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India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.8 per cent in FY2022-23, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday. In a statement after the Monetary Policy Committee's bi-monthly meet, Das said the real <keyword id="44910" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp-growth" source="Orion">GDP growth</keyword> is projected at 17.2 per cent in Q1FY23, at 7 per cent in Q2; at 4.3 per cent in Q3 and Q4 at 4.5 per cent. "In India, real GDP growth at 9.2 per cent for 2021-22 takes it modestly above the level of GDP in 2019-20. Private consumption, the mainstay of domestic demand, continues to trail its pre-pandemic level," he said. "The persistent increase in international commodity prices, surge in volatility of global financial markets and global supply bottlenecks can exacerbate risks to the outlook." On Thursday, RBI retained its key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22. Further, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was retained to give a push to economic activity. In addition, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/home-loans-will-remain-cheap-for-a-little-longer/articleshow/89473251.cms">Home loans will remain cheap for a little longer</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/nykaa-share-price-slips-as-steep-fall-in-profit-disappoints-investors/articleshow/89469029.cms">Nykaa slips 4% as steep fall in profit disappoints investors</a>

India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.8% in FY23, says RBI

The <keyword id="44910" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth">GDP growth</keyword> in India after 2014 is a highly significant topic that seems to have been impacted by a number of factors. The BJP government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in May 2014 following a thumping victory in the Lok Sabha general elections. Four years after the government assumed the power, the <keyword id="6356076" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-economy">Indian economy</keyword> was found to have slipped back to the same state matching with what it was a year before the new government took charge. GDP reports from 2014 onwards During the financial year 2018, India’s GDP growth had slowed down to 6.7% when compared to what was recorded in the previous year as 7.1%. This figure was almost on par with the 6.6% GDP growth reported in the financial year 2014, just before the Lok Sabha elections were held. Hence the figures show the pace of growth of GDP under Narendra Modi government was the slowest. However, during 2015 and 2016, the GDP growth touched 7.3% and 8 % eventually slipping down in 2017 and 2018. The reasons for the slip in GDP growth after 2014 Tracing the reasons for the slow growth of GDP, the finance experts put the blame on a few policies of the government. The demonetization implemented by the Narendra Modi government affected a large number of businesses. Especially small businesses were the ones to suffer much. The scenario following 2016 also saw a large number of job losses across multiple industry domains. The government also introduced the GST (Goods and Service Tax) in July 2017 which was considered a massive reform by the BJP government. Though the move was heralded by many as a vital measure to regulate and systematize the taxation procedures, the implementation was not that easy. There were riddles of problems to solve and the implementation happened in a haphazard manner that also led to the slowing down of the GDP growth. Yet another area that contributed to the slowing down of GDP growth after 2014 is the private investments segment. In fact, this had been a major challenge to the country’s economy. Over the 12 months ending with March 2018, India had scrapped a large number of projects which was said to be an all-time high in terms of number and volume. This fact has been reported in the report published by the Center For Monitoring Indian Economy. The report card for the whole year does not look encouraging enough. Recovery and a quick surge in GDP growth Though the ride had been bumpy over the past four years after 2014, the Indian economy managed to be labelled as the fastest growing economy of the world in 2018. The World Bank has forecasted that India’s economy is all set to grow at a rapid pace than the other major economies of the world. Now India economy is the third largest in Asia and the trends seen at present can move Indian economy to the upper slots in the years to come. A significant recovery in private instruments and a strong growth in the consumption of goods and services in the private sector is expected to fuel the growth of Indian economy over the next few years.

What is the growth of GDP after 2014

New Delhi, India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal and remained the fastest-growing large economy, mainly due to better performance by manufacturing, mining and services sectors, the government data showed on Thursday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.2 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2022-23. India remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.9 per cent growth in July-September 2023. According to the National Statistical Office (NSO) data, the agriculture sector GVA (Gross Value Added) growth decelerated to 1.2 per cent in the September 2023 quarter from 2.5 per cent a year ago. The expansion in financial, real estate and professional services' GVA was 6 per cent, down from 7.1 per cent in the year-ago quarter. The GVA in the manufacturing sector showed a growth of 13.9 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal compared to a contraction of 3.8 per cent in the year-ago period. As per the data, the output (GVA) in the 'mining and quarrying' accelerated to 10 per cent in the second quarter against a contraction of 0.1 per cent a year ago. Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services' grew by 10.1 per cent from 6.1 per cent. The construction sector recorded a growth of 13.3 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter compared to 5.7 per cent. The growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the April-June quarter of 2023-24 remained unchanged at 7.8 per cent. "Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 41.74 lakh crore, as against Rs 38.78 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23, showing a growth of 7.6 per cent as compared to 6.2 per cent in Q2 2022-23," the NSO said in a statement. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in Q2 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 71.66 lakh crore against Rs 65.67 lakh crore in Q2 2022-23, showing a growth of 9.1 per cent as compared to 17.2 per cent in Q2 2022-23, it added. It further said the GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in April-September 2023-24 (H1 2023-24) is estimated at Rs 82.11 lakh crore against Rs 76.22 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 7.7 per cent in H1 2023-24 compared to 9.5 per cent in H1 2022-23, it said. GDP at current prices in H1 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 142.33 lakh crore compared to Rs 131.09 lakh crore during the corresponding period of the previous year, showing a growth of 8.6 per cent in H1 2023-24 against 22.2 per cent in H1 2022-23. Meanwhile, the output of eight key infrastructure sectors jumped 12.1 per cent in October 2023 against 0.7 per cent expansion in the year-ago period on account of a sharp uptick in production of coal, steel, cement and electricity, according to the official data. The government's fiscal deficit at the end of October touched 45 per cent of the full-year budget estimate, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Thursday.

India's GDP grows 7.6% in September quarter, beats RBI estimates

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

<ul><li>Cut income tax rate, is the advice of <keyword id="105648" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bibek-Debroy">Bibek Debroy</keyword>, the Chairman of Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. </li><li>The Union government currently has 28 central schemes and the Debroy believes that some of these expenses can also come under state purview. </li><li>Debroy believes that sectoral sops will create more distortions and complicate the system of taxation even further. </li><li>The country currently has five slabs of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Debroy believes that it should be streamlined to three. </li></ul> Ironically, the Indian government is facing the same conundrum as any middle class family in the country would---low income and increasing expenses. The country is short of ₹6.5 lakh crore, as per <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/india-s-2018-19-fiscal-deficit-at-3-39-of-gdp-lower-than-target-119053101722_1.html">estimates in May</a>, mostly due to decrease in tax income. And like a middle class person, the country also saddled itself with expenses which are eating into it. The Union government has come up with many populist schemes at the central level on health, cleanliness and much more. Bibek Debroy, the chairman of Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has a three-point programme to change the sorry state of affairs, especially when the economy itself is slowing down. The economist who has made significant contribution to the game theory, believes that there are limits to public expenditure due to the current situation. Cut direct tax rate Added to that, Debroy has a few things that would aid in the long run. “The direct tax rate can be reduced significantly. The only way to reform direct taxes is to eliminate exemptions for both personal and corporate taxes,” Debroy said. Indian government had promised to bring down the corporate tax rate to 25% from 30% provided all exemptions are done away with. However, as it stands today, firms with an annual revenue of up to ₹400 crore are eligible pay tax at the rate of 25%. On personal income tax, individuals have been given some respite up to an annual income of ₹5 lakhs. However, the government imposed a super rich tax for those with annual income of ₹2.5 crore to 25% from 15%, and those who earn more than that, will be taxed at 37%. However, what Debroy is asking for is a broad-based cut in income tax which may leave more money in the hands of consumers to spend. This may be a timely recommendation given the sharp slowdown in Indian consumption-- from air tickets to car sales, from daily products to discretionary ones, all sectors are facing acute stress from lack of demand. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="70730623" title="India's largest bank is asking for a government stimulus to save the upcoming festive season" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

 Reduce GST slabs The country currently has five slabs of Goods and Services Tax (GST) -- zero, 5%, 12%, 18% and 28%-- and there is a surcharge on some foreign portfolio investments expanding the number of slabs. Debroy believes that it should be streamlined to three. Though he said that he prefers a single slab, it would be impractical. “Everyone wants the 24 per cent to come down to 18 per cent, but no one wants the items under 0 per cent to come under 6 per cent,” he told Indian Express. Let states spend “So, if we think health is important and we want the Union government to spend on health, by the same token, the state government should pay for defence. After all, I have got limitation in terms of resources available for public expenditure, I need to prioritise. That prioritisation cannot be done by the Union government alone, but also by states,” Debroy told Indian Express<a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/business/bibek-debroy-interview-the-key-question-is-are-we-on-a-trend-economic-growth-rate-of-6-per-cent-or-7-per-cent-5915773/"> in an interview</a>. The Union government currently has 28 central schemes and the Debroy believes that some of these expenses can also come under state purview. Say no to sectoral sops A large number of sectors, especially the auto sector, is seeking government incentives to get back on track. Auto sales have been falling for the last nine months, which each month worse than others, leading to job losses and production cuts and even dealership shutdowns. And, the automakers have one hope---sops from the government. But theoretically it could be a bad idea, says Debroy. He believes that sectoral sops will create more distortions and complicate the system of taxation even further. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/hero-motocorp-tata-mahindra-and-maruti-suzuki-are-all-cutting-production-as-theres-no-demand/articleshow/70710729.cms">Hero MotoCorp, Tata, Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki are all cutting production as there’s no demand</a>

Indian Prime Minister's economic advisor has 3 ideas to keep the economy running fast, on its own

After an underwhelming 2017-18, where <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>’s <keyword id="47276" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-growth">economic growth</keyword> was pegged at 6.6%, the current fiscal year was supposed to mark a recovery of sorts. The negative effects of demonetisation and the implementation GST were supposed to wear off, rural demand and private investment were set to increase and structural reforms to improve India’s financial sector and formalise the economy were supposed to kick in. Keeping this in mind, in November 2017, Moody’s, a credit ratings agency, forecast a growth rate <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Indias-government-bond-rating-to-Baa2-from-Baa3--PR_374998">of 7.5% </a>for India in 2018-19. At the time, it said it would downgrade its rating if “external vulnerabilities increased sharply”, or if the government’s fiscal strength or the health of the banking system declined further. And this is exactly what happened. As a part of it’s Global Macro Outlook report for 2018-19, Moody’s downgraded its estimate for India’s <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> growth <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Global-growth-acceleration-limited-by-tighter-credit-conditions-downside--PR_384451">to 7.3%</a>. In fact, it lowered the growth estimates for a number of emerging markets such as Turkey and Argentina citing “rising borrowing costs” and “tighter conditions”. It all starts with <keyword id="6359072" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil">oil</keyword> Moody’s downgrade for India comes largely on the back of the rise in global oil prices, an “external vulnerability” which has significantly increased the government’s import bills, hurt the rupee and by effect, widened the government’s current account deficit. It has also increased inflation, which will affect consumption. The government’s heavier financial burden will lead to lower spending on priority areas like infrastructure and the continued recapitalisation of India’s state-owned banks. The bad loan problem at India’s banks only seems to be getting worse, as total non-performing assets across the sector rose by a fifth to <a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/banks/bank-npas-bad-loans-public-sector-banks-psb-losses/story/278127.html">nearly ₹10.2 trillion </a>at the end of March. As a result, the slowdown in corporate lending is bound to continue. And the government doesn’t really have the financial leeway to counter this with a stimulus programme. What this ratings downgrade means Macroeconomic forecasts and ratings from accredited ratings agencies like Moody’s and S&amp;P function as important signposts for investors, institutional and private, and companies looking to enter a country. They help investors assess risk effectively and provide an objective assessment of a country’s prospects. This is especially important for emerging markets where statistics and forecasts by domestic agencies and government ministries can be biased or even, inaccurate. A positive outlook can lead to greater investment and business confidence, while a negative rating or downgrade can cause panic among foreign investors, leading to an exodus of funds, and dissuade companies from expanding their operations and hiring more people. This is actually what we’re already seeing in India. The net outflow of foreign funds from India is expected to have crossed <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/foreign-investors-are-losing-confidence-in-indias-short-term-growth-prospects/articleshow/64353048.cms">₹271.1 billion this month</a>, the highest in 18 months. The ratings downgrade will dampen investor confidence in India further. Moody’s did, however, leave India’s growth forecast for fiscal 2019 unchanged for the time being at 7.5%, indicating that India’s troubles could primarily be short-term in nature provided the government works to mitigate their impact and continue with its reforms.

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India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.8% in FY23, says RBI

IANS

What is the growth of GDP after 2014

BI India Bureau

India's GDP grows 7.6% in September quarter, beats RBI estimates

BI India Bureau

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

ANI

Indian Prime Minister's economic advisor has 3 ideas to keep the economy running fast, on its own

Katya Naidu

India’s GDP growth forecast just got downgraded by Moody’s. Here’s why that matters

Dilsher Dhillon

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