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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian imports of goods from China surged in September.</li><li>A new trade agreement between Russia and China was finalized in late August.</li></ul>Russia's imports of goods from China increased sharply last month, a sign that Moscow is leaning more heavily on Beijing after the two countries affirmed their economic ties.China exported around 80 billion yuan worth of goods to Russia in the month of <a target="_blank" href="http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/2c024a8b-3aea-4f87-a405-046557ad558f.html">September</a>, a 9% increase from the 73 billion yuan worth of goods it exported the prior month, according to Chinese customs data published on Tuesday. That's larger than the increase recorded over the last several months, with Chinese exports to Russia rising 3% in <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/21dcbdc9-a5c7-4ce5-8884-d45f6ab35488.html">August</a> and 1% in <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://english.customs.gov.cn/Statics/672cd557-3c4e-48bb-8e7c-40cc02a20c7e.html">July</a>.The surge of trading activity follows a fresh <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/europe/china-li-qiang-russia-belarus-trip-intl-hnk/index.html">cooperation agreement</a> Russia and China finalized in late August, which vowed, among other things, to deepen trade ties. The deal reaffirmed the "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-putin-china-trade-partnership-economy-moscow-beijing-2024-4">no limits</a>" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/moscow-beijing-partnership-has-no-limits-2022-02-04/">partnership</a> Moscow and Bejing have sought to expand since 2022, which took both country's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">trade with one another to a fresh record</a> last year."Our trade relations are not only developing but flourishing, thanks in part to the efforts of our Chinese friends," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a meeting with China's premier, Li Qiang, per a Kremlin <a target="_blank" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74910">transcript</a> of the event. "The attention and commitment shown by both governments towards the development of trade and economic relations have yielded positive results."Total trade between Russia and China notched 1.28 trillion yuan from the start of the year through September, up 3.5% from the same period last year, customs data shows.Moscow has grown more reliant on Beijing as an economic partner since being targeted by Western sanctions in 2022. Trade restrictions from the West have pushed Russia into an increasingly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-putin-moscow-budget-isolation-west-sanctions-2023-12">isolated position</a> in global markets, economists say, with countries like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-russia-china-barter-trade-us-secondary-sanctions-payments-2024-8">China</a> and India among the nation's small circle of major trading partners.Russia's trade with China has stumbled recently, however, due to payment issues abroad. In August, most Chinese banks were reportedly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">refusing to process payments from Russia</a> after the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on institutions helping Russia continue to do business and fund its war in Ukraine.

Russia's imports from China surged in September as Moscow and Beijing deepen economic ties  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia drafted plans to covertly purchase critical goods from India, the Financial Times said. </li><li>According to leaked documents, Moscow considered investing in Indian factories to support critical production.</li></ul>Russia covertly turned to India to secure critical electronic supplies and sensitive goods, according to leaked documents cited by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/101afcd6-8e6f-4b5f-89b0-98f48cd5d119">Financial Times</a>.In October 2022, Russia's industry and trade ministry made plans to spend around $1 billion worth of Indian rupees on trade channels that would operate outside Western scrutiny, the outlet said.According to the FT, the project was disclosed in letters sent to a shadowy trade group with ties to Moscow's secret services.The organization — the Consortium for Foreign Economic Activity and International Interstate Cooperation in Industry — was asked to develop a plan on how to source critical electronic components in India.Central to these efforts was Russia's massive trove of Indian rupees. As Western sanctions bore down on Moscow for its war in Ukraine, Russia was left unable to repatriate rupee profits from its ballooning oil trade with India.By the summer of last year, the Kremlin was amassing as much as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-dollar-yuan-billions-india-struggle-use-ruble-2023-6">$1 billion worth of rupees per month</a> without a way to convert or spend the currency.The Consortium's plan offered some way out, FT said.Under its scheme, rupees would be spent to secure dual-use components through a "closed payment system" between Russian and Indian firms, the outlet cited.This would provide a steady inflow of electronic equipment originally bought in Western markets, the leaked letters said.Further funds could be directed toward investments in Indian electronic factories, that would provide Russia with needed information infrastructure, FT said.Though it's unclear how much of this plan went into effect, customs data tracked by FT align with the operation's goals.For instance, the leaked correspondence outlined that rupees would be used on electronics and machinery purchases from India — since mid-2022, trade has soared steeply in these categories.Separately, an Indian businessman with knowledge of the matter told the FT that Russia has since looked into creating facilities in India.For the Kremlin, continued access to electronic components is imperative as Russia's fighting in Ukraine drags on through its third year. Since 2022, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-growth-recession-labor-worker-shortage-inflation-sanctions-west-2024-9">sanctions have grown much tighter</a>, gradually cutting off Russia's access to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">key financial lifelines</a>.

Russia built a secret trade channel with India, leaked documents show

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's Navy Day saw participation from India and China, bolstering Putin's anti-Western ties.</li><li>There was a notable absence of Russia's Black Sea Fleet at the parade, after losses to Ukraine.</li></ul>Russia's Navy Day saw warships from India and China join the celebrations as President Vladimir Putin sought to project the strength of his anti-Western alliance.China sent the Jiaozuo, a Type 052D destroyer, and India sent the Tabar, a stealth frigate, to the naval parade in St Petersburg on Sunday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/MID_Russia/43624">according to Russia's foreign ministry</a>.Algeria also sent La Soummam, a training ship, the ministry said.<div type="image" title="Chinese navy destroyer Jiaozuo in St Petersburg, Russia to participate in the Navy parade in July 2024." height="667" width="1000" msid="112115940" hostid="261" sizebytes="68584"></div>According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-28-2024">the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War</a>, the gathering was meant "to showcase Russia's relations with a number of non-Western states as part of efforts to create a supposed Russian-led group of states to rally against the West."In total, representatives of 31 countries — including Cuba, Vietnam, Egypt, and Brazil — attended, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://aif.ru/politics/russia/ne-odna-na-prostorah-okeana-v-parade-vmf-prinyali-uchastie-druzya-rossii">according to Russian state-owned outlet Argumenty i Fakty</a>.The parade came amid ongoing efforts by the Kremlin to deepen ties with countries like India and China, which have sent warships to the Navy Day celebrations in previous years.<div type="image" title="Four children wave flags saying 'welcome back' in front of India's Tabar stealth frigate in Bombay, on 31 July 2004" height="500" width="1000" msid="112115942" hostid="261" sizebytes="51970"></div>Despite claiming not to support Russia's war in Ukraine, China has emerged as a major supplier of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/04/12/china-sending-russia-missile-and-drone-parts-for-ukraine-war-us-reportedly-warns/">dual-use parts</a> crucial to its war effort — the sort of support that the US government has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-says-china-giving-russia-support-behind-scenes-ukraine-war-2024-5">repeatedly called it out for</a>.The two countries have also long participated in joint military exercises and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jul/22/2003507411/-1/-1/0/DOD-ARCTIC-STRATEGY-2024.PDF">the Pentagon recently said</a> they are showing increasing willingness to collaborate in the Arctic.Even so, China and Russia's ties appear to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-and-russia-are-in-a-bad-marriage-that-the-west-shouldnt-try-to-break-up-2024-6">uneasy</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7">opportunistic</a>, built more on a common desire to tamp down Western influence.Meanwhile, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">recent trip</a> to Russia to meet with Putin also appeared to signal an indifference to US disapproval from India.President Joe Biden has attempted to persuade Modi to take a harder line on Russia, but this has <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">largely failed</a>.<h3 id="ce577fa9-a485-44dd-a9e2-a3d031d664c7">A conspicuous absence</h3>While Russia's Navy Day celebrations typically involve all its main military port cities, this year's didn't include Sevastopol, the naval base in occupied Crimea that hosts Russia's Black Sea Fleet.Prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Sevastopol regularly featured in the parade despite <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5f1fce329a79479d6ddfc9ad">the objections</a> of Ukraine's government.But now it is an active hot-war zone under continual pressure from Ukrainian forces, and Russia has largely relocated the remains of the fleet to the safer port of Novorossiysk, on its own shores.Commentators were quick to point out Sevastopol's absence, with European Council on Foreign Relations chief Carl Bildt posting the following graphic to X, making plain the extent of the fleet's losses: Meanwhile, Putin devoted part of his speech on the day to warning the US that Russia would retaliate if it pressed ahead with recently announced plans to locate long-range missile systems in Germany by 2026.Putin said his forces will take "mirror measures" in response.

India and China joined Russia's Navy Day celebrations as Putin tries to project anti-Western group

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In a move likely to anger the US, Modi is visiting Russia.</li><li>It signals strong ties between the two countries and shows that India is pursuing its own agenda.</li></ul>In a move likely to anger the US, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Russia on Monday for his first bilateral trip after winning a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-complicates-plans-unseat-china-modi-bjp-2024-6">historic third term</a> in office.Modi's two-day visit to Russia — where he is scheduled to meet with President Vladimir Putin — is significant in that it signals strong ties between New Delhi and Moscow. It also shows the world that India is not afraid to pursue its own agenda.Vinay Kwatra, India's foreign secretary, told reporters in New Delhi that issues between Russia and India have "piled up" and "need to be addressed," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-07/putin-hosts-modi-after-hailing-best-in-history-ties-with-india-rival-china">Bloomberg reported</a>.Russia's relationship with India goes back to the Cold War, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businesstoday.in/india/story/rise-in-trade-with-russia-not-a-temporary-phenomenon-s-jaishankar-429969-2024-05-17">trade between the two countries</a> has grown since Russia started the war in Ukraine. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-india-purchases-us-crude-wti-sanctions-ukraine-war-2024-3">India is a major buyer of Russian oil</a>. Russia is also India's biggest arms supplier.Kwatra underscored that the two countries' trade relationship has remained "resilient."Still, Modi's trip will "rankle many Western observers," Ved Shinde, a researcher and contributor to Australia's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-modi-will-go-moscow">Lowy Institute</a>, wrote in a note on Wednesday."Since the Ukraine war began, India's purchase of cheap oil from Russia has been seen as profiting from troubles in the heart of Europe," Shinde added.<h2 id="05696275-c92a-4ee6-84e4-fd193ca99db2">Modi's visit to Russia will make the US look bad</h2>Just like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-russia-putin-visit-us-wary-manufacturing-supply-chain-diplomacy-2024-6">Putin's visit to supply-chain hot spot Vietnam</a>, India's engagement with Russia isn't a good look for the US, as it comes while Washington is trying to isolate Putin.The US has raised "some concerns" about India's relationship with Russia with New Delhi, Kurt Campbell, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/special-online-briefing-with-deputy-secretary-of-state-kurt-m-campbell/">US deputy secretary of state</a>, said last month.However, Washington acknowledges that India's ties with Russia are different from its ties with the US."We have many areas of alignment, but it is not surprising that there would be areas where we've had perhaps different perspectives, views, historical ties," Campbell said about America's relationship with India.India, for its part, is looking to balance its relationship with the world's key powerbrokers: the US, Russia, and China."There are different degrees in India's multi-alignment. Make no mistake — the United States and its allies are more consequential for India's future than its relationship with Russia," Shinde wrote.India needs to leverage its historical ties with Russia to secure its economy and security, so Modi isn't just in Russia for a goodwill trip.<h2 id="c79db6fd-b57b-4ff5-8f16-bc16c77b8021">Reducing the trade imbalance</h2>A key agenda item for the visit is to reduce a huge bilateral trade imbalance, Kwatra said.India imports about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia, but Russia buys less than 10% of this amount from India, Bloomberg reported.Modi may also touch on China's activities in the Indo-Pacific region, Kwatra added.India is trying to manage its relationship with China, which has been testy since a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-border-clashes-could-cause-more-indian-ocean-activity-2020-7">border dispute in 2020</a>. Modi skipped the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kazakhstan last week.There's also the matter of Russia's ties with China.At the summit last week, Putin said <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/video/kazakhstan-china-government-russia-government-russia-5b1c1a8f402c400d8d703543b0562b51">Russia's relationship with China</a> is in the "best period in history."Modi now needs to cozy up to Putin to counter China's advances."The reason for the time-tested stability in India-Russia ties is to maintain a continental balance in the Eurasian heartland. That is, to balance China," Shinde wrote."Or to put it another way, don't go around making new adversaries when there are already two open fronts — China and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and-china-pick-sides-in-tense-india-pakistan-rivalry-2022-3">Pakistan</a>," he added.

Modi's Russia visit shows India isn't worried about making the US mad

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting leaders from China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia amid heavy sanctions.</li><li>Russia seeks to end diplomatic isolation by engaging with "swing nations" beyond autocratic allies.</li></ul>Russian President Vladimir Putin is having a very social year as his country continues to wage war in Ukraine.So far, Putin has met top leaders from Asian countries including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-bromance-xi-jinping-display-china-remains-wary-russia-2024-5">China,</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-india-modi-putin-hug-west-isolation-big-blow-2024-7">India,</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-russia-putin-visit-us-wary-manufacturing-supply-chain-diplomacy-2024-6">Vietnam,</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74678">Indonesia.</a> That's plenty of publicity for a heavily sanctioned individual from a country facing sweeping trade restrictions.And there's a strategic reason for all those meetings, Sean McFate, an adjunct professor at the Syracuse University Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, told Business Insider.Russia is trying to emerge from diplomatic isolation and is looking to forge strategic relationships beyond autocratic partners like China, North Korea, and Iran, McFate said."Putin is eyeing strategic swing nations like India, which opposes China and trades with Russia," he added. "That gives Russia some advantage over China, as their relationship has chilled somewhat."On Wednesday, Putin rubbed shoulders with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bernama.com/en/news.php?id=2336886">Malaysian Prime Minister</a> Anwar Ibrahim in Russia. The two countries were set to discuss a range of issues, including trade and investment.This meeting came on the heels of Putin's trip to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mongolia-explained-oil-why-didnt-arrest-putin-2024-9">Mongolia,</a> where he met President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh.Mongolia, as a member of the International Criminal Court, should have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-visiting-mongolia-icc-arrest-warrant-could-arrest-unlikely-expert-2024-8">arrested Putin,</a> who has an ICC arrest warrant against him.But the East Asian nation said it couldn't throw Putin in jail because it depends on Russia — an oil and gas giant — for its energy security."This supply is critical to ensure our existence and that of our people," a Mongolian government spokesperson told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/mongolia-failure-arrest-vladimir-putin-international-warrant-international-criminal-court/">Politico.</a><h2 id="f0d1f4e5-36a9-4e82-ba4c-d30ab06a9d6a">It's about neutrality — and the economy</h2>Mongolia's explanation underscores the scale of Russia's economy. It's the 11th largest in the world and has an annual GDP of about $2 trillion, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true">World Bank.</a>While Russia's economy pales in comparison to the US' $27.4 trillion GDP, Russia is still an important partner for many developing economies.In particular, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6.">Russia</a> accounts for about one-tenth of the world's oil production, making it an important resource supplier.Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's single largest trading partner was the European Union.In the last two years, Russia has managed to pivot to supplying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-divert-oil-exports-europe-india-china-circumvent-sanctions-2023-12">China and India,</a> as well as nearly anyone who wants to buy discounted energy, be it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/sri-lanka-source-crude-oil-imports-russia-sanctions-fuel-shortage-2022-10">Sri Lanka</a> when it was in an economic meltdown just two years ago or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkey-saves-2-bln-russian-oil-imports-soar-despite-sanctions-2023-12-18/">Turkey</a> — a NATO member and aspiring EU member.While some countries, like China and Vietnam, have historical ties with Russia, others, like India and Sri Lanka, have also cited economic self-interest for their ongoing relationship with Russia — particularly if they're in difficult conditions themselves. Most, if not all of them, have also taken a neutral position on the war in Ukraine.Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakhstan's deputy prime minister, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-16/kazakhstan-will-not-blindly-follow-sanctions-on-russia-official-says">Bloomberg</a> last month that the country would no longer "blindly follow the sanctions" if the restrictions impact the country's key companies. Russia was Kazakhstan's largest trade partner before the war started.He told the media outlet that some of the sanctions against Moscow had hurt Kazakhstan more than Russia, and the West has done nothing to compensate the Central Asian nation.Using the economy to explain cozy diplomatic relationships with Russia appears to be gaining favor now that the Ukraine war is in its 31st month.After all, Russia is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-resilience-sanctions-costly-unattainable-isolate-large-globally-integrated-economy-2024-2">large and globally integrated economy</a> that even the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-lng-natural-gas-exports-europe-price-asia-2024-8">European Union</a> is still trying to decouple from.Even China, which in 2022 declared its friendship with Russia as a partnership with "no limits," now appears to be more keen on presenting the relationship in more pragmatic, businesslike terms.Just last month, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/gxh/tyb/zyxw/202408/t20240821_11477597.html">China framed</a> Vice Premier Li Qiang's visit to Russia as one that seeks "complementary advantages and huge potential for practical cooperation" between Moscow and Beijing.<h2 id="1d83462f-51a7-4e76-82db-0f7f3244cb44">Russia is wooing the Global South</h2>Partnering with Russia on economic terms is unlikely to alarm the US and Europe, even if there are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-july-8-2024/">concerns</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-rebukes-vietnam-ahead-expected-visit-by-russias-putin-2024-06-17/">strong criticism.</a>"Russia's foreign policy blitz is unlikely to be a threat to the EU and NATO," Syracuse University's McFate said.That's because Moscow is not making military alliances with partner countries to attack Europe, which views Russia as its top threat, he said. For the US, Russia is a distant second after China.Even so, there still may be changes afoot.Moscow is pushing a narrative of the Global South as a force in shaping an alternative world order, with the emerging nations of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brics-summit-countries-interested-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa-2023-8">BRICS</a> — anchored by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — forming an economic bloc.Russia is the BRICS chair this year, and Putin has invited Mongolia to join the group's summit in October. Malaysia applied to join the group, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.antaranews.com/amp/news/324871/joining-brics-based-on-president-elect-prabowos-decision-minister">Indonesia</a> is also considering an invitation to join the bloc. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/no-concrete-step-turkey-brics-membership-erdogans-party-says-2024-09-03/">Turkey</a> has also said it's interested in joining the group. "Indonesia, Malaysia, and Mongolia are an interesting test of those nations' 'neutrality' toward China, the US, international law (e.g., ICC), and the authority of the United Nations system," McFate said.Russia's push for a multipolar world order resonates with countries who desire a more equitable international order. And Moscow has shown it does have influence over lower- and middle-income countries, as evidenced by the non-participation or low-level participation of some Asian countries in June's Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND, a think tank, wrote in a July <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/07/russia-is-a-strategic-spoiler-in-the-indo-pacific.html">commentary</a> for Foreign Policy."While Russia's sway is not at the level of China's or the United States', it is certainly enough to promote its anti-Western interests and disrupt the already precarious regional order," wrote Grossman.Countries around the world are weighing the dynamics."Regional allies will watch with interest to see if great powers can be played off each other," McFate said.

More countries are openly flaunting their ties with Putin. They say it's just business. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The European Union wants to sanction three Chinese companies for supporting Russia, according to reports.</li><li>It's also sizing up firms based in Hong Kong, India, Serbia, and Turkey, per Bloomberg and the FT.</li></ul>The European Union wants to sanction three Chinese companies due to their ties to Russia, according to reports by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/eu-proposes-curbs-on-three-chinese-firms-for-aiding-russia">Bloomberg</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/183af737-ef65-4cea-9b27-06c384a5accd">the Financial Times</a>.It’s also sizing up a business based in India and firms from Hong Kong, Kazakhstan, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Thailand, the outlets said, citing a draft proposal that hasn’t been made public yet.The EU reportedly wants to ban companies from doing business with the listed parties, which it believes could be aiding the Kremlin in its war in Ukraine.Member states voting through the plan would mark the first time that the trading bloc has imposed restrictions on Chinese and Indian businesses since Russia invaded its neighbor in February 2022.In the aftermath of that attack, the EU, the US, and other Western countries rushed to sanction Moscow, by cutting Russia’s banks out of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-swift-sanctions-russia-ukraine-invasion-global-banking-system-2022-2">the SWIFT payments system</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/researchers-say-oil-price-cap-imposed-russia-didnt-exactly-work-2023-2">capping oil prices</a>. The EU alone has imposed 12 sanctions packages over the past two years.Meanwhile, China and India are yet to roll out similar restrictions and have instead stepped up their <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-india-russian-oil-crude-moscow-war-ukraine-volumes-kpler-2023-4">purchases of Russian crude</a>.In April 2023, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/china/president-european-commission-ursula-von-der-leyen-visits-china_en?s=166">traveled to Beijing</a> to warn China’s leader Xi Jinping not to support Russia’s war efforts."This visit is taking place in a challenging and increasingly volatile context, in particular because of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," she said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_23_2147">press conference</a>. "China's position on this is crucial for the European Union.""We also count on China not to provide any military equipment, directly or indirectly, to Russia. Because we all know, arming the aggressor would be against international law. And it would significantly harm our relationship," von der Leyen added.

Chinese and Indian companies are about to be hit by sanctions because of their ties to Russia, reports say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>BRICS' Kazan Declaration on Wednesday contained 134 points — and only one discussed the Ukraine war.</li><li>That point was a call for all parties to abide by UN standards, despite Russia hosting this year.</li></ul>Over two dozen world leaders at this year's BRICS summit ended Wednesday's talks with the Kazan Declaration, a 134-point summary of their agreements.The war in Ukraine was only mentioned once in the 43-page document, and though Russian leader Vladimir Putin hosted the event, its wording is a far cry from the Kremlin's preferred rhetoric.That single paragraph contained none of Russia's usual talking points, instead urging all parties to act in accordance with United Nations standards — a more neutral statement often used by nations like China."We emphasize that all states should act consistently with the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter in their entirety and interrelation," the document reads. "We note with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-23-2024">The Institute for the Study of War</a> wrote on Wednesday that the language in the document shows that Russia, despite its leading position at the summit, still isn't able to shape the stances of friendly world leaders on its war."The Kazan Declaration notably only mentioned Russia's war in Ukraine once," the Washington-based think tank wrote.Russia has denied the sovereignty of Ukraine and said its invasion is justified as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-said-invaded-ukraine-stop-nato-expanding-has-achieved-opposite-2022-5">counter to NATO's expansion</a> and due to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-tries-justifying-ukraine-war-denazification-zelensky-jewish-president-2022-2">debunked allegations that Ukraine is a Nazi-run state.</a>The declaration "demonstrated that Russia has not yet secured the international support nor created the alternative security structure that the Kremlin desires," ISW added.That's significant because Moscow has been trying to get its allies on board with its invasion while the West isolates the Russian economy in response. The US and Ukraine have repeatedly accused China, a founding BRICS member, of supplying Russia with weapons parts and economic support.Yet several founding members of the BRICS group, such as Brazil and India, still maintain strong economic ties with the US amid its support for Kyiv.The Kazan Declaration, meanwhile, condemned Israeli actions in the Middle East in five points, including criticism of a strike on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4">Iranian consulate in Syria</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-attack-lebanon-hezbollah-past-invasion-2024-10">Tel Aviv's invasion of southern Lebanon</a>, and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-gaza-hamas-civilian-casualties-children-deaths-airstrikes-palestinian-2023-10">war in Gaza.</a>World leaders also spent two paragraphs discussing the South Sudanese Civil War.The summit also exposed the difficulties that Western sanctions have inflicted on life in Russia. Leaders met in Kazan, which is in the southwestern Republic of Tatarstan region.Business Insider's Huileng Tan wrote that organizers said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-brics-summit-foreign-attendees-cash-usd-euros-putin-2024-10">card transactions there</a> would be unavailable due to restrictions on Mastercard and Visa cards issued outside Russia.Attendees were instead asked to bring cash in US dollars or euros — the same currencies that Putin has been trying to get his allied countries to drop — to exchange for rubles at Russian banks.

BRICS' new declaration shows Russia's war still can't get the international backing that Moscow wants

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The comments were made by the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR.</li><li>"They supply huge amounts of artillery ammunition, which is critical for Russia," said Kyrylo Budanov.</li></ul>In the wake of the Ukraine war, Russia has formed a close alliance with China, the world's second-biggest economy, and boosted trade ties with other major economies, such as India.Yet according to the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, the Kremlin's most important ally during the war isn't <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">economically and militarily powerful China, </a>but North Korea, an isolated pariah state whose economy has been damaged by decades of sanctions.Speaking at an event in Kyiv Saturday, Budanov said that North Korea's military aid to Russia was of more concern to Ukraine than the support Russia's other allies had provided, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-spy-chief-says-n-korean-military-aid-russia-presents-major-battlefield-2024-09-14/">reported Reuters.</a>"They supply huge amounts of artillery ammunition, which is critical for Russia," he said, pointing to an increase in battlefield hostilities following such deliveries.For decades, North Korea has been among the poorest and most isolated Asian countries, with the UN imposing severe sanctions to curtail its nuclear weapons program.However, the Ukraine war enabled North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to improve his situation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-kim-jong-un-pact-russia-north-korea-authoritarian-world-2024-6">forming a valuable security</a> pact with Russian President Vladimir Putin's Russia in June.As Russia's Ukraine invasion has developed into a grinding war of attrition, both sides are firing huge numbers of shells daily, and replenishing supplies has become a major challenge.Russia has found a new supply line in North Korea, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-alliance-north-korea-proving-to-be-a-win-win-2024-8">has sent millions of shells</a> from its aging stockpiles as well as boosted domestic production to supply the Kremlin's forces.In return, Kim has secured new security pledges from Putin, alongside access to valuable Russian military technology.Ukraine's Western allies, meanwhile, have struggled to keep pace with the demand for shells, meaning Russia has secured an important advantage.North Korea has also provided Russia with ballistic missiles, that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/Military_Power_Publications/DPRK_Russia_NK_Enabling_Russian_Missile_Strikes_Against_Ukraine.pdf">US Defense Intelligence Agency in May </a>said had been used by Russia in attacks on Ukrainian towns.According to reports, North Korean shells and other equipment are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-low-quality-north-korean-shells-injure-troops-ukraine-says-2023-12">often of dubious quality, but </a>they remain an important resource for the Russian military,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-alliance-north-korea-proving-to-be-a-win-win-2024-8"> analysts told Business Insider in August.</a>Russia has also secured supplies of ballistic missiles from Iran in recent weeks, and Budanov reportedly said it was also boosting its capacity to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-not-using-glide-bombs-kursk-hit-self-ukraine-expert-2024-8">produce the "glide bomb" missiles </a>that devastated Ukrainian positions.Ukraine is currently battling to hold back intensifying Russian attacks in Donetsk, east Ukraine, but has seized control of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kursk-incursion-getting-tougher-losses-same-as-ukraine-front-soldiers-2024-9">swath of Russian territory</a> in Kursk.

North Korea may be Russia's most dangerous ally, Ukraine spy chief says 

New Delhi, <keyword id="19895159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="russia" source="keywords">Russia</keyword> is a power with an enormous tradition of statecraft and it is turning more towards Asia or non-West parts of the world, External Affairs Minister <keyword id="19922782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="s-jaishankar" source="keywords">S Jaishankar</keyword> said on Friday, delving into current geopolitical developments and their fall-outs. In an interactive session at the Raisina Dialogue, <keyword id="19920247" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jaishankar" source="keywords">Jaishankar</keyword>, replying to a question on Moscow's growing proximity with Beijing, said it makes sense to give Russia multiple options and that railroading it into a single option and criticising it for that would be like a self-fulfilling prophecy. "I think it makes sense to give Russia multiple options. If we railroad Russia into a single option and say that's really bad because that's the outcome, then you are making it a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said. "Today it is important for other countries, especially in Asia to engage Russia," Jaishankar said. "Russia is a power with an enormous tradition of statecraft. Such powers would never put themselves into a single relationship of an overwhelming nature. It would go against their grain," he said. The external affairs minister was asked to comment on intensification of ties between Russia and China and whether <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> was uncomfortable with it. "What's happened today with Russia essentially is that a lot of doors have been shut to Russia and the West. We know the reasons why. Russia is turning more to Asia or to parts of the world which are not West," he said. The external affairs minister suggested that policies of the West are bringing Russia and China closer. "It's kind of funny -- on the one hand you have people who set policies (and) bring the two together and then you say beware of them coming together," he said. The question was asked by <keyword id="20700294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="michael-fullilove" source="keywords">Michael Fullilove</keyword>, Executive Director of Lowy Institute, Australia. Jaishankar's comments came days after he said India has had a "stable" and "very friendly" relationship with Russia, and that Moscow never hurt New Delhi's interests. The ties between India and Russia remained strong notwithstanding Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. India's import of Russian crude oil has gone up significantly despite increasing disquiet over it in many Western countries. India has not yet condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and it has been maintaining that the crisis must be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue. In his remarks, Jaishankar also highlighted India's G20 presidency and how it ensured induction of the African Union as a permanent member of the grouping. He noted that if the G20 could be expanded, the permanent membership of the UN Security Council can also be increased. "When the sort of smoke clears and people look back on this G20, it will surely be recognised for the fact that the African Union's membership was agreed upon," he said. The external affairs minister also highlighted India's foreign policy priorities including combating terrorism and attempting to ensure inclusive global welfare. It could be millets, it could be yoga, it could be solar energy, it could be combating terrorism, it could be black money. You today see an India, which is really pushing and trying to get itself and its ideas on the global stage, he said.

Russia is a power with enormous tradition of statecraft: Jaishankar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are meeting in Kazakhstan Wednesday. </li><li>It comes amid increasing tensions between two of the group's most powerful members. </li></ul>The leaders of a club of countries touted by Russia and China as a counterweight to Western global power are meeting this week in Kazakhstan.At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Kazakhstan's capital Astana, Russia's President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet China's President Xi Jinping.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-arrives-kazakhstan-russia-china-dominated-sco-summit-2024-07-03/">During their discussion, they will reportedly </a>seek ways to expand the organization as part of their shared mission to roll back US global power.But despite their "no limits" partnership brokered over shared enmity toward the US and its NATO allies, there are growing differences between frenemies Putin and Xi.<h2 id="0cd26d3b-51d1-4175-99ae-48c549e8681e">Ukraine has shifted the balance of power</h2>The leaders are in fierce competition for influence over the original members of the SCO — the Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.The SCO was formed as a regional security pact, but has in recent years expanded to include India, Pakistan, and Iran. Belarus, another opponent of NATO, is expected to be admitted this week.The Central Asian republics were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are seen as traditionally part of the Kremlin's sphere of influence.But the Ukraine war has shifted the balance of power.Russia's Ukraine invasion has eaten up the Kremlin's resources, money, and energy, while countries trading with Russia run the risk of incurring Western sanctions.Meanwhile, Beijing has been quietly seizing advantage, brokering trade deals, and building political influence in the region."The war in Ukraine has proven to the central Asian countries that the diversification of their ties with the world is key to their successful existence in the region," Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/03/xi-jinping-central-asia-trip-china-vies-regional-influence-russia">told The Guardian.</a>China is building car plants and power stations in Ukbekistan and Kazakhstan, brokering surveillance software deals, and expanding its direct railway line into Kazakhstan, to further strengthen trade links.Trade between China and Central Asia grew by 27% in 2023 to $89 billion, <a target="_blank" href="https://eurasianet.org/china-reports-robust-trade-growth-with-central-asian-states">according to Chinese customs data.</a>Although Russia is likely to be concerned by the developments, it cannot do much about them.<h2 id="70abeace-ebc2-43fc-a254-07ca4ddc7271">A lopsided partnership</h2>Russia has become increasingly dependent on China for diplomatic and economic support amid attempts by the West to isolate it over the Ukraine war."The importance of Chinese aid and indirect support for Ukraine takes precedence for Moscow and will shape its approach toward Beijing as long as the confrontation with the West continues," wrote Emil Avdaliani, a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, in January for <a target="_blank" href="https://cepa.org/article/china-uses-crises-to-build-central-asia-influence/">the Centre for European Policy Analysis.</a>Russia is seeking to strengthen trade with the Central Asian republics and, according to reports, is using them to obtain goods banned under Western sanctions. But it can't compete with China's economic might.While Russia has brandished its ties with China as proof of the failure of the West to isolate it, it's a friendship that comes at a steep cost."We are friends with Russia but at the same time, we are looking for opportunities," Mirshohid Aslanov, founder of the Tashkent-based think tank Center for Progressive Reform, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/beijing-and-moscow-go-from-no-limits-friendship-to-frenemies-in-russias-backyard-52b3f1a4?st=4s1fan3skw96t37&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">The Wall Street Journal.</a> "Very eagerly, we are looking eastwards."

Russia's frenemy China is quietly trying to dampen Putin's influence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indian Prime Minister Modi gave Russian President Putin a bear hug during an official visit to Moscow.</li><li>Modi's visit coincided with a Russian missile strike that hit a Ukrainian children's hospital and ahead of a NATO summit.</li></ul>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made Russia the destination of his first bilateral visit after securing a historic third term in office. On top of that, he gave <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fear-china-behind-india-modi-display-of-friendship-russia-putin-2024-7">Russian President Vladimir Putin a bear hug</a> while he was there.The spectacle involving the two leaders came on the same day Russia hit a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-challenge-russian-narrative-on-kyiv-childrens-hospital-attack-2024-7">Ukrainian children's hospital with a missile strike</a> and ahead of a three-day NATO leaders' summit in Washington DC that started on Tuesday."It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1810437647581716707">post on X on Monday.</a>On Monday, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-july-8-2024/">US State Department</a> said it has raised concerns with New Delhi about India's relationship with Russia.Modi's advances toward Putin come less than two months after the usually reserved Chinese leader <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/hugs-not-full-socialist-era-kiss-putin-xi-beijing-2024-05-17/">Xi Jinping hugged Putin</a> not once, but twice — dealing another blow to the West's isolation of Russia.<h2 id="390a51d2-9be0-469a-acc9-c9f006ae04ff">What India wants from Russia</h2>Like Xi, Modi has his own agenda for cozying up to Putin during the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">two-day visit.</a>India is an important strategic partner for the US and the rest of the world, which is aiming to diversify supply chains away from China.Over the last two years, India-Russia trade has grown. The relationship is underscored by energy, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-divert-oil-exports-europe-india-china-circumvent-sanctions-2023-12">India has become a major buyer of Russian oil</a>.But there's a huge trade imbalance that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">Modi is seeking to narrow.</a> India imported about $60 billion of goods a year from Russia in the last fiscal year. In comparison, Russia bought less than $5 billion of goods from India."The structure of trade is highly asymmetric, with India running a chronic large trade deficit with Russia," Rajiv Biswas, an international economist who's also the author of "<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow sponsored noindex" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?amazonTrackingID=bi-auto-70656-20&amp;h=2252c62746e53e506c655ce3df395bcea3ecbee5e1b11653f5e13361d3be9338&amp;postID=668deb6674bca98bb4de2ad6&amp;postSlug=russia-economy-india-modi-putin-hug-west-isolation-big-blow-2024-7&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FAsian-Megatrends-Rajiv-Biswas%2Fdp%2F1137441887">Asian Megatrends</a>," told Business Insider.To be sure, Russia's import of Indian products — particularly engineering and electronic equipment — has surged by 35% over the last fiscal year, added Biswas. But, it's from a low base.<a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-india-modi-putin-fe2b1d0abbb3e67e6f3ff88f02ce658c">Vinay Kwatra,</a> India's Foreign Secretary, said after Modi and Putin's meeting that the two have pledged to boost bilateral trade from nearly $65 billion last year to $100 billion by 2030.In addition to oil, India is looking to import more fertilizers. Russia is looking to import more Indian agricultural and industrial products.On the political front, India — which has been mired in a <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-border-clashes-could-cause-more-indian-ocean-activity-2020-7">border dispute with China since 2020</a> — is also looking to leverage on Beijing's cozy relationship with Moscow."Security is an increasingly important factor driving India's relations with Russia," said Biswas."Due to Russia's close ties with China, India can turn to Russia to help defuse crises when bilateral geopolitical tensions flare up between India and China," he added.After all, Putin chose to head to China — rather than to India — in his first foreign state visit in May after he was sworn in for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-vladimir-putin-presidential-election-vote-landslide-win-2024-3">fifth presidential term.</a>Xi definitely welcomed Putin; after all, the Chinese leader initiated the hug.

The West's attempts at isolating Russia just took another big blow

<ul class="summary-list"><li>New US sanctions on Russia may make its oil trade with India more difficult, sources told Reuters.</li><li>The curbs will add to freight costs, diminishing the discount Moscow can offer on its crude oil.</li></ul>Washington's latest sanctions on Moscow are sparking grimmer outlooks for Russia's energy trade with India, sources told <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-sanctions-threaten-russian-oil-sales-india-2024-02-28/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a>. The three anonymous industry sources outlined growing concern among Indian refineries about the new restrictions. Institutions worry that it may become harder to find vessels to transport Russian crude, as well as adding to freight costs. Such factors could eventually shrink the discount on Russian oil, diminishing the appeal of the trade. Cheaper barrels were a key reason India became the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude last year, importing 1.66 million barrels per day in 2023.Though sanctions are nothing new to Moscow since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the US applied an extensive batch last Friday, marking the war's second anniversary and penalizing Russia for the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-life-career-of-putin-critic-alexei-navalny-2023-9">death of Alexei Navalny</a>, an preeminent opposition leader in the country.Among targets was Russia's leading tanker firm, Sovcomflot, on accusations that it violates the Group of Seven's $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian crude. 14 tankers tied to the group were also targeted, adding to a growing list of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-sanction-oil-tankers-shadow-fleet-crude-exports-price-cap-2024-2">sanctioned vessels</a>.While the price cap was introduced in December 2022, the US and its allies have taken to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-shadow-fleet-oil-tankers-sanctions-ukraine-enforcement-price-cap2024-2">stricter enforcement</a> in recent months.As Indian state refineries negotiate the next annual deal with Russia's Rosneft company, they're already seeing a thinner discount, sources told Reuters. Under current terms, Rosneft offers an $8 to $9 discount per barrel to Dubai prices. But it has limited its offer to a $3 to $3.50 discount for the future term.Indian oil companies are primarily <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/crude-oil-prices-india-russia-trade-geopolitics-opec-supply-puri-2024-2">focused on securing the cheapest crude available</a>, the country's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri previously said. It's why flows from the Middle East, its traditional source of energy exports, hit a record low last year.Separately, however, he's noted that Indian trade will shift away from Russia if sanctions are violated. This occurred in January, further incentivized by Saudi Arabia's own discount on exports."When Russian prices don't conform, we buy from Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia," <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/india-mideast-russian-crude-exports-discounts-sanctions-price-cap-puri-2024-1?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Puri then said</a>.Apart from straining the energy trade, a harder line from Washington is taking a toll on Russia elsewhere. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo recently cited that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-financial-flows-sanctions-us-dollar-access-treasury-ukraine-war-2024-2">financial flows to Moscow have withered</a>, as global institutions fear losing access to the dollar.

Russia’s energy trade with India could be strained amid fresh sanctions, report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's Xi Jinping negotiated a truce with India's leader, Narendra Modi.</li><li>They agreed to a patrolling arrangement on a disputed Himalayan border.</li></ul>At the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">BRICS summit</a> in Russia this week, China's leader Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands for the first time in five years.The symbolic moment came after a deal was struck to resolve a long-standing feud between the Asian superpowers.In the lead-up to the summit, the countries announced they had reached a patrolling agreement that would reduce tensions along a disputed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-buying-new-light-tanks-for-himalayan-mountain-warfare-2023-6">Himalayan border.</a>The dispute had led to deadly hand-to-hand combat in recent years, taking the lives of 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers.After their meeting at the summit hosted by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Xi and Modi said they would continue discussions on resolving the issue.<h2 id="997cee52-7fd6-4283-bf77-94e40a12b5cc">A setback for the US</h2>Some analysts believe it is a development that's unlikely to be welcomed in Washington, DC.The US has sought to recruit India to help it contain China's growing regional aggression alongside other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a security pact that also includes Japan and Australia."So definitely, this is a setback for the United States of America's Indo-Pacific outlook, given the kind of rapprochement we are seeing in India-China relations, and particularly India, China and Russia coming together," Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, told Business Insider."Putin, Xi, and Modi meeting definitely signals that there is a kind of understanding under the carpet that has happened, which is quite subtle," he said.It's an assessment echoed by Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international affairs at Bucknell University."The thaw in India-China relations is a boon to both countries. This is particularly significant for China because India may now be less inclined to confront Beijing as part of Quad," Zhu told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-deal-raises-questions-about-us-indo-pacific-strategy-/7838623.html">Voice of America. </a>"In this sense, the effectiveness of Quad would be diluted with a less enthusiastic India."<h2 id="baf534cf-4366-41b8-b9ef-d526ffe91fda">Competition between Asia's rival powers intensifies</h2>Tensions have been building between China and India for years.As the two biggest economies in Asia, the countries have long jostled for regional power, with the dispute over the Himalayan border a flashpoint that led to clashes in 2020, 2021, and 2022.Amid the stand-off, Chinese vessels have reportedly surveilled the Indian Ocean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/another-chinese-research-vessel-spotted-off-india-fuelling-unease-2024-03-11/">what experts told Reuters</a> was a likely intelligence-gathering operation, while India has strengthened its security ties with China's chief global rival, the US.In 2017 India played a key role in restarting the Quad, an alliance designed as a bulwark against growing Chinese influence and aggression in the Asia-Pacific region.But India has long sought to balance its relationship with rival superpowers the US and China, and does not at this point want to tie itself too closely to either side, say analysts.In addition to being a member of the Quad Alliance, it is a founding member of the BRICS, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-asia-countries-flaunt-russia-putin-diplomacy-relationship-brics-2024-9">association of non-Western economies </a>that China has sought to transform into an alternative global economic power base to the US.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="114594056" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div>"This explains why it remains part of multilateral groupings with contradictory goals," said Praveen Donthi, a South Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group in Washington, DC, pointing to both its membership of the US-aligned Quad and China-dominated BRIC group.The truce comes with China on the back foot diplomatically, said Panda, pointing to its damaged relations with Europe and the US after its support f<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</a>"One could draw a conclusion at this point that probably the Chinese are more interested to rebuild the ties with India than the other way round," said Panda.He said there's also the possibility that Xi has reached an agreement with Modi behind the scenes for India to remain silent if China acts on its longstanding ambition to seize back control of Taiwan.Such a move would likely draw in the US and its other regional allies, who have pledged to help defend<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-drone-swarms-uav-us-playing-catch-up-production-2024-10"> Taiwan's independence.</a>"I think China's bigger ambition and target is the Taiwan issue, and therefore they would not really like to continue the kind of tensions they were engaged in with India for the last three to four years," he said."Therefore, they would like to rebuild, and they would like to ensure that India does not react to the Taiwan issue so sensitively."In any case, its a setback in US attempts to include India in a deeper security alliance, he said."For a long time, the US has tried to develop security and defense ties with India," said Panda.For the time being, a truce suits both Russian and Chinese interests, Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. But, he added, tensions remain.He said that though both parties have opened discussions about the border dispute, the underlying problem remains unresolved, and future flare-ups are likely.Donthi said the progress between the leaders could also be derailed if tensions between the US and China increase."This comes as a relief after four years of eyeball-to-eyeball troop deployment in the Himalayas. However, it's only the beginning," he said.

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