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The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one presented in February, indicating the government's strong commitment to move along the <keyword id="20099794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-prudence" source="keywords">fiscal prudence</keyword> path, said experts on Tuesday. According to the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the total expenditure in Budget Estimates (BE) 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 48,20,512 crore of which total <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> is Rs 11,11,111 crore. The total expenditure in the Interim Budget presented in February was estimated at Rs 47,65,768 crore of which total capital expenditure was Rs 11.11 lakh crore. Debadatta Chand, Managing Director &amp; CEO, <keyword id="19920717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bank-of-Baroda" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bank of Baroda" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bank of Baroda">Bank of Baroda</keyword>, said the Union Budget complements the main takeaways from the Economic Survey and focusses clearly on medium term development of the economy. "The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one. The budget has shown strong intent on moving along the fiscal prudence path and targeted the <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> at 4.9 per cent for the year," he said. The said action will keep the growth steady as well as robust not only for economy but also banking. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, said the budget has kept the capital expenditure unchanged and pared the fiscal deficit to 4.9 per cent of GDP. "The anticipated reiteration of the reduction in the fiscal deficit to below 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY2026 is welcome. Interestingly, the new medium term fiscal consolidation path has been linked to a reduction in the debt/GDP ratio instead of continued compression of the fiscal deficit/GDP ratio," she said. Buoyed by improvement in revenue collection, the government has lowered fiscal deficit target to 4.9 per cent for the current <keyword id="19910979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-year" source="keywords">financial year</keyword> as against 5.1 per cent estimated in February's interim budget. Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader Economic Advisory, PwC India, said that fiscal prudence is the highlight of the full Union Budget 2024-25. The government has gone with realistic projections on its revenue and expenditure estimates and refrained from announcing overly populist measures. "The majority of the allocations, including the capex allocation, are as outlined in the interim budget, thus providing continuity. The capex being kept at INR 11.11 trillion was expected, given that the ability to consume this allocation is limited due to disruption from the elections in the first quarter and the second quarter being typically slowed down by the monsoons," Banerjee said. Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) President Ranjeet Kumar Agarwal said the government has announced five schemes to facilitate employment and skilling for 4.1 crore youth over the next five years with a central outlay of Rs 2 lakh crore. "This is a welcome step that will create a skilled workforce to address the existing deficit and generate <keyword id="19972727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-opportunities" source="keywords">employment opportunities</keyword>. Additionally, financial support for loans up to Rs 10 lakh for higher education will help students pursue higher education and acquire skills," he added. Indian Institute of Insolvency Professionals of ICAI (IIIPI) Chairman Ashok Haldia said the budget proposals for an integrated technology platform and sprucing up NCLT infrastructure will provide a fillip to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) regime. IIIPI is promoted by ICAI. Meanwhile, Kumarmangalam Vijay, Partner, JSA Advocates and Solicitors, opined that in its new avatar, it seems that the Modi government is keen to deliver on its promise of 'ease of doing business'. "Its focus on making it simpler is evident from the abolition of the angel tax, the increase in new income tax regime thresholds, new Vivad se Vishwas Scheme 2024 for the resolution of pending cases and the increase in the threshold for appeal by tax departments at various levels, decriminalising the non-reporting of shares received from non-resident employers and reducing the period for re-opening of the cases," Vijay said. The Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI) said there has been a focus on the manufacturing sector in the budget. Measures have been taken for simplifying the FDI/ODI rules and regulations, and the <keyword id="21847964" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-regimes" source="keywords">tax regimes</keyword>. The enhanced Mudra loan limit and the abolition of angel tax are all set to incentivize the startup and MSME ecosystem of the country. "The nine priorities identified in this progressive and inclusive budget 2024 are aimed at generating ample opportunities for all. Besides agricultural reforms, the budget focuses on skilling, educating and employing the youth, a priority that the ICSI has been concentrating on," said ICSI President B Narasimhan. Rajesh Magow, Co-Founder and Group CEO, MakeMyTrip, said the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure development is commendable. Enhanced road infrastructure will bolster the travel and tourism sector. "We also welcome the initiatives to develop iconic spiritual and cultural sites into world-class tourist hotspots," Magow said. Furthermore, he said the provision of credit for TCS against income tax under 'Income from Salaries' is logical and will provide much-desired relief to taxpayers who travel internationally.

Budget size almost unchanged from interim, shows govt's commitment to fiscal prudence: Experts

Strong growth and a narrower <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> can lead to a <keyword id="20424939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sovereign-rating" source="keywords">sovereign rating</keyword> upgrade for <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>, a German brokerage said on Monday. The government's commitments on fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent in FY25 and further down to 4.5 per cent in FY26 "look more credible now", analysts at <keyword id="19960549" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Deutsche-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Deutsche Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Deutsche Bank">Deutsche Bank</keyword> said, pointing out that the number came in at 5.6 per cent in FY24 as against the budgeted 5.8 per cent. Courtesy the higher than expected dividend announcement by the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) at Rs 2.1 lakh crore, the fiscal deficit for FY25 can come down to 5 per cent as against the budgeted 5.1 per cent. On growth, the note said it expects real GDP expansion to come at 6.9 per cent in FY25 and go down further to 6.5 per cent in FY26. "Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit opens up room for ratings upgrade," the note said. "A faster-than-anticipated pace of fiscal consolidation could pave the way for a sooner-rather-than-later sovereign rating upgrade for India," the analysts said. It can be noted that global rating agency <keyword id="20043943" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P">S&amp;P</keyword> had last week revised up the outlook on its sovereign rating for India to "positive" from "stable" earlier. On Friday, official data suggested that the economy grew at a faster clip of 8.2 per cent in the March quarter, which takes the FY24 real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> to 7.6 per cent. The note said the Indian economy has exhibited "remarkable resilience" despite higher rates for longer, the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid prior to that, though a strong pickup in real GDP growth during FY24 can be also attributed materially to a very low <keyword id="21922336" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-deflator" source="keywords">GDP deflator</keyword>. It explained that nominal GDP growth slowed to 9.6 per cent in FY24, from 14.2 per cent in FY23 and 19 per cent in FY22. But in real terms, GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in FY24 from 7 per cent in FY23, thanks to a collapse in the GDP deflator to 1.4 per cent in FY24 from 7.6 per cent year-on-year in FY23 and 9.4 per cent in FY22. Deutsche Bank also advised caution on reading the headline GDP numbers, pointing out that while the real GDP grew 8.2 per cent, real GVA (gross value added) growth was 1 percentage point lower at 7.2 per cent.

Strong growth, lower fiscal deficit may lead to India rating upgrade: Deutsche Bank

July is abuzz with news of the upcoming union budget, which Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> will present on July 23, 2024. But you couldn't care less, because you’ve already decided that you’ll tune it all out, as soon as our beloved Nirmala Tai starts her budget presentations in the parliament. We get it, having spent less than three decades on this planet, we GenZers have already had a tough time understanding the complexities of the modern world affecting our daily life. When it comes to our national finances, we just can’t seem to make any sense of the words spoken, and the general vibe of complicated terms like <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fiscal-Deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> and <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Capital-Expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> is extremely off-putting! So, why bother? Don’t worry, we have got you covered. As we step into an unforgiving adult world, it's time to tune in, as the Union Budget often has direct implications on your personal finances. To help you start, here’s your very own budget glossary, which will let you decode all budget-related mumbo-jumbo, the <keyword id="20246469" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GenZ" source="keywords">GenZ</keyword> way. A: Annual Financial Statement Think of this as a simple breakdown of how much money the government has received and spent over three time periods — the current year, the previous year, and the budget (upcoming) year. This is required under Article 112 of the Indian Constitution. It has three parts: <ul><li>The consolidated fund of India, consisting of revenue received by the government as direct and indirect taxes, and loans</li><li>Contingency fund of India for emergencies, or disaster management</li><li>Public Account of India — our money that the government receives under various schemes like PPF, small savings and more </li></ul>B: <keyword id="20313429" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Budget-Estimates" source="keywords">Budget Estimates</keyword> Say you set aside Rs 25,000 this month from your salary, to buy an uber-cool smartwatch. But you find a sweet steal deal on Amazon and manage to grab it for just Rs 20,000. The Rs 25,000 you set aside from your monthly budget was an estimate. In the same way, the government sets aside a specific sum for every project or scheme based on its estimates, but in the end, the actual expenses may vary. C: Capital Expenditure See the government allocating funds left, right and centre for building highways, improving rail connectivity, or developing other infrastructures? That's capital expenditure, or capex. The idea of undertaking capex is to build something for the long term, something which keeps contributing to the economy’s growth, long after its creation. D: Divestments Divesting means to sell off and let go of one’s stakeholding or ownership in a company or enterprise. The government generally divests its shares in various public undertakings to raise funds. Remember the much-touted IPO of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) LIC’s IPO in May 2022? That was the government divesting 3.5% of its share in the insurance behemoth. E: Economic Survey This is a snapshot (and a pretty long one) of all the major economic developments that have taken place in the country during a particular financial year. It is usually released a day before the full budget, highlighting the performance of various government schemes, trends seen in various sectors of the economy, the policy initiatives taken by the government, and where the economy is going in the near future. F: Fiscal Deficit As daunting as it sounds, what if I tell you that most of us are perennially in a state of fiscal deficit? Surprised? It's simply when your spending exceeds your earnings. So, it gives you an estimate of how much you need to borrow, to tide over. Turns out, the government isn't faring great either, given that its fiscal deficit, or the difference between its revenue and expenditure currently stands at a staggering Rs 16,85,494 crores, or about 5.1% of India’s <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword>. G: GDP Gross Domestic Product is the collective monetary value of all the goods produced and services rendered in the country, during a particular period. In other words, it is the combined total of the economic output that is generated by 141.72 crore Indians like us, expressed monetarily. As of 2024, India’s GDP stood at $3.9 trillion. GDP is a measure of how healthy and strong an economy is. Some of the world’s biggest economies, like China and the US, have a GDP of $18.5 trillion and $28.7 trillion, respectively. G: <keyword id="20411624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gender-Budgeting" source="keywords">Gender budgeting</keyword> When achieving gender equality, and addressing challenges women face by way of allocating resources and formulating policies accordingly becomes key to preparing a budget, it's known as gender-based budgeting. Such a budget ensures that distribution of public resources between men and women is not heavily skewed towards the former. In 2023-24, India’s gender budget swelled 4.3% to Rs 2.23 trillion, which is about 4.9% of the overall budget. H: <keyword id="21458145" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Household-Income" source="keywords">Household Income</keyword> The total money earned by everyone in your home makes for your household income. So, if you are a family of 4, where your younger sister is studying, and you, along with your parents earn a total of say Rs 25,00,000 per annum, that is your household income. As of 2022-23, India’s average household income stood at Rs 3.6 lakh/annum. O: Outcome of Budget This is a statement of the outcomes achieved by various government departments with the budget allocated to them last year. It answers questions like was the money spent on purposes it was sanctioned for? What was the output achieved? Think of this as a report card, detailing your progress, or money spent during the year, and is indicative of what more needs to be done to achieve the desired results. R: Revised estimates Say are saving up Rs 70,000 for your buying the latest iPhone. But a few months down, you realize that the price point has changed as the release date approaches, and it is likely to cost about Rs 85,000 now. You see, your initial estimate was Rs 70,000, but then, you revised your estimated requirement to Rs 85,000. The government works no differently. 6-months after the budget presentation, the government assesses if the money granted to scheme A is sufficient, or does it need more funds. Are there any other schemes that need more fund allocation? The new, revised estimates then become the benchmark of functioning, against which actual expenditures are compared. S: Subsidy This is a sum that the government gives to an industry or business, with the objective to keep its prices for the general public low. The government pitches in to pay a part of production costs, so that the public does not end up bearing the entire burden of the cost. Remember the recently discontinued FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles) subsidy on electric vehicles (EV) schemes, which boosted EV adoption amongst Indians. Imagine your elder brother or sister funds 40% of your much awaited Goa trip, without wanting anything in return, for the simple purpose of you having fun! That's them subsidizing your travel! V: Vote on Account Remember Nirmala Tai presented an interim budget this year in February, given that elections were due in May? In an election year, the incumbent government does not present a full fledged budget, because who knows if they’ll be voted back to power or not? So, to tide over the next few months before a new government is brought back to power, the government seeks vote on account, which is basically permission or grant needed to fund expenditures for the next few months. Z: Zero-based budgeting The term refers to a budgeting method in which all expenses must be justified for each new period, starting from a "zero base." Think of it like starting with a blank piece of paper every time you make a plan for how to spend your money. Instead of just changing what you spent last year, you think carefully about every rupee you need and why you need it. In 1986, the Indian government implemented ZBB as a system for determining the Expenditure Budget, making it compulsory for all ministries. However, implementation and application of this approach have remained inconsistent in the later years. So, it's time to listen to Tai with rapt attention, and flaunt your newfound budget dictionary to those still afraid of endless budget jargons!

Budget A-Z, for the GenZ: A fun and handy guide for major terms around upcoming Union Budget

The first full budget of the BJP-led NDA government in its third successive term will be presented by <keyword id="19956758" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Minister" source="keywords">Finance Minister</keyword> <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> on July 23. The government on Saturday announced the dates of the budget session of Parliament which will start on July 22 and conclude on August 12. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who will present the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25, has been holding pre-budget consultations. As part of the deliberations, she has met economists, experts in finance and capital markets, industry representatives and agriculture experts. Industry bodies, including the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), have urged the government to increase capital expenditure in the upcoming budget. This will be Sitharaman's seventh budget in a row. She will be the first Union Finance Minister to present seven consecutive union budgets. Former Prime Minister Morarji Desai had presented six budgets in a row. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiran Rijuju announced the dates of budget session. "Hon'ble President of India, on the recommendation of the Government of India, has approved the proposal for summoning of both the Houses of Parliament for the Budget Session, 2024 from 22nd July 2024 to 12 August 2024 (Subject to exigencies of Parliamentary Business). Union Budget, 2024-25 will be presented in Lok Sabha on 23 July 2024," he posted on X. The <keyword id="19916814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Modi-government" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Modi government" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Modi government">Modi government</keyword> had presented an interim budget in February this year. Sitharaman had announced in the interim budget that the capital expenditure outlay for the next year is being increased by 11.1 per cent to Rs 11,11,111 crore, which would be 3.4 per cent of the GDP. The government had also announced that Rs one lakh crore corpus will be established with five-year interest free loan for youth. Newly-elected Lok Sabha members took oath in the first session of 18th Lok Sabha held from June 24 to July 2 following the results of the general elections. President Droupadi Murmu addressed the joint sitting of two Houses on June 27 and both Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha adopted a motion of thanks on the President's address. Prime Minister Narendra Modi replied to the debate on the motion of thanks in the two Houses of Parliament. BJP-led National Democratic Alliance returned to power for the third successive term in the general elections.

FM Nirmala Sitharaman to present first budget of Modi 3.0 on July 23

<ul><li>The Indian economy is expected to grow at over 7% rate in upcoming years</li><li>Fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> in FY24</li><li>Current Account Deficit (CAD) down to 0.7% of GDP </li></ul>With the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024 to be presented tomorrow, Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is presenting the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the parliament today. Think of the <keyword id="6354872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="Orion">Economic Survey</keyword> as a report card of the country's economic performance over the past year, along with inputs and outlook for the coming fiscal year. Here are some crucial highlights from the Economic Survey 2023-24: <h2>Macro-economic indicators</h2>Per the World Economic Outlook in April, the <keyword id="19948494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-growth" source="keywords">global economic growth</keyword> was pegged at 3.2% in 2023. In contrast, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, staying above the 8% mark for 3 out of 4 quarters in FY24. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, or investments in long-term, value-generating fixed assets increased by 9% real terms in 2023-24. The government trimmed down fiscal deficit trimmed down from 6.4% of GDP in FY23 to 5.6% of GDP in FY24.The current account deficit, which indicates that the country is a net importer rather than being an exporter, came down to 0.7% of GDP in FY24, as opposed to 2% of GDP in FY23. While retail inflation averaged at 6.7% in FY23, it dropped down to 5.4% in FY24 During FY24, primary markets saw capital formation, or facilitated raising funds worth Rs 10.9 lakh crore, which makes up for around 29% of the gross fixed capital formation. India's market capitalization to GDP ratio is the fifth largest in the world. <h2>Inflationary Trends </h2>Core inflation eased down to 9-year lows, while core goods inflation came down to a 4-year low. However, food inflation continued to stay high, inching up to 7.5% in FY24, as opposed to 6.6% in FY23. This was largely because of adverse weather conditions, which caused a spike in onion and tomato prices and impacted kharif crop production. Going ahead, RBI's short-term outlook remains positive. Assuming a normal monsoon and no extraordinary policy or geopolitical shocks, the inflation is estimated to drop to 4.5% in FY25, and further down to 4.1% in FY26. These are in line with IMF's inflation forecasts, which stand at 4.6% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025. <h2>Export-Import trends</h2>India's service exports jumped by 4.9% to $341.1 billion in FY24, driven mainly by IT and software services. Apart from being the top remittance recipient globally, with remittances worth $120 billion in 2023, the country also witnessed investment inflows from foreign investors. As of March 2024, India's forex reserves were sufficient to cover over 10 months of projected imports in FY25, and about 98% of all its external debt. The country's external debt to GDP ratio has been largely consistent over the years, standing at 18.7% of the GDP as of March 2024. <h2>Key growth areas to look out for in FY25 </h2>Essential to adopt bottom-up reform approach, with special short to medium term emphasis on structural changes, job and skill creation, addressing challenges faced by MSMEs, managing India's transition towards a green, clean economy, deepening the country's nascent bond market and laying greater stress on tackling quality of health, especially amongst young Indians. Deliberate focus needed on boosting private investment, expanding India's MSMEs, tapping into the potential of India's agriculture sector, manage India's green transition, urgently bridge the employment-education gap and build capacity of states to sustain and complement India's growth. In the medium term, the country's economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 7%.

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

Despite geopolitical tensions in <keyword id="19897269" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="europe" source="keywords">Europe</keyword> and the <keyword id="19904316" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="middle-east" source="keywords">Middle East</keyword>, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="20631272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="merchandise-exports" source="keywords">merchandise exports</keyword> grew by 5.8% to $109.96 billion compared to $103.9 billion in the same period last year, according to a CRISIL report. The report states that the deceleration in the growth momentum of exports in June compared to May was largely due to an 18.2% contraction in oil exports. The growth momentum slowed down in June, with merchandise exports increasing by only 2.6% year-on-year, down from 9.1% in May. Non-oil exports continued to maintain steady growth, rising by 7.7% in June, almost in line with the 7.8% growth recorded in May. Services exports exhibited a strong performance in June, contributing positively to the overall trade scenario. The positive aspect is that merchandise imports grew at a slower pace of 5% year-on-year in June, down from 7.7% in May. However, core imports, excluding oil and gold, surged by 7.1%, increasing from the 0.8% growth in the previous month. This spike in core imports was partially driven by a low base effect from the previous year. Despite the positive growth in exports, the <keyword id="20201391" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-deficit" source="keywords">trade deficit</keyword> widened to $21 billion in June from $19.2 billion in the same month last year. For the first quarter, cumulative imports rose by 7.7% to $172.4 billion from $160 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $62.44 billion, up from $56.1 billion. This widening deficit was mainly due to a higher oil trade deficit, while the non-oil trade deficit narrowed. Services exports were a bright spot, increasing by 10.2% year-on-year to $29.76 billion in May. On the other hand, service import growth moderated to 5.4%, down from 19.1% in the previous month. Consequently, the services trade surplus expanded to $13.02 billion, up from $11.1 billion in May last year. Oil exports fell by 18.3% year-on-year and 18.5% month-on-month in June, despite stable international prices. This suggests a reduction in export volumes, with exports falling to $5.5 billion from $6.8 billion in June last year and the previous month. Oil imports increased by 19.6% in June compared to 28% in May, driven by domestic demand and local refineries operating above capacity. Sectors such as drugs and pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, organic and inorganic chemicals, and ready-made garments showed positive growth. However, pharmaceuticals (9.9% vs. 10.5%) and ready-made garments (3.7% vs. 9.8%) saw slower growth compared to May. Gems and jewellery exports continued to decline, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth at -1.4% year-on-year. Growth in carpets, handloom products, man-made products, plastics, and linoleum was positive but slower than the previous month. Handmade carpets (-16.6% vs. 20.6%), jute manufacturing (-11.1% vs. -5.2%), and leather products (-2.2% vs -2.1%) recorded contractions. Cashew exports have been declining since 2018, with only sporadic months of positive growth. In June, cashew exports fell by 7.3%, an improvement from the 25.8% decline in May. Coffee (70% vs. 64.2%), fruits and vegetables (7% vs. 20.8%), rice (1% vs. 2.8%), spices (9.8%vs. 20.3%), tea (3.2% vs. 19.6%), and tobacco (37.7% vs. 58.4%) saw slower growth compared to May. Marine products (-7.7% vs. -3.9%) and meat, dairy, and poultry products (-13.9% vs. 22.9%) also experienced a decline. Increases were noted in electronic goods (15.9% vs. 6.7%), fruits and vegetables (22.6% vs. 3%), non-ferrous metals (47.6% vs. 1.1%), project goods (31.4% vs. -44.3%), textiles and yarn fabric made-up articles (23.8% vs. -1.1%), and wood products (16.2% vs. -7.2%). The fiscal year has started positively with steady merchandise export growth in the first quarter. Encouragingly, multilateral organisations have forecasted better year-on-year trade growth. The Indian government's focus on foreign trade agreements (FTAs) is expected to further boost trade. However, the persistent growth in imports surpassing exports is a concern, widening the trade deficit. The recent US tariff hikes on Chinese imports could lead to potential dumping by China in the Asian market, including India, which requires close monitoring. Despite these challenges, the expected moderation in domestic growth may help contain import growth and the trade deficit. The service trade surplus and robust remittance flows are positive indicators that the current account will remain stable.

Indian exports show resilience amid global challenges in first quarter, says CRISIL report

Mumbai, Stating that the country's external balances are stronger than expected on the back of strong inflows, a Wall Street brokerage on Tuesday projected a much lower current account deficit which is likely to print at 1 per cent for this fiscal, leaving the balance of payment surplus at USD 39 billion. <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="goldman-sachs" source="keywords">Goldman Sachs</keyword> in a report said the country's external balances remain favourable with a combination of low CAD, strong capital flows, adequate forex reserves and low external debt. Combined with this, expectations for a weaker dollar due to the likely five <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> rate cuts this year suggest a "goldilocks" environment for the country's external balances. Accordingly, the Wall Street major has revised upwards its current account deficit (CAD) forecast to 1 per cent of GDP for FY24 from 1.3 per cent earlier, and 1.3 per cent for FY25 from 1.9 per cent earlier, citing a downward revision to their oil price forecast to USD81/barrel in 2024 from above USD90 earlier; and services exports continuing to surprise higher than prior expectations. The brokerage expects robust capital flows in 2024, driven by strong equity portfolio flows as the Fed starts the easing cycle; robust debt inflows as the bonds are included in the JP <keyword id="20036913" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="morgan" source="keywords">Morgan</keyword>'s global government bond index from June 2024; and higher FDI inflows with the country continuing to benefit from regional supply chain diversification. These capital inflows should help offset lower net corporate dollar borrowing inflows owing to sizable maturities of earlier loans coming up in 2024, it said, adding overall, the balance of payment surplus should jump to USD 39 billion in FY24 but fall to USD 27 billion in the next fiscal. The country's oil imports fell to USD 164 billion in the January-November 2023 period from USD 189 billion a year ago as oil prices were 18 per cent lower during the period. Similarly, services trade surplus is tracking higher as exports have surprised to the upside, driven by both business and software services. With US growth remaining resilient, the report expects services export to remain strong and services trade balance will print in at USD 158 billion up from USD 148 billion. These two will balance out the rise in gold imports which so far stood at USD39.6 billion and may close the fiscal USD44 billion from USD37 billion in FY23. On the other hand non-oil and non-gold imports are tracking marginally higher than earlier forecasts driven mainly by electronic goods and machinery imports among the major sub-components, and may close the year at USD445 billion from USD440 billion. Net FDI inflows stood at USD17 billion up to October 2023 compared to USD36 billion a year ago, while both equity and debt inflows have picked up in Q3 and at the current run rates they may close at USD28 billion this fiscal up from USD24 billion. The report sees the country's external vulnerabilities remaining low with comfortable import cover at around 11 months, higher than the pre-pandemic average of 9.5 months, and the forex reserves as a share of external debt of 99 per cent is at its highest level in the past 10 years, excluding the pandemic years. On the rupee, the brokerage said it continues to see the rupee as a relatively low-volatility carry currency. But quickly noted that despite this "goldilocks" scenario, the rupee is likely to underperform most EM Asia currencies as they expect the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to accumulate inflows and build forex reserves at every opportunity. They continue to expect the dollar/rupee pair to hover around 83-82 in the next three to six months, and then appreciate slightly to 81 over the next 12 months.

Goldman Sachs sees India current account deficit falling to 1% of GDP this fiscal

New Delhi [India], June 5 (ANI): The Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>)-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) secured a majority in the general elections, securing a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This victory indicates continuity in policy, particularly in <keyword id="21785272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure-spending" source="keywords">infrastructure spending</keyword> and boosting domestic manufacturing, which are expected to support robust <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. However, the NDA's slim margin of victory and the BJP's loss of an outright majority in parliament may slow down more extensive economic and fiscal reforms, potentially impeding <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword> efforts. In fiscal 2023-24, India's real GDP accelerated to 8.2 per cent from 7.0 per cent the previous year, driven by significant gains in gross fixed capital formation as the government's infrastructure programs gained momentum, even as private consumption remained subdued. <keyword id="20227907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Moodys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Moody's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Moody's">Moody's</keyword> projects India's economic strength to continue, with an anticipated real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of around 7 per cent over the three-year period from fiscal 2023-24 to 2025-26. This growth is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure development and digitalization efforts. Despite this outlook, structural weaknesses pose risks to long-term growth potential. High youth unemployment and low productivity growth in the agriculture sector constrain economic expansion. The agricultural sector's modernization has been stalled by political challenges, as evidenced by the repeal of key reforms in 2021 following widespread farmer protests. Additionally, gains in manufacturing have been uneven, limiting labour force diversification away from agriculture, which still accounts for 40 per cent of total employment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have declined over the past three years, despite a favourable geopolitical climate amid US-China tensions. This trend suggests persistent constraints within India's investment climate. To address these challenges, further structural reforms and enhanced implementation of existing initiatives, such as the production-linked incentive schemes to promote manufacturing, calibrated liberalisation of cross-border trade, and reconsideration of labour reforms, are necessary. The government's focus on fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, but significant improvements in debt ratios and interest servicing have yet to be realised. Since the trough in fiscal 2020-21, the central government's deficit has likely narrowed for three consecutive years. The interim budget for fiscal 2024-25 projects a deficit of around 5 per cent of GDP, aiming for a 4.5 per cent deficit by fiscal 2025-26. However, India's fiscal consolidation post-pandemic has not outpaced other emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, and its fiscal and debt metrics remain weaker than those of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and other Baa-rated peers globally. India's general government debt is projected to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, compared to 70.5 per cent in fiscal 2018-19. General government interest payments are forecast to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years, down from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, but still higher than the pre-pandemic ratio of less than 23 per cent. While increased budgetary allocations for infrastructure indicate an improvement in spending quality, debt servicing remains a significant portion of expenditure, reflecting ongoing constraints on fiscal flexibility. This situation underscores the need for the incoming government to balance fiscal consolidation with growth-supportive measures. The upcoming final budget for the fiscal year ending March 2025 will provide further insights into India's fiscal policy direction through 2029. As the Modi administration embarks on its third term, the focus will likely remain on sustaining economic growth while addressing the persistent <keyword id="21500054" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-challenges" source="keywords">fiscal challenges</keyword> that hinder India's long-term economic potential.

Modi 3.0 will offer policy continuity, but BJP's loss of outright majority may slow down fiscal reforms: Moody's

<ul><li>India’s <keyword id="19955404" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="finance" source="keywords">finance</keyword> minister revises FY24’s fiscal deficit targets to 5.8% of GDP from 5.9% fixed earlier.</li><li>The revenue receipts at ₹30.03 lakh crore for FY24 are expected to be higher than the Budget Estimate.</li><li>Most economists had said that the government is on track to achieve the fiscal deficit target. </li></ul>The biggest takeaway from the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s <keyword id="19906106" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interim-budget" source="keywords">interim Budget</keyword> announcement is the government’s fiscal consolidation program. While the current year’s fiscal deficit has been revised to 5.8% of GDP from 5.9% estimated earlier, the big surprise is next year’s target. Finance minister announced that the fiscal deficit target for FY25 was set at 5.1% of GDP. “The revenue receipts at ₹30.03 lakh crore are expected to be higher than the Budget Estimate, reflecting strong growth momentum and formalization in the economy. The Revised Estimate of the fiscal deficit is 5.8% of GDP, improving on the Budget Estimate, notwithstanding moderation in the nominal growth estimates,” she said in her speech. She said that the government will continue on the path of fiscal consolidation, to reduce the fiscal deficit below 4.5% by 2025-26. The gross and net market borrowings through dated securities during FY25 are estimated at ₹14.13 and ₹11.75 lakh crore respectively. “Both will be less than that in 2023-24. Now that the private investments are happening at scale, the lower borrowings by the Central Government will facilitate larger availability of credit for the private sector,” FM added. She also set the FY25’s divestment target at ₹50,000 crore. Bond markets cheer The bond markets have been cheering the move. This led to a significant drop in India's 10-year yield by 100 basis points to 7.04%. Experts see further drop in yields due to flows from foreign institutional investors and the government’s move increases its chances of a possible ratings upgrade. “The finance ministry is clearly aiming for rating upgrade with aggressive fiscal deficit reduction target as we are at investment grade rating,” said Chirag Mehta, CIO of Quantum AMC. Gaurav Dua, head of capital market strategy, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas too said that the fiscal deficit target of 5.1% for FY25 is good news for the markets. “Bond markets are celebrating the same, with a rally in bond prices and appreciation in INR against USD,” he added. The government sticking to the path of fiscal consolidation is good news for foreign investors. A few experts had also worried that this pre-election budget would have populist measures. Lack of such measures seems to have enthused the experts. “The FM is sticking to fiscal responsibility with a lower fiscal deficit which could be music to the ears of foreign investors and impending $25 billion bond inclusion in June as lower budget deficits and pared borrowings will help bring down yields. It could possibly open the door for a ratings upgrade,” said Pradeep Gupta, Co-founder &amp; Vice-chairman, Anand Rathi Group. As borrowings and liquidity conditions ease, the markets can also expect a possible interest rate cut in the coming financial year. “Lesser borrowing by the government will be beneficial for the private sector and households as it will put more money on the table for them. It will also pave the way for RBI to start cutting rates sooner compared to other economies,” said Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives &amp; research at Samco Securities.

With FY25 fiscal deficit target at 5.1%, FM is gunning for ratings upgrade say experts

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) is likely to transfer approximately Rs 1000 billion to the <keyword id="19900449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government" source="keywords">government</keyword> IN <keyword id="19965933" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FY25" source="keywords">FY25</keyword> according to a report by Union Bank of India. The report highlights that RBI is anticipated to maintain a robust <keyword id="20047030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dividend" source="keywords">dividend</keyword> payout for the <keyword id="20093202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-year" source="keywords">fiscal year</keyword> 2025 (FY25). This projection represents a slight increase from Rs 874 billion transferred in the previous fiscal year. "The government has budgeted the FY25 dividend for RBI and PSU banks &amp; financial institutions at INR 1020bn, vis-a-vis INR 1044bn in FY24. In our view, a positive surprise is likely, similar to last year when initial budget estimate for overall dividend was only INR 480bn" said the report. Analysts in the report predict a potential positive surprise, akin to the previous fiscal year, when the initial budget estimate for dividends was significantly lower at INR 480 billion. Despite several factors influencing RBI's dividend calculation, such as <keyword id="21195402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-earnings" source="keywords">interest earnings</keyword> and foreign exchange (FX) gains, analysts predict a continuation of strong dividend figures. The majority of RBI's balance sheet, approximately 70 percent, consists of foreign currency assets, with another 20 per cent in domestic government bonds. Interest earnings from these securities are expected to range from Rs 1.5-1.7 trillion. Additionally, interest from liquidity operations has increased RBI's earnings, particularly as the banking system returned to a deficit mode from September 2023. While income gains of RBI from FX (Forex) sales decreased slightly due to lower sales volumes, they are expected to remain substantial despite a rise in the weighted average cost of <keyword id="20102143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserves" source="keywords">reserves</keyword>. Moreover, a decline in provisions likely contributed to boosting RBI's dividend. Provisions for reserves, as per the Economic Capital Framework outlined by the Jalan committee, saw a rise in the contingency fund provision due to increased balance sheet growth. The impact of the RBI dividend announcement on markets may be limited in the near term, especially with ongoing elections potentially delaying government spending. However, if the surplus balance is utilized for activities like G-Sec buybacks, it could support the shorter end of the G-Sec curve. Overall, analysts maintain a positive outlook on longer-duration G-Secs due to favorable demand-supply dynamics. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank">Indian smartphone market up 8%, 5G smartphones account for over 70% of shipments</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank">IPL Decoded: Highest individual scores in IPL 2024 so far, from Stoinis to Kohli</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank">Apple and Samsung dominate the top-selling smartphones in Q1 2024</a>

You Searched For "India Fiscal deficit" and got 10 results

Budget size almost unchanged from interim, shows govt's commitment to fiscal prudence: Experts

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Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

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Indian exports show resilience amid global challenges in first quarter, says CRISIL report

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Goldman Sachs sees India current account deficit falling to 1% of GDP this fiscal

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Modi 3.0 will offer policy continuity, but BJP's loss of outright majority may slow down fiscal reforms: Moody's

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With FY25 fiscal deficit target at 5.1%, FM is gunning for ratings upgrade say experts

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