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<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! With the holidays just around the corner, it might not hurt to earn a little extra cash. Four people with side-hustle experience <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/side-hustle-recommendations-passive-income-content-creation-amazon-etsy-2024-10">shared tips on their top gig recommendations</a>.In today's big story, betting on the presidential election is all the rage. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">Can it keep the momentum going</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Blackstone's boss thinks Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finance-ceos-supporting-trump-blackstone-steve-schwarzman-citadel-ken-griffin-2024-10">would be a better president the second time around</a>.</li><li>Tech: Google's earnings <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">were a big hit with investors</a>.</li><li>Business: What a Trump or Harris win <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">means for the cost of housing</a>.</li></ul>But first, wanna bet?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Presidential bets</h2><div type="image" title="Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with dice" height="812" width="1083" msid="114782269" hostid="261" sizebytes="50032"></div>We're less than a week from election day, but one group can already claim victory: betting markets.Platforms allowing users to bet on the US presidential race have become the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">surprise star of election season</a>, writes Business Insider's Matthew Fox. And it could eventually change how we view any potential outcome, not just future elections.Kalshi, which has attracted more than $100 million in election-related bets, is currently one of the most popular apps in the Apple App Store. The trading app Robinhood also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/presidential-election-betting-robinhood-legal-odds-2024-10">got in on the action</a> on Monday.Kalshi's <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/betting-us-election-cftc-kalshi-legal-battle-prediction-market-2024-10">legal victory in October over the CFTC</a> to offer election betting paved the way for the trend. But predictions markets are also spiking abroad where they've existed for years.Polymarket, which is not available to US citizens, has seen $2 billion in wagers this month, up from $533 million in September, according to The Block. Last year, the website averaged less than $20 million in monthly trading volume.The rise of election-betting markets hasn't been without controversy.A "whale" trader betting on former President Donald Trump to win the election grabbed headlines and drew conspiracy theories. Polymarket <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-donald-trump-betting-odds-whale-french-trader-harris-polls-2024-10">confirmed the user was a French national</a> with trading experience betting on Trump "based on personal views of the election."<div type="image" title="A young man in the center of a $100 bill" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114782272" hostid="261" sizebytes="563774"></div>The betting market's biggest tests might come after the election.Supporters of prediction markets say they're <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-harris-prediction-markets-polls-presidential-election-polymarket-024-8">more accurate than traditional polls</a>, citing their ability to quickly adapt to the latest news and the fact participants are invested in the outcome.This election will serve as a good test of that theory, as there's a wide gap between the two approaches. Betting markets have Trump as a heavy favorite, whereas traditional polls indicate a tight race.Should Trump win in a landslide, it could strengthen the case for using betting markets as a key tool for election analysis. Nate Silver, one of the most well-known polling analysts, is already an advisor to Polymarket.But a presidential race only happens once every four years. What about the rest of the time?If the past few years have taught us anything, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gambling-young-men-sports-betting-crypto-meme-stock-market-addiction-2024-4">this country loves to gamble</a>. From crypto to meme stocks to sports, young men, in particular, are happy to bet on just about anything.Prediction markets' business model can lean into that theme. On Kalshi, you can currently wager on whether the Tesla robotaxi will be released before 2026 or if the US will ban TikTok before May.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Why Boeing's $21 billion share sale is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-capital-raise-ecm-bankers-bonuses-wall-street-comp-expert-2024-10">an early Christmas present for Wall Street</a>.</li><li>How Trump vs. Harris is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-political-contributions-by-name-for-trump-vs-harris-2024-8">playing out on Wall Street</a>.</li><li>The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with just one more rate cut this year amid global inflation, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cut-rates-inflation-powell-blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-2024-10">BlackRock CEO says</a>.</li><li>Microsoft just ramped up its cloud rivalry with Google by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-google-shadow-campaigns-cloud-regulation-undermine-business-azure-2024-10">accusing it of 'shadow campaigns'</a>.</li><li>Snap <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/snap-surges-gets-major-boost-from-ai-push-paid-users-2024-10">surges 10%</a> as it gets a major boost from AI and paid subscribers.</li><li>Google's been on an efficiency drive. Its new CFO said it can '<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-earnings-q3-2024-new-cfo-boost-efficiency-2024-10">push a little further</a>.'</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Mark Zuckerberg speaking on stage." height="1600" width="2870" msid="114782278" hostid="261" sizebytes="38034"></div><ol><li>Wall Street has high hopes for Meta. Thanks to the company's AI optimization, analysts generally <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10">expect positive figures</a> from Meta's third-quarter earnings report today. Bank of America has said the stock is a top AI pick, and investors are keeping an eye on AI growth opportunities.</li><li>Citadel's playing the long game with its shorts. Justin Lubell, the hedge fund's global equities head, said the firm's longest-running equities group made more money shorting stocks than its long-term investments in recent years. Lubell said the strategy benefits from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-citadel-focuses-on-shorting-stocks-according-to-justin-lubell-2024-10">the lack of competition on the short side</a>.</li><li>Two of Wall Street's top executives speculate on Trump's bid for a second term. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, who has endorsed Donald Trump, thinks the former president <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/finance-ceos-supporting-trump-blackstone-steve-schwarzman-citadel-ken-griffin-2024-10">would be "efficient and effective" during his second go around</a>. Fellow billionaire and Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin expects Trump to win next week.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="A Linkedin logo sitting on a short stack of applications next to a large stack of applications" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114782270" hostid="261" sizebytes="192558"></div><ol><li>Can LinkedIn save us from hiring hell? The platform wants to help job-seekers apply smarter, not harder, by using AI to optimize the process. The goal is quality over quantity: LinkedIn hopes you'll apply to fewer jobs, but the ones you'll swing for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-broken-linkedin-ai-fix-fewer-jobs-resume-spammers-2024-10">will be better matches</a>.</li><li>Amazon Web Services' Graviton chips are thriving. In 2018, AWS launched Graviton, its own line of homegrown central processing unit chips for data-center servers. Now, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aws-graviton-chips-used-by-90-percent-top-1000-customers-2024-10">90% of AWS's largest server customers have become Graviton users</a>, a company executive told BI.</li><li>Five Apple Intelligence features you can try out now on your iPhone. Some of the highly anticipated AI tools include one that helps summarize long messages, one that limits disruptions, and another that can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-intelligence-features-tested-on-iphone-16-pro-max-2024-10">edit randos out of your photos</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Harris and Trump." height="1600" width="2400" msid="114782274" hostid="261" sizebytes="312674"></div><ol><li>How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact what you pay for housing. Affordable housing is one of America's top economic concerns heading into the election. Here's how each candidate's proposed policies would affect housing supply, first-time home buyers, urban vs. rural housing, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">action against big landlords</a>.</li><li>Alphabet surpassed its third-quarter earnings expectations. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10">Google's parent company delivered beats on revenue</a>, earnings per share, its advertising business, and Google Cloud revenue. The search giant is all-in on AI — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-earnings-q3-2024-new-code-created-by-ai-2024-10">CEO Sundar Pichai said</a> more than a quarter of the company's new code is created by AI and then checked by employees.</li><li>Is X being influenced by Elon Musk or its users? Musk is self-proclaimed "super MAGA." And X, the social media platform he owns, is more likely to show content from right-leaning accounts, according to reports by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal. But it's unclear whether the platform is showing users what they want to see or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-twitter-x-wsj-washington-post-2024-10">what Musk wants them to see</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Q3 economic growth data.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Betting on the election is the hottest new trend. But can prediction markets keep the momentum going?  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 might be stuck in place for the rest of the year, Ed Yardeni says.</li><li>The market vet thinks no more Fed rate cuts are coming until 2025 as the economy stays strong. </li></ul>The stock market could be bumping up against a ceiling for now, market veteran Ed Yardeni said. The longtime investor and president of Yardeni Research said he sees limited capacity for central bankers to cut interest rates, thanks to the strength of the US economy and a troubling outlook for the federal debt balance. That means further policy easing may not come until 2025 — and the S&amp;P 500 could stay stuck around 5,800 through the end of the year, he said in a recent note to clients. That would imply less than a 1% gain for the benchmark index in the next two months. Stocks have already been going "nowhere fast" since the Fed issued a jumbo-sized rate cut in September, Yardeni said. The S&amp;P 500 has climbed 2% since the Fed's last policy meeting, while the S&amp;P 500 equal-weighted index has risen 3.8%."We expect that it might go nowhere fast over the rest of this year too, hovering around 5,800. The outlook for fiscal policy will probably remain unsettling after the election and the Fed might not lower the FFR over the rest of this year after all," Yardeni wrote.Yardeni pointed to strength in recent economic data, which suggests that further rate cuts might not come out of the Fed's meeting this week or in December. For one, real GDP growth was strong in the third quarter, rising 2.8% year-over-year. Business equipment investment rose 11% over the third quarter, following a near-10% increase in the prior quarter. Investment in information processing equipment, in particular, hit a record high, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.<div type="image" title="Graph showing business equipment investment growth" height="794" width="1332" msid="114956591" hostid="261" sizebytes="56966"></div><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11#:~:text=The%20US%20economy%20added%20just,due%20to%20hurricanes%20and%20strikes.">Weakness in the job market</a> has concerned some investors, with the US adding far fewer payrolls than expected in October. Yet, analysts have said the labor market weakness was at least partly the result of events including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-union-iam-endorses-contract-pay-raise-strike-2024-10">union</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworkers-port-strike-ila-impacts-2024-10">strikes</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-helene-unemployment-job-growth-presidential-election-inflation-harris-2024-10">Hurricanes Helene and Milton</a>.Importantly, the unemployment rate remained near a historic low last month at 4.1%."The bond market agrees with our opinion that the Fed cut the FFR too much, too soon," Yardeni added, pointing to the recent rise in bond yields, which indicate higher interest rate expectations among bond investors.Government borrowing, meanwhile, looks poised to increase over the coming months, a factor economists have said could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-problem-explained-deficit-gdp-inflation-economy-interest-rates-2024-4#:~:text=The%20government's%20soaring%20debt%20balance,future%2C%20economists%20told%20Business%20Insider.">indirectly fuel inflation</a>, and therefore limit the Fed's ability to cut rates."What can we expect when the current debt limit suspension ends on January 2? A divided government could force the Treasury to use extraordinary measures (as it did early last year) to fund the government while Congress debates the ever-increasing debt limit. It may take a debt crisis in the bond market to rein in Washington's fiscal excesses," Yardeni said.Yardeni has warned clients before about the possibility that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10">no further rate cuts</a> are delivered by the Fed in 2024. However, most investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week and cut by the same amount in December, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>. Some forecasters have even floated another <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-fed-rate-cut-forecast-jumbo-unemployment-labor-market-citi-2024-11">jumbo-sized rate cut</a> this year as the labor market could be weaker than it appears on the surface.

Stocks might 'go nowhere' for the rest of this year amid Fed uncertainty and US debt concerns, market vet says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market is in shambles on Friday, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%.</li><li>Investors are digesting a series of weaker-than-expected data points and questioning the Fed.</li></ul>The US stock market has plunged into chaos as investors digest a streak of negative economic data and disappointing mega-cap-tech earnings.All three major US indexes were down more than 2% at 12 p.m. in New York, with tech and small-cap shares taking the biggest hit. The moves continued a market-wide skid that started on Thursday. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> has now slid 4% in just two days, while the tech-heavy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite">Nasdaq Composite</a> is down 5% over the period and flirting with correction territory.The sell-off began gathering momentum on Thursday amid a slew of weak data points. Jobless claims climbed near a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-11-month-high-2024-08-01/">one-year high</a>, while manufacturing data came in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-manufacturing-gauge-drops-eight-month-low-2024-08-01/">well below estimates</a>. Investors became even more discouraged after Thursday's closing bell after disappointing earnings reports from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-stock-amzn-quarterly-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-7">Amazon</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/intc-stock">Intel</a>. Amazon missed its second-quarter sales forecast and issued light guidance for the third quarter. Intel, meanwhile, announced plans to cut 15,000 workers and gave a dismal growth forecast. Its stock plunged as much as 30%, the biggest single-day decline since at least 1982.Stock futures were already deeply in the red on Friday morning. Then investors really seemed to throw in the towel after the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-today-july-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-increase-2024-8">jobs report</a>. The economy added 61,000 fewer jobs than expected in July, and unemployment unexpectedly spiked to 4.3%, triggering a widely followed recession indicator called the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-indicator-fed-rate-cuts-labor-unemployment-contraction-2024-6">Sahm Rule</a>.The sell-off seems to be signaling a shift in how investors are interpreting weak economic data. Months ago, signs of a slowing economy would bolster expectations for Fed rate cuts, which are seen as rocket fuel for stocks.But with a cut now being priced in with certainty in September, investors are wondering whether the economy is weakening too rapidly."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-bad-good-news-stock-market-inflation-recession-fed-2024-3">Bad news is no longer good news</a> for stocks," John Lynch, the chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management, said in a statement on Friday. "Pressure will escalate on the Federal Reserve as market interest rates will continue the attempt to force their hand."Some are even questioning whether the Fed miscalculated and made a mistake with its path of rate cuts."Oh dear, has the Fed made a policy mistake? The labor market's slowdown is now materializing with more clarity," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management said, noting that job gains have dropped below levels typical of a "solid economy."She added: "A September rate cut is in the bag and the Fed will be hoping they haven't, once again, been too slow to act."New York Fed economists are pricing in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf">56% chance the economy could enter a recession</a> by June of next year.Meanwhile, rate-cut forecasts on Wall Street have gotten far more dovish over the past few days. Bets on a 50 basis-point rate reduction in September have jumped to 75%, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>. That's way up from the 12% odds from a week ago. Basically, the consensus has shifted from a 25-basis-point move to 50 in a matter of days."This is further proof that the economy is slowing, which has many worried the Fed is now firmly behind the eight ball," Ryan Detrick, the Carson Group's chief market strategist, said in a note. "It is becoming clear that the Fed should be more worried about the economy than inflation, which is increasing the chances of a 50-basis-point cut in September."

Why the stock market is going berserk today

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Top brokerages had some outages on Monday morning, according to Downdetector.</li><li>Fidelity told Business Insider that the issues had been resolved.</li></ul>Some top brokerage firms were hit by online outages Monday as the global market continued its melt down, according to user reports.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://downdetector.com/">Downdetector</a>, which tracks user reports of outages across the web, noted spikes in issues with brokerages, including Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, TD Ameritrade, E-trade, and Interactive Brokers.Users on social media wrote Monday morning that they weren't able to get into their accounts.Fidelity confirmed to Business Insider that some customers experienced issues Monday morning, but they had since been resolved.But Steve Sanders, EVP of Marketing and Product Development at Interactive Brokers, said the firm didn't know of any "wide outages.""As of 11 a.m. ET we have 5 million trades," he told BI. "Friday we had 5.9 million all day, which was already a busy day."None of the other firms immediately responded to requests for comment from BI. As of 11:30 a.m. ET, many of the reports of outages for the brokerages had died down, according to Downdetector.It's not clear what caused the outages or how widespread they were; Some, like GOP firebrand <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1820467646426382576">Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green,</a> immediately suggested without evidence that the outages were intentional."Go ahead, call me a conspiracy theorist, I could care less," Green wrote.The Dow <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nasdaq-crash-tech-recession-global-stock-market-rout-accelerates-japan-2024-8?_gl=1*26jjyd*_ga*NDY1MTcxOTk0LjE3MDc3NTY5ODg.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyMjg2MzM3Mi4xNDYuMS4xNzIyODcxNTY3LjU3LjAuMA..">plunged more than 1,000 points</a> on Monday as fears of a global recession deepened.The decline in markets around the world followed poor earnings reports by major tech players <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-prices-rising-shoppers-cautious-economy-outlook-earnings-2024-8">like Amazon</a>, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">weak US jobs report</a>, and the sudden strengthening of the yen in Japan.Traders are now <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-recession-outlook-economy-job-market-interest-rates-2024-8">pinning their hopes</a> on an emergency interest rate cut by the Fed, which rarely makes such moves outside scheduled policy meetings.

Some top brokerages reportedly go down as the market tanks

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Fed could cut 125 basis points by the end of the year, says Citi economist Robert Sockin.</li><li>Sockin said the Fed will be especially aggressive if employment data weakens further.</li></ul>With sluggish unemployment, the Federal Reserve could cut rates more aggressively than markets are pricing in, according to Citi senior economist Robert Sockin. Citi expects 125 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of the year, Sockin said in a Thursday interview with Yahoo Finance."Our US team is looking for them to start off with 50 basis points and another 50 after that. So they actually have 125 basis points for this year from the Fed," he said, suggesting an additional 25 basis point cut at the Fed's December meeting.Sockin said that the bank's forecast is based on an evolving labor-market picture and a rising unemployment rate. "It's still concerning how much the unemployment rate has moved up. And so from a risk management perspective, that might lead the Fed to be a bit more aggressive in its initial moves, especially if they think there's a high risk that the economy is slowing down sharply," he said.The unemployment rate saw a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">surprise increase in July</a>, rising to 4.3% from 4.1% in June, and jobless claims have declined in recent weeks, but only slightly. Last week's claims fell to 231,000 from a year-to-date high of 250,000 at the end of July, according to Labor Department data.Sockin said the Fed's rate cuts will be especially aggressive if there continues to be weak unemployment data."We'll see how the next employment report comes in. I think if the unemployment rate moves up from here, it's going to be very hard for them not to move more aggressively," he said of the Fed.Investors are expecting a 25 basis point cut in September, with lower odds for a 50 basis point cut, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.At the Fed's Jackson Hole conference last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-are-coming-federal-reserve-jackson-hole-powell-2024-8">indicated the Fed is ready to cut rates</a> in September."The time has come for policy to adjust," he said. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."He suggested the Fed will continue focusing on its dual mandate—targeting 2% inflation and stimulating employment —as it looks to loosen monetary policy.

The Fed will go bigger with rate cuts than markets think, Citi economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>More than half of the stock market's post-Trump-election rally has been erased.</li><li>The turning point came Thursday, when Fed Chair Powell said the central bank will take its time cutting rates.</li></ul>And just like that, half of the stock market's euphoric post-Trump-election gain is gone.Major US indexes sold off sharply on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way, as investors came to terms with the fact that they may not get a December rate cut as previously expected.The turning point came on Thursday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he and the central bank are in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-federal-reserve-inflation-jerome-powell-interest-rates-2024-10">no hurry to cut rates</a>, given the positive signals being sent by the economy.Stocks turned lower in afternoon trading, and that pressure continued through Friday. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> fell as much as 1.6%, and has now given back more than half of its torrid 4% post-election gain. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite">Nasdaq Composite</a> dropped 2.7% at intraday lows.The S&amp;P 500 fell 2.2% this week, while the Dow Jones industrial average lost 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 3.2%.The losses have come as the odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have fallen. Investors are now pricing in a 58% probability of one at the next meeting, down from around 80% before Powell's address, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>.The comments from the central-bank head come amid a promising streak of US economic data. On Friday, retail-sales data showed signs of strength, and on Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-trump-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-inflation-data-2024-11">jobless-claims figures</a> came in surprisingly light.Stock investors have been grappling with what Trump will ultimately mean for the market now that the dust is settling on a buy-everything rush. Concerns have been raised around whether Trump's protectionist trade policies will drive inflation higher, possibly necessitating eventual rate hikes.Until now, investors had seemed content to focus on Trump plan to cut taxes and deregulate. But it now seems that Jerome Powell has given them something else to think — and worry — about.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,870.62, down 1.3%</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,444.99, down 0.7% (306 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,680.12, down 2.2%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-stock-market-impact-chart-analysis-bonds-crypto-2024-11">5 charts</a> that show Trump's immense post-election market impact, from BofA.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/health-stocks-trump-appointment-vaccines-rfk-moderna-2024-11">Health stocks slid</a> after Trump appoints vaccine-skeptic RFK Jr.</li><li>UBS says Trump's plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-housing-plan-federal-lands-tax-incentives-mortgage-rates-ubs-2024-11">build homes on federal land</a> could push housing prices higher.</li><li>The oil market faces a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11">deep surplus next year</a> amid weak Chinese and demand record US production, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> slid 2.5% to $67.01 a barrel</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 2% to $71.11 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> slid 0.2% to $2,567.60 an ounce.</li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years?miRedirects=1">10-year Treasury yield</a> rose less than one basis point to 4.44%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 3.5% to $91,271.20.</li></ul>

The stock market's Trump honeymoon is turning sour

<ul><li>The global foldable smartphone shipments have declined by 1% in Q3 2024.</li><li>Samsung has emerged as the top company in foldable smartphone shipments in Q3 2024.</li><li>Samsung continues to account for over half of the market share, despite a huge decline in shipments.</li></ul>The global foldable smartphone shipments declined for the first time in Q1 2024, recording a 1% year-on-year decline. This marks the first decline for foldable smartphones in Q3. According to a report by Counterpoint Research, one of the factors for the decline in shipments was Samsung’s<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-review/articleshow/112497472.cms"> Galaxy Z Fold 6</a> and<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-galaxy-z-flip-6-galaxy-ring-and-more-launched/articleshow/111637913.cms"> Galaxy Z Flip 6</a> smartphones not performing as expected. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112497472" title="Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 review – the complete package" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> “The global foldable market appears to have entered a transitionary phase where it is facing challenges as it progresses from a niche segment to the mainstream. User satisfaction is particularly high with book-type foldable devices, but the prohibitively high prices remain the biggest obstacle to mass adoption,” said Jene Park, Senior Analyst, Counterpoint Research. <h2>Global foldable smartphone market share</h2> <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#000000;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Company </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#000000;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q3 2024 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Samsung </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">56% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Huawei </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">15% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Honor </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Motorola </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Xiaomi </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td></tr></tbody></table> Source: Counterpoint Research Samsung has emerged as the market leader in Q3 2024, with a market share of 56%, down from 70% in Q3 2023. While the company’s Galaxy Z Fold 6 performed decently, the Galaxy Z Flip 6 failed to match its predecessor’s sales. The company recorded a 21% year-on-year decline in shipments. Huawei has emerged second, with a 15% market share in Q3 2024, up from a 13% market share in Q3 2023. The company recorded a 23% year-on-year growth in shipments. Honor and Motorola take the third and fourth spots, with a 10% and a 7% market share respectively. Both companies have recorded good growth. While Honor has recorded a 121% year-on-year growth, Motorola has recorded a 164% year-on-year growth. Xiaomi is in the fifth position, with a 6% market share. The company recorded the highest year-on-year growth at 185%. This growth was driven by the Mix Flip, the company’s first clamshell smartphone. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/honda-activa-e-and-qc1-electric-scooters-unveiled-in-india-to-go-on-sale-in-2025/articleshow/115725242.cms">Honda Activa e and QC1 electric scooters unveiled in India, to go on sale in 2025</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-pc-market-reaches-new-high-with-4-49-million-shipments-in-q3-2024/articleshow/115719599.cms">India’s PC market reaches new high with 4.49 million shipments in Q3 2024</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-gt-7-pro-with-snapdragon-8-elite-chipset-launched-starting-at-59999/articleshow/115689685.cms">Realme GT 7 Pro with Snapdragon 8 Elite chipset launched starting at ₹59,999</a>

Global foldable phone shipments decline in Q3 2024, Samsung leads with 56% market share

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks jumped on Tuesday, led by tech as Palantir stock helped the Nasdaq climb 1.4%. </li><li>Traders are eyeing the result of the US presidential election. </li></ul>US indexes surged Tuesday as a jump in tech stocks pulled indexes higher as traders headed toward the end of the US presidential election. A record earnings report from <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pltr-stock">Palantir</a> helped push tech higher, with the stock soaring 23.5% to close at $51.15. The data software company delivered a record profit while showcasing high demand for its artificial intelligence products. Other tech leaders also ended higher, with Nvidia jumping almost 3% such as Nvidia and Tesla closing 3.5% higher.Nvidia's rally on Tuesday helped the chip titan surpass Apple as the world's most valuable company by market cap, at $3.42 trillion versus Apple's valuation of $3.38 trillion. The S&amp;P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by almost 430 points.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,782.76, up 1.23%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,221.88, up 1.02% (+427.28 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,439.17, up 1.43%</li></ul>As voters flocked to the polls, Wall Street is on edge for the possibility of an uncertain election outcome following the conclusion of the vote.Some popular Trump trades rose throughout the day, with bitcoin and shares of Trump Media rising in anticipation of a potential Republican win. Treasurys yields edged slightly lower, with the 10-year bond dipping two basis points to 4.289%.On Wednesday, Wall Street's focus will quickly shift from the presidential race to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html"> Futures markets</a> indicate a 98.2% chance the central bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/super-micro-computer-stock-delisting-risk-this-month-november-smci-2024-11?_gl=1*567hsv*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MDQzLjU5LjAuMA..">Super Micro Computer faces delisting from the Nasdaq as it comes up against a compliance deadline. </a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-stock-market-outlook-best-case-scenario-congress-gridlock-2024-11?_gl=1*11y3l5j*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM3OTIxLjYwLjAuMA..">A divided Congress would be the best-case outcome for stocks, JPMorgan says.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/election-bear-market-us-economy-stock-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-11?_gl=1*1rj5c60*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM3OTgxLjYwLjAuMA..">There's an 18% chance that stocks are heading toward a post-election bear market,</a> Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-to-buy-recession-investing-strategy-defensive-economy-outlook-money-2024-11?_gl=1*1936m0t*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MTM0LjYwLjAuMA..">A warning signal in the economy is telling investors to load up on defensive stocks, research firm says.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-gas-ukraine-war-budget-moscow-crude-prices-2024-11?_gl=1*1yvzx3u*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MzA1LjYwLjAuMA..">Volatile crude prices send Russian oil revenue down 28% in October.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 0.99% to $72.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.81% to $75.69 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> increased by 0.18% to $2,751.2 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 4.289%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> jumped 2.82% to $69,401.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech leads indexes higher as markets head toward the result of the US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets celebrated Donald Trump's election victory on Wednesday.</li><li>The Dow soared by more than 1,400 points. Bank stocks, tech shares and bitcoin rallied in the session.</li></ul>US stocks embarked on a major rally on Wednesday as traders took in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump's election win</a>.Major indexes soared to fresh records, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 1,500 points during the session.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">Bond yields surged</a> as investors eyed the potential for inflation and interest rates to rise again in another Trump term. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury spiked 14 basis points to 4.431%.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,929.05, up 2.53%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,729.93, up 3.57% (+ 1,508.05 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,983.46, up 2.95%</li></ul>Traders piled into assets they see <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">benefitting under a Trump presidency</a>, with markets eyeing an agenda of deregulation and lower taxes benefiting US corporations.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">Bank stocks</a> soared during the day, with Bank of America and Citigroup more than 8%, JPMorgan up 11%, and shares of Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs each up 13%.Tesla <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-win-elon-musk-election-tsla-2024-11">climbed almost 15%</a> to trade at its highest level in over two years. Investors see Elon Musk and his companies among the election winners after the CEO strongly backed Trump during his campaign.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-soars-crypto-president-donald-trumps-election-betting-odds-2024-10">Bitcoin jumped to a fresh record high</a>, climbing above $75,000 for the first time ever. Investors see Trump as the first "crypt president"," hoping that his term will boost digital assets after he courted the market during his campaign.Wall Street will focus on the Fed's policy meeting on Thursday. Central bankers are expected to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">cut rates another 25 basis points</a> on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point cut in December. However, rate cut expectations are starting to ease as investors consider potentially higher inflation under another Trump term."As a result, the Fed rate cut on Thursday may be the last cut, since the Fed does not like to fight market rates," Louis Navellier, the chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a note on Wednesday, pointing to higher Treasury yields."As we move into 2025, we believe it's possible that we only see two or three cuts for the year depending on the mix of policy and growth that plays out," Yung-Yu Ma, the CIO of BMO Wealth Management, added.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-soars-record-valuation-overtakes-apple-nvda-ai-2024-11">Nvidia stock hit a record high</a>, solidifying its position as the world's most valuable company.</li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-48-million-profits-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">polymarket whale that bet big on Donald Trump's victory</a> banked $48 million on Wednesday.</li><li>There are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11?_gl=1*1culf3a*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDkxNjYxMC41MjguMS4xNzMwOTE5MTMyLjM0LjAuMA..">three post-election reasons why stocks are bound to rise</a> through the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/ukraine-bonds-trump-wins-us-election-russia-war-zelenskyy-2024-11">Ukraine bonds jumped after Trump's win</a> amid his vows to help end the war in Ukraine.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped slightly to $71.89 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, edged lower by 0.5% to $75.14 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slumped 2.85% to $2,665.64 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 13 basis points to 4.426%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 9.31% to $75,742.</li></ul>

Stock market euphoric over Trump win

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Generative AI is a bubble, according to Signal President Meredith Whittaker.</li><li>Whittaker said Nvidia's market cap will eventually drop, signaling a slowdown in the AI industry.</li></ul>The mad sprint to develop generative AI has been given several labels: A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/david-solomon-ai-is-not-a-bubble-its-a-trend-2024-8">long-term opportunity</a>, for some, or an "arms race." For others, however, it's a bubble that may be short-lived."I think this generative AI moment is definitely a bubble," Meredith Whittaker, the president of messaging app Signal, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wired.com/story/meredith-whittaker-signal/">told Wired</a>. "You cannot spend a billion dollars per training run when you need to do multiple training runs and then launch a fucking email-writing engine. Something is wrong there."In other words, Whittaker thinks the industry will hit a point when the amount of money being funneled into it isn't reflected in its output.Earlier this month, the stock market revealed some concern among investors as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-amazon-alphabet-spend-big-ai-investors-concerned-roi-2024-8">Big Tech spent billions</a> on AI while showing little promise of return. Investors, however, continue to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-competition-investor-anxiety-talent-retention-microsoft-meta-google-2024-8">pour money into OpenAI</a>, the industry's leader, even as its top researchers leave, citing concerns that the company is moving too aggressively toward artificial general intelligence.Whittaker is unsure when the bubble might finally burst, but she's betting that Nvidia, the American chipmaker fueling much of the development in AI, will reflect the first signs."I do think you're going to see a market drawdown. Nvidia's market cap is going to die for a second," she said. Nvidia's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-alphabet-amazon-magnificent-seven-charts-2024-2">market capitalization</a> surpassed both Amazon and Alphabet earlier this year, and is now a little over $3 trillion, <a target="_blank" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/">according to Yahoo Finance</a>.Either way, she said regulation of the AI industry will be critical."Things like structural separation, where we begin to separate ownership of the infrastructure from the application layer, would perturb these businesses," she said. "I think meaningful privacy regulations could go a long way." These include tamping down on the amount of data companies can collect and their authority over how it'll be used to shape the world.Her point is that the AI bubble should not preclude us from regulating the ills of surveillance capitalism. "There's nothing natural about the paradigm that exists," she said.

Signal president says generative AI is 'definitely a bubble' and Nvidia's market is going to 'die for a second'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market is headed for a disappointing few months. </li><li>Stocks are more likely to post flat or negative returns by the end of the year, two investing vets told BI.</li></ul>It's about to be a cruel summer for investors, with the market likely to flatline or undergo a correction over the coming months, Wall Street veterans speaking with Business Insider predicted. David Morrison, a market analyst at Trade Nation, is dubious about the latest rally in stocks, with the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-record-high-inflation-april-cpi-report-2024-05" target="_blank" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-record-close-fed-speakers-meme-stocks-economy-2024-5">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> both hovering near records following a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-food-energy-gas-prices-consumer-price-index-2024-5#:~:text=US%20inflation%20saw%20some%20moderation%20in%20April.&amp;text=Inflation%20in%20the%20US%20is,2023%20to%20this%20past%20April.">cooler April inflation reading</a>. The rally in itself is problematic for stocks, he warned, as they're already so expensive that it's hard to imagine the market moving higher from here. He sees the benchmark index being prone to multiple sharp corrections of at least 10%, ending the year around 4,500."The next move will be down, rather than up," Morrison said.The view puts him at odds with the growing number of bulls in the market who see an eventual rate cut from the Federal Reserve as a strong positive catalyst. However, Morrison thinks the Fed's first rate cut could easily be postponed another three months—meaning no cut this summer or possibly no cuts at all this year. All it would take is one hot inflation reading to dash the prospect of Fed rate cuts this year altogether, he said. "Investors are suffering from a large dose of FOMO, and I'm concerned that we could be in the process of a blow-off top with echoes of the moves seen back in early 2020," Morrison told BI, pointing to the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-pandemic-stock-market-crash-inflation-recession-rates-ai-2024-2#:~:text=Frightened%20investors%20dumped%20stocks%20in,10%25%20for%20four%20consecutive%20months.">pandemic stock crash</a>. "I think the air up here is quite thin. While there's no obvious catalyst for a sell-off, it's hard to discern what could help to lift equities much higher from here."Will McGough, the director of investments at Prime Capital Investment Advisors, sees the S&amp;P 500 ending the year basically flat to where it's currently trading. Stocks are already so expensive, and the Fed has no urgent need to lower interest rates. Rates have hovered between 4%-5% in the past without causing a recession, he noted."It's getting everybody used to how things should be versus the way things have been," he said of interest rates, suggesting steep rate cuts aren't in the cards. Investors are also facing a slew of obstacles in the back half of the year that will prevent stocks from moving higher, Morrison and McGough both warned.The US economy faces a decent chance of recession over the next year, Morrison said. He pegs the odds of a hard-landing at around 60%, similar to the New York Fed, which sees a <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf">50% chance the economy could tip into a downturn</a> within the next 12 months.A number of recession indicators have already been sounding the alarm for the US economy. The 2-10 Treasury yield curve, the bond market's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-yield-curve-inversion-economy-hard-landing-indicator-stocks-2024-4#:~:text=Dietrich%20pointed%20to%20the%20inverted,exclusively%20to%20Business%20Insider%20subscribers.">notoriously accurate recession indicator</a>, has been inverted since July 2022, which is one of the biggest indicators that a recession is on the way, Morrison said.Economic growth already is starting to slow. GDP slowed to just 1.6% over the first quarter, while key sectors of the economy, like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-job-market-hard-landing-gdp-growth-2024-5">manufacturing</a>, have been contracting for months on end. "I think it's going to become a lot rockier as we go along. And I think we should also be prepared to see some nasty aggressive selloff along the way," Morrison said.While McGough thinks a recession is unlikely, he sees more volatility in the second half of the year, especially ahead of the presidential election in November."Political volatility is, in itself… going to trip over stock market volatility," McGough warned.Other strategists have also warned of a rocky road ahead for stocks. More extreme forecasters have predicted a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-predictions-recession-soon-inflation-corporate-profits-decline-2024-5">market crash as steep as 65%</a>, as equities mirror previous bubbles. "Have fun this summer. You're probably going to come back without the material move one way or the other," McGough said.

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