks the first increase in ATV in ten months, suggesting a shift in consumer behaviour towards higher-value transactions after a period of stagnation. Overall, these figures reflect the growth of credit card usage in India, driven by increased consumer confidence and the convenience offered by credit card transactions.

Indians credit card spending increases 19% YoY to Rs 1.7 trillion in July 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>BlackRock's Rick Rieder says there are "no sellers" in the equity market.</li><li>Stocks will keep rising despite soaring market valuations, he told Yahoo Finance.</li></ul>Even with stock-market valuations hovering <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crazy-town-valuation-mania-sp500-barry-bannister-2024-11">near generational highs</a>, BlackRock's bond chief highlighted one key reason why stocks can continue higher."There's no sellers," Rick Rieder — the firm's global CIO of fixed income — said at a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjz_kTaO5pA">Yahoo Finance conference</a>.On the buying side, momentum is abundant, even as the prospect of persistently high interest rates boosts the appeal of the money-market funds."You think about the amount of money that comes into 401(k)s, wealth, salary — X percent goes into equities, and there's no sellers," he said.Rieder added that corporate buybacks are also backstopping stock market prices. Big companies have bought a trillion dollars worth of their own shares, he noted, shrinking the equity supply and pushing per-share values higher."So you shrink the denominator because they're buying back a bunch of their stock, and there's no sellers," Rieder said.He sees this more than offsetting any valuation pressures, even with one S&amp;P 500 adjusted-earnings ratio close to the highest it's been in the last century, according to new research from Deutsche Bank.And although Rieder sees current valuations as stretched, he added that market multiples could return to reasonable levels if earnings rise significantly higher."People want — myself included — want the multiple lower. But boy, it's pretty hard," he said. "If there's no egregious piece of news, geopolitical, et cetera, the natural migration is to higher prices."To be sure, Rieder himself has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">previously noted impending risks</a>, previously forecasting that US debt could lead to a market shakeup. But this won't be an immediate threat."I think markets tend to react to the shark closest to the boat," Rieder said last week. "The shark on the debt dynamic is not going to be next to the boat in January or February, but it is going to get next to the boat sometime. I don't know if it's the latter part of 2025 or the beginning of 2026 unless they address the size of the spending dynamics, the amount of debt we're issuing, and, then obviously, inflation relative to that."

BlackRock's bond chief explains why stocks will keep charging higher despite stretched valuations

With credit off-take increasing, <keyword id="36838" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-banks" source="Orion">Indian banks</keyword> are expected to issue bonds to maintain their capital levels and support their advances while cost of funds -- deposits and borrowings are likely to increase, said CARE Ratings. "To support credit-off take, banks are expected to shore up their liability franchise by raising capital (<keyword id="2542652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="AT1-bonds" source="Orion">AT1 bonds</keyword>, other debt instruments such as infrastructure bonds) and deposits. The market has been facing lower liquidity and elevated inflation, hence borrowing costs for deposits and the cost of raising capital are expected to increase," the credit rating agency said in a report. The banks are increasing their interest rates for deposits and plans for bonds issue. Further, profitability is also expected to support the capital base of the banks. Overall, the <keyword id="4960825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="scheduled-commercial-banks" source="Orion">scheduled commercial banks</keyword> (SCB) are expected to remain adequately capitalised in the near term. All SCBs have maintained their Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) greater than the minimum required level for Q3FY23. The median CAR and Common Equity Tier 1 (CET-1) ratio of SCBs witnessed a rise in Q3FY23 over Q3FY22 and Q3FY21, the report notes. According to CARE Ratings, the net profit of SCBs grew by 45 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to Rs 0.65 lakh crore in Q3FY23 driven by a higher pre-provisioning operating profit (PPOP) growth compared to a lower growth in provisions. The net interest income growth and stability in non-interest income helped PPOP to grow by 28.5 per cent y-o-y to Rs 1.30 lakh crore in Q3Y23. Meanwhile, provisions rose by 9.1 per cent to Rs 0.38 lakh crore. Public sector banks' net profit rose by 64.3 per cent y-o-y to Rs 0.29 lakh crore in Q3FY23, meanwhile private sector banks' grew by 32.2 per cent y-o-y to reach Rs 0.35 lakh crore in Q3FY23, the report added. Return on Assets of SCBs improved by 28 bps y-o-y to 1.23 per cent. At present, banks are in a better position after navigating the Covid period and managing mounted NPAs. Healthy credit growth, improvement in asset quality, and lower growth in provisions due to lower incremental slippages and reduction in restructuring books are expected to generate healthy net profit growth. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/presumptive-taxation-the-scheme-that-eases-burden-on-small-businesses/articleshow/98183636.cms">Presumptive taxation: The scheme that eases burden on small businesses</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/elephant-will-not-march-but-run-powered-by-private-consumption-union-amc/articleshow/98182584.cms">Elephant will not march but run, powered by private consumption: Union AMC</a>

Indian banks to issue bonds to maintain capital levels: CARE Ratings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's bond traders are still piling into the safe-haven asset, despite recent stimulus efforts.</li><li>The 30-year government bond yield hit its lowest since 2005 last week, and fell again Monday amid more measures.</li></ul>While Chinese stocks have roared on Beijing's stimulus jolt, the country's bond market shows there's still lingering skepticism.Early last week, policymakers announced a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">string of measures</a> including interest-rate cuts, liquidity support, and reduced bank reserve requirements. Stocks loved it, with China's CSI 300 index soaring 16% for its best week since 2008.But the bond market seemed less convinced by the attempted stimulus, with the 30-year government bond yield falling the next day to a level close to its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/china-bonds-flash-japanification-warning-despite-stimulus-plan?sref=LspfQlRv">lowest since 2005</a>. In theory, if fixed-income investors had been placated, they would've left behind the relative safety of bonds, pushing yields higher. Instead the opposite happened.The same dynamic played out on Monday, following more pointed efforts from China to address a flagging property market. Three of the nation's largest cities loosened rules for homebuyers, while the People's Bank of China also moved to lower mortgage rates.The moves sent stock soaring once again, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-boost-economy-stock-market-bazooka-stimulus-sentiment-rally-pboc-2024-9">CSI 300 climbing 8.5%</a> for its best day since 2008. And once again, bond yields on 30-year government debt slipped 8 basis points to 2.36%. While that's above the multi-year low of 2.14% seen last week, it's still a surprising directional move.Investors may be reacting to the widely held view that — despite the size and scope of China's stimulus moves — they still might not be enough. The country is plagued by deflation, low consumption, and a real-estate debt crisis. While added liquidity may bolster confidence in the equity market, analysts say it does little to repair core issues. Instead, China should <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stimulus-stock-market-consumer-deflation-outlook-real-estate-2024-9">spend more on its consumers</a>."Net supply of government bonds went up significantly in August to CNY1.85tn, driven by larger issuances from both the central and local governments," Bank of America wrote in mid-September. "Until we see a meaningful step-up in fiscal stimulus to stabilize consumption and the property market, the downward trend of rates is unlikely to reverse."Supportive measures could either include an upward revision to China's fiscal deficit target or the issuance of special refinancing bonds by local governments, it said.

China's bond market seems skeptical that recent stimulus will be enough

<ul class="summary-list"><li>"The real wave of distress is just starting" for commercial property debt, Pimco's John Murray told Bloomberg.</li><li>He warned that bank failures could jump amid high exposure to commercial property loans.</li></ul>A "very high" concentration of distressed commercial real estate loans will be drive another spate of bank failures, Pimco's global head of real estate, John Murray, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/pimco-warns-of-more-regional-bank-failures-on-commercial-property-pain?cmpid=BBD061124_OUS&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_term=240611&amp;utm_campaign=openamericas">Bloomberg</a>."The real wave of distress is just starting," Murray said. Ever since interest rates spiked two years ago, heavy attention has been paid to commercial real estate as doubt grows over property owners' ability to refinance debt. Defaults have risen across the sector amid higher borrowing costs and slumping demand, with the latter especially true for office buildings, which have struggled against remote work trends. This week, Fitch Ratings <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/office-crash-commercial-real-estate-crisis-debt-2008-vacancy-rate-2024-6">revised its office delinquency forecasts</a> up to 8.4% and 11% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.The main lenders to the sector have been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/28-banks-with-the-highest-commercial-real-estate-risk-2024-3">mid-sized regional banks</a>, and worries of fallout have intensified on Wall Street. According to Bloomberg, regional lenders who jumped into real estate have watched assets fall to a fraction of their peak value."As stressed loans grow due to maturities, however, we expect that banks will start selling these more challenged loans to reduce their troubled loan exposures," Murray said, adding that Pimco has loaded up on the loans being sold off by other institutions.The distress is already apparent in markets. Early this month, shares of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/ax-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Axos Financial</a> fell 15% after a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/axos-financial-stock-price-selloff-hindenburg-research-short-seller-trump-2024-6">short seller targeted the bank's commercial real estate loan exposure. New York Community Bancorp plummeted in February</a> after its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-community-bank-nycb-shares-turmoil-ceo-internal-controls-crisis-2024-3">unexpected quarterly loss</a> was partially tied to exposure to the property market.Meanwhile, major dealers benefit from some protection, given post-2008 regulation that limits their CRE lending capacity, Murray told Bloomberg. But even with guardrails in place, bigger lenders are pulling away from the industry, amid the rise in defaults, he noted.At the same time, a study recently outlined that big banks may be more exposed to a potential meltdown than typically understood, given <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commerical-real-estate-crisis-bank-debt-contagion-reits-cre-lending-2024-5">indirect lending</a> via credit lines to real estate investment trusts. These funds are also shaking under the weight of the property sector, as REIT investors are quickly pulling out.Murray added that non-bank US debt funds are also an issue, given that they're responsible for over $200 billion in loans that are set to mature next year.

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