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<ul><li>We've reached peak globalisation, says Capital Economics, and emerging economies like China will suffer.</li><li>That means the widespread assumption that China will leapfrog the US for the title of the world's biggest economy is likely wrong. </li><li>"If we're right, then the world in 2050 will look very different to what the consensus expects," the economists said.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/international?r=US&amp;IR=T">Visit Business Insider for more stories.</a></li></ul>We've reached peak globalization, says Capital Economics - "In fact, a period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely."The group's economists, in a note on Monday titled, "The world in 2050: where and why the consensus may be wrong," wrote that the fallout would hit emerging economies the hardest. "A rollback of globalisation would counteract any technology-driven pick-up in productivity growth over the next decade or so," says Neil Shearing, group chief economist.The takeaway: "The widespread assumption that China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy is likely to be proved wrong."Market watchers have predicted the boom in China's economy as an unstoppable Goliath that will soon leapfrog the US to the No. 1 spot. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-to-fall-behind-china-within-a-year-standard-chartered-says-2019-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">Standard Chartered last year predicted that the US in 2020 would lose its crown</a>, saying it's unlikely to ever become the most powerful economy again once it slips behind. By 2030, the bank said at the time, Asian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will account for about 35% of global growth, up from 28% in 2018 and 20% in 2010.That optimism has fizzled, Capital Economics said. The promise of new technologies driving productivity growth may happen, but be "unevenly spread.""While most developed markets should start to see an improvement in productivity growth by the end of this decade, productivity growth in most emerging markets will continue to be held back by a variety of structural problems," the economists wrote. "These structural problems are most obvious in China but are also evident in other large emerging economies including Brazil, Russia and Mexico.""If we're right, then the world in 2050 will look very different to what the consensus expects," Capital Economics said. "While Italy will lose its place in world's 10 largest economies, France, Germany and the UK will keep theirs; while India and Indonesia will shoot up the rankings, they will be the exception rather than the norm in the emerging world." <a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/clients/publications/global-economics/long-term-global-economic-outlook/em-catch-up-to-slow-as-globalisation-stalls/">Capital Economics explained its reasoning in a note on January 10</a>: "The process of reform and market liberalisation has stalled in many large emerging markets, and some of the previous gains from opening up to international trade could be lost, as the current wave of globalisation ends."Using purchasing power parity exchange rates - a way of measuring prices in different regions - instead of GDP, China already is in the top spot of the world's economies, <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/WEOWORLD/ADVEC/CHN/USA">according to the IMF.</a> The US comes second and India is third.<a href="https://www.capitaleconomics.com/clients/publications/global-economics/long-term-global-economic-outlook/em-catch-up-to-slow-as-globalisation-stalls/"></a>

Here's why China won't overtake the US as the largest economy anytime soon

<ul><li>Speaking at a FICCI event, <keyword id="2665691" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Niti-Aayog">Niti Aayog</keyword> CEO <keyword id="6358887" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="amitabh-kant">Amitabh Kant</keyword> said India’s <keyword id="2966117" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="circular-economy">circular economy</keyword> will create 14 million jobs in the next 5-7 years. </li><li>India is already a leader in circular economy investments. </li><li>Sustainable development and resource circularity is an inescapable necessity today.</li></ul>Amidst India’s looming job crisis, the country’s circular economy will create 14 millions in the next 5-7 years, said Amitabh Kant, CEO of think tank NITI Aayog. Circular economy refers to an economic system which prioritizes waste management and maximum utilization of resources. “By 2050, world population would reach 9.7 billion of which 3 billion people would prosper to middle class consumption level. This would require 71% more resources per capita, thereby raising total mineral and material demand from 50 billion tonnes in 2014 to 130 billion tonnes in 2050,” said Kant, speaking at an event by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). Between economy and ecology Kant also pointed out that India is the fourth largest producer of e-waste in the world. He also suggested that India needs a reconciliation between economy and ecology. Sustainable development and resource circularity is an inescapable necessity today said the NITI Aayog CEO. The effects of avoiding optimum utilization of resources will be high as well. “The corresponding economic impact of these current trends could induce price volatility and supply chain interruptions in critical and strategic materials, leaving a $4.5 trillion loss in global economic growth which could rise to $25 trillion by 2050,” he added. According to a <a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/india-leading-among-developing-nations-in-circular-economy-investments-chatham-house/69447351">report</a> released by London’s Chatham House, India is leading in circular economy investments made by developing nations. The report says that India can save $218 billion of its GDP by promoting circular economy. India’s urban population of over 377 million generate 62 million tonnes of municipal solid waste every year, according to a report by <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/waste/india-s-challenges-in-waste-management-56753">Down to Earth</a>, Meanwhile, India’s waste management industry is <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/17/1805220/0/en/India-14-Bn-Waste-to-Energy-and-Waste-Management-Market-to-2025.html">reported </a>to have reached $14 billion by 2025. See Also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/Heres-how-much-an-IT-employee-makes-in-different-countries/articleshow/69739244.cms">Here’s how much an IT employee makes in different countries</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india-draft-national-education-policy-one-common-admission-entrance-test/articleshow/69825504.cms">India may have one common exam for all college admissions – if the draft National Education Policy is passed</a>

India can create 14 million jobs by investing in sustainable development

In 2024, the <keyword id="7952869" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="largest-economies-in-the-world" source="Orion">largest economies in the world</keyword> are the United States, China, Germany, Japan, and India, based on their GDP. GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is an important measure of how big a country's economy is. One common way to calculate GDP is by adding up all the money spent on new consumer goods, new investments, government spending, and the value of exports minus imports. This article will look at the <keyword id="22151442" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ten-biggest-economies" source="Orion">ten biggest economies</keyword> in the world in 2024, according to <a href="https://www.forbesindia.com" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, based on their GDP. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="World's largest economies by GDP" comment="subhead" text="World's largest economies by GDP">World's <keyword id="8471222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="largest-economies-by-GDP" source="Orion">largest economies by GDP</keyword></cmsannotation> <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Country </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">GDP (USD billion) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">GDP Per Capita (USD thousand) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">United States Of America (U.S.A) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">28,783 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">85.37 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">China </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">18,536 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">13.14 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Germany </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4,590 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">54.29 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Japan </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4,112 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">33.14 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">India </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,942 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2.73 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">United Kingdom (U.K.) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,502 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">51.07 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">France </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,132 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">47.36 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Brazil </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2,333 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">11.35 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Italy </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2,332 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">39.58 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Canada </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2,242 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.62499975pt;vertical-align:middle;background-color:#ffffff;padding:6pt 6pt 6pt 6pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">54.87 </td></tr></tbody></table> <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="1. United States of America (U.S.A.)" comment="subhead" text="1. United States of America (U.S.A.)">1. United States of America (U.S.A.)</cmsannotation> The United States has been the world's largest and richest economy since 1960. Its economy is very diverse, with important sectors like services, manufacturing, finance, and technology driving its growth. The country benefits from a large consumer market, encourages innovation and entrepreneurship, has a strong infrastructure, and offers good business conditions. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2. China" comment="subhead" text="2. China">2. China</cmsannotation> China's economy has grown significantly, rising from fourth place in 1960 to second place today. Its economy mainly relies on manufacturing, exports, and investment. China benefits from a large workforce, strong government support, improved infrastructure, and a rapidly growing consumer market. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="3. Germany" comment="subhead" text="3. Germany">3. Germany</cmsannotation> Germany's economy is heavily based on exports and is famous for its expertise in engineering, automotive, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries. It benefits from a skilled workforce, strong research and development, and a strong focus on innovation. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="4. Japan" comment="subhead" text="4. Japan">4. Japan</cmsannotation> Japan's economy is known for its advanced technology, strong manufacturing, and service industries. Key sectors include automotive, electronics, machinery, and finance. Japan is also recognised for its strong work ethic, innovative technology, and high-quality exports. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="5. India" comment="subhead" text="5. India">5. India</cmsannotation> India is the 5th largest economy in the world in 2024. Its economy is diverse and growing quickly, driven by key sectors like information technology, services, agriculture, and manufacturing. India benefits from a large domestic market, a young and tech-savvy workforce, and a growing middle class. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="6. United Kingdom (U.K.)" comment="subhead" text="6. United Kingdom (U.K.)">6. United Kingdom (U.K.)</cmsannotation> The United Kingdom's economy includes a mix of services, manufacturing, finance, and creative industries. London is a global financial centre that attracts foreign investments. Trade partnerships and globalisation also contribute to the UK's economic growth. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="7. France" comment="subhead" text="7. France">7. France</cmsannotation> France's economy is diverse, focusing on industries like aerospace, tourism, luxury goods, and agriculture. France is known for its strong social welfare system, good infrastructure, and significant investment in research and development. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="8. Italy" comment="subhead" text="8. Italy">8. Italy</cmsannotation> Italy has a well-developed economy and is the third-largest in the European Union. The country is known for its strong and innovative business sector, as well as its competitive and hardworking agricultural industry. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="9. Brazil" comment="subhead" text="9. Brazil">9. Brazil</cmsannotation> Brazil's economy includes many sectors like agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and services. It's well-known globally for its agriculture, which means growing and selling crops and exporting them. The economy grows because of things like how much things cost, how much people in the country buy, and how well they build roads and buildings. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="10. Canada" comment="subhead" text="10. Canada">10. Canada</cmsannotation> Canada's economy depends a lot on its plentiful natural resources like oil, gas, minerals, and timber. It also has a strong services sector, which means businesses that provide services rather than goods, a well-developed manufacturing industry, and a strong commitment to encouraging new ideas and improvements in technology. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/article/top-10-most-richest-women-in-the-world/articleshow/110941545.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Top 10 richest women in the world in 2024</a>

Top 10 largest economies in the world in 2024

<ul><li>This year will likely be remembered for marking its emergence as the world's most populous nation.</li><li>By 2050, the UN expects <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> will have 1.6 billion residents and China 1.3 billion.</li><li>A growing working-age population is an important source of economic growth, so India's emergence will give it new power in international politics.</li></ul> If any major middle-income country is truly outperforming in the coming decades, it's the world's soon-to-be third largest economy (and its largest democracy), India, Eurasia Group said in a report. "In my view, 2023 will be remembered for India's emergence as the third pole of the world," wrote <keyword id="15992875" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shigesaburo-okumura" source="Orion">Shigesaburo Okumura</keyword>, Editor-in-Chief of Nikkei Asia, in a recent article. Another important factor not to be neglected is India. This year will likely be remembered for marking its emergence as the world's most populous nation, Okumara wrote. According to the UN, China's population last year was 1.426 billion while India's was 1.417 billion. In July, the UN forecast that China's population would fall in 2023 while India's would surpass it. By 2050, the UN expects India will have 1.6 billion residents and China 1.3 billion. A growing working-age population is an important source of economic growth, so India's emergence will give it new power in international politics, Okumara said. Moreover, decoupling between the US and China and the rebuilding of technology supply chains to exclude China benefits India. <keyword id="6354427" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="apple" source="Orion">Apple</keyword> is building iPhone 14s in India. <keyword id="292865" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="natarajan-chandrasekaran" source="Orion">Natarajan Chandrasekaran</keyword>, chairman of <keyword id="46894" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="tata-sons" source="Orion">Tata Sons</keyword>, has talked of plans to produce semiconductors in the subcontinent. In March, India will host the plenary session of the <keyword id="833063" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="trilateral-commission" source="Orion">Trilateral Commission</keyword> for the first time. This year, it is also chairing the Group of 20, a role that will involve a leaders' summit and many ministerial meetings. The Modi government will be eager to show leadership ahead of India's own elections in 2024, Okumara wrote. "The new year thus could mark the beginning of a tripolar world, involving the US, China and India. New Delhi is undeniably on the rise," Okumara concluded. <keyword id="47256" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="challenges" source="Orion">Challenges</keyword>, however, are mounting for India's economy with the GDP forecast at a half-century low. Motilal Oswal Financial Services forecast in a note that after growing strongly for two consecutive years, India's real GDP growth would decelerate to 5.2 per cent YoY in FY24, while nominal GDP growth would weaken even sharply to 7-7.5 per cent, led by easing inflation. A combination of factors such as slower global economy, fading pent-up demand and normalising base effects would contribute to slower real growth. With an expected retail inflation print at just 4.3 per cent and a mere 1 per cent growth in the wholesale price index (<keyword id="46000" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="wpi" source="Orion">WPI</keyword>) in FY24, the GDP deflator could be around 2 per cent, dragging down India's nominal GDP growth to the lowest level compared to any year between the early 1970s and FY19 (that is, half-a-century pre-Covid period), the report said. Such slow growth rate would have some serious implications for the macro economy and financial markets. "Overall, we believe that unlike the past 12-15 months, the narrative will reverse in FY24. Inflation concerns will take a back seat and growth worries will resurface. This may be true not only for India, but also for the entire global economy. At the same time, restrictive monetary policy will fail to boost financial markets. Accordingly, CY23 could be very painful," the report said. Revenue of listed companies is highly correlated with nominal GDP growth (and WPI-inflation). In case of single-digit nominal GDP growth, corporate sales growth is also expected to weaken from an average of &gt;30 per cent YoY in the past seven quarters to single digits in FY24. With an expectation of weaker nominal GDP growth in FY24, we estimate India's debt growth to also weaken. Thus, bank credit growth could also moderate from 15-16 per cent in FY23 to 12 per cent in FY24 with a downward bias, the report said. As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that would do them lasting harm, according to a comprehensive new study by the <keyword id="6354424" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="world-bank" source="Orion">World Bank</keyword> in September. Several historical indicators of global recessions are already flashing warnings. The global economy is now in its steepest slowdown following a post-recession recovery since 1970. Global consumer confidence has already suffered a much sharper decline than in the run-up to previous global recessions. The world's three largest economies -- United States, China, and the Euro zone -- have been slowing sharply. The experience of the 1970s, the policy responses to the 1975 global recession, the subsequent period of stagflation, and the global recession of 1982 illustrate the risk of allowing inflation to remain elevated for long while growth is weak. The 1982 global recession coincided with the second-lowest growth rate in developing economies over the past five decades, second only to 2020. It triggered more than 40 debt crises and was followed by a decade of lost growth in many developing economies, the World Bank said. India's current account deficit expectedly swelled to a 37-quarter high of $36.4 billion (4.4 per cent of GDP) in Q2 FY23 from $18.2 billion in Q1 FY23 (2.2 per cent of GDP). The resulting net balance of payments (BoP) position registered a deficit of $30.4 billion (3.7 per cent of GDP), its weakest since the 2008 global financial crisis, compared to a surplus of $4.6 billion in Q1 FY23, Acuite Ratings said. Amid an uncertain geopolitical environment and slowing global growth, however, risks will remain on both current account balance and capital flows, it said. With excessive demand supply disparities, bloated supply chain management and battle against inflation weighing down on global economic growth, the New Year started on a gloomy outlook as IMF predicts global GDP growth topping at 2.7 per cent, narrowly escaping recession, Nuvama Professional Clients Group said in a note. The economy has been supported by sturdy domestic demand as indicated in GST collections and consumer spending. However, the industrial output contracted by 4 per cent YoY in October, the worst in over two years, hobbled by the drop in orders from western markets and weak investment at home, the note said. Standard Chartered said in a report that 2023 global macroeconomic backdrop is likely to be challenging given the heightened risk of a slowdown as lagged effects of monetary policy tightening leads to a weaker demand scenario and lower corporate earnings performance. As the monetary policy rate cycle peaks amid receding inflationary pressures in the second half of the year, risk sentiment could improve with the growth outlook stabilising. "In our assessment," the bank noted, "India's growth-inflation dynamics is stable and better than its peers." The post-pandemic economic recovery cycle remains strong amid supportive government policies and a pick-up in investments. Further, the likely broadening of the rural economy's recovery and of the service sectors is a strong tailwind, the note said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/indias-startup-economy-stares-at-deepening-funding-winter-in-2023/articleshow/96807902.cms">India's startup economy stares at deepening funding winter in 2023</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/ar-rahman-unknown-facts-about-about-indian-composer-and-oscar-winner/articleshow/96793884.cms">AR Rahman can leave dinner midway if inspiration strikes &amp; other anecdotes about the reticent music maestro</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/india-mulls-2nd-covid-booster-even-as-coverage-of-first-dose-remains-feeble/articleshow/96792098.cms">India mulls 2nd Covid booster even as coverage of first dose remains feeble</a>

India could emerge as the third pole despite GDP growth worries say experts

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>An extensive study done <a href="http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/#projected-growth-map" target="_blank">by the Pew Research Center </a>has yielded some fascinating information regarding the trajectory of world religions over the next four decades. As of 2010, Christianity was the dominant world religion with roughly 2.2 billion adherents and Muslim's were second with about 1.6 billion adherents. If current demographic trends continue however, Islam is expected to catch up to Christianity midway through the 21st century.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Pew Research Center" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/553fb6a9ecad0449510ff12a-960/religion2.png"></div></div>In North America, the fastest growing religious groups are Muslims and followers of "other religions" (an umbrella category that includes Baha'is, Jains, Sikhs, Taoists and many smaller faiths). Christianity is expected to decline from 78 percent of the overall population in 2010 to 66 percent in 2050.Here's what the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-religious-makeup-of-america-2013-12">dominant religious groups in the US</a> are by county:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div> Unaffiliated religions are expected to rise over that same time from 16 percent of the population to 26 percent. By 2050, the United States will have more Muslims (2.1 percent of pop.) than Jews (1.4 percent).In South America and the Caribbean, Christianity will see a slight dip over the next four decades, from 90 percent in 2010 t0 89 percent in 2050. Over that same time the religiously unaffiliated population will add 45 million followers increasing from 8 percent of the population in 2010 to 9 percent in 2050.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>If the current trends continue beyond 2050 - which is a big if considering unforeseen events that can happen over a 40 year span (war, famine, innovation etc.) - then by the year 2070 the world's population of Muslims would roughly equal that of Christians.Here are other chief findings from the report:1. Islam will grow faster than any other religion over the next 40 years.2. The number of Muslims will equal the number of Christians around the world by 2050. 3. Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion - though increasing in countries such as the United States and France - will make up a declining share of the world's total population.4. The global Buddhist population will be about the same size it was in 2010, while the Hindu and Jewish populations will be larger than they are today.5. In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population.6. India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.7. In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050, and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.8. Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa.<h2><a href="http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/#projected-growth-map">Check out the full report &gt;</a></h2> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/inspiration-for-lord-of-the-light-game-of-thrones-2015-4">The religion that's changing everything on 'Game of Thrones' right now</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="xicjFwdDowAt7Qq98CN9_KyWxC40t7uR" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Christians are leaving the faith in droves and the trend isn't slowing down

<keyword id="15567765" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Apple-iPhone-supplier-Foxconn" source="Orion">Apple iPhone supplier Foxconn</keyword> has paused its hiring because of four-day quarantine space shortage. The company requires 1,00,000 new workers to get back to full capacity, but due to a shortage of quarantine space, it has frozen the hiring, reports AppleInsider. A Covid-19 outbreak at <keyword id="6354671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foxconn" source="Orion">Foxconn</keyword> caused a large departure of workers, thus the iPhone supplier has started hiring heavily to resume normal production. Lockdowns and other restrictions have caused problems for the company, which has impacted shipping times for the iPhone 14. There is no more room for the four-day quarantine that each new employee must undergo before joining the workforce, the report said. In October this year, a report claimed that Apple supply chain was facing its next set of problems in China as panicked workers at the Foxconn factory in Zhengzhou city were leaving amid fresh Covid scare. Fearing Covid lockdowns, workers were seen fleeing the factory on foot and walking in fields and on highways as public transport was suspended as part of Covid-19 controls. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/keystone-realtors-ipo-heres-how-you-can-check-the-allotment-status/articleshow/95631181.cms">Keystone Realtors IPO : Here’s how you can check the allotment status</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/india-on-course-to-become-worlds-second-largest-economy-by-2050-says-gautam-adani/articleshow/95622223.cms">India on course to become world’s second largest economy by 2050, says Gautam Adani</a>

Foxconn freezes hiring due to shortage of quarantine space

<ul><li>The <keyword id="6354424" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-bank">World Bank</keyword> expect that <keyword id="3658" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>’s GDP could fall by 2.8 percentage points by 2050 as a result of the change in rainfall patterns and a 1.5-3°C rise in temperatures</li><li>In addition, living standards for half of India’s population are expected to deteriorate at current rates.</li><li>The states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and <keyword id="13126" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maharashtra">Maharashtra</keyword> will bear the brunt of <keyword id="6361617" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change">climate change</keyword>. </li></ul> While a recent <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28723/9781464811555.pdf?sequence=5&amp;isAllowed=y">report</a> by the World Bank states the obvious - that climate change will be harmful for India’s future economic growth and development - it adds some concerning quantifiable predictions to the mix. The institution’s economists expect that India’s gross domestic product could fall by 2.8 percentage points by 2050 as a result of the change in rainfall patterns and a 1.5-3°C rise in temperatures. In addition, despite predictions that the future will bring about a vast improvement in living standards due to technology, climate change could actually cause living standards for half of India’s population to deteriorate and income inequality to increase further in the next three decades. This is largely due to the fact that underdeveloped areas, or “hotspots” and the 600 million people living in them will bear the brunt of climate change. Higher temperatures will result in lower crop yields as well as lower labour productivity in sectors that involve outdoor work like farming and construction. Lower agricultural productivity will translate into lower per capita consumption levels, which are used as a proxy for living standards in this report. The areas in India that are the most vulnerable to climate change are in the north, central and northwest part of India. Specifically, the states of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh will see the largest decline in living standards - around 9% - followed by Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and India’s richest state, Maharashtra. In fact, seven out of the 10 most vulnerable districts are in Maharashtra. Current mitigation measures are ineffective A major point of concern is that these changing climate patterns are well underway. Even if India were to impose measures as required by the Paris Climate Agreement in late 2015, temperatures will still rise by as much as 2°C by 2050, as per the report. Earlier this month, The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI) found that India had lost <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/2-5-of-gdp-india-s-annual-economic-loss-due-to-degraded-land-in-2014-15-118060300061_1.html">2.5% of its GDP</a> in 2014-15 due to the degradation of agricultural land. The World Bank suggested a number of structural fixes to prevent some of the aforementioned consequences from taking place. These include diversifying the economy - or reducing India’s economic reliance on agriculture - improving <keyword id="76687" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Irrigation">irrigation</keyword> infrastructure to reduce water stress and developing skilling programs to allow the migration of workers to non-farming sectors The report concludes by stating that India doesn’t have the luxury of choosing not to do anything, estimating that it will lose $1.2 trillion as a result of inaction.

Climate change could shave off nearly 3% off India's GDP in future, says the World Bank

Many countries face looming demographic issues as their populations age.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/2-charts-tell-the-global-demographic-story-2015-12">Much has been written about developed markets</a> like Japan, Germany, and Italy, which have the largest percentages of their populations aged 65 and up.But another country that also deserves attention is China.In a recent note to clients, a Macquarie Research's Peter Eadon-Clarke, Tanvee Gupta Jain, and Matthew Turner shared a chart showing their projections for changes in working-age populations between 2015 and 2025 for various countries and regions across the world.China will see the greatest decrease in working-age population, according to their calculations.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="Macquarie Research" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/584586e5e02ba72a008b7715-960/screen shot 2016-12-05 at 102506 am.png"></a>Macquarie Research</div></div></div>(As an aside, this chart also shows huge projected increases in the working-age populations of India, North Africa and the Middle East, and Africa - which is essentially the opposite of what China will be seeing, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/frontier-market-demographic-charts-2016-4/">will come with its own set of challenges</a>.)Relatedly, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch team led by Beijia Ma shared a chart <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-working-age-population-already-shrinking-2016-5">back in May</a> showing that China's working-age population - aka people 15 to 59 - has already started shrinking.The BAML team wrote in the note:"For China to rise to be the world's #2 economy, the country saw its working-age population expand by 380mn people between 1980 and 2015. During this time, millions of people from rural China <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-migration-flow-to-cities-slowing-down-2016-5">migrated to cities</a> for urban manufacturing jobs. While this has pushed China to be the world's largest manufacturing economy in 2010, it is expected to peak in 2017."But "by 2050, the size of China's population will decline by around 60mn, while the working-age population will decline by 212mn or around 1/3. This is the size of the current population of Brazil, the world's 5th most populous nation," they noted.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="BAML" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5756dd9391058428008c7343-960/screen shot 2016-05-16 at 83733 am.png"></a>BAML</div></div></div>This is particularly startling given that China is also going to have a huge over-65 population in the near future in absolute terms - meaning that the country will see the same kinds of problems as aging developed markets like Japan, since fewer working-age adults will need to support more retired and elderly adults.In March, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-demographics-problem-2016-3">a report on the global-aging phenomenon from the US Census Bureau illustrated</a> some comparisons between China's over-65 population and the total population of several big developed markets:<ul><li>In 2015, the number of older people in China (136.9 million) exceeded Japan's total population (126.9 million).</li><li>By 2030, Japan and Egypt's combined total projected populations (231.8 million) will be smaller than China's projected 65-and-up population (238.8 million).</li><li>And by 2050, China's projected older population (348.8 million) will be approximately equal to the combined total projected populations of Japan, Egypt, Germany, and Australia.</li></ul>The Census Bureau report also included population pyramids, which illustrate the sex and age breakdown of a country's population, for China in 2015 and 2050. The most striking thing in the charts is the huge growth in the over-65 category, which you can see below:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="US Census" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/58458d18ba6eb605688b6773-960/screen shot 2016-03-29 at 82539 am.png"></a>US Census</div></div></div><div>Another thing that stands out is the relatively small projected population of younger people in 2050, which is partially because of the one-child policy introduced in the late 1970s. And even though the government recently retired it, the impact from that won't be seen for some time. </div> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ykk-zipper-label-almost-every-2016-11">Why almost every pair of jeans has a zipper that says 'YKK'</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="d2aGtyNzE6iAceZypUsvAzL9SEcWruj1" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

This chart shows a big problem for China's demographic future

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Amit Dave/ReutersA man walks through a dried-up Sarkhej lake on a hot summer day in Ahmedabad in April 2016</div></div></div>It doesn't take long to draw up some crisis that could damage the global economy.China's slowdown, ever-increasing emerging market debt, political instability in the Middle East, and the breakup of the European Union all pose serious risks.None of those worries compare to the real danger according to Joe Quinlan, strategist at Bank of America Merril Lynch's US Trust."They all represent known unknowns-or externalities already acknowledged and discounted by the capital markets," wrote Quinlan."That's the good news. The bad news: None of the hazards just mentioned are as remotely as threatening to the global economy as water-related climate change risks, a dynamic little understood by investors."Quinlan believes that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/a-multi-decade-mega-drought-is-coming-to-the-us-2015-7">climate change will decrease the supply</a> of water available not only for human consumption but also industrial use to dangerously low levels. Without the water, which he calls the "lifeblood of the global economy", it will be impossible for economies to function from the human toll to the simple fact many industries are water-intensiveQuinlan cited a <a href="http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/water/publication/high-and-dry-climate-change-water-and-the-economy">World Bank report</a> that lays out just how dire the situation is. 1.6 billion could be subject to serious water scarcity within 20 years, while global water demand could shoot up as much as 50% by 2050. Industrial water demand could increase 50-70% by 2050, according to World Bank estimates.India's difficult water situation over the past two years is the perfect example of this trend, according to Quinlan. Here's his breakdown (emphasis added):None other than India, the newly anointed growth champion of the world economy, is in the grips of a two-year drought that threatens the economic livelihood of more than 300 million people. Because water levels in India's 91 reservoirs are at their lowest levels in decades, agricultural output has declined, while electricity generation has plummeted. Dams are parched, factories are operating below capacity, and the lack of safe drinking water has put the health of millions of people at risk. Water wars have erupted between states, making the crisis all that more acute for the national government. Add it all up and the world's strongest emerging market is being laid low by a climate-induced water crisis.In order to alleviate these concerns, Quinlan said, governments and private firms will need to invest extensively in conservation and means to combat the global crisis, or risk it totally decimating growth.According to Quinlan's estimates, the world water industry already generates around $450 billion a year and that is poised to increase as the globe confronts this issue.If that doesn't happen, there could be dire consequences."Global climate change-or the increasing frequency and severity of droughts, floods and violent storms-has added another dangerous element and layer to the world's mounting water crisis," concluded Quinlan."This slow-motion crisis of the past few decades is now accelerating, creating plenty of risks to global growth but also multiple investment opportunities." <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-biggest-threat-2016-4">FORMER GREEK FINANCE MINISTER: The single largest threat to the global economy</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="4wNWo1MzE6mCXkk1XHZUEjn1PYYwkNot" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

The 'lifeblood of the global economy' is at risk

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China may never become the world's largest economy now, Bloomberg Economics says.</li><li>Forecasters expect its GDP to briefly pass the US's in the mid-2040s, before "falling back behind."</li></ul>China's struggles to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-crash-recession-growth-retail-sales-inflation-deflation-covid-2023-7">revive growth</a> and shore up its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/country-garden-china-real-estate-problems-explainer-evergrande-2023-8?">crisis-laden property market</a> this year mean it's unlikely to ever permanently take the US's crown as the world's largest economy, one recent forecast says.<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-05/china-slowdown-means-it-may-never-overtake-us-economy-be-says" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg Economics</a> said on Tuesday that China's Gross Domestic Product would briefly surpass the US's in the mid-2040s, but by "only a small margin" before "falling back behind."Their latest outlook comes two-thirds of the way through a bruising 2023 that's highlighted China's economic struggles after nearly three years of harsh zero-COVID lockdowns.In July, the country's second-quarter GDP growth came in way below what forecasters had expected, with Beijing also battling <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-recession-inflation-deflation-xi-jinping-stimulus-cpi-ppi-2023-8">deflation</a> and a severe real-estate crisis that has threatened to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-property-country-garden-dollar-bond-interest-grace-period-default-2023-9">bring down several local property behemoths</a>, including <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/ctryf-stock">Country Garden</a>.The flurry of bad data has led to US President Joe Biden calling China's economy a "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-china-economy-beijing-growth-ticking-time-bomb-us-trade-2023-8">ticking time bomb</a>" — and several other strategists warning the current downturn there could snowball into a slump that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-global-markets-xi-deflation-property-housing-evergrande-developers-2023-8">drags on global growth</a>."China is down-shifting onto a slower growth path sooner than we expected," Bloomberg Economics said."The post-Covid rebound has run out of steam, reflecting a deepening property slump and fading confidence in Beijing's management of the economy. Weak confidence risks becoming entrenched — resulting in an enduring drag on growth potential."The economists — who previously saw China overtaking the US in the 2030s — believe GDP growth in the world's most populous country will slow from its current level of over 6% to just 1% by 2050, revised down from an earlier prediction of 1.6%.

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