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<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>At 9:30 a.m. London time (4:30 a.m. New York) the <keyword id="6354868" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="UK">UK</keyword> will get its latest GDP figures, showing just how much the economy grew between April and June, compared to the three months before.Analysts are expecting a 0.7% boost, which would signal a solid pace of growth, following the slightly disappointing 0.4% expansion recorded for the first quarter of the year (Q1).The British economy seems to be entering a new phase, with the rapid gains in employment recorded over the last couple of years fading a little, replaced by slightly better wage growth.Here's what Lloyds Bank's morning note said about the GDP release:Official data for the quarter points to a quicker pace of expansion over Q2, with a notable gain in industrial production in April and May - driven by a surge in oil &amp; gas output - offsetting weak outturns for construction. Although the first estimate of GDP is based on data covering only about 40% of the economy's output in the quarter and over time tends to undergo revisions, at this stage of the data cycle we anticipate a 0.6% quarterly GDP gain.Barclays analysts are also expecting a 0.6% rise, while BNP Paribas economists see a 0.7% rise, in line with the consensus.Though it may not feel much like it, RBS economists note that this is actually the third longest growth streak since 1955:<div></div>We'll update this page with the full details once they're released.&#xa0; <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ferrari-california-t-specs-facts-video-drive-2015-7">The cheapest new Ferrari money can buy is absolutely gorgeous</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="JleHMzdjpIcJpld5dfaVynKzlNb_4V_q" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Here comes the latest British GDP data...

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US <keyword id="12289424" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gross-domestic-product" source="Orion">gross domestic product</keyword> grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2021.</li><li>That fell short of the median estimate of a 2.7% gain and marked the slowest growth of the COVID recovery.</li></ul>US <keyword id="12410746" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic-output" source="Orion">economic output</keyword> grew less than expected through the third quarter of 2021 as the recovery fell to its slowest pace since the pandemic began.The country's gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% over the three months that ended in September, the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">Commerce Department announced Thursday</a>. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> to grow at a 2.7% rate.The growth marked the slowest rate of expansion since the first quarter of 2020, which showed the first fallout from the COVID crisis. It also shows a sharp deceleration from the second quarter's annualized growth rate of 6.7%.Growth was driven by strong consumer spending, private investment in inventory, and state and local government spending, according to the report. Still, that was offset by declines in federal government spending, exports, and residential fixed investment. And while Americans did spend more on goods and services, the quarterly gain of 1.6% paled in comparison to the 12% boom seen in the second quarter.Several headwinds contributed to the slowdown into the fall. The story of third-quarter growth was the story of the Delta variant. Case counts started to rebound in July and peaked in mid-September. Though widespread vaccination kept virus deaths from climbing at the same rate, revived restrictions and fears of catching the virus dampened hiring through the quarter.The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shipping-crisis-lasts-till-2023-without-government-intervention-supply-chain-2021-10">global supply chain crisis</a> also weighed on the recovery. Factory backlogs, shipping delays, and widespread shortages plagued the US economy through the third quarter and left suppliers struggling to service Americans' massive demand. The quarter also lacked support from major government stimulus, which helped drive historically strong growth in recent quarters.Other factors buoyed growth and suggested the recovery held strong amid the Delta wave. While the country endured fresh economic restrictions, consumer spending <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-september-consumer-spending-delta-wave-economic-recovery-data-2021-10">continued to climb</a>. Job growth, while <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-194000-payrolls-unemployment-rate-down-to-48-2021-10">recently missing forecasts</a>, avoided turning negative, and jobless claims <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/weekly-jobless-claims-326000-benefits-unemployment-insurance-job-market-hiring-2021-10">steadily fell</a>. And while inflation <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-september-price-growth-index-economic-data-delta-wave-2021-10">has held at decade-highs</a>, monthly price increases have declined significantly from the levels seen in the second quarter.<h2>Settling into a post-pandemic economy</h2>The Thursday growth report offers the first hints at what the economy will look like after its booming growth through the pandemic. Annualized growth hovered between 2% and 3% before the pandemic slammed the economy in early 2020. Without stimulus support, widespread reopening, or the initial boost from vaccination, growth stalled to more average levels. The 2% pace represents how much the economy would've grown had the third-quarter rate lasted for a full year. It also continues a trend of less-than-stellar <keyword id="11921644" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword> prints. Growth <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gdp-q2-economic-output-complete-recovery-vaccination-reopening-infrastructure-2021-7">disappointed in the second quarter</a> as production bottlenecks and supply-chain issues held back the expansion. The first-quarter recovery pace <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-q1-gdp-economic-output-recovery-reopening-stimulus-vaccination-recession-2021-4">also missed expectations</a> despite showing historically strong growth.Digging deeper into the report shows the supply-chain problems that plagued the US in the second quarter only worsened. Factories faced difficulties ranging from hiring issues to material shortages as they tried to ramp up production. Service businesses also took a harder hit in the third quarter as the virus's resurgence hammered staffing efforts and cut spending at in-person venues.Some hope remains for the final quarter of 2021. Delta cases kept falling through October and daily case counts now sit at their lowest since late July. Measures of consumer spending have held strong. Early signals tracked by UBS economists suggest growth in October is "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-boomed-october-supply-chain-recovery-hiring-spending-ubs-forecast-2021-10#1-spending-is-rebounding-everywhere-1">far outpacing</a>" that seen in September, with hiring, spending, and production all likely to bounce back.Other experts are also optimistic that the worst of the supply-chain crisis is behind the US. There are signs the country is "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/supply-chain-crisis-end-global-forecast-jefferies-shipping-delays-2021-10">past the peak pinch</a>" and already recovering from the global mess, Jefferies economists said earlier in October. The firm expects supply chains to start healing in the holiday season and show "significant improvement" by the second half of 2022.

The US economy grew way less than expected in the third quarter - signaling the Delta wave did more damage than economists thought

Mumbai, Nov 29 () Snapping its two-day record-setting streak, market benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 336 points on Friday as investors turned jittery ahead of GDP data release.
 After plummeting 466 points during the session, the 30-share Sensex pared some losses, ending 336.36 points or 0.82 per cent lower at 40,793.81.
 The broader NSE Nifty also settled 95.10 points or 0.78 per cent down at 12,056.05.
 Yes Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding 2.50 per cent, followed by HUL that fell 2.37 per cent, M&amp;M 2.12 per cent, SBI 2.03 per cent, Tata Motors 2.03 per cent and Vedanta 1.97 per cent.
 On the other hand, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank and NTPC ended with gains.
 Investors turned cautious ahead of Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers, scheduled to be released later in the day, traders said.
 Experts are of the view that GDP growth for Q2 is expected to be lower than the 5 per cent in Q1.
 Weak cues from global markets also weighed on market mood, they added.
 Bourses in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Kospi and Seoul ended in the red as US law supporting pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong put a dampener on hopes of an early trade truce over tariffs.
 Stocks in Europe were trading on a positive note.
 On the currency front, the rupee depreciated 17 paise (intra-day) against the US dollar to 71.79.
 Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.79 per cent to USD 62.77 per barrel in futures trade. ANS
MKJ

Sensex tumbles 336 pts ahead of GDP data

Thomson ReutersBank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda attends a news conference at the BOJ headquarters in ToThe <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/USD-jpy">Japanese yen</a> slid after some disappointing GDP data.The yen was down by about 0.3% around 110.22 per US dollar around 8 a.m. ET after climbing as high as 109.44 in early action.It retraced some of its losses, trading down by 0.2% at 110.02 per dollar at 8:52 a.m. ET.The final reading showed that Japan's GDP rose by 0.3% in the first quarter, below the preliminary reading of 0.5%.Economists were expecting 0.6% growth, according to Bloomberg data."Revised data show that GDP growth was weaker last quarter than initially reported," said Marcel Thieliant, senior Japan Economist at Capital Economics, in a note. "However, the early indications for the current quarter are positive and we reiterate our 2017 GDP forecast of +1.5%.""The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming meeting," he added in a separate note. "And with inflation set to fall short of its forecasts for the current fiscal year, there is little chance of policy tightening anytime soon."As for the rest of the world, there's a lot going on Thursday. Here's the scoreboard as of 9:07 a.m. ET:<ul><li>The <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US dollar index</a> is up 0.2% at 96.98 ahead former FBI Director James Comey's testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee. In his prepared remarks, which were released Wednesday, Comey said he told President Donald Trump that he was not under investigation and that Trump asked him for his loyalty. "There is much attention drawn to today's hearing, and it will be televised live. It may make for good theater, but it is unlikely to be the kind of thing that moves the capital markets," <a href="http://www.marctomarket.com/2017/06/thursdays-show.html">argued</a> Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.</li><li>The <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/gbp-usd">British pound</a> is down 0.3% at 1.2925 against the dollar as the UK heads to the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/general-election-2017-updates-on-voting-polls-conservatives-labour-liberal-democrats-green-ukip-2017-6?r=UK&amp;IR=T?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">polls</a>. The final polls showed Theresa May's Conservative Party as holding a lead of 4 to 13 percentage points over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party. Exit polls will be published at 5 p.m. ET, and the winner will be clear by 11 p.m. ET.</li><li>The euro is down by 0.3% at 1.1227 against the dollar after the European Central Bank <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/european-central-bank-monetary-policy-decisions-june-2017-6?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">kept</a> policy on hold in June and effectively ruled out further rate cuts. Moreover, the euro area <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/Eurozone-Q1-GDP-Rises-More-Than-Estimated-1002077489?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">grew</a> at a 0.6% clip in the first quarter, ahead of the advanced reading of 0.5%.</li><li>The <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/USD-rub">Russian ruble</a> is up by 0.2% at 56.9680 per dollar, while Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, is down by 0.7% at $47.71 per barrel.</li></ul> See the latest EUR-USD movements<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/EUR-USD"> here.</a> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stanford-neuroscientist-extremely-successful-high-stress-levels-2017-5">A Stanford neuroscientist reveals something 'puzzling' in people who are extremely successful</a></h3> Please enable Javascript to watch this video

The Japanese yen is dipping after disappointing GDP data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>New data showed the US <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword> shrinking in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic crash.</li><li>Core parts of the economy, like consumer spending and business investment, actually had a strong quarter.</li></ul>The US economy just contracted for the first time since the intense lockdowns of early 2020. But there's no reason to panic.<keyword id="12289424" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gross-domestic-product" source="Orion">Gross domestic product</keyword> remains the benchmark for tracking the performance of a national economy, and data out Thursday morning painted an alarmingly bleak picture of how the US is doing. The American economy <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gdp-q1-economic-growth-inflation-omicron-wave-coronavirus-recovery-2022-4">shrank at an annualized rate of 1.4%</a>, falling extremely short of the median forecast for 1.1% growth and reversing course from the fourth quarter's 6.9% print.Despite that scary headline number, the details of the report and most other economic yardsticks show the recovery is trucking along just fine.<h2>The economy isn't as dismal as headline <keyword id="11921644" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword> suggests</h2>The headline contraction in GDP "obscures the resilience of the domestic economy," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said in a Thursday <a href="https://twitter.com/DianeSwonk/status/1519662636488667136?s=20&amp;t=a6sF2ADF6ZF-D43Wqu1pyA">tweet</a>. Data published earlier in April showed the jobs recovery <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/march-jobs-report-431000-payrolls-hiring-unemployment-rate-labor-market-2022-3">still charging forward</a> and retail spending <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-sales-march-consumer-spending-inflation-stores-restaurants-recovery-report-2022-4">at an all-time high</a> by the end of the first quarter.Other details in the GDP report back up the encouraging outlook, with consumers and businesses alike still spending big.Americans' spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the overall economy, saw a 2.7% jump, suggesting that demand remains strong even in the face of high inflation. That was fueled by a 4.3% increase in spending on services, a welcome improvement after lockdowns and virus waves starved the sector of much-needed activity.The uptick signals "consumers' wallets remained 'open for business'" despite high inflation, and spending growth is likely to pick up in the second quarter as more households indulge in travel and leisure, Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said.Business investment also picked up in the three-month period, providing another lift to overall output, suggesting that employers still see strong potential for future growth and are pouring money into expanding their operations.Altogether, consumer spending, private investment, and the strength of the housing market added more to GDP in the first quarter than in the fourth, signaling the domestic economy actually accelerated through the start of 2022, Swonk said.<h2>The headline number was dragged lower by temporary problems</h2>For starters, a drop in business inventories put a huge damper on economic output. The final months of 2021 saw firms build up their stockpiles to counter the effects of lingering supply-chain issues. That rush played a major role in boosting growth through the end of 2021. But with the inventory build-up having played out, firms cut back on such investment in 2022.That pullback alone subtracted 0.8 percentage points from the headline GDP rate, Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard University and former chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1519656260425207808?s=20&amp;t=tyLM4EpaQ7TX8tsMsGMNZQ">tweeted</a>.Trade figures put an even bigger drag on the growth gauge. The first three months of the year saw imports remain high while exporting dropped to the weakest pace since the second quarter of 2020. Since imports count negatively toward GDP, the shift subtracted a full 3.2 percentage points from growth, according to Furman. Put differently, economic output would've handily exceeded forecasts if the trade deficit wasn't so large.The fault only partially lies with the US. Part of the reason for such high imports comes down to Americans' voracious spending appetite.On the other end of the trade equation, exports were mostly lower due to weaker demand abroad. The US has enjoyed a uniquely demand-strong recovery while other economies have generally seen high inflation have a bigger effect on spending. As such, demand for US goods and services overseas was subpar through the quarter.While the economy is faring better than the GDP report suggests, it's unlikely the country repeats the stellar rebound seen through 2021. The US will likely experience slow growth later this year as inflation bites into spending and the Federal Reserve lifts interest rates, Matthew Sherwood, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said.Still, the US is "in much better shape than the headline figure would imply," and it's unlikely the country enters a new recession "given the underlying health of the domestic economy," he added.

The US economy just shrank. Here's why you shouldn't be worried.

The yield on government securities in the secondary market fell on Tuesday on value buying ahead of the scheduled release of April-June economic growth data on Wednesday. At 1.40 p.m., the yield on 10-year benchmark 6.54 per cent-2032 bond yield was trading at 7.2046 per cent as compared to 7.2534 per cent closed on the previous trading session. The GDP data for April-June is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Indian markets will remain shut on Wednesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. "We expect GDP to grow by 14.0 per cent- 14.5 per cent y-o-y in Q1 FY23 backed by low base and strong domestic demand. A broad based pickup was observed across consumption, services industry and investment," said <keyword id="14852368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ritika-chhabra-economist" source="Orion">Ritika Chhabra- Economist</keyword> and Quant Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd. The further fall in bond yields has been capped by the rise in crude oil prices in the international market. Brent crude oil which was trading at $101.46 by the closing of market hours on Monday is now trading at $104.74. According to various media reports, oil prices rose more than $3 a barrel due to OPEC+ output cuts and conflict in Libya helped to offset a strong US dollar and a dire outlook for the US growth. The rise in oil prices impacts <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> majorly because India is a major importer of crude oil for its consumption. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/india-to-benefit-as-investment-destination-as-china-slows-down-sbi-report/articleshow/93879987.cms">India to benefit as investment destination as China slows down: SBI Report</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/hcl-tech-beats-wipro-to-become-indias-third-largest-it-company/articleshow/93879712.cms">HCL Tech beats Wipro to become India’s third largest IT company</a>

Bond yield eases in early trade ahead of GDP data

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:481px"><div class="image"><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult_VPage&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ6LKDX4O&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1251&amp;RH=580#/SearchResult_VPage&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ6LKDX4O&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1251&amp;RH=580&amp;PN=1">REUTERS/Aly Song</a></div></div>Chinese <keyword id="48165" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic-data">economic data</keyword> has disappointed markets in the past few months. Here's a look at <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-april-data-in-one-chart-2013-5">April</a>, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-may-data-in-one-chart-2013-6">May</a>.
<keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> will release its Q2 <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> data at 10 p.m. ET. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for GDP to rise 7.5% year-over-year, and for real GDP to rise 1.7% quarter-over-quarter.
This isn't the only data out tonight though. We also have industrial production, fixed asset investment (FAI) and retail sales for June out at 10 p.m. ET. 
Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for industrial production to rise 9.1% YoY, year-to-date FAI ex-rural to rise 20.2% YoY, and retail sales to rise 12.9% YoY.
We've already seen a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/june-chinese-trade-data-2013-7">slump in exports</a>, driven by a government crackdown on speculative Forex inflows and a weak global economic environment. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/june-chinese-inflation-2013-7">Producer prices</a> were also negative for the 16th straight month highlighting the nation's excess capacity problems. The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/rising-chinese-rates-show-commitment-to-reform-2013-6">recent liquidity squeeze in China</a> is also expected to weigh on economic growth.
Bank of America's Ting Lu however wrote that China benefits from the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/introducing-the-li-keqiang-put-2013-7">Li Keqiang put</a> i.e. the Chinese premier will be unwilling to let growth slip below 7.5%.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/deteriorating-china-gdp-forecast-chart-2013-7">Economists have however been lowering their GDP forecasts</a> as this chart from Bloomberg BRIEF's Michael McDonough shows:
<div class="image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><a href="https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/354460075525558272/photo/1">Michael McDonough/Bloomberg BRIEF</a></div></div></div>

In Just A Few Hours We Will See How The Chinese Economy Is Doing 

With the global economic growth slowing, <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword> in its <keyword id="15509" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="research" source="Orion">research</keyword> report has revised <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s gross domestic product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) growth estimates to 7.2 per cent in FY23 from 7.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent for FY24 from 6.7 per cent. According to the report, the consumer price index (CPI) to average 6.5 per cent, whereas the earlier estimate was 7 per cent. In its latest research report, Morgan Stanley said it sees three aspects -- slower trade growth, tighter financial conditions and changes in commodity prices. While there are signs of moderation in exports, Morgan Stanley said the domestic demand will provide a partial offset with the support from government's supply side response and the reopening vibrancy to help the informal sector. The report said, the moderation in commodity prices and swifter correction in domestic food prices will improve the near term inflation. "We now expect CPI inflation to average 6.5 per cent in F23 (vs. 7 per cent earlier)," Morgan Stanley said. On the monetary policy, the report said the policy normalisation will continue pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by April 2023. "We see downside risks emanating from a weaker than expected global growth trend, supply-side-driven commodity price shock and faster than warranted tightening of financial conditions," Morgan Stanley said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sustainability/article/opinion-green-financing-in-india-need-significance-urgency-and-way-forward/articleshow/92948265.cms">OPINION: Green financing in India — Need, significance, urgency, and way forward</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/top-10-airlines-in-the-world/slidelist/92950615.cms">Top 10 Airlines in the world in 2022: Stats and performance explained</a>

Morgan Stanley cuts India's GDP growth estimate to 7.2% in FY23

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/pgoyette/155820893/">Paul Goyette, Flickr</a></div>The first estimate for first quarter U.S. <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> is out.
The U.S. economy expanded 2.5% in the first quarter, below expectations for 3.0% growth.
However, personal consumption growth was 3.2 percent, better than expectations for 2.8% growth.
Below is the full text <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2013/pdf/gdp1q13_adv.pdf">from the release</a>.
--------------------------------------
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2013.
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, residential investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
BEA plans to release the results of the 14th comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the second quarter 2013 "advance" estimate on July 31, 2013. More information on the revision is available on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov/gdp-revisions, including a link to an article in the March 2013 issue of the Survey of Current Business that discusses the upcoming changes in definitions and presentations, including capitalizing spending on research and development and on entertainment originals and measuring transactions of defined benefit pension plans on an accrual accounting basis. An article in the May Survey will describe changes in statistical methods, and an article in the September Survey will describe the estimates in detail. Revised NIPA table stubs and news release stubs will be available in June.
Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on www.bea.gov along with the Technical Note and highlights related to this release.
The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in exports, and a smaller decrease in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in imports and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.
Motor vehicle output added 0.24 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.01 percentage point from the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.10 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the fourth.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 8.1 percent, compared with an increase of 13.6 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
Services increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 13.2 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 0.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 16.7 percent. Equipment and software increased 3.0 percent, compared with an increase of 11.8 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 12.6 percent, compared with an increase of 17.6 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.8 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 5.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.2 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 8.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 14.8 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 11.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 22.1 percent. Nondefense decreased 2.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.5 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 1.03 percentage points to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.52 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $50.3 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $13.3 billion in the fourth quarter and $60.3 billion in the third.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter; it was unchanged in the fourth quarter.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income decreased $109.1 billion (3.2 percent) in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $262.3 billion (8.1 percent) in the fourth. The downturn in personal income primarily reflected a sharp downturn in personal dividend income and a sharp acceleration in contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in the calculation of personal income.
Fourth-quarter personal dividend income was boosted by the payment of accelerated and special dividends. The acceleration in contributions for government social insurance in the first quarter resulted from the expiration of the "payroll tax holiday."
Personal current taxes increased $27.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $34.3 billion in the fourth.
Disposable personal income decreased $136.3 billion (4.4 percent) in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $228.0 billion (7.9 percent) in the fourth. Real disposable personal income decreased 5.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.2 percent.
Personal outlays increased $116.3 billion (4.1 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $97.0 billion (3.4 percent) in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $313.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with $566.0 billion in the fourth.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.7 percent in the fourth. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 3.7 percent, or $146.1 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $16,010.2 billion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 1.3 percent, or $53.1 billion.
<a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm">Click here for the full release &gt;</a>

GDP RISES ONLY 2.5%, MISSES WALL STREET'S EXPECTATIONS

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.usshanson832.org/gallery-204.htm">USS Hanson</a></div>The final release for fourth-quarter U.S. <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> is out.
GDP rose 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, slightly below economists' estimates of a 0.5 percent advance. (The prior estimate released at the end of February predicted only 0.1 percent growth.)
Personal consumption growth came in at 1.8 percent, below economists' estimates of a 2.1 percent advance, which is also what the February reading predicted.
The 0.4 percent advance in the American economy in the fourth quarter is down from the 3.1 percent expansion in Q3.
Below is a summary of the data <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm">from the release</a>:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, real GDP increased 0.1 percent. While nonresidential fixed investment is higher than previously estimated, the revision to GDP has not changed the general picture of the economy (for more information, see "Revisions" on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in imports, and an acceleration in PCE.
Motor vehicle output added 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.25 percentage point from the third-quarter change. Final sales of computers added 0.10 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.11 percentage point to the third-quarter change.
<a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm">Click here for the full release &gt;</a>

US GDP RISES 0.4% IN Q4

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image">Flickr / pumpkincat210</div></div>Heads up! We are minutes away from the release of the second estimate of Q3 U.S. <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword>, due out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 AM ET.
In light of recent <keyword id="48165" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="economic-data">economic data</keyword> releases, GDP growth is now expected to have been 3.1% at an annualized rate in the third quarter, up from the initial BEA estimate of 2.8%.
Personal consumption growth is expected to clock in at 1.5%, matching the initial estimate, while the GDP price index and core PCE are expected to come in unchanged from the initial estimate as well at 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively.
We will have the full release LIVE at 8:30 AM ET. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/q3-us-gdp-second-estimate-2013-12">Click here to refresh for the latest updates »</a>

HERE COMES GDP...

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/fauxto_dkp/3685923113/sizes/o/in/photostream/">fauxto_digit via Flickr</a></div></div>Heads up! We are minutes away from the release of the first look at third-quarter U.S. <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> growth, due out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 AM ET.
Economists predict growth slowed to 2.0% at an annualized pace in Q3 from 2.5% in Q2.
Personal consumption growth is expected to have slowed to 1.6% from 1.8%.
We will have the full release LIVE at 8:30 AM ET. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/q3-us-gdp-advance-2013-11">Click here to refresh for the latest updates »</a>

HERE COMES THE FIRST LOOK AT Q3 GDP...

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>Pete Souza/Official White House photo</div>The advance estimate for fourth-quarter U.S. <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> is out.
The economy contracted 0.1 percent in Q4 versus economists' consensus expectations of a 1.1 percent expansion.
Personal consumption growth came in at 2.2 percent – slightly higher than consensus estimates of 2.1 percent – but was driven largely by a 13.9 percent advance in the consumption of durable goods.
Government spending was the largest driver of the economic contraction in the fourth quarter, subtracting 1.33 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth and falling 6.6 percent. Federal spending fell 15.0 percent, led by a 22.2 percent drop in defense spending. Federal spending on nondefense items was actually up 1.4 percent. State and local spending fell 0.7 percent.
The drawdown in private inventories was the second culprit behind the contraction, subtracting 1.27 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth after adding 0.73 percentage points to Q3 GDP growth.
However, fixed business investment surged 9.7 percent after advancing only 0.9 percent in Q3. The investment surge added 1.18 percentage points to Q4 GDP growth.
While personal consumption expenditures were the biggest positive contributor to Q4 GDP growth, adding 1.53 percentage points, they were driven largely by the spike in consumption of durable goods, up 13.9 percent from Q3. Consumption of nondurable goods was only up 0.4 percent while consumption of services was up 0.9 percent.
Exports fell 5.7 percent while imports retreated 3.2 percent. Net trade subtracted 0.81 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth.
The GDP Price Index came in at 0.6 percent – below expectations – and core PCE came in at 0.9 percent, right in line with expectations.
Below are highlights <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm">from the release:</a>
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and the "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2013.
The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The downturn in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in imports, and an acceleration in PCE.
Final sales of computers added 0.15 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.11 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.04 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.25 percentage point from the third-quarter change.
<a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm">Click here for the full release &gt;</a>

US ECONOMY SHRINKS: GDP FALLS 0.1% IN Q4

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrbeck/1982226314/">MRBECK / Flickr</a></div>The second estimate for fourth quarter U.S. <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> is out.
GDP rose 0.1 percent, missing economists' predictions of a bigger 0.5 percent gain.
Personal consumption growth came in at 2.1 percent, below both the advance estimate (2.2 percent) and expectations (2.3 percent).
The biggest positive drivers were consumption of durable goods, which contributed 1.01 percentage points to GDP growth, and nonresidential fixed investment in equipment and software, which contributed 0.79 percentage points.
The biggest factors weighing on growth were nonfarm private inventories, which subtracted 1.70 percentage points from GDP growth, and federal defense spending, which subtracted 1.28 percentage points.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/positive-gdp-mired-by-consumption-number-2013-2">UBS economist Drew Matus said in an interview with CNBC</a> following the release that while the number turned positive, the details got worse – so he would have preferred the negative number. Matus was referring to the downward revision to personal consumption growth.
<a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm">Click here for the full release &gt; </a>

GDP TURNS POSITIVE BUT MISSES EXPECTATIONS

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/corrinespictures/7521819188/">flickr/corrine klug</a></div></div>Heads up! We are minutes away from the third and final reading of second-quarter <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> growth from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, due out at 8:30 AM ET.
Economists predict GDP grew at a 2.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, which is higher than the BEA's second reading put out a month ago of 2.5%. In Q1, the economy expanded only 1.1% annualized.
Q2 personal consumption growth is expected to clock in at 1.9%, slightly higher than last month's BEA estimate of 1.8%. Either of those numbers would mark a slowdown from Q1's 2.3% pace of growth.
Core personal consumption expenditure, one of the FOMC's favorite measures of inflation, is expected to remain unchanged from last month's estimate at 0.8% in Q2.
We will have the full release LIVE at 8 AM ET. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-q2-gdp-final-2013-9">Click here to refresh for the lastest »</a>

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