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<keyword id="21354159" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-government-bonds" source="keywords">Indian Government Bonds</keyword> are set to be included in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index, <keyword id="20036608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emerging-Market" source="keywords">Emerging Market</keyword> (GBI-EM) from June 28. The inclusion will take place over a period of 10 months starting June 28, 2024, through to March 31, 2025.<br /><br />India will have a 1% weightage in the <keyword id="19967624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JPMorgan" source="keywords">JPMorgan</keyword> Emerging Market (EM) Bond index, which will gradually rise to 10% over a 10-month period, at an inclusion rate of about 1% weight per month. The inclusion is estimated to bring $20-25 billion of inflows into the Indian bond market. However, India's index-eligible bonds have already attracted $10 billion since the inclusion was announced in September last year.<br /><br />On September 21, 2023, Global index provider JPMorgan announced that it would include Indian government's bonds in its emerging market indices.<br /><br />Only Indian government bonds issued by the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) under the <keyword id="12313402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fully-Accessible-Route" source="Orion">Fully Accessible Route</keyword> (FAR) will be included in the indices. All FAR-designated IGBs maturing after December 31, 2026, will be eligible to be included in the JPMorgan Emerging Market (EM) Bond index. In the post-monetary policy press conference on June 7, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said the central bank is not worried about the big <keyword id="20072947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-inflows" source="keywords">foreign fund inflows</keyword> from global bond inclusion.<br /><br />"The RBI has a number of instrumentalities to manage the flows. We have managed it in the past and we will manage it in future also. No worries on that," Das said.<br /><br />Experts believe the index inclusion-related heavy flows is likely to boost demand for Indian government securities in the current fiscal, once short-term liquidity issues in certain papers get sorted. Vishal Gupta, Co-founder of IndiaBonds.com says the inclusion of Indian government bonds in JP Morgan Index is a watershed moment for the <keyword id="22201110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-income-markets" source="keywords">fixed-income markets</keyword> in India.<br /><br />"This compulsorily puts Indian bond markets on the radar of global bond investors and although initial investments are supposed to be to the tune of $25-30 billion, index inclusion paves the way for this number to keep growing in the next few years," said Vishal Gupta.<br /><br />Gupta further added that it is important to grow the investor base for any market, and index inclusion helps in expanding the number of players, which further benefits everyone in the form of additional market liquidity.<br /><br /> "Global investors have been looking to allocate capital to emerging markets given their reluctance to invest in other large countries like Russia or China in the past couple of years. Hence, the timing of this index inclusion is also almost perfect.<br /><br /> I reckon investments will start via government bonds initially, but filter into AAA to lower credit ratings as well in the years to come", he continued. <br /><br />

Indian government bonds to be included JP Morgan Govt bond Index from June 28

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters / John Gress</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>Goldman Sachs highlights seven of its most high-conviction trades heading into 2018.</strong></li><li><strong>The firm's recommendations are based on four core tenets, most notably robust economic growth.</strong></li></ul><p><br />With both <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/stocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stocks</a> and bonds enjoying lengthy <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/bull-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bull markets</a>, there's been no shortage of investment opportunities for traders over the past year. But what about in 2018?</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/goldman-sachs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs</a> has some ideas. In a recent note to clients, strategist Francesco Garzarelli and his colleagues have laid out seven high-conviction trades it sees paying off in a big way for investors next year.</p><p>But before we get into those, it's worth diving into the core tenets of Goldman's overall market outlook. First and foremost, the firm sees "strong and synchronous global expansion," marked by <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/gdp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gross domestic product</a> growth of roughly 4% in 2018. It also says that the global economy is at very low risk of recession, given the low likelihood that central banks will aggressively hike interest rates. Further, Goldman sees emerging markets offering great growth potential.</p><p>To contrast with those positive elements, Goldman does see "relatively high" risk of temporary market sell offs, especially given how extended valuations are across asset classes. The firm highlights rising wages and a possible shift in investor psychology around the unwinding of central bank balance sheets as two particularly worrisome factors.</p><p>Got all that? Great, let's dive into Goldman's list of top trades:</p><h2>1) Short 10-year US Treasurys</h2><p>Goldman sees this as a way to position for more rate hikes from the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/federal-reserve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federal Reserve</a>. The firm forecasts that the yield on 10-year Treasurys will climb towards 3% in 2018, to a level not seen since 2014. It also says that the path of the Fed's policy change being priced in by markets is too flat, relative to Goldman economist projections.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>2) Go long EUR/JPY with a target of 140 and a stop at 130</h2><p>This trade, involving going long the euro versus the Japanese yen, is built to profit from a continued rotation around a flat <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US dollar</a>. With most global economies growing simultaneously, Goldman says this is a way to still profit from a divergence in capital flows. And in the firm's mind, opposing moves in the euro and yen will make for a nice opportunity.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>3) Go long the MSCI Emerging Markets stock index</h2><p>Goldman sees this trade as a way to capitalize on the growth cycle in emerging markets. It notes that EM growth is "above-trend and rising" - and when it's doing that, it generally outperforms on a volatility-adjusted basis. Further, Goldman sees great opportunity for EM-based countries to report earnings growth that surprises to the upside.</p><h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></h2><h2>4) Go long euro area 5-year/5-year forward inflation with a target of 2% and a stop at 1.5%</h2><p>Goldman recommends doing this using euro-denominated inflation swaps, because it sees the risk premium on euro area forward inflation depressed at the moment, creating an ideal entry point for a trade. The firm sees that premium increasing from here, driven by continued monetary accommodation by the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/european-central-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">European Central Bank</a>.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>5) Go long the Emerging Markets Global Bond Index, while shorting the US High Yield Corporate Bond Index</h2><p>Goldman recommends this trade in order to position for strength in an EM credit cycle that's "younger and friendlier" than its US counterpart, which is getting long in the tooth. The firm notes that unlike most EM-based trades, this particular one hasn't fully recovered from a post-US election sell off, creating opportunity.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>6) Go long an equal-weighted basket of the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won vs. an equal-weighted basket of the Singapore dollar and Japanese yen</h2><p>Goldman says that the long basket of Asian currencies provides "diversified exposure to the strong global growth we forecast in 2018," as well as a handful of bullish country-specific factors. The recommendation also takes advantage of the low yields offered by the currencies in the short basket, using them to fund the trade.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>7) Go long a volatility-weighted basket of the Brazilian real, Colombian peso and Peruvian sol vs. a short US dollar bet</h2><p>Goldman recommends this due to continued global growth it sees supporting a rally in industrial metals - and the three South American countries included in the long basket offer exposure to metals.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Goldman Sachs</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p>  <p class="tagline">Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/GS-Quote"> here.</a></p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-flashing-warning-signs-2017-11">The stock market is flashing warning signs</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

GOLDMAN SACHS: Here's how to make a killing on the 7 top trades of 2018

<div style="float: right; margin: 15px 0 20px 20px;"><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2"><a href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/category/chart-of-the-day"> </div><p></p></div></div>In its new Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF discusses correlations in a section title "When Market Liquidity Vanishes," a read that's been described as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-imf-has-a-warning-on-volatility-in-global-markets-thats-not-for-the-faint-hearted-2015-4">"not for the faint-hearted."</a></p><p>"Correlations among risk-adjusted returns of major asset classes have increased markedly since 2010," the IMF writes. "The correlation of the S&amp;P 500 with U.S. high-yield indices has shown a steep increase, and the correlation with commodities has increased fourfold. <strong>The substantial rise in correlations between asset markets in advanced and emerging market economies points to an increased possibility of contagion or spillovers in periods of stress.</strong>"</p><p>In short, contagion means that bad things affecting one part of the economy or market is affecting other parts of the economy or market.</p><p>The IMF argues these elevated correlations only increase the urgency for which regulators address potentially destabilizing market events.</p><p>"The increase in correlations during stress periods suggests greater risks of contagion across asset classes or borders," they continued. "It also points to the importance of liquidity as an amplifier of other risk factors. Consequently, policies that address the sources of low liquidity should be seen as part of a comprehensive financial stability framework."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-sex-happy-couples-have-every-month-relationships-science-2015-3">Here's how much sex happy couples have every month</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="kzam9yczoRday4iMwxqmAYMJtrg2etNb" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

The risk of a market shock causing spillovers is worse today than it was before the financial crisis

<p>While <keyword id="6359891" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="emerging-markets">emerging markets</keyword> account for 51% of global GDP, they represent only 12% of global stock market capitalization, according to BlackRock.</p>
<p>This means there's tremendous room for growth and opportunity for investors. But this also doesn't mean that the countries with the highest GDP growth offer the best returns. </p>
<p>BlackRock's Jeff Shen and Rodolfo Martell write that investors interested in emerging market stocks should realize the landscape has changed, and that "for investors who want to develop their portfolios, the developing world is an unmatched source of potential.."</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Investors may need to fundamentally rethink what it means to be an investor in emerging markets. The same methodologies that served them well since MSCI launched the first comprehensive EM index 25 years ago may not provide adequate risk-adjusted returns over the next 25. In fact, the MSCI EM Index represents only 4% of the stocks listed in the emerging world. The MSCI EM Small Cap Index covers an additional 9%. We're not suggesting it would be possible, or even desirable, to track all 18,000 listed EM stocks. But we strongly believe there is great opportunity to add value through in-depth research and security selection. We suggest equity investors re-examine their holdings both at the broad index level and the individual security level.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"We would also point out that EM investing entails more than investing in companies that are domiciled in developing countries. In an era of increasing globalization, many companies located in the developed world derive a significant portion of their revenue from the emerging world, while the reverse holds true for many companies headquartered in EMs. As companies expand their footprint globally, their revenues become more diversified. You need not invest in an EM-domiciled country to benefit from EM growth."</p>
<p>In terms of emerging market debt they write that what was "once considered a high-risk, niche asset class, should be considered a prime candidate for inclusion in a diversified portfolio." </p>
<p>"In addition to the improved fundamentals, investors may also find that an allocation to EM debt helps to capture some of the exposure to GDP that is missing from their equity approach."</p>
<p>The average investor is underweight EMs and has an allocation of only 5%. Shen and Martell think this should be closer to 18%.</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:800px"><div class="image"><p class="source"><a href="https://www2.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/market-insight/market-commentary/developing-your-portfolio-with-developing-markets">BlackRock</a></p></div></div></p>

BlackRock: Investors Need To Fundamentally Rethink What It Means To Invest In The Emerging Markets

<p><em><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Oppenheimer Funds</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></em></p><ul><li><strong>Smart beta is a rapidly growing area of the ETF market, as it allows providers to give an analytical slant to traditional fund indexing.</strong></li><li><strong>OppenheimerFunds offers a suite of ETFs that use a proprietary revenue-weighting methodology.</strong></li><li><strong>One of the firm's funds was recently named Smart Beta ETF of the Year by a trade publication.</strong></li><li><strong>We spoke to Sharon French, the firm's head of beta solutions, about her smart beta and the most pressing issues facing markets today.</strong></li><li><strong>She doesn't buy arguments that the rise of ETFs has suppressed stock market volatility.</strong></li></ul><p> </p><p><span>It's tough to stand out in </span>the increasingly crowded <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/etfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">exchange-traded fund</a> industry.</p><p>New funds are launched every day as exchanges clamor to be the place where they're listed, all while investors flock in droves to the most appealing offerings.</p><p>Once designed to simply track indexes, the focus of ETFs has broadened considerably. There are funds that replicate specific investment strategies or styles, while some <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ai-powered-equity-etf-stock-aieq-market-robot-revolution-2017-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">use advanced technology</a> in order to assess stocks for possible inclusion.</p><p>Meanwhile, others seek to combine the passive approach of mirroring an index with a more active stockpicking approach - a strategy known as "smart beta." This particular area of ETFs is booming, as it allows providers to flex their analytical muscles, then overlay it onto a universe of companies. In an industry inundated with countless ideas, it's a way to offer something new, and investors have responded with great interest.</p><p>That's where OppenheimerFunds comes in. The fund provider has introduced a novel approach to the ETF world, by first selecting the components of a specific index, and then weighting them not by market cap - the most common method - but by revenue. The firm's suite of 10 sales-weighted ETFs have a combined market value of more than $2 billion.</p><p>In fact, the roughly $500 million <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/Oppenheimer-Ultra-Dividend-Revenue-ETF" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oppenheimer Ultra Dividend Revenue ETF</a> (ticker: RDIV) was given the Smart Beta ETF of the Year award earlier in 2017 by <em><a href="http://fundintelligence.global/fundaction/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Fund Action</a></em>, an online publication that covers the space. The fund includes the <a href="https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-900" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">S&amp;P 900</a> index securities with the highest trailing 12-month dividend yield, and then weights them by sales.</p><p><a href="https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/advisors/personalities/sharon-french" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sharon French</a>, the head of beta solutions at OppenheimerFunds and a pioneer of the revenue-weighted approach, spoke with Business Insider about her firm's efforts on the revenue-weighting front, and shared some details around the genesis of their award-winning fund. She also shared some thoughts on overall market conditions, and addresses one of the biggest criticisms of ETFs.</p><p>Here's what she had to say:</p><p><em>This interview has been edited for clarity and length.</em></p><p><strong>Joe Ciolli: </strong>OppenheimerFunds has been a pioneer of the "revenue weighting" ETF strategy. Can you discuss how that came about, and why it's a good approach?</p><p><strong>Sharon French: </strong>We're the first and only firm to take this approach. It started back in 2008, and the first product was RWL (Oppenheimer Large Cap Revenue ETF), which revenue weighted the S&amp;P 500. If you're buying the S&amp;P, you're buying an index that, because of the market-weighted nature of it, has a propensity to get overly concentrated into a single stock or sector. That brings a lot of unintended risk to the strategy. This really is a much better long-term strategy that offers diversified exposure to the market, isn't as influenced by stock price and is a truer reading of a company's value.</p><p>When you backtest it, you find that it's outperformed.</p><p>It's an alternative weighting technique that really lowers the price-to-sales of your overall portfolio, which is very beneficial. Historically, low price-to-sales relative to market cap has been a better indicator of longer-term returns than other valuation measures.</p><p><strong>Ciolli: </strong>What does the future hold for this revenue-weighting innovation?</p><p><strong>French: </strong>We have a suite of 10 revenue-weighted funds, including those with large, mid, and small-cap focuses. We also have international, EM and global funds, as well as two with an ESG focus. And we have more revenue-weighted offerings scheduled for 2018.</p><p><strong>Ciolli: </strong>Stepping back from your specific products and looking at the big picture - the bull market is looking unstoppable as it goes into its ninth year - how does that shape your approach to things in the ETF business?</p><p><strong>French: </strong>Our view, based on certain key indicators that we follow very closely over time, is that this is an elongated US credit and business cycle that we believe will persist through the second half of 2017 and into 2018, with the caveat that risks are rising.</p><p>Most of the risks are centralized in the US and really not in other major economies. The focus in the US is really centered on the Fed.</p><p>The US unemployment rate is low, wages are climbing and the dollar is weakening, so our question is: when will the Fed raise rates, and what kind of impact will that have? That's really where we're focused.</p><p>The Fed intends to reduce the size of its balance sheet, though it will likely be able to successfully navigate that process without issue. But the tightening monetary policy and the flattening yield curve must be considered in combination with elements like modest growth, heightened equity valuations and tighter credit spreads. They're typically not consistent with some of the outsized valuations and returns we're seeing in the market. Once that trigger event starts to happen, that's when we'll start to get more concerned.</p><p>We think international markets are likely to outperform the US, and many international economies are in a better part of the economic cycle. Equity valuations are generally more attractive there, and policies are more certain.</p><p><strong>Ciolli: </strong>What do you make of the low-volatility environment? And how does it affect the approach of ETF providers such as yourself?</p><p><strong>French: </strong>There are different factors - low volatility included - that perform better during different types of cycles. Specifically looking at low volatility, it typically does better during a slowdown or contraction. We really haven't been in one. We believe that's somewhere out in the future, but not any time in the very near term. During times like this, we've found that growth and momentum strategies have done better. We take the different stages of cycles into account when developing ETF products, and help clients arrange their portfolios accordingly.</p><p><strong>Ciolli: </strong>What's your approach to that sort of portfolio construction? Do you recommend people hold a blend of multiple factors?</p><p><strong>French: </strong>We're introducing single factors, simply because our clients vary in terms of their approaches. They like to use the building blocks to construct a portfolio, depending on the type of market we're in. For example: Size and value tend to outperform during bull markets, while dividend and low-volatility do better during bear markets.</p><p>Once you take a longer-term approach, you can either buy a multi-factor strategy off the shelf, or you can take what's available today with single factors. We do strongly advise that, instead of picking one or two to time the market, that you construct them according to the market environment, and potentially a shift that's either happened or is forthcoming.</p><p><strong>Ciolli: </strong>As a smart beta provider, how do you respond to the active managers who have blamed low market volatility on the rise of ETFs?</p><p><strong>French: </strong>To a large extent, I disagree that low volatility is being created by ETFs.</p><p>There is no single resounding explanation to the lower levels of volatility we've seen recently. You will still see spikes in volatility due to market-related or economic events.</p><p>When you think about smart beta, it really combines a lot of the attractive benefits of the three main areas of investing: active, passive and alternatives. What I'm finding is that active managers are starting to appreciate that. I feel like it's a tool for better risk management of the portfolio, and better risk-adjusted return at the end of the day.</p><p><strong>Ciolli: </strong>What about your ESG offerings? How would you describe your approach there?</p><p><strong>French: </strong>We consider incorporating elements of environmental, social and governance within our investment analysis as a fiduciary responsibility of ours, and it's a key focus of our firm. It really starts with our fundamental active strategies, and then applying these elements to the process where it makes sense.</p><p>Incorporating elements of environmental, social and governance within our investment analysis is a fiduciary responsibility of ours, and it's a key focus of our firm. It really starts with our fundamental active strategies, and then applying those three elements to them.</p><p>We did introduce, in different wrappers, two ESG funds, and purposely made them broad-based, utilizing both the domestic and global markets. We were getting a lot of client demand looking for ESG opportunities in both areas.</p><p>Overall, we have a very full research pipeline that we're working through and sequencing which products we'll offer next.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-debate-rages-speculative-bubble-2017-10">The bitcoin debate rages on</a></h3>        <div>                    </div>    </div>

A pioneer in the booming ETF industry breaks down her approach to the world's hottest investment product

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="Yale via Schwab.com" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/547e350becad04af656044d2-960/file-2.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Don-t-You-Worry-bout-a-Thing-Tell-That-to-Individual-Investors">Yale via Schwab.com</a></span></p></div><p></p></div></div><em><strong>FA Insights is a daily newsletter from Business Insider that delivers the top news and commentary for financial advisers. </strong></em></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Don-t-You-Worry-bout-a-Thing-Tell-That-to-Individual-Investors">Investors Are Getting Increasingly Worried About A Market Crash</a> (Charles Schwab)</strong></p>
<p>Investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders considers several measures of individual and institutional investor sentiment in her latest market perspective note<span>. Among other things, she considers the Yale School of Management's Crash Confidence Index.<br /></span></p>
<p><span>"It should come as no surprise that the all-time low in this survey was near the crescendo of the financial crisis in late-2008," Sonders notes. "At that time, confidence among individuals and institutions was nearly equally low that there would be no market crash. Earlier this year, the reading ticked up to its highest level of the current bull market, meaning investors were less worried about a crash. But what's most interesting lately is that alongside a very strong market rally since October, this survey has dropped noticeably, meaning investors' worries about a crash have gone up alongside the market's rally."</span></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141201/FREE/141209996/nicholas-schorsch-steps-back-from-some-nontraded-reits">Schorsch Resigned As CEO From At Least 6 Companies He Oversaw</a> (Investment News) </strong></p>
<p>In the latest development of the unraveling of the Schrosch empire, Nicholas Schorsch has resigned as CEO from at least six companies he has been overseeing (<span>three of which are nontraded REITs)</span>, reports Bruce Kelly. Schorsch's investment partner, William Kahane, will be taking over two of them.</p>
<p>"Separating the role of chairman and CEO is regarded as a positive for corporate government in REITs and the corporate world in general, according to Kevin Gannon, president and managing director at Robert A. Stanger &amp; Co. Inc, an investment bank that focuses on nontraded REITs," reports Kelly.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/12/01/worlds-ultrawealthy-population-grows-6-in-2014">The Ultrawealthy Population Grew By 6% This Year</a> (Think Advisors)</strong></p>
<p>The ultrawealthy population of the world (defined as those individuals with assets of $30 million or more) grew by 6% in 2014. Their combined assets grew by 7%, reports Michael S. Fischer.</p>
<p>The Middle East saw the largest increase in the ultrawealthy population, at 12.7%, followed by Africa with an 8.3% increase. Latin America and the Caribbean saw the smallest increase at 4.6%.</p>
<p>Altogether, the ultrawealthy make up 0.0004% of the world's population, but control 12.8% of the wealth.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_InvComGlobalBondDuration">Global Bonds Are Going To See Lower Volatility Despite Longer Duration</a> (Vanguard) </strong></p>
<p><span>"Duration is a less effective measure of interest rate risk for globally diversified bond portfolios," writes Vanguard's Brian Scott. The problem with using duration as a metric is that it assumes a uniform rise or fall in interest rates for bonds of all maturities and issuers, he adds. But that's not how things work in the real world: Bond values are affected unevenly.</span></p>
<p><span>Additionally, "the yield for global bonds, similar to duration, isn't very meaningful when comparing them with domestic bonds," writes Scott.</span></p>
<p><span>Instead, "in a rising-rate environment, hedged global bonds can play a powerful role in diversifying risk and reducing the interest rate exposure of any one government," writes Scott."</span></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/wisdomtree_120214.php">The Strong Dollar Is Here To Stay</a> (Advisor Perspectives) </strong></p>
<p><span><span>"In our view, this summer's [dollar] rally does not represent a correction or near-term adjustment, but rather the continuation of a broader trend that started in the middle of 2011. Should our analysis prove correct, we believe this period of dollar strength could just be getting started," writes Bradley Krom.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>There are three reasons the dollar strength could stay. First, the US economy is diverging from its developed market peers in relative growth rates, potential changes in monetary policy, and in inflation outlook. Second, EM currencies are "appear less attractive" than the US dollar. And third, the "recent upswing in US economic momentum has caused not just a rebound in US asset prices, but an increase in the strength of the US dollar as well," writes Krom.</span></span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>

Investors Are Getting Increasingly Panicked About A Potential Stock Market Crash

<ul><li><strong>Kristina Hooper is chief investment strategist of $917 billion Invesco and has two decades' experience.</strong></li><li><strong>She sat down with Business Insider to talk stocks, tax reform, and monetary policy.</strong></li></ul><p><br />With over two decades' experience in investing and wealth management, Kristina Hooper has seen more than a few market booms and busts.</p><p>Now the chief investment strategist for <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/IVZ-Quote">Invesco</a>, a $917.5 billion investment-management company based in Atlanta, Hooper is optimistic that the current market rally will continue.</p><p>Business Insider Executive Editor Sara Silverstein recently caught up with Hooper for an episode of "The Bottom Line" to talk US stocks, emerging markets, tax reform, and the Federal Reserve.</p><p><em>This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and length.</em></p><p><strong>Sara Silverstein: </strong>The first thing I want to ask you about it market valuations. Can this bull keep going or have we finally reached a point where it's enough?</p><p><strong>Kristina Hooper: </strong>This bull can go on for a while, but I do think every day this rally continues, there's more vulnerability.</p><p>We've got very stretched valuations, 17.9 times trailing price-earnings ratio. That's a little scary. That's compared to a 10-year average of 14.1 times earnings. There's vulnerability there.</p><p>I'd also argue that so much of the run-up has been due to expectations. You could almost say that the stock market is priced for legislative perfection, and I'm not sure we're going to get close to legislative perfection. So there's vulnerability there, but it doesn't mean the stock market can't run. In fact, there are two key drivers: It's still a very accommodative monetary policy, as well as a global economic-growth environment that's pretty significant.</p><p><strong>Silverstein: </strong>You have three things that you say could disrupt the equity environment. What are they?</p><p><strong>Hooper: </strong>This is really more to think about over the longer term, but there are three drivers of disruption going forward.</p><p>One we've already seen a lot of, and that's geopolitical disruption. We have great wealth inequality, which has led to a lot of populism movements around the world focused on deglobalization, and that can create some level of disruption. We've already seen a bit of that with the Brexit negotiations.</p><p>In general, geopolitical disruption is something we want to pay attention to, whether it's North Korea or in the US. Added to that we have the potential for monetary-policy disruption. Because we've lived through this for the past 10 years, I don't think many people take a step back and realize just how experimental what we've been through is. This really was an experiment. The idea of quantitative easing - large-scale asset purchases by a central bank - that was as obscure as helicopter money back a few decades ago.</p><p>As a result of our desperation, post-global-financial crisis, we invoked quantitative easing and now we have this giant balance sheet. We went from $800 billion to $4.6 trillion. Now we have to unwind it. We have to realize there were a lot of unintended consequences as the balance sheet grew, and there could be some unintended consequences as we normalize the balance sheets. While my base case is not monetary-policy disruption, I do think there's a distinct minority case for monetary-policy disruption, so we're going to want to watch that very closely.</p><p>Finally, the third thing - which is probably the most long-lasting of the three - is innovation-driven disruption. We're on the cusp of a lot of technological innovation. I think of driverless cars and how, before we know it, we're going to see them being tested in New York City.</p><p>Think about artificial intelligence, how that's changing and disrupting industries. That's likely to have one impact on the economy in terms of structural unemployment. The Uber driver, in four years, might not have a job. Similarly, we saw a newspaper-delivery person who is probably losing their job today because most people are getting it delivered on the iPads.</p><p>We're going to be experiencing a lot of structural changes in our economy, which are going to contribute to a higher level of structural unemployment. That's why tech CEOs have been advocating for basic income. Because there will be a day, maybe, in a few decades, where more income is derived from capital than from labor. That creates even greater inequality gaps.</p><p><strong>Silverstein: </strong>You mentioned the market is priced based on legislative perfection. What's the one thing that could make it all fall apart? What's that most dependent on?</p><p><strong>Hooper: </strong>It's most dependent on the corporate tax cut of this large tax plan. What we've seen thus far is something of a wish list. We're likely to see a lot of negotiation, bartering, horse trading. What needs to be preserved is that 20% corporate tax rate as well as that immediate expensing of capital investment. That's what directly impacts companies, their balance sheets, their earnings, and that's what needs to come to fruition in order to support the stock market.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Drew Angerer/Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">US President Donald Trump and Kevin Brady, the Texas Republican and chairman of the US House Ways and Means Committee.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><strong>Silverstein: </strong>It seems the market thinks that will happen. Do you think it will?</p><p><strong>Hooper: </strong>There's a better chance than not, but I do think that there are a lot of obstacles between here and there. I'll also point out that Wall Street analysts are very good at crunching numbers. The wheelhouse is going through numbers and figuring out exactly what's going to happen. It's a lot harder to do analysis of where votes will come from in Congress and how exactly different factions of Congress will shape a tax reform bill. Once we know that there is a bill and it will be voted on, it becomes easier. Certainly once that bill is voted on, it's much easier to assess the impact to individual companies. Right now we're in a stage where it's a guessing game.</p><p><strong>Silverstein: </strong>When we look at the stretched valuations, is there any place where you see value in the markets, in the US or globally?</p><p><strong>Hooper: </strong>There's certainly a lot of value to be had globally, but there's also some value to be had in the US.</p><p>Globally, if we were to just look at different indices, we'd see lower valuations. Even the emerging-markets base, the MSCI emerging-markets index, has a lower valuation than that of the S&amp;P 500 and it has higher growth rates. The EM space is a wonderful addition to a portfolio - it's a great complement to domestic stocks. It will actually lower valuations and bring up growth rates. It's also true that international developed markets, particularly in Europe, look attractive because expectations are so low. To me, this is the kind of environment where, even though diversification hasn't really paid off in the last few years, it will pay off in terms of being well diversified internationally and having additional asset classes.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Getty</span></p><p class="caption">Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Within the US, there are still bargains to be had. There are also areas where we want to pay for growth. For example, tech stocks still look very attractive. Valuations are not sky high when you compare them to historical valuations over the last two decades. In addition, those are areas where we're seeing pretty significant earnings and revenue growth over the next year or two. It's a good place to be.</p><p>Also dividend-paying stocks. One message that continues to come through loud and clear about current monetary policy is that it's still accommodative and is only going to slowly get less accommodative.</p><p>This is an environment where rates are going to be lower for longer. That means the hunt for income continues, and one way to get income is through dividends. Dividend-paying stocks, especially those companies that are increasing their dividends, that have generous dividends, that's an area to be focused on in the US.</p><p><strong>Silverstein: </strong>Is there one piece of advice you would give to the new Fed chair?</p><p><strong>Hooper: </strong>I think that when the history books are written about monetary policy, particularly post-global-financial-crisis, they will be kind to Janet Yellen. They're going to say that data-dependent rate hikes made sense for this kind of environment. The idea that Janet Yellen is looking at a mosaic of data as opposed to just a few factors. Even the way she looked at unemployment and the labor market, she didn't just look at the unemployment rate - she looked at the labor market conditions index [LMCI].</p><p>To me, getting an understanding of the bigger picture and looking at all the different variables in the economy. For example, we have a very significant portion of America that really hasn't participated in this recovery - so trying to find ways to factor that into monetary policy makes sense.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Yuri Gripas/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">The outgoing Federal Reserve board chair, Janet Yellen.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>My advice to the next Fed chair is to not throw out the baby with the bathwater, to really have an appreciation for some of the policies - that careful thoughtfulness that helped steer us through the last decade - and to try to adopt a lot of that. Data-dependent monetary policy makes sense, being very careful and thoughtful about balance-sheet normalization makes sense, so hopefully there will be some continuation of those policies going forward.</p>

We talked to the chief investment strategist at $920 billion fund giant Invesco about where you should invest right now

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Suzanne Plunkett/AP</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>The stock market had a wild ride this week. And it ultimately ended up even better than it started. </p><p>This week we saw a 1,000 point drop in the Dow in minutes, another drop of around 600 points in an hour of trading, and another day that saw one of the largest single-day point gains for the Dow in history.</p><p>The madness got the attention of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-down-election-2015-8">presidential candidates</a>, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ian-shepherdson-moves-fed-rate-hike-to-december-2015-8">the Federal Reserve</a>, and a whole <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-google-search-2015-8">trove of people</a> that generally don't pay that much attention to the market.</p><p>But here's the not-so-secret secret: for all the noise, at the end of the week it looked like almost nothing happened.</p><p>The market's wild swings amounted to almost no movement to the major indexes for the week. The Dow finished up about 700 points, or 0.9%, opening Monday at 15,920.31 and closing Friday at 16,643.01.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Business Insider</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>The S&amp;P 500 finished the week up about 80 points, or 1.1%, from 1909.67 at the open Monday to 1,988.87 at the close Friday.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>Business Insider</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>The Nasdaq was up more than 400 points, or 2.6%, on the week after opening at 4,351.61 Monday to close at 4,828.33 on Friday.</p><p>It may have been a crazy ride, but on just a price basis, things look even better than where we started.</p><h2>How we got here</h2><p>There are a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/explanations-for-the-black-monday-stock-market-crash-2015-8">lot of theories</a> on why the markets erupted into chaos this week.</p><p>Most fingers point first to a collective worry over the weakness of the Chinese economy, with China's move to devalue its currency seen as ad admission from Beijing that things are worse than official data might suggest.</p><p>Markets were also plagued by jitters over an impending interest rate hike from the Fed, which many thought <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-outlook-for-fed-rate-hike-changed-last-week-2015-8">could be coming in September.</a> (Though after this week, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-federal-reserve-hiking-rates-in-september-2015-8?r=UK&amp;IR=T">maybe not</a>.)</p><p>Other theories range from the market being overvalued to literally <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-the-stock-market-down-today-2015-8">no cause at all</a>.</p><p>The truth most likely lies somewhere in the middle, a bit of this reason and a bit of that reason which morphed into something bigger and wild.</p><h2>Next bear market or next bull market</h2><p>As the week went on there was a lot of guessing as to what it all meant.</p><p>There were calls that this was the start of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-often-zig-zag-when-bubbles-peak-2015-8">next bear market</a> and it wasn't going to end for awhile.</p><p>Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Capital, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-sees-another-around-of-qe-2015-8">said that the economy was at the end of global debt super cycle</a> and the Fed is likely closer to another round of quantitative easing than many realize.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Bloomberg TV</span></p><p class="caption">Ray Dalio</p></div><p></p></div></div>Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, who is notably bearish, used a chart showing a 99.7% chance we are in a bear market, writing in a note to clients, "<span>The idea that developed economies will decouple from emerging market turmoil is as ridiculous as was the reverse in the first half of 2008. Remember EM and commodities had then de-coupled from the west</span><span>?</span><span>s woes</span><span>?... </span><span>until they too also crashed."</span><span><br /></span></p><p>The week's jumps also led investors to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/baml-flow-show-largest-equity-fund-outflows-since-2007-2015-8">dump stocks</a> at the fastest rates since the Great Recession and fears arose that stocks were going to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/commodity-prices-and-equities-re-correlating-the-danger-2015-8">get dragged into the same abyss</a> that commodity prices have found themselves in.</p><p>There were also optimistic arguments that we merely hit a bump in a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tom-lee-here-are-reasons-to-stay-bullish-2015-8">prolonged bull market</a> while other experts encouraged investors to keep everything in a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-plunges-since-2007-2015-8">longer-term perspective</a>. </p><p>Goldman Sachs was in the optimistic camp.</p><p>"<span>We continue to believe global economic fundamentals are strong, even as markets appear to be repricing risk. Moments such as these can, in our view, demonstrate the merits of well diversified portfolios," the bank <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-asset-management-note-on-sell-off-2015-8">wrote in a note</a> to clients Monday.</span></p><p>Additionally, optimistic economists pointed to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-still-in-good-shape-2015-8">solid underlying data</a> in the US economy and the higher than expected revision for GDP. <span>There were comparisons to previous market falls, </span><span>favorably and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stop-comparing-todays-market-to-1998-2015-8">unfavorably</a>.</span></p><p>Regardless of where the market goes from here, this week saw the market pretty much end back at square one.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/invest-warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-2015-2">How to invest like Warren Buffett</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="s3M3ZhbDpuxZm0OsRtnfcALpwlLIe4o6" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

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