<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/51f697efecad04744e000010-559-419/greg-mankiw-3.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="greg mankiw" width="480" /><p class="source"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAfhExPndO0">YouTube/WHFreemanWorth</a></p><p class="caption"><keyword id="1739375" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Greg-Mankiw">Greg Mankiw</keyword></p></div></div>Harvard economist and former George W. Bush advisor Greg Mankiw has <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/28/business/budging-just-a-little-on-investing-in-gold.html?_r=1&amp;">a new piece in the New York Times</a> grappling with whether a smart investor should hold some <keyword id="18712" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Gold">gold</keyword>.</p>
<p>Mankiw calls himself a "boring" investor <span>— your standard 60% stocks 40% bonds kind of guy <span>— who never really saw the value in hoarding gold.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>But when a friend asked him if he should add gold his portfolio, Mankiw dove into the academic research. He came away with four main points:</span></span></p>
<ol>
<li><strong>There just isn't a lot of gold</strong> (less than one ounce a person if we divided it equally among the global population). And most of it is unavailable to a private investor, as half of gold is in the form of jewelry and another large chunk rests in central bank vaults.</li>
<li><strong>It has a small real return. "</strong>Over the long run, gold’s price has outpaced overall prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index — but not by much," Mankiw writes.</li>
<li><strong>Gold has a highly volatile price. </strong>"<span>Because gold is a small asset class with meager returns and high volatility, an investor may be tempted to avoid it altogether," according to Mankiw.</span></li>
<li><strong>Gold's unique identity makes it somewhat attractive for investors. </strong>Gold does not correlate with stocks or bonds. "<span>Despite gold’s volatility, adding a little to a standard portfolio can reduce its overall risk," Mankiw writes.</span></li>
</ol>
<div><span style="line-height: 22.5px;">So how much gold does the Harvard economist think you should have in your portfolio?</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>"A small sliver, such as the 2 percent weight in the world market portfolio, now makes sense to me as part of a long-term investment strategy," he concludes.</div>
<div><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/28/business/budging-just-a-little-on-investing-in-gold.html?_r=1&amp;">Read the full report at the New York Times&gt;</a></div>

MANKIW: It Makes Sense To Me To Own Some Of Gold In An Investment Portfolio

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/51bf1506ecad046573000019-559-419/greg-mankiw-2.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="greg mankiw" width="480" /><p class="source"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAfhExPndO0">YouTube/WHFreemanWorth</a></p><p class="caption"><keyword id="1739375" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Greg-Mankiw">Greg Mankiw</keyword></p></div><p></p></div>Greg Mankiw, the former economic adviser to <keyword id="156887" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Mitt-Romney">Mitt Romney</keyword>, is <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/defending_the_one_percent.pdf" target="_blank">out with a new paper</a> that aims to "defend the 1 percent" and the status quo of income equality in the United States. </p>
<p>In the 23-page paper, Mankiw attempts to tackle the question of whether more redistribution is needed to spread income gains more equally. </p>
<p>Specifically at the start of his paper, Mankiw addresses stats that have shown the enormous growth in income shares for the top 1 percent (from 7.7 percent in 1973 to 17.4 percent in 2010) and the top 0.01 percent (<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">0.5 percent </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">in 1973 to 3.3 percent in 2010). These numbers, in no small part, precipitated movements like Occupy Wall Street, Mankiw writes.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">In one of his key points, Mankiw brushes back on the common suggestion that CEO pay his risen astronomically in comparison to the average worker because boards of directors are too cozy with CEOs:</span></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"></span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Take the example of pay for chief executive officers. Without doubt, CEOs are paid handsomely, and their pay has </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">grown over time relative to that of the average worker. Commentators on this phenomenon </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">sometimes suggest that this high pay reflects the failure of corporate boards of directors to do their job. Rather than representing shareholders, the argument goes, boards are too cozy with the CEOs and pay them more than they are worth to </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">their organizations. </span></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Yet this argument fails to explain the behavior of closely-held corporations. A private </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">equity group with a controlling interest in a firm does not face the alleged principal-agent problem between shareholders and </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">boards, and yet these closely-held firms also pay their CEOs handsomely. Indeed, Kaplan (2012) </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">reports that over the past three decades, executive pay in closely-held firms has outpaced that in </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">public companies. Conqvist and Fahlenbrach (2012) find that when public companies go private, </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">the CEOs tend to get paid more rather than less in both base salaries and bonuses. In light of </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">these facts, the most natural explanation of high CEO pay is that the value of a good CEO is </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">extraordinarily high (a conclusion that, incidentally, is consistent with the model of CEO pay </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">proposed by Gabaix and Landier, 2008).</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Mankiw also attempts to tackle the suggestion that the rich should pay more in taxes because they benefit disproportionately from government services and infrastructure. In this section of his paper, Mankiw addresses President Barack Obama's now-infamous "you didn't build that" campaign line from 2012, which suggested that the rich achieved their wealth in large part due to benefits from good and services the government provides. </p>
<p>But Mankiw writes that the "average person" in the top 1 percent pays more than 25 percent of all federal income taxes, and he argues that this is fair compensation.</p>
<p>"In the end, the left's arguments for increased redistribution are valid in principle but dubious in practice," Mankiw writes.</p>
<p>"If the current tax system were regressive, or if the incomes of the top 1  percent were much greater than their economic contributions, or if the rich enjoyed government  services in excess of what they pay in taxes, then the case for increasing the top tax rate would  indeed be strong. But there is no compelling reason to believe that any of these premises holds true."</p>

Former Romney Economic Adviser Writes New Paper In Defense Of The '1 Percent'

<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/51bf1506ecad046573000019-559-419/greg-mankiw-2.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="greg mankiw" width="480" /><p class="source"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAfhExPndO0">YouTube/WHFreemanWorth</a></p><p class="caption"><keyword id="1739375" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Greg-Mankiw">Greg Mankiw</keyword></p></div></div>Greg Mankiw, the former economic adviser to <keyword id="156887" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Mitt-Romney">Mitt Romney</keyword>, is <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/defending_the_one_percent.pdf" target="_blank">out with a new paper</a> that aims to "defend the 1 percent" and the status quo of income equality in the United States. </p>
<p>In the 23-page paper, Mankiw attempts to tackle the question of whether more redistribution is needed to spread income gains more equally. </p>
<p>Specifically at the start of his paper, Mankiw addresses stats that have shown the enormous growth in income shares for the top 1 percent (from 7.7 percent in 1973 to 17.4 percent in 2010) and the top 0.01 percent (<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">0.5 percent </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">in 1973 to 3.3 percent in 2010). These numbers, in no small part, precipitated movements like Occupy Wall Street, Mankiw writes.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">In one of his key points, Mankiw brushes back on the common suggestion that CEO pay his risen astronomically in comparison to the average worker because boards of directors are too cozy with CEOs:</span></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"></span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Take the example of pay for chief executive officers. Without doubt, CEOs are paid handsomely, and their pay has </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">grown over time relative to that of the average worker. Commentators on this phenomenon </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">sometimes suggest that this high pay reflects the failure of corporate boards of directors to do their job. Rather than representing shareholders, the argument goes, boards are too cozy with the CEOs and pay them more than they are worth to </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">their organizations. </span></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Yet this argument fails to explain the behavior of closely-held corporations. A private </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">equity group with a controlling interest in a firm does not face the alleged principal-agent problem between shareholders and </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">boards, and yet these closely-held firms also pay their CEOs handsomely. Indeed, Kaplan (2012) </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">reports that over the past three decades, executive pay in closely-held firms has outpaced that in </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">public companies. Conqvist and Fahlenbrach (2012) find that when public companies go private, </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">the CEOs tend to get paid more rather than less in both base salaries and bonuses. In light of </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">these facts, the most natural explanation of high CEO pay is that the value of a good CEO is </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">extraordinarily high (a conclusion that, incidentally, is consistent with the model of CEO pay </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">proposed by Gabaix and Landier, 2008).</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Mankiw also attempts to tackle the suggestion that the rich should pay more in taxes because they benefit disproportionately from government services and infrastructure. In this section of his paper, Mankiw addresses President Barack Obama's now-infamous "you didn't build that" campaign line from 2012, which suggested that the rich achieved their wealth in large part due to benefits from good and services the government provides. </p>
<p>But Mankiw writes that the "average person" in the top 1 percent pays more than 25 percent of all federal income taxes, and he argues that this is fair compensation.</p>
<p>"In the end, the left’s arguments for increased redistribution are valid in principle but dubious in practice," Mankiw writes.</p>
<p>"If the current tax system were regressive, or if the incomes of the top 1  percent were much greater than their economic contributions, or if the rich enjoyed government  services in excess of what they pay in taxes, then the case for increasing the top tax rate would  indeed be strong. But there is no compelling reason to believe that any of these premises holds true."</p>

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/564e0334dd0895c8678b4697-1026-769/screen shot 2015-11-19 at 4.png" alt="John Maynard Keynes" data-mce-source="EconStories, Youtube" /><p class="source"><span>EconStories, Youtube</span></p><p class="caption">John Maynard Keynes doesn't have to be a left-wing figure.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Today, the ideas of economist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes">John Maynard Keynes</a> are pretty closely associated with left-wing or centre-left politics.</p><p>Similarly, the right is more closely associated with either Milton Friedman-style monetarism or Friedrich Hayek-style Austrian economics, both of which are sceptical of Keynesian stimulus for different reasons.</p><p>It wasn't always that way. For much of the post-war period, Keynesian principles were part of the mix for the mainstream right, too.</p><p>And it might be better for the world if those ideas had some more right-wing advocates today.</p><p>The major principle behind Keynesianism is that during slumps, a combination of monetary stimulus (mostly cutting interest rates) and fiscal stimulus (cutting taxes or hiking spending) is the best way to engineer a recovery.</p><p>Interestingly, when you look across the leading major advanced economies right now, the head of government that probably fits with Keynes most closely is also the most conservative: Japan's Shinzo Abe - though he now has some competition now on the fiscal front from Canada's Justin Trudeau.</p><p>Abe has not advocated the austerity that other countries have pursued. His "Abenomics" includes a massive monetary stimulus has been combined with at most, a very relaxed approach to balancing the books. Abe came to power in 2012 advocating <a href="http://qz.com/37804/abe-is-planning-a-massive-fiscal-stimulus-but-whats-left-to-stimulate/">a spending spree</a>.</p><p>When a consumption tax increase in 2014 (planned by his predecessor) sent the economy into recession, Abe announced that the next hike would be pushed back for years and promised another round of stimulus. Etsuro Honda, Abe's economic advisor, has advocated <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/abe-adviser-calls-for-fresh-fiscal-stimulus-in-japan-1445568843">even more stimulus recently</a>. Some economists think that Abe is even <a href="http://www.ejinsight.com/20150317-japan-debt-it-s-not-what-it-looks-like/">monetising the country's massive debts</a>, effectively printing money to fund them.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56095e84dd0895ef1c8b45d8-697-523/japan-eyes-defense-budget-hike-to-fortify-island-chain-facing-china--2015-8.jpg" alt="Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) reviews members of Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) during the JSDF Air Review, to celebrate 60 years since the service's founding, at Hyakuri air base in Omitama, northeast of Tokyo, in this October 26, 2014 file photo. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/Files" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="File photo of Japan's PM Abe reviewing members of JSDF during the JSDF Air Review to celebrate 60 years since the service's founding at Hyakuri air base in Omitama" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">File photo of Japan's PM Abe reviewing members of JSDF during the JSDF Air Review to celebrate 60 years since the service's founding at Hyakuri air base in Omitama</p></div><p></p></div></div>Abe has illustrated that an undoubtedly conservative political path can include stimulus, both monetary and fiscal. Whether you think that works or not, Abe has clearly attempted both as part of an unashamedly conservative programme. He's a nationalist with a much more positive view of imperial Japanese history than most people, advocates structural reforms to the economy, and takes a hawkish view on foreign policy. One of his lifelong aims has been to remilitarise Japan.</p><p>Beyond the political sphere, there are definitely some economists who you could call right-wing Keynesians - or at least <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Keynesian_economics">New Keynesian</a> economists who otherwise favour pretty free-market approaches.</p><p>One that springs to mind is Greg Mankiw, who's usually thought of as a conservative in American terms. In 2013, he wrote an article called "<a href="http://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/mankiw_140212.pdf">defending the one percent</a>." He's a critic of <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/npc.pdf">taxes on capital</a>, sceptical of <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/mankiw/content/cost-living-wage">minimum wages</a> and went <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/06/21/the-aca-obamacare-has-reduced-us-gdp-by-5/">to bat against Obamacare</a>.</p><p>That all makes sense, given that he was head of the Council of Economic Advisors under President George W. Bush, from 2003 to 2005, and economic adviser to Mitt Romney during his 2012 presidential run.</p><p>So it might feel a little bit odd to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/business/economy/30view.html?_r=0">read this</a>, which Mankiw wrote in 2008:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">If you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes. Although Keynes died more than a half-century ago, his diagnosis of recessions and depressions remains the foundation of modern macroeconomics. His insights go a long way toward explaining the challenges we now confront.</p><p>It seems like a jarring contrast, since a lot of people associate fiscal stimulus and the ideas of Keynes with the left of the political spectrum. But there's really nothing particularly weird going on here. Mankiw simply believes that when economies are severely depressed, you need some form of stimulus, and that the Federal Reserve is restrained by the zero lower bound - it can't go much lower once it cuts interest rates to 0%.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/564e0589dd0895c8608b468d-1545-1159/rtr1mhv.jpg" alt="Greg Mankiw george Bush" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Rick Wilking" data-mce-caption="Greg Mankiw (third from right) walks with President George W. Bush in 2003." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Rick Wilking</span></p><p class="caption">Greg Mankiw (third from right) walks with President George W. Bush in 2003.</p></div><p></p></div></div>So he advocates a fiscal stimulus that's <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/my-preferred-fiscal-stimulus.html">based on tax cuts instead of spending increases</a>. It's a pretty simple mechanism - a permanent and rapid reduction in payroll taxes to stimulate the economy (which raises the deficit).</p><p>That would be followed over time by a slower increase in gasoline taxes, designed to raise the same amount of tax revenue eventually that the payroll tax cut got rid of. Mankiw's been a long-term backer of <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.co.uk/2006/10/pigou-club-manifesto.html">higher taxes on fuel</a>, to reduce congestion, pollution, and for national security reasons. There's nothing particularly left-wing about trying to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality#Negative">eliminate negative externalities</a>, like carbon emissions.</p><p>For at least five years now, Keynesians have been losing a political battle. Austerity programmes have been implemented across the advanced world, even in places like the eurozone, parts of which are extremely depressed. A lot of voters have a negative perception of both fiscal and monetary stimulus, imagining a government's economic behaviour as like a household, and wanting to avoid taking on debt.</p><p>Right now in the US and <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword>, there's no real need for any major fiscal stimulus, but the next time a recession rolls around, monetary policy might not be able to carry the can. Interest rates are already close to or at zero across much of the world, and monetary policymakers are much more restrained than they were in 2008. HSBC's Stephen King has described the global economy as like an <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbcs-stephen-king-on-the-world-economy-2015-5">ocean liner without enough lifeboats</a>.</p><p>Bringing free market and low-tax advocates on board could bolster the support for Keynesian responses instead, and it would probably help if those programmes weren't only associated with left-wing politics. Next time there's a crisis, fiscal policy might be the only game in town - so the rich world could do with more Greg Mankiws, and more Shinzo Abes.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-investment-james-altucher-buy-rent-2015-11">JAMES ALTUCHER: This is why owning a home is financial suicide</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="0yNjBzeDo1bPwt1rmBJ8yS7MxZE2di07" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', '0yNjBzeDo1bPwt1rmBJ8yS7MxZE2di07',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

The world needs more right-wing Keynesians

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5c991cae16c9584c80478c8c-972/screen shot 2017-04-26 at 95947 am.png" border="0" alt="stephen moore" data-mce-source="Screenshot, YouTube" data-mce-caption="This is Stephen Moore. He likes tax cuts." data-link="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhvggoVScLk" /><p class="source"><span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhvggoVScLk">Screenshot, YouTube</a></span></p><p class="caption">This is Stephen Moore. He likes tax cuts.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>President Donald Trump said Friday he would nominate Stephen Moore for an open spot on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors. </strong></li><li><strong>Moore holds unconventional views <strong>and has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle.</strong></strong></li><li><strong>He has even suggested pegging interest rates to the cost of commodities, which could cause widespread price volatility.</strong></li></ul><hr /><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A political ally to President Donald Trump and an outspoken critic of the Federal Reserve, Stephen Moore has raised a litany of concerns following <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-will-appoint-stephen-moore-federal-reserve-board-of-governors-2019-3">his nomination</a> for an open seat on the Board of Governors.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But among the most glaring for policymakers: Moore has pushed officials to target commodity prices when setting interest rates, an approach rejected by economists from across the political spectrum. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"The Fed's goal should be to avoid excessively loose or tight money by seeking stable commodity prices," Moore </span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-a-threat-to-growth-11552518464"><span style="font-weight: 400;">wrote</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in a Wall Street Journal op-ed with co-author Louis Woodhill, an investor and entrepreneur. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">He argued that the Federal Open Market Committee, a decision-making body he would earn a spot on if confirmed as a governor by the Senate, should move interest rates in tandem with a composite commodity-price index. They should hike when it's up, he said, and cut when it's down.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Contrary to mainstream economists, Moore seems to view commodity prices as a leading catalyst for other asset classes. He blamed higher interest rates for a sharp sell-off in financial markets at the end of 2018 and misleadingly claimed the economy faced an overall deflation after.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While commodity prices are considered when setting monetary policy, they're just a few of many factors. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">They should reflect real interest rates rather than be the sole factor determining them, according to Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Stephen Moore has one of the worst records of espousing destabilizing pro-cyclical monetary policy," he said. "</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">If anyone is again proposing that the Fed should target commodity prices, that idea is as nuts now as it was in the 1980's."</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Commodity markets are volatile by nature and don't necessarily represent price movements across the rest of the economy. In 2018, oil prices jumped to and from multi-year highs within a matter of weeks. The cost of soybeans sometimes moved in lock step with trade negotiations between the US and China. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"Targeting commodity prices is definitely a 'fringe' view, and I doubt anyone else on the FOMC will take it seriously," said Ken Kuttner, an economist at Williams College and a former Federal Reserve staffer.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Seeking stable prices and maximum employment, the Federal Reserve looks at broad measures of the economy when assessing its rate path. This month, officials pointed to gloomier growth expectations when they said interest rates would likely remain steady for the rest of the year. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">While Moore would get just one vote on the 12-member FOMC, his views toward policy could have wide-reaching effects. It's no accident that central banks tend to be consensus-driven, said Josh Wright, chief economist at iCMIS and a former researcher at the Federal Reserve.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"If a dissenter has credibility with financial markets, she or he could blunt the message of the majority or increase concerns about political interference," he said. "So there's a significant risk of further erosion or at least shift in our political culture from having an unconventional Fed governor."</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The confirmation process could be an uphill battle for Moore, who wrote a book praising Trump's fiscal policies and has said </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">policymakers at the Federal Reserve should be fired. While Republicans control the Senate, concerns have surfaced from within the party. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">On Friday, Greg Mankiw, a Harvard University professor who was chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under former President George W. Bush, said Moore was unfit for the job and urged lawmakers to reject the nomination. </span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">"It is time for Senators to do their job," he </span><a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">wrote</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> on his website. "Mr. Moore should not be confirmed."</span></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2019-market-outlook-john-rogers-ariel-investments-on-fund-performance-whats-ahead-2019-3">The founder and CIO of $12 billion Ariel Investments breaks down how his top-ranked flagship fund has crushed its peers over the past 10 years</a></h3>        <div>            <iframe class="bijwplayerclass" data-player="jwplayer" src="https://content.jwplatform.com/players/HR2ryZZj-CEZHWCBG.html" width="100%" height="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" style="margin:0px;" allowfullscreen=""></iframe><script>function receiveMessage(event){ console.log(event.data.fullscreen); Android.fullscreen(event.data.fullscreen); }window.addEventListener("message", receiveMessage, false);</script>        </div>    </div>

Economists say the way Trump's latest Fed pick wants to set interest rates is 'fringe' and 'nuts'

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/574850529105844e018c57d6-752/screen shot 2016-05-27 at 9.45.48 am copy.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016 05 27 at 9.45.48 AM copy" data-mce-source="Investing.com" data-link="http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30" /><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30">Investing.com</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Stocks are largely unchanged in early trading Friday ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen.</p><p>Near 9:43 a.m. ET, the Dow was up 24 points (+0.14%), the S&amp;P 500 was up 4 points (+0.2%) and the Nasdaq was up 10 points (+0.21%). </p><p>The long Memorial Day weekend is just ahead, and volumes are typically lower on a day like this as some on Wall Street get a head start. </p><p>But it's been a strong week that pushed markets closer to all-time highs. The S&amp;P 500 is headed for a five-day advance of at least 2%.</p><p>Earlier, the second estimate of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-gdp-q2-2016-second-estimate-2016-5">Q1 GDP</a> showed that the economy grew 0.8%, revised up from the 0.5% pace previously reported. The improvement was mostly due to a reduced drag from inventories, although with final sales unchanged, stockpiles are still elevated according to Deutsche Bank's <a href="https://twitter.com/Lavorgnanomics/status/736179672057319424">Joe LaVorgna</a>. </p><p>The University of Michigan's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-consumer-sentiment-may-27-2016-5">consumer sentiment</a> for May was 94.7, revised down from earlier in the month, but up from 89 in April.</p><p>At 1 p.m., Baker Hughes will publish its weekly count of oil and gas rigs. </p><p>Then at 1:15 p.m. ET, Yellen is expected to begin a conversation with Harvard professor Greg Mankiw. As usual, markets will be looking for comment on what she's thinking about monetary policy, and this time, on the odds of a rate hike in June. </p><p>After cracking $50 per barrel  on Thursday, West Texas Intermediate crude retreated and was down 1.5% to $48.73.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-hiroshima-visit-japan-nuclear-weapons-2016-5">President Obama calls for the end of nuclear weapons at Hiroshima</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="1qYXJyMzE6cKiNm16nl_F4-rT5u43SI2" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', '1qYXJyMzE6cKiNm16nl_F4-rT5u43SI2',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

Stocks aren't doing much

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57482f8452bcd025008c56ab-800/screen shot 2016-05-27 at 7.28.29 am.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016 05 27 at 7.28.29 AM" data-mce-source="Investing.com" data-link="http://www.investing.com/" /><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.investing.com/">Investing.com</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Good morning!</p><p>Petro-currencies are tumbling again as both Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude are lower.</p><p>The <strong>Canadian dollar</strong> is weaker by 0.5% at 1.3039 per dollar, the <strong>Russian ruble</strong> is off 0.3% at 66.0086 per dollar, and the <strong>Mexican peso</strong> is down 0.3% at 18.4996 per dollar.</p><p>Oil prices have been driven higher in recent weeks by ongoing supply disruptions in places like <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/opec-nigeria-production-cut-2016-5">Nigeria </a>and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-canada-monetary-policy-report-2016-5">Canada</a> - and both WTI and Brent cracked through $50 a barrel early on Thursday.</p><p>However, both are now back below the $50 level, with WTI down 1.0% at $49.01 and Brent lower by 1.4% at $48.91.</p><p>As for the rest of the world, here's the scoreboard as of 7:40 a.m. ET:</p><ul><li><span style="color: #222222; line-height: 1.5em;">The </span><strong style="color: #222222; line-height: 1.5em;">US dollar</strong><span style="color: #222222; line-height: 1.5em;"> is little changed at 95.27 ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-26/wall-street-s-bbq-weekend-put-on-hold-as-yellen-takes-the-stage">discussion</a> with economics professor Greg Mankiw on the economy. The discussion will begin at 1:15 p.m. ET, and traders will be keeping their eyes open for any clues about the pace of Fed rate hikes.</span></li><li>The <strong>Japanese yen</strong> is little changed at 109.64 per dollar as the country <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/report-japan-looks-set-to-delay-its-sales-tax-increase-again-2016-5">reportedly</a> looks to delay its sales tax increase. <span>The sales tax had been scheduled to increase to 10% from 8% in April 2017.</span><span> The delay is expected to be between one and three years. Separately, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fall-in-japanese-consumer-prices-is-speeding-up-2016-5">consumer prices</a> in Japan are still sliding, falling by 0.3% year-over-year n April.</span></li><li>The <strong>Turkish lira</strong> is weaker by 0.3% at 2.9458 after a couple of good days as the currency floated through political risks and the central bank's rate cut. However, "we suspect that political risk will rear its head again before too long and we are not confident that the global risk back drop will remain positive," wrote Morgan Stanley's Hans W. Redeker in a note to clients.</li></ul>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-ice-wall-radiation-fukushima-2016-3">Japan has built a massive ice wall around Fukushima</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="03MjRoMjE6LtKlgUpVz53ErsOsPmRJ-T" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', '03MjRoMjE6LtKlgUpVz53ErsOsPmRJ-T',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

Petro-currencies are slipping - here's what's happening in FX

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/58a2fc8a3149a1b6008b6b8b-2400/undefined" alt="Trump" data-mce-source="Kevin Dietsch/Getty" data-mce-caption="WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 13: (AFP OUT) U.S. President Donald Trump (R) during a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada (not pictured) in the Oval Office at the White House on February 13, 2017 in Washington, D.C." /><p class="source"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty</span></p><p class="caption">President Donald Trump during a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada at the White House on Monday.</p></div><p></p></div></div>President Donald Trump already had <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/president-trumps-impact-on-the-fed-2016-11">ample leeway to reshape the Federal Reserve</a>, with Janet Yellen's term as chair expiring early next year and two key slots on the central bank's board left open after Republicans failed to bring President Barack Obama's longstanding nominees to a vote.</p><p>Now, with the sudden <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/daniel-tarullo-resigns-from-federal-reserve-2017-2">resignation of Daniel Tarullo</a>, President Trump pretty much has full reign over the powerful US central bank.</p><p>Tarullo was the Fed's point man on regulation, and his announcement came just days after the new administration announced it was ready to tear up the very post-financial-crisis rules that Tarullo, Fed officials, and other regulators have spent years debating and implementing.</p><p>Tarullo's term was not due to expire until 2022. He could have, as The New York Times' <a href="https://twitter.com/BCAppelbaum/status/830134917854003203">Binyamin Applebaum tweeted</a>, stayed on to fight against the looming rollback.</p><p>But in the end, Tarullo was all too aware that as independent as the Fed likes to think of itself, it is ultimately accountable to Congress and, by the nature of appointments, the president. Why fight a losing battle and then have your name associated with the next financial blowup? One can forgive him for <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/other20170210a1.pdf">calling it quits </a>after eight years.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/58a2ffac3149a1f7778b53bd-686/undefined" alt="tarullo resignation" data-mce-source="US Federal Reserve" /><p class="source"><span>US Federal Reserve</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>That battle will ultimately take place in the realm of politics, not policymaking, as indicated by the pushback Trump is getting from Democrats in addition to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-international-incident-financial-regulation-2017-2">many Europeans</a>, who fear deregulation in the US could destabilize their banking systems.</p><p>Trump has vowed to do a "big number" on Dodd-Frank, and he placed former Goldman Sachs president Gary Cohn and his recently confirmed Treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin, <a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2016-12-01/donald-trump-is-backing-wall-street-loyalists-breaking-campaign-promises">also a longtime Goldman banker</a>, in charge of doing the dismantling.</p><p>On interest-rate policy, the Fed's board also loses a publicly circumspect but vocal voice calling for a more dovish, pro-employment approach to policy, particularly with inflation hovering below the central bank's target for most of the economic recovery.</p><p>The trouble of predicting what a Trump Fed would look like is the same problem with trying to predict anything Trump: It's not really possible. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-warsh-is-a-contender-for-federal-reserve-chair-2017-2">It's clear that one name</a>, that of Kevin Warsh, a Republican former Fed governor, will cross Trump's desk when he turns his attention to the issue of the Fed. It's hard to imagine he has given it much consideration given all the other controversies that have embroiled his first couple of weeks in office, including immigration and foreign relations.</p><p>But three open slots are coming up soon, and the vice chairmanship will also be up for grabs.</p><p>That list of names just doesn't exist yet. If he listens to the Republican establishment, the list could include conservative economists like Harvard's Greg Mankiw, a former George W. Bush adviser, and Hoover Institution fellow and former Treasury official John Taylor.</p><p>If he doesn't, as is often the case, the picks for governors and chair are hard to fathom. Perhaps someone with a bit of television flair, press-conference ready. Jim Cramer? Suze Orman?</p><p class="tagline">This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jake-tapper-donald-trump-interview-kellyanne-conway-cnn-murder-rate-terrorism-attack-2017-2">'It's a lie': Jake Tapper calls out Trump during a fiery interview with Kellyanne Conway</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="Bkb29pOTE6DI53bUfdwru76-ARzZGZTg" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'Bkb29pOTE6DI53bUfdwru76-ARzZGZTg',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

Trump's vast power to reshape the Fed will be the next major source of uncertainty for markets

<p><em><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53f0d2496bb3f7137d4213d4-747-722/screen shot 2014-08-17 at 12.02.30 pm.png" border="0" alt="Screen Shot 2014 08 17 at 12.02.30 PM"><p class="source"><span>The Economist</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div>It's Economics 101</em></p>
<p>STUDENTS can learn a lot about economics when they buy Greg Mankiw's "Principles of Economics"--even if they don't read it. Like many popular textbooks, it is horribly expensive: $292.17 on Amazon. Indeed, the nominal price of textbooks has risen more than fifteenfold since 1970, three times the rate of inflation (see chart).</p>
<p>Like doctors prescribing drugs, professors assigning textbooks do not pay for the products themselves, so they have little incentive to pick cheap ones. Some assign books they have written themselves. The 20m post-secondary students in America often have little choice in the matter. Small wonder textbooks generate megabucks.</p>
<p>But hope is not lost for poor scholars. Foreign editions are easy to find online and often cheaper--sometimes by over 90%. Publishers can be litigious about this, but in 2013 the Supreme Court ruled that Americans have the right to buy and resell copyrighted material obtained legally. Many university bookstores now let students rent books and return them. Publishers have begun to offer digital textbooks, which are cheaper but can't be resold. And if all else fails, there is always the library.</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist</p>
<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="https://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT04Njc1MjU3YTIxMzdlMGVkZTllYmNlM2UzZjRiNmZmMyZub25jZT1iZjIwNmExNy04ZmQ0LTQwYTMtYmVkOC1mZGFlYzY3ZjY2MTMmcHVibGlzaGVyPTczMGViODZhYjU5ZjBkNDE5MjZhYzY1YjAxZjgzZTJm" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>

Why College Textbooks Cost So Much

<p><div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image"><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/52a8b3c9eab8ea4b2fa6b874-1200-924/stanley-fischer.png?maxX=480" border="0" alt="Stanley Fischer" width="480" /><p class="source"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yhu9YzcdXI">YouTube</a></p></div></div>There <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stanley-fischer-deputy-fed-chief-2013-12">are reports</a> that The White House will nominate former Israeli central bank chief <keyword id="341085" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stanley-Fischer">Stanley Fischer</keyword> to serve as Deputy Fed Chair, taking over the job Janet Yellen will vacate when she becomes chair. </p>
<p>People are freaking out because Fischer is an unexpected and unprecedented choice, and an absolute legend in central banking circles. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/stan-fischer-saved-israels-economy-can-he-save-americas/">This longer profile of Fischer</a> from the Washington Post's Dylan Matthews is worth reading, but here are a few of the reasons his rumored nomination has people so excited.</p>
<ul>
<li>He's credited with essentially saving the Israeli economy, the economy barely faltered during the global financial crisis.</li>
<li>While other countries were still struggling in the depths of recession or depression, Fischer actually <em>raised</em> rates in Israel in 2009, basically saying that the crisis was over for the country. It's the ultimate central banking power move. </li>
<li>He aggressively manipulated the country's currency, the Shekel, and the massive devaluation helped the country keep growing </li>
<li>Israeli politics might be even more dysfunctional than the US congress, but Fischer still got the job done, and is hugely respected in the country. </li>
<li>Fischer was Ben Bernanke's thesis advisor at MIT, probably the world's best economics department, and advised other famous economists like ECB Chief Mario Draghi and Harvard's Greg Mankiw.</li>
<li>He is a brilliant academic economist, and one of the fathers of New Keynesian economics, which is the dominant approach in leading departments</li>
<li>He has some fascinating and unconventional views on monetary policy, and is a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stanley-fischer-stepping-down-as-bank-of-israel-chief-2013-1">de facto champion of NGDP targeting</a>.</li>
<li>The rest of his resume is equally stellar, he helped resolve the Asian financial crisis of the late 90s at the IMF, and rose to a top job at Citigroup</li>
</ul>
<p>Fischer is a rockstar. </p>

Here's Why People Are So Excited That Stanley Fischer Might Be The Deputy Fed Chief

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57482a0352bcd044008c585f-2222/rtsfydk.png" alt="art project" data-mce-source="Reuters/China Stringer Network" data-mce-caption="A woman walks on steps lined with plastic cups, an art project of four college students, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China." data-link="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&amp;ALID=2C0BF1F9JU5AZ#/SearchResult&amp;ALID=2C0BF1F9JU5AZ&amp;VBID=2C0BX4X96Z2&amp;POPUPPN=3&amp;POPUPIID=2C0FQEB1F2AO" /><p class="source"><span><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&amp;ALID=2C0BF1F9JU5AZ#/SearchResult&amp;ALID=2C0BF1F9JU5AZ&amp;VBID=2C0BX4X96Z2&amp;POPUPPN=3&amp;POPUPIID=2C0FQEB1F2AO">Reuters/China Stringer Network</a></span></p><p class="caption">A woman walks on steps lined with plastic cups, an art project of four college students, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Here is what you need to know.</p><p><strong><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-26/wall-street-s-bbq-weekend-put-on-hold-as-yellen-takes-the-stage">Janet Yellen speaks at Harvard</a>. </strong>Fed Chair Janet Yellen will take part in a discussion on the economy with Harvard University economics professor Greg Mankiw. The event is likely to delay some traders from heading out early for the holiday weekend as it could provide some clues as to the pace of Fed rate hikes. The discussion is set to begin at 1:15 p.m. ET.</p><p><strong><a href="http://www.japan.go.jp/g7/_userdata/common/data/000160266.pdf">The G7 winds down</a>.</strong> Leaders from seven of the world's biggest industrial powers met in central Japan over the past two days, discussing topics ranging from currency manipulation to Brexit worries to North Korea. The group agreed to avoid "competitive devaluation" of its currencies and concluded, "<span><span>Global growth is our urgent priority."</span></span></p><p><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-industrial-profits-are-rising-2016-5">China's industrial profits are up</a>.</strong> Industrial profits in China rose <span>4.2% year-over-year in April to 502 billion yuan ($76.6 billion). That's a big improvement from the 11.1% drop that was recorded in March. The profit rebound has coincided with a surge in <span>Chinese credit growth and infrastructure investment. </span></span></p><p><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/report-japan-looks-set-to-delay-its-sales-tax-increase-again-2016-5">Japan is reportedly looking to delay its sales tax increase</a>.</strong> <span>Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to delay his planned national sales tax hike, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. The sales tax had been scheduled to increase to 10% from 8% in April 2017.</span> The delay is expected to be between one and three years.</p><p><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fall-in-japanese-consumer-prices-is-speeding-up-2016-5">Consumer prices in Japan are still sliding</a>.</strong> Consumer prices in Japan fell 0.3% YoY in April, which was slightly better than the 0.4% drop that economists had forecast. Meanwhile, the closely watched reading for prices in Tokyo fell 0.5% YoY, missing the 0.4% decline that was expected. The Japanese yen is little changed near 109.65.</p><p><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/google-won-its-lawsuit-against-oracle-2016-5">Google won its legal battle against Oracle</a>.</strong> A jury has decided that Google's use of Oracle's a<span>pplication programming interfaces</span> for Android was "fair use." Google used about 11,000 lines of code from Oracle's Java within its millions of lines of code for Android, and refused to pay a licensing fee, which is what led to the lawsuit. Oracle was expected to ask for as much as $9 billion if the verdict was favorable.</p><p><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-valeant-rejected-joint-takeover-bid-from-takeda-tpg-in-spring-source-2016-5">Valeant rejected a takeover bid during the spring</a>.</strong> The embattled pharmaceutical company rejected a joint takeover bid by <span>Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd and TPG Capital Management, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. The company reportedly turned down the offer as it wanted to give new CEO Joseph Papa time to turn things around. Shares of Valeant were up more than 6% in Thursday's after-hours session.<br /></span></p><p><strong><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ipo-expert-stan-meresman-on-snapchat-board-2016-5">Snapchat might be preparing for an IPO</a>.</strong> In a regulatory filing, Snapchat named <span>Stan Meresman to its board of directors. On his personal website, Meresman says he "<span>advises CEOs &amp; CFOs on preparing to become a public reporting company, IPO process, operating as a public company, and scaling the company for rapid growth." Companies Meresman has helped go public include <span>LinkedIn, Zynga, Riverbed Technology, and Polycom.</span></span></span></p><p><strong>Stock markets around the world are mixed. </strong>Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.9%) led the gains overnight and Germany's DAX (+0.1%) hangs onto small gains in Europe. S&amp;P 500 futures are up 1.50 points at 2091.25.</p><p><strong>US economic data flows. </strong>Q1 GDP - Second Estimate will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET and University of Michigan consumer confidence will cross the wires at 10 a.m. ET. The US 10-year yield is unchanged at 1.83%.</p>        <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sacha-baron-cohen-ali-g-trump-interview-2016-5">Sacha Baron Cohen recounts his 2003 Trump interview: 'I was the first person actually to realize that he's a d---'</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="4zczVwMzE6hmDuChB9a3GbUrHyGrp7Iw" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', '4zczVwMzE6hmDuChB9a3GbUrHyGrp7Iw',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

10 things you need to know before the opening bell

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/52a8b589eab8ea7e34a6b870-1200-924/stanley-fischer-2.jpg?maxX=480" border="0" alt="Stanley Fischer" width="480" /><p class="source"><span>Reuters/Baz Ratner</span></p></div><p></p></div>Stanley Fischer <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-to-nominate-fischer-to-fed-today-2014-1">will be officially nominated today</a> as a Governor and Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the job Janet Yellen is vacating as she becomes Chairwoman. </p>
<p>While Yellen is incredibly qualified, it's exciting to have Fischer beside her. </p>
<p>He's a legend in central banking and economics circles, and for good reason. Fischer's a highly accomplished monetary economist, and excelled as Israel's central banker. </p>
<p>When rumors of his nomination cropped up, Morgan Stanley's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-on-stanley-fischer-2013-12">Vincent Reinhart wrote</a> that it would create a "Fed Dream Team." </p>
<p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/15/stan-fischer-saved-israels-economy-can-he-save-americas/">There's a longer profile of Fischer</a><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> from the Washington Post's Dylan Matthews that's worth reading, but here are a few of the reasons his nomination is great news.</span></p>
<ul>
<li>He's credited with essentially saving the Israeli economy, the economy barely faltered during the global financial crisis.</li>
<li>Fischer's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-stanley-fischer-monetary-policy-2013-12">skeptical of forward guidance</a> as a policy tool, something Yellen endorses, which hopefully means he'll bring debate and an outside viewpoint to Fed meetings. </li>
<li>While other countries were still struggling in the depths of recession or depression, Fischer actually <em>raised</em> rates in Israel in 2009, basically saying that the crisis was over for the country. It's the ultimate central banking power move.<span style="line-height: 1.5em;"> </span></li>
<li>He aggressively manipulated the country's currency, the Shekel, and the massive devaluation helped the country keep growing. </li>
<li>Israeli politics might be even more dysfunctional than the U.S. congress, but Fischer still got the job done, and is hugely respected in the country. </li>
<li>Fischer was Ben Bernanke's thesis advisor at MIT, probably the world's best economics department, and advised other famous economists like ECB Chief Mario Draghi and Harvard's Greg Mankiw.</li>
<li>"Fischer has been around the inner circle of international economic policymaking for three decades," Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhart <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-on-stanley-fischer-2013-12">wrote in a research note.</a> "If he was not at a major meeting in person, one of his students from his long tenure at MIT probably was."</li>
<li>He is a brilliant academic economist, and one of the fathers of New Keynesian economics, which is the dominant approach in leading departments.</li>
<li>He has some fascinating and unconventional views on monetary policy, and arguably a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stanley-fischer-stepping-down-as-bank-of-israel-chief-2013-1">de facto champion of NGDP targeting</a>.</li>
<li>The rest of his résumé is equally stellar, he helped resolve the Asian financial crisis of the late '90s at the IMF, and rose to a top job at Citigroup</li>
</ul>
<p>It's difficult to think of a more qualified or interesting choice for an essential job. </p>

America's Monetary Policy Dream Team Is Finally Coming Together

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/536674d56da81140393c39d7-999-1332/garybecker-may24-2008.jpg" border="0" alt="Gary Becker" /><p class="source"><span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GaryBecker-May24-2008.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div>Nobel Laureate economist Gary Becker has passed away, <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2014/05/very-sad-news.html?m=1">Greg Mankiw reports on his blog</a>.</p>
<p>The 82-year old Becker was pioneer in using the tools of economics to analyze things that are frequently thought to be outside the realm of economics (now that's commonplace, as the Freakonomics guys have shown).</p>
<p>Becker's Nobel Prize lecture is titled <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1992/becker-lecture.pdf">The Economic Way Of Looking At Life</a> (.pdf) and in it, Becker briefly goes over how he used economics to analyze such topics as crime (why people commit it), discrimination against minorities, and family life.</p>
<p>In his powerful intro, he makes two important points. One is that economists who presume that everyone is selfish (maximizing their own utility) take too narrow a view of human motivation. People are motivated to act for all kinds of reasons (jealousy, spite, etc.). His other point is that while productivity has provided abundance in many areas, the one resource that we'll never have more of his time. Time will always run out, and there will always only be 24 hours in a day. For this reason, we'll never have Utopia, because that scarcity will always be there.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">My research uses the economic approach to analyze social issues that range beyond those usually considered by economists. This lecture will describe the approach, and illustrate it with examples drawn from past and current work.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Unlike Marxian analysis, the economic approach I refer to does not assume that individuals are motivated solely by selfishness or gain. It is a method of analysis, not an assumption about particular motivations. Along with others, I have tried to pry economists away from narrow assumptions about self interest.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Behavior is driven by a much richer set of values and preferences. The analysis assumes that individuals maximize welfare as they conceive it, whether they be selfish, altruistic, loyal, spiteful, or masochistic. Their behavior is forward-looking, and it is also consistent over time. In particular, they try as best they can to anticipate the uncertain consequences of their actions.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Forward-looking behavior, however, may still be rooted in the past, for the past can exert a long shadow on attitudes and values. Actions are constrained by income, time, imperfect memory and calculating capacities, and other limited resources, and also by the available opportunities in the economy and elsewhere. These opportunities are largely determined by the private and collective actions of other individuals and organizations.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Different constraints are decisive for different situations, but the most fundamental constraint is limited time. Economic and medical progress have greatly increased length of life, but not the physical flow of time itself, which always restricts everyone to twenty-four hours per day. So while goods and services have expended enormously in rich countries, the total time available to consume has not. Thus, wants remain unsatisfied in rich countries as well as in poor ones.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"> For while the growing abundance of goods may reduce the value of additional goods, time becomes more valuable as goods become more abundant. Utility maximization is of no relevance in a Utopia where everyone's needs are fully satisfied, but the constant flow of time makes such a Utopia impossible.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1992/becker-lecture.pdf"><strong>Read the full lecture here &gt;</strong></a></p>

The Simple Reason We're Never Going To Live In A Utopia

<p><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:480px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/51f6d6386bb3f78963000010-600-450/grizzly-2.jpg?maxX=480&amp;maxY=360" border="0" alt="grizzly bear" width="480" height="360" /><p class="source"><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult_VPage&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ64USBNX&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1515&amp;RH=858">REUTERS/Mathieu Belanger </a></p></div></div><em><strong>FA Insights is a daily newsletter from Business Insider that delivers the top news and commentary for financial advisors. For more visit Business Insider's new <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wealthadvisor">Wealth Advisor</a> vertical.</strong></em></p>
<p><strong><a href="https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_InvComRiskOfLoss">Investors Shouldn't Be As Afraid Of A Potential Bond Bear Market, As A Potential Bear Market In Stocks</a> (Vanguard) </strong></p>
<p>In a new paper titled 'Risk of loss: Should the prospect of rising rates push investors from high quality bonds,' Vanguard's Christopher Philips argues investors should be more worried about a potential bear market in stocks than a bear market in bonds.</p>
<p>"Even the worst 12-month period for the U.S. bond market historically saw a little more than just one-fifth the losses of the worst 12-month period for the U.S. equity market." The paper also argues that if there were to be a bear market in bonds, investors could "somewhat offset price declines with higher nominal yields and potentially higher subsequent nominal returns."<strong> </strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20130728/REG/307289985"><strong>Times Are Getting Harder For RIAs</strong></a><strong> (Investment News)</strong></p>
<p>Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) are focused on financial planning and use fee-based compensation models. Now, Investment News reports that wirehouses and regional brokers are increasingly encroaching on both of these areas, making it more challenging for RIAs to compete. "It's a huge challenge to figure out how to grow your firm from here," Michael Kitces of Pinnacle Advisory Group told Investment News. "When you're competing against someone who may or may not be a fiduciary but uses the same business model, it's indistinguishable."<strong><br /></strong></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.bmocm.com/">Mega-Cap Stocks Are Positioned For A Prolonged Period Of Outperformance</a> (BMO Capital Markets)</strong></p>
<p>Brian Belski at BMO Capital Markets thinks that mega-cap stocks are "positioned for a prolonged period of significant outperformance." He points out that mega-cap stocks underperform during the early years of bull markets but historical patterns. </p>
<p>"Another characteristic that we believe is a strong tailwind for mega-cap stock performance is that most institutional investors remain underexposed to these stocks. ...Fund managers have been underweight mega-cap stocks for seven consecutive years, and have become increasingly so in recent years. This is important because pre-financial crisis, most fund managers maintained healthy overweight positions towards mega-caps. </p>
<p>"If the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that fund managers will pile into an asset class once it starts performing well (or avoid ones that have been performing poorly). So it is not too surprising they remain underweight mega-cap stocks given their underperformance in recent years. However, should these stocks begin to outperform in the coming months, as we expect, the fact that fund managers are underexposed is likely to boost performance, as fund managers play 'catch-up'."</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mankiw-thinks-you-should-hold-some-gold-2013-7"><strong>MANKIW: Why It Makes Sense For Investors To Have Some Gold In Their Portfolio</strong></a><strong> (The New York Times)</strong></p>
<p>Harvard economist Greg Mankiw said investors should give gold a 2% weight in their portfolio. This is for four key reasons. 1. There isn't a lot of gold and a lot of it isn't available to investors because it exists in the form of jewelry. 2. "Over the long run, gold’s price has outpaced overall prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index — but not by much." 3. Gold is extremely volatile. 4. Gold however doesn't correlate with stocks or bonds and could therefore reduce risk and a small allocation could be attractive.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-funds-are-buying-detroit-bonds-2013-7"><strong>Hedge Funds Are Buying Up Detroit Bonds So Fast There's A Waiting List</strong></a><strong> (CNNMoney)</strong></p>
<p>CNNMoney reported that the Detroit Municipal bond has become "the hottest trade on Wall Street." This is because hedge funds are betting that these bonds will be a good bet in the long run.</p>
<p>"Shortly after Detroit filed for bankruptcy, several hedge funds managed to buy $5 million of pension bonds for 41 cents on the dollar. Those were some of the only pension obligation bonds available.</p>
<p>"Hedge funds are also eyeing about $1 billion in general obligation bonds backed by Detroit. More of these have changed hands, but also in small increments. One hedge fund manager said he was able to procure $30,000 of general obligation bonds at 75 cents on the dollar from a dentist in Milwaukee. The fund was hoping to buy several millions of dollars' worth, but so far, that's all they can get their hands on."</p>

A Bear Market In Stocks Is Five Times Scarier Than A Bear Market In Bonds

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55f2dffadd0895ad788b45b3-2258-1694/rtr3bov7.jpg" alt="university lecturer" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won" data-mce-caption="A teacher gives a lecture at a cram school in a Goshichon, which means " /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won</span></p><p class="caption">A teacher gives a lecture at a cram school in a Goshichon, which means </p></div><p></p></div></div>It's a familiar situation for lots of people, especially since the financial crisis- Perhaps you've gone to university, or perhaps you haven't, but you want to know more about economics.</p><p>It seems not only like an important subject, but one that leaks into lots of parts of everyday life - as well as politics, technology, business, and pretty much everything really.</p><p>The good news is that there are plenty of ways to pick up a self-made education in economics, even if you don't want to learn the maths or go back to school.</p><p>Here are just three of the ways you can get into the dismal science.</p><h3>Lectures on YouTube</h3><p>MIT's <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vss3nofHpZI">Principles of Microeconomics</a> course is chopped into 26 videos of between 45 and 50 minutes, and it's all available on YouTube. Though you're deprived of the ability to ask questions, what you do get is the ability to rewind. It's not a bad swap. </p><p>If you want to go down this route, it'll give you a good idea of the basic modelling the underpins huge sections of economics. It's probably the most difficult way to learn - it's understandably designed for MIT students, and they're pretty smart. </p><p>It might be a good idea to learn along with a textbook, which is famously expensive for undergraduates. Greg Mankiw's microeconomics textbook, for example, costs over $200 (£129.60) to buy new, and some professors will want you to have the latest version to work from. </p><p>But you don't need that - you can get a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Principles-Microeconomics-N-Gregory-Mankiw/dp/0324319169/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1441887469&amp;sr=1-4&amp;keywords=mankiw+microeconomics">used version of the fourth edition</a> of the same book (written back in the Jurassic era, 2006) for less than $10 (£6.48). </p><p>Even if you do want to actually go back to formal education to study economics, this is a good way of getting into it. I started an evening conversion course in the subject in 2014, and found the videos helpful.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55f2dffadd0895ad788b45b4-3111-2333/rtr2ujkj.jpg" alt="A protester wearing a Guy Fawkes mask, symbolic of the hacktivist group " data-mce-source="REUTERS/Susana Vera" data-mce-caption="A protester wearing a Guy Fawkes mask, symbolic of the hacktivist group " /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Susana Vera</span></p><p class="caption">A protester wearing a Guy Fawkes mask, symbolic of the hacktivist group </p></div><p></p></div></div>And if that's your aim, you should read this piece from Miles Kimball and Noah smith on <a href="http://qz.com/116081/the-complete-guide-to-getting-into-an-economics-phd-program/">getting into an economics PhD</a>. If you live in the <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword>, you can take what's called a <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&amp;ion=1&amp;espv=2&amp;ie=UTF-8#q=graduate%20diploma%20in%20economics">Graduate Diploma in Economics</a>, effectively a conversion course from another degree subject into economics. </p><p>Brushing up on maths is easier than ever too. Khan Academy offers a series of quizzes and video lessons to be done in your own time in <a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/math">mathematics</a>, or <a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability">probability and statistics</a>. It's all free.</p><p>Admittedly, this is not going to be much of a fun way to learn the subject. A lot of the content is dense and can seem like it's not very much to do with any interesting economic issues. But if you're really committed to learning the basics of the discipline, this is a cheap way to get a taste of it, and it's the closest thing to the real academic training that you can get without taking an actual course.</p><h3>MOOCs</h3><p>Similarly, there are massive open online courses (MOOCs) like those run by <a href="http://mruniversity.com/">MRUniversity</a>. They've got courses designed to be taken online, ranging from a basic microeconomics course to one on the economic history of the Soviet Union. </p><p>With filmed lectures like the MIT ones, you can't interact, whereas MRUniversity allows you to post and answer questions. You can take entire courses all the way through or dip in and out. </p><p>Stanford University ran a similar course during the summer, <a href="https://lagunita.stanford.edu/courses/HumanitiesSciences/Econ_1/Summer2015/about">Principles of Economics with John B. Taylor</a>. This is something big that universities are moving in to more and more. </p><p>The <a href="https://www.coursera.org/learn/principles-of-macroeconomics">University of California has a Macroeconomics-specific course</a> on Coursera, which has a huge wealth of courses to be taken. </p><p>There are at least <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/039fb95a-161c-11e3-a57d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3lPpmmYtW">15 similar courses</a> listed by the Financial Times under economics, too. </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/559cf8f0dd0895f2338b46ab-2792-2094/rtr3oz0f.jpg" alt="Piketty Thomas" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Charles Platiau" data-mce-caption="French economist and academic Thomas Piketty, poses in his book-lined office at the French School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS), in Paris May 12, 2014." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Charles Platiau</span></p><p class="caption">French economist and academic Thomas Piketty, poses in his book-lined office at the French School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS), in Paris May 12, 2014.</p></div><p></p></div></div>This is probably the best middle-ground option. If you don't want it to be quite as maths-y as the MIT videos above, and have no desire to bury your head in a textbook, it might be the one for you. There's a big range of courses available for different ability levels. Some will require some understanding or aptitude for maths, and others are almost number-free.</p><h3>Self-study with books</h3><p>Learning online with videos, whether pre-recorded physical lectures or MOOC-style, isn't for everyone. Some people just want to learn a little more about economics, and don't need to know the maths or the nitty gritty elements of the discipline. </p><p>Thankfully, there are a bunch of books that anyone with an interest and a bit of time could read, which would give you a much better understanding of the subject: </p><ul><li>BBC economic journalist Tim Harford's "<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Undercover-Economist-Tim-Harford/dp/0349119856">The Undercover Economist</a>," or basically anything by Harford. </li><li>Sky News economics editor Ed Conway's "<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Economics-Ideas-Really-Need-Know/dp/1848660103">50 Economics Ideas You Really Need to Know</a>."</li><li>"<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Keynes-Hayek-Defined-Modern-Economics/dp/0393077489">Keynes Hayek: The Clash That Defined Modern Economics</a>" - Nicholas Wapshott takes a look at two of the most well-known thinkers in economics ever.</li><li>"<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Worldly-Philosophers-Economic-Thinkers/dp/0140290060">The Worldly Philsophers</a>" similarly takes a look at the lives of some of the handful of economists that have become household names. </li><li>Paul Krugman's "<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/pop-internationalism">Pop Internationalism</a>,"  which discusses some of the popular economic measurements most often reported on.</li><li>"<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Freakonomics-Economist-Explores-Hidden-Everything/dp/0141019018/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1441976640&amp;sr=1-1&amp;keywords=freakonomics">Freakonomics</a>" surely now counts as one of the most popular books on economics ever written, and there's reams of stuff about it online.</li><li>"<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Armchair-Economist-Economics-Everyday/dp/1471101312">The Armchair Economist</a>" has a Freakonomics-ish feel to it, exploring some everyday problems, and explaining how an economist would approach them. </li></ul><p>If you're never going to need to understand the nitty-gritty of models (or make your own) then this may be the best option. It's a daunting subject, but a huge amount can be picked up relatively easily - and once you start to think in the way an economist does, it's all downhill from there.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/50-cent-files-bankruptcy-lawsuit-rise-fall-2015-7">This is how rapper 50 Cent made millions and then lost it</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="VlbnI2djrZXIh9tIkLc68cC984sL8GSb" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'VlbnI2djrZXIh9tIkLc68cC984sL8GSb',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

You Searched For "Greg Mankiw" and got 15 results

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