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India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

Mumbai: India is on track to becoming the <keyword id="20432305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="third-largest-economy" source="keywords">third-largest economy</keyword> by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> said in a report on Thursday. The report also said that with 8.2 per cent growth rate in FY2024, continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting <keyword id="20423043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector-investment" source="keywords">private sector investment</keyword>, and reducing reliance on public capital. It said equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation, and foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated. To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline, said the first edition of 'India Forward: Emerging Perspectives' report. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, it added. Noting that India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels, balancing energy security with its energy transition plans, the report stated that agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it added. The <keyword id="23234467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-research" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global India Research</keyword> Chapter's inaugural study was launched here on Thursday.

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

Davos, The proportion of CEOs who believe global economic growth will improve over the next 12 months has more than doubled since last year, the annual <keyword id="20211002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pwc-global-ceo-survey" source="keywords">PwC Global CEO Survey</keyword> showed on Monday. The survey, released on the first day of the <keyword id="20020435" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-economic-forum" source="keywords">World Economic Forum</keyword> Annual Meeting here, also showed that almost half of CEOs do not believe their businesses will be viable in a decade amid acceleration of technology and climate pressures. The survey, which interviewed over 4,700 CEOs across 105 countries and territories, found that 38 per cent of CEOs are optimistic about global economic growth prospects in the next one year, up from 18 per cent in 2023. CEOs' expectations of economic decline have also tumbled from a record high of 73 per cent in the 2023 survey to 45 per cent. Despite ongoing conflicts, the proportion of CEOs who felt their company is highly or extremely exposed to geopolitical conflict risk fell 7 percentage points to 18 per cent. CEOs in most regions of the world were found to be more likely to be optimistic about domestic economic prospects than pessimistic, but <keyword id="19905008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="north-america" source="keywords">North America</keyword> and <keyword id="20055122" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="western-europe" source="keywords">Western Europe</keyword> bucked the trend. CEOs overwhelmingly see generative AI as a catalyst for reinvention that will power efficiency, innovation and transformational change, the survey said. At the same time, a great majority of CEOs said they will require workforce upskilling to reap the transformative benefits of generative AI. "This year's data suggests a high degree of CEO uncertainty ahead, but CEOs are taking action. They are transforming their business models, investing in technology and their people and managing the risks and opportunities presented by the climate transition," PwC Global Chair <keyword id="20205687" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bob-moritz" source="keywords">Bob Moritz</keyword> said. If businesses are to thrive over the short and long term, build trust, and deliver sustained and long-term value, they must accelerate the pace of reinvention, he said while releasing the survey results.

Economic optimism doubles but tech, climate pressures accelerate: PwC CEO survey

The Indian <keyword id="46964" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="it-sector" source="Orion">IT sector</keyword>, which has seen contraction in <keyword id="6357342" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hiring" source="Orion">hiring</keyword> amid <keyword id="61483" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-slowdown" source="Orion">global economic slowdown</keyword> and <keyword id="6412154" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="funding-winter" source="Orion">funding winter</keyword>, is likely to witness a positive turnaround with 8-10 per cent increase in hiring in 2024, a new report showed on Wednesday. Overall, the hiring in the IT sector is expected to surge by 12-15 per cent in CY 2024, especially due to the surge in global capabilities centres (GCCs) and global economy settling down comparatively, according to talent solution company NLB Services. "From a quarter perspective, the initial quarter will notice an average 8-10 per cent growth in hiring, followed by Q2 and Q4 demand percentage rising up to 12-14 per cent," said Sachin Alug, CEO, NLB Services. The IT sector has been estimated to have witnessed a growth of 40-45 per cent of jobs in 2023 as compared to 2022. In 2024, hiring is further expected to surge by 15-20 per cent. Owing to global recession and shift in business synergies, the Indian IT sector witnessed a dip during the initial quarters of this year. In fact, in Q1 FY24, IT witnessed the sharpest contraction in headcount in the last three years as companies were experiencing the heat of the <keyword id="29405" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="Orion">slowdown</keyword> in projects, according to the report. "However, the third quarter of this fiscal year is bringing a favourable outlook. Promising prospects are foreseen in green technology, electric vehicles, and an increased emphasis on AI and cybersecurity," Alug informed. In Q2 FY24, the key IT firms reported a 3-10 per cent average increase in their net profits. The positive growth trajectory was largely influenced by IT players securing strong new wins, expanding multi-year renewals with existing clients, and growing investment into technology, etc. "Despite the initial slowdown some of the skill sets which continued to shine in prominence in this segment included software development (with 28 per cent demand), SAP expertise (12 per cent demand), automotive design (14 per cent demand), and testing skills (12 per cent demand). "Some of the most in-demand IT skills next year are expected to include AI/ML experts, DevOps specialists, full-stack developers, cybersecurity experts, Blockchain developers, Cloud architects, UI/UX designers and so on. "Overall hiring in the IT sector is expected to surge by 12-15 per cent in CY 2024, especially due to the surge in global capabilities centres (GCCs) and global economy settling down comparatively," said Alug.

Hiring in Indian IT sector likely to see turnaround with 8-10% growth in 2024

Corporate <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> reported the strongest <keyword id="6357342" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="hiring" source="Orion">hiring</keyword> sentiments globally for the next three months, with 37 per cent of employers planning to increase their staff strength as businesses are bullish about the country's economic position, a survey said on Tuesday. According to the ManpowerGroup <keyword id="6355127" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment" source="Orion">Employment</keyword> <keyword id="20206852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="outlook" source="keywords">Outlook</keyword> Survey Q4, 2024, of nearly 3,150 employers across sectors and regions, the <keyword id="20449001" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-employment-outlook" source="keywords">Net Employment Outlook</keyword> in India is the strongest worldwide at 37 per cent, followed by Costa Rica (36 per cent) and the US (34 per cent) in the second and third place respectively. The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who anticipate reductions to staffing levels from those who plan to hire. The India employment outlook for Q4 (October-December) stood at 37 per cent, up 7 per cent from Q3 2024, and unchanged when compared with the same time last year. "The hiring intention of employers signifies the positive outlook in the country's economic position that has been reinforced by exports as a result of multilateral foreign policies and large-scale infrastructure development. Coupled with this, is our demographic advantage that is expected to boost our competitiveness in the global market," said <keyword id="20933727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sandeep-gulati" source="keywords">Sandeep Gulati</keyword>, Managing Director, <keyword id="20841782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manpowergroup-india" source="keywords">ManpowerGroup India</keyword> and Middle East. According to the survey, employers across all sectors report net positive hiring intentions with the financial and real estate industry having the strongest outlook of 47 per cent, followed by information technology (46 per cent), industrials and materials (36 per cent) and consumer goods and services (35 per cent). The least optimistic prospects were witnessed in the communication services (28 per cent). The survey further noted that the Northern region of India continues to dominate the job demand with an outlook of 41 per cent followed by the West (39 per cent). Gulati further noted that "India is expected to focus on its high domestic consumption, economy-booster government schemes, increasing demand for outsourcing services and manufacturing boom. "With increased focus on skill development to meet market demands, India may be able to reduce unemployment and fasten the pace of economic development by creating a more capable and adaptable workforce that meets the needs of the emerging industries." Hiring managers across the Asia-Pacific countries anticipate the second strongest regional Outlook at 27 per cent, an increase of 4 per cent from the previous quarter but decreased when compared to the same time last year. India, Singapore, and China continue to report the strongest employment outlooks in the region. The most cautious employment outlooks were reported by employers in Hong Kong (8 per cent). Survey responses were collected from July 1-31, 2024, and 40,340 employers across 42 countries were asked about their fourth-quarter hiring intentions.

Indian employers most bullish globally on Oct-Dec quarter hiring: survey

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors are too optimistic about the near-term prospects of AI, Vanguard said.</li><li>Firms would need to growth profit by 40% annually for the next three years to match valuations, the firm said.</li></ul>With tech companies still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-gpt5-gpt4-expectations-ai-2024-7">pushing the boundaries</a> of artificial intelligence, market excitement for it seems endless.But this enthusiasm expects too much from the technology in too little time, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/economic-payoff-ai-coming-but-not-here-yet.html">Vanguard</a> wrote on Thursday.Wall Street is rife with upbeat forecasts about what AI could do to the economy and corporate profits. Most of them are pinned to a US workplace revolution and a productivity boom.That optimism has helped fuel strong stock gains, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 up 18% year-to-date through Thursday.But Vanguard global chief economist Joe Davis thinks expectations are too high, and says that stocks are overvalued even if the AI boom plays out as anticipated.He estimates that US corporate profits would have to growth by 40% annually over the next three years to justify where stocks are trading now. For context, the S&amp;P 500's trailing one-year earnings growth rate through the second quarter of 2024 was 10.9%, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_081624.pdf">FactSet data</a>."I'm optimistic about the long-term potential of artificial intelligence to power big increases in worker productivity and economic growth," global chief economist Joe Davis wrote. "But I'm pessimistic that AI can justify lofty equity valuations or save us from an economic soft patch this year or next."He continued: "This is double the annualized rate of the 1920s, when electricity lit up the nation — not to mention economic output and corporate income statements."Such a historic surge in corporate performance looks even less probable if the economy cools down next year. Vanguard expects GDP to expand by just 1% to 1.5% in 2025.It's not that the investment firm has no faith in AI's potential — its research suggests 45% to 55% odds that AI will trigger a boom in labor productivity. Between 2028 and 2040, that could spur a 3.1% annualized rate of US growth in real terms.But investors need to let go of any notions that this will happen immediately, Davis said. While firms have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-big-tech-spending-on-ai-investments-2024-7">poured billions to advance</a> their position in the sector, some market players are incorrect in thinking that AI investing will reach $1 trillion in the near term:"$1 trillion in AI investment by 2025 would require 286% growth. That's probably not going to happen, which means we're unlikely to experience an AI-driven economic boom in 2025," he said.Some on Wall Street are much more pessimistic. BlackRock has said there's a strong chance that heavy AI investing will trigger <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/artificial-intelligence-ai-inflation-productivity-boom-interest-rates-fed-blackrock-2024-6">higher inflation</a> before any production boom can come. That could erode corporate profit growth.

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Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

BI India Bureau

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

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Economic optimism doubles but tech, climate pressures accelerate: PwC CEO survey

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Hiring in Indian IT sector likely to see turnaround with 8-10% growth in 2024

IANS

Indian employers most bullish globally on Oct-Dec quarter hiring: survey

PTI

US stocks are overvalued because of unrealistic expectations for AI-powered economic growth, Vanguard says

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