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India is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2024-25, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said in a press conference after the tabling of the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the Parliament on Monday. The Economic Survey tabled today projected India to grow at 6.5-7.0 per cent in 2024-25. Global institutions, including <keyword id="19896779" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IMF" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IMF" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IMF">IMF</keyword>, OECD, World Bank, S&amp;P, ADB, and Fitch, have projected India to grow in a range of 6.6-7.2 per cent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest outlook, has raised India's growth projections for 2024 from 6.8 per cent earlier to 7 per cent, with the country maintaining the fastest-growing status in emerging markets and developing economies. According to official data of the Indian government, the country's GDP grew at an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24. India's economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 respectively. Further, the CEA in his press conference projected that India's <keyword id="20089672" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="per-capita-income" source="keywords">per capita income</keyword> is expected to increase from around Rs 2 lakh in 2022-23 to Rs 14.9 lakh in 2046-47. Further, CEA said <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> of Indians in physical assets have been increasing over the past three financial years through 2023-24. The CEA, addressing the press conference, said household savings in physical assets rose from 8 per cent in 2020-21 to 12.9 per cent in 2022-23. "Households are not in distress, they are investing in <keyword id="20792385" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-assets" source="keywords">financial assets</keyword> that have done very well. Financial assets of households are not marked to market so households are doing quite well in the aggregate," he said. India needs both banks and capital markets to provide the required finances sourced from a sustained high level of household savings, according to the Survey. <keyword id="20385790" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister" source="keywords">Union Finance Minister</keyword> Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday tabled the economic survey in Parliament, a day ahead of the full Budget presentation for 2024-25. The Economic Survey document, prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance and formulated under the supervision of the chief economic adviser, gives insights into the state of the economy and various indicators of 2023-24 (April-March) and some outlook for the current year. The Economy Survey document also gave some idea about the tone and texture of the actual Budget for 2024-25, to be presented on Tuesday. (ANI)

India to remain fastest growing major economy in 2024-25, says CEA Nageswaran

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19935006" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Guyana" source="keywords">Guyana</keyword>, the tiny South American nation, plans to give $500 to every citizen aged 18 and over.</li><li>Its president said the <keyword id="21044249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cash-payments" source="keywords">cash payments</keyword> aim to narrow disparities and help with higher living costs.</li></ul>The world's fastest-growing economy is giving the equivalent of $500 to each of its adult citizens as it works to share its newfound oil wealth and soften the sting of higher living costs. President <keyword id="21170274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mohamed-Irfaan-Ali" source="keywords">Mohamed Irfaan Ali</keyword> of Guyana, the South American country with just 800,000 people, announced the move last week and said his government would begin distributing the cash immediately. He previously said each household would receive the Guyanese-dollar equivalent of $1,000, but switched to an individual payment after locals raised concerns about how a household would be defined and how the money would be shared within each home. "This is how we are promoting prosperity, ownership, distribution of wealth," Ali said. "This is how the resources and revenue of this country are being spent every single day to lift the lives of people, to expand national wealth, coastal wealth, and community wealth." Guyanese authorities have taken other steps to combat the rising cost of living, the post noted. They've removed more than 200 taxes and fees, including the excise tax on fuel and VAT on water, electricity, and some basic foods. They also gave a one-time, tax-free grant worth about $120 a person to a group that included teachers and public servants last year. Nicolas Suarez, a senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence who covers Latin America, told Business Insider the original plan would "increase the average household's disposable income, alleviating some budget constraints." He estimated the initial program's scale at 1.5% of national GDP and 7.9% of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, which officials set up in 2019 to prudently manage the country's oil revenues. The scale of the updated plan is less clear. World Health Organization data suggests there are about 711,000 Guyanese aged 15 and over, so if we assume the 18+ population is 660,000 people and all of them receive $500 each, the program could cost $330 million —not far off the government's estimate of $290 million for the original household payout. "In the short term, this measure could boost private consumption growth, but it may not ease <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>ary pressures," Suarez said about the previous plan. "On the contrary, higher government expenditures could lead to significant inflationary pressures over the next 12 months." He noted that inflation in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. He noted that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. <h2>Riding an oil wave</h2>Guyana, an English-speaking former colony that gained independence from Britain in 1966, borders Venezuela to the west, Brazil to the south, and Suriname to the east. Its natural resource fund is similar to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-dump-russian-assets-ukraine-invasion-2022-2">Norway's oil fund</a>, set up in the 1990s to invest profits from the Scandinavian nation's oil-and-gas sector, protect the economy from fluctuations in energy revenues, and serve as a financial reserve and long-term savings plan for Norwegians. Norway's gas-powered sovereign wealth fund has helped to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries with an estimated population of 5.5 million and a GDP per capita of about $88,000 last year, according to World Bank data. Its oil fund held over $1.7 trillion of assets at the end of June, or more than $300,000 per Norwegian citizen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-chevron-hess-guyana-oil-economy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-2023-10">Exxon</a>, which has discovered an estimated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-opec-price-cuts-us-crude-production-guyana-2023-12">11 billion barrels of oil equivalent</a> off Guyana's coastsince 2015, forecasts the country will produce about 1.3 million barrels a day once the company's six projects are online in 2027. That amount rivals Qatar's current output and would rank Guyana among the world's 20 largest oil producers. Guyana ramped up production to more than 600,000 barrels a day earlier this year, fueling roughly 50% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">GDP growth</a> in the first half and putting Guyana on track to grow about 43% this year, Ali said in an August webcast. Real GDP soared by about 62% in 2022 then 33% in 2023, while GDP per capita has surged from $7,000 in 2020 to around $26,000 this year, International Monetary Fund data shows. <h2>Sharing the wealth</h2>Guyana's payment to its people "sounds like great news," Karl Widerquist, a philosophy professor at Georgetown University-Qatar and the author of several books about universal basic income (UBI) told BI. He described the one-time distribution as "basic capital" or a "stakeholder grant" instead of a basic income, but said "it's a big step in that direction if they go through with it." UBI typically refers to a recurring cash payment made to every individual in a society regardless of their wealth, with no restrictions on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-people-spend-universal-basic-income-ubi-food-housing-transportation-2024-4">how the money is spent</a> and no requirement to pay it back. Proponents hail it as a safety net against poverty that relieves financial strain and frees people to change jobs, start businesses, and weather periods of bad luck without stressing about paying their bills. Guyana's one-off, unconditional cash grant is a "positive step," Cleo Goodman, the basic income lead at the Autonomy Institute think tank, told BI. "This is a welcome injection of cash for citizens." However, she noted a guaranteed, regular income would be a "much more comprehensive commitment to redistributing this newfound wealth." Guyana was colonized by the Netherlands before Britain gained control in the late 18th century. The nation, which shares borders with Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname, became independent in 1966. Correction: October 18, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mistakenly reported an outdated version of the policy. Guyana announced Wednesday it had decided to give the equivalent of $500 to every adult, rather than a higher amount to each household as previously planned. The story also misstated the value of the previously announced figure in US dollars. It was $1,000 a household, not $2,000.

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="1645850" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russians" source="Orion">Russians</keyword> are spending money freely, with consumption per capita surging over 20% from 2021 to 2023.</li><li>The spending comes on the back of an overheated economy, with growth driven by wartime state spending.</li></ul>Russia's economy is booming, and some people are spending generously, sending prices up. Russia posted 3.6%<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-2024-gdp-growth-seen-matching-2023-36-finance-minister-says-2024-04-19/"> GDP growth last year.</a> The unemployment rate hit a record low of 2.6% in April, as men continued heading to the war's front amid a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">brain drain.</a> The labor crunch has driven up wages, contributing to high inflation running over 9% on an annual basis — well above the official 4% target. On Friday, the Russian central bank warned — yet again — of an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-central-bank-governor-nabiullina-warns-overheating-inflation-interest-2023-12">overheating economy</a> when it hiked rates from 16% to 18%in an attempt to rein in price gains. "The GDP growth rates remained high in 2024 Q1 and Q2, while inflation was accelerating. This suggests that overheating in the economy has remained considerable," said Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's central bank governor, on Friday during her rate hike announcement. Despite sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's economy</a> hasn't broken down and even appears resilient, as it's now being driven by wartime state spending on military activities and subsidies. <h2>Russians are traveling and spending on culture and hotels</h2>The rate hike from Russia's central bank comes amid a spending boom in the country where many appear to be spending very freely, even amid the war and Western sanctions, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c">Financial Times reported on Friday.</a> Overall, consumption per capita has increased by over 20% from 2021 to 2023, with spending on tourism a standout, surging over 90%, according to the FT's analysis of official data. Spending on culture, hotels, transportation services, and personal services has also jumped. A resident in Moscow told the FT that her neighbor has been showing off photos of a pet lion. "Everyone who is upper-middle class, they're just enjoying a really good life," Sergei Ishkov, a Moscow investor and entrepreneur, told the media outlet. "Consumption is booming due to a combination of massive budget spending and labor force shortages leading to strong wage pressures," wrote Bartosz Sawicki, a market analyst at fintechConotoxia, in a Friday note. But military spending, which is around 7% of GDP, is leading to "serious macroeconomic imbalances," Sawicki added. <h2>Russia's central bank may hike rates again if necessary</h2>Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia's GDP will grow 3.5% to 4% this year from a year ago. But next year, it's likely to slow to 0.5% to 1.5% year-over-year growth. She added that the Russian central bank would keep its key interest rate high for as long as needed to bring inflation back to its target. If necessary, it could even impose more rate hikes to reduce economic risks. "Labour force and production capacity reserves have been almost exhausted," said Nabiullina on Friday. "Shortages of these resources might cause a situation where the economic growth will be slowing down despite any attempts to boost demand." Furthermore, any attempt to stimulate demand would only stoke even more inflation. That could create "a scenario of stagflation that could only be stopped by way of a deep recession," she warned, explaining the central bank's steep rate hike. The central bank next meets on September 13.

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

<ul><li>Adani said within the next decade, India will start adding $1 trillion to its GDP every 12-18 months. </li><li>India’s median age would be just 38 years even in 2050, and over this period the population would grow by 15% to 1.6 bn but the per capita income would accelerate by 700% approximately to $16,000. </li><li>According to the world’s third richest man, the style of capitalism that drives growth for the sake of growth and ignores the social fabric of the society is rightfully facing its greatest pushback ever. </li></ul>Billionaire Gautam Adani, founder and chairman of the <keyword id="6367820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-group" source="Orion">Adani Group</keyword>, made a strong pitch for India in a multipolar world, where globalisation and the <keyword id="15561137" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="old-style-of-capitalism" source="Orion">old style of capitalism</keyword> was facing its greatest pushback ever. In his keynote address, Adani said that given the pace of reforms and execution, India was on track to clock a GDP of $30 trillion by 2050 and possibly a stock market capitalisation at $45 trillion. He highlighted three key factors that would act as enabling factors in place for this growth — demographic dividend, digitalisation and the transition of the economy to green sources of energy. Morgan Stanley in its strategy report earlier this month said these very factors had put the foundations of a New India. The United States of America, Gautam Adani said, was a $23 trillion economy with a market capitalisation of $45-60 trillion. The nominal dollar based GDP narrative does not paint the real potential of India, even though in absolute growth number for India will be greater than any other nation between today and 2050. While it has taken India 58 years to get to its first $1 trillion in GDP, it took 12 years to add another $1 trillion. The last trillion has been added to India’s GDP has been added in only five years. Adani said within the next decade, India will start adding $1 trillion to its GDP every 12-18 months. India has to be seen in this context. India will achieve this incredible growth without compromising on its democracy and diversity said Adani. The audience cheered on as Adani said that well before 2030, India would be the world’s third largest economy and, thereafter, the world’s second largest economy by 2050. A set of interconnected factors would drive India’s growth over the next three decades. The demographic dividend would drive consumption and accelerate the growth of a tax paying nation he said. India’s median age would be just 38 years even in 2050, and over this period the population would grow by 15% to 1.6 bn but the per capita income would accelerate by 700% approximately to $16000. The Second dimension, Adani said, that would act as an enabling factor was entrepreneurship and digitalisation. Both these factors are strongly linked and can be combined to create a dynamic innovative environment. He said, “Our digitised India will also transform healthcare, education and skill development and create a most equitable society.” Gautam Adani, whose Adani Group is looking to invest $70 bn over the next decade in green energy, dwelled a lot on the energy transition and it’s potential for India. He said the third dimension that would prove to be a powerful transformation for India was in the space of energy transformation. “Energy poverty is today developing world’s greatest challenge and this gap will need to be mostly filled with renewable energy,” he explained. By 2050 India will need 400 more units of energy than it currently consumes. “While this may seem challenging, the technology advancement that we are seeing is expected to make this possible,” Adani said. The combination of solar and wind power coupled with green hydrogen opens up unprecedented possibilities for India. “Cooling the planet down will be one of the most profitable businesses and largest of job creators over the next several decades,” Adani said. Addressing the World Congress of Accountants at the Jio Convention Centre in Mumbai on Saturday, Adani said super powers of this multipolar world are those that take responsibility to step in and help others in a crisis and not bully other nations into submission. ”The style of capitalism that drives growth for the sake of growth and ignores the social fabric of the society is rightfully facing its greatest pushback ever. It is in such a multipolar world that the foundation of India, increasing economic might coupled with its culture and beliefs becomes relevant as it takes its journey to becoming an economic superpower which combines monetary growth with social growth all within the bounds of a democratic society.” SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/economy-resilient-but-sensitive-to-global-headwinds-rbi-article/articleshow/95605014.cms" style="">Economy resilient, but sensitive to global headwinds: RBI article</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/all-is-not-that-well-say-market-experts-even-as-stocks-chase-new-highs/articleshow/95599973.cms" style="">‘All is not that well’, say market experts even as stocks chase new highs</a>

India on course to become world’s second largest economy by 2050, says Gautam Adani

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], March 1 (ANI): In a research report titled "When 8 per cent becomes the new normal: Decoding the new normals of a GDP on swing," the State Bank of India's Economic Research Department unveils key insights into India's economic landscape, shedding light on the recent GDP surge and providing projections for the future. The report highlights the unprecedented growth witnessed in India's economy during the third quarter of FY24, defying all estimates and expectations. India's GDP expanded by a remarkable 8.4 per cent during this period, following consecutive quarters of over 8 per cent growth. This surge has been attributed to effective policy frameworks and perspectives, which have surpassed irrational market expectations. The buoyancy in indirect tax collection, marked by a 32 per cent year-on-year growth amounting to Rs 3.9 lakh crore, further underlines the robustness of the economy. As a result, projections for FY24 indicate a GDP growth of 7.6 per cent and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 6.9 per cent. The report suggests that the GDP growth for the fourth quarter could be around 5.9 per cent, indicating a potential attainment of 8 per cent growth for the fiscal year. Significant revisions in both annual and quarterly numbers have led to upward adjustments in the GDP figures for FY22 and FY24. This revision has propelled the Year-to-Date (YTD) GDP growth rate above the 8 per cent mark. However, downward revisions in FY23 GDP numbers have implications for the fiscal deficit, necessitating an upward revision to 5.9 per cent of GDP for FY24. Delving into sectoral performances, the report highlights stellar performances in <keyword id="20788019" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing-and-services" source="keywords">Manufacturing and Services</keyword>, buoyed by significant growth in industry, manufacturing, and construction sectors. However, the agriculture sector witnessed a decline of -0.8 per cent in Q3, attributed to uncontrollable factors. Moreover, the report underscores remarkable milestones achieved in terms of per capita GDP, with current prices crossing the Rs 2 lakh mark in FY24. Decadal Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) stands at 8.9 per cent, with notable increases observed even in constant prices. Notably, post-pandemic recovery has seen a substantial jump in per capita GDP. The report also analyzes investment and savings trends over the past decade, revealing an increase in Gross Capital Formation (GCF) and gross savings. <keyword id="19964112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="noteworthy" source="keywords">Noteworthy</keyword> is the improvement in the <keyword id="20788020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="incremental-capital-output" source="keywords">Incremental Capital Output</keyword> ratio (ICOR), indicating increasing efficiency of capital utilization and laying the groundwork for sustained economic growth. In conclusion, the findings of the SBI report suggest a promising outlook for India's economy, with the potential for sustained growth at 8 per cent in FY25. (ANI)

SBI report deciphers India's GDP surge and economic projections

<ul><li>Factors like demographic dividend and domestic consumption have often been cited as the engines of India’s economic growth. </li><li>Now, according to a Deutsche Bank report, India is on track to becoming a $7 trillion economy by 2030 on the back of rapid financialisation, clean energy transition and digital revolution. </li><li>India alone will account for more than a fifth (22%) of the world’s total workforce over the next decade, the report says. </li><li>India’s economic growth over the past two decades has been the second fastest amongst major countries, at an average of 7.5% per annum, only behind China’s 9.6% growth. </li></ul>India is on track to becoming a $7 trillion economy by 2030 powered by the triple engines of rapid financialisation, clean energy transition and digital revolution, according to a report by Deutsche Bank. This would mean India doubling its economy in seven years from the existing gross domestic product (GDP) of $3.5 trillion. Factors like demographic dividend and domestic consumption have often been cited as the engines of India’s economic growth. “Achieving such high growth consistently over a medium-term time frame will need more than demographics or consumption, often recognised as India’s twin strength,” said the Deutsche Bank report, while outlining the other drivers of India’s economic growth going forward. India’s economic growth over the past two decades has been the second fastest amongst major countries, at an average of 7.5% per annum, only behind China’s 9.6% growth. Doubling its economy over the next 7 years will require other growth drivers. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Rapid financialisation, thanks to JAM trinity" comment="subhead" text="Rapid financialisation, thanks to JAM trinity">Rapid financialisation, thanks to JAM trinity</cmsannotation> The JAM trinity – Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, and Mobile – has been used to not only plug subsidy leakages and provide welfare benefits directly to the eligible people, it has also driven government efforts with respect to financial inclusion. The report states that there are now 481 million beneficiaries with ₹1.89 lakh crore in deposits in bank accounts. These previously unbanked users, who now have bank accounts thanks to JAM, can also avail of loans from regulated lenders instead of loan sharks. Enabling rapid financial inclusion has also helped the government steady its revenue streams thanks to the goods and services tax (GST), which came into force in 2017. GST now contributes nearly $20 billion on average every month to government revenue. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Clean energy transition" comment="subhead" text="Clean energy transition">Clean energy transition</cmsannotation> With fossil fuels becoming less sustainable due to their costs and the impact on the environment, India’s transition to clean energy is another growth driver, according to Deutsche Bank. Household access to electricity is now at nearly 100%, while the share of biomass in India’s energy matrix has declined by more than 50%. Renewable energy sources contribute to nearly 40% of India’s total installed energy capacity, and this is projected to increase to 60% by 2030. In terms of absolute numbers, India is projected to increase its renewable energy capacity from the current 157 gigawatt to 497 gigawatt by 2030. The reduction in reliance on fossil fuels will also help India cut its trade deficit, since it is still a net importer. “Renewable energy in India promises to be an enabler of several key strategic objectives such as advancing sustainable economic development; improving energy security and mitigating climate change,” the report added. Earlier, a<a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/fossil-fuel-contributed-20-per-cent-to-indias-annual-rate-of-inflation/97966365"> report</a> by Cambridge Econometrics underlined that fossil fuel imports contributed to 20% of India’s inflation between April and May 2022. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Digital revolution" comment="subhead" text="Digital revolution">Digital revolution</cmsannotation> India’s digitisation efforts will be another critical growth driver, according to Deutsche Bank. The report cites various initiatives like the Umang super app for citizen services, Aarogya Setu, the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC), and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). “Each of these initiatives has boosted productivity, sharply reduced transaction costs and leapfrogged the country into a digital era in a way unparalleled across the world,” the report said. UPI, for instance, has 399 banks on its network and has processed 83.75 billion transactions in FY23, with a total transaction value of ₹139 lakh crore. The value and volume of transactions through UPI are also several times higher than that in China and other developed nations like the US, UK, and Japan, among others. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Putting a number to demographic dividend: India to add 22% to world’s working-age population" comment="subhead" text="Putting a number to demographic dividend: India to add 22% to world’s working-age population">Putting a number to demographic dividend: India to add 22% to world’s working-age population</cmsannotation> While things like ‘demographic dividend’ have often been talked about, the analysts at Deutsche Bank have put this into context – according to the report, India alone will account for more than a fifth (22%) of the world’s total workforce over the next decade. For context, this is over 32 times higher than the growth estimated for the US, and more than three times that projected for all of Latin America combined. On the other hand, Europe and China are projected to witness a degrowth in their working-age populations. The report has also identified certain similarities between India’s economic and demographic status of today with that of China’s back in 2007. It says that India’s median age of 28.4 years, its GDP and per capita GDP are all at the same levels as those of China’s in 2007. For context, the Chinese economy is now worth $18.3 trillion. In addition to these trends, the continued efforts to formalise the informal economy are setting the stage for India to double its economy to become the fourth largest by the end of this decade. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/fpis-offload-it-oil-gas-stocks-worth-13734-crore-in-march/articleshow/99375107.cms">FPIs offload IT, oil &amp; gas stocks worth ₹13,734 crore in March; remain net sellers of Indian stocks for 2 years running</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/telecom-companies-q4-revenue-likely-to-moderate-due-to-lack-of-significant-tariff-hikes/articleshow/99368163.cms">Telecom companies’ Q4 revenue likely to moderate due to lack of significant tariff hikes</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-revises-indias-fy24-growth-outlook-expects-softer-inflation-on-the-back-of-lower-commodity-prices/articleshow/99290005.cms">RBI revises India’s FY24 growth outlook, expects softer inflation on the back of lower commodity prices</a>

India set to be a $7 trillion economy by 2030, powered by triple engines of rapid financialisation, clean energy transition and digital revolution

<ul class="summary-list"><li>More than 430,000 <keyword id="13451397" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukrainian-refugees" source="Orion">Ukrainian refugees</keyword> have passed through <keyword id="13199147" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="moldova" source="Orion">Moldova</keyword>, a country of 3 million people.</li><li>Most of the <keyword id="6391453" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="refugees" source="Orion">refugees</keyword> who stayed are renting or being hosted by Moldovan families.</li></ul>CHIŞINĂU, Moldova — Before Russia's invasion of <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> began, UNHCR, the United Nations' refugee agency, had exactly one person working in Moldova, the country that now hosts more displaced Ukrainians per capita than any other. "It happened all so quickly that, like very often happens in an emergency, we were not prepared," Francesca Bonelli, the head of UNHCR's operations in Moldova, said in an interview at her makeshift office in the Soviet-era Jolly Alon hotel.Since February 24, more than 430,000 people have entered Moldova from Ukraine. Nearly 100,000 have stayed, some 3,500 of them third-party nationals, largely from China and Azerbaijan. That's placed a huge burden on a tiny country of just 3 million people with a gross domestic product in 2021 of less than $12 billion — the rough equivalent of three months' economic output in Bakersfield, California.In 2020, for comparison, just 86 people sought asylum in Moldova. <div type="image" title="A Ukrainian baby boy is crying in his mother's arms." height="3688" width="5525" msid="91135045" hostid="261"></div>Most have crossed through the southern town of Palanca, less than an hour drive from the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, where over the weekend Russian missiles struck residential buildings, killing eight people, including a mother and her newborn daughter."I remember one of the first days that I was in Palanca, speaking with the border police. They said that a few people asked them, 'Are we safe here? There are no bombings?' And this really touched me," Bonelli said. It was, she realized, the first time these people — mostly women and children — were not threatened by Russian bombs.Why they haven't gone further than Moldova is, in part, because they remain optimistic. In 25 years of working with refugee populations, "it is the first time that I feel such a strong will to go back home as soon as possible," Bonelli said. "Of course, every refugee wants to go back home, but here you feel it really very strong — probably because the war is so fresh and so close."Today UNHCR in Moldova has around 80 people working for it. Across from the convention center in Chișinău, some of them are now helping register refugees for a cash assistance program. On a weekday morning, a couple hundred refugees who had already applied online for the assistance — $120 a month per person, funded by Catholic Relief Services — were waiting to complete their in-person interviews.Yasemin Sener, assistant field officer for UNHCR, said the intent of the program "is to prevent people from opting for negative coping strategies," such as resorting to sex work or having their children beg in the streets. UNHCR tries to identify particularly vulnerable persons during the registration process to link them to other assistance programs, she added.About 2,000 people per day were being registered for the refugee cash assistance, which launched in mid-March, per UNHCR, with 24,000 people having now been enrolled. <h2> <div type="image" title="people waiting in line outside" height="3644" width="4859" msid="91111871" hostid="261"></div></h2>But good intentions have been undermined by predictable if frustrating problems with implementation.The number of people registered for cash assistance indicates that three-fourths of the refugee population has not signed up. Some may not need it, but others may not know it exists or have the time to spend half a day in line when they are already busy trying to work or care for their children. Others have likely tried only to be thwarted by technical bottlenecks; in the first days of the initiative, the computer system used for registering people kept crashing. Refugees who have made it through the application process have also reported long delays. After registering, some have received their debit cards only to wait more than a month for any cash to be added to their account.It is Moldovans who in the early days of the war and ever since have led the effort to aid their neighbors, proving to be faster and more flexible than <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international" source="Orion">international</keyword> organizations.For the refugee cash assistance program to even be legal, for example, Moldova's parliament had to quickly come together and pass a law allowing for the distribution of debit cards to people who may not have identification (UNHCR collects biometric data to prevent anyone from collecting the cash twice). The Ministry of Internal Affairs also launched a unique public-private partnership — not quite a government agency, not quite a nonprofit — called Moldova for Peace that, with the help of a website that has not crashed, allowed refugees to state their needs and pair them with the appropriate donations. Bonelli readily admits that UNHCR has had to play catch up. She is also quick to credit Moldovans. "I'm very impressed with the government, with the civil society, with the volunteers — every corner here in Moldova is committed to doing the best they can not only to welcome refugees, but to make the situation better," she said.<h2>Moldova steps up, at a cost</h2>Cristina Sirbu, who helped launch Moldova for Peace, said that both solidarity and resilience will be more challenging in the weeks ahead. Many refugees are still operating under the assumption that the war will end soon, a fact that has made a difficult situation more tolerable but also prevented some from coming to terms with their new life. Many refugees say they are in Moldova precisely because it will be that much easier for them to return to the place from which they fled.<div type="image" title="hallway at convention center" height="3648" width="5472" msid="91135047" hostid="261"></div>"Psychologically, they arrive here and they're frozen," Sirbu said over lunch at a cafe in Chișinău. "But they continue to be frozen for a while — until they start to realize that this is not, most probably, a temporary solution," she said. When the realization finally dawns, the formerly "temporary" conditions — living in a shelter or another person's home, with little in the way of privacy — can quickly become intolerable. That, she said, could be a "breaking point."Not just among refugees. Moldovans recoil at theirs being called a "poor" nation, but they are currently being asked to provide far more in the way of energy and charity to aid the victims of war than most other, wealthier European countries.Marina Soloviova, an economist with the Expert-Grup think tank in Chișinău, said it will likely cost Moldova up to $378 million a year to host as many refugees as it is now, about 3% of the country's GDP. This, coming at a time when the government is having to increase subsidies to its poorest residents in response to soaring inflation.The country is also projected to experience zero economic growth this year — "the optimistic forecast," Soloviova said.Outside of the European Union, and prevented from joining NATO, tiny Moldova has punched far above its weight. So far, the European Parliament has stepped in to provide about <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20220321IPR25920/parliament-approves-EU150-million-in-assistance-to-moldova">$162 million in aid</a> for its trouble, 80% in the form of loans.But money isn't the chief concern for most people in Moldova. It is something to be addressed later.For now, at least, the war next door has helped unite a country, often divided since independence between those for and against Europe, around a singular purpose. The hope, as the country applies for membership in the EU, is they will someday be repaid.Have a <keyword id="11893589" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="news" source="Orion">news</keyword> tip? Email this reporter: <a href="mailto:cdavis@insider.com">cdavis@insider.com</a>

How Moldova, with a population smaller than Los Angeles, is accepting more Ukrainian refugees per capita than any other country

<ul><li>Factors like offshoring, digitisation and decarbonisation are set to drive India’s ascent as the world’s third largest economy. </li><li>India's per-capita energy consumption is likely to rise 60% and most of this demand will be met by renewable energy. </li><li>The number of households earning in excess of $35,000 a year is likely to rise fivefold in the coming decade to over 25 million.</li></ul>India could well be on its way to becoming the world’s third largest economy and stock market if <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword>’s equity strategists and economists are to be believed. In its report titled ‘Why This Is India’s Decade’, the global investment bank cites several factors like the rise in offshoring, investments in manufacturing, energy transition and the country’s digital infrastructure would make this a reality. Morgan Stanley, has remained bullish on the India story for years now, unlike some other global banks that Modi-fied their view on India after the taper tantrum of 2013 and the subsequent meltdown in markets. Over the years, Morgan Stanley’s celebrated strategist <keyword id="44540" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="ridham-desai" source="Orion">Ridham Desai</keyword> has steadfast in his analysis on the Next India. Many of his projections have played out like the one on retail investors leading the charge in Indian equities. After two years of the pandemic, during which foundations of the future have been laid, the theme has now shifted to New India. The strategy report titled ‘Why This is India’s Decade’ by Morgan Stanley says: “Our Next India thematic looked at the trends and policies shaping the future of India's economy. As those trends have largely come to pass, with this report we shift from The Next India to The New India thematic to mark this transition. The four global trends of Demographics, Digitalization, Decarbonization and Deglobalization are favouring New India.” The first factor that will continue to benefit India is offshoring. India has been the back office for the world for more than two decades. But the pandemic has only accelerated the pace of this trend, as more companies look at offshoring various functions to India. In a multi-polar world, now even manufacturing is slated to shift India. Morgan Stanley has spent considerable time in its report on why India would rise in the world economy. Digitisation and the India stack is a story that is not very often seen in its entirety. The India Stack, digital payments using Unified Payments Interface that can handle large volumes at a small cost is unique to India. The digital revolution will transform how India lends, pays and insures itself. Says Morgan Stanley, “The digital revolution has already changed the way India handles documents, invests, and makes payments, and it is also set to alter the way India lends, spends and insures.” <div type="image" title="Ridham Desai, strategist, Morgan Stanley" msid="95256603" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Ridham Desai, strategist, Morgan Stanley&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Clean energy and the energy transition are sectors where India is keen to take a lead with Indian behemoths Reliance Industries and Adani Group taking big strides. While the world has seen energy transitions before, what makes India unique is that the consumption of energy and its sources are undergoing a sharp shift. Since consumption of energy is still rising in India, legacy energy assets will not become redundant overnight. These assets will continue to be in use even as greener sources start replacing two-thirds of the demand. Explains MS: “India's energy needs are still growing, and, therefore, legacy capacity using fossil fuels will not be destroyed as it transitions to a higher share of renewables. India's per-capita energy consumption is likely to rise 60%, on our estimates, to about 1450 Watts per day in the coming decade, with two-thirds of the incremental supply coming from renewable sources.” This shift will lead to a virtuous cycle and reduce dependence on imported fuel, risks of price volatility and inflationary pressures. The future definitely looks brighter for India as it makes this shift, leading to better living conditions. No prizes for guessing that a combination of these factors would be good for consumer demand and equity markets. Indians are expected to spend more on discretionary spends, as per-capita GDP has crossed the important $2,000 mark. According to MS, “India's income pyramid offers unique breadth of consumption, in our view, with the top end spending like the richest in the world and the bottom end still relatively poor. The number of households earning in excess of $35,000/year is likely to rise fivefold in the coming decade, to over 25 million. The implications are 1) GDP is likely to cross $7.5 trillion by 2031, more than double the current level, 2) a discretionary consumption boom and 3) 11% annual compounding of market capitalization to $10 trn in the coming decade.” The only risk to this Goldilocks assessment is the risk of a prolonged recession globally, adverse geopolitical risks and an unstable government at the centre in India. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/gautam-adani-puts-in-place-plan-to-take-group-valuation-to-1-trillion/articleshow/94857619.cms">Gautam Adani puts in place plan to take Group valuation to $1 trillion</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/5g-rollout-to-give-business-a-fillip-says-airtel-ceo-gopal-vittal/articleshow/95230944.cms">5G rollout to give business a fillip, says Airtel CEO Gopal Vittal</a>

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India to remain fastest growing major economy in 2024-25, says CEA Nageswaran

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How Moldova, with a population smaller than Los Angeles, is accepting more Ukrainian refugees per capita than any other country

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This is India’s decade and GDP is likely to cross $7.5 trillion by 2031, says Morgan Stanley

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