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<keyword id="19895040" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="real-estate" source="keywords">Real estate</keyword> was India's asset of choice for investment in the first half of 2024, noted a recent FICCI-ANAROCK report. About 59% of the 7,615 respondents across 14 Indian cities expressed their desire to invest in real estate. Out of these, 67% of respondents wanted to buy a house to live in it, while the remaining 33% viewed it as an investment.<br /><br />Out of this 33%, the majority (57%) wanted to earn rental yields from the same, while another 20% planned to sell their property after its price has appreciated significantly. The remaining 23% viewed real estate as an asset for securing their future.<br /><br />Even for millennials, buying a house featured at the top of their priorities. 66% of millennials and 41% of generation X respondents highlighted that they intended to utilize their investment gains to buy a house in the future.<br /><br />What was also notable was the significant decline in demand for ready-to-move in units and a corresponding rise in demand for under-construction units. During the first half of 2024, for every 20 individuals who preferred a ready-to-move-in house, 25 respondents chose a new launch or under-construction property. This ratio was at 32:21 in the first half of 2021.<br /><br />Some of the reasons why over 53% of homebuyers are dissatisfied with the current available options when it comes to <keyword id="20254620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="affordable-housing" source="keywords">affordable housing</keyword> are location accessibility (92%), poor quality construction design (84%), and small unit sizes (68%). Even the supply in the affordable housing category across the top 7 Indian cities has considerably shrunk over the last 3 years, from 26% in 2021 to just 17% as of September 2024.<br /><br />However, this differed based on the city. While over 50% of respondents chose 3BHK apartments in cities like Chennai, Hyderabad, Delhi-NCR, and Bengaluru, over 40% preferred a 2BHK in other metros like Kolkata.<br />Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Pune. <br /><br />However, that does not mean that there is little demand for luxury homes. 28% of respondents preferred buying a house between the range of Rs 90 lakh and Rs 1.5 crore. This was a mere 18% prior to the pandemic. However, the most common budget range for houses remained between Rs 45-90 lakh, with 35% of respondents choosing the same.<br /><br />As far as under-construction properties are concerned, a staggering 98% of respondents prefer timely project completion, 93% choose improved construction quality, and 72% prefer a well-lit, ventilated home. <br /><br />The report further noted that Indians are increasingly inclined towards larger, more luxurious living spaces. 3BHKs and apartments remained the most preferred choice of residence and property type, with 51% and 58% of respondents opting for them, respectively. Residential plots were also seen gaining traction, particularly in southern India, with 30% of respondents in Chennai, 29% in Bengaluru, and 27% in Hyderabad preferring them.<br /><br /><keyword id="21483825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="home-loan-interest-rates" source="keywords">Home loan interest rates</keyword> also significantly influenced home buying decisions. If the rates are below 8.5%, it would have minimal impact on buying decisions for around 71% of respondents. However, interest rates exceeding 9% would significantly impact 87% of buyers.<br /><br />With the RBI currently deciding to hold off on slashing interest rates in October for the 10th consecutive time, home loan rates are likely to stay elevated in the future. Experts estimate that the RBI will start cutting interest rates early next year.<br /><br />

Real estate continues to dominate India's investment portfolios, shows FICCI report

<p class="drop-cap">It may not feel like it yet, but the housing market's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-ice-age-higher-home-prices-fewer-sales-inventory-2023-5">Ice Age</a> is finally thawing.</p><p>Would-be buyers and sellers have found themselves stuck over the past couple of years. For-sale signs stood frozen in front yards as home shoppers balked at prices. Wild swings in mortgage rates discouraged almost everyone from venturing out into the market. Many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-housing-market-mortgage-buying-car-interest-rates-new-jobs-2024-3">felt as if they had no option but to stay put</a>. But when I talk to housing experts these days, they speak cautiously of a shift in the weather, a warming in store for American real estate.</p><p>Green shoots are popping up everywhere. The typical borrowing rate for a 30-year home loan is near the lowest it's been in two years, which could nudge more sellers to emerge from hibernation. The pool of available homes on the market is larger than at any point since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the median home price nationwide is up by 3% to 5% compared with a year ago, that's actually within the range that economists typically look for in a well-balanced market. If things keep trending this way, we should expect to see this coming spring, the time of year when transactions typically pick up, that more people are ready to get moving again.</p><p>Would this mean we're back to normal? Definitely not. Things may be more stable than they were during the peak of the home-trading frenzy or the depths of the slowdown, but that doesn't mean the housing market's problems are solved. It'll be hard for both buyers and sellers to shake off the pessimism of the past few years, especially when budgets are stretched so thin and home prices remain so high. That reality shouldn't obscure the encouraging signals, though. As I wrote earlier this year, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/denmark-mortgage-rates-lock-in-effect-home-buying-selling-easier-2024-5">gummed-up housing market</a> — the Ice Age I was talking about — is good for nobody. In half a year's time, we may be looking at a healthier one.</p><p class="drop-cap">There's a tendency to look at housing in binary terms: Is it a better time to be a seller or a buyer? But a lot of people fall into both camps; most sellers have to turn around and purchase another home to live in. Recently, this fact of life has created what Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, calls the "musical chairs" problem: People can't jump up and find a new home if their neighbors aren't making similar moves, so everyone's stuck in their seats.</p><p>A big reason Americans find themselves trapped in place is what's known as the "lock-in effect." When mortgage rates hit multidecade lows during the pandemic, millions of people were able to snag or refinance their way into cheaper monthly costs. But starting in the spring of 2022, the rate for a typical mortgage soared, more than doubling from those pandemic-era lows. While it's come down from a two-decade peak last October, the prevailing loan terms are still about twice as expensive as they were back in 2021, which means a buyer could have to pay hundreds of dollars more each month toward interest than they would have a few years ago. A lot of people don't want to give up a good deal, so they don't make a change unless they absolutely have to. One paper from the Federal Housing Finance Agency suggested that the lock-in effect prevented a whopping 1.3 million home sales between mid-2022 and the end of 2023. A mere 2.5% of America's housing stock traded hands in the first eight months this year, according to Redfin, the lowest rate in at least three decades and 31% lower than in 2019.</p><p>The recent drop in the typical rate for a 30-year loan — from about 7.2% in early May to 6.1% in early October — won't erase the lock-in effect, but it's an encouraging sign for buyers who have been grasping for anything that could ease the burden on their wallets. Even after a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">uptick in the last few days</a> following the unexpectedly strong jobs report, more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which signaled last month that it was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">turning its focus away from battling inflation</a>, could further bring down mortgage rates, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/mortgages/how-does-fed-impact-mortgage-rates">though there's not a direct connection between the two</a>. Fannie Mae, for instance, predicts the rate for a typical home loan could end next year at 5.7%. That'd be within spitting distance of what the experts at John Burns Research and Consulting, a housing-research firm, call the "magic mortgage rate." Among homeowners and renters who said they planned to use a mortgage to purchase their next home, 47% told the firm in September that they'd be willing to sign up for a rate between 5% and 5.49%. Even if rates continue their downward trajectory, changes in mortgage payments typically take about six months to show up in home-sales activity, Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, told me. So movement now could set the stage for a stronger uptick in sales next spring. Fannie Mae has also predicted that the total number of sales will be up by 10% in 2025 compared with this year, with most of that increase coming in the second half of the year.</p><div type="image" title="house for sale sign" height="1414" width="2121" msid="114076822" hostid="261" sizebytes="84578"></div><p>While mortgage-rate movement can be a helpful guide for future activity, to get a full picture of what's actually happening in the real-estate market, you need to look at two data points: inventory, or the number of available homes on the market, and new listings, or the number of homes hitting the market. Olsen, the Zillow economist, likens inventory to a swimming pool and new listings to the spigot that keeps water flowing — as with any pool, too full or too empty is a problem. A balanced market is one in which there are enough new homes to meet the demand from buyers, but not so many that prices plummet. We're still a long way from refilling the pool of homes on the market: Inventory in September was down by about 23% from pre-pandemic levels, according to Realtor.com. But there is clear improvement taking place here, too. The number of active listings in September was <em>up</em> by 34% from the same month a year ago, increasing to its highest level since April 2020. The number of homes newly listed for sale in September was also up by 11.6% from last year. By slowing down home sales, higher rates have given inventory time to build back up from pandemic lows — homes are lingering on the market longer with fewer buyers, so the pool's water level has steadily climbed.</p><p>More homes to choose from, lower mortgage rates — that's a "powerful combination," said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, adding that sales should move higher in the coming months as a result. Buyers can take heart in another data point, which is that far fewer homes are being snapped up as soon as they hit the market. According to the housing-data firm Altos Research, there were about half as many "immediate sales" in late September as there were in 2022. "It looks like that frenzy is finally gone," Altos' president, Mike Simonsen, said in a recent video update.</p>          <p>The baseline expectation for the spring, the Redfin economist Chen Zhao told me, is a modest uptick in sales and new listings. Most economists don't expect mortgage rates to fall dramatically, meaning sellers will slowly start to reenter the market as they decide it's time to make a change. New listings this year increased by about 5% a month on average compared with the same months in 2023 — you might expect to see that climb a little next year, Zhao told me, to maybe 10% year-over-year growth. The total number of homes on the market each month tended to be about 10% or 15% higher than last year, but you might see that rise to 20% or 25% when you compare 2025 with this year. This is the housing's version of a soft landing; there won't be dancing in the streets, but it would be a marked improvement from the past couple of years.</p><p>"Even though the housing market is recovering, the recovery is going to be very slow," Zhao told me. "We're not going to see anything like the activity that we saw in 2021 or 2020 — or even 2019, 2018 — for a while."</p><p>Still, if buyers are feeling better about their prospects, that should grease the wheels of America's housing market.</p><p class="drop-cap">It is important to note that forecasts are just forecasts. There's a lot that could change in the next year. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4">strength of the job market</a> is a big question mark — people won't move if they don't feel sure about their next paycheck. There are huge regional differences to consider here, too. Builders have finished a lot more new housing in Sun Belt states in the lower half of the US, for example, which has made it harder for homeowners there to sell at their desired prices than for their counterparts in the Midwest or the Northeast. Affordability is still a huge pain point. An August survey by Fannie Mae suggested consumers were feeling remarkably optimistic about the future of mortgage rates, but only 17% of respondents said it was a good time to buy a home. Any one of these issues could chill the market and slow America's exit from the Ice Age.</p><p>That said, it's impossible to ignore the signs of a shift underway. Mortgage rates are a key piece of the equation. I'll also be keeping a close eye on inventory and the pace of new listings hitting the market, which should heat back up starting around February and March. But all this focus on the numbers can obscure the simple fact that people have to move for all kinds of reasons that have nothing to do with a few digits and a percent sign.</p><p>I recently spoke with Mark Palim, the chief economist at Fannie Mae, who left me with a salient piece of advice: "Leave timing the bond market to the hedge-fund guys." In other words, trying to predict mortgage rates — and buying or selling a home accordingly — is a fool's errand. Budgets matter, absolutely, and monthly payments are a crucial consideration for any buyer. But buyers and sellers should remember that their home isn't just an investment vehicle or a bet on where the economy is headed. At the end of the day, you have to live in it.</p><p>"All sorts of things can happen," Palim told me. "Rates may move. Home prices may go up, home prices may go down. But would you be happy living there for a while? Does it meet your needs?"</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/james-rodriguez"><em><u>James Rodriguez</u></em></a><em> is a senior reporter on Business Insider's Discourse team.</em></p>

The Housing Ice Age is thawing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Affordable housing is one of America's top economic concerns heading into the election.</li><li>Detailed below is what Harris and Trump have proposed in order to address these worries.</li></ul><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">Election Day</a> is around the corner and some Americans are already casting their ballots in early voting. For many, affordable housing is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/2024-election-and-the-economy-survey/">top</a> concern.</p><p>In the third of Business Insider's five-part series for the final stretch before the election, BI is looking at the ways each candidate and their associated policies will impact the price of housing. (Read <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">part 1</a> about investments, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">part 2</a> about costs.)</p><p>Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both pledged to address high prices by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/homes-free-government-land-real-estate-housing-prices-harris-trump-2024-8">boosting the supply of homes</a>. They've also floated plans to increase affordable housing while offering different viewpoints on home construction in rural and urban areas.</p><p>Detailed below are four elements of the housing-price equation, and what both the Harris and Trump camps have either proposed or already done.</p><h2 id="1827e262-8518-4344-bd61-fda006799bbc">Increasing housing supply</h2><p>Harris has said she will work with the private sector and homebuilders to construct <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">3 million more homes</a> by the end of her first term. She also plans to create a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-proposal-25k-first-time-homebuyers-down-payent-2024-8">$40 billion federal innovation fund</a> that encourages local governments to build housing.</p><p>This is in response to an ongoing US housing shortage. The US was short about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-06-18-The-U-S-is-now-short-4-5-million-homes-as-the-housing-deficit-grows">4.5 million homes</a> in 2022, a recent Zillow report found. And that same year the number of US families increased by 1.8 million, but just 1.4 million housing units were built.</p><p>The Democratic candidate also said she plans to expand the existing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">low-income housing tax credit</a>, which incentivizes the rehabilitation or building of housing targeted at lower-income households.</p><p>"Harris is trying to increase the supply of townhomes, duplexes, and condos, so that people can have an easier step onto the housing ladder than what they currently have," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at the real estate firm Redfin, told BI.</p><p>Fairweather added that Trump has talked a little bit about cutting red tape, referring to building permits and zoning laws that prevent new housing developments, but that he hasn't provided details. He also said he would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/trump-vows-hell-cut-regs-to-build-housing-on-federal-land/">designate more federal land</a> for housing.</p><p>Some experts have concerns that Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariff-outlook-trade-policy-income-tax-consequences-fiscal-crisis-2024-7">high tariff proposals</a> on materials like steel would make it harder to build housing. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-05/pb24-1.pdf">A report</a> published in May<strong> </strong>from the nonpartisan think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts they will<strong> </strong>make<strong> </strong>construction more expensive. High construction costs have been a major factor in the US' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-theres-a-housing-shortage-not-enough-homes-high-prices-2022-5">underbuilding of homes</a>.</p><p>On the campaign trail, the former president has remarked that the housing supply will improve once <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-deport-20-million-immigrants-reduce-home-prices-rents-2024-7">millions of people are deported</a> from the country. Builders have argued that such an effort would only <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-immigration-deportations-home-building-costs-rcna172886">drive up costs</a>, as immigrant labor makes up a vital part of the construction industry.</p><p>Trump has also said he would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/business/undocumented-immigrants-trump-mortgage-ban/index.html">ban mortgages for undocumented immigrants</a> to decrease demand on the housing market. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/business/undocumented-immigrants-trump-mortgage-ban/index.html">Experts have said</a> this group makes up a small portion of the US mortgage market.</p><h2 id="6cfbfb8d-3edd-447a-a479-1e8d09b5bb3b"><strong>First-time homebuyer assistance</strong></h2><p>Harris has proposed offering up to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-down-payment-assistance-plan-25000-housing-crisis-affordability-zillow-2024-8">$25,000 in down-payment assistance</a> for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for at least two years.</p><p>Harris has also said she would offer tax incentives to homebuilders who prioritize "starter homes." Experts have said Harris' down-payment assistance plan would boost overall home prices because it would increase demand for mortgages <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/determining-the-price-impact-of-harris-down-payment-assistance-proposal/">without solving supply issues</a>.</p><p>Although Trump has said that he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-housing-crisis-policy-rising-home-prices-apartment-rents-2024-6">would offer tax incentives</a> to first-time homebuyers, his campaign has not released details about the amount of aid.</p><p>As president, Trump proposed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-housing-crisis-policy-rising-home-prices-apartment-rents-2024-6">major cuts</a> to the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development's budget, including slashing housing assistance and community development aid.</p><p>"Qualifying income for a household to be able to afford the typical price of a home right now is six figures," Jessica Lautz, the deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, said. "That can be really impossible to imagine for someone who is a school teacher."</p><h2 id="622bc6c7-b5ce-4d83-9740-314714da24ed"><strong>Urban vs. rural housing</strong></h2><p>In dense urban areas, Harris hopes her plan can usher in new construction by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/yimbys-harris-housing-policy-walz-lower-home-prices-affordability-2024-8">removing some zoning restrictions</a> that prevent multifamily townhomes, condos, and duplexes from being built.</p><p>Harris has emphasized her desire to expand housing in rural America in recent weeks. In a <a target="_blank" href="https://static.politico.com/6c/c1/6cc380c24392aef810eaf3ae648f/harris-campaign-rural-plan.pdf">memo</a> released in September, she said her plan would include $7.2 billion in infrastructure investments and potentially boost economic growth.</p><p>While in the White House, Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-protect-americas-suburbs-11597608133">opposed</a> the construction of high-density housing in single-family zoned<strong> </strong>areas, arguing that he would "save" the suburbs from the Democratic Party. It's unclear if Trump still wants to pursue similar policies.</p><p>While in office in 2017, Trump proposed a budget for the 2018 fiscal year that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/05/23/heavy-cuts-to-rural-development-and-infrastructure-in-latest-trump-budget/">would have significantly cut</a> rural housing subsidies. The bulk of these proposals never came to fruition.</p><h2 id="e4a11dbe-840d-4cd2-960e-91b271fa111b"><strong>Action against big landlords</strong></h2><p>Harris has said she will take action against "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-ban-landlords-raising-rent-algorithms-realpage-2024-8">corporate landlords</a>," and call on Congress to remove tax benefits from investors who acquire 50 or more single-family rental homes. Her planned investment in a federal innovation fund would also incentivize cities to build more rental options.</p><p>This is in response to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/renter-households-cost-burdened-race.html">nearly half</a> of America's renters in 2024 being considered "cost-burdened," meaning at least 30% of their income goes to housing. In some cities, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-wage-growth-rent-increases-texas-housing-costs-florida-nyc-2024-5">higher rents are also outpacing wages</a>.</p><p>While Trump has called for the construction of more housing — which would include rental units and homes — he has not provided details about how his plan would specifically impact renters. While in office,<strong> </strong>Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-13945-fighting-the-spread-covid-19-providing-assistance-renters-and#:~:text=Prior%20to%20passage%20of%20the%20Coronavirus%20Aid,">implemented</a> a temporary eviction moratorium to keep Americans housed during the pandemic.</p>

How the cost of housing is expected to change under Trump or Harris

<ul class="summary-list"><li>High housing costs, driven in large part by a shortage of homes, are keeping inflation sticky.</li><li>Trump has pledged to lower housing costs.</li></ul><p>Housing costs were responsible for about 2/3 of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">overall inflation</a> over the past year.</p><p>President-elect Donald Trump has promised to lower those costs, and economists think some of his policy proposals could do just that. The most promising are cutting federal regulations on construction, opening up federal land for housing, and lowering energy costs.</p><p>However, his proposals to increase tariffs, deport millions of immigrants, and cut housing assistance could increase home prices and rents. The inflationary effects of these policies could prevent the Federal Reserve from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-uncertainty-trump-presidency-inflation-tariffs-2024-11">continuing to cut interest rates</a>.</p><p>Ultimately, housing policy experts and industry leaders say housing costs will largely depend on how much new supply can be delivered to the market, which is suffering from a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-06-18-The-U-S-is-now-short-4-5-million-homes-as-the-housing-deficit-grows">severe shortage of homes</a>.</p><p>Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team, told Business Insider in a statement that Trump "will deliver" on "lowering housing costs for all Americans."</p><p>Here are the major Trump proposals and how they're expected to affect housing costs.</p><h2 id="83e6f785-033e-42e0-9de6-8470b9cef43d"><strong>Regulations</strong></h2><p>Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://singjupost.com/full-transcript-trump-speaks-at-the-economic-club-of-new-york/?singlepage=1">promised</a> to reduce federal regulations that make home building more costly "with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half," he said.</p><p>When it comes to housing, state and local governments <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-build-like-tokyo-housing-crisis-doom-loop-2023-10">control the majority of regulations</a> that most inflate housing costs by limiting or slowing down construction. But federal regulations also play a role. Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, told Business Insider that he'd like Trump to roll back some of the Biden administration's energy efficiency requirements, streamline regulations under the Clean Water Act, and loosen a requirement that Federal Housing Administration borrowers' homes be up to code.</p><p>But Trump hasn't always favored cutting regulations to encourage more development. During his first term, he rescinded <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/politics/trump-housing-discrimination-suburbs.html">an Obama-era</a> rule designed to reduce racial segregation and said he would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/29/trump-housing-policy-low-income-suburbs-386414">protect the suburbs</a> from low-income housing by allowing them to maintain strict local zoning laws. Experts say that if Trump continues to protect single-family zoning, that would further limit construction.</p><p>"We need all options on the table when it comes to increasing housing supply, which means allowing more density in suburbs or cities to allow more units to be produced," Tobin said.</p><h2 id="433280bd-da72-477a-a5b0-a9fb98993d77"><strong>Building on federal land</strong></h2><p>Last year, Trump rolled out a plan to build up to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-freedom-cities-build-housing-conservatives-scoff-at-leftist-plan-2023-3">10 "freedom cities"</a> on federal land, featuring plentiful single-family homes. Since then, the president-elect has said his second administration would create "ultra-low tax and ultra-low regulation" zones on federal land for "large-scale housing construction."</p><p>There's some bipartisan support for building homes on federal land, and housing experts say the proposal has the potential to increase the housing supply, particularly in Western states like Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, which have large tracts of federally owned land.</p><p>"Building towards affordable housing on these lands could have a transformative impact, especially because land costs are a major barrier," Maurice Page, executive director of the nonpartisan Nevada Housing Coalition, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/homes-free-government-land-real-estate-housing-prices-harris-trump-2024-8">recently told Business Insider</a>.</p><h2 id="3071e368-bbc9-4dcc-9220-fad6b12c7c9f"><strong>Energy costs</strong></h2><p>Vice President-elect JD Vance <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pPCCh_t4h8">has promised</a> that the Trump administration would boost home building in part by drilling for more oil and making energy cheaper. Construction industry experts and economists say lower energy costs wouldn't hurt affordability but likely <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-drilling-oil-housing-rent-home-prices-construction-2024-10">wouldn't significantly increase construction or bring housing costs down</a>.</p><p>"Energy prices are significant, but they're not as significant as many other inputs," Anirban Basu, chief economist at the construction industry trade group Associated Builders and Contractors, recently told Business Insider.</p><h2 id="0aab8f5a-24a4-4d4b-af03-aa4d6c484f8b"><strong>Interest rates</strong></h2><p>Trump has repeatedly said that his administration would tame inflation and, therefore, lower interest rates. During <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://singjupost.com/full-transcript-trump-speaks-at-the-economic-club-of-new-york/?singlepage=1">a speech</a> at the Economic Club of New York in September he said he'd bring mortgage interest rates down to 3% or lower. His say over rates is limited; the Federal Reserve controls interest rates and operates <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/business/economy/trump-interest-rates-fed.html">independently of the president</a>.</p><p>Tobin said he expects mortgage rates will settle into a "new normal" of about 5 to 5.5% by 2026, lower than the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-rise-four-month-high-679-2024-11-07/">current 30-year fixed rate of 6.79%</a> but above the prepandemic average. "It's going to be a bumpy ride down," he added, noting that mortgage rates <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/business/economy/mortgage-rates-trump-inflation.html">recently rose</a> to a four-month high even as the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates.</p><p>Many economists say that Trump's proposals to cut taxes, impose significant new tariffs on imports, and deport millions of immigrants <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">would have an inflationary effect</a> and discourage the Federal Reserve — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">whose independence</a> Trump has threatened — from further cutting rates.</p><p>When it comes to housing costs, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/buying-home-not-easier-interest-rate-cuts-prices-rent-crisis-2024-8">many economists say</a> that even if mortgage rates come down, that could spur additional demand for housing, sending prices further up.</p><h2 id="4cba3ba3-082c-4c85-9e1e-0317e4daa343"><strong>Tariffs</strong></h2><p>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-enthusiasm-tariffs.html">campaigned</a> on imposing a 60% tax on products from China and 10 to 20% tariffs on most other foreign goods. These include key building materials like lumber and steel, which make up a significant portion of the cost of building a home. Tariffs would also impact the prices of other materials and finished products, like air conditioning units and garage doors.</p><p>Biden has kept some of those tariffs in place and even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/12/07/1061329725/why-is-the-biden-administration-increasing-the-cost-of-building-houses">raised taxes on Canadian softwood lumber</a>, which is crucial to the US home-building industry. Expanding the tariffs further would likely drive up building costs.</p><p>"If there are huge tariffs getting thrown around, that really hurts home builders," Ben Metcalf, a housing policy expert at UC Berkeley, told Business Insider. "those could be huge drags on cost and therefore on supply."</p><h2 id="3fbffb09-3764-4c37-b965-c4165bd9b487"><strong>Mass deportations</strong></h2><p>Trump and Vance have repeatedly argued that their plans to deport millions of immigrants will alleviate housing affordability issues by lowering demand.</p><p>But many <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-said-migrants-to-blame-for-expensive-homes-wrong-2024-8">economists</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">disagree</a> and posit that mass deportations would actually inflate housing costs. The construction industry is already short around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crisis-national-shortage-construction-workers-job-demand-2024-5">500,000 workers</a>, and a further reduction in the labor force would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportations-immigration-homebuilders-remove-construction-workers-spike-costs-2024-11">slow down construction and inflate prices even more</a>. Immigrants are a key part of building housing as they make up <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/12/immigrant-share-in-construction-highest-on-record/">about a quarter</a> of the construction workforce. An <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.constructiondive.com/news/construction-workers-undocumented-presidential-election/729556/#:~:text=Immigrants%20entering%20the%20country%20illegally,all%20workers%20in%20construction%20jobs."><u>estimated 15 to 23%</u></a> of that overall workforce are undocumented immigrants.</p><p>"Just even the talk of mass deportations could send a chill through the entire immigrant employment sector," Tobin said. "Anything that constricts labor in the country will have an impact on us meeting those housing goals over the next few years."</p><h2 id="f3107caf-cafa-4d60-ad2b-15ff8c5770a5"><strong>Federal housing assistance</strong></h2><p>During his first term, Trump repeatedly proposed major cuts to housing assistance for households with low incomes or members with disabilities. In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-administration-budgets-and-programs-for-people-of-limited-means/#housing-and-rental-assistance">each of his annual budgets</a>, he proposed stripping funding from many rental and homeownership assistance programs, including significantly cutting back on housing vouchers and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/04/25/hud-secretary-ben-carson-to-propose-raising-rent-for-low-income-americans-receiving-federal-housing-subsidies/">raising rent on low-income households</a> that receive federal aid.</p><p>All of Trump's budgets also proposed dramatically cutting federal funding for programs that help build and renovate affordable housing. While Congress didn't approve those cuts, policy experts expect the next Trump administration to pursue the same goals. This would make it harder for lower-income Americans to afford homes and slow down affordable housing construction.</p><p>"I just don't think there's any interest by Trump or by a Republican Congress in investing in certain traditional HUD programs and investments," Metcalf said.</p>

4 ways Trump's housing plans are expected to hurt homebuyers and 3 ways they could help

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Home-list prices are dropping in some of America's most popular cities.</li><li>Metros in Florida, Texas, and other states are seeing prices fall by as much as 12%, per Realtor.com.</li></ul>Home-list prices are tumbling in a handful of <keyword id="23582895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pandemic-boomtowns" source="keywords">pandemic boomtowns</keyword>, thanks to a buildup of inventory that's beginning to exceed the level of demand. <br /><br />Home-listprices have dropped as much as 12% in metros throughout the US, according to data from <a target="_blank" href="http://Realtor.com">Realtor.com</a>. That's a steeper decline compared to the rest of the country, with the national median <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realtor.com/research/september-2024-data/#:~:text=The%20national%20median%20list%20price,of%201.3%25%20to%204.1%25.">home-listprice falling just 1% year-over-year</a> in September, the <keyword id="19895040" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Real-estate" source="keywords">real estate</keyword> listings site said in a report.<br /><br /><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-home-prices-correction-housing-market-buying-a-house-2024-7">Demand in some pandemic boomtowns</a> has fallen over the past year, as states like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-housing-market-sales-weather-climate-change-retirement-pandemic-costs-2024-9">Florida</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">Texas</a> see issues like a rising cost of living, weather events, and tense political climates that have caused some residents to sour on the state.<br /><br />Here are the top 10 cities where home-listprices are falling the most, according to Realtor.com. <br /><br /><h2>1. Miami, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Miami skyline" height="1500" width="3000" msid="114157422" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $525,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -12.4%<br /><br /><h2>2. <strong>Cincinnati</strong>, Ohio</h2>  <div type="image" title="Cincinnati skyline" height="2970" width="5430" msid="114157415" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $337,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -9.5%<br /><br /><h2>3. San Francisco, California</h2>  <div type="image" title="San Francisco skyline" height="2962" width="5627" msid="114157432" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $997,500<br /><br />Change from last year: -8.9%<br /><br /><h2>4. Kansas City, Missouri</h2>  <div type="image" title="Kansas city" height="2600" width="5200" msid="114157412" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $389,500<br /><br />Change from last year: -8.4%<br /><br /><h2>5. Austin, Texas</h2>  <div type="image" title="Austin skyline" height="3630" width="5449" msid="114157434" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $520,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -6.6%<br /><br /><h2>6. Jacksonville, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Jacksonville skyline" height="2863" width="5725" msid="114157419" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $399,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -6.1%<br /><br /><h2>7. Denver, Colorado</h2>  <div type="image" title="Denver skyline" height="2250" width="4500" msid="114157417" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $610,250<br /><br />Change from last year: -6%<br /><br /><h2>8. Orlando, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Orlando skyline" height="2160" width="4320" msid="114157424" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $429,950<br /><br />Change from last year: -5.6%<br /><br /><h2>9. Tampa, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Tampa skyline" height="2565" width="5130" msid="114157428" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $414,948<br /><br />Change from last year: -5.5%<br /><br /><h2>10. Nashville, Tennessee</h2>  <div type="image" title="Nashville skyline" height="2559" width="5118" msid="114157429" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $547,865<br /><br />Change from last year: -5.4%<br /><br /><i>Editor’s note: October 12, 2024 </i><i>—</i><i> This story has been updated to clarify that the </i><a href="http://realtor.com/" target="_blank"><i>Realtor.com</i></a><i> data shows home-listing prices.</i><br />

Home-listing prices are down as much as 12% in boomtowns in Florida, Texas, and other popular states

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Housing shortages and affordability problems are especially acute in America's swing states.</li><li>Arizona's population is surging and Pennsylvania's is shrinking; neither can build enough homes.</li></ul><p>Rising home prices and rents are weighing on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rent-housing-affordability-swing-state-voters-apartments-presidential-race-redfin-2024-9">voters' minds</a> this election season.</p><p>Renters and homeowners in the handful of swing states that will likely determine the US presidential election — which include Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada — have been disproportionately hit by rising housing costs, caused by decades of underbuilding, a surge in new residents, high construction costs, and red tape.</p><p>Since 2017, "in 6 of the 7 states, home prices have risen faster than the national average, and the national average is already quite high," Alex Horowitz, director of Pew's Housing Policy Project, told Business Insider, citing data from Zillow and Apartment List. "In all 7 states, rent growth has been higher than the national average."</p><p>Two swing states — Arizona and Pennsylvania — exemplify in their own ways how housing markets across the country have failed to address the key issue they face: too few homes.</p><p>In Arizona, sprawling subdivisions can only sprawl so far, and years of population growth have outstripped supply. While Pennsylvania's population shrank in recent years, it's still struggling to dig itself out of a construction worker shortage after years of underbuilding.</p><h2 id="1a859852-557b-4304-892a-c09040f80a6d"><strong>Zoning restricts housing for Arizona's population boom</strong></h2><p>For years, Arizona has been among the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newsweek.com/population-map-reveals-fastest-growing-us-states-this-century-1904724">fastest-growing</a> states in the country. Sprawling subdivisions helped accommodate the growing population and were enough to keep housing costs relatively low through the early 2010s.</p><p>The pandemic supercharged pressure on the housing market. Since 2020, Arizona has welcomed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/AZ/PST045223">hundreds of thousands of new residents</a>. As demand spiked, snarled supply chains helped inflate construction costs. Since January 2020, home prices in Arizona have risen by 55%, compared to a national average of 45%, while rents have jumped 27%, compared to a national average of 22%, Horowitz said.</p><div type="image" title="A worker operates machinery during construction at a housing development in the Phoenix suburbs of Queen Creek, one of the fastest-growing communities in Arizona." height="832" width="1280" msid="114584579" hostid="261" sizebytes="114024"></div><p>Housing experts blame some of Arizona's home shortage on the restrictive zoning laws in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/sites/default/files/exclusionary_zoning_legal_barrier_to_affordable_housing.pdf">many of its cities and suburbs</a>, which tend to allow only large-lot, detached single-family homes. These homes are generally more expensive than denser housing and require far more land.</p><p>"The obvious land that's proximate to job centers is scarcer and scarcer after we've had 20 or 30 years of significant home building" in Arizona, Ben Metcalf, managing director of the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley, told Business Insider.</p><p>At the same time, the state is running out of water to support its new homes and residents. State officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/climate/arizona-phoenix-permits-housing-water.html">announced</a> last year that Arizona doesn't have enough groundwater to support all the future homes that have been approved for building in the Phoenix area.</p><h2 id="807b5340-f3a6-4d5d-a378-25a3d54b550f">Pennsylvania is up against construction worker shortages amid a shrinking population</h2><p>Two thousand miles away, in Pennsylvania, voters are also facing a housing shortage. Home prices have risen 39% since January 2020, Horowitz noted, even though the state's population is shrinking. Pennsylvania has lost <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pennlive.com/news/2024/03/amid-pockets-of-growth-pennsylvania-population-declines-worsen.html">an estimated 41,000 people</a> since 2020.</p><p>Like many other states, Pennsylvania has underbuilt housing since the 2008 financial crisis, which tanked the housing market. In recent years, it's struggled with issues that plague the rest of the country, including elevated building material costs and high interest rates that make capital more expensive.</p><p>But it's also dealing with a particularly severe construction worker shortage. Bureau of Labor Statistics data <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PACONS">shows</a> that after growing steadily during the 2010s, the total number of construction employees in Pennsylvania has plateaued since bouncing back after the pandemic recession, while construction jobs continue to boom in the nation as a whole.</p><p>Horowitz noted that Pennsylvania ranked 48th out of the 50 states for homes permitted from 2017 to 2023.</p><p>"The aging workforce is a very big problem in residential construction in a place like Pennsylvania," Metcalf said, adding that restrictive federal immigration policies have limited the construction workforce, which is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://qz.com/immigrants-make-up-more-of-the-us-construction-labor-fo-1851118320">disproportionately made up of immigrants</a>.</p><p>Horowitz noted that, like in Arizona, restrictive zoning policies are also preventing the construction of denser, cheaper housing in the state's suburban and exurban communities.</p><p>Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro directed his administration in September to develop a statewide housing action plan. "While Governor Shapiro has made real progress in his first two years, he knows more needs to be done to fix the housing shortage and cut costs for Pennsylvanians," the administration spokesperson said.</p><h2 id="34ab4d96-8ac9-4d17-ba48-b2df8f02ca74">Housing policy on the campaign trail</h2><p id="34ab4d96-8ac9-4d17-ba48-b2df8f02ca74">Swing-state voters list <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/">the economy</a> as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-harris-swing-state-poll-october-2024-c3ca9414">their top issue</a> in this election. But "when you drill down, it is about affording to live and pay their rent and pay their mortgages," Tucson Mayor Regina Romero told Business Insider. "Affordable opportunities help families stop worrying about where they're going to live next or sleep next and start worrying about how they can thrive in our economy."</p><p>Housing affordability has become such an acute problem that Vice President Kamala Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">has promised to</a> build 3 million new homes over her first term, send $25,000 in downpayment assistance to first-time homebuyers, and spend billions on housing innovation.</p><p id="34ab4d96-8ac9-4d17-ba48-b2df8f02ca74">Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-housing-crisis-policy-rising-home-prices-apartment-rents-2024-6">has said</a> he'll bring housing costs down by cutting interest rates — though the Federal Reserve, which controls rates, operates independently of the government. He's also promised to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">deport millions of immigrants</a> to free up housing and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-freedom-cities-build-housing-conservatives-scoff-at-leftist-plan-2023-3">open up federal land</a> for home construction.</p><p>To be sure, not all Americans are being adversely impacted by rising rents and home prices. Many homeowners who locked in relatively low mortgage rates years ago have watched their home equity soar as prices have skyrocketed.</p><p>Renters are almost twice as likely as homeowners to say that housing affordability is a top-three issue in deciding who to vote for in this election, a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/renters-vs-homeowners-housing-affordability-election/">Redfin survey found</a>. Almost a quarter of potential first-time homebuyers say they're waiting until after the election to buy a home, with many interested in Harris' downpayment support, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuying-delay-election-survey-2024/">Redfin also reported</a>.</p><p><em>Noah Sheidlower contributed reporting.</em></p>

2 swing states show why the US is struggling to build enough houses

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump wanted Republicans to threaten a government shutdown just weeks before the election.</li><li>He pressed them to force the passage of a bill to require proof of citizenship to register to vote.</li></ul><p>House Speaker Mike Johnson is teeing up a vote this week on a bill to fund the government for the next few months.</p><p>The so-called "continuing resolution," which will fund the government at current levels through December 20, also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rules.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/rules.house.gov/files/documents/cr1fy25_xml-final-for-introduction_0.pdf">includes</a> an additional $231 million for the Secret Service in the wake of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shots-fired-florida-golf-course-2024-9">two recent attempts to assassinate</a> former President Donald Trump.</p><p>Yet Johnson, and any other Republican who votes for this bill, will be quietly defying Trump's wishes just weeks before the 2024 election.</p><h2 id="61102b88-9a2d-4783-bb7a-50da0658f290">Trump wanted Republicans to threaten a shutdown</h2><p>Government funding is set to expire on September 30, and lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been working to come to an agreement on how to keep the lights on.</p><p>In a bid to appease his party's right flank, Johnson first tried to pass a bill that would have funded the government through March and included legislation known as the "SAVE Act," which would require people to produce proof of citizenship when they register to vote in federal elections.</p><p>Democrats almost unanimously oppose that bill, and there's no evidence of widespread non-citizen voting in federal elections. But the measure was seen as enticing for hardline conservatives, who typically don't support short-term funding bills.</p><p>Last Wednesday, Trump entered the fray, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113160048992786010">writing on Truth Social</a> that Republicans "should not agree to a Continuing Resolution in any way, shape, or form" if doesn't include the SAVE Act.</p><p>In essence, Trump asked Republicans to threaten a government shutdown over the provision. Yet when the continuing resolution <em>with</em> the SAVE Act came up for a vote last week, it failed, with 14 Republicans voting against it.</p><p>So on Sunday, Johnson pivoted, writing in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1837960553391616233">letter to colleagues</a> that "an alternative plan is now required."</p><h2 id="ab872e6e-cfa1-4ab4-86ea-f5567e76f923">Many Republicans simply don't want to have this fight right now</h2><p>Despite Trump's push, Republicans on Capitol Hill understand that actually following his lead would be reckless.</p><p>As Johnson wrote in his letter, "shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice."</p><p>Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made a similar point last week, telling reporters it would be "politically, beyond stupid" to shut down the government and that "certainly" Republicans would be blamed.</p><p>It's also the latest example of how Trump, despite having a firm grip over the party as a whole, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wont-pick-mcconnells-successor-recall-jim-jordans-speaker-bid-2024-2">isn't always the most influential voice</a> among Republicans on Capitol Hill.</p><p>It's certainly possible that most Republicans will vote against Johnson's new government funding bill. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-democrats-republicans-vote-government-shutdown-debt-ceilling-fourth-time-2024-1">happened several times</a> since Republicans took control of the House in 2023.</p><p>But the chances of a shutdown before the election are now essentially zero.</p><p>The bill is expected to pass the House this week, after which it will easily pass the Senate (though some Republicans may drag out the process) and head to President Joe Biden's desk for his signature.</p>

Republicans are defying Trump's demand to force a government shutdown before the election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has pledged to lead a mass deportation campaign once elected.</li><li>That would create a major labor crunch for homebuilders, driving wages and costs higher.</li></ul><p>Donald Trump's vow to crack down on immigration doesn't bode well for priced-out homebuyers.</p><p>The Republican presidential candidate has promised to lead the largest deportation campaign in US history if reelected. By one estimate, that could involve deporting up to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">1.2 million</a> people, though as many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trump-vs-harris-immigration-future-policy-proposals#_ftn1">11 million undocumented residents</a> live in the country.</p><p>While there's room to debate the plan's feasibility, what's certain is that a sudden drain of the immigrant workforce could significantly hinder construction in the US, igniting deeper unaffordability for home market buyers.</p><h3 id="a76ec574-ba23-4a94-92de-608c0047e53f"><strong>A critical homebuilder workforce</strong></h3><p>"If we did see mass deportations, I do think it would have a chilling effect on the labor market," Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, told Business Insider.</p><p>He said immigrants are a critical component of the industry, as they help relieve a serious shortage of skilled labor. Foreign-born construction workers, who make up as much as a third of the sector's labor force, are often concentrated in specific trades required to build a home, such as plasterers and drywall installers, the Home Builders Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://hbi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Spring-2024-CLMR-HBI-NAHB-FINAL.pdf">reported</a>.</p><p>"We consistently see government data showing that we are anywhere between 200,000 to 400,000 workers short in our industry and that lack of skilled labor slows down the pace of construction, drives up labor costs, and ultimately leads to higher home prices, and a slower pace of home building," Tobin said.</p><p>A <a target="_blank" href="https://gwbushcenter.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/Immigrants-and-Opp-3.pdf">2022 George W. Bush Institute</a> study found that US metros with the highest immigrant population growth scored the lowest construction costs.</p><p>Without the supply of these workers, history suggests housing costs are likely to rise.</p><p>According to a <a target="_blank" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4729511">research paper</a> released earlier this year, home prices were found to rise in counties impacted by an immigration crackdown that spanned from late 2008 to 2014. The US "Secure Communities" program led to the deportation of over 300,000 undocumented immigrants in that time period, it cited.</p><p>Given the pace of homebuilding, price effects were muted for two years after enforcement began, the study said. However, three years later, the average new construction property became 17% more expensive among tracked counties compared to the baseline.</p><p>That translates to a $57,300 jump compared to the average property price before the program's implementation.</p><p>"Three years after SC rollout, the average county has foregone the equivalent of an entire year's worth of additional residential construction: 2,423 fewer buildings are permitted, and 1,997 fewer newly constructed homes enter the market," the authors wrote.</p><p>Considering how wide-sweeping the Trump campaign's deportation effort could be, experts told BI that homebuilders would likely resort to wage hikes to attract domestic workers. These could be significant, given that the construction industry would be competing against other immigrant-dependent sectors.</p><p>According to Tobin, mass deportation would also require the industry to redouble its efforts in attracting new domestic interest in the trades. </p><p>"Whether that's kids coming out of out of high school, or adults that are looking for a new career, transitioning military that are coming out of the service. We would have to look at previously incarcerated."</p><h3 id="2780f5cd-9b64-4a83-a2ce-4c3dee812acf"><strong>What about demand?</strong></h3><p>Trump's campaign has implied that cracking down on immigration will help ease housing unaffordability by effectively removing one source of demand. It's a talking point recently made by Vice President candidate JD Vance, who blamed "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jd-vance-debate-immigration-housing-prices-real-estate-federal-reserve/">millions of undocumented immigrants</a>" for adding pressure on a supply-constrained housing market.</p><p>While research has suggested immigrant demand plays a role in influencing prices, economists generally doubt that this is a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">major driver</a>. </p><p>Rents and home prices started surging in 2020 and 2021, at a time when net immigration inflows were close to the two-decade average, as tracked by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60569#:~:text=Over%20the%202021%E2%80%932026%20period%2C%20the%20net%20immigration%20of%20people,net%20immigration%20of%20that%20population">Congressional Budget Office</a>.</p><p>Meanwhile, Trump's platform is also pushing another policy initiative that's unlikely to help housing costs: tariffs. </p><p>The candidate has pledged to raise duties on virtually all imports to the US, raising them as much as 60% on Chinese imports.</p><p>"If you're going to add tariffs onto building materials, that cost is just going to be passed along to the homeowner or the renter," Tobin said, citing that there's a lack of evidence that tariffs will meaningfully increase production in the US. He pointed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nahb.org/blog/2024/08/canadian-lumber-tariffs">a 15% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber</a> that has failed to do this.</p>

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