Best printers for Home

Best Mixer Grinder

Best wired Earphones

Best 43 Inch TV in India

Best Wi Fi Routers

Best Home Theatre in India

Smart Watch under 5000

Best Laptops for Education

Best Laptop for Students

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US crude production hit a new all-time monthly high in August.</li><li>This complicates things for OPEC+, which was planning to start increasing output in December.</li></ul>The US is pumping a record amount of oil. But that may not be welcome news to other crude-producing nations.Domestic output reached <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/">13.4 million barrels a day in August,</a> eclipsing all previous monthly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&amp;s=mcrfpus1&amp;f=m">records</a>. According to US Energy Information Administration data, firms in Texas and New Mexico led the surge.That level of production puts the US at odds with the plans of other oil-producing nations. OPEC+, an alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has said it plans to begin in December a sequence of monthly output increases. But given the decline in the price of crude oil — down 20% from an April high — continued record production from the US, and weakening demand, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-29/oil-traders-split-on-whether-opec-will-hike-supply-in-december">oil traders believe OPEC+ will delay its program</a> for a second time.It's the culmination of a multi-year period that saw OPEC+ members cut production to support higher market prices, only to be undercut by expanding production from non-OPEC exporters.Looking into 2025, analysts speculate that global demand will continue sliding, especially given <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/china-s-slowdown-is-weighing-on-the-outlook-for-global-oil-demand-growth">China's decelerating oil consumption</a>. That's one reason the global oil surplus could swell to 1.2 million barrels per day next year, according to JPMorgan. Otherwise, expanding outflows from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada will also play a part."OPEC+ increasingly appears to be searching for El Dorado: an oil market where demand is strong enough that it can increase output and prices stay above $80 per barrel," wrote Bill Weatherburn, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. "We suspect that this won't be found in 2025 either as China's demand growth will remain soft and more oil supply from non-OPEC+ producers will enter the market."

The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for other crude-exporting countries

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

New Delhi: Steel companies in the country are likely to face margin pressure in the third quarter of FY25 as muted steel prices compress spreads, according to a report by Axis Securities. The report stated that the weak demand in China and higher exports from the country have been identified as key factors behind the decline in steel prices. The report highlighted that <keyword id="24048830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-steel-exports" source="keywords">Chinese steel exports</keyword> reached 92 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) between January and October 2024, marking a 22 per cent year-on-year increase. This has led to an oversupply in the global market, weighing down prices domestically. It said "Weak Chinese domestic demand along with higher Chinese exports has led to a decline in steel prices in India. Chinese steel exports from Jan'24 to Oct'24 stood at 92 MTPA, up 22 per cent YoY" In India, the average price of hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel in the trader's market in Mumbai fell by 8 per cent year-on-year and 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 51,802 per tonne in the second quarter of FY25. Spot prices have further declined to Rs 49,000 per tonne, 5 per cent lower than the Q2FY25 average. The report also noted some signs of recovery in China's residential property sector, with increased transactions in major cities following policy measures aimed at boosting demand. However, challenges remain, as the three-month moving average of year-to-date floor space declined by 19 per cent year-on-year in September 2024, remaining in negative territory. It said "China's residential property sector is showing some signs of improvement with the transactions in major cities rising after recent policy measures introduced to boost demand". On the global front, the report noted that the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its December 2024 meeting has fallen to 58.9 per cent, down from 76.8 per cent in October 2024, owing to strong economic data from the US. Additionally, China has removed a 13 per cent export rebate on aluminum and copper, effective December 1, 2024, in response to anticipated tariff measures by the new US administration. These developments highlight the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the global and domestic steel and metals markets.

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil exports from Russia dropped to their lowest level in seven months.</li><li>Crude oil exports peaked in April and have fallen 620,000 barrels a day since.</li></ul>Russian oil exports have dropped to the lowest levels since December.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-23/russia-s-oil-exports-fall-further-to-the-lowest-in-more-than-seven-months">Bloomberg reported on Tuesday</a> that exports from Primorsk and Ust-Luga, two of the country's main ports, are down 41% in the last month and are on track to keep falling. The decline comes as Russia moves to comply with cuts agreed to by the OPEC+ oil cartel. The country plans to cut production further in the coming months to make up for producing beyond its OPEC+ quota, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/russia-plans-to-make-opec-compensation-oil-cuts-in-warm-seasons">sources told Bloomberg</a>.The Kremlin has generally complied with OPEC's guidance, and during a series of cuts in March, President Vladimir Putin <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-putin-opec-oil-us-output-cuts-competition-market-share-2024-3">backed the OPEC+'s efforts to maintain oil prices</a> but voiced worries over losing market share to the US.So far this year, Russian crude exports have fallen about 30,000 barrels a day from last year's average, and are down 620,000 barrels a day since peaking in April. The drop in exports of Russian crude oil also comes amid recent sanctions from Ukraine against Russian oil supplier Lukoil, which has diverted some oil flows to European countries like Hungary and Slovakia. Pipes to these countries would need to pass through Ukraine, and exports could rise again as the company diverts flows. Meanwhile, the UK recently sanctioned tankers that move oil from Russia, including some that are part of the country's "shadow fleet." Over 60 tankers that carry Russian crude are now sanctioned.Those sanctions are driving refiners in some countries, like <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/india-russian-crude-trade-sovcomflot-shipping-sanctioned-tankers-price-cap-2024-3">those in India</a>, to refuse deliveries of Russian oil.Sanctions on Russian energy are part of a larger effort to crimp the revenue needed to keep funding the war in Ukraine, and have escalated since the conflict began in 2022. Russia contributed to about 12% of global crude oil production in 2023, making it the third biggest crude producer in the world, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/236605/share-of-global-crude-oil-production-of-the-top-15-oil-producing-countries/">Statista</a>.

Russian oil exports drop to lowest in 7 months amid OPEC cuts and sanctions

<keyword id="19931193" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maruti-Suzuki-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maruti Suzuki India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maruti Suzuki India">Maruti Suzuki India</keyword> reported its <keyword id="20025887" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="highest-ever" source="keywords">highest-ever</keyword> <keyword id="20423741" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monthly-sales" source="keywords">monthly sales</keyword> volume at 206,434 units. Total sales in the month include <keyword id="20025843" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-sales" source="keywords">domestic sales</keyword> of 163,130 units, sales to other original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of 10,136 units and the highest-ever monthly <keyword id="19916774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports" source="keywords">exports</keyword> of 33,168 units. Festival season and on top of that the deep discounts offered by various automakers have invariably helped dealers sell more cars this October. Here is a table listing out the <keyword id="19909974" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Maruti-Suzuki" source="keywords">Maruti Suzuki</keyword> India car-wise sales figures in October: In October, total sales, domestic plus exports combined, were 3.6 per cent higher year-on-year. So far in 2024-25 - April to October, the total sales were 1.64 per cent higher year-on-year. Coming to exports, the shipments in October and April-October were 51 per cent and 17 per cent, higher year-on-year, respectively. In the fiscal year 2023-24, the company exported over 2.8 lakh units to more than 100 countries, holding a commanding 42 per cent share in the country's passenger vehicle exports. In other news, Maruti Suzuki India recently reached a significant milestone, with ist <keyword id="21943254" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Manesar-facility" source="keywords">Manesar facility</keyword> crossing the 1 crore cumulative production mark. The Manesar plant achieved this feat in just 18 years, making it the fastest among Suzuki's global automobile manufacturing facilities to reach the 1 crore production milestone. The facility, which commenced operations in October 2006, is spread over 600 acres and manufactures a range of models, including Brezza, Ertiga, XL6, Ciaz, Dzire, Wagon R, S-Presso, and Celerio. These vehicles serve both domestic and international markets, with exports reaching regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and neighboring Asian countries. Since its inception, Maruti Suzuki has produced over 3.1 crore vehicles, reinforcing its leadership in the Indian <keyword id="19945567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automotive-industry" source="keywords">automotive industry</keyword>. Maruti Suzuki India Limited also started the export of its acclaimed 'Made-in-India' SUV, the Fronx.

Maruti Suzuki India registers highest-ever monthly sales in festive-filled October

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The dollar has gained since Trump's election and his policies could boost the greenback further. </li><li>A stronger dollar could suppress global trade and complicate inflation abroad, a think tank researcher said.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed policies are likely to give the US dollar a boost during his second term, but a stronger US currency has the potential to unleash chaos in global markets, according to one think tank researcher. Michael Klein, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, wrote this week that the dollar will likely rise under Trump, despite Trump's own suggestion that he would like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">to see a weaker dollar</a> to slim the US trade deficit.That's unlikely to happen, Klein said, largely because the greenback's other currency rivals remain challenged and because Trump's policies are bullish for the dollar. "President-elect Donald Trump has a dollar problem. In recent months he has shown a clear preference for a weaker exchange rate to support the competitiveness of US exports and help reduce the US trade deficit. And yet, as the market has sensed since the US election, the much more likely outcome is that his policies end up strengthening the greenback. The risk is that the US dollar— which is expensive already — becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial stability," Klein wrote.Klein said a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-us-dollar-exchange-rate-companies-investors-inflation-interest-rates2022-7">stronger dollar</a> could be bad news for other economies around the world. Given how widely the greenback is used across financial markets, global trade could be suppressed if the dollar gains in value.Countries that find their currency devalued against the dollar, meanwhile, could have a harder time taming inflation."If and when the dollar becomes unsustainably expensive, a further problem will present itself: how to deal with an overvalued currency without risking a lot of financial dislocation," Klein said. "Without much scope for a negotiated decline in the dollar, more chaotic alternatives seem likely."Markets have already picked up on the likelihood of a stronger US currency under Trump's presidency. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a>, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, has climbed around 3% over the last month and briefly surpassed 107 on Thursday, its highest level in a year.Several of Trump's policies are supportive of a stronger US currency. Klein pointed to Trump's plans for steep tariffs, which include a 10% blanket tariff on most US imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.The US imposing tariffs on another country also tends to devalue the other country's currency, Klein added, due to traders selling the currency on foreign exchange markets. Such was the case in 2018, when Trump's trade restrictions on China led the yuan to depreciate 10% against the dollar that year, Fed data shows."More widespread tariffs on a whole range of US trading partners should therefore strengthen the dollar more broadly," Klein added.Economists have also said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Trump's tariff plan</a> could stoke higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">inflation</a> and higher interest rates, which would prop up the greenback. Trump's other policies, like his plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, could also add to price pressures, Klein said."Since boosting the US economy will create inflationary pressure, the market will expect interest rates to end up higher than they might otherwise be. The resulting combination of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy tends to lead to a stronger currency," Klein said.Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies could stoke higher prices, and maintained that he will push inflation lower during his presidency. He brought tariffs on some imports from China during his first term without a significant inflation increase, but economists say his tariff plan this time around is more wide-reaching, with a higher likelihood prices rise as a result.

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The S&amp;P 500 could see more than 20% earnings growth over the next two years, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li>The bank highlighted Trump's proposed tax cuts for corporations as an upside risk to their EPS forecast.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump's tax cuts could boost S&amp;P 500 earnings by more than 20%, Goldman Sachs said.Strategists at the investment bank predicted S&amp;P 500 earnings per share were on track to rise around 20% over the next two years. Goldman's forecast for full-year 2024 S&amp;P 500 EPS is $241. That will be followed by an 11% EPS increase in 2025, and 7% EPS increase the following year to $288 a share, Goldman said.Yet, those targets could easily be surpassed if Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10?utm_source=facebook&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=business-sf">slashes taxes</a> for corporations, the investment bank said in a note on Friday, noting that the latest election results had increased the upside potential to their forecast. "Tax reform is an upside risk. President-elect Trump has campaigned on cutting the statutory domestic corporate tax rate to 15% from its current 21%. We estimate that each 1 percentage point reduction in the statutory domestic tax rate would boost S&amp;P 500 EPS by slightly less than 1%, all else equal" the firm wrote. Trump's move to loosen regulation in the financial sector could also bring additional earnings. Stocks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">rallied sharply</a> after Trump secured his second term in office on Wednesday. Traders poured $20 billion into US stocks the day Trump's election victory was confirmed, marking the largest single-day stock-purchasing boom in five months, Bank of America said. Weekly flows to financial funds, meanwhile, hit $2.9 billion, the largest single-day inflow on record.Trump's plans to levy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">hefty tariffs,</a> though, is a risk to corporate earnings, Goldman Sachs said. Each five percentage point increase in the effective US tariff rate could reduce S&amp;P 500 EPS growth by as much as 2%. the strategists estimated. The firm pegged the odds that Trump would follow through with his 10%-20% blanket tariff on US imports at 40%."During the 2018-2019 trade conflict, companies were generally able to pass the costs of tariffs through to customers," strategists wrote, referring to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-china-trade-war-chinese-goods-2018-8">Trump's trade war</a> with China in his first term. "However, even if that dynamic were repeated, tariffs could potentially reduce earnings via weaker consumer spending, retaliatory tariffs on US exports, and increased uncertainty."Economists have flagged Trump's economic plan as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">inflationary</a> and said his policies, including his tariff plan, are likely to send <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">interest rates higher</a>.Over the long term, Goldman is calling for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">decade of lackluster returns for the S&amp;P 500</a>. That's partly due to higher interest rate expectations, strategists said in a note last month, as well as factors like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crazy-town-valuation-mania-sp500-barry-bannister-2024-11">stretched valuations</a> and high <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sp500-outlook-next-decade-forecast-david-kostin-goldman-stocks-strategist-2024-11">market concentration</a>.

Trump's tax cuts could boost S&P 500 earnings by 20% over the next 2 years, Goldman Sachs says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Short-sellers betting against renewable energy stocks made $1.3 billion since Trump's win, Bloomberg reported. </li><li>Trump is expected to roll back many of the Biden administration's climate programs.</li></ul>It was a tough week for clean energy stocks after Donald Trump clinched the presidential election, but for the short sellers betting against them, the gains have been impressive. Traders betting against renewables have gains on paper of around $1.3 billion since Trump's win sent stocks in the sector tumbling, according to Bloomberg.Among the most-shorted renewable names are shares of Plug Power, SolarEdge Technologies, and Enphase Energy, which have each seen declines of over 24% since market close on Tuesday. First Solar and Bloom Energy have also been popular targets for short-sellers, and have lost around 11% and 3% since Tuesday.The renewables selloff comes after Trump won the US presidential election earlier this week.Trump, who frequently used the slogan "drill, baby, drill" while on the campaign trail, is expected to roll back many of the Biden administration's clean energy initiatives. In particular, Trump has long been critical of the Inflation Reduction Act's billions of dollars toward solar and wind subsidies.Trump could also slash subsidies for electric vehicles and manufacturing EV batteries in the US, which has led EV makers' stocks to tumble (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-win-elon-musk-election-tsla-2024-11">excluding Tesla</a>, which is headed by key Trump ally Elon Musk and is expected to benefit from the former president's return to the White House).Trump is also expected to pull out of the Paris Agreement again, which would remove the US from worldwide climate diplomacy talks with Europe and China.Trump has also promised to make it easier to develop energy infrastructure. In the spring, he asked top oil executives for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-asked-oil-execs-for-1bn-2024?utm_source=Iterable&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=campaign_BI%20Sustainability,%20November%207,%202024">$1 billion contribution</a> to his campaign in exchange for dismantling Biden's environmental policies, handing out more drilling leases, and expediting permits for new liquefied natural gas exports, according to a report from the Washington Post.

Traders betting against clean energy stocks have made $1.3 billion since Trump's election win

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's exports in May blew past estimates, rising 7.6% year over year in dollar terms.</li><li>It showcases Beijing's growing dependence on foreign buyers to support its growth.</li></ul>Chinese exports jumped above forecasts in May as the second-largest economy leans more and more on foreign markets to boost growth.But as Beijing unloads its products on the world, it's turning up the heat on trade tensions.In dollar terms, exports rose 7.6% year over year, surpassing 6% estimates among economists polled by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-may-exports-pick-up-pace-top-forecast-boost-economic-recovery-2024-06-07/">Reuters</a>. According to customs data from Friday, that's the second month of accelerated growth.At the same time, import data was lackluster, and withdrawn Chinese consumption has been a headwind so persistent that China is the sole country undergoing deflation.For an economy increasingly needing alternatives to domestic consumers, Beijing is pinning its hopes for economic growth on foreign buyers. Friday's data suggests that technology products are boosting China's exports, resulting from the country's growing emphasis on advanced manufacturing.That's not a welcome development for international competitors, however. With Chinese tech and green energy goods <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/solar-panel-oversupply-price-crash-europe-production-plant-meyer-burger-2024-1?_gl=1*1r1so1q*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxODAyMDc3Mi4zMDYuMS4xNzE4MDIxMDI3LjYwLjAuMA..">sweeping foreign producers away</a>, both the US and European Union have responded with trade barriers.Last month, President Joe Biden announced fresh tariffs against Beijing's advanced products, including quadrupling the duties on Chinese electric vehicles. Last week, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/solar-panel-supply-tariffs-southeast-asia-china-imports-producers-prices-2024-6">tariffs resumed on Chinese-made solar panels</a> coming through Southeast Asia after a brief moratorium.As the Republican candidate, Donald Trump has meanwhile pledged even steeper protectionist policies, vowing to apply 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.Analysts have been warning that no matter which US presidential candidate is elected in November, China's dependence on international markets is sure to spark a trade war. This could happen as soon as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-trade-war-exports-manufacturing-growth-property-crisis-solar-2024-3">next year</a>, China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller said.Although one already took place prior to the pandemic, Beijing's manufacturing output has only grown since — a Capital Economics note said in March that China could no longer lean on smaller countries to absorb its product."China's exporters are probably more reliant now on US consumers than they were when the trade war began during Donald Trump's first term," the group chief economist, Neil Shearing, wrote.

China's explosive export growth could make trade tensions with America even worse 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chinese markets rose after Trump's US election victory, despite tariff threats.</li><li>The markets boost comes as China is reportedly considering a $1.4 trillion debt plan.</li></ul>China's stock markets climbed higher on Thursday following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election.The rise comes despite campaign pledges from Trump, a China hawk, to slap <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">a 10% blanket tariff</a> on all imported goods. He has threatened tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods.On Thursday, China shares rose with the benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI 300 Index,</a> closing 3% higher. Hong Kong's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/hang_seng">Hang Seng Index</a> closed 2% up.Market sentiment was buoyant amid hopes for news of a stimulus plan from the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress' going meeting, which ends on Friday."The odds for a larger policy support package will rise somewhat with a Trump victory," wrote Lynn Song, the chief economist for Greater China at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-does-trump-mean-for-china-ot/">ING bank,</a> on Wednesday.China's top legislative body is considering a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to fund a part of an economic rescue package, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported last week, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.Thursday's optimism in the Chinese markets contrasted with lackluster performance in Japan and South Korea, where the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/kospi">Kospi Index</a> ended the day little changed.Analysts are also watching to see if Beijing will devalue the Chinese yuan now that Trump has won."Beijing might look to devalue the yuan as they did in 2018-2019 to counter tariff effects and boost export competitiveness," wrote Dilin Wu, a research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone, on Wednesday.However, this risks inflation and capital outflows in China, she added. The country is facing multiple economic challenges amid a real-estate crisis and high youth unemployment.On Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://camlmac.pbc.gov.cn/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125217/125925/5499916/index.html">China</a> lowered its daily reference rate for the yuan to the lowest since late 2023.<h2 id="6256c5a9-f87f-4923-8fc5-278ad2fd51e1">China is preparing for Trump for 2.0 but still lacks leverage</h2>Despite the market optimism in China, analysts say Beijing could face a tough trade landscape."I think the challenge here is that China is still at a structural disadvantage in a trade war because they lack the symmetrical space," said Rick Waters, the managing director of Eurasia Group's China practice, at a press briefing on Thursday about the global implications of the US elections."They lack the ability to put tariffs on the US when the US does that to them," added Waters, who was the US State Department's top China policy official under the Biden administration.In Trump's first term, the US and China slapped retaliatory tariffs on each other. But Beijing is now left with "very little" to work with.However, over the last four years, Waters said Beijing has developed a framework of sanctions for individuals and companies that align with US policies that are anathema to China's interests. The moves include more export controls, including for critical minerals and rare earths."The first trade war was a game changer; many companies were caught off guard, and investors were left scrambling," wrote ING's Song."This time around, Trump's proposed tariffs have been in consideration for some time and should come as no major surprise," he added.

As Trump threatens tariffs on China, the Chinese market pins its hopes on a massive stimulus announcement

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks had a day to remember after Donald Trump won back the White House.</li><li>Market veteran David Kelly believes Wall Street is overlooking a key economic risk.</li></ul>Markets are celebrating <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump's election as president</a>, though the leading strategist at JPMorgan's multi-trillion asset management arm is not in the mood to party.US stocks had one of their best days in years and hit new records after Trump's resounding win over Kamala Harris in Tuesday's election. The S&amp;P 500, the growth-heavy Nasdaq Composite, and the small-cap heavy Russell 2000 rocketed between 2.5% and 5.8% higher on Wednesday.That broad-based equity rally didn't include bonds, which got shelled on Wednesday. Yields, which move inversely to bond prices, vaulted higher for US Treasuries across durations.Both of those moves make sense, said David Kelly, the global strategy chief at JPMorgan Asset Management, in an interview on Wednesday."If you have a Republican sweep, then Donald Trump can push through <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10#big--and-small-business-owners">whatever tax bill he wants to in 2025</a>, pretty much," Kelly said. "There is potential for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-proposal-lower-corporate-tax-rate-15">significant tax cuts</a>, and we know that has such a direct impact on corporate earnings — after-tax corporate earnings — that that is, logically, very positive for the stock market."But while Wall Street might cheer those tax breaks, Kelly warned that they could lead to higher inflation, one of Democrats' liabilities in this election cycle.Corporate tax cuts could have consequences, in Kelly's view, as he said they'd cause inflation to rise alongside the US national debt burden. That would be a major headwind for bonds, and stocks might also get dragged down.<h2 id="9ce813f5-aaa4-4439-aa03-ba3a4736747d">Tariffs could be a terrible outcome for stocks</h2>If one of Kelly's highest convictions hunches is correct, this market rally is in trouble anyway.The strategy chief has been adamant that higher tariffs — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">one of Trump's key proposals</a> — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">would cripple the US economy</a> and endanger the global economic expansion."Tariffs are not a good idea," Kelly said at a late-October press event hosted by JPMAM. "It's kind of like a nuclear threat — the whole point is, if you actually end up using it, you kind of screwed up somewhere."Most economists condemn tariffs, which are taxes on imports, because they tend to lead to higher prices and lower economic growth. Kelly has said he'd have to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">increase his inflation target and slash his long-term growth outlook</a> if Trump followed through on his tariff proposals, given that they'd almost certainly prompt counter-tariffs that would hurt US exporters as well."Retaliatory tariffs hurt growth in both countries and push up inflation in both countries," Kelly recently said. "They're actually sort of the magic stagflation elixir. There are very few things that will actually give you a stagflationary impulse, which both slows growth and increases inflation."A global trade war is a frightening possibility that now seems increasingly realistic. Paraphrasing Mahatma Gandhi, Kelly said that "a tariff for a tariff will make the whole world poor."On the campaign trail, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work">Trump teased aggressive tariffs</a>: a 60% tax on Chinese goods and as much as a 20% upcharge on all other imports. When asked whether there was any chance that those proposals could be effective, the strategy chief had a simple answer that he didn't hedge."No," Kelly said. "I'm not trying to be political at all. I thought this was consensus, actually. I thought the biggest people in favor of free trade was the Republican party."Kelly later added: "I challenge anybody to show me a long-term study which shows that tariffs actually do promote stronger economic growth or stronger job growth domestically because I've never seen it."<h2 id="15c4690f-5250-4143-8288-a419b887c658">Why tariffs should be taken with a grain of salt</h2>Although Kelly is far from alone in his antipathy to tariffs, it's worth noting that most of his counterparts are much less concerned about that part of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">Trump's economic agenda</a>.One exception is Tom Orlik of Bloomberg Economics, who's firmly in Kelly's camp. The economist said at a conference his firm hosted in early October that Trump's tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy"</a> by throttling growth and sparking inflation.But Chris Murphy, Susquehanna's cohead of derivatives strategy and a copanelist with Orlik, reasoned that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">Trump could always back away from tariffs</a> if the market reacted poorly to his proposals. Besides, Wall Street is far from frightened right now.Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, made a similar point in a recent interview with Business Insider when asked about Trump's tariffs and Kelly's stance."Often with Trump, the rhetoric and reality are not the same," Gallagher said. He added: "I don't know if all this rhetoric is going to match what's going to actually happen."The small-cap maven described himself as a free-market aficionado who's generally opposed to tariffs, including the ones that Trump outlined during his campaign. He said he'd prefer to avoid them, and he ventured that most Americans probably feel the same way.Ultimately, Gallagher thinks there will be some tariffs, though they may be more tempered than what Trump has floated. Inflation is a key reason Trump won, and he shouldn't forget that."We have to think about all the knock-on effects of tariffs, and his economic team will have to think about that as well," Gallagher said. "Trump's going to have to be, rightly, concerned about inflation. He's been talking about it too, how inflation's been a problem."Gallagher concluded: "We don't want to reignite inflation. I don't think anybody's for that."

A top mind at JPMorgan Asset Management sounds the alarm about an obvious economic red flag after Trump's resounding win, even as US stocks soar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election sent Chinese shares lower on fears of upcoming tariffs.</li><li>Hong Kong's major index saw especially deep losses.</li></ul>Chinese markets aren't celebrating Trump's presidential win.Hong Kong absorbed most of the fallout, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises index dropping 2.6% on Wednesday. China's CSI 300 slid 0.5% after declining as much as 1% at intraday lows.Wednesday's sell-off reflects heightened fear that global trade relations with the US could turn sour in Trump's second term. Analysts have warned of impending <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">trade wars</a> if the president-elect fulfills his promise to implement universal tariffs, pledging 60% duties on Chinese exports."We believe that tariffs are the most potentially consequential policy from an economic perspective," UBS wrote in a note Wednesday. "The mooted 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from the rest of the world could make much of US-China trade unviable, reduce US domestic demand and corporate profits, and lead to lower GDP growth around the world, particularly in China."This fresh uncertainty also weighed on international currencies. China's offshore yuan notched its largest one-day drop since October 2022, falling as much as 1.3% against the US dollar.Still, the impact on China's mainland stock market was mute compared to its Hong Kong counterpart as investors awaited an expected stimulus boost on Friday.Bank of America expects Beijing to announce 6 trillion worth of yuan in bond issuance over three years to swap local government debt. If so, this would signal more willingness by the central government to take on more fiscal responsibility, analysts wrote on Tuesday — a "welcoming gesture" for markets.

You Searched For "Exports" and got 12 results

The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for other crude-exporting countries

Filip De Mott

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

BI India Bureau

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

ANI

Russian oil exports drop to lowest in 7 months amid OPEC cuts and sanctions

Kelly Cloonan

Maruti Suzuki India registers highest-ever monthly sales in festive-filled October

ANI

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

Jennifer Sor

Trump's tax cuts could boost S&P 500 earnings by 20% over the next 2 years, Goldman Sachs says

Jennifer Sor

Traders betting against clean energy stocks have made $1.3 billion since Trump's election win

Kelly Cloonan

China's explosive export growth could make trade tensions with America even worse

Filip De Mott

As Trump threatens tariffs on China, the Chinese market pins its hopes on a massive stimulus announcement

Huileng Tan

A top mind at JPMorgan Asset Management sounds the alarm about an obvious economic red flag after Trump's resounding win, even as US stocks soar

James Faris

Chinese stocks drop as Trump's presidency spells more tariff risk

Filip De Mott

Popular Keywords

Buying Guides