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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

New Delhi [India], February 22 (ANI): The Directorate of Enforcement (ED) has asked the Bureau of Immigration to issue a look out notice against <keyword id="19901244" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="byju-raveendran" source="keywords">Byju Raveendran</keyword>, the founder of the in-crisis edtech company <keyword id="20683048" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjyu" source="keywords">Bjyu</keyword>'s, according to sources. The aim is to prevent <keyword id="20167845" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="raveendran" source="keywords">Raveendran</keyword> from leaving the country. Reportedly, this development comes ahead of a high-stakes Extraordinary General Meeting (<keyword id="19966733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="egm" source="keywords">EGM</keyword>) scheduled for this Friday, where it was reported that certain investors were seeking to oust Raveendran from his position. On Wednesday, the Karnataka High Court had passed an order asking Byju's shareholders not to bring in effect any resolutions during the EGM until the final hearing. The order was on a petition filed by Byjus asking the court to restrain shareholders from holding the EGM. While the court has not stayed the EGM it has kept any resolutions in abeyance till the final hearing. The court will next hear the matter on March 13. Among the issues facing Byju's is the allegation of foreign exchange violations, which has likely prompted the central agency to push for the LOC against Raveendran The Enforcement Directorate had in November 2023 issued show cause notices to Byjus for violations under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) violations amounting to Rs 9362.35 crores. ED had initiated the investigation on the basis of various complaints regarding the foreign investment received by the company Think and Learn Private Limited and the business conduct of the company. The company was also stated to have made significant foreign remittances outside India and investments abroad which were allegedly in contravention of provisions of FEMA, 1999 and caused loss of revenue to the Government of India, ED had earlier stated. "On conclusion of the investigation, it was found that Think &amp; Learn Private Limited &amp; Byju Raveendran have contravened the provisions of FEMA by failing to submit documents of imports against advance remittances made outside India, by failing to realize proceeds of exports made outside India, by delayed filing of documents against the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) received into the company, by failing to file documents against the remittances made by the company outside India and by failing to allot shares against FDI received into the company," the ED had earlier stated. (ANI)

ED issues look out notice against Byju Raveendran: Sources

As <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> doubles down on local <keyword id="6362048" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing" source="Orion">manufacturing</keyword>, <keyword id="6354427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="apple" source="Orion">Apple</keyword> assembled iPhones worth more than Rs 1 lakh crore in India in 2023, according to industry data. Industry sources told IANS on Tuesday that out of Rs 1 lakh crore, Apple exported iPhones worth approximately Rs 65,000 crore to other countries. However, according to industry sources, the actual market value of the iPhones manufactured/assembled in India could be much higher, depending on taxes in other countries. The Economic Times was first to report about Apple's manufacturing data in the country. Apple's manufacturing in India is part of the goals set under the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme. Riding on the local manufacturing growth, mobile phone exports from the country surpassed $9 billion (more than Rs 75,000 crore) from April to November in the current fiscal year, according to the India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA). Led by Apple, India is set to cross $15 billion (over Rs 1,24,000 crore) in mobile phone exports in the current fiscal year (FY24), posting a growth of 35 per cent over the last fiscal year. Apple's revenue in India hit nearly Rs 50,000 crore in FY23, with sales increasing 48 per cent to Rs 49,321 crore and net profit rising 76 per cent to Rs 2,229 crore -- fastest growth of net profit for Apple in India in the last five years. Driven by domestic manufacturing, Apple iPhones were set to garner around 7 per cent market share in the Android-dominated smartphone market in India in 2023. The country is now the second-biggest manufacturing hub for mobile phones due to heavy investment from original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers and companies dealing in components and parts. The mobile phone exports are anticipated to account for about 58 per cent of the overall electronics exports in FY24, compared to around 47 per cent in the previous fiscal year. Apple is aiming to manufacture more than 50 million iPhones in India per year, as it aims to shift some of the production out from China. The tech giant aims to achieve the target within the next two to three years, with additional tens of millions of units planned after that, according to reports. If Apple achieves this target, India would account for a quarter of global <keyword id="6354606" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="iphone" source="Orion">iPhone</keyword> production. China will still remain the largest iPhone producer, a Wall Street Journal report mentioned in December. From Apple to Foxconn, the companies are aiming to leverage domestic capabilities to achieve supply chain diversification and scale up production by manufacturing in the country.

Apple exported 'India-made' iPhones worth Rs 65,000 crore in 2023

Mumbai, Stating that the country's external balances are stronger than expected on the back of strong inflows, a Wall Street brokerage on Tuesday projected a much lower current account deficit which is likely to print at 1 per cent for this fiscal, leaving the balance of payment surplus at USD 39 billion. <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="goldman-sachs" source="keywords">Goldman Sachs</keyword> in a report said the country's external balances remain favourable with a combination of low CAD, strong capital flows, adequate forex reserves and low external debt. Combined with this, expectations for a weaker dollar due to the likely five <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> rate cuts this year suggest a "goldilocks" environment for the country's external balances. Accordingly, the Wall Street major has revised upwards its current account deficit (CAD) forecast to 1 per cent of GDP for FY24 from 1.3 per cent earlier, and 1.3 per cent for FY25 from 1.9 per cent earlier, citing a downward revision to their oil price forecast to USD81/barrel in 2024 from above USD90 earlier; and services exports continuing to surprise higher than prior expectations. The brokerage expects robust capital flows in 2024, driven by strong equity portfolio flows as the Fed starts the easing cycle; robust debt inflows as the bonds are included in the JP <keyword id="20036913" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="morgan" source="keywords">Morgan</keyword>'s global government bond index from June 2024; and higher FDI inflows with the country continuing to benefit from regional supply chain diversification. These capital inflows should help offset lower net corporate dollar borrowing inflows owing to sizable maturities of earlier loans coming up in 2024, it said, adding overall, the balance of payment surplus should jump to USD 39 billion in FY24 but fall to USD 27 billion in the next fiscal. The country's oil imports fell to USD 164 billion in the January-November 2023 period from USD 189 billion a year ago as oil prices were 18 per cent lower during the period. Similarly, services trade surplus is tracking higher as exports have surprised to the upside, driven by both business and software services. With US growth remaining resilient, the report expects services export to remain strong and services trade balance will print in at USD 158 billion up from USD 148 billion. These two will balance out the rise in gold imports which so far stood at USD39.6 billion and may close the fiscal USD44 billion from USD37 billion in FY23. On the other hand non-oil and non-gold imports are tracking marginally higher than earlier forecasts driven mainly by electronic goods and machinery imports among the major sub-components, and may close the year at USD445 billion from USD440 billion. Net FDI inflows stood at USD17 billion up to October 2023 compared to USD36 billion a year ago, while both equity and debt inflows have picked up in Q3 and at the current run rates they may close at USD28 billion this fiscal up from USD24 billion. The report sees the country's external vulnerabilities remaining low with comfortable import cover at around 11 months, higher than the pre-pandemic average of 9.5 months, and the forex reserves as a share of external debt of 99 per cent is at its highest level in the past 10 years, excluding the pandemic years. On the rupee, the brokerage said it continues to see the rupee as a relatively low-volatility carry currency. But quickly noted that despite this "goldilocks" scenario, the rupee is likely to underperform most EM Asia currencies as they expect the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to accumulate inflows and build forex reserves at every opportunity. They continue to expect the dollar/rupee pair to hover around 83-82 in the next three to six months, and then appreciate slightly to 81 over the next 12 months.

Goldman Sachs sees India current account deficit falling to 1% of GDP this fiscal

New Delhi, Feb 4 () The government is working on a proposal to allow 100 per cent foreign direct investment in Air India as it moves ahead with disinvestment of the national carrier, according to sources.
 Currently, FDI in Air India is capped at 49 per cent through the government approval route while 100 per cent FDI is permitted in scheduled domestic carriers, subject to certain conditions, including that it would not be applicable for overseas airlines.
 Allowing 100 per cent FDI in Air India would allow Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) to invest up to 100 per cent. Currently, they can acquire only 49 per cent in the national carrier.
 Sources told that the civil aviation ministry has asked the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) to remove the clause which restricts FDI in Air India to 49 per cent.
 A draft note has been circulated on the issue seeking comments from different ministries, they added.
 In the case of scheduled airlines, 49 per cent FDI is permitted through automatic approval route and any such investment beyond that level requires approval.
 Under the Substantial Ownership and Effective Control (SOEC) framework, which is followed in the airline industry globally, a carrier that flies overseas from a particular country should be substantially owned by that country's government or its nationals.
 Making a second attempt in as many years to divest loss-making Air India, the government came out with the Preliminary Information Memorandum (PIM) for 100 per cent stake sale on January 27.
 Besides, Air India's 100 per cent stake in budget airline Air India Express and 50 per cent shareholding in AISATS, an equal joint venture with Singapore Airlines, have also been offered. RR RAM

Govt working on proposal to allow 100 pc FDI in Air India

New Delhi, Feb 1 () Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country has increased to USD 284 billion during 2014-19, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday while presenting the Union Budget for 2020-21.
"India's FDI got elevated to the level of USD 284 billion during 2014-19 from USD 190 billion that came in during the years 2009-14," she said.
The foreign inflows into India grew 15 per cent to USD 26 billion during the first half of the current financial year.
Sectors which attract maximum foreign inflows include services, computer software and hardware, telecommunications, automobile and trading.
Singapore continued to be the largest source of FDI in India during the first half of the financial year with USD 8 billion investments. It was followed by Mauritius, the US, the Netherlands, and Japan.
 FDI is important as the country requires major investments to overhaul its infrastructure sector to boost growth.
The government last year relaxed foreign investment norms in sectors such as brand retail trading, coal mining and contract manufacturing. RR
 ANU

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FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Ira Alok Puranik

ED issues look out notice against Byju Raveendran: Sources

ANI

Apple exported 'India-made' iPhones worth Rs 65,000 crore in 2023

IANS

Goldman Sachs sees India current account deficit falling to 1% of GDP this fiscal

PTI

Govt working on proposal to allow 100 pc FDI in Air India

PTI

FDI in India rises to USD 284 bn during 2014-19: FM

PTI

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