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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran has warned that Hezbollah may hit "broader and deeper targets" in Israeli territory.</li><li>Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN said Hezbollah may not "restrict itself solely to military targets."</li></ul>Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN has said that Hezbollah will likely respond to Israel's assassination of one of its top military commanders with "broader and deeper targets" in Israeli territory."Until now, Hezbollah and the regime have, in an unwritten understanding, practically adhered to certain limits in their military operations, meaning that confining their actions to border areas and shallow zones, targeting primarily military objectives," the mission said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.irna.ir/news/85556585/Hezbollah-will-hit-deeper-targets-in-occupied-Palestine-Iran">statement</a> on Friday night, per Iranian state news.But it seems an Israeli attack Tuesday on Dahieh, a suburb in Lebanon's capital of Beirut, which took out the senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, may have changed this."We anticipate that, in its response, Hezbollah will choose both broader and deeper targets, and will not restrict itself solely to military targets and means," the mission said in its statement.The mission told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-hezbollah-targets-after-israel-beirut-strike/">CBS News</a> that such targets would be within Israeli territory.Iran's Permanent Representative to the UN did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.<div type="image" title="Smoke rises following an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on July 30 in this screen grab from a video obtained by Reuters." height="2142" width="1558" msid="112249114" hostid="261" sizebytes="43278"></div>Fears have been mounting over an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.Israel said it had launched the strike on Beirut in response to an attack that killed 12 youths in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel said Hezbollah was behind the attack.Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/1/hezbollah-chief-says-response-to-israeli-assassination-inevitable">said</a> at the funeral of Fuad Shukr that the war with Israel had "entered a new phase" and that Israel had "crossed red lines," Al Jazeera reported.The militant group was looking at a "real, studied" response to the attack, he added.Daniel Hagari, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, said on Thursday that "while we prefer to resolve hostilities without a wider war, we remain fully prepared for any scenario."Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-israel-will-exact-heavy-price-any-aggression-toward-it-2024-07-31/#:~:text=We%20are%20prepared%20for%20any,said%20in%20a%20televised%20statement.">warned</a> that "Israel will exact a heavy price for any aggression against us from any arena."Hezbollah has been launching strikes against Israel in support of the Palestinian militant group Hamas since the latter's October 7 attacks, which killed around 1,200 people in Israel.Israel has struck back hard against Hezbollah, targeting its commanders and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

Iran warns that Hezbollah will likely hit non-military targets in Israeli territory in response to Israel's strike on Beirut 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel says it carried out "pre-emptive" airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.</li><li>The Israel Defense Forces said Hezbollah had been preparing to launch attacks on Israel.</li></ul>Israel launched what it called "pre-emptive" airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in the early hours of August 25 after it said it had identified plans for an attack on its territory.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/IDF/status/1827527034400047151">Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said</a> it believed the Lebanese militant group had been preparing to fire missiles and rockets toward Israeli territory."In a self-defense act to remove these threats, the IDF is striking terror targets in Lebanon, from which Hezbollah was planning to launch their attacks on Israeli civilians," Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in an update shared on X.The IDF later said that Hezbollah had launched over 150 projectiles from Lebanon toward Israeli territory.It added that 100 Israeli Air Force fighter jets had "struck and eliminated thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels."Hezbollah has said that it carried out the "first phase" of a planned attack on Israel in response to the killing of Fuad Shukr, one of the group's top commanders, according to Lebanese media.The group said it had fired 320 Katyusha rockets and targeted 11 military sites. It added it had completed its operations for the day.Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, responded by declaring a 48-hour state of emergency across the nation.Fears have been building over an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months.Gallant said on Sunday that Israel would seek to avoid "regional escalation" and that Israel would work with the US "to ensure Israel's defense as well as regional stability."

IDF launches airstrikes on Lebanon and Hezbollah says it fired 320 Katyusha rockets at Israel in major escalation

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel conducted a strike in Beirut on Tuesday that targeted a Hezbollah commander.</li><li>The strike was carried out in retaliation for a deadly rocket attack over the weekend, the IDF said.</li></ul>Israel said it conducted a strike in Beirut on Tuesday targeting a Hezbollah commander who it deemed responsible for a deadly rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights over the weekend.The retaliatory strike in the Lebanese capital targeted Fuad Shukr, a senior advisor to Hezbollah's secretary-general Hasan Nasrallah who has a $5 million US government bounty on his head. It was not immediately clear whether he survived the strike.Video and images from the scene <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/clashreport/status/1818329263956750712">revealed extensive damage</a> to at least one multi-story building, debris in the streets, and smoke rising above the city. There are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/30/world/israel-gaza-war-lebanon-hezbollah/c8e7a8af-5cb9-5df1-9f0d-7d2b43b649e1?smid=url-share">reportedly dozens of casualties</a>."The IDF carried out a targeted strike in Beirut, on the commander responsible for the murder of the children in Majdal Shams and the killing of numerous additional Israeli civilians," the Israeli military said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/idfofficial/9254">statement</a>.<div type="image" title="A view shows damage after what security sources said was a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on July 30." height="832" width="1280" msid="112147694" hostid="261" sizebytes="106804"></div>"At the moment, there are no changes in the Home Front Command defensive guidelines. If any changes will be made, an update will be released," it added.Israel and the US blamed Iran-backed Hezbollah <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-golan-heights-soccer-rocket-hezbollah-explained-97d4377713a209cf130b7b0f3476e1c4">for a rocket attack</a> that killed 12 children and teenagers in Majdal Shams, a town located in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday. The Lebanon-based militant group denied involvement.Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged regular cross-border fire since Israel declared war on Hamas following the October 7 massacre, but Saturday's attack in Majdal Shams raised concerns that the situation could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wider-war-hezbollah-could-unleash-unprecedented-missile-barrage-against-israel-2024-7">spiral into an all-out confrontation</a>, with Israeli officials vowing a harsh response."Hezbollah crossed the red line," Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1818337146731737419">said</a> Tuesday.Shukr, the man who was targeted in Tuesday's strike in Beirut, serves on Hezbollah's Jihad Council, which is its highest military body, according to the US State Department's Rewards for Justice program.<div type="image" title="Damaged vehicles are seen after an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on July 30 in this screen grab from a video." height="2135" width="3803" msid="112147693" hostid="261" sizebytes="274762"></div>Shukr also "played a central role" in the October 1983 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-beirut-barracks-bombing-risk-clash-israel-hamas-hezbollah-iran-2023-10">bombing of the US Marine Corps barracks</a> in Beirut, which killed more than 240 American service members, the US said. The State Department has offered a reward of $5 million for credible information on Shukr, who was marked a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" in 2019.It's still unclear what effects Tuesday's strike will have on the routine exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah and whether it will lead to an escalation in hostilities. It marked the second time the IDF has targeted Beirut since October 7.John Kirby, a White House spokesperson, said on Monday that Israel has "every right to respond" to Saturday's attack in Majdal Shams but downplayed concerns about an all-out conflict."Nobody wants a broader war, and I'm confident that we'll be able to avoid such an outcome," he told reporters.

Israel tried to kill a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut who has a $5 million US bounty on his head

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel appeared to carry out two significant assassinations this week in Lebanon and Iran.</li><li>IDF jets killed a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon shortly before a Hamas leader was blown up in Iran.</li></ul>Israel claimed responsibility earlier this week for a deadly strike that killed a top Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, and just hours later, it became the leading suspect in a sophisticated scheme that assassinated Hamas' political chief in Iran.The stunning, back-to-back killings mark two significant intelligence successes for Israel, and demonstrate its ability to secretly track its enemies and strike them with cold precision, Middle East security and counterterrorism experts told Business Insider.But the strategic repercussions of these strikes remain to be seen, as the dual assassinations have also sparked fears of large-scale retaliation from Iran and its proxies, like Hezbollah and Hamas, which could kill more Israelis and plunge the region into even more conflict.<h2 id="0768e516-6c2d-42bc-9422-85c294aae606">A strike in Lebanon</h2>On Tuesday, Israeli fighter jets carried out a strike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7">killing Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>.<div type="image" title="A photo taken on July 30 shows the destroyed top floors of an eight-story building following an Israeli military strike on Beirut's southern suburb." height="2976" width="4464" msid="112230539" hostid="261" sizebytes="1615736"></div>Shukr served on Hezbollah's Jihad Council, its highest military body, and was a senior advisor to the group's secretary-general, Hasan Nasrallah. The US government also held him responsible for the 1983 <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-beirut-barracks-bombing-risk-clash-israel-hamas-hezbollah-iran-2023-10">bombing of the US Marine Corps barracks</a> in Beirut and had placed a $5 million bounty on his head.The Israel Defense Forces blamed Shukr for a deadly rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that took place just days prior and said it killed him in retaliation.Jonathan Lord, formerly a political military analyst at the Pentagon, said the operation to kill Shukr was likely informed by combat intelligence. Israel found where he was at a specific time and took the shot when it had the opportunity."Their ability to track these individuals in fairly real time, find out where they are, where they're going to be, and then to be able to launch a surgical strike against them — it's an impressive capability," said Lord, the director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.<div type="image" title="A man waves a Hezbollah and a Palestinian flag during the funeral procession of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1." height="1446" width="2170" msid="112230538" hostid="261" sizebytes="219728"></div>Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the Beirut strike demonstrated precision targeting that left minimal collateral damage; three other people were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/31/hezbollahsays-top-commander-fuad-shukr-killed-in-israel-strike-on-beirut">reportedly</a> killed, including two children.<h2 id="d38b8905-5ce1-4266-a05b-271148abf25b">'Reputation is everything'</h2>Hours following the Beirut strike, a more seismic incident occurred: Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">was killed in Iran</a> shortly after he attended the swearing-in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.The circumstances surrounding Haniyeh's death were initially unclear, and it was first thought that he died from an airstrike. However, The New York Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">reported</a> on Thursday that he was killed by an explosive device that had been smuggled months ago into the guesthouse where he was staying in Tehran and remotely detonated once it was clear Haniyeh was in the room.Iran and Hamas blamed Israel for Haniyeh's assassination and promised revenge.<div type="image" title="A man waves a Hezbollah and a Palestinian flag during the funeral procession of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1." height="1446" width="2170" msid="112230538" hostid="261" sizebytes="219728"></div>Israel has not publicly acknowledged its involvement, but Israeli officials — including the leader of the country's vaunted Mossad intelligence agency — have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-03-2024-fc2394531bef8238e86879dd98ea435b">vowed to hunt down Hamas leaders</a> responsible for the October 7 massacre wherever they are.The Mossad has a long history of carrying out Israeli assassination operations outside the country. Axios later <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/01/haniyeh-assassination-mossad">reported</a> that it was Mossad agents who planted the explosive device in the Tehran guesthouse, which is run by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and detonated it from Iranian soil."Astonishingly, Israel had the assets and the capability to gain access to what should have been one of the most highly defended and secured targets in Iran," Hoffman said.Adding to the significant announcements this week, Israel on Thursday said it killed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-mohammad-deif-mastermind-hamas-attack-israel-palestine-gaza-2023-10">Mohammed Deif</a>, the commander of Hamas' military wing, in a mid-July strike in Gaza. Hamas did not immediately confirm his death in the strike, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-war-mohammed-deif-9524d7d5c8f7321f4d8c931fde664556">reportedly</a> killed dozens of Palestinians.<div type="image" title="An anti-Israeli billboard hangs at Palestine Square in Tehran on July 31." height="1428" width="2148" msid="112230537" hostid="261" sizebytes="482676"></div>Yoav Gallant, Israel's defense minister, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1818930330230812684">said</a> Thursday that "the operation was conducted precisely and professionally" by the IDF and Israeli security forces.Lord, the former Pentagon analyst, said tactical intelligence is "definitely a strong suit of the Israelis," but he stressed that this must be weighed against some of the apparent breakdowns that the country's elite intelligence community faced leading up to the October 7 attacks.Israel's political, intelligence, and security apparatuses came under immense scrutiny following the deadly massacre as the public tried to make sense of how the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-israel-military-failed-stop-hamas-attacks-country-troubles-deeper-2023-10">worst breach of the country's defenses</a> since the 1973 Yom Kippur War could occur.Top officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-elite-intelligence-unit-saw-signs-hamas-prepared-attack-report-2023-11">missed and ignored several warnings</a> that Hamas was preparing a major attack, believing such an event couldn't happen and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-probe-said-to-find-pre-oct-7-intel-shouldve-been-enough-to-thwart-hamas-attack/">failed to respond</a> to signs of an imminent attack. In April, Israel's military intelligence chief <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68873227.amp">resigned</a> and said his directorate "did not live up to the task we were entrusted with."Hoffman said Israel's recent string of targeted killings is its attempt to reestablish the dominant reputation of its intelligence community and restore its deterrent capability so it can make good on future threats and appear stronger in the face of regional adversaries like Iran."Israel understands that reputation is everything in the Middle East," Hoffman said. "So gaining that back with this particular series of assassinations was absolutely pivotal."

Israel scored major intelligence wins in daring assassinations of Iranian proxy leaders 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Video footage shows Israel's Iron Dome air-defense system intercepting a number of rockets overnight.</li><li>The rockets were fired by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.</li></ul>Video footage shows Israel's Iron Dome air-defense system intercepting a number of rockets fired by Hezbollah overnight.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iron-dome-partly-overwhelmed-if-hezbollah-war-us-official-2024-6">The Lebanese group has been exchanging strikes with Israel</a> since October in a show of support for the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has been locked in conflict with Israel since its October 7 attacks on the country.The Israel Defense Forces said its air defenses intercepted most of the roughly 30 rockets they detected in the upper Galilee region in northern Israel overnight. Fears have been rapidly increasing over the potential for the conflict to spill over into a full-blown war.The past week saw tensions spike after an Israeli strike on Beirut on Tuesday killed the senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.Following the attack, Iran's Permanent Mission to the UN warned that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-warns-hezbollah-may-attack-non-military-targets-in-israel-2024-8">Hezbollah's response would involve hitting "broader and deeper targets"</a> in Israeli territory and that the group would likely "not restrict itself solely to military targets and means."Unnamed US officials previously <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/politics/us-concerns-israel-iron-dome-hezbollah/index.html">told CNN</a> that an all-out war could see Hezbollah overwhelm at least some of Israel's Iron Dome batteries.<h2 id="6a00001a-a75c-476c-819b-e17e4fce3654">The Iron Dome</h2>The Iron Dome is a mobile missile defense system that is designed to stop rockets and drones launched from Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Defense Project.The system, which has been operational since 2011, has three main parts — the Tamir interceptor missile and its launcher, the ELM 2084 Multimission Radar, and a battle management and weapon control system, the CSIS says.Earlier this year, the system helped intercept a large-scale drone attack launched by Iran.Between 2011 and 2021, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/see-israel-defense-systems-weapons-in-action-2024-4">US contributed at least $1.6 billion</a> to the defense system.

Video shows Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system intercepting Hezbollah rockets overnight as fears over wider conflict mount

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ismail Haniyeh, one of the top members of Hamas, was killed on Wednesday.</li><li>Iranian officials accused Israel of conducting the attack. Israel has not commented.</li></ul>Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, was killed on Wednesday.Details are still emerging about exactly how he died. But one thing is clear — he was supposed to be safe.Haniyeh was visiting an ally, Iran. He was in the capital for the swearing-in of its new president, a high-profile public occasion.In the hours before he died he had audiences with the president and Iran's supreme leader.That proximity to power did not keep him alive — to the outrage of his Iranian hosts.<div type="image" title="Ismail Haniyeh (left) meeting with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran" height="3336" width="4416" msid="112174920" hostid="261" sizebytes="488796"></div><h2 id="c552214f-4fb9-41af-91f0-440f0bf9129a">'Humiliating' blow</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Tasnim News</a>, an outlet with links to the authorities in Iran, said a guided projectile struck his dwelling in northern Tehran at around 2 a.m.Nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack, but Hamas and Iran blamed Israel. Israel didn't comment, but has carried out similar attacks before.According to Middle East and military experts, Haniyeh's death is a "humiliating" blow to Iran.Andrew Fox, a research <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://henryjacksonsociety.org/2024/07/10/major-ret-andrew-fox-joins-the-henry-jackson-society-as-new-research-fellow/">fellow</a> at the Henry Jackson Society, said the killing "sends a very clear message to Iran about Israel's ability to strike inside their borders."Fox said Haniyeh was of limited tactical significance as a target and could be easily replaced — but his loss still took a symbolic toll.<h2 id="a15ab7a0-d415-4e16-8c96-501278983e57">A history of attacks</h2>It wouldn't be the first time Israel has conducted military operations deep inside Iran.Israeli operatives gunned down Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, a high-ranking Egyptian member of Al-Qaeda, on the streets of Tehran in August 2020, four officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/13/world/middleeast/al-masri-abdullah-qaeda-dead.html#:~:text=Abdullah%20Ahmed%20Abdullah%2C%20who%20went,Laden's%20son%20Hamza%20bin%20Laden.">told The New York Times</a> at the time.In November 2020, a Mossad team killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian nuclear physicist said to be the leader of Iran's nuclear program.Ameneh Mehvar, a Middle East Regional Specialist with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), said the latest attack reflected poorly on Iran.She called the killing "humiliating" and "damaging" to its image in the region.It "shows how deep Israel has likely infiltrated Iranian intelligence circles," she said.Farzan Sabet, a senior research associate at the Global Governance Centre and the Sanctions and Sustainable Peace Hub at the Geneva Graduate Institute, went further.He told BI that an "embarrassing security failure" like this would damage Iran's credibility among its allies and perhaps push it into a counterattack to save face."Tehran will likely feel pressure to retaliate in some form despite wanting to remain untouched by the Israel-Hamas war," he said.<h2 id="76feb6af-8a0f-44d5-92b7-d3f8d8a1cd6d">A new phase of brinkmanship</h2>Tensions between Israel and Iran were high even before Haniyeh's killing.Iran and Israel have for decades fought a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-israel-dragged-shadow-war-from-darkness-now-more-dangerous-2024-4">shadow war</a> of espionage and assassination.<div type="image" title="Palestinians carried a placard bearing the image of the leader of the militant Hamas group during a protest in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron" height="1333" width="2000" msid="112174914" hostid="261" sizebytes="251552"></div>Since Hamas launched terror attacks on Israel on October 7, groups allied with Iran — the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah — have targeted Israel, with attacks sometimes spilling over into neighboring countries and directly involving Iran.An exchange of attacks in April on an Iranian embassy in Syria and then a return attack on Israeli soil <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-strike-isfahan-sends-strong-message-nuclear-experts-say-2024-4">marked an earlier escalation</a> that stopped short of further conflict.According to Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, the attack on Haniyeh represents a "new phase of brinkmanship" in the region."While it is not the first targeted assassination against a high-level figure within the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' at this juncture of intense tit-for-tat and a high-stakes geopolitical conflict, it will have ripple effects across the region," she told BI.Haniyeh's assassination and the recent killing of Hezbollah commander <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7">Fuad Shukr</a> in Beirut will "galvanize" other Iran-backed armed proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, he said.This, he said, "creates a dangerous conflagration of threats to Israel and Western interests in the region, notably in the Red Sea, where the Houthis will likely escalate their attacks."Mehvar from ACLED, meanwhile, predicted an Iranian counterattack that was "harsher" but "proportionate," likely carried out with allies.Fox, of the Henry Jackson Society, foresaw "some kind of minor" escalation in rocket attacks from Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, followed by a return to the earlier precarious status quo."They will not want to escalate to the point where the West steps in, as they did during the rocket attacks in April, which were also an embarrassing failure," he said.

The killing of a top Hamas leader in its backyard is 'humiliating' for Iran, experts say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran may conclude it needs to strike Israel with a larger salvo than it did in April.</li><li>Iran and its allies are seeking retaliation after two killings as the risk of a regional war grows.</li></ul>Iran has repeatedly vowed it will attack Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas' political leader in Tehran on July 31. Its main proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, has also vowed to join Iran to avenge Israel's killing of one of its most senior commanders, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut the day before.If Iran and its allies want to show Israel the killings have a cost, they will likely try to catch Israel's defenses off guard or to overwhelm them — suggesting an even larger and more dangerous confrontation than their April barrage.The killing of Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/killing-of-hamas-leader-humiliating-for-iran-experts-2024-7">a humiliation</a> for Iran and Israelis wait anxiously to see what form of revenge Iran may take. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Sunday that an attack could come within 24-48 hours. However, in a Monday briefing, Biden's national security team said it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/06/iran-attack-israel-biden-briefed-details">remains unclear</a> when exactly Iran and Hezbollah will attack.Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time in April, two weeks after Israel assassinated Iranian paramilitary commanders at an Iranian consulate annex in Damascus, Syria. That <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-intel-from-failed-revenge-missile-strike-on-israel-isw-2024-4">attack</a> consisted of over 300 drones and missiles. It was telegraphed days earlier and the overwhelming majority of the projectiles were tracked and intercepted by Israel with the help of the US, Britain, France and Jordan. Israel responded on April 19 with a single pinprick strike against the radar of an Iranian air defense system near Iran's Natanz enrichment facility."My sources suggest that the Iranian regime intends the attack to cause more surprise this time," Arash Azizi, senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University and author of "The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran's Global Ambitions" told Business Insider. "There are many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/08/iran-israel-war-hamas/679374/">internal debates</a> about this with some pushing against the idea of an attack or trying to keep it limited.""Iran is indicating that it wants to bring about a larger attack this time around," Azizi said. "It appears that this is definitely what some are pushing for, but they might still be outvoted in the National Security Council or pressured otherwise.""It's not clear how much damage Iran wants to bring with the attack and how much damage it can bring," Azizi added."This is part of what's being deliberated upon in Tehran right now."The Iran analyst also noted the upcoming Shiite pilgrimage of Arbaeen may influence Iran's timeline. Beginning on August 25 this year, the ritual sees millions of Shiite Iranian pilgrims traveling to Iraq's shrine city of Karbala, many of them on foot."I think it will have to be on a larger scale than the April attack because the Israeli strike was more significant," James Devine, associate professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Mount Allison University, told BI."If Iran wants to maintain deterrence, it has to scale up its responses to Israel's attacks," Devine said. "If the response stays the same, or is smaller, there is no reason for Israel not to escalate its attacks on Iranian targets and territory in the future."<div type="image" title="Israeli defenses like the Iron Dome were supported by US-fired interceptors during an Iranian barrage in April." height="1268" width="2000" msid="112328168" hostid="261" sizebytes="201634"></div><h2 id="212ec812-bc84-4913-aa65-697fd71adccd">Aiming for more damage</h2>Another risk is that the attack could be multi-directional. In addition to Hezbollah, Iran's other regional proxies, such as the Houthis in Yemen and the militias in Iraq and Syria are expected to join Tehran's attack. They supported Iran's April attack, albeit with limited strikes. The Houthis struck Tel Aviv for the first time <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-houthi-attack-tel-aviv-forces-israel-rethink-drone-defenses-2024-7">using a drone on July 19</a>. Israel responded by bombing Yemen's Hodeidah port the following day."Hezbollah will likely play a more active role by firing several — but not many — guided ballistic missiles at Israeli targets in northern Israel, probably including some ballistic missile defense sites," Farzin Nadimi, a defense and security analyst and senior fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told BI. "The Houthis will probably continue to play a supporting role."Devine also believes the Houthis may participate in an attack alongside Iraqi militias but noted that Tehran has "remained clear that it does not want the situation to escalate into a regional war" and remains focused on deterrence."Nevertheless, they will likely want to structure the attack so it does more damage," Devine said. "Therefore, it may not be as telegraphed as the first. It may include parallel attacks from multiple directions and some closer launch points."Tehran may also restrict its attacks to military targets rather than civilian areas to reduce the risk the tit-for-tat strikes trigger an all-out war."It is also possible that an Israeli embassy somewhere will be targeted," Devine said. "Tehran has said the strike must be against Israeli territory, but embassies as we saw with the April crisis, are considered to be national territory by the Iranians. But this is just a guess on my part."Devine and Azizi are skeptical that Hezbollah, despite having its red line crossed in Beirut, would risk attacking Tel Aviv and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wider-war-hezbollah-could-unleash-unprecedented-missile-barrage-against-israel-2024-7"> trigger a major retaliation</a> that would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wider-war-hezbollah-could-unleash-unprecedented-missile-barrage-against-israel-2024-7">threaten Hezbollah's arsenal</a>, which consists of up to 150,000 surface-to-surface rockets and missiles."A Hezbollah strike in Tel Aviv killing significant numbers of civilians would quite possibly precipitate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-has-the-firepower-to-ambush-israeli-tanks-in-lebanon-2024-7">a full-out war on the Israeli-Lebanese border</a> — the sort of situation Iran has said it wants to avoid," Devine said.<div type="image" title="Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in an attack that the group has vowed to avenge." height="1333" width="2000" msid="112328170" hostid="261" sizebytes="215846"></div><h2 id="ab0ded4d-27b9-4f01-8690-c244923e2f77">What happens next</h2>The scale of the Iranian attacks is drawing in the US military <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-deploys-more-warships-able-destroy-ballistic-missiles-counter-iran-2024-8">to play defense</a>, and it's increasingly possible that some Iran-backed militants could target US forces in the region during a large attack. On Monday, a rocket attack carried out by Iran-backed militias on Iraq's Ain al Asad Airbase <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/world/middleeast/iraq-us-troops-iran-attack.html">injured at least five American troops</a>."The fact that the regime has openly declared US complicity in the assassination of Haniyeh means that they're likely considering attacking US forces as well," Azizi said.How Israel would retaliate for any Iranian attack would likely depend on certain factors."If the coming Iranian attack causes Israeli casualties, they are likely to want to respond harshly," Azizi said. "But they might be restrained by the US and other sides whose priority is avoiding an all-out regional war."On the other hand, Israel may not necessarily wait until Iran strikes."It is also possible for Israel to conduct preemptive strikes on Iran before Iran gets to attack," Azizi said. "If Israel wanted to truly up the ante, it could strike Iranian refineries, which would cause a major crisis in Iran.""There is a chance that the IDF has already thought about these plans, especially since the new phase of hostilities began in April."Devine believes Israel's response will depend on the "amount of damage and casualties" any Iranian attack ultimately causes."Iran did very little damage the first time, so it is a very low bar to clear," Devine said. "If Iran is more aggressive than expected, or there is an accident, and there are significant civilian casualties, or Israel's defenses come off looking inadequate, Israel's response could be severe."An unprecedented Iranian attack could lead to an unprecedented Israeli response."Israel will likely try to retaliate more strongly than April 19, especially if they suffer casualties or a significant building is destroyed by Iran," The Washington Institute's Nadimi said."In that case, some of Iran's nuclear sites will likely be targeted as well."

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