<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/54bbd3c4ecad04801fe364cb-688-516/felix-zulauf-3.jpg" border="0" alt="felix zulauf"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSfJR6yR7p0">Gold Money Foundation / YouTube</a>Felix Zulauf</img></div></div></div>Barron's <a href="http://online.barrons.com/articles/barrons-roundtable-part-1-masters-of-the-game-1421478968?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_1">published highlights</a> from its annual roundtable discussion this weekend, and among the participants this year was Swiss hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf. 
Overall, Zulauf has a downbeat view of the economy for 2015, and expects there will be tons of volatility in markets this year. 
But because volatility will reign supreme this year, Zulauf said of the investing landscape, "It will be a trader's dream, but an investor's hell."
Zulauf said that the biggest thing going for the US stock market right now is that bond returns stink. On <a href="http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield">Friday</a>, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.83% while the 30-year was near a record low at 2.44%.
Zulauf, however, expects that the economy will struggle in 2015 despite forecasts to the contrary, and this is likely to pressure stocks. Moreover, it's been a while since there has been a correction in the stock market and we could be overdue for a pullback.
Zulauf:
"The major U.S. stock indexes haven't declined by 10% for the past 3.5 years. Extreme readings of investor sentiment reflect a lot of complacency, which usually makes a market vulnerable. A lot of multinational growth stocks are extended on the upside, and cyclicals are extended on the downside. Usually, this situation ends in a big correction. I expect a decline of 15% or so moving into the spring. It could be worldwide, and probably triggered by earnings disappointments in the U.S., due to the strong dollar. I assume central-bank monetary policy will get even easier in the face of this decline."
The roundtable also talked about the decline in oil prices, and Zulauf came down on the side of the slide in oil being a negative for the market and the economy.
"The oil-price slump will hurt the economy dramatically in terms of capital spending and employment, and a lot of oilfield jobs are high-paying jobs," Zulauf said. "Yes, lower oil prices will bring down the cost of energy, which is good for consumers, but the private sector is going to save this money, instead of spending it."
The Barron's roundtable, which this year also included folks like Goldman's Abby Joseph Cohen, Janus' Bill Gross, and "Dr. Doom" Marc Faber, is a must-read for anyone who wants to get an extended read on what some of the sharpest folks on Wall Street are thinking about heading into this year.
<a href="http://online.barrons.com/articles/barrons-roundtable-part-1-masters-of-the-game-1421478968?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_1">Read the full report from Barron's here »</a>

FELIX ZULAUF: 2015 Will Be 'A Trader's Dream, But An Investor's Hell'

<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"><img src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5037e20c6bb3f7020d00000b-400-300/zulauf2.jpg" border="0" alt="felix zulauf" /></div><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSfJR6yR7p0">GoldMoney Foundation via YouTube</a></td></tr></table>Swiss hedge fund manager <keyword id="1768409" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Felix-Zulauf">Felix Zulauf</keyword> participated in <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Barron's annual Roundtable</a>, and he came with a couple of trades.
Three of those trades involved <keyword id="6355311" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Japan">Japan</keyword>.
"The moment has arrived where the Bank of Japan needs to bridge the gap and buy more JGBs with newly printed yen," he said. "In other words, the supply of yen will increase dramatically. Japanese inflation will be pushed from slightly below zero to 2%, and the yen will be weakened. This is a major change for Japan, because the yen has been one of the world's strongest currencies for a long time, right behind the Swiss franc."
Here are his trades:
<ul>
<li>U.S. dollar vs. Japanese yen</li>
<li>USD/JPY Call Option Strike 95 Exp. 12/31/2014</li>
<li>WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ)</li>
<li>iSharesMSCIBrazil Index Fund (EWZ)</li>
<li>iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI)</li>
<li>iShares MSCI Emerg Mkts Index Fund (EEM)</li>
<li>Gold</li>
</ul>
"The last time I discussed Japanese stocks was at the 1990 Roundtable, when Paul Tudor Jones and I recommended selling the Nikkei at 40,000," he said. "We said it would be cut in half. The Nikkei hit a low of 7,000 in 2009 and since then has traded in a range of 7,000 to 11,000."
Maybe he'll be right again.
For Zulauf's commentary on each of his trades, read the transcript at <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Barrons.com</a>.
SEE ALSO: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/japans-eighties-america-buying-spree-2013-1">The True Story Of The 1980s, When Everyone Was Convinced Japan Would Buy America &gt;</a>

Felix Zulauf Recommended 7 Trades At Barron's Roundtable

<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5037e21aecad04844c000017-400-300/zulauf.jpg" border="0" alt="felix zulauf" /></div><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSfJR6yR7p0">GoldMoney Foundation via YouTube</a></td></tr></table>One of the most striking aspects of the current bull run in the U.S. stock market is the lack of a correction (e.g. 5 percent sell-off) in months.
As stocks close in on new all-time highs, even the most bullish stock market bulls are worried about this.
Swiss hedge fund manager <keyword id="1768409" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Felix-Zulauf">Felix Zulauf</keyword> is particularly concerned, and he warns if we don't get some sort of sell-off soon, we could see a crash.
He spoke with <a href="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/14_Felix_Zulauf__World_Headed_Toward_1987_Style_Market_Collapse.html">King World News' Eric King</a>:
...It’s a top building process that we are in. If the markets do not correct as I expect some time in spring, if the markets would continue to go up, and not be confirmed by internal technicals, then it gets very, very dangerous. 
Then we would resemble much more a market situation that has some similarities to 1987 ... I’m just saying we are in dangerous territory, and people should be aware of that and take precautionary steps.”
Zulauf also talks about interest rates and gold.
Read more at <a href="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/14_Felix_Zulauf__World_Headed_Toward_1987_Style_Market_Collapse.html">KingWorldNews.com</a>.

FELIX ZULAUF: If The Stock Market Doesn't Correct Soon, Then We Could Repeat 1987

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:350px"><div class="image"><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/511d541069bedd1a27000009-766-575/stretch-dog-sleeping.jpg?maxX=350" border="0" alt="stretch dog sleeping" width="350" /></div><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/64382384@N05/5864966742/">snoboard1010 / Flickr</a></div>Stocks didn't move much. But they didn't sell off either. Is that a bad thing?
First the scoreboard:
Dow: 13,973, -9.5, -0.0 percent S&amp;P 500: 1,521, +1.0, +0.0 percent NASDAQ: 3,198, +1.7, +0.0 percent
And now the top stories:
<ul>
<li>The conditions for a sell-off were certainly in place. Before U.S. markets opened, we got GDP reports from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/miss-japanese-gdp-falls-01-2013-2">Japan</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-gdp-falls-06-2013-2">Europe</a>. Both showed declining growth. And both reports were worse than expected. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-eurozones-youth-unemployment-crisis-2013-2">Here Are 18 Scary Charts That Show The Real Crisis In Europe &gt;</a></li>
<li>The economic data out of the U.S. was a bit more encouraging. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/february-14-initial-jobless-claims-2013-2">Initial weekly jobless claims fell to 341k</a>, which was way below the 365k economists were looking for.</li>
<li>In M&amp;A news, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital announced that it would <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-story-of-heinz-ketchup-2013-2">acquire ketchup conglomerate HJ Heinz Company</a>. The group offered a steep 20 percent premium to shareholders.</li>
<li>So what are we to make of this bull market, which sits near 5-year highs? <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/citis-february-panic-euphoria-model-2013-2">Citi's Tobias Levkovich</a> warns that sentiment may be reaching dangerously high levels. "The Panic/Euphoria Model has spiked to near its highs over the past three years, suggesting frothy levels have ensued," writes Citi's Tobias Levkovich. "While a variety of other factors are constructive for equity indices, this proprietary gauge is starting to get perilously close to euphoria, cutting above the complacency readings seen in April/May 2012. In the past, when the model reached such levels, the equity markets experienced some modest consolidation."</li>
<li>Veteran hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf is also worried. He's particularly concerned about the lack of sell-offs in this bull run. "If the markets do not correct as I expect some time in spring, if the markets would continue to go up, and not be confirmed by internal technicals, then it gets very, very dangerous," said <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/felix-zulauf-warns-of-1987-type-sell-off-2013-2">Zulauf in an interview</a> with King World News. "Then we would resemble much more a market situation that has some similarities to 1987 ... I’m just saying we are in dangerous territory, and people should be aware of that and take precautionary steps."</li>
<li>Don't Miss: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2">The Secret Trading Strategy From The 1930s That Hedge Funders Don't Want You To Know About &gt;</a></li>
</ul>
<table style="width: 640px; background-color: #ebf1f6;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr valign="top">
<td colspan="3" width="620"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6545269beddbb78000036/spacer.gif" border="0" width="1" height="15" /></td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top">
<td rowspan="5" width="15"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6545269beddbb78000036/spacer.gif" border="0" width="15" height="1" /></td>
<td width="590"><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/4fff1aa6eab8eaed4f000003/.gif" border="0" alt="BI Intelligence" /></td>
<td rowspan="5" width="15"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6545269beddbb78000036/spacer.gif" border="0" width="15" height="1" /></td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top">
<td width="590"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6545269beddbb78000036/spacer.gif" border="0" width="1" height="5" /></td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top">
<td style="color: #000000; text-decoration: none; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif;" width="590">
BI Intelligence, a new subscription research service from Business Insider, provides in-depth insight, data, and analysis of the mobile industry.
Access all reports, research updates, presentations, data and chart libraries plus much more with your free trial.
</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top">
<td width="590"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6545269beddbb78000036/spacer.gif" border="0" width="1" height="10" /></td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top">
<td style="color: #000000; text-decoration: none; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif;" width="590"><a href="https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/welcome?utm_source=House&amp;utm_medium=Edit&amp;utm_term=EmailPromo&amp;utm_content=bottomlink&amp;utm_campaign=BIIMobile" target="_blank">Click here to start your subscription&gt;&gt; </a></td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top">
<td colspan="3" width="620"><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4ee6545269beddbb78000036/spacer.gif" border="0" width="1" height="15" /></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

STOCKS GO NOWHERE: Here's What You Need To Know

<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/50faa1f469beddcc46000008-407/abby-joseph-cohen-1.jpg" border="0" alt="abby joseph cohen" /></div><a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1206767531">CNBC</a></td></tr></table><keyword id="166540" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Barrons">Barron's</keyword> recently held its annual <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Roundtable</a> with some of the luminaries of finance. 
Participants included Scott Black of Delphi Management; Fred Hickey of The High-Tech Strategist; Abby <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/joseph-cohen" class="hidden_link">Joseph Cohen</a> of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/goldman-sachs" class="hidden_link">Goldman Sachs</a>, Brian Rogers of T. Rowe Price, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital Partners, Mario Gabelli of GAMCO Investors, Oscar Schafer of O.S.S. Capital Management, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/bill-gross" class="hidden_link">Bill Gross</a> of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/pimco" class="hidden_link">PIMCO</a>, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/felix-zulauf" class="hidden_link">Felix Zulauf </a>of Zulauf Asset Management.
And the battle between the bulls and the bears has never been more heated.
Here's an exchange between Goldman Sachs' <keyword id="44404" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Abby-Joseph-Cohen">Abby Joseph Cohen</keyword> and PIMCO's <keyword id="174544" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bill-Gross">Bill Gross</keyword> over profit growth expectations. From <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Barron's</a>:
What is your S&amp;P 500 earnings estimate for 2013?
Cohen: Consensus estimates for earnings growth are on the order of 12% to 13% this year and next. Corporate performance has diverged from the economy's performance for many years, and that could continue. Companies in the S&amp;P 500 are increasing their exposure to other parts of the world, not just for production purposes, but more important, in terms of end demand. ... Gross: Time out, people. Let's try to analyze why earnings have done so well in recent years. Corporate profits have come at the expense of labor. Wages as a percentage of GDP have declined to 54% from 59% in the past 10 years. That trend would have to continue for earnings to keep going up. Also, 30% to 35% of earnings growth in the past five years has come from lower interest expense. Most of you probably would agree that is coming to an end, as well. Corporations have to sell their products to somebody. They can't benefit when that somebody has depressed wages and high leverage. At some point the game begins to change. A forecast of 12%-to-13% earnings growth under such circumstances is not only extreme but almost farcical.
Cohen: I gave you bottom-up estimates [industry analysts' estimates]. Our top-down number [market strategists' estimates] is lower, but still in the mid- to high single digits. That is much better than many people, Goldman Sachs included, felt 12 months ago.
Indeed, that data shows that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-streets-analysts-vs-strategists-2013-1">stock pickers (i.e. bottom-up analysts) tend to be more bullish than strategists (i.e. top-down analysts)</a>.
It's worth noting that Gross, the bond king, wasn't safe from jabs either. Here's Brian Rogers:
Rogers: ...One thing we haven't talked about is the great rotation: money coming out of Bill Gross's portfolio and going into the equity market.
Gross: Sorry, that hasn't happened.
Rogers: It hasn't happened, yet. It will be a factor in boosting equity returns this year, unless investor sentiment turns very negative, which could be a risk next month as the debt-ceiling fight gets under way. That is going to be a mess, and February probably will be the worst month for stocks. But a combination of decent economic performance, reasonable valuations, and decent dividend activity suggests stocks could do well this year. Dividend growth substantially outpaced earnings growth last year, and there were a number of special dividends toward year end before tax rates were slated to rise...
Barron's Roundtable is always a must read. Read it at <a href="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704843204578245523623098286.html">Barrons.com</a>.

You Searched For "Felix Zulauf" and got 5 results

FELIX ZULAUF: 2015 Will Be 'A Trader's Dream, But An Investor's Hell'

Myles Udland

Felix Zulauf Recommended 7 Trades At Barron's Roundtable

Sam Ro

FELIX ZULAUF: If The Stock Market Doesn't Correct Soon, Then We Could Repeat 1987

Sam Ro

STOCKS GO NOWHERE: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

Bill Gross Told Goldman's Abby Cohen That Her Forecast Was 'Farcical' At Barron's Roundtable

Sam Ro