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<div type="image" title="In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit" msid="114284206" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Or, if it leaves the rates unchanged, your EMIs wont budge one bit&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> On September 18, 2024, the <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> delivered a jumbo-sized surprise to the global economy. Not only did they trim their interest rates by a massive 50 basis points to bring their yields down to 5%, but also hinted at further rate cuts in the upcoming months. This move from the fed and several other central banks globally had pushed expectations high for a similar rate slash closer home, from the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> this month. But governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, in a “picture abhi baaki hai” moment, decided to hold the repo rates here steady, leaving them unchanged at 6.5% for the record 10th straight time. Although, he did tinker with the policy stand, changing it from “rate cuts are absolutely off the table” to a more accommodating “we’re okay with bringing down the rates, if needed”. This, rather neutral, stance from India’s financial custodian sparked hopes for a rate cut in December this year. However, the stubborn <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> levels in September have again dented such hopes. As consumers, you may be wondering what all the hullabaloo this is about, since it hardly makes a difference to your regular financial routine. Well, the majority of both economic growth and inflation is closely connected to this policy stance from the central bank and it does have a rather indirect effect on both our earnings and spending. But more directly, it would have clear implications for those looking to own a house. Even the slightest modification of interest rates, or the lack of it, influences the <keyword id="19916018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="emi" source="keywords">EMI</keyword> you pay significantly. So, all aspiring homebuyers, is this the right time to take out a loan and buy a house? Can you expect a rate cut anytime soon, and what will that mean for your home-owning dreams? We lay it out. <h2>What’s the connection?</h2>You see, buying a house is no small feat, at least financially. The task becomes even more herculean if you are scouting for your own roof in cities like Delhi, Noida, Bangalore or Mumbai where, as Circuit from Munnabhai says, “room shuru hote hi khatam ho jata hai”. Naturally, you’ll have to take a <keyword id="6354730" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan" source="Orion">home loan</keyword> from the bank. Don’t be mistaken, the bank won't give you a loan that covers 100% of the value of the property you want to own. Rather, your loan amount will be equivalent to a certain percentage of the property’s total value. RBI’s guidelines on this are pretty clear: <ul><li>If your loan amount is up to Rs 30 lakh, you can get a loan worth 90% of the property’s value.</li></ul><ul><li>If the loan amount is between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 75 lakh, you are eligible for a loan worth 80% of the property’s value. </li><li>If you are taking a loan of more than Rs 75 lakh, your loan amount will be equivalent to 70% of the property’s value. </li></ul>Now assuming that you have the money, it's all about paying back the principal amount, but not without a little (read hefty) interest added on top. See, when you’re taking a home loan, you are actually signing up for a long-term, even multi-decadal financial commitment, which will unfailingly present itself to your bank accounts and finances every single month, in the form of EMIs, or equated monthly instalments). When you take a home loan, you can choose to pay the interest in two ways (talk about choices!). One is that you decide to keep a fixed rate of interest throughout the tenure of your home loan. So, if you opt for a 25-year fixed-rate home loan at the rate of 8.8% p.a., you’ll have to pay interest at this rate for the next 25 years, till your entire loan is paid off. Yes, you can go backsies and switch to a floating-rate home loan by paying a fee. Floating, as the name suggests, means that your interest rate is not set in stone. But starting October 2019, when it comes to a floating interest rate home loan, your payable interest and EMIs are directly impacted by any changes in <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword>, which were left unchanged by RBI this time around. Why are these two so chummy, you might ask. Well, <keyword id="173069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-loan-interest" source="Orion">home loan interest</keyword> rates are a sum of two things: <ol><li>Repo Rate (the rate at which RBI lends money to banks)</li><li>Operational cost + margins</li></ol>Any plus or minus in this equation would send your home loan interests tanking, or skyrocketing. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat explains that any change in the repo rates impacts the cost of funds and thereby the home loan interest rates. “When the interest rates are expected to reduce, the corresponding impact will be in the form of a reduced EMI. Home loan borrowers should always try to borrow at a floating rate when interest rates are expected to reduce and at a fixed rate when the interest rates are expected to increase. This minimizes the outflow in the form of EMIs that the home loan borrowers will experience”, he continues. So, no change in repo rates means no change in your home loan interest payout and no financial relief whatsoever. A rate cut, which most experts are anticipating will start this December, would mean your EMI payments come down, and your wallet might save a little more. But there’s also a chance of an UNO reverse happening. In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Consider this. You took a floating interest rate home loan worth Rs 50 lakh in January 2022 at 8% p.a., for a period of 20 years. This brings your total monthly EMI to Rs Rs 41,822. But, as luck would (or won't) have it, RBI raised the interest rate by 250 basis points between May 2022 and February 2023, bringing it to its current status of 6.5%. Some back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that now, your home loan interest payout will also rise by a hefty 2.5%, taking the total to 10.5%. In other words, you’ll have to dish out Rs 49,919 per month as EMI. Now, won't you heave a sigh of relief if the RBI were to bring down the interest rate by say, even 50 basis points, or 0.5%? Agreed, your EMI will come down just marginally, to Rs 48,251. But look at this over a 20-year period, and you’ll see how big the difference is. <h2>Are rates set to change anytime soon?</h2>Generally, RBI hikes the repo rates if it sees inflation spiralling out of control. Then, in a bid to reduce consumer spending, it raises interest rates to make borrowing expensive. But when the apex bank sees sluggish consumption in the economy, inflation in control and wants to boost spending, it slashes down on interest rates, making it more lucrative for people to borrow. As of now, most experts are not anticipating any changes in the interest rates anytime soon. This means home loans are not getting cheaper anytime soon. The CPI data, which came out yesterday, saw inflation rise to 5.49% in September, compared to 3.65% last month. Food and beverage prices jumped to a four-month high of 8.36% in September, as opposed to a 5.3% rise in August. So a rate cut seems a no-go at the moment! Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities explains that the RBI had probably expected a hardening of inflation and that's why it chose to hold on to the rates in the monetary policy announcement last week. “Now, it seems that RBI will take a cautious stance going ahead and will not be in a hurry into rate cuts like its global peers”, he added. In all this, one thing is clear, in the grand movie of the Indian economy, the RBI has chosen stability over drama. And just like in every good Bollywood film, we're left wondering what twist the sequel will bring. Until then, it might be “The End" for rate cuts, but the show must go on for the Indian economy!

Simply Put: Boom or bust — how RBI’s decision to leave rates unchanged affects homebuyers

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

The <keyword id="20143656" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="turnover" source="keywords">turnover</keyword> of India's automotive component industry registered a <keyword id="19910261" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth" source="keywords">growth</keyword> of 9.8 per cent in the financial year 2023-24, according to the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (<keyword id="20475655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ACMA" source="keywords">ACMA</keyword>). The turnover stood at Rs 6.14 lakh crore (USD 74.1 billion) during the year, said the ACMA, the body representing India's auto component manufacturing industry, in its review for the fiscal year 2023-24, as per a release. <keyword id="20373789" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shradha-suri-marwah" source="keywords">Shradha Suri Marwah</keyword>, President, ACMA, and CMD, Subros, said that apart from an increase in <keyword id="21825714" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vehicle-production" source="keywords">vehicle production</keyword>, higher value addition from the component sector has led to growth in the auto components sector. "On the front of trade, whilst overall merchandise <keyword id="19916774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports" source="keywords">exports</keyword> from India witnessed degrowth in FY24, auto component exports have grown despite geopolitical challenges and an increase in logistics costs," Marwah said. Elaborating on the mood of the industry and outlook for the near future, Marwah mentioned, steady growth in the vehicle industry has resulted in the industry reaching pre-pandemic levels of performance in 2023-24 in most segments, however, the first quarter of FY25 witnessed somewhat slower offtake in <keyword id="20051501" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vehicle-sales" source="keywords">vehicle sales</keyword>, especially in passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, given the high base, due to inclement weather conditions and elections. "With strong macro-economic indicators, conducive government policies, and over 7 per cent growth projected for the Indian GDP, we are hopeful that the auto components industry will continue to perform well in 2024-25," Marwah added in the release. Following are some of the key findings of the ACMA Annual Industry Performance Review: Auto component sales to Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in the domestic market were at Rs 5.18 lakh crore (USD 62.4 billion), growing 8.9 per cent compared to the previous year. Consumption of increased value-added components, a thrust on localisation, and a shift in market preference towards larger and more powerful vehicles contributed to the increased turnover of the auto-components sector. Exports of auto components witnessed growth of 5.5 per cent to Rs USD 21.2 billion in 2023-24 in contrast to USD 20.1 billion in 2022-23. North America accounted for 32 per cent of exports. Europe accounted for another 33 per cent and Asia for 24 per cent, respectively. Exports to Europe grew by 12 per cent while to Asia remained flat. The key export items included drive transmission and steering, engine components, body and chassis, suspension and braking systems. Component imports grew by 3.0 per cent in 2023-24 to USD 20.9 billion from USD 20.3 billion in 2022-23. Further, increased vehicle movement and a surge in demand for used vehicles led to buoyancy in the aftermarket across all segments. The turnover of the aftermarket in 2023-24 stood at Rs 93,886 crore (USD 11.3 billion) compared to Rs 85,333 crore (USD 10.6 billion) in the previous year. The aftermarket, with an increase in e-commerce, is witnessing enhanced penetration, especially in the hinterland, and a gradual evolution into the organised sector. (ANI)

Indian auto component industry turnover grows 9.8% in 2023-24; outlook positive: ACMA review

It may not feel like it yet, but the housing market's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-ice-age-higher-home-prices-fewer-sales-inventory-2023-5">Ice Age</a> is finally thawing.Would-be buyers and sellers have found themselves stuck over the past couple of years. For-sale signs stood frozen in front yards as home shoppers balked at prices. Wild swings in mortgage rates discouraged almost everyone from venturing out into the market. Many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-housing-market-mortgage-buying-car-interest-rates-new-jobs-2024-3">felt as if they had no option but to stay put</a>. But when I talk to housing experts these days, they speak cautiously of a shift in the weather, a warming in store for American real estate.Green shoots are popping up everywhere. The typical borrowing rate for a 30-year home loan is near the lowest it's been in two years, which could nudge more sellers to emerge from hibernation. The pool of available homes on the market is larger than at any point since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the median home price nationwide is up by 3% to 5% compared with a year ago, that's actually within the range that economists typically look for in a well-balanced market. If things keep trending this way, we should expect to see this coming spring, the time of year when transactions typically pick up, that more people are ready to get moving again.Would this mean we're back to normal? Definitely not. Things may be more stable than they were during the peak of the home-trading frenzy or the depths of the slowdown, but that doesn't mean the housing market's problems are solved. It'll be hard for both buyers and sellers to shake off the pessimism of the past few years, especially when budgets are stretched so thin and home prices remain so high. That reality shouldn't obscure the encouraging signals, though. As I wrote earlier this year, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/denmark-mortgage-rates-lock-in-effect-home-buying-selling-easier-2024-5">gummed-up housing market</a> — the Ice Age I was talking about — is good for nobody. In half a year's time, we may be looking at a healthier one.There's a tendency to look at housing in binary terms: Is it a better time to be a seller or a buyer? But a lot of people fall into both camps; most sellers have to turn around and purchase another home to live in. Recently, this fact of life has created what Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, calls the "musical chairs" problem: People can't jump up and find a new home if their neighbors aren't making similar moves, so everyone's stuck in their seats.A big reason Americans find themselves trapped in place is what's known as the "lock-in effect." When mortgage rates hit multidecade lows during the pandemic, millions of people were able to snag or refinance their way into cheaper monthly costs. But starting in the spring of 2022, the rate for a typical mortgage soared, more than doubling from those pandemic-era lows. While it's come down from a two-decade peak last October, the prevailing loan terms are still about twice as expensive as they were back in 2021, which means a buyer could have to pay hundreds of dollars more each month toward interest than they would have a few years ago. A lot of people don't want to give up a good deal, so they don't make a change unless they absolutely have to. One paper from the Federal Housing Finance Agency suggested that the lock-in effect prevented a whopping 1.3 million home sales between mid-2022 and the end of 2023. A mere 2.5% of America's housing stock traded hands in the first eight months this year, according to Redfin, the lowest rate in at least three decades and 31% lower than in 2019.The recent drop in the typical rate for a 30-year loan — from about 7.2% in early May to 6.1% in early October — won't erase the lock-in effect, but it's an encouraging sign for buyers who have been grasping for anything that could ease the burden on their wallets. Even after a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">uptick in the last few days</a> following the unexpectedly strong jobs report, more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which signaled last month that it was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">turning its focus away from battling inflation</a>, could further bring down mortgage rates, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/mortgages/how-does-fed-impact-mortgage-rates">though there's not a direct connection between the two</a>. Fannie Mae, for instance, predicts the rate for a typical home loan could end next year at 5.7%. That'd be within spitting distance of what the experts at John Burns Research and Consulting, a housing-research firm, call the "magic mortgage rate." Among homeowners and renters who said they planned to use a mortgage to purchase their next home, 47% told the firm in September that they'd be willing to sign up for a rate between 5% and 5.49%. Even if rates continue their downward trajectory, changes in mortgage payments typically take about six months to show up in home-sales activity, Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, told me. So movement now could set the stage for a stronger uptick in sales next spring. Fannie Mae has also predicted that the total number of sales will be up by 10% in 2025 compared with this year, with most of that increase coming in the second half of the year.<div type="image" title="house for sale sign" height="1414" width="2121" msid="114076822" hostid="261" sizebytes="84578"></div>While mortgage-rate movement can be a helpful guide for future activity, to get a full picture of what's actually happening in the real-estate market, you need to look at two data points: inventory, or the number of available homes on the market, and new listings, or the number of homes hitting the market. Olsen, the Zillow economist, likens inventory to a swimming pool and new listings to the spigot that keeps water flowing — as with any pool, too full or too empty is a problem. A balanced market is one in which there are enough new homes to meet the demand from buyers, but not so many that prices plummet. We're still a long way from refilling the pool of homes on the market: Inventory in September was down by about 23% from pre-pandemic levels, according to Realtor.com. But there is clear improvement taking place here, too. The number of active listings in September was up by 34% from the same month a year ago, increasing to its highest level since April 2020. The number of homes newly listed for sale in September was also up by 11.6% from last year. By slowing down home sales, higher rates have given inventory time to build back up from pandemic lows — homes are lingering on the market longer with fewer buyers, so the pool's water level has steadily climbed.More homes to choose from, lower mortgage rates — that's a "powerful combination," said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, adding that sales should move higher in the coming months as a result. Buyers can take heart in another data point, which is that far fewer homes are being snapped up as soon as they hit the market. According to the housing-data firm Altos Research, there were about half as many "immediate sales" in late September as there were in 2022. "It looks like that frenzy is finally gone," Altos' president, Mike Simonsen, said in a recent video update. The baseline expectation for the spring, the Redfin economist Chen Zhao told me, is a modest uptick in sales and new listings. Most economists don't expect mortgage rates to fall dramatically, meaning sellers will slowly start to reenter the market as they decide it's time to make a change. New listings this year increased by about 5% a month on average compared with the same months in 2023 — you might expect to see that climb a little next year, Zhao told me, to maybe 10% year-over-year growth. The total number of homes on the market each month tended to be about 10% or 15% higher than last year, but you might see that rise to 20% or 25% when you compare 2025 with this year. This is the housing's version of a soft landing; there won't be dancing in the streets, but it would be a marked improvement from the past couple of years."Even though the housing market is recovering, the recovery is going to be very slow," Zhao told me. "We're not going to see anything like the activity that we saw in 2021 or 2020 — or even 2019, 2018 — for a while."Still, if buyers are feeling better about their prospects, that should grease the wheels of America's housing market.It is important to note that forecasts are just forecasts. There's a lot that could change in the next year. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4">strength of the job market</a> is a big question mark — people won't move if they don't feel sure about their next paycheck. There are huge regional differences to consider here, too. Builders have finished a lot more new housing in Sun Belt states in the lower half of the US, for example, which has made it harder for homeowners there to sell at their desired prices than for their counterparts in the Midwest or the Northeast. Affordability is still a huge pain point. An August survey by Fannie Mae suggested consumers were feeling remarkably optimistic about the future of mortgage rates, but only 17% of respondents said it was a good time to buy a home. Any one of these issues could chill the market and slow America's exit from the Ice Age.That said, it's impossible to ignore the signs of a shift underway. Mortgage rates are a key piece of the equation. I'll also be keeping a close eye on inventory and the pace of new listings hitting the market, which should heat back up starting around February and March. But all this focus on the numbers can obscure the simple fact that people have to move for all kinds of reasons that have nothing to do with a few digits and a percent sign.I recently spoke with Mark Palim, the chief economist at Fannie Mae, who left me with a salient piece of advice: "Leave timing the bond market to the hedge-fund guys." In other words, trying to predict mortgage rates — and buying or selling a home accordingly — is a fool's errand. Budgets matter, absolutely, and monthly payments are a crucial consideration for any buyer. But buyers and sellers should remember that their home isn't just an investment vehicle or a bet on where the economy is headed. At the end of the day, you have to live in it."All sorts of things can happen," Palim told me. "Rates may move. Home prices may go up, home prices may go down. But would you be happy living there for a while? Does it meet your needs?"<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/james-rodriguez">James Rodriguez</a> is a senior reporter on Business Insider's Discourse team.

The Housing Ice Age is thawing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Luxury companies' sales are tanking in China due to slowing consumer demand.</li><li>Chinese consumers are putting their money into safe assets rather than spending it.</li></ul>Luxury sales are suffering in the <a target="_blank" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN&amp;most_recent_value_desc=true">world's second-largest economy</a> as Chinese shoppers cut back on luxury spending.Kering, the latest luxury brand to report earnings, said on Wednesday that it continued to see a "deceleration" in Asia-Pacific. The company <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gucci-kering-income-decline-stock-down-hit-china-sales-slump-2024-4">warned in April</a> that recurring operating income for the first half of the year would slide up to 45%, compared to the first half of 2023. Two-thirds of Kering's revenue comes from Gucci, which has been especially hard hit in China as customers eschew the brand's older designs and buy at a discount overseas.LVMH <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lvmh-earnings-china-luxury-consumer-spending-marketing-shopping-japan-currency-2024-7">reported</a> a 13% decline in revenue — down to 12.4 billion euros, or $13.4 billion — for Asia in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. While LVMH did not specifically break out revenue from China, the company has seen sluggish Chinese consumer demand, particularly in the second quarter, said chief financial officer Jean-Jacques Guiony on Tuesday.Consumer spending in China has been improving "more moderately than before COVID-19," Luca Solca, a luxury goods analyst at Bernstein, told Business Insider.Chinese shoppers' reluctance to spend more despite higher<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-second-quarter-gdp-growth-weak-demand-consumption-exports-2024-7"> disposable incomes</a> "produces a 'growth relay' of relatively muted proportion, where even high-quality companies have generated low single-digit growth," Solca said.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-luxury-retail-sales-slowdown-brands-fashion-2024-7">LVMH's peers</a> have similarly seen slumps in revenue from China. In its most recent quarter, Burberry's Chinese sales revenue declined 21% from last year. In recent earnings, Kering, Swatch, and Hugo Boss expressed challenges in engaging a Chinese market with softening demand.Richemont also was barraged by the weakening Chinese consumer demand. Last week, the parent company of brands including Cartier <a target="_blank" href="https://www.richemont.com/media/iljbpjkt/ad-hoc-announcement-pursuant-to-art-53-lr-fy25-q1-sales-for-the-first-quarter-ended-30-june-2024.pdf">reported</a> a 27% decline in revenue in the combined markets of China, Hong Kong, and Macau, dragging total Asia Pacific sales down by 18%.<h2 id="31963d30-a7de-4331-9ab6-23d53dc55766">Massive discounts and online shopping</h2>To try to boost sales, luxury brands have given <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-brands-slash-prices-in-china-burberry-marc-jacobs-2024-7">massive discounts</a> to Chinese consumers. Brands including Balenciaga and Versace slashed prices by an average of 40% and 50%, respectively, to Chinese customers, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-13/luxury-labels-slash-prices-50-to-lure-wary-chinese-shoppers">Bloomberg</a> reported last month. In early July, Marc Jacobs offered more than 50% discounts on Alibaba's upscale e-commerce platform, Tmall Luxury Pavilion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d304beae-9a75-432c-b3b6-006a70a64b93">FT</a> reported. Burberry, Balenciaga, and Marc Jacobs did not respond to earlier requests for comment.This step into e-commerce is a change for luxury retailers, which have traditionally abstained from listing products online to avoid associating their brand with quick and convenient shopping, Damien Yeo, an analyst at Fitch Solutions, told BI. They're likely trying to clear stock, which could degrade their brands as some third-party platforms sell their goods at big discounts, Yeo said.A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7">recent survey</a> by US investment bank TD Cowen suggested that Chinese consumers are spending less on luxury goods while spending more on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-lopsided-recovery-consumer-retail-spending-industrial-output-property-2024-5">overseas travel </a>and safe assets such as gold. The government is also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-wants-nepo-baby-get-rich-quick-influencers-gone-2024-5">campaigning</a> against "money worship," so consumers may be less likely to buy something splashy, part of a broader <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-goods-sales-slow-clothes-shoes-china-bain-company-travel-2024-6">cultural tilt</a> toward "luxury shaming."Luxury goods are still popular with wealthy Chinese shoppers — just not in China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rich-chinese-flock-to-japan-in-search-of-luxury-bargains-2024-7">Japan</a> has been a popular tourist destination for the Chinese, thanks to the yen's 40-year low against the US dollar. This currency weakness has attracted "a big shift of business from Asia into Japan," said LVMH's Guiony on Tuesday. LVMH sales in Japan were boosted by 57% in the first half of the year, which Guiony attributed to a surge in Chinese tourists.Not all luxury brands are feeling the heat in China. Hermès saw a 17% spike in sales revenue in the first three months of the year due to its recession-resistant customer base, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-25/hermes-defies-luxury-slowdown-with-sales-jump-in-asia">Bloomberg</a> reported. Hermès is set to publish half-yearly financials on Thursday.

The luxury outlook in China just keeps getting worse

<ul><li><keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">Gold prices</keyword> have experienced a significant decline in the past month, largely due to the notable increase in US real yields. </li><li>The foreseen trajectory for gold prices encompasses a range of $1,900/oz to $2,000/oz within the initial half of 2024. </li><li>In the past month, Indian gold prices declined by approximately 1.2%. </li></ul>Gold prices have experienced a further decline of around four percent in the past month. This correction can be attributed to a significant increase of approximately 50 basis points observed in the US 10-year real yield, according to the Gold Research Report by ICICI Bank Global Markets. Gold traders have also kept an eye on the US Federal Reserve rate action. A Kotak Securities report says, “COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc) gold prices plunged for the third consecutive week, as robust US economic data and slightly hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (<keyword id="136502" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fomc" source="Orion">FOMC</keyword>) meeting minutes reinforced speculation that monetary policymakers may not be done raising interest rates yet.” <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook" comment="subhead" text="From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook">From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook</cmsannotation> According to the ICICI Bank Global Markets report, the upward movement of US nominal and real yields reflects a shift from anticipating a 'hard-landing' scenario for the US economy to a more optimistic 'soft-landing' outlook. “The safe haven metal has been continuously falling over the week, as upbeat economic data improved the conviction that US might avoid a hard landing and thus rates might stay higher for longer,” says Ravindra V Rao, VP-head commodity research, Kotak Securities. This change is driven by the resilience of <keyword id="18519909" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-domestic-demand" source="Orion">US domestic demand</keyword>, leading to a positive adjustment in growth forecasts for 2023. Additionally, market response has been influenced by indications from the FOMC that it might consider a 25 basis points rate hike at the November policy meeting, with an intention to maintain higher rates for an extended period. This decision is influenced by tight labour markets and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation levels that remain above the targeted 2%. However, rao says that gold prices have steadied ahead of this week’s <keyword id="747929" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jackson-hole" source="Orion">Jackson Hole</keyword> symposium in Wyoming and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a talk on the economic outlook on 25th August. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="subhead" text="Gold price outlook"><keyword id="1688476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-price-outlook" source="Orion">Gold price outlook</keyword></cmsannotation> Over the remaining course of 2023, a bearish trading environment is anticipated for gold prices, given the unlikely prospect of substantial declines in both US real and nominal yields. Analysts at ICICI Bank Global Markets have revised the projection for gold prices subsequently downward, indicating a trading range spanning from $1850/oz to $1950/oz, with a potential downside of $1800/oz throughout 2023. As the transition to 2024 approaches, the potential for an emerging uptrend in gold prices becomes contingent on the expectation that the delayed impact of US monetary tightening will induce a weakening effect on US growth. Such a scenario may result in a neutral stance from the FOMC regarding the outlook for monetary policy. Not excluding the possibility, the FOMC could initiate a rate-cutting cycle from Q2 2024, potentially leading to decreased US yields and an increased appetite for gold. Consequently, the foreseen trajectory for gold prices encompasses a range of $1900/oz to $2000/oz within the initial half of 2024. Additionally, an upswing in interest from central bank gold acquisitions might contribute to driving prices upward in the medium-term. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Indian gold view" comment="subhead" text="Indian gold view">Indian gold view</cmsannotation> In the past month, local gold prices declined by approximately 1.2%, aligning with global market movements; however, a strengthening USD/INR exchange rate moderated the extent of the drop. Importantly, gold imports surged notably, reaching 89 tonnes in July 2023 compared to 63 tonnes in June 2023. This increase translated to a higher import value of $5.0 billion in July 2023 compared to $3.7 billion in June 2023. This upward trend in imports mirrors robust domestic demand. Anticipated import patterns suggest a steady trend from August to September, followed by an increase in October and November due to the festive season.

Gold prices likely to stay muted for the rest of 2023 at least

<keyword id="19896016" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="new-delhi" source="keywords">New Delhi</keyword> [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], March 11 (ANI): Global rating agency Moody's expects India's economic growth in 2024-25 growth above that of other emerging market G20 peers, given its domestic demand managed to sustain momentum. India's real GDP growth accelerated to 8.4 per cent year over year in the October-December quarter of 2023, up from upwardly revised prints of 8.1 per cent in July-September and 8.2 per cent in April-June. The global rating agency Moody's attributed India's firm growth primarily to solid capital expenditure, defying private consumption which remained "sluggish" amid still-weak rural demand. On the supply side, an 11.6 per cent surge in manufacturing output and strong service sector activity more than offset a decline in agricultural output in India, it said. Even so, it said high-frequency indicators, including expanding <keyword id="20905252" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-managers" source="keywords">Purchasing Managers</keyword>' Index (PMI), rising auto sales, consumer optimism and double-digit credit growth, suggest that the economy's strong October-December momentum carried into January-March this year. "Some of the large emerging market (EMs) countries stood out in 2023 for their resilient economies amid high-interest rates, exchange rate volatility, subdued capital flows and muted external demand. This year, we expect growth to slow across several major EMs as the economies transition to a post-pandemic steady growth path," Moody's said in its Macro Monday report, chaptered 'G-20 emerging markets are poised for growth stabilization'. In its recently published <keyword id="20905253" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-macro-outlook" source="keywords">Global Macro Outlook</keyword>, it forecasted G20 emerging market growth to stabilize around 4.0 per cent in 2024 and 2025, down from 4.7 per cent in 2023 as global monetary policy gradually normalises. On an annual basis, domestic demand was the primary engine of growth in several G20 emerging markets. "We believe growth cycles in India and Indonesia are at their peak, Brazil and Mexico are likely past their peak, and <keyword id="19899437" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="south-africa" source="keywords">South Africa</keyword>'s growth has likely troughed. Nevertheless, we expect relatively stable growth at close to potential in 2024 and 2025 for most G-20 EMs." On the policy side, the rating agency expects continuity after the general election in April-May and continued focus on infrastructure development. It forecasts India's real GDP to grow about 6.8 per cent in 2024 and 6.4 per cent in 2025, from 7.7 per cent in 2023. India's GDP grew at a massive 8.4 per cent during the October-December quarter of the current financial year 2023-24 and the country continued to remain the fastest-growing major economy. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent during the preceding two quarters - April-June and July-September. The strength of domestic demand has driven the economy to a 7 per cent plus growth rate in the last three years. India's economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, respectively. In the next three years, India is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of USD 5 trillion. India can aspire to become a USD 7 trillion economy in the next six to seven years (by 2030), India's finance ministry recently asserted. (ANI)

Domestic demand to keep India's growth above other G20 emerging markets: Moody's

<ul><li>The positive momentum in the <keyword id="6354553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Real-estate" source="Orion">real estate</keyword> sector can hold on till the first quarter of 2023 say experts. </li><li>From the second quarter onwards, demand will be determined by interest rates, say experts. </li><li>The property rates could further shoot by 8% at least next year, due to rising input costs.</li></ul><keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>’s <keyword id="35288" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-market" source="Orion">real estate market</keyword>, which has been buoyant since the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to continue with its growth momentum in the first quarter of 2023, according to experts. Few experts are willing to make predictions beyond the first three months of the next year, due to uncertainty. They believe that an after-effect of global economic slowdown might have a role to play in the property purchase decisions of Indians. “There is a possibility of a recession in major global markets including the US and India cannot be decoupled from it. There could be some repercussions in the Indian market by way of layoffs which in turn may slow down the residential demand, if at all,” Anuj Puri, Chairman – Anarock Group, told Business Insider India. Moreover, in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised base interest rates for the fifth time in seven months – taking it to 6.25%. Consequently, banks are expected to pass on the hiked interest rates to the consumers – increasing the cost of home ownership. Added to that, analysts say that the burden of home loans will be higher as many consumers have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/be-prepared-to-pay-higher-emis-no-room-for-loan-tenor-increase-after-rbis-latest-rate-hike/articleshow/96052276.cms">exhausted the option of increasing</a> home loan tenures without impacting their EMIs – in the last four interest rate hikes. The direction of repo rate hikes will guide the housing property demand in 2023, and experts say that there could be more such hikes ahead. “A lot will also depend on how the home loan interest rates pan out over the next year. While so far, the impact of the rate hikes has been minimal but if the rates rise further, it may go on to impact residential sales,” Puri added. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="New launches may remain muted" comment="subhead" text="New launches may remain muted">New launches may remain muted</cmsannotation> According to Puri, new launches across the country overall may remain muted in the coming year. “We may see muted new launches in the new year as many developers would rather wait and watch how the global and Indian markets pan out over the year and if all goes well then we may see new launches increase in the second half of 2023,” Puri said. However, new launches in the Jan-Sept period of 2022 surpassed full-year readings of 2019 with approximately 2.65 lakh units launched in the nine-months period, according to Anarock data. MMR, Hyderabad, Pune have been ruling the charts for the last two quarters in terms of new launches. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Property rates to rise in 2023" comment="subhead" text="Property rates to rise in 2023">Property rates to rise in 2023</cmsannotation> That’s just one side of the coin. Hurt by low demand, many developers have not been increasing property rates for the last few years. But input costs have started hurting construction companies and the overall property rates increased by 5-7% in 2022. Next year, the real estate price hikes will be steeper at around 8% at least next year, according to Puri. This however might not affect demand as much, a few developers feel. Younger generation wants to own a home instead of renting – and this mindset change will aid real estate companies. “We have seen housing prices rise by 5-8% in 2022 but property sales remained robust as real estate became a favorite asset class among potential homebuyers. This momentum is likely to continue next year as developers are wary about the positive home buying sentiment and consumer’s goal for financial security,” Rahul Purohit, national sales head, Square Yards, told Business Insider India. Price increases, developers say, have little effect on intent to own homes as they have proven to be the best asset class for investment as compared to gold and equities. “Property price corrections won’t deter affordable home buying plans as consumers have full confidence in real estate as the best asset class,” Purohit added. Property demand is expected to be high across tier 1 cities, according to Square Yards. Reopening of offices, and increased business activity will guide residential demand in Mumbai, Delhi, Noida, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Gurgaon and Chennai. Demand is also expected to be high in Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Kochi, Indore, Agra, Varanasi, Gwalior etc. due to the massive infrastructural growth seen in these cities. Hiring in the real estate industry increased 10% in November on both month-on-month and year-on-year, according to foundit (formerly known as Monster) Insights Tracker (FIT) – indicating that the sector anticipates better times ahead. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The luxury of growth" comment="subhead" text="The luxury of growth">The luxury of growth</cmsannotation> The growing wealth of Indians and increased number of HNI or high networth individuals is another factor that’s fuelling the demand for luxury homes. Several reports suggest that the luxury house segment has acquired a lion’s share in overall home sales numbers in the year 2022. According to a recent survey conducted by India Sotheby’s International Realty, a larger number of HNIs are proposing to buy luxury property in the next two years. “Various real estate consultants cited that sales of luxury apartments witnessed significant growth month on month during the year. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region accounted for more than half of these sales,” Ram Raheja, managing director at S Raheja Realty, told Business Insider India. Raheja further added, “Enabled by a much higher purchasing power to the steep rupee fall — the Indian currency has breached the 82-mark against the US dollar — NRIs are also viewing this as a great opportunity to build bigger and better assets back home.” Apart from celebrities like Janhvi Kapoor and Madhuri Dixit and many more, startup founders and stakeholders too are people keen on the luxury housing market. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/whatsapp-working-on-feature-to-let-users-report-status-updates/articleshow/96479567.cms">WhatsApp working on feature to let users report status updates</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/covid-19-random-testing-of-international-arriving-passengers-begins-at-delhi-airport/articleshow/96473834.cms">Covid-19: Random testing of international arriving passengers begins at Delhi airport</a>

You Searched For "Housing demand outlook 2023" and got 8 results

Simply Put: Boom or bust — how RBI’s decision to leave rates unchanged affects homebuyers

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The luxury outlook in China just keeps getting worse

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Gold prices likely to stay muted for the rest of 2023 at least

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Domestic demand to keep India's growth above other G20 emerging markets: Moody's

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Housing demand outlook 2023: Interest rates, global spillovers to play a key role

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