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Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

<keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> are currently making a beeline for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword>, enthused by the gush of <keyword id="23496485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stimulus" source="keywords">financial stimulus</keyword> injected by the government into the Chinese economy. While this may have temporarily sent their stock markets soaring, a recent report by the <keyword id="19899824" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Bank">World Bank</keyword> notes that this might not be enough to push back the <keyword id="19904090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-slowdown" source="keywords">economic slowdown</keyword> that has already set in. China's growth rate is projected to slack further to 4.3% in 2025, down from its present rate of 4.8%. The <keyword id="19916574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OECD" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="OECD" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="OECD">OECD</keyword> also expects the country's growth to slow down to 4.5% in 2025 Experts believe that the recent economic push by the government, which includes lowering reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 6.6%, lowering mortgage rates, injecting $142 billion into banks, among others, are too little to sustain long-term recovery. Notably, lowering RRR frees up $140 billion for banks to lend, while reducing mortgages and minimum down payments for housing purchases are directed to spur up the Chinese real estate segment. Per <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Goldman Sachs" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Goldman Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword>, weak domestic demand, dwindling consumer confidence and spending and an endless real-estate crisis are some of the main reasons for the slowdown.The average Chinese citizen still grapples with job insecurity, stagnant salaries, and depreciating real estate and equity values. For instance, China's last public holiday of the year, the Golden Week, which ended on October 7 and commemorates the nation's founding, saw 2% less spending per domestic trip, as compared to pre-pandemic levels. "Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlight the still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading in the country,” the analysts at GS noted. <h2>Its all temporary</h2>The <keyword id="21360606" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hang-Seng-index" source="keywords">Hang Seng index</keyword>, which is up by 4.22% today, has been seeing a meteoric rise over the past few weeks. Inching up by a little over 24% over the last month, the Chinese markets have been seeing an significant influx of foreign investment, largely at the expense of other emerging markets like India. Foreign investors had offloaded shares worth Rs 27,142 crore between the first and third of this month, after foreign investments reached a staggering record-high of Rs 93,538 crore in September, as per NSDL data. Over the last 10 days, FIIs have constantly been net sellers, while DIIs have been net buyers. As of October 10th, DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) have put in Rs 50,183 crores in Indian markets, almost balancing out Rs 49,305.29 crore withdrawn by foreign investors. But whether this trend of FII inflow in China continues will largely depend on the fundamentals their economy, an area where India has an edge, thanks to strong confidence of domestic investors. Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance highlights that while the Hang Seng index's recent 26% surge over the last month has caught investors' attention, and while this bullish trend is expected to continue, driven by low Chinese stock valuations and hopes for economic improvement from government stimulus, there lies a long road ahead. "Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out $5.4 billion from Indian equities over five consecutive sessions, ending Monday, October 7. While this suggests a possible rotation of funds from India to China, how long this shift will last will depend on the Chinese government’s ability to resolve the structural economic issues. While the market rally is encouraging, more policy steps are needed to boost economic activity and confidence in China", he added.

All eyes on China: Rush of foreign investors can do little to stave off a slowdown, says World Bank

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

New Delhi: <keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around USD 11.2 billion) from the Indian <keyword id="19925636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-market" source="keywords">stock market</keyword> in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of <keyword id="20295104" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-stocks" source="keywords">Chinese stocks</keyword>. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024. Since June, FPIs have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May. Overall, FPIs have been net buyers in 2024, except for January, April and May, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead, the trajectory of global events like geopolitical developments, interest rate movements, progress in the Chinese economy and the outcome of the US Presidential election will play a crucial role in shaping future foreign investment in <keyword id="20014814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-equities" source="keywords">Indian equities</keyword>, Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India, said. On the domestic front, key indicators like inflation trajectory, corporate earnings, and the impact of festive season demand will also be closely watched by FPIs as they assess opportunities in the Indian market, he added. According to the data, FPIs recorded a net outflow of Rs 94,017 crore in October. The intensity of net outflows could be gauged from the fact that except for one day, FPIs were net sellers throughout the month, bringing their total investment for 2024 down to Rs 6,593 crore. This relentless selling resulted in about an 8 per cent decline in benchmark indices from their peaks. Several factors contributed towards this massive withdrawal of foreign capital from the Indian equity markets in October. The major among them is the elevated valuations of Indian equities. This has triggered a shift in investments towards China, where valuations are currently more attractive. Additionally, a series of stimulus measures, aimed at bolstering Chinese economic growth has made Chinese equities increasingly appealing to global investors, Srivastava said. Despite the massive FPI selling in financials, this sector is resilient since the valuations are fair and every selling is being absorbed by DIIs and individual investors, particularly HNIs, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said. In addition, FPIs pulled out Rs 4,406 crore from the debt general limit and invested Rs 100 crore from the debt Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market.

FPIs withdraw record Rs 94,000 cr from Indian equities in Oct on attractive Chinese valuations

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The high demand for advanced semiconductors is increasing tensions between the US and China.</li><li>Production power is key to the conflict, but tensions have shifted to the supply of raw materials.</li></ul>In the race against the US for global tech supremacy, China has the upper hand in at least one critical area: rare earths.The term refers to a group of 17 elements required to make tech products ranging from semiconductors to industrial magnets and some solar panels — the same items embroiled in the US-China trade war.For more than a year, Beijing has slowly been tightening its grip on critical minerals and rare earths.In December, <a target="_blank" href="https://m.mofcom.gov.cn/article/zwgk/gkzcfb/202312/20231203462079.shtml">China banned</a> the export of a range of rare earth processing technologies. Last month, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/202406/content_6960152.htm">China</a> further tightened its grip on the sector. Citing resource protection and national security, Beijing made it mandatory for exporters to track how rare earth minerals are used in supply chains.Now, there are fears that China could tighten the global rare earths supply chain even more.Here's what you need to know about rare earths, what makes them so valuable, and how they play into the tech war between the US and China.<h2 id="3f9ba9c5-7a71-4e19-80b7-4398490d1924">China's rare earth dominance</h2>China has long dominated the rare earths market due to supply, low labor costs, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-rare-earths-dominance-focus-after-mineral-export-curbs-2023-07-05/">lax environmental standards.</a>The country produces<a target="_blank" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2023/clean-energy-supply-chains-vulnerabilities"> 60% of the world's rare earth mineral supply</a> and accounts for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary">90% of global refined output.</a>The late Deng Xiaoping — the Chinese leader who spearheaded the country's economic reforms in 1978 —<a target="_blank" href="https://nm.cnr.cn/nmzt/60dq/tjnmg/200704/t20070412_504442760.html"> recognized their strategic importance</a> in 1992, saying, "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths."Under the new regulations introduced last month, China's rare earth resources now belong to the state. Two Canadian-owned rare earth refineries in China are also being acquired by state-owned companies.This is not the first time Beijing has placed restrictions on rare earths. In 2010, China imposed strict rare earth quotas, citing environmental concerns and resource preservation. The move sent prices up sharply and prompted the US, the European Union, and Japan to file a complaint against China for unfair trade practices at the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds431_e.htm">World Trade Organization</a>. China lost the case and lifted exported quotas in 2015.Various countries tried to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.circularise.com/blogs/the-rare-earth-problem-sustainable-sourcing-and-supply-chain-challenges">diversify</a> their rare earth supply chains in the wake of China's quotas in the 2010s, but success has been limited due to the high cost of investment and environmental concerns.There are renewed efforts to boost global production in the face of rising tensions.In 2022, the US <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/20/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-takes-further-action-to-strengthen-and-secure-critical-mineral-supply-chains/">Department of Defense</a> awarded $45 million to MP Materials for rare earth oxide processing, and in 2023, it awarded over $288 million to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessdefense.gov/news/2023/DoD-Awards-Key-Contract-for-Domestic-Heavy-Rare-Earth-Separation-Capability.html">Lynas USA</a> to set up commercial-scale rare earth oxide production facilities.<h2 id="c8073b51-666c-4b37-8da2-99bb4249c25d">How is China leveraging rare earths?</h2>Beijing's moves to control critical minerals and rare earths are part of a toolbox Beijing has developed over the last four years, Rick Waters, the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice, said at a press briefing.During President Donald Trump's first term, the US and China slapped retaliatory tariffs on each other. However, China has less leverage in a tariff fight because it exports more to the US than it imports, so it came up with another regulatory framework — this one involving rare earths — that it can use in a trade dispute."They're experimenting with its use, and I think, in a way, they could go further — if they perceive they need to," said Waters.Any further tightening of rare earth supplies — which are a subset under critical minerals — could leave the US vulnerable to supply shocks."China has cornered the market for processing and refining of key critical minerals, leaving the US and our allies and partners vulnerable to supply chain shocks and undermining economic and national security," the White House said in a<a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/20/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-takes-further-action-to-strengthen-and-secure-critical-mineral-supply-chains/"> statement</a> in September.<h2 id="a846860e-2bcb-4815-adc9-5f8fef9eaa09">What do the restrictions on rare earths mean for TSMC and Nvidia?</h2>China's control over rare earths could weigh heavily in the trade war between Washington and Beijing, with chips in the center of the conflict.Chips are found in everything from computers to cell phones, cars, and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-rare-earth-minerals-stockpile-mystery-opacity-worries-experts-2024-6"> defense equipment</a>. Taiwan dominates the market, producing over 60% of the world's chips and over 90% of the most advanced ones.One company — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — is responsible for most of the output and is the key supplier to AI chip giant Nvidia, which is in the thick of the tech rivalry.The US has already moved to block the export of advanced chips and chipmaking equipment to China.If the trade tiff escalates — such as in the form of higher tariffs — China could pull its rare earth card, Oxford Economics wrote in a report published in July."China's dominance in the battery supply chain accords policymakers with leverage to withhold industry-specific inputs from Western manufacturers, which could prove inflationary and economically disruptive," wrote Louise Loo, the lead economist for Greater China at Oxford Economics.This could involve further controls on critical commodity exports, particularly in rare earth minerals, Loo added.As happened with China's rare earth export curbs in 2010, prices are likely to spike if supply is tightened, so any prolonged supply crunch could drive up inflation for end products.<h2 id="41f10c92-fd52-4452-af13-c2607b378399">The tech Cold War</h2>The US and China's moves to outmaneuver each other in the tech race have some analysts drawing parallels to the Cold War.Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Business Insider the idea that the US ought to out-compete China and prevent the nation from developing advanced chips plays into a "bigger power competition narrative."She said the tensions are similar, though not identical, to the tensions between the US and Soviet Union that began after the end of World War II.As<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/us-weighs-capping-exports-of-ai-chips-from-nvidia-and-amd-to-some-countries"> Bloomberg</a> reported last month, the US is considering limiting export licenses for both Nvidia and AMD chips in an unfolding trade war that has also hit several sensitive industries, including<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-joe-biden-hikes-tariffs-on-chinese-made-evs-2024-5"> electric vehicles, batteries, and some solar panels.</a>The US imposed similar trade limits, embargoes, and economic sanctions on the Soviet Union, North Korea, China, and North Vietnam during the Cold War."I think the heart of the issue is concern about how China will use AI chips for military applications and surveillance," Chris Tang, a UCLA professor and expert in global supply chain management and the impact of regulatory policies, told BI. "It's a different type of Cold War."Beyond a tense relationship, the dynamics between the US and China are also creating parallel systems, with the US and its allies on one side, and China and its allies on the other, Nick Vyas, the founding director of USC Marshall's Randall R. Kendrick Global Supply Chain Institute, told BI.Vyas said he's concerned the tension could escalate from this new Cold War to a hot one between global powers."When we stop transacting horizontally with each other, that's only creating a larger conflict," Vyas said. "And then with a<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/seal-team-6-fight-with-china-over-taiwan-2024-10"> South China Sea conflict</a>, the geopolitical conflict could turn into a larger conflict, which can lead to a major situation that leads up to a war."Representatives for Nvidia declined to comment for this story. Representatives for AMD and the Bureau of Industry and Security didn't respond to requests for comment from BI.

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FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

BI India Bureau

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

All eyes on China: Rush of foreign investors can do little to stave off a slowdown, says World Bank

Ira Alok Puranik

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

BI India Bureau

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Ira Alok Puranik

FPIs withdraw record Rs 94,000 cr from Indian equities in Oct on attractive Chinese valuations

PTI

The US-China tech race is moving from chips to the raw materials they're made of

Huileng Tan,Katherine Tangala…

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