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<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><p class="source">AP</p></div></div>Wall Street's chart gurus have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/6th-hindenburg-omen-2013-8">spotted the ominous "Hindenburg Omen"</a> in the stock market today.</p>
<p>Today's sighting is the sixth one in just eight days, and that's pretty significant for folks who believe history repeats itself.</p>
<p>Last week, SentimenTrader's Jason Goepfert discussed the clustering of Hindenburg Omens. Here's an <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-on-the-hindenburg-omens-2013-8">excerpt via UBS's Art Cashin</a> (It's still relevant today):</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">With the latest market rally, the Omens are flaring up again.  <strong>There have been 5 Omens triggered out of the past 8 trading sessions</strong> (your data may vary - we're using the same sources we've always used for historical data).  That's actually the closest-grouped cluster since early November 2007.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong>It's extremely rare to see as many Omens occurring together as we've seen over the past 50 days.  The last time was prior to the bear market in 2007.  The time before that was prior to the bear market in 2000</strong>.</p>
<p>So, what exactly is the <keyword id="1810863" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Hindenburg-Omen">Hindenburg Omen</keyword>?</p>
<p>As Goepfert suggests, not everyone has the same definition.  But here's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen">Wikipedia's criteria</a>:</p>
<ol>
<li>The daily number of <span class="mw-redirect">NYSE</span> new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are <em>both</em> greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (this is typically about 84 stocks) of the sum of <span class="mw-redirect">NYSE</span> issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000). An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today's market).</li>
<li>The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week <span class="mw-redirect">moving average</span>, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.</li>
<li>The <span class="mw-redirect">McClellan Oscillator</span> is negative on the same day.</li>
<li>The number of New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the number of new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).</li>
</ol>
<p>Doomers will argue that this only supports their case for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/marc-faber-1987-style-crash-coming-2013-8">a major 1987-style sell-off</a>.</p>
<p>But Art Cashin warns that this obviously isn't a sure thing.</p>
<p>"The viewers should be alert to it, but they shouldn't be panicked," said <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&amp;video=3000190460">Cashin in an interview with CNBC</a> on Tuesday. "It is a signal that says they may have a serious sell-off not they must have a serious sell-off."</p>
<p>The Dow is down by around 65 points in early afternoon trading.</p>

When You Get This Many Hindenburg Omens, The Stock Market Supposed To Crash

<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><p class="source">AP</p></div></div>The S&amp;P 500 closed at an all-time high of 1,709 two Fridays ago, but has since <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/monday-scouting-report-august-12-2013-2013-8">struggled to break through 1,700 again</a>.</p>
<p>The chopping trading activity has repeatedly generated a pattern that stock market chartists call the <keyword id="1810863" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Hindenburg-Omen">Hindenburg Omen</keyword>.</p>
<p>And as you can tell, it's an ominous omen that portends market crashes.</p>
<p><keyword id="1738334" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Art-Cashin">Art Cashin</keyword>, UBS Financial Services' director of floor operations, writes about the recent omens in hist note this morning (emphasis added):</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Can an Omen Turn Ominous?  Look!  Up In The Sky – Is It A Bird; A Plane – No It's That Guy Hindenburg Again</span> – There have been multiple occurrences of the Hindenburg Omen in the last several weeks.  To assess lets turn to a dispassionate respected veteran – Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 60px;">Sometimes a topic in the market takes hold and it's hard to shake it off.  One of those is the technical "market crash" signal called the Hindenburg Omen.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 60px;">It has its boosters and its detractors, and we're not going to get caught up in debating its merits.  We've discussed it for 12 years, always with the same arguments.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 60px;">On June 10th, we outlined the market's historical performance after suffering at least 5 signals from the Hindenburg Omen within a two-week period.  Stocks were consistently weak afterward, and proved to be so again, at least for a while.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 60px;">With the latest market rally, the Omens are flaring up again.  <strong>There have been 5 Omens triggered out of the past 8 trading sessions</strong> (your data may vary - we're using the same sources we've always used for historical data).  That's actually the closest-grouped cluster since early November 2007.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 60px;"><strong>It's extremely rare to see as many Omens occurring together as we've seen over the past 50 days.  The last time was prior to the bear market in 2007.  The time before that was prior to the bear market in 2000</strong>.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Two precedents don'ts make a pattern, but that sure makes that "check engine" light glow much, much brighter.</p>
<p>U.S. markets open in a few minutes. Dow and S&amp;P futures are in the red.</p>

The Last Time We Witnessed This Many 'Hindenburg Omens' Was Before The Bear Market Began In 2007

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Paramount Pictures</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>Stock market dispersion is widening as technical indicators show sell signals, suggesting a turbulent road ahead for equities.</strong></li><li><strong>Investment manager John Hussman points out that these indicators haven't flashed sell simultaneously since the 2007 financial crisis.</strong></li></ul><p><br />All is not well beneath the surface of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/stock-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">stock market</a>.</p><p>Market dislocations are running rampant, suggesting turbulence ahead that could go well beyond the modest weakness major indexes have seen over the past two weeks. And to make matters worse, some of the market's most ominous technical indicators are flashing serious warning signals.</p><p><a href="https://www.hussmanfunds.com/">John Hussman</a>, <span>the president of the Hussman Investment Trust and a former economics professor, is particularly concerned about the growing dispersion of stock market returns. Dispersion reflects how widely market returns are distributed, and it's a</span><span>n important measure to watch in order to assess the crosscurrents that drive broader indexes.</span></p><p><span>On November 14, the number of New York Stock Exchange companies setting new 52-week lows climbed above the number hitting new highs, representing a "leadership reversal" that Hussman says highlights the deterioration of market internals. </span><span>To make matters even more dicey, stocks also received confirmation of two bearish market breadth readings, known as the "Hindenburg Omen" and "Titanic Syndrome."</span></p><p><span>According to Hussman, these three readings haven't occurred simultaneously since 2007, when the financial crisis was getting underway. And the previous instance before that was in 1999, right before the dotcom bubble crash. That's not very welcome company.</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs171114/">Hussman Funds</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Here are some more details around the Hindenburg and Titanic indicators referenced above:</p><ul><li><strong>Hindenburg Omen </strong>- A sell signal that occurs when NYSE new highs and new lows each exceed 2.8% of advances plus declines on the same day. Note that on November 14, they totaled more than 3%.</li><li><strong>Titanic Syndrome</strong> - A sell signal that is triggered when NYSE 52-week lows outnumber 52-week highs within seven days of an all-time high in equities. Stocks most recently hit a record on November 8.</li></ul><p>"While the names of these indicators may seem silly and overly menacing, they actually get at something very serious," Hussman said. "They capture situations where the major indices are near new highs, yet market internals show much greater divergence. In my view, this type of market behavior is indicative of a subtle shift in the preferences of investors, away from speculation and toward risk-aversion."</p><p><span></span>It must be noted, however, that Hussman has been sounding the alarm on a major stock market selloff for years now. In a recent blog post, he said that "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-market-bear-sees-decade-of-stock-losses-wall-street-mad-2017-11">Wall Street has gone completely mad</a>" as investors continue to buy with stocks at stretched valuations, and called for negative equity returns over the next 10 years.</p><p>Throughout the second half of 2014, he issued regular warnings about a crash, even going as far as to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hussman-the-stock-market-is-crashing-2014-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">say stocks were crashing in October 2014</a>. The S&amp;P 500 has rallied another 30% since then.</p><p>Hussman's view also stands in stark contrast to many experts across Wall Street - most notably the equity strategists responsible for each firm's S&amp;P 500 forecasts. They forecast that the benchmark will be little changed from current levels into year-end, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p>Looking ahead to 2018, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-market-news-ubs-2-biggest-fears-overblown-2017-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">UBS sees the S&amp;P 500 climbing as much as 9%</a> over the course of the year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs thinks US stocks will be kept afloat by speculation and progress around tax reform.</p><p>With all of these varying opinions floating around, it's easy for investors to get confused. At this point, its seems like the best approach is for even the most bullish investors to proceed with caution.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-x-1-trillion-company-2017-11">How the iPhone X could make Apple a $1 trillion company</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

THE HINDENBURG MEETS THE TITANIC: Stocks are flashing an ominous signal not seen since the financial crisis

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP</span></p><p class="caption">Dumping a small flood of water from its interior the Hindenburg is pictured as it began maneuvers to be moored to the U.S. Navy mobile mooring mast on its arrival from Germany in Lakehurst, N.J., on May 9, 1936.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Markets have made a number of rare moves since the US presidential election last week. </p><p>The Dow rose to new highs for four straight days, and Treasurys surged to 2016 highs, for example.</p><p>And on Monday, more than 300 issues on the New York Stock Exchange advanced to new 52-week highs, and more than the same number of issues fell to new lows. It happened for the first time ever, according to Ryan Detrick, a senior market strategist at LPL Financial. </p><p>This is part of what technical analysts call the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-hindenburg-omen-has-appeared-2013-5">Hindenburg Omen</a>. The idea is that the number of stocks setting new 52-week highs should normally outnumber those setting new lows (and vice versa,) reflecting some uniformity and clarity of direction. However, a wide dispersion between new highs and lows is not seen as a good market indicator.</p><p>The high number of stocks making new highs and lows at the same time showed that "this is a confused market," Detrick wrote in a <a href="https://lplresearch.com/2016/11/16/are-equities-riding-on-the-hindenburg/">blog post</a> Wednesday.</p><p>What it does not signal, however, is the potential crash of a normal Hindenburg signal. </p><p>That's because, Detrick said, the sudden bond market sell-off last week hit other assets that were linked to fixed income. "Looking at common stocks only shows a much different backdrop, as on Monday common stocks made 319 new highs, with only 21 new lows," he said. </p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-seth-meyers-roast-trump-2011-presidential-election-2016-11">It's surreal to watch this 2011 video of Obama and Seth Meyers taunting Trump about a presidential run</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="5xd2E3MzE6JUUQuvxmVNa8gGTMkzm87v" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Something happened to stocks for the first time ever on Monday

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Mahmoud Raouf Mahmoud </span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>US stocks slipped for a second straight day as weakness in commodities dragged raw-material producers lower.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the more tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index all fell around 0.6%.</p><p>First up, the scoreboard:</p><ul><li><strong>Dow:</strong> 23,269.18, -140.29, (-0.60%)</li><li><strong>S&amp;P 500:</strong> 2,563.95, -15.05, (-0.58%)</li><li><strong>Nasdaq:</strong> 6,699.29, -38.98, (-0.58%)</li><li><strong>US 10-year yield:</strong> 2.34%, -0.05</li><li><strong>WTI crude oil:</strong> $55.28, -0.42, -0.75%</li></ul><p>1. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-hindenburg-titanic-signals-first-time-since-financial-crisis-2017-11">Stocks are flashing an ominous signal not seen since the financial crisis</a>. Investment manager John Hussman points out that stock market dispersion is widening, while two technical indicators known as the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome flashed sell.</p><p>2. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-gop-tax-plan-biggest-us-investment-firms-have-major-problem-2017-11">America's investing giants have a major problem with the GOP tax plan</a>. A little-publicized provision of the bill would force clients of investment management firms to sell their oldest shares first when cashing out of positions.</p><p>3. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-stock-warren-buffett-2017-11">Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway loads up on Apple</a>. The firm raised its stake in Apple by 3%, to 134 million outstanding shares in the third quarter.</p><p>4. <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amazon-netflix-facebook-stock-buys-tiger-global-2017-11-1008045515">A $20 billion investment firm is betting big on Wall Street's hottest tech stocks</a>. Billionaire Chase Coleman's Tiger Global Management has increased its bets on Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba, and Alphabet.</p><p>5. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-odds-in-december-are-underrated-2017-11">People are underrating the odds of a government shutdown in December</a>. Business Insider's Josh Barro says that while President Donald Trump and congressional leaders prevented one fairly easily in September, it will be different in December.</p><p><strong>ADDITIONALLY:</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-will-bring-volatility-to-markets-2017-11">China is about to take the entire global economy for a wild ride</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-state-import-export-international-trade-partner-map-2017-11">Every US state's most important international trading partners</a></p><p><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sendgrid-ceo-interview-what-it-takes-to-go-public-2017-11-1008180449">The CEO of a $740 million email company that just IPOed explains what it takes to go public</a></p><p><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nike-adidas-stock-price-are-trying-opposite-strategies-to-take-over-the-us-market-2017-11-1008176312">Nike and Adidas are trying opposite strategies to dominate the US</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-rolling-stone-profile-reveals-his-embrace-of-design-2017-11">An anecdote about Elon Musk and Tesla's big-rig reveals why people are obsessed with his company</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-calls-investors-who-bet-against-teslas-stocks-jerks-who-want-us-to-die-2017-11">Elon Musk calls investors who bet against Tesla's stocks 'jerks who want us to die'</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/steven-mnuchin-dollar-bills-with-his-signature-internet-reacts-2017-11">Steven Mnuchin just showed off the first dollar bills with his signature - and the internet is having a field day</a></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-low-cash-levels-bearish-2017-11">Investors are running out of money - and that's bad news for stocks</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

STOCKS TAKE A DIVE: Here's what you need to know

<p>If you haven't been paying attention, the <keyword id="6357440" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="stock-market">stock market</keyword> is on a roll.</p>
<p>The Dow is up triple digits every day this week, and basically the entire market has been on a tear since the beginning of September.</p>
<p>Here's a chart of S&amp;P futures. You can see the market begin to take the escalator right at the beginning of the month.</p>
<p><div class="image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source on-image">FinViz</p></div></div></div></p>
<p>There was so much hype and concern about September (Taper! The budget! Syria!) And well none of that has gone away. But once again, the Hindenburg Omen spotters have been proven wrong, as stocks near their old highs.</p>

You Have To Be Impressed By This Stock Market

<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><p class="source">REUTERS/Dean Treml</p></div></div>We saw a decent sized sell-off despite a limited amount of news.</p>
<p>First, the scoreboard:</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Dow: </span><span class="l84" style="line-height: 1.5em;" id="yfs_l84_dji">15,339.0, -111.3,</span><span class="c63" style="line-height: 1.5em;" id="yfs_c63_dji"><span class="yfi-price-change-green"> -0.7</span></span><span class="pp0" style="line-height: 1.5em;" id="yfs_pp0_dji">%</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">S&amp;P 500: 1,686.2, -7.8, -0.4%</span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">NASDAQ: 3,671.1, -13.3, -0.3%</span></li>
</ul>
<p>And now, the top stories:</p>
<ul>
<li>Stocks had another down day, and that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-august-2-2013-2013-8">all-time high of S&amp;P 1,709 earlier this month</a> is getting farther and farther away.</li>
<li>For what it's worth, a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/6th-hindenburg-omen-2013-8">"Hindenburg Omen" was spotted</a> in the stock market today. This technical indicator consists of a combination of market patterns that supposedly precede sell-offs. Currently, we've seen six such omens in eight trading sessions. "It's extremely rare to see as many Omens occurring together as we've seen over the past 50 days," said SentimenTrader's Jason Goepfert. "The last time was prior to the bear market in 2007.  The time before that was prior to the bear market in 2000<strong>.</strong>" Here's UBS's <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&amp;video=3000190460">Art Cashin</a> on the omen: "The viewers should be alert to it, but they shouldn't be panicked. It is a signal that says they may have a serious sell-off not they must have a serious sell-off."</li>
<li>Earlier today, we learned that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/july-producer-prices-2013-8">producer prices were unchanged in July</a>, largely due to falling gas and electricity prices.  Economists were looking for an increase of 0.3%.</li>
<li>"We doubt that July’s soft producer prices figures will force the Fed to conclude that the recent downward trend in core price pressures is more than temporary," said Capital Economics Paul Dales.</li>
<li>The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-fed-q2-2013-household-debt-2013-8">Q2 Quarterly Report On Household Debt And Credit</a>. "In Q2 2013 total household indebtedness fell to $11.15 trillion; 0.7% lower than the previous quarter and 12 percent below the peak of $12.68 trillion in Q3 2008," said the NY Fed in a press release. "Mortgages, the largest component of household debt, fell $91 billion from the first quarter... Total auto loan balances increased $20 billion from the previous quarter, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase and the largest quarter over quarter increase since 2006."</li>
<li><strong>Don't Miss:</strong> <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-funds-bullish-gold-charts-2013-8"><strong>46 Charts That Every Gold Bull Will Love »</strong></a></li>
</ul>

MARKETS FALL: Here's What You Need To Know

<div style="width: 100%; overflow: hidden;">
<h2 style="text-align: left;"><keyword id="1740547" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Monday-Scouting-Report">MONDAY SCOUTING REPORT</keyword></h2>
<br /> <span style="color: #000000; text-decoration: none; font-size: 13px; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><em>This post is part of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report">"Monday Scouting Report"</a> series, a weekly look at the stories and issues that most affect mid-market businesses. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report">"Monday Scouting Report"</a> is sponsored by GE Capital.</em></span></div>
<div style="width: 100%; overflow: hidden;"><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report"><span style="color: #000000; text-decoration: none; font-size: 13px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><em>See more Monday Scouting Reports &gt;&gt;</em></span></a></strong></div><p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><p class="source"><a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%9D%D1%96%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%81%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82%D0%BB%D0%BE.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></p><p class="caption">"Sviati Hory" (Holy Mountains), Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine.</p></div></div>The stock market ended last week <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-august-9-2013-2013-8">slightly off</a> of its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-august-2-2013-2013-8">all-time high</a>.</p>
<p>This week comes with a broad array of economic data that'll give us a better sense of where the U.S. and world economies stand today.</p>
<p>From <a href="http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/08/new-week-same-drivers.html">Brown Brothers' Marc Chandler</a>: "We continue to identify four main macro issues shaping the investment climate: The tapering anticipation in the US; the stabilization of the Chinese economy; a cyclical recovery in Europe; and the long awaited Japanese purchases of foreign bonds"</p>
<p><strong>Top Stories</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The World Versus 1,700</span>: "At the start of the year, Wall Street's so-called "1700 Club," didn't have a single member," said <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/08/07/rising-stock-market-creates-1700-club/2612831/">Adam Shell in a popular USA Today feature last Thursday</a>. "Today, seven top stock strategists have joined the club, whose membership requirements include being bullish on stocks and owning a 2013 year-end price target of 1700-plus for the benchmark index."<br /><br />"With many traders at the beach, Wall Street's remaining bulls and bears will be skirmishing around the 1700 level on the S&amp;P 500," said <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100953060">CNBC's Patti Domm on Friday</a>.<br /><br />Unfavorable technical indicators aren't helping to alleviate tensions at 1,700. "For the 4th day this week new highs, new lows, advancers and decliners flashed an angst-prone market and <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-09/fourth-hindenburg-five-days-closes-dow-near-worst-week-year">triggered a Hindenburg Omen</a>," noted Zero Hedge on Friday.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">More On The Rise Of The West</span>: "I wouldn’t want to get overly carried away or be dismissive of the remaining cyclical and structural challenges out there, but recent data have definitely taken a turn for the better in the UK and euro area and, of course, it has been that way in Japan and the US for a while now," acknowledged <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-oneill-forces-behind-the-sudden-western-recovery-2013-8">economist Jim O'Neill in a piece for The Telegraph</a>.<br /><br />O'Neill warns not to get too carried away with optimism.  "In the US, underlying fiscal challenges remain. The challenge posed by a lessening of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing through an early tapering – never mind the day when the Fed starts raising interest rates – will be significant."</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Economic Calendar</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Treasury Budget (Monday)</span>: Economists estimate a budget deficit of $96.0 billion in July, versus a $116.5 billion surplus in June. "Growth in outlays mostly reflects a calendar shift that moved some substantial early July payments for Medicare and other programs into June last year," said Morgan Stanley's Ted Wieseman. "On an underlying basis, spending remained well contained, with defense likely to be down significantly as sequester cuts continued. On the revenue side, withheld income and payroll taxes gained an estimated 15%, boosted substantially by higher payroll and income tax rates this year but also showing underlying improvement."</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Retail Sales (Tuesday)</span>: Economists estimate retail sales climbed 0.3% in July and 0.4% excluding autos and gas. "The best retail sales report in five months should be due to a pick-up in core sales, as autos should be down a little and gasoline should be up a little," said Credit Suisse's Neal Soss. "Behind our core expectation are good chain store results, a surge in the ISM Non-Manufacturing index and hotter/drier weather. Watch for a big rebound in food (grocery stores and restaurants – more so the latter) after weakness last month."</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Producer Price Index (Wednesday)</span>: Economists estimate PPI climbed 0.3% and 0.2% excluding food and energy prices.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Consumer Price Index (Thursday)</span>: Economists estimate CPI and core-CPI both climbed 0.2%.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Jobless Claims (Thursday)</span>: Economists estimate that claims will slip to 330,000 from 333,000 last week. "The lack of an uptrend in claims implies that the modest weakening in payrolls in July was due to normal volatility," said High Frequency Economics' Jim O'Sullivan. "If anything, claims are signaling acceleration in employment growth, not deceleration."</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Industrial Production (Thursday)</span>: Economists estimate industrial production climbed by 0.3% in July. "Our expectation is that industrial production rose 0.2 percent in July, reflecting the stronger gains in the ISM manufacturing and Chicago PMI data for the month," said Wells Fargo's John Silvia. "In the months ahead, industrial production should continue to slowly edge higher through the end of the year as demand from both consumers and businesses help to boost output growth."</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Philadelphia Fed Survey (Thursday)</span>: Economists estimate the index to fall to 15.0 in August. "We expect some moderation of manufacturing activity in the Philly Fed district in August," said Bank of America Merrill Lynch's economics team. "In July’s report, the Philly Fed index hit 19.8 – the highest level since March 2011. We expect the pace of activity to slow, but still remain brisk, with the index falling to 13.0."</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing Market Index (Thursday)</span>: Economists estimate the homebuilder sentiment index fell to 56 in August from 57 in July. "After a nearly unprecedented surge in builders’ sentiment over the last two months, which occurred in spite of a 100 basis point-plus rise in interest rates, the NAHB index is bound to retrace some of its recent improvement," said Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna.</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing Starts (Friday)</span>: Economists estimate the pace of housing starts climbed to 900,000 in July. "We expect starts to rebound 7% in July, reversing most of the surprising 10% plunge posted in June, driven by a rebound in apartment construction and a renewed move higher in single-family homebuilding," said Morgan Stanley's Wieseman. "A 26% drop in the volatile multi-family category accounted for most of the June weakness, but multi-family starts have been running well below permits the past few months and are due for a rebound."</li>
<li><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Consumer Sentiment (Friday)</span>: Economists believe the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence climbed to 85.5 in August. "August consumer sentiment should reach a fresh six-year high," said Credit Suisse's Soss. "Recent news flow, especially on the jobs picture, should be a tailwind. The unemployment rate hit a new low for the recovery. Household wealth continues to be underpinned by higher stock prices and higher home values. Lower gasoline prices should support lower income  households’ confidence. And stabilization in the backup in interest rates should calm fears for upper income households, after this development was a headwind to this cohort last month."</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Market Commentary</strong></p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 is struggling to pass 1,700 and stay above it.</p>
<p>"I think the market is sort of digesting," said <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100953060">Laszlo Birinyi, who has a 1,740 year-end target</a> on the S&amp;P 500. "It's had a big move, and so it's digesting it. "</p>
<p>For now, most of Wall Street seems pretty convinced the S&amp;P will go above and beyond.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tom-lee-retail-investors-are-spectating-2013-8">JP Morgan's Tom Lee, who sees the S&amp;P 500 heading to 1,775</a>, shared an interesting anecdote in a note to clients on Friday."[A]<span>t a large group lunch earlier this week with 80 or so wealth advisors, we heard how most individual investors are spectators in the equity markets, having a greater share of their assets in bonds, particularly munis – <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tom-lee-retail-investors-are-spectating-2013-8">apparently, stocks are for “other people”</a> (who want to take the risk)," he said. </span></p>
<p><span>"<span style="line-height: 1.5em;">In our view, sentiment tends to have contrarian implications – that is, if investors are generally (anecdotally) cautious, this suggests that a lot of the negatives are already reflected in current prices. </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Consequently, as much as investors are concerned about a potential pullback (which we acknowledge is possible), the current caution suggests better implied risk/reward."</span></span></p>
<p>Matthew Cheslock, a trader with Virtu Financial, gave us a brief rundown of what to watch for. Watch  here:</p>
<p>

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