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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Regulators and politicians worldwide expect Donald Trump's second term to have a major impact on trade.</li><li>During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on key industries in both Europe and China.</li></ul>The world has woken up to the news that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump has won</a> the 2024 election.For politicians and regulators worldwide, that means facing the impact a second Trump presidency will have on trade.During his first term, Trump's "America's First" policies led to trade disputes with China and the European Union, with tariffs imposed on certain goods.China's retaliation triggered a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-us-china-tariffs-lost-no-meaning-2019-11">trade war</a> between the two nations, that saw them impose hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tariffs against each other.This time around, analysts told BI, Trump's policies could have a particular impact on Europe."I think that China has already faced significant tariffs and has adapted, but Europe has yet to face them. So if Trump does implement his global tariffs then Europe would be hit hard," said Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, a macro market research firm.<h2 id="383aa90c-1fc2-4eb8-a58f-aa0d02b29ab9">Trump's proposed tariffs</h2>"To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is 'tariff,'" Trump told an audience at the Economic Club of Chicago in October, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/harris-trump-election-10-16-2024/card/trump-calls-tariffs-the-most-beautiful-word--YMVPAupw4EjBRp6yobOy">The Wall Street Journal</a> reported.During his first term, Trump repeatedly accused the EU of unfair trade policies, saying it is "very, very tough" to get US products into the economic bloc.He imposed tariffs targeting key European industries, like steel, aluminum, and certain luxury goods.During his campaign, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5#taxes-6">pledged</a> to impose a 10% blanket tariff on all imported goods and has floated tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods.Europe is particularly vulnerable to Trump's aggressive trade policies for two main reasons, said Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory firm deVere Group.Firstly, many European companies, especially those in manufacturing, luxury goods, automotive, and tech, are deeply reliant on US markets. Tariffs would raise costs significantly for those companies and lower their market share in the US and their overall valuation, Green said.He said that Europe is already facing a series of economic and political challenges, including high energy costs, sluggish economic growth, and geopolitical instability."A fresh trade war with the US under Trump's presidency could exacerbate these problems, destabilizing the region's economy further," said Green.Analysts also warned that if Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">reduces financial aid to Ukraine</a>, Europe will be forced to allocate more spending to the conflict.At the same time, the continent would also suffer the knock-on impacts of tariffs on China, meaning a flood of cheaper goods being diverted to their market.Pharmaceuticals, automotive, and chemical products are the most exposed sectors to potential tariffs as they represent the lion's share of EU exports to the US, according to Morningstar DBRS.If Trump raises tariffs on foreign goods, he also increases the risk of retaliation from other countries, which in turn could hamper <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-economic-outlook-recession-inflation-china-tariffs-biden-president-election-2024-3">global economic growth</a> and stoke inflation."The real fear among market watchers is that Europe would retaliate just as swiftly as it did during Trump's first presidency," said Green."While European stocks might take an initial hit, the real blind spot lies in US firms with significant exposure to European markets.""Tech companies, consumer goods giants, luxury brands, and automotive firms that generate a large portion of their revenues from Europe could be caught in the crossfire," added Green."Time will tell whether Trump's 'bark' proves worse than his 'bite,' with inauguration day not for another couple of months, but the election results are set to make those months very jittery indeed for European policymakers," said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone.Ahead of the results, European stocks exposed to US tariffs had <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/europe-trump-win-outlook-trade-war-tariff-crypto-djt-election-2024-10">already seen sharp declines</a> and underperformed the wider market.As results came in on Wednesday morning, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11?_gl=1*blal4i*_ga*MTA3MjIyNzY3Mi4xNzAxMjc2NjY5*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDg4ODg1Mi4xMTk4LjEuMTczMDg4OTA1NC40OC4wLjA">European markets</a> trended up, following the lead of US futures, though gains pared as the day progressed.<div type="image" title="US President Donald Trump shakes hands with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen prior to their meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on January 21, 2020." height="3712" width="5568" msid="115021254" hostid="261" sizebytes="980238"></div>On Wednesday morning, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, congratulated Trump in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/1854080384608190708">a post on X</a> and called for Europe and the US to work together, calling them "more than just allies."<h2 id="286c0e3d-a30b-4751-98ea-4c74920b34a1">The rest of the world could suffer</h2>Outside Europe and China, the impacts of Trump's proposed tariffs could also be acutely felt in both Australasia and Latin America.Steven Kennedy, the most senior civil servant in Australia's Treasury department, said Wednesday that he expects Trump's tariffs to impact the country's economy."The significant increase in tariffs would have implications for both the US economy and for China, and there would be flow-on consequences for Australia," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/donald-trumps-china-tariff-plan-would-have-consequences-for-australia-treasury-chief-warns/news-story/783c7340c4c11a679025207df84aa0f2">Kennedy said during a senate hearing, per News.com.au.</a>"In very broad terms, the imposition of trade restrictions, such as tariffs, typically lead to lower growth and higher inflation," he said.In Latin America, rating agency Fitch warned last week that fresh tariffs under a second Trump government would have a major impact on the US' closest neighbor, Mexico.Mexico's economy relies heavily on trade with the US, its biggest economic partner. Tariffs on that trade would likely lower GDP, Fitch said."Aggressive unilateral tariff hikes by the US would lead to a 0.2% to 1.9% reduction of Mexico's GDP relative to our baseline expectations," Fitch said, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://latinvex.com/fitch-warns-of-trump-risk-for-latin-america/">reported by Latinvex</a>.

The world prepares for a fresh era of tariffs under Trump 2.0

India's investment ecosystem is undergoing a seismic shift, with index investing gaining unprecedented traction among investors, according to a report by Motilal Oswal. The younger generation, including Gen Z and Millennials, shows a stronger inclination towards index funds as compared to older investors. They also prefer index funds over ETFs for better returns and liquidity. A recent report by Axis AMC also highlighted the growing appetite for ETFs, which witnessed net sales of Rs 15,403 crore in October 2024. While 46% of younger investors favor index funds, only 35% of Gen X and Boomers do so. Millennials and Gen X investors also have a keen interest in factor or smart beta funds, reflecting their appetite for innovative, albeit aggressive investment strategies. Passive funds have become a core component of investor portfolios, with 80% of investors increasing their allocation to these funds in 2024, compared to 53% last year. The Axis report echoed similar sentiments, noting that net sales in the passive category inched up to Rs 8,025 crore in October 2024. The combined assets under management (AUM) of passive funds have surged from Rs 7 lakh crore in September 2023 to over Rs 11 lakh crore by September 2024—a 1.5x growth in just one year. The survey also noted a growing popularity of ETFs, with 57% of respondents investing in them, up from 41% in 2023. Of these, 26% invest solely in ETFs, while 31% have diversified between ETFs and index funds. This rising preference is matched by a commitment to long-term investment. A significant 81% of investors plan to hold their passive investments for over three years, highlighting sustained confidence in the growth potential of these funds. Sectoral indices like Nifty IT and Nifty Bank dominate as the top choice for passive fund investors, selected by 67% of respondents. Benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 follow closely, preferred by 61% of investors. A recent, similar report by stock broker Angel One also throws a spotlight on how young India plans and prefers mutual funds when it comes to savings and investments. The report, titled "Young Indians' Saving Habits Outlook 2024," compiled by Fin One, stated that 45% of respondents aged 22-35 have made it a point to save up some of their savings in mutual funds. A year ago, this figure stood at just 32%. Most of these investors make their way into mutual funds via SIPs, or systematic investment plans. 52% of respondents in the age cohort of 22-35 are now using SIPs to invest in mutual funds, up from 44% in the previous year. As for what was the driving factor behind beginning their investment journey, 42% underlined the past performance of funds, while 38% noted that advice from financial advisors remained a key consideration. 38% of young Indians are now increasingly focusing on building an emergency corpus, compared to 28% the year before. This shift underscores the drastic change in financial sensibilities brought forth by the pandemic and the consequent desire for greater financial resilience. In fact, approximately 4 out of every 5 surveyed investors maintained a dedicated, separate savings account. Out of the 1,650 individuals studied under the FinOne survey, a staggering majority made their first foray into the stock market in their early twenties. Nearly 2 in every 5 investors pick stock as their preferred choice of investment, followed by mutual funds and then savings bank accounts. While 45% of those surveyed picked stocks as their chosen investment avenue, 20% preferred mutual funds, and 15% wanted to keep their money in a savings bank account.

Gen Z and Millennials prefer stocks and mutual funds; index funds trump over ETFs, say recent reports

The polls were wrong, again. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/startup-success-secret-vcs-founders-nate-silver-on-the-edge-2024-8">Nate Silver</a> ran 80,000 simulations of election outcomes and found that Vice President Kamala Harris won in 40,012 of them. The race that Donald Trump ultimately ran away with was deemed neck and neck for days — unless you looked at the prediction markets.Election betting on Kalshi and Polymarket had been favoring Trump for weeks. Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-polymarket-top-apple-app-store-downloads-election-betting-surge-2024-11">Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store</a> on Tuesday evening.On Wednesday morning, the platforms claimed that their victory was as resounding as Trump's."Last night, Kalshi showed how prediction markets can decisively outperform polls and traditional media," Kalshi posted on X. "Not only did our markets offer a sharper view of the Election, we called it before anyone else.""Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else," Shayne Coplan, the company's 26-year-old CEO, posted. "The global truth machine is here, powered by the people." He says Polymarket conveyed a Trump victory two to three hours ahead of traditional media. "It is an inflection point in news and politics," he told CNBC. "Trust the markets, not the polls," he said on X.Should we? And can the prediction markets ride their momentum now that the election's over?<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/betting-markets-polls-trump-election-win-polymarket-kalshi-2024-11">Polymarket and Kalshi</a> have been building quietly, and they view elections as their chance to go mainstream. Coplan has said he was running the crypto-based company alone in his bathroom in 2020. Kalshi was founded in 2018 by two MIT grads. Both became household names just this fall. In addition to politics, people can bet on sports, business, and pop culture, with contracts about whether <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-salary-database-elon-musk-pay-strategy-2024-11">Elon Musk</a> will post on X a certain number of times in a week and whether Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. In late October, Robinhood began offering election betting. There's also PredictIt, which is operated by Victoria University in New Zealand but focuses on US politics.Xavier Sottile, the head of markets at Kalshi, tells me that election night exceeded even the high expectations Kalshi had set for itself. A US appeals court lifted a freeze on Kalshi in October, allowing the site to list contracts that allow for bets on the election. More than 500,000 people were using Kalshi concurrently on election night — both to place bets and to peer into the results of the election. Bettors poured $476 million into the presidential race's outcome on Kalshi. Polymarket's site says more than $3.6 billion was spent betting on the race, though users in the US weren't legally allowed to participate."Nothing is as salient as the presidential election," Sottile says. "But there are things that get pretty salient in the national news." Already Kalshi is adding contracts on outcomes of the second Trump administration, like whether Musk or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be given a Cabinet position, whether tips will no longer be taxed, or whether Trump will be impeached for the third time. (Polymarket is taking wagers on whether Trump will end the war in Ukraine during his first 90 days in office, whether he'll declassify documents related to the assassination of John F. Kennedy, and whom he may pardon.) The sum of the bets being placed on these are a fraction of the election bonanza, but Sottile says there are enough of them, and enough interest, for Kalshi to seize the smaller moments.While the prediction markets are hailing themselves as oracles better equipped to predict the future than polls, Sottile says this isn't the end of polling, which helps inform the odds on Kalshi. But, Kalshi does "want to replace polling," he says, "in the sense that what are you checking every morning to figure out what's going on?"The argument for prediction markets' accuracy is that people are more decisive with their money, picking outcomes they think will happen, not just ones they want to happen. "When they actually put their money behind what they say, they're putting themselves out there," says Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University. He predicts that prediction markets will be around for 2028 — and they'll be bigger. They're also ways to distill the daily news cycle. Rather than reading several news stories about RFK Jr.'s chance of having a Cabinet position, people can turn to the markets. Instead of following each presidential poll, you can see information aggregated as odds on Polymarket. "The stuff I can learn from these markets is incredible," Strumpf says. The betting markets are "not a silver bullet," James Broughel, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, says. "They have their own imperfections, just like all of the other metrics do." While the markets nailed that outcome, they didn't forecast the popular vote as precisely: On Polymarket at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Trump had just a 28% chance of winning. Kalshi wagers on the popular vote didn't favor Trump until 11 p.m. The platforms have raised concerns about whether individuals with fat pockets can sway politics. The French trader who pumped more than $30 million into Polymarket is thought to have made <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">$85 million</a> when Trump won. But this wasn't an indication of support: The man, who is known only as Théo, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3">The Wall Street Journal</a> that he had "absolutely no political agenda" but believed Trump would win.Kalshi says that it ensures that all contracts on its site have "minimal risk of manipulation" and that it does not incentivize "harmful behavior." The platform bans trading on war, assassination, and illegal activity, and it bars people with insider information on the contract from participating. (For bets on politics, that can include campaign staffers and donors.) Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment for this story. In a note on an available contract about whether Iran will strike Israel — on which more than $1 million has been traded — Polymarket says, "After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not."Prediction markets are "going to attract people who want to influence public perception," Broughel says. Instead of spending money on TV ads or donating, supporters of certain political candidates may find ways to place wagers to use their influence. "I suspect as these markets grow more prominent, it's possible their usefulness will decline," Broughel added. Eighty-five percent of people who've placed bets on Kalshi are men, and more than 70% of people are under 40, according to the company. Those stats aren't surprising: Research suggests that men are more likely than women to gamble, buy stocks, and trade crypto. But Sottile argues that even if the platforms become more mainstream and diversified, prices and predictions will likely stay similar, as there are lots of people trading on the big election issues to balance out differing viewpoints.As we wait to see how Polymarket, Kalshi, and their competitors fare in 2028, there are wagers to place on questions like whether Trump will <a target="_blank" href="https://polymarket.com/event/trump-transgender-sports-ban?tid=1731342855843">bar transgender athletes</a> from participating in sports or whether <a target="_blank" href="https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnytsubs/nyt-subscribers">The New York Times</a> gains a certain number of subscribers. Don't bet on these prediction markets going away anytime soon.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/amanda-hoover">Amanda Hoover</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider covering the tech industry. She writes about the biggest tech companies and trends.

Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bitcoin has hit a record high as Donald Trump leads in the US presidential election.</li><li>Trump's support for digital assets is boosting investor confidence in cryptocurrencies.</li></ul>Bitcoin hit a record high as Republican candidate Donald Trump took the clear lead in the US presidential election on Tuesday night.The former president's position in the race prompted a rush of so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Trump trades</a> as investors bet on assets that could gain under another Trump term.One of the winning trades was cryptocurrencies. Trump has <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">supported digital assets</a> in recent years and his pro-crypto stance is lifting bitcoin to a new record high, wrote Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, on election night.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> climbed to over $75,000 Tuesday night, and while it slightly pared gains, the currency was up 8% around $74,700 at 12:51 a.m. ET on Wednesday.The digital asset also jumped because a potential Trump presidency is associated with tax cuts, steeper tariffs, a deeper deficit, a higher level of debt, more Treasury issuance, and higher inflation, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com</a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="http://capital.com/">,</a> wrote in a note.The US dollar is expected to rise on higher Treasury yields because higher inflation would constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates."The greater inflationary risks and higher levels of debt also support assets like gold and bitcoin, which investors buy to hedge themselves against such trends," Rodda wrote.The crypto industry has been at odds with President Joe Biden's administration over regulations — though the currency surged more than 100% during his term.Crypto investors expect a friendlier reception with Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, who has also <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">embraced crypto.</a>Gautam Chhugani, a Bernstein analyst, said in September that <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.

Bitcoin hits a record high on Trump trade rush

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The presidential election has the potential to reshape the investment landscape.</li><li>Detailed below is what Wall Street is saying about investing implications across multiple asset classes.</li></ul>With the presidential election just over a week away, and the candidates in a dead heat in the polls, Americans are in suspense about how their lives will change under a new leader.Business Insider has prepared a five-part refresher for the final stretch that will unpack the potential impact that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies will have on US consumers. Today's first installment is focused on the investment landscape.To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. Their varying platforms will also be crucial in determining the future path of interest rates, which will shape the bond market.But they're not expected to have diametrically opposed impacts on everything, with both candidates seen as positive forces for crypto.Detailed below is the latest research and commentary from top Wall Street strategists, outlining how the market and investing landscape will shift under potential Trump or Harris administrations.The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each.<h2 id="40896f3b-9c3a-42aa-82ae-49a1761381ac">Stocks</h2>From the perspective of equities, it's helpful to look at the potential impact on both the micro (specific sectors set to be impacted) and the macro (how the broader market will respond).<h3 id="24c47698-0ee7-4a48-bb04-abe2a4f630c2">Trump</h3><h4 id="51cc4655-bf14-43bc-b772-b54703215a1c">Sectors</h4>Much of the industry guidance for the stock market under Trump boils down to his proposed tax policies. Bank of America says his plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost corporate earnings by 4%. How much it impacts each sector ultimately depends on sensitivity to changes in the tax rate.To that end, BofA says the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors — the areas most beholden to tax-rate changes — will benefit the most. On the flip side, less exposed areas like utilities, real estate, and energy will get the smallest boost.For energy specifically, Trump's pro-drilling stance — while supportive of industry activity — will likely lead to oversupply and lower oil prices, says BNY Wealth. That, in turn, will hurt corporate profitability in the sector and drag on stock prices.It's also worth noting that energy was the worst-performing sector during Trump's previous presidential tenure.Financials is another area of the stock market seen benefiting from a Trump win. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">Allies of the former president have said</a> he aims to unburden banks from many of the regulations that were imposed following the 2008 financial crisis, something that his first administration tried to do with limited success.Those looser regulations could could also ignite a fresh wave of mergers and acquisitions, which would increase advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits from dealmaking.<h4 id="08ac2f7c-0094-48df-8910-ca3b12ae746a">Broader market</h4>Zooming out and assessing the full equity-market landscape, views are divided, particularly along partisan lines. Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies are seen by his supporters as pro-business, which would be good news for corporate profit growth and deal activity.But Trump critics argue that his proposal for universal tariffs and steeper levies on Chinese imports — as well as a crackdown on immigration — will be inflationary, which could hold back stock prices. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation says the tariff plan in particular could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-mckinley-tariffs-great-depression/">hurt profit margins and put pressure on consumer spending</a>.Bank of America estimates that 60% tariffs on China and 10% on other countries would lower S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 3.1%. That would be a problem since earnings growth has long been the stock market's primary driver of gains."The conventional wisdom is wrong: Trump is not going to substantially cut taxes once in office; he is going to raise taxes by jacking up tariffs. To the extent that this dampens economic activity, it is bad news for stocks," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin said.<h3 id="fe116c39-7eef-494d-b923-93e68c7490b4">Harris</h3><h4 id="82c14dd6-d54a-4af0-a6d6-b171c6d4ccd1">Sectors</h4>Just like with Trump, much of the guidance around the stock market under Harris involves her tax plan. Her proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% would have an inverse effect on sectors.That means consumer discretionary and communication services — the top beneficiaries under Trump — would be hit the hardest under a Harris regime, BofA says."Consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 modestly since Harris' presidential candidacy was announced, perhaps reflecting concerns that a Democratic President could result in higher corporate taxes and employee wages," BNY Wealth said.Financial firms will also feel a negative impact of both higher taxes and Harris' proposed regulatory tightening.But there are bright spots too. A Harris victory would likely benefit homebuilder stocks because of her proposal to build 3 million houses. Renewable-energy stocks should also see gains due to the favorable view of wind and solar energy by Democrats.Both sectors have outperformed in recent months during periods when Harris saw positive momentum in election polls.<h4 id="27decf30-ab8c-4ed1-beaf-70dfe2073247">Broader market</h4>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">has soared to records</a> during Joe Biden's presidency, up more than 50% since he was inaugurated, and a Kamala Harris win would likely be a continuation of many of the same policies that have been supportive of the market.Those include infrastructure investments and tax incentives to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country, like in the semiconductor industry via the CHIPS and Science Act.But BofA says Harris' proposed tax hike would also put downward pressure on corporate profits, which estimates a 5% earnings hit. Beyond that, a quadrupling of the stock buyback tax to 4% would also take 1% off S&amp;P 500 profits, the firm said.With all of these cross-currents swirling, a neutral market outcome must also be assessed.<h3 id="cefe8193-23a0-4521-8119-4d27dde3396d">A potentially muted impact</h3>Capital Economics believes neither a Trump nor Harris win will mean all that much for stock prices because bigger trends — specifically AI — will shape the market's direction."Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. Capital Economics has a 2025 year-end price target of 7,000 for the S&amp;P 500, regardless of which candidate wins the election.Meanwhile, Bank of America said that as long as corporate profits continue to grow, the stock market will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">rise regardless of who wins</a> the White House.<h2 id="7a7d474f-4301-46c7-a48c-d475d0abd0a4">Bonds</h2>The performance of the US bond market largely hinges on the direction of interest rates.As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and vice versa. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.<h3 id="aa298578-a5d5-4e0a-ab3b-fcb78a88d8dc">Trump</h3>A Trump win would is seen ushering in higher interest rates, which would push bond prices lower. It ultimately boils down to inflation.Economists see Trump's double-whammy proposals of mass deportation and universal tariffs as inflationary. And since the Federal Reserve's primary tool for fighting inflation is raising interest rates, bond prices would suffer as yields rise."Our assessment is that a Trump win would lead to higher US yields," Capital Economics said.Estimates from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> — a non-profit think tank — say a wider deficit and an increasing pile of debt under a Trump presidency, compared to a Harris presidency, would also put upward pressure on interest rates. That would also hurt the performance of bonds.<h3 id="c267d16e-6b3a-4db4-8316-c599ab723494">Harris</h3>Capital Economics said it expects interest rates to fall under a Harris win, which would be good news for bonds, as she wouldn't pursue certain inflationary policies like tariffs or immigration deportations, which could fuel wage inflation.Harris' policies, considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, would also allow the Federal Reserve to continue on their path of cutting interest rates, which would boost bond prices.A Bloomberg survey of institutional investors last month found that 30% of investors would add to their bond exposure if Harris wins, while just 17% said they would buy more bonds if Trump wins.Additionally, 46% of respondents said they would reduce their bond exposure if Trump wins, compared to just 23% under a Harris win.<h2 id="648d1263-465a-44c9-b50e-97ea3cd444a7">Crypto</h2><h3 id="77a393b0-f8c1-49d8-b73b-e2f0119e53e1">Trump</h3>A Trump win is seen as bullish for bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry, as former President Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">firmly embraced digital assets</a> in recent years.According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election, representing potential upside of about 37% from current levels."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.<h3 id="58f9bbfb-d544-465f-8607-1b699202db17">Harris</h3>Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">has also embraced the crypto industry</a> in recent months, though she's seen as slightly less bullish compared to Trump, given his public displays of support, including addressing crypto conferences and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nfts-digital-cards-mahattan-trial-2024-5">launching his own NFTs</a>.Yet, Wall Street seems to think that a big case for bitcoin will remain intact no matter who wins. The US government debt pile is expected grow regardless of who controls the White House. That scenario is among bitcoin's biggest bull theses."I'm not sure if either President or other candidate would make a difference. I do believe the utilization of digital assets is going to become more and more of a reality worldwide," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during the company's third-quarter earnings call.<h2 id="bb5f6b7e-fd9d-459b-a7dd-22eebbb1993b">US dollar</h2><h3 id="0ae89f53-6e41-467c-8f2a-8aa885fcaf18">Trump</h3>Trump's tax plan and protectionist trade policies are expected to strengthen the dollar. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">the opposite</a> of what the presidential hopeful has said he wants, since a weaker currency makes a nation's exports more competitive in global trade.These policies are expected to be inflationary, which would push interest rates higher and possibly prompt the Fed to tighten. Those climbing rates would then underpin dollar gains."Should he re-take the White House ... the dollar would probably rally sharply, at least in the near term, on expectations of higher US tariffs and interest rates," Capital Economics said in recent research.<h3 id="e5ae53de-b9c3-4069-a7a1-5fc244dc29c6">Harris</h3>A Harris presidency would continue the trends of a weaker dollar due to "policy continuity" of the Biden administration, Capital Economics said.Since Harris' overall platform is less expansionary, it's expected to drive less inflationary pressure, and therefore keep the coast clear for the Fed to cut rates and stimulate the economy as currently planned.That likelihood of lower interest would, in turn, push the dollar lower.

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks have rallied since Trump won the election as traders expect his policies to drive growth.</li><li>But the market is confusing positive conditions from Trump's first term with current reality, a research firm said.</li></ul>The market is wrong to expect another period of outsize growth under Donald Trump, and should dial back risk as a result, BCA Research says.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11?_gl=1*ovl9fb*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTkzMzI0Ny40MTcuMS4xNzMxOTM1MTQ1LjQyLjAuMA..">Stocks have rallied</a> nearly across the board since <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Trump</a> won the election earlier this month, with the S&amp;P 500 up nearly 2% since Election Day and stock exposure hitting an 11-year high. Traders are betting Trump's proposals for broad deregulation and corporate tax cuts will boost corporate earnings, particularly among so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10?_gl=1*1hmjfnh*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTkzMzI0Ny40MTcuMS4xNzMxOTM1MTkxLjYwLjAuMA..">Trump trades</a> like bank stocks.But the research firm says those proposed policies might not prove as big of a boost to the market as they did when Trump first entered the White House."The market is expecting Trump to enact a flurry of policies that will unleash a year of growth like 2017. But we believe the consensus is wrong," strategist Juan Correa said, pointing to a starkly different economic backdrop this time around versus at the start of his first term.When Trump entered the White House in 2017, he was met with rising inflation and the start of a hiking cycle from the Federal Reserve. This time, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stanley-druckenmiller-fed-rate-cuts-inflation-1970s-trump-election-fomc-2024-11">inflation</a> is coming down, as has rates. That makes the Fed's focus pinned on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://businessinsider.com/next-fed-rate-cut-forecast-jumbo-unemployment-labor-market-citi-2024-11">labor market</a>, which has started showing signs of deterioration, Correa says.Meanwhile, global growth appears to be on the downward slide. China's stimulus hasn't been enough to boost its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-property-stimulus-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-2024-10">property sector</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-is-experiencing-factory-boom-but-finding-workers-is-difficult-2023-7">manufacturing employment</a> remains tepid with the ISM manufacturing index under 50, while in 2017 it neared 60 and was already beginning to accelerate well before Trump's win."Those betting on a 2017 scenario are doing so based on data from eight years ago," Correa said.Some investors may argue that Trump's policies could reverse those macro trends, with pro-growth and inflationary policies like he implemented in his first term, and that those might be especially possible to enact with a Republican-controlled Congress.But that is likely an overestimate, Correa says. In his mind, it isn't clear that Trump's tax cuts were actually at the heart of economic growth in 2017. He thinks that generating additional growth through government spending will be harder this time around. With such large deficits already, it's unlikely there will be such a big increase from current levels, and projections for fiscal force next year are already negative, he said.In short, traders are looking at Trump through the lens of his past term, rather than the odds stacked against him now."Investors are playing the man and not the macro. Even worse, they are playing not the man today but the man from eight years ago. As a result, several assets are overextended in our view," Correa said, pointing to small caps, the dollar and risk assets.Correa recommends positioning defensively instead, out of stocks and into bonds."We remain underweight equities and are defensively positioned. Bonds are offering outstanding value. Even in the event of a soft landing, 10-year Treasurys would return 12% from current levels over the next year," he said.

The market is too confident about Trump, and investors should play defense instead, research firm says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings of consumer companies with high exposure to China could suffer under Trump's trade policies, UBS says.</li><li>The analysts said Best Buy, Five Below, and Wayfair are especially at risk. </li></ul>Donald Trump's proposal of stiff tariffs on goods from China could slam the earnings of some retailers, UBS analysts said. Several US-listed stocks—namely, Best Buy, Five Below, and Wayfair—are heavily exposed to Trump's trade proposed trade policy, the bank said in a note. "Tariffs are likely to pose a significant headwind for several of these retailers for at least the near-term. While the longer-term implications are unclear, we do believe that this situation is more likely to lead to at least temporary mis-pricings for some of these stocks," the analysts said in a Monday note."Right now, we think the overhang is significant on names like Five Below, Best Buy, and Wayfair," they added.The analysts say that if those retailers were to absorb 5% of the rise in the cost of goods associated with a potential tariff, they would each experience a double-digit plunge in earnings; Five Below would see a 15% reduction, Best Buy would experience a 26% loss, and Wayfair could see earnings plunge over 40%, the analysts said.The analysts' estimates come as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in the polls. The former president has proposed 20% duties on imports across the board, with far more drastic <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">60% tariffs</a> on products from China. Five Below, Best Buy, and Wayfair each have high exposure to goods from China. But it isn't all bad news for these stocks. The analysts said that historical trends show that retailers often find ways to adapt, and even these stocks have unique circumstances that could spare them from the potential hits to earnings.For instance, even if Five Below raises prices, it may still offer greater value than competitors, while Wayfair's vendors could simply pass along the tariffs to the consumer in the form of higher prices rather than assuming it themselves, the analysts say. At Best Buy, there's a chance the market prices for consumer electronics simply adjust, insulating the retailer from bearing the brunt of the tariffs independently, the analysts say.As the situation gets clearer, the stocks could see some upside."There could be select opportunities to use this uncertainty as a chance to accumulate the shares of some of these names when the peak fear exists," the analysts said, adding, "As there is more clarity on the situation, these stocks likely also have the most to gain from having greater resolution on the situation."In the past, high duties on China <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-list-of-goods-tariffs-2018-9">during Trump's first term</a> resulted in higher prices in categories subject to the tariffs, which likely contributed to slowing consumer spending, the report said.

3 retail stocks could see earnings plunge if Trump implements his proposed tariffs, UBS says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris has dwindled since Joe Biden left the race.</li><li>The Des Moines Register's Iowa poll found Trump's lead among likely voters is down to just 4 percentage points.</li></ul>In 2016, Donald Trump's nine-point victory in Iowa was part of what became a sweeping sea change in the state's politics. But even as he's favored to win again for the third-straight cycle, a new poll hints that Trump's reelection bid may be in trouble in nearby Midwest states.Iowa <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-democrats-struggling-ascendant-gop-2024-presidential-race-trump-biden-2023-8">shifted from being a swing state</a> to one where Republicans are firmly in the driver's seat. The Iowa legislature is dominated by the GOP, and the state's congressional delegation now consists solely of Republican lawmakers.When Trump ran for reelection in 2020, he easily won Iowa, dashing Democrats' hopes of a comeback in a state that, in 2008 and 2012, had backed Barack Obama — whose political career was launched in neighboring Illinois.Barring a massive political shift, Iowa is set to support Trump in November. In June, before President Joe Biden stepped aside as the Democratic nominee, Trump had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/06/17/2024-election-donald-trump-vs-joe-biden-vs-robert-kennedy-jr-iowa-poll/74088665007/">a huge 18-point lead</a> (50% to 32%) over Biden in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of likely voters.But in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-iowa-lead-shrinks-as-kamala-harris-replaces-joe-biden/75180245007/">newly released poll</a> from the highly respected pollsters, Trump only led Vice President Kamala Harris by four points (47% to 43%) among likely voters, a stunning figure that shows Harris has made up considerable ground compared to Biden.Iowa Democrats, like others throughout the country, are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-50-days-vance-walz-electoral-math-2024-9">overwhelmingly enthusiastic</a> about Harris' candidacy, according to the poll. But in Iowa, Trump is also faltering with female voters, the poll found, a reflection of an enduring gender gap that threatens his chances in the seven <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">swing states</a> he'll need to win in November — and has made the race closer than expected in the Hawkeye State.If signs of major electoral weaknesses can be found in Iowa, what does that say about his overall chances?<h2 id="70525b40-c560-4ae0-9bcf-647decc2fd55">Trump has a female voter problem nationally — and in Iowa</h2>Even in June, when Biden was still in the presidential race, Trump had a low favorable rating among independent women in Iowa.At the time, women overall favored Biden nationally.But Harris' entry into the race strengthened her support among female voters across the country. In Iowa, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sun-belt-gains-trump-swing-states-polls-2024-8">the gender gap</a> is as pronounced as it is in many swing states.The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll showed Harris with a 17-point advantage over Trump (53% to 36%) with likely female voters, while male voters supported Trump by a larger 27-point margin (59% to 32%).On the campaign trail, Trump has touted his three Supreme Court appointments, which led to the 2022 decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and sent the issue of abortion back to the states. It's a decision that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">continues to haunt Republicans</a> across the country, as the party has suffered myriad electoral losses over the past two years tied to issues involving reproductive rights.In July, a <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/iowa-abortion-ban-bd8a959fd64fef5914459e9ea4a64294">six-week abortion ban</a> went into effect in Iowa. It's a reflection of the agenda of the state's GOP-led legislature, which championed the law.But <a target="_blank" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2023/03/27/iowa-poll-most-iowans-back-legal-abortion-as-iowa-supreme-court-mulls-limits-roe-v-wade/69990037007/">in an Iowa poll conducted last year</a>, 61% of all voters said abortion should be legal "in most or all cases," with 70% of Iowa women expressing that opinion.In the latest Iowa poll, state voters gave Harris <a target="_blank" href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/09/16/iowa-poll-most-favor-trump-over-harris-on-immigration-inflation/75180273007/">an 11-point point edge</a> over Trump (53% to 42%) on the issue of abortion. On every other major issue polled, from immigration to housing prices, Trump held an advantage over the vice president.Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-pennsylvania-presidential-debate-philadelphia-fracking-abortion-2024-9">struggled to refine his messaging</a> on the issue for swing voters in key states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, which has given Harris a major opening.And it currently works to her advantage. Abortion isn't an issue that can be neatly put in an ideological, partisan box. There are Republican voters who back some form of abortion rights despite the GOP's overall anti-abortion stance. That's created trouble for Trump among voters of all stripes, even in Iowa.<div type="image" title="Kamala Harris" height="2641" width="3962" msid="113405216" hostid="261" sizebytes="142810"></div>Meanwhile, Harris has clearly changed the race. National polling mirrors what the Iowa survey found regarding an explosion of enthusiasm among the Democratic base. This is one of the main reasons that Trump's massive lead is now trending closer to his 2020 margin. The Iowa poll found that Iowans under age 45 are now 10 points more likely to vote, while voters with a college degree are nine points more likely to vote and those who live in cities are now six points more likely to vote."This poll may be catching newly energized voters who thought they would sit out the election at the time our June poll was taken," pollster J. Ann Selzer told The Register.<h2 id="3d407244-be45-430b-b98a-0cbdde720865">Trump's slim Iowa lead could point to problems in more competitive states</h2>Trump is still heavily favored to prevail in Iowa. Election forecaster Nate Silver's model gives the former president overwhelming odds to carry its six electoral votes. After all, Democrats control just one of the statewide offices.Still, the poll shows why the intense focus on the seven swing states can sometimes be detrimental. Look no further than former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the longtime Democrat who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rfk-jr-drops-out-presidential-race-2024-8">endorsed Trump</a> and abandoned his third-party run. Kennedy is fighting to get off the ballot in swing states, but he missed the deadline to remove himself from the Iowa ballot.The Iowa poll found that six percent of voters still back Kennedy, a decrease from June but still a number that could cause headaches. It's also not certain that Kennedy will get his wish to be taken off the ballot in every swing state, as Wisconsin officials and Michigan's highest court have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://wisconsinwatch.org/2024/09/wisconsin-kennedy-rfk-election-ballot-republican-democrat-clerk/">rejected his efforts</a>.An equally intriguing poll of Alaska, a state that is notoriously difficult to survey, showed Trump with only <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/the_real_asr/status/1834657703509324089?s=46">a five-percentage point lead</a> there — despite carrying Alaska by just over ten points in 2020. Thanks to at-large Rep. Mary Peltola, there are actually more Democrats in Alaska's congressional delegation than Iowa's, even though a Democratic presidential nominee has only carried Alaska once (Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964) since it was admitted to the union.It's far more likely that the Iowa survey illustrates Trump's struggles elsewhere.The poll found that Harris performs best with voters who live in the suburbs and those with a college degree, two demographics where Trump has long had problems.The good news for Trump is that the Iowa poll shows he's doing well among rural voters and those without a college degree, two groups that fueled his 2016 victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.Trump and Iowa Republicans have relied heavily on working-class voters to make the state more red. And working-class voters hold considerable sway in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If Trump hopes to regain the White House, he'll need to make sure his gains among the working class outweigh his losses among women.

A top poll showing Trump narrowly ahead in Iowa is a warning sign for his campaign

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Biden supporters are raising Trump's associations with Jeffrey Epstein — again.</li><li>Recently-released docs in the Epstein investigation make no mention of Trump.</li></ul>Some Joe Biden supporters are employing a tried-and-true strategy to fend off <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-democrats-capitol-hill-paralysis-joe-biden-2024-7">rampant debate</a> over the President's age and mental acuity: deflection.On social media — and even in the halls of Congress — certain Biden supporters are using Donald Trump's associations with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein as an argument to disqualify him.Discourse about Trump and Epstein was reignited after documents from Epstein's first Florida investigation in 2006 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-epstein-transcript-plea-deal-prosecutors-2024-7">were released last week</a>.But the 158-page document — a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mypalmbeachclerk.com/home/showpublisheddocument/4194/638554423710170000">grand jury transcript</a> showing prosecutors heard testimony that Epstein raped girls as young as 14, then still cut him a sweetheart plea deal — makes no mention of Trump himself.Still, some seized the news cycle as a way to counteract doubts about Biden's own fitness to run for office in 2024.<h2 id="04dffdcc-35b6-4b51-8bc8-1570228e2bca">Why no one's writing about Trump and Epstein</h2>During a press conference on Tuesday, Rep. Ted Lieu of California urged more media coverage of the "Epstein files," adding that a "highly disturbing" hashtag about Trump and Epstein was trending on X.Trump had previously been photographed with Epstein, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/Acyn/status/1810744824477405193">Lieu said</a>, had flown with him on planes with young girls on board, and the two were listed on call logs together."It shows that Donald Trump is unfit for office," the congressman said, adding Trump was also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-liable-rape-e-jean-carroll-jury-verdict-2023-5">convicted of sexual abuse in civil court</a>.Ben Meiselas, the cofounder of liberal news network Meidas Touch, also <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/meiselasb/status/1809791021406187551">posted on X</a> about "the release of new Epstein files with Trump's name on it." Other Biden boosters have suggested a coordinated media cover-up to boost Trump's chances or doom Biden's.But Trump isn't named in the latest records, a fact reiterated on X by <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/1811014027826401788">Julie Brown</a>, the Miami Herald investigative journalist who helped break the Epstein story.Media outlets haven't reported on Trump's connection to the new Epstein files because there isn't one.<h2 id="ccf4d157-52ce-40c3-8667-4b3e8d176cfa">What we know about Trump's relationship with Epstein</h2>Trump has appeared in previous unsealed and uncovered documents connected to the Epstein case.Trump was also connected to 14 different numbers in Epstein's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/search-jeffrey-epsteins-little-black-book-for-the-first-time-2020-7">little black book of contacts</a> that surfaced before the financier's arrest on sex trafficking charges in 2019. Among the contacts were Trump's wife, Melania; ex-wife, Ivana; and daughter, Ivanka.The contact book also included the names of high-profile celebrities like Courtney Love, Alec Baldwin, and Naomi Campbell, as well as politicians and dignitaries like John Kerry, Michael Bloomberg, Henry Kissinger, and Prince Andrew.Unsealed flight logs in 2019 revealed Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-jeffrey-epstein-flight-logs-unsealed-2019-8">took a flight</a> on Epstein's private jet in 2017; billionaire couple Glenn and Eva Dubin joined him on the flight from Palm Beach to Newark.And in January, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-doe-jeffrey-epstein-documents-unsealed-2024-1">Business Insider analysis</a> of then-unsealed court records determined Trump appeared in the documents multiple times under the moniker "Doe 174."However, the mentions in those documents weren't all damning for the former President, BI's Jacob Shamsian reported at the time.In one instance, a woman denied in a deposition that she'd massaged Trump. In another, a woman claimed — then recanted — that her friend had had sex with him. And Virginia Roberts Giuffre, one of the key accusers of sexual abuse by Epstein and his associates, said in one document that she <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-epstein-accuser-didnt-think-trump-involved-sexual-abuse-deposition-2024-1">didn't think Trump was involved</a>.Trump had previously faced allegations by an anonymous woman that claimed he had violently raped her at an orgy when she was 13 years old. The woman — who went by the pseudonym "Katie Johnson" — even filed a lawsuit against Trump, twice.The first was a civil rights suit in April 2016 that was thrown out on a technicality. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/3/13501364/trump-rape-13-year-old-lawsuit-katie-johnson-allegation">Vox noted</a> that the original suit listed the woman's apparent address as an abandoned home.She filed a second lawsuit that removed some of the lurid details. Still, the case was connected to strange characters, including a Jerry Springer producer who tried to sell a video of the purported accuser to news outlets for $1 million and an anti-Trump activist who promoted the lawsuit — and had a history of spreading untrue gossip.The woman abruptly dropped the lawsuit in November 2016, just days before the election that Donald Trump would win. Her lawyer <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/LisaBloom/status/794698295775993856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E794698295775993856%7Ctwgr%5E0851fe9570681e3abac530206f09f46c311e6cf9%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2Fpolicy-and-politics%2F2016%2F11%2F3%2F13501364%2Ftrump-rape-13-year-old-lawsuit-katie-johnson-allegation">didn't share a reason</a> for why the lawsuit was dropped at the time.Trump had publicly praised Epstein before his sexual abuse allegations came to light. He called Epstein a "terrific guy" in 2002, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey-epstein-trump-link-liking-women-on-the-younger-side-2019-7">adding</a>, "It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side."But the Washington Post reported the two men had a falling out in 2004 after they both wanted to buy a prime Palm Beach property.After Epstein's arrest, Trump told reporters, "I was not a fan of his, that I can tell you." Trump has also said he barred Epstein from Mar-A-Lago.

Biden's allies are pushing old stories about Trump's connections with Jeffrey Epstein 

Late last year, my wife and I closed on a deal for an apartment in a hilltop town in Umbria. Soon after, I posted a question for my fellow participants in a Facebook group called Expats in Italy: "Is it just my imagination, but is there an uptick in Americans, in particular, looking to purchase property in Italy?" As the responses poured in, many of them sounded a distinct thematic note.From a woman in Montana who was planning to move to Tuscany: "Yes, it's true! I bought a hilltop village home … for a song compared to US prices. Don't want to be in US anymore. It's expensive and sick of all the political crap and shootings." From a woman in Texas: "An insurrection by a narcissist who couldn't accept election loss combined with his gun and abortion policies made moving more of a necessity than just a dream." From a man in Tennessee: "I'm an American ready to flee America for Italy. I doubt I'm alone."Not alone, indeed. Granted, my unscientific survey was limited to a self-selected group of people with a declared fancy for one particular foreign country renowned for its artistic and cultural treasures, scrumptious cuisine, and exquisite landscapes. Still, it was striking that the specter of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-brags-sexy-thrifty-fussy-are-hush-money-evidence-da-2024-3">Donald Trump</a> — a looming shadow I hadn't even mentioned in my question — was on so many minds.Every four years, as Americans gird themselves to choose a president, there's talk, mainly among Democrats, of leaving the country. I'm off for Canada if unacceptable candidate X wins! And every four years, the promised exodus fails to materialize. It's mostly just therapeutic venting. This time is different.The alarm over Trump's potential triumph in November is far starker than the fears stoked by past presidents. "A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable," a recent Washington Post headline warned. The Atlantic devoted an entire issue to the authoritarian horrors in store for America "If Trump Wins." Every four years or so, Gallup asks Americans ages 15 and up: "Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move PERMANENTLY to another country?" At the end of George W. Bush's presidency, the number responding "yes" was 11%. During <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-michelle-obama-net-worth-2018-7">Barack Obama's tenure</a>, it was 10%. During Trump's presidency, it hit 16%. That's some 40 million Americans who wanted to leave their country behind, for good.Young people are even more likely to be hopeful expats. Among those under 30, 24% wanted to leave America at the close of Bush's tenure, 18% during Obama's, and 30% during Trump's. As with all things Trump, there was a sharp gender divide: Only 20% of young men wanted to flee America, compared to a whopping 40% of young women.Americans already living overseas are bracing for a wave of new expats. "There will be more people moving abroad after the election if it is Trump," said Doris Speer, the president of the Association of Americans Resident Overseas, a nonpartisan group based in Paris. Stressing that she was expressing her own views, not those of her organization, Speer emphasized that Trump is far from the only reason Americans are eyeing the exits. That's true: Housing prices in America are high, remote work is allowing for unprecedented mobility, and global respect for the United States has been eroding for decades, dating back to the war in Iraq. Fewer and fewer Americans, pollsters have found, believe "the American Dream — that if you work hard you'll get ahead — still holds true." In 2012, it was 53%. By October 2023, it was down to 36%.A second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/donald-trump">Trump</a> presidency, Speer said, could serve as a "catalyst" that further fuels the growing diaspora of Americans living in exile. After November, Europe could well become what Canada was for draft dodgers during the Vietnam War: a political asylum for Americans fed up with their own country. Call them Trump's Exiles.For those casting a worried eye abroad, the economic draw is not insignificant. When I was looking to buy an apartment in Umbria, in central Italy, I found that prices for turnkey places were about a third of the price of condos in Sedona, Arizona. Property taxes and homeowners insurance are also relatively modest in Italy. Gas is more expensive, but the mouthwatering fare at local restaurants — wild-boar ragù, anyone? — is way cheaper. Politics aside, the dollars-and-cents pull to leave America is strong.But a rising tide of conservatism at home is clearly driving more Americans to consider a move abroad. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/scotus-rules-trump-eligibility-campaign-president-colorado-super-tuesday-2024-3">Supreme Court's</a> decision to overturn Roe v. Wade — one of Trump's signature accomplishments — has aroused widespread anger and discontent. But while America is cracking down on reproductive rights, Europe is expanding them. Abortion is now permitted in nearly all European countries, including Catholic countries such as Portugal, Spain, and Italy. Prompted by tightening US policies, France just enshrined the right to abortion in its constitution — the first country ever to take that landmark step.Americans are also sickened by the never-ending rash of horrific school shootings, despite majority support for gun control. From the United Kingdom to Norway, gun-ownership laws are much stricter than in the United States, which is home to nearly half of the world's civilian-owned guns. All of which makes it no surprise that Democrats are far more likely to flee America than Republicans. Since 2015, Democrats Abroad, the foreign-based arm of the Democratic National Committee, has nearly tripled its membership, which now numbers in the hundreds of thousands. "When we do voter registration, we register everybody," Martha McDevitt-Pugh, the international chair of Democrats Abroad, told me on a Zoom call from her base in the Netherlands. "And we come overwhelmingly across Democrats who want to vote." Hollywood is further stoking a seductive image of expat life. Netflix's smash hit "Emily in Paris" — an inspiration for a new generation of American Francophiles, heirs to the likes of Ernest Hemingway and James Baldwin — is now shooting its fourth season. Leggett International, a real-estate agency based in France, hosts webinars targeting prospective US buyers, who comprise the largest share of its foreign clientele. In "Expats," the new Amazon Prime series set in Hong Kong, Nicole Kidman's character, in the throes of a bedroom frolic with her husband, asks: "Don't you ever miss it, home?" He energetically replies: "I like my life here." Then there's the growing trend of "digital nomads," who reject the antiquated concept of a fixed office in a post-COVID world. By one estimate, there are already some 17 million Americans roaming the globe — nearly half of all digital nomads worldwide. In the age of remote work, young people without enough savings or the credit to purchase foreign property suddenly find themselves able to pack up and leave America. And those who may depart in the wake of a second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-met-with-elon-musk-for-potential-campaign-donation-nyt-2024-3">Trump</a> presidency can enjoy another benefit of life abroad. The website <a target="_blank" href="http://NomadList.com">NomadList.com</a> helpfully informs remote workers that there are now 429 cities where marijuana is legal, from Bangkok to Buenos Aires.In fairness, those who flee America to escape MAGA may find themselves confronted by a host of unpleasant surprises. The headaches start with the red tape. On any given day, my Expats in Italy Facebook group teems with the sort of questions that can drive a novice foreign-property owner batty. Why won't my Italian utility company let me pay my bill with a US credit card? (Answer: Because it won't.) Property bidders must have their offers officially registered with the local municipality and verified by the godlike person known as the "notaio," an official of ancient standing who drafts and authenticates the raft of documents for a fair-size fee. Then there are the tax-reporting requirements. In 2010, Congress enacted the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, which was designed to keep wealthy Americans with substantial foreign assets from evading their tax obligations. But as often happens with such laws, it's not just bank executives with villas on the Côte d'Azur who have been swept up in the enforcement net. Under <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irs-free-tax-filing-tool-eligible-states-2024-2">IRS rules</a>, a taxpayer with aggregate financial assets of just over $50,000 can be subject to reporting requirements. American Citizens Abroad, an expat lobbying group, is pushing to ease the compliance burdens, so far without luck.American expats can also face a political backlash. In Portugal, which has attracted a sizable contingent of Californians, local activists have taken to the streets to protest increases in rent that they blame on the influx of foreigners. "Welcome to Portugal, the new expat haven," read a headline in The Los Angeles Times on the invasion of Golden Staters. "Californians, please go home."John Galey, a semiretired management consultant in California, is moving in the opposite direction. With his passion for Italy, especially its wines, he has visited the country more than a dozen times, and he has long considered owning property there. In a recent email, he told me that his "planning and research would accelerate if Trump wins in November." Even as a self-described "political centrist," he believes that "the consequences of a 'retribution presidency' (plus the ensuing chaos) could be dire for the country."I can see his point. My wife and I are both Trump decriers, although we didn't begin our Italy property search to find a refuge from MAGA-infused America. But now that we own a place, we see it as something of a respite from Trumpland. And we are learning Italian.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/paul-starobin">Paul Starobin</a> is the author of "<a target="_blank" href="https://globalreports.columbia.edu/books/putins-exiles/">Putin's Exiles: Their Fight for a Better Russia</a>," and the host of the "<a target="_blank" href="https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/academic-partners/america-and-beyond-with-paul-starobin">American and Beyond</a>" podcast on the New Books Network.

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