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Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

Shares of state-owned behemoth Life Insurance Corporation (<keyword id="19903588" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="LIC" source="keywords">LIC</keyword>) have outperformed rivals like <keyword id="20079495" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Life" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Life" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Life">HDFC Life</keyword> and <keyword id="21278696" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Prudential-Life" source="keywords">ICICI Prudential Life</keyword>, as it placed bets on India's growth sectors, including infrastructure, while the private sector concentrated its bets on tech, consumer and consumer-related <keyword id="19910880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BFSI" source="keywords">BFSI</keyword> companies. LIC's stock has gained nearly 79% from Rs 620 on June 18, 2023, to Rs 1,109.15 at the closing on Tuesday, according to stock exchange data. In contrast, HDFC Life gave a negative return with Tuesday's closing price of Rs 646.55 on the BSE as compared to Rs 666.55 a year back. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co delivered a return of 12%, considering its stock price rise from Rs 582 on June 18, 2023, to Rs 654.10 on June 16, 2024. Over the past one year, <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword> Life Insurance shares have risen from Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,621.20, delivering a return of 23%. Capital market analysts said <keyword id="19935977" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="insurance-companies" source="keywords">insurance companies</keyword> make money in two ways - charging premiums for policies and then investing the premiums into assets. It is the latter that generates the bigger delta in profits, thus impacting value creation and managing risks. Global majors, including Warren Buffet-owned Berkshire Hathaway, have been successful due to their ability to make superior investments. Most Indian insurance companies are yet to capitalise on the emergence of the country's <keyword id="19997284" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="infrastructure-sector" source="keywords">infrastructure sector</keyword>, analysts said. Indian insurance companies have concentrated investments in the BFSI, IT, and consumer sectors - all of which have been underperformers in the recent past. Only 8-10% of their investments are in the infrastructure sector. This is far less when compared to global standards. Large global insurance companies -- such as Allianz, Nippon Life Insurance, and Metlife, and other insurers like Berkshire Hathaway -- have much larger exposure ranging from 15 to 30% to the infrastructure sector, analysts noted. Over the past few years, global insurers have been increasingly considering infrastructure investments as 'core' investments as the stable and long-term cash flows of infrastructure assets naturally align with the liabilities of insurers. Additionally, infrastructure assets have defensive characteristics of high barriers to entry, strong pricing power, structural growth, and predictive cash flows, and listed infrastructure can provide investors with inflation-protected income and solid capital growth. <h2>Infra sector outperforming all</h2>For India, a strong government focus on the sector with large spending, supporting initiatives and encouraging policies, and improving governance has helped the infrastructure industry has come of age. This has helped the infra sector to outperform all other sectors, according to analysts. They said the high focus on retail loans, and the strategic reluctance to look at infrastructure for growth opportunities is proving detrimental for the shareholders of such companies. SBI, with its higher exposure to the infrastructure sector, has seen its stock gain 48% in the year (from Rs 592 to Rs 880.95 on Tuesday), while those of its private counterparts HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank have gained only in the range of (-)3%to 24%. Kotak and HDFC Banks with negligible exposure to the infrastructure sector are the worst performing, with their shares giving a negative return, stock exchange data showed. Kotak Mahindra Bank shares were at Rs 1,895 on June 18, 2023, and closed at Rs 1,805.20 on Tuesday. HDFC Bank closed at Rs 1,619.20 on BSE on Tuesday, down from Rs 1,679 a year back.

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FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

BI India Bureau

Exposure to India's infra sector helps LIC, SBI outshine peers

PTI

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