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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Narendra Modi's party won far fewer seats than expected in India's election.</li><li>Modi's weakened majority may make it tougher for his government to push through reforms.</li></ul>Narendra Modi looks set to secure a historic third term leading Indian despite his party winning <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-2024-6">far fewer seats than exit polls had suggested</a>.The outcome sent <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/india-stock-market-news-narendra-modi-election-nse-nifty-50-2024-6">Mumbai-listed stocks plummeting</a> — and Modi's significantly weakened majority could be a source of concern for American businesses, too.Modi's decade as Prime Minister has often been controversial, with his vision of building a "divine India" fueling <a target="_blank" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/05/india/india-modi-ram-temple-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html">a rise in Hindu nationalism</a> that's threatened to marginalize other religious groups.But his pro-growth, pro-business policies have boosted growth and drawn in huge amounts of foreign investment — as well as winning the support of some of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-india-election-economy-russia-oil-wealth-dimon-cook-musk-2024-5">loudest voices on Wall Street</a>."Modi has done an unbelievable job in India," JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy-inflation-recession-stagflation-geopolitics-crypto-bitcoin-2024-4">the Economic Club of New York</a> in April. "I know the liberal press here, they beat the hell out of him. He's taken 400 million people out of poverty."Elon Musk has also <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1781541775183610310">posted on X</a> about his desire to visit India and meet with Modi. The pair are expected to discuss Tesla's plan to build a multibillion-dollar new factory in the world's most-populated country.Meanwhile, Apple CEO Cook said on a November earnings call that India is an "incredibly exciting market" and a "major focus of ours" given the explosive growth in potential customers as locals get richer. Modi has also met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft boss Satya Nadella, and Alphabet's Sundar Pichai in recent years.<h2 id="cc1fb394-3381-4ed0-9ccc-2a81f77556e6">Political stability</h2>"I think most investors have read the tea leaves and have realized that some of the political stability and predictable policies that they expect, that they desire when it comes to making investment decisions, is likely to be available in India," Rajesh Kumar Singh, a trade official for India, told Business Insider in January at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/davos-global-elite-saying-about-ai-behind-closed-doors-2024-1">the World Economic Forum in Davos</a>."I think the trick for India is going to be political stability, going forward for a period of time — because I think a lot of the economic fundamentals are there," Andy Baldwin, a partner at EY, said at the same conference.But Modi's significantly reduced majority could erode that sense of stability and make it tougher for him to pass further pro-market reforms, analysts said on Tuesday.<h2 id="f9ebf5af-aee7-426d-b5c8-03320c6cb9dc">China hedge</h2>"The fear will be that if he has to rely on alliances with smaller parties, any market-friendly policies will be diluted," Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, wrote in a research note."Some may now worry that India's lofty earnings rating leaves it exposed on the downside now that the political narrative may not be quite as clear cut as once thought," he added.One appeal of India for the likes of Dimon, Musk, and Cook will likely have been Modi's firm grip on power, as USA Inc aims to hedge its bets on China given its strained relationship with the US and post-pandemic economic woes.The surprise election result could undermine that confidence.

Modi's election surprise raises questions about India for USA Inc 

New Delhi, <keyword id="19955699" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crisil-ratings" source="keywords">Crisil Ratings</keyword> on Monday said the credit quality outlook for Indian corporates remains positive for the April-September period of the 2024-25 fiscal year with upgrades continuing to outpace downgrades. In the last fiscal year, <keyword id="19898320" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crisil" source="keywords">Crisil</keyword> gave 409 rating upgrades and 228 downgrades. Some export-linked sectors, such as textile and seafood, saw a higher downgrade rate due to subdued global demand or high-cost inventory that impacted profitability. "India Inc's credit quality outlook is positive for the first half of fiscal 2025 with upgrades expected to outnumber downgrades. Multiplier effect of government capex will continue to drive infrastructure and linked sectors. Healthy balance sheets will continue to support the credit quality outlook, with capex funding seen prudent," <keyword id="21152659" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crisil-rating" source="keywords">Crisil Rating</keyword> said. It said the outstanding bank credit is expected to cross Rs 200 lakh crore by March 2025, from Rs 172 lakh crore a year ago, even though there would be moderation in the rate of credit growth. The Indian economy with a GDP growth of 6.8 per cent is expected to remain the fastest-growing large economy in the current fiscal. The growth will, however, moderate from 7.6 per cent expected in 2023-24 as high interest rates and lower fiscal impulse to growth will temper demand, according to Crisil. Crisil Ratings Managing Director <keyword id="20983741" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gurpreet-chhatwal" source="keywords">Gurpreet Chhatwal</keyword> said the three key pillars of India Inc's credit quality -- deleveraged balance sheets, sustained domestic demand and government-led capex -- kept the upgrade rate elevated in the second half of FY24. "With balance sheets in most sectors at their healthiest, capacity utilisation around peak levels and expected interest rate cuts, a broad-based pick-up in private capex is finally in sight," Chhatwal said, adding that sectors with export linkages could have some uncertainties around them. Stating that bank credit outstanding could cross Rs 200 lakh crore by March 2025, credit growth will remain healthy, albeit a tad lower at 14 per cent this fiscal year. Credit growth was 16 per cent in the last fiscal year that ended on March 31. Overall gross non-performing assets (NPAs) will continue to trend down and touch fresh decadal lows, it said. Crisil Ratings Senior Director and Chief Ratings Officer <keyword id="21152658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="krishnan-sitaraman" source="keywords">Krishnan Sitaraman</keyword> said there is a likelihood of interest rate cuts globally in 2024. "We expect the RBI to cut interest rates in the second half of the current fiscal," Sitaraman said, adding that credit quality is likely to remain positive. The RBI is scheduled to announce its first monetary policy review for the current fiscal on April 5. For FY25, as many as 21 of 26 corporate sectors have strong to favourable credit quality outlook, marked by robust balance sheets and healthy operating cash flows -- expected to be as much, or higher, than in fiscal 2024. These include auto-component manufacturers, companies in the hospitality and education sectors where the credit quality is supported by healthy domestic demand. It also includes sectors benefiting from the government's infrastructure spending, such as construction companies, and steel, cement and capital goods manufacturers. Four corporate sectors -- specialty chemicals, agrochemicals, textile cotton spinning and diamond polishers -- are facing headwinds given their fortunes are aligned with global macroeconomic conditions, which are subdued at present.

Credit quality outlook of India Inc positive in first half of FY25: Crisil Ratings

<ul><li>The IT sector’s wage bill growth fell to 3% in Q3 FY24 from 22% in the same quarter last year.</li><li>Sectors like <keyword id="19931572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fmcg" source="keywords">FMCG</keyword>, metals, power, cement, pharma, chemicals also saw single digit wage growth in Q3.</li><li>The <keyword id="19910880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bfsi" source="keywords">BFSI</keyword> sector remained an outlier as its wage bill growth was strong at 22% in Q3.</li></ul>The age of sharp salary hikes seems to be over. <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>’s top 500 listed private companies’ wage growth has moderated to 9% year on year in the third quarter of FY24. Including public sector enterprises, BSE500’s wage inflation slowed to 11%. In the same quarter last year, it was at 20%, says a report by <keyword id="20055355" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nuvama-institutional-equities" source="keywords">Nuvama Institutional Equities</keyword>. “The worrying aspect of wage bill growth is the sharper moderation in private sector wage bill growth. Private sector wage bill growth has moderated to 9% YoY—a decadal-low (ex-Covid). Such a sharp slowdown, if it persists, could weigh on consumption, particularly the premium segment,” says <keyword id="19895773" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nuvama" source="keywords">Nuvama</keyword>’s Q3FY24 Earnings Review. Unsurprisingly, the IT sector saw the most moderation, as its wage bill growth in Q3 at just 3% year on year. In the corresponding quarter last year, it was at 22%. “For IT companies, headcount is now contracting year on year. While this could bottom out, sustained recovery is needed for its revival,” said Nuvama. As per Xpheno, the top eight IT services firms in India<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/it-bellwethers-slash-headcount-in-fy24-but-indian-techies-find-a-home-with-gccs/articleshow/107679515.cms"> reduced their headcount by</a> 75,000 in the last one year. Sectors like FMCG, metals &amp; mining, power, cement, pharma, chemicals saw single digit wage growth. “Wage bill growth is moderating in most other spaces as well. For most sectors, wage bill growth is below the levels seen a year ago,” said Nuvama. On the other hand, sectors like auto, consumer services, durables and real estate sector saw double digit wage bill growth in the quarter. BFSI sector remains an outlier The only sector which saw strong wage bill growth in Q3 is banking, financial services and insurance sector; which came in at 22%. The average annual attrition in the sector is still high, at around 30-35%. In private banks, it’s <a href="https://www.cnbctv18.com/business/companies/rbi-closely-watching-high-attrition-at-some-private-banks-says-shaktikanta-das-18207931.htm">much more pronounced</a> at 40-45%. While private sector banks saw their wage bill go up by 23%, in PSU banks, the growth was at 20%. Financial services, however, saw its wage bill go up by 29%. Wage bill growth <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Sector </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q3 FY24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q3 FY23 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">IT </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">22% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">BFSI </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">22% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">19% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Metals &amp; Mining </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Energy </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">12% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Consumer services </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">14% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">24% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Auto </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">14% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Durables </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">14% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FMCG </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">12% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Industrials </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">11% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Power </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Cement </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Real estate </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">12% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">32% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Pharmaceuticals </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Chemicals </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">0% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8% </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source: Capitaline, Nuvama Research Dwindling EBIDTA growth The Nuvama report also says that in the third quarter, BSE500’s revenue growth remained subdued at 6-7%, similar to what was seen in the first half of FY24. The earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization (EBIDTA) growth on other hand, dwindled to 10% from 20% seen in the first half. “This is mainly due to fading input price tailwinds and operating de-leverage. PAT growth, however, held up in high teens. All in all, chinks are developing in profit momentum with EBITDA slowing sharply as margin tailwinds fade while demand fails to recover,” Nuvama said. Even as the aggregate profit growth held up to 16% YoY in Q3, a weak revenue growth does not spell good news for corporate employees who are hoping for a chunky wage hike. “Given a weak top line, wage bill growth is likely to remain subdued going ahead as well, potentially weighing on urban consumption,” says Nuvama.

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Modi's election surprise raises questions about India for USA Inc

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Credit quality outlook of India Inc positive in first half of FY25: Crisil Ratings

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India Inc’s wage bill growth halves in Q3, close to decadal lows

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