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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19935006" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Guyana" source="keywords">Guyana</keyword>, the tiny South American nation, plans to give $500 to every citizen aged 18 and over.</li><li>Its president said the <keyword id="21044249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cash-payments" source="keywords">cash payments</keyword> aim to narrow disparities and help with higher living costs.</li></ul>The world's fastest-growing economy is giving the equivalent of $500 to each of its adult citizens as it works to share its newfound oil wealth and soften the sting of higher living costs. President <keyword id="21170274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mohamed-Irfaan-Ali" source="keywords">Mohamed Irfaan Ali</keyword> of Guyana, the South American country with just 800,000 people, announced the move last week and said his government would begin distributing the cash immediately. He previously said each household would receive the Guyanese-dollar equivalent of $1,000, but switched to an individual payment after locals raised concerns about how a household would be defined and how the money would be shared within each home. "This is how we are promoting prosperity, ownership, distribution of wealth," Ali said. "This is how the resources and revenue of this country are being spent every single day to lift the lives of people, to expand national wealth, coastal wealth, and community wealth." Guyanese authorities have taken other steps to combat the rising cost of living, the post noted. They've removed more than 200 taxes and fees, including the excise tax on fuel and VAT on water, electricity, and some basic foods. They also gave a one-time, tax-free grant worth about $120 a person to a group that included teachers and public servants last year. Nicolas Suarez, a senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence who covers Latin America, told Business Insider the original plan would "increase the average household's disposable income, alleviating some budget constraints." He estimated the initial program's scale at 1.5% of national GDP and 7.9% of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, which officials set up in 2019 to prudently manage the country's oil revenues. The scale of the updated plan is less clear. World Health Organization data suggests there are about 711,000 Guyanese aged 15 and over, so if we assume the 18+ population is 660,000 people and all of them receive $500 each, the program could cost $330 million —not far off the government's estimate of $290 million for the original household payout. "In the short term, this measure could boost private consumption growth, but it may not ease <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>ary pressures," Suarez said about the previous plan. "On the contrary, higher government expenditures could lead to significant inflationary pressures over the next 12 months." He noted that inflation in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. He noted that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. <h2>Riding an oil wave</h2>Guyana, an English-speaking former colony that gained independence from Britain in 1966, borders Venezuela to the west, Brazil to the south, and Suriname to the east. Its natural resource fund is similar to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-dump-russian-assets-ukraine-invasion-2022-2">Norway's oil fund</a>, set up in the 1990s to invest profits from the Scandinavian nation's oil-and-gas sector, protect the economy from fluctuations in energy revenues, and serve as a financial reserve and long-term savings plan for Norwegians. Norway's gas-powered sovereign wealth fund has helped to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries with an estimated population of 5.5 million and a GDP per capita of about $88,000 last year, according to World Bank data. Its oil fund held over $1.7 trillion of assets at the end of June, or more than $300,000 per Norwegian citizen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-chevron-hess-guyana-oil-economy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-2023-10">Exxon</a>, which has discovered an estimated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-opec-price-cuts-us-crude-production-guyana-2023-12">11 billion barrels of oil equivalent</a> off Guyana's coastsince 2015, forecasts the country will produce about 1.3 million barrels a day once the company's six projects are online in 2027. That amount rivals Qatar's current output and would rank Guyana among the world's 20 largest oil producers. Guyana ramped up production to more than 600,000 barrels a day earlier this year, fueling roughly 50% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">GDP growth</a> in the first half and putting Guyana on track to grow about 43% this year, Ali said in an August webcast. Real GDP soared by about 62% in 2022 then 33% in 2023, while GDP per capita has surged from $7,000 in 2020 to around $26,000 this year, International Monetary Fund data shows. <h2>Sharing the wealth</h2>Guyana's payment to its people "sounds like great news," Karl Widerquist, a philosophy professor at Georgetown University-Qatar and the author of several books about universal basic income (UBI) told BI. He described the one-time distribution as "basic capital" or a "stakeholder grant" instead of a basic income, but said "it's a big step in that direction if they go through with it." UBI typically refers to a recurring cash payment made to every individual in a society regardless of their wealth, with no restrictions on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-people-spend-universal-basic-income-ubi-food-housing-transportation-2024-4">how the money is spent</a> and no requirement to pay it back. Proponents hail it as a safety net against poverty that relieves financial strain and frees people to change jobs, start businesses, and weather periods of bad luck without stressing about paying their bills. Guyana's one-off, unconditional cash grant is a "positive step," Cleo Goodman, the basic income lead at the Autonomy Institute think tank, told BI. "This is a welcome injection of cash for citizens." However, she noted a guaranteed, regular income would be a "much more comprehensive commitment to redistributing this newfound wealth." Guyana was colonized by the Netherlands before Britain gained control in the late 18th century. The nation, which shares borders with Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname, became independent in 1966. Correction: October 18, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mistakenly reported an outdated version of the policy. Guyana announced Wednesday it had decided to give the equivalent of $500 to every adult, rather than a higher amount to each household as previously planned. The story also misstated the value of the previously announced figure in US dollars. It was $1,000 a household, not $2,000.

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's economy is staring at "near stagnation," according to Anders Åslund.</li><li>The Swedish economist thinks sanctions are biting into economic growth. </li></ul>Russia's economy is coming closer to a near-stop — and Moscow looks bound to run out of resources to fund its war against Ukraine.That's according to Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist who says Russia's economy is taking a bigger hit from Western sanctions than some believe.While Putin has blown off the impact of Western restrictions, sanctions could be knocking off as much as 3% of Russia's GDP each year, Åslund estimated — the equivalent of $56.4 billion a year, given <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/economy/1743227">Russia's current dollar GDP</a> of $1.88 trillion in 2023."Contrary to what the Kremlin would like others to believe, time is not on Russia's side," Åslund wrote in an op-ed for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-war-economy-weakening-under-sanctions-by-anders-aslund-2024-10">Project Syndicate</a> on Tuesday. "My own view is that the current sanctions regime shaves off 2-3% of GDP each year, condemning Russia to near stagnation. Moreover, the situation will get only worse for Putin, perhaps even impeding this campaign of aggression against Ukraine."Russia's GDP technically grew 3.6% last year, with another <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">3.2% real GDP growth expected in 2024</a>, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. But economists have noted that much of Russia's growth has been fueled by aggressive government <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">spending on the war</a>, while longer-term indicators of economic health have soured.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">Labor productivity</a>, for instance, dropped more than 3% last year, thanks partly to an ongoing brain drain in the nation's workforce.Russia's energy business, which supplies a major portion of its total revenue is also struggling. Moscow's <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">oil and gas revenue dropped</a> by nearly a quarter in 2023, thanks to tumbling oil prices and sanctions targeting the nation's energy trade.Inflation, meanwhile, is roaring. <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/economy/1847635">Consumer prices rose 8.5% year-per-year</a> the week of September 17, according to official figures from Russia's Economic Development Ministry. It's likely prices are running even hotter than what those figures suggest, Åslund said, pointing to a long history of Russia understating inflation numbers during the time of the Soviet Union."The only sectors of the Russian economy that are growing are the military and related infrastructure, where state-owned companies sell to the state at (probably inflated) administered prices. The rest of the economy is flat at best," Åslund wrote.Russia is also in a tough spot when it comes to financing the war against Ukraine. The nation has had difficulty borrowing cash from other countries after it was shut out of SWIFT, the global financial communications system, which means that the economy is primarily feeding off tax revenues and reserves.Russia has depleted a large chunk of its National Wealth Fund, which had around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-national-wealth-fund-rises-1415-bln-june-1-2024-06-05/">$56 billion</a> left in liquid assets at the start of June, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.While Russia has moved to raise <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1816407">personal</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1816413">corporate taxes</a>, that's unlikely to make a huge difference in the grand scheme of the Kremlin's finances, Åslund said, as there aren't many bond buyers keen to pick up Russia's debt."Including all the hidden costs, Russia will probably spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year, and that figure presumably represents the peak, given the constraints imposed by Western financial sanctions," he added, suggesting Russia could only sustain its war efforts for a limited amount of time. "Whenever Russia can no longer finance a budget deficit, it will have to cut public expenditures, and its non-military outlays have already been pared to the bone."Economists have warned that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">dark and uncertain</a> future is looming for Russia, with the mounting costs of the war cannibalizing<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/putin-russia-economy-ukraine-war-wagner-mutiny-rebellion-west-sanctions-2023-7"> key parts of its economy</a>. At this point, the Kremlin's war spending is likely the only thing preventing the nation from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">slipping into an immediate recession</a>, economists told Business Insider.

Russia's economy faces 'near stagnation' with sanctions whittling down annual GDP growth, European economist says

India's services sector showed robust expansion in October, per the <keyword id="22267674" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HSBC-India-Services-PMI" source="keywords">HSBC India Services PMI</keyword> (Purchasing Managers' Index), which rose to 58.5 last month, up from September's ten-month low of 57.7. October's figures managed to exceed even the long-run PMI average of 54.1, largely on the back of a strong sales pipeline and elevated demand. Employment, or job creation in this sector accelerated to its fastest growth rate in 26 months. Anticipating solid, sustained demand in the near term, firms added new employees at the most rapid pace in over 2 years. October also saw <keyword id="23834175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="input-costs-rise" source="keywords">input costs rise</keyword> at their fastest pace in 3 months, indicating renewed demand and economic activity in the country. The ISM Services PMI, an indicator of the economic health of the US, also exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 compared to the forecasted 53.8, suggesting strong growth within the services sector. "During October, the Indian services sector experienced strong expansions in output and consumer demand, as well as job creation, which achieved a 26-month high," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. The sector saw increased business activity across multiple fronts, with export sales showing significant growth and companies reporting stronger demand from international markets including Africa, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and the UK. However, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's prospects. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Acuité Ratings &amp; Research, noted that while the October recovery is promising, several factors warrant careful monitoring. “The recovery in the PMI indices in October 2024 is promising for the second half of the fiscal after the dip in several high-frequency indicators in September 2024. Industrial and service activity has expectedly received a boost from the anticipated spike in consumption demand in Q3 FY25, driven by the festivities and the marriage season," she said. Chowdhury added that it will be crucial to monitor the sustainability of these PMI indices at these elevated levels, given the reported weakness in urban demand in Q2 as flagged by FMCG companies. She also noted that potential increases in wholesale and core retail inflation, combined with higher input costs and wage pressures, could delay expected interest rate cuts. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also noted that inflation and CPI figures for October might be elevated, pushing ahead any chances of interest rate cuts in the near future. Acuité Ratings &amp; Research maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.0% for FY25 while acknowledging the multiple downside risks that will require close observation in the coming months.

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

The <keyword id="19919399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Asian-Development-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Asian Development Bank" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Asian Development Bank">Asian Development Bank</keyword> (ADB) on Wednesday maintained India's <keyword id="20540008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth-forecast" source="keywords">GDP growth forecast</keyword> at 7 per cent for the current financial year, citing that a rebound in agriculture is expected given above-normal <keyword id="22442671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon-projections" source="keywords">monsoon projections</keyword>. The ADB forecast comes a day after the International Monetary Fund revised upward its GDP growth projections for India to 7 per cent compared to 6.8 per cent projected in April. Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised upward its growth forecast to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent estimated earlier. The <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> is on track to grow by 7 per cent in FY2024 (ending 31 March 2025) and 7.2 per cent in FY2025 (next financial year), as projected in ADO April 2024, said the July edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO). The Indian economy logged a growth rate of 8.2 per cent for the financial year ended March 2024, as against 7 per cent in the previous fiscal year. Services continued to expand robustly in Q4 of FY24, and the forward-looking services PMI is well above its long-term average, it said, adding, industry is also expected to grow robustly, driven by manufacturing and strong demand for construction led by housing, it said. "After muted growth in FY2023 (previous fiscal), a rebound in agriculture is expected given the above-normal monsoon projections. This is notwithstanding the slower advance of monsoon in June. A rebound in agriculture will be important to sustain growth momentum in rural areas," it said. Investment demand continues to be strong, led by public investments and bank credit is fueling robust housing demand and improving private investment demand, it said. However, it said, export growth will continue to be led by services, with merchandise exports showing relatively weaker growth. The stronger-than-expected fiscal position of the central government could provide a further boost to growth, it said. However, the report said, this must be weighed against downside risks arising from weather events and geopolitical shocks. With regard to inflation, ADO has also retained its forecast at 4.6 per cent for the current financial year and expects it to marginally decline to 4.5 per cent next fiscal. With regard to developing Asia's growth forecast, ADO said, it is revised up to 5 per cent in 2024 and maintained at 4.9 per cent in 2025. Growth projections remain broadly unchanged with respect to ADO April 2024, it said, adding, resilient domestic demand along with improved exports and manufacturing will support growth this year. The region's 2024 growth forecast has been marginally adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points due to upward revisions in the Caucasus and Central Asia along with East Asia, it said. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for the region has fallen to 2.9 per cent in 2024, largely due to downward revisions in China and the Caucasus and Central Asia, which offset a slight increase in South Asia, it said.

Monsoon projections to ensure India's GDP growth forecast remains at 7% for FY'25: Asian Development Bank

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="1645850" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russians" source="Orion">Russians</keyword> are spending money freely, with consumption per capita surging over 20% from 2021 to 2023.</li><li>The spending comes on the back of an overheated economy, with growth driven by wartime state spending.</li></ul>Russia's economy is booming, and some people are spending generously, sending prices up. Russia posted 3.6%<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-2024-gdp-growth-seen-matching-2023-36-finance-minister-says-2024-04-19/"> GDP growth last year.</a> The unemployment rate hit a record low of 2.6% in April, as men continued heading to the war's front amid a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">brain drain.</a> The labor crunch has driven up wages, contributing to high inflation running over 9% on an annual basis — well above the official 4% target. On Friday, the Russian central bank warned — yet again — of an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-central-bank-governor-nabiullina-warns-overheating-inflation-interest-2023-12">overheating economy</a> when it hiked rates from 16% to 18%in an attempt to rein in price gains. "The GDP growth rates remained high in 2024 Q1 and Q2, while inflation was accelerating. This suggests that overheating in the economy has remained considerable," said Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's central bank governor, on Friday during her rate hike announcement. Despite sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's economy</a> hasn't broken down and even appears resilient, as it's now being driven by wartime state spending on military activities and subsidies. <h2>Russians are traveling and spending on culture and hotels</h2>The rate hike from Russia's central bank comes amid a spending boom in the country where many appear to be spending very freely, even amid the war and Western sanctions, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c">Financial Times reported on Friday.</a> Overall, consumption per capita has increased by over 20% from 2021 to 2023, with spending on tourism a standout, surging over 90%, according to the FT's analysis of official data. Spending on culture, hotels, transportation services, and personal services has also jumped. A resident in Moscow told the FT that her neighbor has been showing off photos of a pet lion. "Everyone who is upper-middle class, they're just enjoying a really good life," Sergei Ishkov, a Moscow investor and entrepreneur, told the media outlet. "Consumption is booming due to a combination of massive budget spending and labor force shortages leading to strong wage pressures," wrote Bartosz Sawicki, a market analyst at fintechConotoxia, in a Friday note. But military spending, which is around 7% of GDP, is leading to "serious macroeconomic imbalances," Sawicki added. <h2>Russia's central bank may hike rates again if necessary</h2>Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia's GDP will grow 3.5% to 4% this year from a year ago. But next year, it's likely to slow to 0.5% to 1.5% year-over-year growth. She added that the Russian central bank would keep its key interest rate high for as long as needed to bring inflation back to its target. If necessary, it could even impose more rate hikes to reduce economic risks. "Labour force and production capacity reserves have been almost exhausted," said Nabiullina on Friday. "Shortages of these resources might cause a situation where the economic growth will be slowing down despite any attempts to boost demand." Furthermore, any attempt to stimulate demand would only stoke even more inflation. That could create "a scenario of stagflation that could only be stopped by way of a deep recession," she warned, explaining the central bank's steep rate hike. The central bank next meets on September 13.

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's GDP growth slowed to 4% in Q2, while inflation continued to rise.</li><li>Economists have long been warning that the Russian economy is showing signs of "overheating."</li></ul>Russia's economic growth slowed to 4% in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.4% in Q1, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240809-russian-economic-growth-dips-in-second-quarter-as-inflation-rises">AFP reported</a>, citing official data released on Friday.While the Russian economy continues to expand, it marked the lowest quarterly GDP growth result since the beginning of 2023, the report said.It comes as the Kremlin battles rising inflation and warnings that the economy is overheating.Russia's economic growth has come off the back of huge Kremlin spending on its military campaign in Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022.While that spending helped quell earlier predictions of an imminent recession linked to Western sanctions, it has led to rampant inflation.Inflation hit 9.13% year-on-year in July, the AFP report said, citing data from the Rosstat statistics agency.The country has also been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-overheating-consumer-spending-tourism-central-bank-interest-rate-2024-7">going through a consumption boom</a>, driven by the state's heavy defense spending and labor shortages."Consumer activity remains high amid a significant increase in households' incomes and positive consumer sentiment,'" Russia's central bank said in July."Labour shortages continue to grow. In these conditions, the growth in domestic demand does not result in a proportional expansion of the supply of goods and services but rather increases the costs of businesses and, consequently, intensifies inflationary pressures," it added.Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate to 18% last month after inflation "accelerated" and was "developing significantly above the Bank of Russia's April forecast," it said.Russia's economy is also facing a severe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">demographic crisis</a>, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-calls-russians-more-babies-ethnic-survival-economy-2024-2">nation's population</a> potentially shrinking by 50% by the end of the century, according to a report by the Atlantic Council written by Harley Balzer, an emeritus professor at Georgetown University.The report highlights Russia's long-standing population decline, which it says has now been exacerbated by the ongoing war in Ukraine.This decline could increase pressure on Russia's labor shortages and lead to lower growth and productivity."Unless Russia's leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa," Balzer wrote in the report.

Russia's GDP growth slowed in Q2 while inflation continued to soar on the back of heavy state spending: report

In a rather dampened <keyword id="19915531" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forecast" source="keywords">forecast</keyword> for the Indian economy, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICRA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICRA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICRA">ICRA</keyword> has forecast a sharp <keyword id="20637625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="keywords">slowdown</keyword> in India's <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword>. The credit rating agency has projected a year-on-year expansion of 6.0% in <keyword id="22106354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY2025" source="keywords">Q1 FY2025</keyword> — the lowest in the last six quarters. In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well. Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade. However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey. “The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half. The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA. The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies. ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown. Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth. In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024. With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies. However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/digital-initiatives-to-triple-indian-retail-borrowing-to-usd-2-5-trillion-by-2030-sp-global/articleshow/112263945.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&amp;P Global</a>

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s world record beating <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> rate together with robust tax revenues, a fast expanding digital and financial <keyword id="19916864" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure" source="keywords">infrastructure</keyword> and a strong manufacturing sector will give the new <keyword id="19900449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government" source="keywords">government</keyword> a base for unleashing next generation <keyword id="19900768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reforms" source="keywords">reforms</keyword> that may make the country a <keyword id="19953418" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="developed-nation" source="keywords">developed nation</keyword> by 2047. The new government will however have to tackle with problems like unemployment and rural distress, which seemed to have played a major role in voting pattern in states like Uttar Pradesh, while also keeping inflation under control. Given that no party, including BJP, have a clear majority of its own, tough reforms like big ticket privatisation and labour law reforms may take a backseat. As per the available trends, BJP is likely to win about 240 seats in a 543- member <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword>. It would have to rely on its allies like TDP and JDU to form the next government. The new government will have to build upon the 8.2 per cent <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> recorded in 2023-24 and carry on with the reforms to make India a USD 5 trillion economy in the next couple of years and a developed nation by 2047. Policy experts are unanimous in their view that the government is likely to continue its focus on infrastructure-led growth, investor-friendly policies, enabling reforms, and facilitating ease of doing business. Last week, <keyword id="20070868" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Ratings" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Ratings" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Ratings">S&amp;P Global Ratings</keyword> had said that historically India has been on a high growth path with national consensus on key economic policies. "No matter who the incoming government is, the pro-growth policies, sustained infrastructure investments, the drive to reduce fiscal deficit -- these things have produced very good outcomes and we believe this will continue in the coming years no matter who is in charge," S&amp;P Global Ratings Analyst YeeFarn Phua said. EY India Chief policy advisor DK Srivastava said the Aatmanirbhar strategy, especially focusing on knowledge intensive employment generating and strategic manufacturing, will serve India well in the long run while providing scope for increasing both services and goods exports. "The new government will find a solid foundation of the economy, ready to take off with the objective of fulfilling India's aim of becoming 'viksit' in the next 25 years," Srivastava said. Under the Modi government's 10-year tenure India has become the fifth largest economy, from 11th globally, shaking off its image as a "fragile" economy prior to 2014. The new government will have its eyes set on taking India among the top three economies in the world. The target is "more likely" to be realised by 2027-28 fiscal, according to 16th Finance Commission Chairman Arvind Panagariya. Currently, the size of the Indian economy is USD 3.7 trillion and it is expected to become USD 7 trillion by 2030. RBI has projected a 7 per cent growth rate for the current fiscal. Deloitte South Asia CEO Romal Shetty said India is firmly on the growth trajectory as the world's fastest-growing economy and a key player in the global supply chain. "With the new government, we expect second-generation reforms driven by technology to make India a global hub of innovation and a thriving digital economy. We must further accelerate reforms to strengthen ease of doing business, boost inbound investment, and solidify India's position as the top destination for GCCs (global capability centres) and high-tech manufacturing, with a focus on jobs," Shetty said. In fact, reflecting the buoyant sentiments S&amp;P Global Ratings last week upgraded India's outlook to positive, from stable, and said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in next 1-2 years if the government continues reforms and adheres to the path of fiscal consolidation. Last week, Moody's Ratings also said it expects policy continuity after the general election and continued focus on infrastructure development. Nangia Andersen India Chairman Rakesh Nangia said the investors' community expects continued policy reforms, particularly in labour laws and the privatization of state-owned enterprises. "Investors are also keen on prudent fiscal management, focusing on reducing the fiscal deficit while promoting growth through strategic investments. This combination of reforms and fiscal discipline is expected to create a favourable environment for sustained economic growth and increased investor confidence," Nangia said. Nangia further said that investors are also eager to see a further simplification of India's regulatory framework, more transparent and predictable policies that can enhance the ease of doing business. "This regulatory clarity is crucial for attracting more Foreign Direct Investment (<keyword id="19946824" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FDI" source="keywords">FDI</keyword>) and positioning India as a key manufacturing hub driven by supply chain diversification. In recent years, there has been substantial FDI inflow into sectors such as manufacturing, computer services, and renewable energy, reflecting India's growing appeal as a destination for global investment," Nangia said.

You Searched For "GDP growth" and got 12 results

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

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Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

BI India Bureau

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

PTI

Russia's economy faces 'near stagnation' with sanctions whittling down annual GDP growth, European economist says

Jennifer Sor

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

BI India Bureau

Monsoon projections to ensure India's GDP growth forecast remains at 7% for FY'25: Asian Development Bank

PTI

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

Huileng Tan

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

ANI

Russia's GDP growth slowed in Q2 while inflation continued to soar on the back of heavy state spending: report

Rebecca Rommen

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

Deekshith Pinto

New govt to inherit strong economy, focus on making India developed nation by 2047

PTI

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