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<ul class="summary-list"><li>India is trying to modernize its military of 1.5 million people with lessons from Ukraine.</li><li>Until recent years, Russia supplied India with many weapons such as tanks and jets.</li></ul>As India boosts defense spending amid tensions with China and Pakistan, it is closely studying the Ukraine conflict for clues to the future of warfare and how to thwart its neighbors.Some lessons that Indian experts have already drawn: India needs lots of artillery, drones and cyberwarfare capabilities.Comparing Ukraine to India is tricky. Ukraine faces one major enemy — Russia — while India must contend with its old enemy Pakistan to the west, and an increasingly powerful China on its northwest frontier. The Russo-Ukraine war is mostly being fought over an Eastern European landscape of plains and forest, with a moderately good road network suitable for mechanized warfare. India must prepare for combat in a variety of terrain and climate conditions, including desert, jungle and some of the tallest mountains on Earth.India is also trying to modernize and standardize equipment for its armed forces, which comprise about 1.5 million personnel armed with a potpourri of equipment from several nations, as well as indigenous Indian gear. Until recent years, Russia supplied many weapons such as tanks and jets, but India is increasingly acquiring arms from Western nations, including American howitzers, French jet fighters, and Israeli drones.The Indian Army's artillery, for example, includes more than 3,000 weapons and multiple rocket launchers, including Russian, American, Swedish and South Korean designs. Indian observers believe Ukraine shows the importance of having plentiful and modern artillery. Artillery has arguably become the decisive combat arm in that war, with Russian firing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-army-suffers-from-artillery-shell-hunger/">10,000 shells per day</a> and advancing, while a munitions shortage has limited Ukraine to around 2,000 shells per day. This deluge of firepower has forced both armies to dig in, and turned the conflict into trench warfare."Looking at the demonstration of artillery fire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, two lessons are available to the Indian Army," wrote Amrita Jash, an assistant professor at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education, in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.orfonline.org/public/uploads/upload/20240118114645.pdf">report</a> for the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank. "First, that firepower can be a 'battle-winning factor,' and second, that the time between acquiring the target to shooting has drastically reduced: where it once took five to 10 minutes, it now takes only a minute or two."Indeed, India already planning to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-draws-lessons-from-ukraine-war-revises-its-artillery-requirements/article67315823.ece">modernize</a> its artillery arsenal, including switching to 155-mm howitzers — the standard NATO caliber — and developing longer-range shells and rockets.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian servicemen fire an artillery in the direction of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on April 01, 2024." height="3000" width="4500" msid="109704222" hostid="261" sizebytes="757078"></div>The air war over Ukraine has proven to be a surprise, especially given Russian superiority in numbers of aircraft and technology. Anti-aircraft missiles have deterred the air forces of both sides from venturing into enemy airspace, with Russian aircraft limited to firing stand-off missiles at Ukrainian cities rather than providing air support for its ground troops. <a target="_blank">Drones</a> have become the stars and workhorses of the air war, with both sides deploying — and losing — drones in the hundreds of thousands.There are lessons here for Indian airpower, according to Arjun Subramaniam, a retired Indian Air Force air vice marshal who helped write the ORF report. India must prepare for "gaining control of the air in limited time and space conditions in a short, high-intensity limited conflict as well as in a longer, protracted conflict." The Air Force must also ensure that its plans are synchronized with ground and naval forces. India should also continue to focus on suppressing enemy air defenses, "particularly against an adversary that is more interested in denying rather than controlling the airspace."Not surprisingly, Subramaniam wants the Indian military to increase drone development and production. But he is also concerned about the possibility of a mass drone attack on India. "Of greater importance is the need to rapidly develop counter-drone capabilities that would be essential in responding to large-scale surprise attacks and retain effective second-strike capabilities," he wrote.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/03/20/the-cyberwar-in-ukraine-is-as-crucial-as-the-battle-in-the-trenches">Cyberwarfare</a> has also emerged in Ukraine as a crucial tool in everything from hacking into military computers and critical infrastructure to purveying propaganda and deepfakes in global media. ORF researcher Shimona Mohan noted "the increasing role of largely civilian organizations like big tech in conflict situations and the deepening interplay of civil-military partnerships around dual-use technologies like AI."Mohan recommends that India invest in cyberwarfare, as other nations are doing. "However, if this is not feasible for socio-political or economic reasons, it should be a priority for countries to ensure that their strategic geopolitical allies are formidable tech powers—for instance in this war, Ukraine received much support from its more tech-savvy partners like the US and private tech companies."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

India is drawing lessons from Ukraine to counter China's military might 

At the invitation of Russian President <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword>, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President <keyword id="19946362" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Xi-Jinping" source="keywords">Xi Jinping</keyword> will attend the 16th <keyword id="21003379" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BRICS-summit" source="keywords">BRICS Summit</keyword> in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-23, 2024. The summit will focus on the theme "Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security," providing a key platform for leaders to discuss pressing global issues and explore opportunities for collaboration. The <keyword id="20037428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BRICS" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BRICS" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="BRICS">BRICS</keyword> group, originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2006, has grown to include South Africa, and recently expanded further to welcome Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, making it a 10-member bloc. <keyword id="19911498" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Putin" source="keywords">Putin</keyword> sees this <keyword id="23595116" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="expanded-BRICS" source="keywords">expanded BRICS</keyword> as a counterweight to Western dominance in global politics and trade. During his visit, <keyword id="19899320" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="PM-Modi" source="keywords">PM Modi</keyword> is expected to hold bilateral meetings with fellow BRICS leaders and other invited representatives, aiming to strengthen partnerships and advance shared objectives. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasised that the summit will offer a valuable opportunity to evaluate the progress of BRICS initiatives and identify new areas for future collaboration. Modi's visit to Russia follows an informal meeting with Putin in Moscow earlier this year and a call in August, where the Indian leader urged for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict. The upcoming summit highlights the growing <keyword id="23595115" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-significance" source="keywords">geopolitical significance</keyword> of BRICS in reshaping global dynamics. (With inputs from sources)

PM Modi to meet Putin and Xi Jinping at BRICS summit in Russia on October 22-23

New Delhi [India], March 20 (ANI): Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> held a telephonic conversation with Russian President <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> on Wednesday and reiterated India's stand on dialogue and diplomacy as a way for the resolution of the ongoing war against <keyword id="19895162" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ukraine" source="keywords">Ukraine</keyword>, said an official release. "The two leaders agreed to make concerted efforts towards further strengthening the Special &amp; Privileged Strategic Partnership between the two countries in the years to come. They also reviewed progress in various issues of bilateral cooperation, and exchanged views on regional and global issues of mutual interest," an official release said. "While discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, PM reiterated India's consistent position in favour of dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward. The two leaders agreed to remain in touch," it added. Meanwhile, Kremlin also shared details of President <keyword id="19911498" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="putin" source="keywords">Putin</keyword>'s conversation with <keyword id="19899320" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pm-modi" source="keywords">PM Modi</keyword> and said that the former informed the latter about the ongoing situation in the war-torn region of Ukraine. President Putin also emphasised Ukraine's refusal to take political and diplomatic steps to settle the conflict. "The President of <keyword id="19895159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="russia" source="keywords">Russia</keyword> gave his assessment of the current state of affairs in the zone of the special military operation. He emphasised Kiev's categorical refusal to take political and diplomatic steps to settle the conflict," the President of Russia said in a statement. "In connection with the events of June 24, Narendra Modi expressed understanding and support of the resolute actions by the Russian leadership to protect law and order and ensure stability in the country and security of its people," it added. On June 24, 2023, <keyword id="19911496" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yevgeny-prigozhin" source="keywords">Yevgeny Prigozhin</keyword>, the chief of the Wagner Group, led an armed rebellion against the Russian defense minister. The rebellion started in Rostov-on-Don, in southern Russia, and forces loyal to Prigozhin marched toward Moscow. The rebellion was called off after Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko intervened. In a televised address on June 24, President of Russia Vladimir Putin denounced Wagner's actions as treason and pledged to quell the rebellion. Further in the conversation, both leaders discussed the bilateral cooperation between the two countries and expressed their satisfaction over the increase in trade. "During the discussion of topical issues of bilateral cooperation, the leaders noted the importance of further consistent implementation of large-scale joint projects in different areas and voiced their satisfaction over a tangible increase in trade in 2022 and the first quarter of the current year," Kremlin said. "Special attention was paid to interaction in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the G20, in which India is holding the rotating presidency this year, and in the BRICS format. In addition, Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin about his international contacts, including his recent visit to Washington," it added. The statement said further, "The conversation was substantive and constructive. The leaders confirmed their mutual desire to strengthen the Russia-India specially privileged strategic partnership and planned future contacts." Earlier in 2022, PM Modi's advice to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's summit in Uzbekistan's Samarkand has grabbed the attention of leading international media organisations. "Today's era is not of war and I have spoken to you about it on the call. Today we will get the opportunity to talk about how we can progress on the path of peace. India and Russia have stayed together with each other for several decades," PM Modi told Putin expressing his concerns about the impact of the war on food and energy security. "We spoke several times on the phone about India-Russia bilateral relations and various issues. We should find ways to address the problems of food, fuel security and fertilizers. I want to thank Russia and Ukraine for helping us to evacuate our students from Ukraine," he added. International media praised PM Modi's diplomatic acumen, who in a friendly tone pushed the concerns of the global community to its long-standing friend Russia. American publication -CNN praised PM Modi's hold on world politics and reported " Indian leader Narendra Modi tells Putin: Now is not the time for war." (ANI)

PM Modi stresses dialogue, diplomacy for Ukraine crisis resolution with Putin

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US President Joe Biden and China's leader Xi Jinping spoke in a Tuesday phone call.</li><li>The leaders discussed global conflicts, including China's support for Russia amid the Ukraine war. </li></ul>US President Joe Biden warned China's leader Xi Jinping about his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-exports-trade-war-russia-partnership-us-sanctions-2024-3">government's ongoing support for Russia</a> amid the war in Ukraine during a Tuesday phone call between the two world leaders.Biden and Xi's conversation this week was the first time they had spoken since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-xi-meeting-china-plan-supplant-us-working-apec-summit-2023-11">meeting for a summit in California</a> last November. A senior administration official told reporters in a background call that the discussion was a "check-in" as the two countries attempt to manage rising global tensions, according to media reports.Over the course of an hour and 45 minutes, Biden and Xi hit on several hot-button issues, including mounting US concerns regarding China's trade partnership with Russia two years into the latter's war in Ukraine, according to a White House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/02/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-call-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/">readout</a> of the call.More than two years after invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has managed to keep its economy alive, refocusing much of its trade from the West to the East and South, primarily in China and India.Despite <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-pariah-state-while-putin-is-in-charge-expert-says-2022-4">alienating itself from the majority of the world</a>, Russia continues to maintain an economic ally in China, whose ongoing support has helped Russia rebuild its defense industry during a vital moment in the war.Russia has successfully <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-iran-economy-outlook-help-assistance-western-sanctions-oil-2024-3">skirted Western sanctions</a> with the help of China as Beijing becomes an alternative market for Russia's banned oil. Some Russian firms have even seen a boom in business since the war thanks to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-companies-boom-lucrative-trade-deals-china-invasion-ukraine-putin-2024-3">lucrative trade deals with Chinese companies</a> who buy up Russian energy supplies and provide Russia with machinery and vehicles as payment, according to a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/trade-with-china-booms-some-russian-companies-are-flourishing-2024-03-13/">Reuters story</a>.A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbr.ru/StaticHtml/File/159640/kgo_2023.pdf">report</a> last month found the Central Bank of Russia is turning to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-economy-sanctions-tighten-options-chinese-yuan-international-reserves-2024-4">Chinese yuan for its reserves</a> and to avoid Western sanctions.Russian President Vladimir Putin even gave Beijing a shout-out soon after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-vladimir-putin-presidential-election-vote-landslide-win-2024-3">winning his reelection</a> last month. Xi followed up by congratulating Putin, issuing a statement affirming the legitimacy of the carefully-engineered election.Biden and Xi on Tuesday also discussed many of the potential triggers in the two superpower's tenuous relationship, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-biden-china-going-take-over-taiwan-war-report-apec-2023-12">Taiwan</a>, China's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/with-close-calls-china-uses-us-to-train-its-troops-2023-12">provocations in the South China Sea</a>, and ongoing conflicts around the world, including the war in Israel and Gaza, according to media reports.The two previously spoke over the phone in July 2022 and met later that year in Bali.

Biden warns Xi Jinping about China's ongoing support for Russia amid Ukraine war      

Earlier this week, former US President Donald Trump revealed that Indian Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> is scheduled to meet with him next week. This potential gathering, set against the backdrop of Trump’s bid for a return to the White House, highlights how global leaders are positioning themselves in anticipation of possible changes in US leadership. “He happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he’s fantastic,” Trump said on Tuesday during a town hall event in Flint, Michigan, while discussing free trade and US job protection. He even went on to call India a “very big abuser” in trade, Al Jazeera reported. Most likely, Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting up with Trump could be an acknowledgment of the latter's potential return to power in the November election, as foreign leaders carefully navigate diplomatic relations with key US political figures. However, neither the Trump campaign nor India’s Ministry of External Affairs have clearly commented on the matter yet, meaning that the Indian leader’s plans of a tête-à-tête with ex US President Trump are foggy at best. During a press conference, foreign secretary <keyword id="20181706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vikram-misri" source="keywords">Vikram Misri</keyword> said, "there are many meetings with the Prime Minister right now which we are trying to fix. Right now, I will not be able to tell you about any specific meeting, whether the meeting has been fixed or not." "We are looking from all angles as to how much time we have and with whom we can hold meetings. We will keep updating you about the meetings," he added. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113444882" title="Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him &amp;#39;fantastic&amp;#39;" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>What we do know with certainty is that Mr Modi is indeed scheduled to travel to the US over the weekend and his calendar is going to be jam-packed. His visit coincides with his planned participation at the <keyword id="23145156" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders Summit</keyword> (including representatives from Australia, India, Japan and the US) in Wilmington, Delaware, hosted by President Joe Biden. As per a White House official, the meet-up will feature "ambitious announcements in multiple areas such as maritime security, high-quality infrastructure and critical and emerging technologies to demonstrate the group’s endurance". Prime Minister Modi will have bilateral meetings with President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday, following the conclusion of the Quad Summit. A special event, the Cancer Moonshot initiative, is also scheduled on the sidelines of the summit. In his meeting with President Biden, India and the US are anticipated to sign several agreements, including those related to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on drug frameworks. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that Modi and Biden will review the comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the US, which spans over 50 areas of engagement and bilateral dialogue mechanisms. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113085171" title="India is likely to benefit if Trump wins US elections, per Nomura Global Research" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Both leaders will also assess progress in areas of cooperation, though tensions remain due to the alleged assassination plot involving Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The investigation is ongoing, and India has formed a committee to examine the accusations. This visit may serve to ease some of the friction in the relationship. Defence cooperation remains a key area of collaboration between India and the U.S., including agreements on the procurement of 31 MQ-9B Predator drones, joint manufacturing of Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles, and co-production of GE F414 engines in India. The Ukraine conflict is also expected to be a topic of discussion. Prime Minister Modi is supposed to attend the "Modi &amp; US" community event at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island. The event, already overbooked with more than 24,000 Indian Americans registered for a venue with a capacity of 15,000, has attracted attendees from 42 states, especially the tri-state area. Additionally, PM Modi will allegedly lead a roundtable with CEOs of American companies working in fields like AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and cutting-edge technology. Lastly, on September 23, Modi will address global leaders at the United Nations' Summit of the Future (SOTF) and is expected to hold bilateral meetings with other heads of state attending the UN General Assembly. Obviously, squeezing in a meeting with Trump and Democrat Candidate Kamala Harris (you know, to balance things out) seems unlikely given Mr Modi’s tight schedule. But we’ll have a clearer picture only in the coming days. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111770277" title="PM Modi likely to address high-level UNGA session on Sep 26" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Why is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the US this weekend?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia to visit its president Vladimir Putin. </li><li>It's a visit that risks annoying India's ally the US. </li></ul>When India's prime minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, he greeted Russia's famously chilly president, Vladimir Putin, with an exuberant bear hug.It was a move likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">to rile the US, </a>India's most important geopolitical ally, which has placed pressure on New Delhi to loosen its ties with Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's fear of China — a key Russian ally — means that he's willing to risk American anger to keep Putin close."New Delhi sees Moscow as an important buffer in their relationship due to Moscow's strong ties with Beijing," Sarang Shidore, an analyst at the Quincy Institute, told Business Insider."It is not in Russia's interest to have China and India at loggerheads, so it could, to a degree, act as a restraining agent."<h2 id="0ad4840d-1eb0-4f3e-a27c-3953a5a682f0">India ignores US pressure to cut Russia ties</h2>During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was among India's most important allies, with the Kremlin providing military support during India's clashes with Pakistan.They've remained close ever since, but the relationship is being tested anew in the fallout from the Ukraine war.The US has attempted to persuade India to take part <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">in its campaign to isolate</a> Russia over the Ukraine invasion — but with little success."Russia is one of India's oldest strategic partners, and New Delhi wants to maintain this relationship regardless of Russia's diplomatic isolation following the war in Ukraine," Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI.India has increased its purchase of Russian goods, including oil and fertilizer, at reduced prices after the US imposed sanctions on Russia.It continues to buy Russian armaments, with around <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">70% of its weapons systems believed to be Russian</a>-made, and its military reliant on the Kremlin for spare parts and upgrades."Taking a hardline position against Russia could have both economic and security ramifications for India," said Richard Rossow, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<h2 id="a68bd311-605c-44db-97ac-44c2056c27c0">China's threat to India increases</h2>The threat from Chinese leader Xi Jinping is another key factor in Modi's determination to ignore US pressure and retain good ties with Putin.China's regional might is growing, and it's menacing India, Asia's other major economic power.In 2020, a long-simmering border dispute resulted in deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. China ha<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">s bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean</a>, and the two are jostling for influence in countries in the region.China has built stronger ties with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, hoping a Russian victory<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> will damage US power and enhance its own global</a> might. And it's this friendship Modi's seeking to drive a wedge between."There is a real chance of future conflicts, and India would prefer to avoid Russia exporting advanced military hardware to China," said Rossow.Some Indian analysts believe that China poses a greater threat to Russia than NATO in the long term and that India can exploit those differences."The Russia-China 'alliance' may be short-term in nature, and that historical conflicts between the two, such as over their long border and under-developed natural resources in Russia's east, will resurface and trigger renewed tensions," said Morrow.But for the time being, Russia's new "no limits"<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2"> partnership has got Modi worried</a>, and he'll likely be hoping for a swift end to the Ukraine war. By maintaining good relations with Putin he's hoping he can contain the fallout."The war does not at all benefit its interests. The war also opens the door to legitimizing violations of territorial integrity, and endangers a principle that New Delhi has backed strongly," said Shidore.

Fear of China is behind India's exuberant display of friendship with Vladimir Putin 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's "no limits" partnership with China is hurting its own economy, one think tank says.</li><li>It says that's because China has been altering its trade connections against Russia's interests.</li></ul>Moscow's friendship with Beijing is at the expense of its own economy – so much so that Russia needs the US to counterbalance its relations with China, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)."Isolated from the West, Moscow has fallen ever deeper in Beijing's embrace. Although the Kremlin touts its close strategic alignment and 'no limits' friendship with China, the reality is not so rosy," Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the New York-based think tank said in a recent op-ed for <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/asia/what-russia-really-wants" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Foreign Affairs</a>.That comes as Russia and China have worked to knit their economies closer, with both nations announcing a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-china-trade-no-limits-putin-ukraine-war-western-sanctions-2023-1">"no limits" strategic partnership</a> in early 2022, just before Russia began its "special military operation" of Ukraine. That partnership has led to a boom in trade between the two countries, which hit an all-time high of $190 billion in 2022, according to data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs.But the think tank argues that much of the partnership has been more to Beijing's benefit than it has been to Moscow. Though China is one of Russia's only reliable trading partners at the moment, the nation has neglected to make major investments in Russia, Graham noted.Beijing also appears to be prioritizing its own economic interests, such as by using its relationship with Russia to trim other trade ties on terms "inordinately" favorable to itself, Graham said. He says the nation has also worked to expand its connections elsewhere in Asia, which are actually coming at Russia's expense.Not to mention, China is more powerful than Russia economically and militarily. <a href="https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/real-gdp-purchasing-power-parity/country-comparison/">The nation's economy is ranked the world's largest by real GDP</a>, according to the Central Intelligence Agency, and about six times the size of Russia's, per 2021 CIA estimates. China is also home to the world's largest military, with around 3 million on active duty, according to an estimate from the <a href="https://www.jcs.mil/Media/News/News-Display/Article/1732851/dias-china-military-power-report-details-leaders-strategy/">US Defense Intelligence Agency</a>.Moscow has been working to expand some of its relationships as well, such as with <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-dollar-currencies-india-yuan-rupee-china-trade-sanctions-moscow-2023-5">India</a>, another top trading partner. But those connections are still smaller by comparison. And Russia's economy now appears to be so dependent on China, that the nation needs the help of the US to counterbalance it, Graham said."If Russia wants to avoid strategic subordination to China, it cannot rely on inchoate multilateral groupings that have little chance of rivaling Western-dominated global institutions. Nor can Russia count on highly transactional bilateral relations with countries weaker than itself. The only genuine option, then, is the West," he added.Graham notes, however, is unlikely to ever acknowledge this: The Russian president has been known to deny or otherwise <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/putin-russia-western-sanctions-oil-price-cap-natural-gas-china-2022-12">rebuke any signs of economic weakness in the nation</a>. At Russia's Eastern Economic Forum, Putin claimed that the Russia wasn't facing any "absolutely insurmountable" problems, despite inflation accelerating well-above the central bank's target rate."Putin will never acknowledge this reality. His anti-Americanism is too deeply entrenched, and he has lashed his fate to Chinese President Xi Jingping too tight, to seek an opening with the United States, even if it is strategically beneficial," Graham added.Western economists have forecasted a far <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-putin-moscow-car-industry-recession-ukraine-war-finances-2023-7">grimmer future ahead for Russia</a>, whose economy has been spiraling amid western sanctions and its costly invasion of Ukraine. In particular, the nation is <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-china-vassal-war-ukraine-western-sanctions-2023-5"> becoming increasingly at the mercy of China</a>, with some experts warning that Russia could eventually become China's "vassal state."

China's economic partnership with Russia is so lopsided that Putin needs the help of the US — but he'd never admit that, think tank says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a narrower-than-expected reelection victory.</li><li>But the setback likely won't deter his global ambitions.</li></ul>India's Prime Minister <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">Narendra Modi</a> emerged from Tuesday's election victory with his air of invincibility damaged.The strongman leader of the world's largest democracy had been predicted to win reelection for a third term by a landslide.But his Bharatiya Janata Party <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-2024-6">failed to gain enough seats</a> to claim outright victory, and it will need the support of coalition partners to form a government.The result, though, is unlikely to deter Modi, as he continues to pursue one of the core goals of his decade in power: transforming India into one of the world's most powerful nations.<h2 id="272ba8df-0d6b-4e4a-960e-7da93df8450f">A leader of the Global South</h2>Under Modi, India's growth has put it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/benjaminlaker/2024/02/23/india-to-become-third-largest-economy-by-2027-implications-for-leaders/?sh=58b178754fd5">on the path</a> to becoming the world's third-biggest economy by 2027 — and it has become an important and increasingly abrasive global power player.Modi wants to position India as a leader of the Global South — a term often used to describe a group of developing nations — and for it to have a permanent position on the UN Security Council to mark its new global status.He has strengthened ties with the US, a long-standing ally, but he's also sought to build ties with Russia and has clashed with Asia's chief power, China.Modi will work to cement his foreign-policy legacy in his third term.<h2 id="c3e5a4c5-0e40-407e-a012-9b6448008edc">Countering Chinese aggression</h2>Richard Rossow, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that countering China's aggression and seeking foreign investment will be key focuses for Modi going forward."India's main priorities will remain unchanged," he said.A clash between India and China in June 2020 over a long-simmering Himalayan border dispute resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers. Meanwhile, tensions in the Indian Ocean are escalating, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">a report from earlier this year</a> finding that China is mapping vast undersea areas in preparation for a potential naval conflict with the rival regional power.<div type="image" title="Biden Modi" height="2666" width="4000" msid="110739802" hostid="261"></div>India is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the US, Australia, and Japan, and it'll be looking to counter China's aggression by strengthening these strategic relationships."On security affairs, India wants to continue building partnerships that can help it manage belligerent actions China is taking today and in the future. This includes robust engagement with nations in its own neighborhood, particularly in the maritime domain," Rossow said.<h2 id="1c4bdd94-6b6b-4a40-a00c-8ff78e101722">A dark side</h2>India's new assertiveness under Modi has a dark side.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.google.com/search?q=wapo+india+assassination&amp;rlz=1C5GCEM_enGB1112&amp;oq=wapo+india+assassination+&amp;gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIICAEQABgWGB4yCAgCEAAYFhgeMg0IAxAAGIYDGIAEGIoFMgoIBBAAGIAEGKIEMgoIBRAAGIAEGKIEMgoIBhAAGIAEGKIEMgoIBxAAGIAEGKIEMgoICBAAGIAEGKIE0gEINDg2N2owajeoAgCwAgA&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8">The Washington Post in April</a> reported that India's security services were behind the assassination of a dissident in Canada last June and the attempted assassination of a Modi critic in the US, claims that India has denied.Modi's disappointing election result is unlikely to change his often abrasive and aggressive pursuit of foreign goals."This election result is unlikely to have much of an impact on India's international security actions," Rossow said.<div type="image" title="Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin" height="3196" width="4714" msid="110739803" hostid="261"></div>But Modi will face serious challenges in his efforts to cement India's new global status.India has bought vast quantities of Russian oil, and that money has been used by Putin to fund his war in Ukraine. This move has aggravated the US, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQ9WiQPyLFk&amp;ab_channel=Reuters">has reportedly</a> pressured Modi to stop the purchases.Putin's "no limits" relationship with China's Xi Jinping presents another strategic conundrum for Modi, who seems keen to retain good ties with Putin but is wary of China's global might.Modi's core challenges in the years ahead will be ensuring regional stability by avoiding war with China and Pakistan and continuing India's economic rise through vital domestic reforms."India's journey towards true great power capabilities is thus likely to be long and arduous," <a target="_blank" href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/04/21/indias-arduous-road-to-achieving-its-great-power-ambitions/">Ashley J. Tellis</a>, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote.Correction: June 5, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated which countries are part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. It's a group consisting of India, the US, Australia, and Japan; the UK is not part of it.

Modi is on a mission to assert India's global power. His election setback won't deter him.

US President <keyword id="99719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Joe-Biden" source="Orion">Joe Biden</keyword> will decide whether to apply or waive sanctions on India, one of America’s key partners, under the CAATSA law for its purchase of the S-400 missile defence system from <keyword id="6358826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>, a senior administration official has told lawmakers. The US administration is required under a domestic law, Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) to impose sanctions on any country that has significant transactions with Iran, North Korea or Russia. CAATSA is a tough US law which authorises the administration to impose sanctions on countries that purchase major defence hardware from Russia in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its alleged meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections. Responding to a question on possible CAATSA sanctions on India, Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia told members of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Near East, South Asia, Central Asia, and Counterterrorism on Wednesday that it was for the President Biden to decide whether to apply or waive sanctions on India. “I can assure you that the administration will follow the CAATSA law and fully implement that law and will consult with Congress as we move forward with any of them. What unfortunately I am not able to say is to prejudge the decisions of the President or the (Secretary of State) on the waiver issue or on the sanctions issue, or whether Russia’s invasion of <keyword id="6355101" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> will bear on that decision,” he said. Lu said that the Biden administration is yet to decide on applying sanctions on India under CAATSA. “India is a really important security partner of ours now. And that we value moving forward that partnership and I hope that part of what happens with the extreme criticism that Russia has faced is that India will find it’s now time to further distances,” Lu said. The senior American diplomat said it is going to be very hard for any country to buy major weapon systems from Russia because of the sweeping sanctions now placed on Russian banks. “What we’ve seen from India in just the last few weeks, is the cancellation of MiG 29 orders, Russian helicopter orders and anti-tank weapon orders,” Lu said. Lu’s remarks came as India faced flak from US lawmakers, both Republicans and Democrats for choosing to abstain from a UN vote on Wednesday to rebuke Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A total of 141 nations voted in favour of the move condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and five nations were against it, with 35 countries, including India, abstaining. The UNGA resolution was similar to the one circulated in the 15-nation Security Council last Friday, on which also India had abstained. The UNSC resolution, which received 11 votes in favour and three abstentions, was blocked after permanent member Russia exercised its veto. In October 2018, India had signed a USD 5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defence missile systems, despite a warning from the then Trump administration that going ahead with the contract may invite US sanctions. The US has already imposed sanctions on Turkey under the CAATSA for the purchase of a batch of S-400 missile defence systems from Russia. Following the US sanctions on Turkey over the procurement of S-400 missile systems, there were apprehensions that Washington may impose similar punitive measures on India. Russia has been one of India’s key major suppliers of arms and ammunition. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/mukesh-ambanis-reliance-announced-a-partnership-with-sanmina-a-us-based-electronics-manufacturer/articleshow/89960792.cms">Reliance teams up with US-based Sanmina to create a high-tech electronics manufacturing hub in India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/mobikwiks-upasana-taku-says-all-the-companies-that-made-their-grand-entry-into-bnpl-will-have-a-grand-exit-too/articleshow/89960652.cms">INTERVIEW: Mobikwik’s Upasana Taku says all the companies that made their grand entry into BNPL will have a grand exit too</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/what-is-swift-how-does-it-work-why-is-it-important-and-how-nations-are-using-it-to-punish-russia/articleshow/89886091.cms">What is SWIFT, how does it work, why is it important and how nations are using it to punish Russia</a>

Biden will decide whether to apply sanctions on India for buying a missile defence system from Russia, says US official

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia aims hit $200 billion of trade with China this year and vowed to bring its relationship with Beijing to a "new level." </li><li>The Kremlin also reiterated its "no limits" strategic partnership with China.</li></ul>Russia is aiming for $200 billion of trade with China this year as it seeks to take its partnership with the Beijing to a "new level," officials said.Trade between China and Russia <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/china-russia-trade-190-billion-western-sanctions-oil-price-cap-2023-1">hit an all-time high of $190 billion</a> in 2022, according to data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs."We are convinced that the potential for Russian-Chinese bilateral cooperation is still far from exhausted," Russia's foreign ministry said, per a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-seeks-new-level-china-ties-2023-01-30/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a> report on Tuesday.The ministry added that the partnership with China would "significantly deepen" and reach "no limits." Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the two countries first <a href="https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/03/31/Joint_Statement_of_the_Russian_Federation_and_the_Peoples_Republic_of_China_on_the_International_Relations_Entering_a_New_Era_and_the_Global_Sustainable_Development__President_of_Russia.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced a "no limits" strategic partnership</a>. Since the war began, Russia has leaned heavily on China. Though the West has shunned Russia and imposed strict sanctions, China has not taken an official stance on the war, and significantly ramped up its purchases of Russian oil and gas at discounted prices.Russia also began purchasing the Chinese yuan, after sanctions shut it out from global transactions in the US dollar and euro. The yuan now <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/china-yuan-russia-ruble-moscow-exhange-currency-market-dollar-euro-2022-12">accounts for nearly half</a> of Russia's foreign currency market, according to a report from the Moscow Exchange, and sales of the yuan could <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-china-yuan-oil-price-cap-eu-ban-sanctions-putin-2023-1">bolster the Russian economy</a> despite Western trade restrictions, Bloomberg reported.It's unclear how deeply the "no limits" partnership will intertwine the two nations, though China's chief diplomat Wang Yi is is expected to visit Moscow in February. That could possibly include a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a local Russian news outlet reported, though the purpose of Wang's visit hasn't been officially determined.But experts warn that Russia can't fully rely on its allies to cover all of its losses from Western trade restrictions. Even with continued support from China and India, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-crude-oil-exports-war-revenue-eu-ban-price-cap-2023-1">Russia's oil revenue has plunged</a> since the European Union banned Russian crude and slapped a $60-per-barrel price cap on it.China and India are also unlikely to come to the rescue when the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-fuel-embargo-eu-diesel-g7-price-cap-china-india-2023-1">EU bans refined Russian fuels in February</a>, meaning the Kremlin could see more headwinds in the coming weeks.

Russia is aiming for $200 billion of trade with China as it backs 'no limits' partnership with Beijing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Criticism from Russia's allies mounted this week, with one Chinese official saying "Putin is crazy."</li><li>Some worry Russia may be "more of an albatross than ally," a former US ambassador to NATO said.</li></ul>Eleven months since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an attack on Ukraine, the longtime leader remains in a precarious position with growing discontent among his country's few remaining allies."Nobody wants an ally who is a liability, and it's hard to see Putin's Russia as anything else," Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider."I think we can see the consequences already in that the most active support is coming from Iran and North Korea — hardly the top of anyone's friend wishlist," he added.Russia's relationship with some key allies appeared to be on even shakier ground this week. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ally-refuses-to-host-putins-military-2023-1">Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan</a> said Tuesday the country had canceled plans to host Russian military drills. Both Armenia and Russia are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance made up of six post-Soviet states that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-power-over-post-soviet-areas-wanes-ukraine-invasion-flounders-2022-10">Putin has touted as NATO's counterpart</a>."At least this year, these drills won't take place," Pashinyan said, adding the drills would be "inappropriate in the current situation."Criticism from Beijing also appeared to intensify, as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e592033b-9e34-4e3d-ae53-17fa34c16009" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Financial Times</a> on Monday reported several Chinese officials tried to distance China from the Ukraine invasion and expressed mistrust in Putin himself."Putin is crazy," one unnamed Chinese official told FT. "The invasion decision was made by a very small group of people. China shouldn't simply follow Russia."<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a photograph during their meeting in Beijing, on February 4, 2022." height="2199" width="3341" msid="96955236" hostid="261" sizebytes="341428"></div>The officials also said Beijing has come to believe that Russia may emerge from the conflict as a "minor power," with their <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-pariah-state-while-putin-is-in-charge-expert-says-2022-4">economic and diplomatic standing on the global stage greatly reduced</a>.Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has left Moscow increasingly isolated. The war prompted <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/these-5-countries-sided-with-russia-in-un-vote-2022-10">condemnation in the United Nations</a> and saw <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suspended-from-un-human-rights-council-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-4">Russia booted from the UN Human Rights Council</a>. Since the invasion began last February, Putin has limited international travel to the dwindling list of nations with amicable ties to Moscow — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-avoided-spotlight-skipped-g20-after-big-ukraine-setbacks-2022-11">skipping the G20 summit</a> in Bali in November.The US and its allies have issued <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-imploding-sweeping-sanctions-corporate-exodus-yale-study-2022-7">unprecedented sanctions</a> against Moscow. Finland and Sweden, two historically or militarily non-aligned neutral countries, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-finland-nato-accession-protocols-application-final-stage-respond-russia-war-2022-7">moved to join NATO</a>. The EU has taken steps to end its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-fossil-fuel-revenue-eu-oil-ban-price-cap-crea-2023-1">reliance on the Russian energy supply</a>. Indeed, the war has united the West against Russia in historic ways.<h2>Russia: An albatross or an ally?</h2>Meanwhile, the war has also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-criticizes-russia-war-in-ukraine-to-putin-face-2022-9">complicated Russia's relationships</a> with China and India, two vital trading partners that declined to institute sanctions and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/china-and-india-funnel-24-billion-to-putin-with-energy-spree?leadSource=uverify%20wall" rel=" nofollow">have continued buying up Russian energy products</a>. When the UN Security Council voted in September to condemn Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories as illegal, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-abstain-on-condemning-russias-annexation-of-ukraine-land-2022-9" rel="">both countries abstained</a>."Until February 24, Russia and China declared a partnership 'without limits' based on the idea that the west was divided, decadent, and in decline and that the east was rising in power and stature," Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, told Insider. "The invasion changed all that.""China has been caught between its desire to align with Russia and the realization that it might be more of an albatross than ally," he added.While China has not offered a full-throated endorsement of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it also hasn't significantly reduced ties with Moscow, despite the mounting criticism and recent comments by Chinese officials. Beijing has walked a careful line since the invasion began, at times exhibiting impatience with Russia's war in Ukraine.Putin in September <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-allies-china-india-pushed-putin-escalate-ukraine-war-experts-2022-9">acknowledged that China had "questions and concerns" about the war</a> while meeting with Xi in Uzbekistan. However last month, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/25/china-russia-ties-foreign-00075585" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China's foreign minister said</a> the country would "deepen strategic mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation" with Russia and defended Beijing's "objectivity and impartiality" on the war.<div type="image" title="modi xi putin" height="895" width="1300" msid="96955237" hostid="261" sizebytes="181944"></div><h2>'China may be trying to have it both ways'</h2>The apparent mixed messaging from Beijing could ultimately come down to diplomatic strategy."China may be trying to have it both ways," Robert English, a professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe, told Insider.English said the war benefits Beijing by distracting the West from confrontation with China, while also providing the country with discounted Russian energy. But in order to avoid jeopardizing its trade partnerships with the West, China may want to give the appearance of distancing itself from Russia."The key is appear to criticize Russia, in words, but what about their deeds? Their economic support for Russia has not flagged, nor have they altered their official position <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china-blames-nato-pushing-russia-ukraine-tension-breaking-point-2022-03-09/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blaming NATO for the conflict</a>," English said of China. "I'm afraid some analysts are thinking with their hearts, not their heads.""Putin's allies are not 'turning on him,' only expressing dissatisfaction at the difficulties his war in Ukraine is causing them," he added. "There's a big difference."

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