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India's services sector showed robust expansion in October, per the <keyword id="22267674" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HSBC-India-Services-PMI" source="keywords">HSBC India Services PMI</keyword> (Purchasing Managers' Index), which rose to 58.5 last month, up from September's ten-month low of 57.7. October's figures managed to exceed even the long-run PMI average of 54.1, largely on the back of a strong sales pipeline and elevated demand. Employment, or job creation in this sector accelerated to its fastest growth rate in 26 months. Anticipating solid, sustained demand in the near term, firms added new employees at the most rapid pace in over 2 years. October also saw <keyword id="23834175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="input-costs-rise" source="keywords">input costs rise</keyword> at their fastest pace in 3 months, indicating renewed demand and economic activity in the country. The ISM Services PMI, an indicator of the economic health of the US, also exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 compared to the forecasted 53.8, suggesting strong growth within the services sector. "During October, the Indian services sector experienced strong expansions in output and consumer demand, as well as job creation, which achieved a 26-month high," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. The sector saw increased business activity across multiple fronts, with export sales showing significant growth and companies reporting stronger demand from international markets including Africa, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and the UK. However, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's prospects. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Acuité Ratings &amp; Research, noted that while the October recovery is promising, several factors warrant careful monitoring. “The recovery in the PMI indices in October 2024 is promising for the second half of the fiscal after the dip in several high-frequency indicators in September 2024. Industrial and service activity has expectedly received a boost from the anticipated spike in consumption demand in Q3 FY25, driven by the festivities and the marriage season," she said. Chowdhury added that it will be crucial to monitor the sustainability of these PMI indices at these elevated levels, given the reported weakness in urban demand in Q2 as flagged by FMCG companies. She also noted that potential increases in wholesale and core retail inflation, combined with higher input costs and wage pressures, could delay expected interest rate cuts. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also noted that inflation and CPI figures for October might be elevated, pushing ahead any chances of interest rate cuts in the near future. Acuité Ratings &amp; Research maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.0% for FY25 while acknowledging the multiple downside risks that will require close observation in the coming months.

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday after a fresh batch of economic data points. </li><li>US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter.</li></ul>US stocks wavered on Wednesday as a combination of data releases left investors with a strong impression of the US economy.Third-quarter <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-economy-2024-10">US real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.8%</a>. Though slightly below forecasts, the reading still points to a strong economy and isn't likely to ramp up the urgency on the part of the Federal Reserve to rapidly cut interest rates to prop up growth. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures index rose 2.2% year over year last month. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge was slightly higher than expected but still within striking distance of the central bankers' 2% target. "Growth up, inflation down is precisely what you want to see. The Fed doesn't need to be afraid of a stable and growing economy to normalize rates this cycle so long as disinflation persists," Harris Financial Group managing partner Jamie Cox said.Rounding out Wednesday's data were private payrolls for October, which showed hiring rose at the fastest pace in a year, increasing by 233,000, according to ADP. The data, along with the October nonfarm payroll report due on Friday, will inform the Fed's next move at its meeting next week. The odds of a quarter-point interest rate cut stand at 98.2%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Meanwhile, investors are monitoring a slew of upcoming earnings from key companies. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/googl-stock">Alphabet</a> shares surged 5% shortly after the opening bell after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10#:~:text=Revenue%20from%20Google%20Cloud%20grew,%25%20in%20after%2Dhours%20trading.&amp;text=Alphabet%20and%20Google%20CEO%20Sundar,investments%20were%20%22paying%20off.%22">exceeding third-quarter earnings expectations</a>.Shares of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Microsoft</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Meta</a> are also trading higher as traders anticipate their <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">financial results</a> on Wednesday after the closing bell. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock">Amazon</a> are on deck to report after the close on Thursday.Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,832.88, down 0.01%<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,214.85, down 0.04% (-18.20 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,727.14, up 0.11% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-china-election-consumer-stocks-earnings-ubs-2024-10?_gl=1*1ehsglt*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDI5MDk5MS43NzYuMS4xNzMwMjkxNzY4LjYwLjAuMA..">UBS lists three consumer stocks that could see earnings plunge </a>under Trump's tariffs.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/matthew-fox">Trump's Truth Social has overtaken the valuation of Elon Musk's X.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">The election cycle has led to an explosion in the betting market</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1.58% to $68.26 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 1.56% at $72.23 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> inched up 0.60% to $2,798 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield fell three basis points to 4.238%.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> slid 1.48% to $71,741.57.

Stock market today: Indexes slip as traders digest GDP and inflation data ahead of more big earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19935006" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Guyana" source="keywords">Guyana</keyword>, the tiny South American nation, plans to give $500 to every citizen aged 18 and over.</li><li>Its president said the <keyword id="21044249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cash-payments" source="keywords">cash payments</keyword> aim to narrow disparities and help with higher living costs.</li></ul>The world's fastest-growing economy is giving the equivalent of $500 to each of its adult citizens as it works to share its newfound oil wealth and soften the sting of higher living costs. President <keyword id="21170274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mohamed-Irfaan-Ali" source="keywords">Mohamed Irfaan Ali</keyword> of Guyana, the South American country with just 800,000 people, announced the move last week and said his government would begin distributing the cash immediately. He previously said each household would receive the Guyanese-dollar equivalent of $1,000, but switched to an individual payment after locals raised concerns about how a household would be defined and how the money would be shared within each home. "This is how we are promoting prosperity, ownership, distribution of wealth," Ali said. "This is how the resources and revenue of this country are being spent every single day to lift the lives of people, to expand national wealth, coastal wealth, and community wealth." Guyanese authorities have taken other steps to combat the rising cost of living, the post noted. They've removed more than 200 taxes and fees, including the excise tax on fuel and VAT on water, electricity, and some basic foods. They also gave a one-time, tax-free grant worth about $120 a person to a group that included teachers and public servants last year. Nicolas Suarez, a senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence who covers Latin America, told Business Insider the original plan would "increase the average household's disposable income, alleviating some budget constraints." He estimated the initial program's scale at 1.5% of national GDP and 7.9% of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, which officials set up in 2019 to prudently manage the country's oil revenues. The scale of the updated plan is less clear. World Health Organization data suggests there are about 711,000 Guyanese aged 15 and over, so if we assume the 18+ population is 660,000 people and all of them receive $500 each, the program could cost $330 million —not far off the government's estimate of $290 million for the original household payout. "In the short term, this measure could boost private consumption growth, but it may not ease <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>ary pressures," Suarez said about the previous plan. "On the contrary, higher government expenditures could lead to significant inflationary pressures over the next 12 months." He noted that inflation in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. He noted that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. <h2>Riding an oil wave</h2>Guyana, an English-speaking former colony that gained independence from Britain in 1966, borders Venezuela to the west, Brazil to the south, and Suriname to the east. Its natural resource fund is similar to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-dump-russian-assets-ukraine-invasion-2022-2">Norway's oil fund</a>, set up in the 1990s to invest profits from the Scandinavian nation's oil-and-gas sector, protect the economy from fluctuations in energy revenues, and serve as a financial reserve and long-term savings plan for Norwegians. Norway's gas-powered sovereign wealth fund has helped to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries with an estimated population of 5.5 million and a GDP per capita of about $88,000 last year, according to World Bank data. Its oil fund held over $1.7 trillion of assets at the end of June, or more than $300,000 per Norwegian citizen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-chevron-hess-guyana-oil-economy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-2023-10">Exxon</a>, which has discovered an estimated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-opec-price-cuts-us-crude-production-guyana-2023-12">11 billion barrels of oil equivalent</a> off Guyana's coastsince 2015, forecasts the country will produce about 1.3 million barrels a day once the company's six projects are online in 2027. That amount rivals Qatar's current output and would rank Guyana among the world's 20 largest oil producers. Guyana ramped up production to more than 600,000 barrels a day earlier this year, fueling roughly 50% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">GDP growth</a> in the first half and putting Guyana on track to grow about 43% this year, Ali said in an August webcast. Real GDP soared by about 62% in 2022 then 33% in 2023, while GDP per capita has surged from $7,000 in 2020 to around $26,000 this year, International Monetary Fund data shows. <h2>Sharing the wealth</h2>Guyana's payment to its people "sounds like great news," Karl Widerquist, a philosophy professor at Georgetown University-Qatar and the author of several books about universal basic income (UBI) told BI. He described the one-time distribution as "basic capital" or a "stakeholder grant" instead of a basic income, but said "it's a big step in that direction if they go through with it." UBI typically refers to a recurring cash payment made to every individual in a society regardless of their wealth, with no restrictions on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-people-spend-universal-basic-income-ubi-food-housing-transportation-2024-4">how the money is spent</a> and no requirement to pay it back. Proponents hail it as a safety net against poverty that relieves financial strain and frees people to change jobs, start businesses, and weather periods of bad luck without stressing about paying their bills. Guyana's one-off, unconditional cash grant is a "positive step," Cleo Goodman, the basic income lead at the Autonomy Institute think tank, told BI. "This is a welcome injection of cash for citizens." However, she noted a guaranteed, regular income would be a "much more comprehensive commitment to redistributing this newfound wealth." Guyana was colonized by the Netherlands before Britain gained control in the late 18th century. The nation, which shares borders with Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname, became independent in 1966. Correction: October 18, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mistakenly reported an outdated version of the policy. Guyana announced Wednesday it had decided to give the equivalent of $500 to every adult, rather than a higher amount to each household as previously planned. The story also misstated the value of the previously announced figure in US dollars. It was $1,000 a household, not $2,000.

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks were mostly flat on Thursday after a deep rout on Wednesday.</li><li>The Nasdaq and the S&amp;P 500 are coming off their worst single-day drops since 2022.</li></ul>US stocks were little changed on Thursday, looking to erase some of the deep losses incurred in Wednesday's session. Traders were assessing tech weakness and hotter-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter.The Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 are looking to recover from their worst single days since 2022, which saw them slip 3.6% and 2.3%, respectively.Investors' top concern is slowing tech earnings growth after Tesla and Alphabet both reported disappointing results on Tuesday. Following a period of stellar growth and stock gains, markets are assessing whether the latest sell-off is full-on correction or merely a soft reset."There are a cocktail of reasons affecting different parts of the market ranging from cost and profitability of AI investments, weakening consumer outlook, trade tariffs and sanctions on sales to China and the anticipation of a new rate cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve," Mike Owens, senior sales trader at Saxo, said Thursday."Some of the equity sell off feels completely logical, investors can crystallize tech stock profits and still lock in over 4% yield on government bonds rather than risk losing 5-6% a day on some of the favoured equity names."Tech bulls see the sell-off as a short-lived blip, arguing that the market is still in the earliest stages of an AI capex boom that will continue to drive fresh gains."Patience will be required on the AI spending payback as we have discussed on Microsoft, Google, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Apple and many other tech names," Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives wrote Thursday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,424.92, down less than 0.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,973.61, up 0.3% (120 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,278.95, down 0.4%</li></ul>Meanwhile, investors are digesting second-quarter GDP data, which showed the US economy grew by 2.8%. That's much higher than estimates of 2.1% and higher than the first quarter's revised reading of 1.4%."The US economy is much stronger than people realize and to the extent that markets were worried about a growth slowdown, they should breathe a sigh of relief after this morning's GDP number," Chris Zaccarelli, CIO of Independent Advisor Alliance, said."The 2.8% growth in the economy above and beyond inflation is very impressive, and the recent pullback in stocks will likely prove to be a buying opportunity."The data could reset rate-cut bets as the Fed deals with a hotter economy and less wiggle room to slash interest rates multiple times in the last few months of the year.Markets still see an 85% chance the Fed cuts rates at the September meeting, and strong odds of cuts at the November and December meetings, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Next up on Friday, traders will be assessing the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Personal consumption expenditures are expected to show inflation rose 2.5% last month.Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-signals-flash-outlook-healthy-bull-rally-more-upside-2024-7">There are four bullish signals</a> pointing to more gains ahead for the stock market, Bank of America said.</li><li>There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-the-big-rotation-trade-is-from-cash-to-stocks-2024-7">big rotation from cash to stocks</a> — and it could help push the S&amp;P 500 up 17% by the end of the year, according to UBS.</li><li>The stock market is approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-q2-gdp-pce-earnings-drive-stocks-higher-2024-7">two catalysts that could help spark the next leg of the bull run</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-outlook-inflation-housing-job-market-unemployment-economy-2024-7">The Fed is going to cut rates only once in 2024</a> as shelter inflation is too high and the job market remains too hot, Vanguard said.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Oil futures were down. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.7% to $77.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was down 0.9% to $81 a barrel.<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dropped 2% to $2,363.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.219%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin </a>fell 4% to $64,303.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks waffle after sell-off as traders mull tech weakness and GDP data     

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="1645850" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russians" source="Orion">Russians</keyword> are spending money freely, with consumption per capita surging over 20% from 2021 to 2023.</li><li>The spending comes on the back of an overheated economy, with growth driven by wartime state spending.</li></ul>Russia's economy is booming, and some people are spending generously, sending prices up. Russia posted 3.6%<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-2024-gdp-growth-seen-matching-2023-36-finance-minister-says-2024-04-19/"> GDP growth last year.</a> The unemployment rate hit a record low of 2.6% in April, as men continued heading to the war's front amid a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">brain drain.</a> The labor crunch has driven up wages, contributing to high inflation running over 9% on an annual basis — well above the official 4% target. On Friday, the Russian central bank warned — yet again — of an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-central-bank-governor-nabiullina-warns-overheating-inflation-interest-2023-12">overheating economy</a> when it hiked rates from 16% to 18%in an attempt to rein in price gains. "The GDP growth rates remained high in 2024 Q1 and Q2, while inflation was accelerating. This suggests that overheating in the economy has remained considerable," said Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's central bank governor, on Friday during her rate hike announcement. Despite sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Russia's economy</a> hasn't broken down and even appears resilient, as it's now being driven by wartime state spending on military activities and subsidies. <h2>Russians are traveling and spending on culture and hotels</h2>The rate hike from Russia's central bank comes amid a spending boom in the country where many appear to be spending very freely, even amid the war and Western sanctions, as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c">Financial Times reported on Friday.</a> Overall, consumption per capita has increased by over 20% from 2021 to 2023, with spending on tourism a standout, surging over 90%, according to the FT's analysis of official data. Spending on culture, hotels, transportation services, and personal services has also jumped. A resident in Moscow told the FT that her neighbor has been showing off photos of a pet lion. "Everyone who is upper-middle class, they're just enjoying a really good life," Sergei Ishkov, a Moscow investor and entrepreneur, told the media outlet. "Consumption is booming due to a combination of massive budget spending and labor force shortages leading to strong wage pressures," wrote Bartosz Sawicki, a market analyst at fintechConotoxia, in a Friday note. But military spending, which is around 7% of GDP, is leading to "serious macroeconomic imbalances," Sawicki added. <h2>Russia's central bank may hike rates again if necessary</h2>Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia's GDP will grow 3.5% to 4% this year from a year ago. But next year, it's likely to slow to 0.5% to 1.5% year-over-year growth. She added that the Russian central bank would keep its key interest rate high for as long as needed to bring inflation back to its target. If necessary, it could even impose more rate hikes to reduce economic risks. "Labour force and production capacity reserves have been almost exhausted," said Nabiullina on Friday. "Shortages of these resources might cause a situation where the economic growth will be slowing down despite any attempts to boost demand." Furthermore, any attempt to stimulate demand would only stoke even more inflation. That could create "a scenario of stagflation that could only be stopped by way of a deep recession," she warned, explaining the central bank's steep rate hike. The central bank next meets on September 13.

Some Russians are spending like no tomorrow with 'considerable' overheating in the economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's economy is staring at "near stagnation," according to Anders Åslund.</li><li>The Swedish economist thinks sanctions are biting into economic growth. </li></ul>Russia's economy is coming closer to a near-stop — and Moscow looks bound to run out of resources to fund its war against Ukraine.That's according to Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist who says Russia's economy is taking a bigger hit from Western sanctions than some believe.While Putin has blown off the impact of Western restrictions, sanctions could be knocking off as much as 3% of Russia's GDP each year, Åslund estimated — the equivalent of $56.4 billion a year, given <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/economy/1743227">Russia's current dollar GDP</a> of $1.88 trillion in 2023."Contrary to what the Kremlin would like others to believe, time is not on Russia's side," Åslund wrote in an op-ed for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-war-economy-weakening-under-sanctions-by-anders-aslund-2024-10">Project Syndicate</a> on Tuesday. "My own view is that the current sanctions regime shaves off 2-3% of GDP each year, condemning Russia to near stagnation. Moreover, the situation will get only worse for Putin, perhaps even impeding this campaign of aggression against Ukraine."Russia's GDP technically grew 3.6% last year, with another <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">3.2% real GDP growth expected in 2024</a>, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. But economists have noted that much of Russia's growth has been fueled by aggressive government <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">spending on the war</a>, while longer-term indicators of economic health have soured.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">Labor productivity</a>, for instance, dropped more than 3% last year, thanks partly to an ongoing brain drain in the nation's workforce.Russia's energy business, which supplies a major portion of its total revenue is also struggling. Moscow's <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">oil and gas revenue dropped</a> by nearly a quarter in 2023, thanks to tumbling oil prices and sanctions targeting the nation's energy trade.Inflation, meanwhile, is roaring. <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/economy/1847635">Consumer prices rose 8.5% year-per-year</a> the week of September 17, according to official figures from Russia's Economic Development Ministry. It's likely prices are running even hotter than what those figures suggest, Åslund said, pointing to a long history of Russia understating inflation numbers during the time of the Soviet Union."The only sectors of the Russian economy that are growing are the military and related infrastructure, where state-owned companies sell to the state at (probably inflated) administered prices. The rest of the economy is flat at best," Åslund wrote.Russia is also in a tough spot when it comes to financing the war against Ukraine. The nation has had difficulty borrowing cash from other countries after it was shut out of SWIFT, the global financial communications system, which means that the economy is primarily feeding off tax revenues and reserves.Russia has depleted a large chunk of its National Wealth Fund, which had around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-national-wealth-fund-rises-1415-bln-june-1-2024-06-05/">$56 billion</a> left in liquid assets at the start of June, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.While Russia has moved to raise <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1816407">personal</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1816413">corporate taxes</a>, that's unlikely to make a huge difference in the grand scheme of the Kremlin's finances, Åslund said, as there aren't many bond buyers keen to pick up Russia's debt."Including all the hidden costs, Russia will probably spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year, and that figure presumably represents the peak, given the constraints imposed by Western financial sanctions," he added, suggesting Russia could only sustain its war efforts for a limited amount of time. "Whenever Russia can no longer finance a budget deficit, it will have to cut public expenditures, and its non-military outlays have already been pared to the bone."Economists have warned that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">dark and uncertain</a> future is looming for Russia, with the mounting costs of the war cannibalizing<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/putin-russia-economy-ukraine-war-wagner-mutiny-rebellion-west-sanctions-2023-7"> key parts of its economy</a>. At this point, the Kremlin's war spending is likely the only thing preventing the nation from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">slipping into an immediate recession</a>, economists told Business Insider.

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Russia's economy faces 'near stagnation' with sanctions whittling down annual GDP growth, European economist says

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